LSU is Your National Champion

1. Louisiana State (+4)
2. Georgia (-1)
3. Southern California (+1)
4. Missouri (+8)
5. West Virginia (+11)
6. Kansas (+4)
7. Auburn (+4)
8. Oklahoma (-5)
9. Tennessee (+4)
10. Virginia Tech (-4)
11. Ohio State (-9)
12. Michigan (+5)
13. Florida (-6)
14. Texas (NR)
15. Cincinnati (-9)
16. Illinois (-8)
17. Arizona State (-8)
18. Brigham Young (+1)
19. Boston College (+3)
20. Oregon (NR)
21. Oregon State (NR)
22. Penn State (+3)
23. Mississippi State (NR)
24. Clemson (-4)
25. Texas Tech (NR)

Just as I said way back when, the Bayou Bengals get it done! Their thirty-one point run was the difference, coupled with two killer OSU plays (the dropped TD pass and the roughing the punter), which obscured a banner night for Beanie Wells. Despite a 10-0 lead, Ohio State played an atrocious second quarter that bled a bit too far into the third. Even without their All-America safety, LSU's defense, whilst bending a bit, garnered sacks at key times and did not muff INT opportunities.

I offered that the SEC champs needed a two-touchdown victory to merit the title, and they got it.

You Can Argue Against Ohio State...

but can you truly argue for anyone else?

Some have complained quietly and not-so quietly that Ohio State does not deserve to take the field in Monday's BCS Championship Game in N'Orleans. Colin Cowherd, an interesting host on ESPN Radio, made a good point about how the system loses when teams get rewarded for playing inferior competition. So, let's get a few things out of the way.

1) OSU played a Division I-AA or subdivision school in the form of Youngstown State, inexcusable, no doubt about it, which is why this game doesn't count in the BCS.

2) The Buckeyes toughest non-conference game, in a slate that included Akron, was a mid-afternoon tilt in Seattle, a team that could not defeat Hawaii and finished well off the pace in the Pac-10. Here is the dirty little secret: few in Columbus thought 2007 was a title-aspiring year, knowing that Troy Smith and others were on the way out, and, importantly, knowing odd-years mean trips to State College and Ann Arbor. Yes, I can fall under the label of "Buckeye homer" but I maintain you must grade OSU's schedule differently in odd-numbered years.

3) Ohio State lost AT HOME to a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog and second-place team in their conference that failed to defeat a weak Iowa team earlier in the year. It was only the self-destructive qualities of the Illini against Michigan that cost the Zookers a share of the conference crown.

In almost any other year, save perhaps 1990, this resume is nowhere near good enough to play for a title. Consider that in 2002 the Bucks defeated a quality opponent in Texas Tech, the co-Pac 10 champion (Wazzu State), in addition to their full Big 10 slate, net, 13-0. Last year they beat defending national champion Texas in Austin, plus #2 Michigan to close the season, net, 12-0. Ok, 2007 clearly doesn't measure up, and the home loss reeks of 1998, so we have made that clear. On the other hand?

In ascending order of merit, with final verdict*:

HAWAII (pre-Sugar Bowl embarrassment): Yes, Michigan could've played them, and yes, they head to Gainesville next season, so what. Their second-best win of the year was by seven, at home, to a less-healthy Washington team that Ohio State beat by nineteen in the Northwest. Are you going to tell me Boise State, again at home, is a better win than Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State? Did anyone play an easier schedule? ANYONE? If you pick this undefeated team you're also buying Tulane '98 over Florida State or even Boise State '06 over Florida.

VERDICT: Hell no. The question is whether the Rainbow Warriors even deserved a Top 25 ranking.

KANSAS (pre-Orange Bowl win): When a team played a significantly weaker strength of schedule than Ohio State, well, that doesn't say much for its chances. No Oklahoma, no Texas. They did beat Colorado in Boulder, but in their ONE huge game of the season they got smacked around by Missouri, and that was closer to a home game than a roadie. It was a better loss than OSU's, but the Buckeyes wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are better than KU's three best regular season wins.

VERDICT: Beat the teams it should, lost to the one it could have beat, did not schedule an OOC game even on the level of OSU/WSH, a firm no.

WEST VIRGINIA (pre-Fiesta Bowl domination): Let's begin by saying their non-conference schedule did include a game against the SEC. Good. Yet, the disappearance of South Florida from the national picture really hurts them here, the Bulls didn't even come close to the conference crown after reaching #2 in the polls at one point. And after a severe thrashing of UCONN the week prior, a 9-13 "L" at the hands of a non-bowl Pittsburgh team, AT HOME, requires a word stronger than "choke" and I have none for the occasion. Once again, two losses, and the last one much worse than Ohio State's and Oklahoma's to Colorado.

VERDICT: No team since Oklahoma '01 soiled themselves at a more inopportune time and I don't care if Patrick White had to leave the game, they only needed ONE MORE TOUCHDOWN!!!, an easy no.

VIRGINIA TECH (pre-Orange Bowl loss): Really? You're telling me the ACC is that much rougher than the Big 10, honestly? And do teams that lose 7-45, even if on the road to the eventual #2, deserve title shots? Ohio State lost by seven, in a game influenced by a terrible non-fumble in the first quarter, and never felt threatened deep into the fourth in any of their other games. Furthermore, the Hokies choked at home against Matt Ryan and the Golden Eagles, or they would have likely earned a rematch against LSU.

VERDICT: No, but credit to playing LSU at Tiger Stadium, yet you need to do better than a thirty-eight point loss, and while this season you could lose at home, to do so AND get blown out of the road, no, irrespective of the computers.

OKLAHOMA (pre-Fiesta Bowl calamity): I love the two wins over Missouri, even before the Tigers shredded Arkansas, Texas wasn't terrible this year either. On the other hand, while we can paper over the loss in Lubbock due to Sam Bradford's concussion (maybe), what do we say of the debacle in Boulder? Did you see Colorado in a bowl game this season? This also wasn't an out of conference tilt, but a non-division game, played against a struggling program. Bottom line: a worse loss than OSU's to Illinois and the extra loss kills their candidacy.

VERDICT: Close, but no. Two losses, neither to a team playing in a major bowl game is just not going to get it done, 24-7 in Boulder, boys, 24-7 in Boulder.

MISSOURI (pre-Cotton Bowl triumph): I love the SEC and Big 10 OOC tilts, especially since the Big 10 team DID beat Ohio State. Two losses stings but both were to OU--and they beat Kansas on neutral/unfriendly ground. I guess there is one way to answer this, if the Bucks drew the Sooners in Norman and in San Antonio, could they win either game? The odds are reasonable, but the late loss (decisively too) is the difference.

VERDICT: Very close, but no. Excellent resume, just needed a split with OU and couldn't get it.

GEORGIA (pre-Sugar Bowl walloping): I had them #1 before their bowl game and they didn't disappoint, perhaps the hottest team in America and the only one to convincingly defeat Florida. Still, South Carolina, as noted before in this space, did them no favors late in the year, and the atrocious performance in Knoxville killed their title hopes. A win over the Vols would have drawn them LSU and possibly given them another huge win. Also, despite the powerful SEC, no nice OOC win (Tempe comes next autumn), and no division title.

VERDICT: Toss-up, would they beat OSU? Yes. Does that erase the stigma of a 0-35 deficit to Tennessee and a home loss to a conference foe that collapsed? Georgia Tech fell away too, give me the Bucks, no for the Dawgs.

USC (pre-Rose Bowl smashing): Let's make one thing clear, if they beat Stanford, no one has a problem with their title game presence, only question is whether OSU or LSU plays them. The loss to Oregon in Eugene to a healthy Dennis Dixon, once a Heisman frontrunner, is better than any of the other losses in consideration. Although Cal disappeared, the Pac-10 still had a good year, and the Trojans went 5-1 on the road to include the always rowdy Sun Devil Stadium. Notre Dame didn't help them, though. You have to love Coach Pete Carroll's fearlessness (okay, maybe not in the case of Idaho--but look at 2008) and the six road games. The enormous question: does a team that would likely take Ohio State still deserve to jump them with a FORTY-POINT FAVORED HOME LOSS TO A NON-BOWL TEAM A WEEK PRIOR TO PLAYING ANOTHER NON-BOWL TEAM? In other words, Michigan may have looked ahead to Oregon whilst playing Appy State, what was Troy's excuse???

VERDICT: Stanford beat a deflated Cal, yet did nothing else the rest of the year, to include losing to an Irish team that fell AT HOME to Air Force and (gasp) Navy. I don't care if John David Booty's finger or injuries and inexperience permitted a BACK-UP QB to hit multiple fourth-down passes to end it 24-23, Cardinal--in the COLISEUM!!! I'm sorry, you are a bona fide dynasty, but the Stanford loss coupled with a tough one at Autzen doesn't give you much of an argument, even if a better one than anyone else.

Conclusions...

Hawaii, Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma clearly lose the argument, at least to my mind. Missouri, Georgia, and USC do have a case, but for reasons aforementioned it is not a particularly good one, even for the latter two schools. In fact, USC '02 had a better argument against OSU '02, due to two close road losses to two very good teams in a vicious schedule to include a good Notre Dame team, then in the present.

Everyone had holes this year, no major school went undefeated and no major school with one-loss had a better track-record than Ohio State. Are some two loss schools better? Yes, perhaps one, perhaps three, perhaps five, did ANY of them clearly earn the bid over the Bucks?

The fair-minded would say, no. Put simply, Ohio State could not have chosen a better year to lose a home game, not in the past and realistically not in the future. Virginia Tech, Georgia, and USC all lost home games plus a road game. It was the most remarkable year at the top, in terms of chaos, we are likely to ever see. But who knows, truly, what 2008 will bring?

*LSU was not considered because folks view them as the de facto #1 team by way of their favored status over Ohio State and because they only rank below the Buckeyes because they lost their second game later, and again in triple overtime, even if AT HOME.

And Your 2008 National Champs Are...

Last year, on a now-defunct blog, I boldly predicted, before their dismantling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, the 2007 national champion: LSU. I picked the Bayou Bengals irrespective of projected first-round draft choice losses to include their star quarterback due to a perceived friendly schedule buttressed by a virtual home-game in the BCS Championship.

Looking pretty good right about now. Yes, it took some resistance to the massive, heavily-overblown hype emanating from Los Angeles, but I stuck to my guns, and even predicted a two-loss season for the USC Trojans. Also, correct. Obviously, I didn't foresee two losses for the Tigers, particularly the last one, at home, to Arkansas, but this season proved the one for such a resume. Now, for all my USC criticism, I actually like them quite a bit next season, provided they beat the Buckeyes in a huge September game at the Coliseum.

All of the rough roadies (Eugene, Tempe) are home games and if Notre Dame has improved at all, that one is also in Los Angeles. Arizona State might improve some more, Oregon is headed for a fall, NO ONE should trust California, Washington will get better, Oregon State never starts out quickly enough, and it's very hard to see another 8-1 team in the Pac-10. Stanford? Jim Harbaugh's team will likely make strides too, but if they finish 6-3 in conference play, well, he should win Coach of the Year honors.

Mark Sanchez, now a little older (presumably, he stays heathly) emerges as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate to battle Ohio State's Chris Wells and of course the defending champion from Gainesville, plus the prodigious depth and newfound experience of their wide receivers. I would expect the defense, whilst losing some key players, to continue to have little trouble in conference play and likely with Todd Boeckman (unless the latter comes up big in the Not Sugar).

Their Road to the Not Orange (along with RT2020 spread):

@ Virginia (-13)
v. Ohio State (-9)
@ Oregon State (-5)
v. Oregon (-18)
v. Arizona State (-14)
@ Washington State (-20)
@ Arizona (-14)
v. Washington (-4)
v. California (-21)
@ Stanford (-20)
v. Notre Dame (-24)
@ UCLA (-13)

A solid favorite in every matchup, pending, once again, the result of Ohio State's game against LSU. If the Buckeyes win, that game in LA is a toss up, if not slightly more than a touchdown. I actually think U-Dub, with Locker a year older, could pose the most significant threat, particularly because USC might overlook them if California is off to a nice start. Their first three tilts, however, are brutal. USC's last trip to Corvallis ended with a loss, but I can easily see the Trojans still winning comfortably. Once more, six road clashes, which we should commend, but not as unruly as 2007 (even if NEB and ND fell on their faces). After smashing Illinois, they will have a haunting memory of the Stanford game that cost them a chance to beat Ohio State... unless of course all the media outlets again go gaga over this team and project them to beat 1995 Nebraska.

Twelve-and-oh, mark it down. So, who will they play? A rematch with Ohio State is not out of the question (the Bucks host both Penn State and Michigan), if the game is close and the Big 10 fields at least one other ten-win team. I don't think so, however, as I think the other slot to the Orange is coming out of the SEC (of course).

And that team is the one with the best player and the best coach in America.

The Gator Slate:

v. Hawaii (-27)
v. Miami (-30)
@ Tennessee (-10)
v. Ole Miss (-31)
@ Arkansas (-24)
v. LSU (-13)
v. Kentucky (-30)
n. Georgia (-3)
@ Vanderbilt (-21)
v. South Carolina (-7)
v. Citadel (-45)
@ Florida State (-27)
n. Auburn (-17, projected SEC West opponent in Atlanta)

Hurrah, no Auburn! And just four road games. The early test in Knoxville should tell the tale. Tennessee, utterly trashed by #15 in 2007, will show some pride next season--but I'm not persuaded that the Vols, ten years removed from their last conference championship, are good enough to beat Florida. The Gators will have a more experienced defense, a better Percy Harvin, and perhaps (finally) a true running back to take some pressure off Tebow. Sans Colt Brennan, even a Rainbow Warrior team that clips Georgia will have no chance at the Swamp. The battle with Georgia will determine control of the SEC East and perhaps the national title race, which will hinge on whether the Gator defense has stiffened enough not to allow Georgia's sensational sophomore tailback, echoes of Walker and Hearst, to run through them again. LSU will drop, UK will plummet, good year to play Miami, but watch out for the crafty OBC late in the year. The Citadel game, alone, gives USC's schedule a big edge, and the absence of Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama leave this slate highly likely to finish with nary a blemish.

Thirteen-and-oh, and at least another NYC trip for Tim Tebow. Barring a total calamity in the Capital One, I will place Florida at #1 in the 2008 preseason poll, if this blog runs that far. It is possible even a loss to Georgia, provided the Dawgs fall twice in the SEC, wouldn't keep Florida out of their first Orange Bowl since 2001. Seven years prior to next season, in Steve Spurrier's last campaign, the Mighty Gators also opened at #1, and as mentioned previously, no Auburn to ruin things... at least not until Championship Saturday.

Bottom line: Unless the Superhero QB goes down for an extended time in at least one game, this team has 70/30 odds to run the table and perhaps 80/20 to reach Miami. FLA's offense will rate as the country's best, which means an improved D will only need to keep one team (UGA) below twenty-four. Given the coaching abilities of Meyer, his team should complete just the second undefeated SEC run since 1998 (Auburn, of course, 2004).

So, Florida #1, USC #2, what about anyone else? Or is this a reprisal of 2004-05, when the top two team stayed 1-2 all season long? We briefly referenced Georgia as perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Gators, what of their schedule?

v. Georgia Southern (-31)
v. Central Michigan (-24)
@ South Carolina (Even)
@ Arizona State!!! (-3)
v. Alabama (-8)
Bye
v. Tennessee (-14)
v. Vanderbilt (-21)
@ LSU (Even)
n. Florida (+3)
@ Kentucky (-30)
@ Auburn (Even)
Bye
v. Georgia Tech (-17)

At first glance, too difficult. How about that two-week quinella of Columbia and Tempe? Yikes. The game with SoCaro, especially since the OBC rolled into town, is always a vicious contest with few touchdowns. I suspect ASU will drop off, but I maintain winning on the road, presumably this one will take place under the lights, in Sun Devil Stadium is one the toughest tests for any team, Pac-10 or otherwise. Then come Alabama and a revenge match against the Vols. After a semi-breather against Vandy (don't get caught looking ahead!) the monster showdowns occur at the Rouge and J'ville. If that wasn't enough, Auburn lurks toward the end. Verdict: 10-2 if they're lucky, but a win over Florida would likely send them to Atlanta so long as they lost only one SEC contest. Unless the defense truly raises their level of play and they can get consistent play from signal-caller Matt Stafford, not a viable championship game threat, though probably a return trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Top 5 ranking in the final Bowl Championship Series.

Oklahoma? Yes, a real threat, and a bit of a break in not seeing Missouri in the regular season--even though the Sooners own them for all intents and purposes. I cannot find their complete schedule, but a 12-1 season is well within reach, possibly more if Sam Bradford continues his improvement.

Finally, a dark horse candidate in Morgantown, especially if Terry Bowden ends up the next coach at West Virginia. If Steve Slaton and Patrick White remain, plus Noel Devine, don't but it past the new boss. Remember Auburn '93? Then-new coach Bowden rode Patrick Nix, Stephen Davis, and Frank Sanders to an 11-0 mark punctuated by enormous wins over Florida (the SEC champ) and Alabama (bitter rival and SEC West champ) despite probation. He could do it again. The biggest problem is Auburn, the first game for the Mountaineers of 2008. The entire schedule does look inviting, with a possible danger in Boulder. A dark horse, but with the right coach, a threat nonetheless.

Super-Early Top 5:

1. Florida (14-0)
2. Southern California (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (13-1)
4. Georgia (11-3)
5. Ohio State (11-2)

BCS Championship: #1 Florida v. #2 USC = FLA 41 USC 28
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma v. Georgia (at-large) = OU 19 UGA 7
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia = VT 31 WVA 24
Fiesta Bowl: Illinois (at-large) v. Missouri (at-large) = ILL 21 MIZZ 10
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Arizona State (at-large) = OSU 24 ASU 23

Super-Early Top 5 Heisman:

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (if 13-0, will not be denied a second trophy)
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (chance if UGA beats FLA)
3. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State (needs huge game at USC)
4. Patrick White, QB, West Virginia (last chance for WVA to fulfill promise)
5. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (your 2009 winner?)

A Stroll Down Memory Lane

Before I self-flagellate, a little crow about my parlay of the year: Oregon, to beat USC, and NOT to rank in the final poll. At #2 in the BCS just weeks ago, it looked like another foolish pick. Alas, not so fast my friend...

The exercise: a preseason poll and how it measured up...

BOLD: indicates a sincere tip of the hat.

1. Louisiana State (5)

Analysis: O, how I loved thee all through the campaign, yet you lost my heart against the Hogs and didn't get it back. Both losses were not good.

Judgment: Slightly overrated, -4 performance

2. Michigan (17)

Analysis: Actually, given their 6-1 Big Ten start, not so bad. Riiight. The 7-39 stinkbomb against Oregon and the half-hearted effort in Madison will still not likely prove as memorable as a loss to Appalachian State.

Judgment: Significantly overrated, -15 performance

3. Texas (NR)

Analysis: I'm officially off the Mack Brown bandwagon, the program ran on fumes for a time without Vince Young but the parade of Big 12 losses to mediocre teams has become quite disturbing.

Judgment: Awful, < -23 performance

4. Florida (7)

Analysis: Knew Tebow would be good, knew the Gators had one of the best coaches, didn't think Auburn would get them again. Had them losing to LSU though, but not to Georgia.

Judgment: Slightly overrated, -3 performance

5. Southern California (4)

Analysis: My 10-2 forecast (nailed ORE game, as for that NEB game, err...) proved remarkably prescient. I never bought the hype. Rose Bowl? Yes, but nothing more.

Judgment: Dead on, +1 performance

6. Wisconsin (14)

Analysis: They figured to lose one to either Michigan or Ohio State, but getting housed by PSU even at Beaver Stadium was terrible. P. J. Hill didn't become a Heisman threat and the defense got gouged by Beanie and the Bucks.

Judgment: Overrated, -8 performance

7. West Virginia (16)

Analysis: Goodbye to all that, part deux. The worst home loss in school history, still, got the Big East champion part right.

Judgment: Overrated, -9 performance

8. Florida State (NR)

Analysis: They upset then-#2 BC, and, let's just move right along...

Judgment: Awful, < -18 performance

9. Georgia (1)

Analysis: Had the 10-2 record, didn't quite foresee just how formidable a two-loss team would prove this year. Missed the Florida game, too.

Judgment: Underrated, +8 performance

10. UCLA (NR)
11. Nebraska (NR)
12. Louisville (NR)

Analysis: Twenty returning starters didn't work out too well, Sam Keller never became a Heisman threat, and Brian Brohm was let down by everyone, coaches included.

Judgment: Awful, awful, and awful. < -15, < -14, < -13, respectively

13. Oklahoma (3)

Analysis: Didn't buy Bradford, do now. Didn't think much of a team that failed to conquer Boise State, thought Texas was better (oops)

Judgment: Significantly underrated, +10 performance

14. Rutgers (NR)

Analysis: Just never played with consistency, wiped out South Florida and then got dropped by Maryland. Ray Rice didn't capitalize on his team's 2006 season.

Judgment: Significantly overrated, < -11 performance

15. Penn State (25)

Analysis: Allowed OSU to run them off the field, failed to score a TD at Michigan, and closed with an ugly collapse against Sparty. More mediocrity for JoePa.

Judgment: Significantly overrated, -10 performance

16. Tennessee (13)

Analysis: Didn't see them winning the SEC East, but pretty much nailed their performance against Florida. Looked awful in Tuscaloosa, though.

Judgment: Slightly underrated, +3 performance

17. Virginia Tech (6)

Analysis: Knew LSU game was an "L," but like UGA, didn't see a two-loss team this impressive, also didn't see a conference title, oops.

Judgment: Significantly underrated, +11 performance

18. Ohio State (2)

Analysis: Well, forecast 3-4 losses. They dropped one. Third straight "odd year" with a BCS Bowl appearance. Rebuilding? Ha!

Judgment: Significantly underrated, +16 performance

19. Boise State (NR)

Analysis: Thought they would only lose once, dropped two games. Disappointing loss to Hawaii, too. Still, a good year.

Judgment: Overrated, < -6 performance

20. South Carolina (NR)

Analysis: Missed the early rise, didn't think their collapse would prove as bad. Nailed the LSU loss and UK win, expected more though from the Old Ball Coach.

Judgment: Overrated, < -5 performance

21. California (NR)

Analysis: Curiously low for August, yet a lot better than most. This team stood one score away from #1 at one time, won at Autzen, but completely fell apart down the stretch, my goodness, they lost to STANFORD!!!

Judgment: Slightly overrated, < -4 performance

22. Auburn (13)

Analysis: Didn't see win in Gainesville coming, yet believed second in SEC firmly possible.

Judgment: Underrated, +9 performance

23. Oregon State (NR)

Analysis: Hell, the pollsters have them about here. I bought early but a few eye-opening losses caused my exodus from the bandwagon, team failed to capitalize on ten-win momentum from 2006.

Judgment: Dead on, -2 performance

24. Arkansas (15)

Analysis: Never saw a win at Baton Rouge, but thought D-Mac could keep them in the race for #2 in the West. The defeat at the hands of UK, mind you, was not a good one.

Judgment: Underrated, -9 performance

25. Miami (FL) (NR)

Analysis: Drank too much Randy Shannon Kool-Aid, 0-48 drubbing by Virginia.

Judgment: Awful, < -1 performance (awful because team isn't in Top 40)

BIGGEST HITS:

LSU, FLORIDA, USC, TENNESSEE, PENN STATE, and OREGON STATE

COLOSSAL MISFIRES:

MICHIGAN, TEXAS, FLORIDA STATE, UCLA, NEBRASKA, LOUISVILLE, and MIAMI (FL)

Finally...

HIGHEST FINAL POLL TEAMS NOT RANKED IN AUGUST

8. Illinois - Bandwagoneer for '08, Iowa loss notwithstanding
9. Arizona State - Great season for Denny-E
10. Kansas - Reesing, but didn't play anyone
12. Missouri - Finally played to expectations
18. Virginia - won more than fair share of close ones

BEST CALL: USC, specified two losses (1-2 on those games)

MOST SERENDIPITOUS CALL: OREGON, and it's not close

WORST CALL: TEXAS, and yes, it takes a lot to beat out FSU, UCLA, NEB...

Week 12 Preview: Ecstasy of Small Minds

Fans around the country, at one time or another, truly believe the national media is not on their side: obviously, these individuals are paranoid, but in the case of Ohio State they are absolutely right. Rather than NOT voting OSU #1--hell, as a decided partisan I never did--the media belittled their accomplishments (no real non-conference schedule, uh, what about Kansas, and how in the world does their computer ranking look so good? Wins over the Sooners, haven't played. Wins over Missouri, haven't played. Wins over Texas, uh, won't play. At all.) Sorry about that rant back there. The NYT article which recapped the game reeked of Eastern elitism from a certified Buckeye disparager, Mr. Pete Thamel. Rather than having the courage to offer his own opinion, i.e. Buckeyes suck, he hid behind the mirth emanating from southern quarters.

Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.

It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...

Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13

Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12

Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21

Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23

West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24

Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27

Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35

Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24

Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13

Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White

Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)

Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%

Week 8 Preview: Beat-a-bull?

South Florida @ Rutgers: Welcome to the national championship chase, USF. If the season ended today, the Bulls would play for it all. Alas, it does not, and worse for the highest-ranked team from Florida, key games are on the horizon. Thursday night is such a test... and the eyes of the football world will rest on Piscataway, NJ. #2 comes to town with a stingy defense and some opportunistic playmaking. Louisville helped deny Ohio State a national championship with a memorable loss under similar circumstances last year. RT2020 says USF is currently #1, but Ray Rice and Company will prove undefeated a bridge too far, RUT 25 USF 20 in the upset.

Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23

Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3

Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21

Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT

Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15

USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0

Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23

Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21

Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10

Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20

Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23

Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)

Week 4 Preview: 'Cocks at the Rouge

Texas A&M @ Miami: Mercurial coach Denny Franchione, still best known for ditching Alabama after one campaign, has perhaps his finest team yet in College Station. Building off a tenure-guaranteeing win at Austin last autumn, the Aggies may challenge for a Big 12 South division championship. Well, if so, they need to show some maturity in winning against a good but not elite Miami team, last seen cowering before the Sooners. The Big 12 has taken some hits, and it's due for another one. I like the 'Canes in the upset, MIA 23 TAMU 21

South Carolina @ LSU: Like defense? Glenn Dorsey's crew has dominated three decent teams, but points from their prolific offense may prove difficult to come by against a fast, tough Gamecock D. On the other hand, while this is certainly the Bayou Bengals' roughest test until D-Day on the Sixth, and despite a clear coaching advantage, the Tigers are too good to slip up here, but it's tougher than anticipated, LSU 17 SoCaro 6

Penn State @ Michigan: Do you recollect the last time the Nittany Lions won against the Maize and Blue, how about 1996? Michigan has dominated and won the close ones, and the first step to determining the 2008 Rose Bowl loser is this contest at the Big House. I still love H20, and JoePa's defense has not impressed lately. PSU is good, yet not on the level of the 1994 team that won 31-24 in Ann Arbor, plus I'll take a freshman talent over the inconsistent Anthony Morrelli. MICH 31 PSU 14

Georgia @ Alabama: Richt's Dawgs invade Tuscaloosa to attempt to avoid a second conference loss, albeit out of division. The Tide have rolled thus far, but the escape over the Razorbacks last week raised some questions. I think UGA has the better team, yet the confines favor Nick Saban's team. Expect a nasty, low-scoring battle that may come down to a kick, edge, 'Bama. ALA 18 UGA 16

KENTUCKY @ Arkansas: Ahem, must maintain impartiality... Well, one team runs the ball as well as any in the country, and the other, despite having a great quarterback (who, by the way, if he played for ARK would have them undefeated and in the title chase), cannot stop the run at all. On the other hand, UK has had more success on the road here than anywhere else (outside of Mississippi) in conference. I picked UK over ARK in the preseason, and despite a likely 300 combined total yards from Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, the 'Cats can outscore this team. Andre' Woodson's legend continues to grow. UK 45 ARK 38

All in all, not a great slate of games, yet have no fear, D-Day is coming. So, too, is a Heisman update after the results of this coming Saturday.

RT2020 Poll: Week of September 16

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. Florida (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. West Virginia (+1)
6. California (+6)
7. Penn State (+3)
8. Rutgers (+3)
9. Texas (-5)
10. Wisconsin (-2)
11. South Carolina (+2)
12. Ohio State (+6)
13. Alabama (+9)
14. Boston College (NR)
15. Georgia (+2)
16. Clemson (+7)
17. KENTUCKY! (NR)
18. Oregon (+2)
19. Louisville (-11)
20. Texas A&M (+4)
21. Virginia Tech (NR)
22. Nebraska (-7)
23. Purdue (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Arkansas (-6)


Banished: #7 (ugh) UCLA, #14 (huh?) Georgia Tech, #16 (yeah, I bit) Washington, #19 (you know what you have to do) South Florida, #25 (hey, the 1995 team got roasted at the Swamp too!) Tennessee

Took We a Tumble: #9 Louisville (#20 now), #15 Nebraska (#23 now), #19 Arkansas (#25 now)

Shaky, shaky: #5 Texas (now #9), #8 Wisconsin (now #10)

Validation: #2 USC (NC), #18 Ohio State! (+6)

Starting to Believe: Rutgers, California, South Carolina

I guessed 2006, I was too kind: Notre Dame, reprising their 2003 effort at UM

Well, I haven't felt so good about being so wrong in some time! Starting at the top, the LSU Destroyers continued on their rampage to the national championship game--that's now seven points allowed in three games...

USC nicely stepped up and won the first of five tough roadies this season, although, admittedly, the bout at Seattle no longer looks as challenging. Careful, however, because Oregon and California, both of which Pete Carroll's Dynasty* faces away from the Coliseum, can put up the points too.

Urban Meyer, top coach in America? Only one to defeat Ohio State in twenty-three games, no losses to UF's hard triangle, just asking... Tennessee's "defense" has embarrassed their late-1990s, sans NEB games, units. Where have you gone, Al Wilson, Raynoch Thompson, and D'wayne Goodrich, Rocky Top turns its lonely eyes to you...

Wisconsin, even though I'm sure they'll top OSU and possibly win the Big 10, continues to unimpress, P. J. Hill not withstanding. At the moment, Penn State is the best team in the Big 10, though neither team has gone on the road to beat a worthy adversary... great job, Bucks!

Nick Saban cannot win a national championship in his FIRST year, can he? Too much youth, too many flaws, yet one SEC West foe conquered, two more to go, and one of them just lost to Mississippi State, which admittedly makes South Florida's win on the Plains look more pedestrian than last week.

Oh yes, there was a little quarrel at the Commonwealth last evening... YES!!!!!!!!!!!! Finally, against an opponent that had laughed and snorted at UK for years, Louisville gets its comeuppance, albeit in yet another game that has me seeing 50s and 60s for LSU and Florida. C'mon D, can you hold either to under 30??? Yes, I'll say it, the best win of Rich Brooks's career (you mean better than the NFL days?). Tennessee looks more and more beatable, whilst outscoring Georgia now seems plausible, even if between the hedges.

UK!!!!!!!!!!! UK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WELCOME TO THE AP POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bonus BCS Preview:

OCT 6: Gators at the Tigers, D-Day in the SEC.

Week 1 Preview: Yawn

The 2007 RT2020-proclaimed National Champions, I've called it since December, begin would should prove a short trek to the Superdome by opening with a conference tilt on the road. Rather than feasting on some significantly inferior in-state school, the Bayou Bengals journey to Starkville and then (gasp) host the much-hyped Virginia Tech Hokies in a major statement game at Rouge.

Of course, anyone who remembers LSU's last roadie to a Mississippi locale may think twice before booking a "W" against Sylvester Croom's Bulldogs. On the other hand, Matt Flynn did not start that game. Moving on...

I'm trying my best, yet I cannot even get excited for the California-Tennessee game, between a slightly above-average Pac-10 school and a slightly above-average (yet the most dangerous underdog in the country) SEC counterpart. Yet, we have no other games matching ranked teams. Are any of them likely to lose?

Our long national nightmare is over. Florida State will no longer play Miami in a made-for-TV opening night clash, instead, the supposedly resurging Seminoles (yes, I'm guilty, your honor) charge into Howard's old lair for a bout with the always intriguing Clemson Tigers. Labor Day Bobby just cannot stay away, but this year he may finally have a team worthy of the national spotlight. Let's face it, two BCS bowl appearances aside (both losses) FSU hasn't been FSU since an unfathomable late summer flogging in Chapel Hill in 2001 and their once-invincibility at home (The OBC never won there) crashed shortly thereafter. For those of my generation, who grew up with Florida State always in the Top 5, the last FIVE years have provided something of an education. Namely, dominance is not guaranteed to last forever and overall conference improvement will diminish if not displace the once-King.

Shouldn't this crew reach 9-0, and don't they always topple Virginia Tech? Winning in Gainesville is always dicey, only special (1993, 1999) rosters do it. Given the debacle of their last trip to Death Valley, one would think the 'Noles are primed and focused this time. Of course, their offense has yet to resemble the Mark Richt-juggernaut that rolled up 500 yards without issue since the humiliation Oklahoma sent the Georgia coach in-waiting out the door in the 2000 title game. Chris Rix failed to reach even the levels of Thad Busby, let alone Charlie Ward, Danny Kannell, and Chris Weinke.

It seems this post has degenerated into an FSU preview, yet what else is there to say? Five TD tosses for Colt Brennan at the unwatchable hour of 12:05 AM on the East Coast? Purdue traveling to the Glass Bowl is interesting. Despite not making the best of a two-year absence from Ohio State and Michigan, the Boilermakers may have the stuff to play on January 1, 2008. Joe Tiller likely needs a nine-win season to maintain job security, and Curtis Painter could challenge Chad Henne for All-Big 10 status. A good start against the usually formidable (remember 24-6 at State College some years back?) Rockets is requisite however.

Staying in the Big 10, Coach Tressel's old school arrives at the Shoe to commence the OSU faithful's therapy sessions made necessary by a 41-14 destruction at the hands of Florida. As already displayed, I don't see OSU, despite an All-America talent at running back, rising above the Top 15 in the country. I cannot, though, pick an Ohio school to bounce them, either. As another has put it, Troy Smith is dead. The 2007 season will go a long way to fully ascertaining his legacy as perhaps the greatest Buckeye ever. If OSU rolls to another eleven win season (which would make five in six years), the memories of 3-0 (no explanation required) #10 will fade into the nothingness of a 4/14 outing in a muggy Glendale night. If eight or fewer wins result, we will truly know the special (particularly for an OSU QB) value of Smith.

Perhaps Michigan's greatest concern in the Appalachian State game is whether Coach Lloyd Carr will provide Mike Hart enough playing time to put up his first of many Heisman days. True, #20 will win the award against four opponents, but the PSU '94 precedent exists. Outside of a 63-14 a__-kicking of Ohio State, the marvelous first-team Penn State offense frequently found itself on the sidelines in the second half in decided ballgames, including, to their eternal regret, in Bloomington. RT2020 believes this helped cost Ki-Jana Carter the Heisman Trophy, awarded instead to another All-America back with greater numbers. May history repeat itself? These are the kind of games where a 200-yard day could get Hart some national attention, which he is going to need to wrestle away the trophy from RBs of higher notoriety.

Speaking of Michigan men, well once upon a time anyway, Jim Harbaugh makes his Stanford debut against UCLA, the latter is perhaps destined for an eleven win year whilst the former is likely destined for a fitty-point loss to USC. Will the Bruins slip up? A 13-9 bruising of #2 USC did a lot to erase their soft image, best exemplified in an inability to stop Edgerrin James in a championship dream-ending defeat in Coral Gables nine years ago. Few teams have underachieved like UCLA in the last decade, is a return to handicapped space parking required? Quips aside, the Rose Bowl inhabitants cannot drop this game, lest Pete Carroll become convinced he actually has to prepare for the Cardinal.

The last mildly interesting game for me is Ron Zook's Illini hosting Missouri in Champagne. Last year, Illinois attracted national attention with its "mere" seven-point loss to #1 Ohio State, and its flashy, quick backfield may improve quite a bit this autumn. If Juice Williams and the rest of the promising (Could they go 8-4? Yes.) Illini are going to have that breakthrough season, which would lead a few to go overboard and predict a 2008 conference title, beating the usually solid Tigers by a healthy margin will have to be that first step.

So, while Louisiana State and Florida State have the most interesting openers, we cannot, in all honestly, eagerly anticipate the first week. True, if LSU falls behind, the boys from Austin and Morgantown could snatch their Not Sugar ticket, and then we would have some drama. With the caveat that I've proven spectacularly wrong before, I see 2007 as perhaps the least volatile campaign since 2004. Both the Tigers and the Wolverines simply have the players and the schedules to reach N'Orleans. The weakness of the Big 12 (and their own schedule) removes Texas from consideration. I also don't buy that anyone in the Big East has the maturity to go unbeaten, either.

Shockingly, not a word on ole Southern Cal. Their first test to ESPN openly debating whether they could defeat 1995 Nebraska or 2001 Miami is just days away.

Yes, but do any of them scare you?

A reporter from the Old Cranky Lady (reference: here) openly gushes about the quality and quantity of Southern California's tailback position:

"Few teams have ever collected more talent at one position. Each of the Trojans’ 10 tailbacks was a Super Prep All-American. Nine were Prep Star all-Americans. Seven were Parade all-Americans. Together, they were on 38 first-team all-American lists."

This graf, however, represents my favorite part:

"From the moment (Hershel) Dennis arrived on campus, he was behind somebody. First, it was Sultan McCullough and Justin Fargas. Then it was Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Now, as a sixth-year senior, he is fighting off Chauncey Washington and C. J. Gable."

Firstly, all credit to the young man for sticking it out in a tough environment. Admittedly, though, I was in the other room, did Lee Jenkins just compare Washington and Gable to the horses of 2004-05, a. k. a., Thunder and Lightning? Forgive me, I am not able to follow the great game of college football terribly closely from my present location, but didn't USC close the season, presumably with a very similar stable of runners, getting stuffed by UCLA and quitting on the run against M-eee-chigan?

We term this "Student Body Right"? In the days of Allen, the first White, Bell, Davis, Sam-Bam, the One Who Shall Not Be Named, and Garrett, the Trojans stared down dominant run defenses (usually in Pasadena at the onset of a new calendar year) and hammered away. True, Reggie Bush and LenDale White performed comparably just two years ago, but we've seen this current crop, and until further notice, none measure up.

Hey, it's good to have confidence...

"'We’re stacked everywhere,' the sophomore tailback Allen Bradford said. 'It doesn’t really make a difference what position you play.'"

So prove it. Win all of your road games instead of gazing off with glazed eyes as the Beavers and Bruins combine to wreck your championship dreams. Personally, I don't understand this fascination with extreme depth. Would you rather have one Darren McFadden or ten "Super Prep" All America backs? One Mike Hart or five guys buried on the depth chart that were once lauded as "best in the nation"? I think the point is made.

Why is the RBBC an issue?

"Last season, U.S.C. tried to please everybody, using one of those ill-fated running back committees. No player averaged more than 60 yards rushing a game, and the Trojans failed to crack 100 yards on the ground against Oregon State and U.C.L.A., losing both games."

Football, dear readers, for all its sophistication, remains quite simple: run the ball well and win. Now, last year's Rose Bowl (and most of OSU's 2006 Big 10 Championship season) provided a textbook case of how to win sans a superior ground attack, yet I'll have you note that neither team won the national title. (What of Florida? Did they dominate games on the ground?--ed With Tebow, yes, to some extent, plus their superior athletes on defense carried the spread offense across the Glendale finish line)

Mr. Jenkins finishes with a flourish:

"How the coaches sort out their crowded backfield this season — and who they choose as their every-down guy — could determine whether the Trojans win the national championship."

Perhaps one day folks will realize that All America in high school does not always translate at the next level. Most of these backs dominated outclassed competition--no longer. UCLA proved last year that their supposedly more laid-back bunch could roll up USC's ground attack post-Bush/White. They will run away from none of the SEC's finest in a hypothetical Not Sugar bout in N'Orleans.

The fact that Southern California informs us of their incredible depth should also make us aware of a dirty little secret: none of them truly stand out from the others. They failed to adequately bludgeon D-lines last season and need a statement game (200 yards or more rushing on a warm September night in Lincoln, maybe?) to justify all this "greatest backfield depth EVER!" hype.

Many moons ago, Florida State once boasted three or four of the top QBs in all the land, yet easily understood that only one could actually call out the signals. Rather than bragging about holding nine of the, say, twenty-five highest "rated" tailbacks in America, the Trojans should save their scholarships for more needed players.

Like perhaps an offensive line, as opposed to the one physically overwhelmed by UCLA. Just a thought.

Preseason Poll (Week of 19 AUG)

1. Louisiana State
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Southern California
6. Wisconsin
7. West Virginia
8. Florida State
9. Georgia
10. UCLA
11. Nebraska
12. Louisville
13. Oklahoma
14. Rutgers
15. Penn State
16. Tennessee
17. Virginia Tech
18. Ohio State
19. Boise State
20. South Carolina
21. California
22. Auburn
23. Oregon State
24. Arkansas
25. Miami (FL)

Comments:

The Tigers have a tailor-made schedule to reach the championship game (gotta beat FLA, possibly twice) and then could play before their partisans at the Superdome. Michigan can also punch its ticket with a win against Bucky, a team they've handled since the mid-1990s. Defending national champ Florida is perhaps given a generous rating, but their offense should have more explosiveness and Urban Meyer can find a way around the loss of nine defensive starters (for awhile and to a point). Rounding out the Top 5, Texas and USC. Colt McCoy is probably the most important player in the Big 12 (sorry, Sam Keller), if he remains healthy, the 'Horns should down the Sooners for the third straight year. The Trojans, as discussed previously, are hampered by a monster schedule, even if Notre Dame and Oregon don't look terribly fearsome at the moment.

With the exception of UCLA, the next group of teams have a decent chance to capture one of the two slots for N'Orleans. Think Wisconsin's journey to Columbus poses a problem? Think again. Ohio State has not defeated the Badgers at home since 1996 (a 14-10 nailbiter, losses in 1999, 2001, and 2004), we'll see if that was just Alvarez magic. The Mountaineers are a perpetual tease, still, I look for them to crunch Louisville in Morgantown, but even going unbeaten does not a BCS title game guarantee. Florida State, perhaps, is poised to return to at least 1989-1991 form, and Georgia is a sleeper pick to win the SEC for the third time in six campaigns.

Nos. 11-15 intrigue, but I see too many holes for each though. Nebraska may clip USC, but not Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. Louisville has a Heisman candidate at quarterback, but a loss to West Virginia seems likely. Penn State and Oklahoma are both beset with quarterback issues, and Rutgers will have a difficult time reaching the heights of 2006, nonetheless they will hover in the Top 15.

Ohio State, however, will not. Road night games at Seattle and State College (OSU: 2-4 at Beaver Stadium since 1994, twice gagging double-digit leads) are cause for severe concern, plus there's a Tressel shortcoming against Wisconsin (1-4) and the prospect of the most motivated Michigan team to take the field in four years. Chris Perry and Braylon Edwards had their way in a convincing 35-21 victory of then-#2 OSU in 2003, look for Mike Hart and Mario Mannigham (irrespective of what this guy says, the best WR in the Big 10) to perform similarly. Virginia Tech, as Pat Forde said on the radio the other day, always seems to drop a winnable game at home, plus LSU is on the schedule this year.

South Carolina could prove to "the Leap," as ESPN's Bill Simmons would put it, as Spurrier's guys nearly got Florida in Gainesville last season. This is year three of the project, and the deeper Gamecocks should return to the Top 20 nationally. I am not a buyer in Cal, something about getting waxed in Knoxville, blowing a conference game to Arizona(!), and failing to play an effective fourth quarter against USC... just rubs me the wrong way. Yes, the Tennessee game goes West this year, but M-Lynch will not participate. Ditto Auburn, as I lost a great deal of respect for the team that got caught looking ahead to Florida (whom they beat) and allowed an essentially-QB-less Razorback team to run them into the ground. Gone went BCS title dreams. Darren McFadden alone puts Arkansas in the Top 25, provided they don't sleep on Kentucky (shhhh).

Seven SEC schools make the Twenty-five, but I think LSU's defense, even without All America Landry (now in D. C.) will suffocate enough offenses to allow their new starting quarterback, to say, post more than three points against Auburn and ten against Florida. Not that such a performance would necessarily prevent Matt Flynn from going #1 in the NFL Draft, ahem. We should say this, however: LSU is in a dangerous position, they cannot lose because all of their key games are in Baton Rouge. Even Michigan with its favorable schedule, travels to Camp Randall. Florida could lose to LSU and get them in a rematch on a neutral field. Wisconsin conceivably could lose to Ohio State yet beat Michigan, though, as we've seen, a one-loss Big 10 team has very little chance at playing for a title (Exhibit A: 2006 Michigan). USC can most afford a loss, unfortunately they are the most likely Top 5 team to lose three times.

D-Mac's to Lose?

After a scintillating sophomore season capped off by the Doak Walker Award and a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, Arkansas tailback Darren McFadden (D-Mac) would seem the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in 2007. My question is not to his talent, but his team, as in, will the Hogs win enough games? Can they prevent LSU or Auburn from winning the SEC West in their place? I say no. Shockingly, the experts at ESPN.com disagree.

"McFadden has the numbers and the style to keep voters happy. Only two backs in SEC history have ever rushed for 1,000 yards in their freshman and sophomore seasons: Herschel Walker and McFadden. The Arkansas tailback accounted for touchdowns in four different ways last season: 14 as a runner, three as a passer, one as a receiver and one as a kick returner. If McFadden can duplicate this performance and the Hogs, coming off one of the crazier soap-opera offseasons in years, can get back to the SEC title game, he will be tough to beat."

Bruce Feldman brings up a good point: any comparison to Herschel Walker is outstanding for a player's cause. I simply dissent from his implicit premise that McFadden will get the back to the SEC title game. If he does, I will strongly endorse his candidacy. It took four touchdown passes from Troy Smith in a 42-39 victory of #2 Michigan for me to finally rank the eventual Heisman winner over D-Mac.

If not Darren McFadden, then...

CONTENDERS (as ranked by ESPN's panel):

1. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
2. John David Booty, QB, USC
3. Brian Brohm, QB, LOU
4. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
5. Mike Hart, RB, MICH

For either Slaton or his quarterback, Pat White, to even remotely come close to the award, West Virginia must go undefeated in the regular season. Must. Also, not disappearing in the latter part of the year would help too. For all its talent, Rich Rodriguez's team never looked the same after a stinging loss in Lousiville. True, they knocked off Rutgers, but by that point had forfeited status as a BCS bowl contender.

A USC quarterback, again? Maybe. There's no denying Booty looked like Palmer and Leinart against the Michigan secondary, but there is no hiding his rather pedestrian game against UCLA, either. Another factor against him? USC is blessed with tremendous depth at QB, which could lead Pete Carroll, after a Booty washout in Lincoln, to give Sanchez a shot. I'm not a Booty believer just yet.

Brian Brohm? Same criteria as Slaton/White, must not lose a game, which means no second-half egg against Rutgers that cost Ohio State a national championship. Boost? Andre Woodson has received a good deal of publicity following Maisel's bold proclamation, whipping UK at their house will do a lot for his candidacy.

Colt Brennan must post Andre Ware-type numbers to even merit a place in New York City. Very few people will watch his games, even though he could make a Pro Bowl or two later in his career. Possibly the nation's best passer, but the lack of a major conference schedule (and TV time) will not yield him the Heisman.

My pick to win the trophy is Mike Hart of Michigan, the school's first serious RB Heisman candidate since Tyrone Wheatley in 1993 (yes, that didn't end well). Michigan is out of excuses this season. Notwithstanding a nasty night affair in Madison, the other important contests are at the Big House: Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State. Assuming their defense retains 85% of its 2006 form (the front seven, that is), the Wolverines are two touchdowns better than all of those teams. Hart will rush for 150-200 yards against all of them, and it is hard to fathom the best player from last year's Epic in Columbus ending his career 0-4 versus the Buckeyes.

Darkhorses?

Ian Johnson of Boise State must run for 2,000 yards, and even then, too many running backs are ahead of him. The Blue Turfers may record another perfect record, but it's asking too much for McFadden, Slaton, and Hart to slip up. Chad Henne is an interesting case, although his expected All-Big 10 season may have the net effect of costing Hart the Heisman Trophy. Clearly, he must lead Michigan past Ohio State. If he does that, possibly, if not the first eleven games will matter very little.

Interesting that only one of the panel's nominees is a sophomore or a freshman (Colt McCoy, QB, Texas--and last at that) despite recent trips to the show by underclassmen McFadden and Reggie Bush (2004).

I would add two names: Florida QB Tim Tebow and Michigan WR Mario Manningham. With the departure of Calvin Johnson, Manningham, who exploded onto the national scene during Michigan's 47-21 demolition of then-#2 Notre Dame last year, is certainly the best wideout in the country. He may in fact also prove the best player, but absent Howard/Woodson-like effectiveness on returns, few voters are going to tap a receiver. Tebow's versatility helped the Gators to a national title a year ago, now, as a super sophomore, he may take the next leap, though he's not nearly as polished a passer as either Grossman (2001) or Wuerffel (1995, 1996), yet. Nevertheless, if Florida stays in the Top 5 most of the year, Tebow may well take the Southeastern bloc of Heisman voters.

In 2006, everyone assumed the race was Brady Quinn's to lose, and, owing much to Notre Dame's humiliation at the hands of Michigan, he lost it to Troy Smith of Ohio State. McFadden does not have the golden helmet to assist his cause, in fact, the Razorbacks do not regularly achieve a national following. If Arkansas is out of the title chase early, he's going to need 2,000 yards and a lot more touchdowns than last season. I think Hart can get it done with 1,800 yards and twelve victories, though an average-per-carry north of five would do much for his cause. Michigan fans slightly concerned that an impressive QB/RB/WR combo might spell doom for #20's odds, look only to Ohio State, 1995. Terry Glenn played perhaps the finest wide receiver season I've yet to witness (for eleven games anyway) and Eddie George easily won the Heisman Trophy (thanks, Orlando Pace).

West Virginia always trips up somewhere, exit Slaton and White. Louisville does not figure to challenge for the championship, exit Brohm.

Absolute darkhorse: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State. Perhaps the only player standing between OSU and 8-4, this phenomenally skilled back could carry a 10-1 team into Ann Arbor with 1,600 and twenty scores (if he can cease fumbling long enough). Given his ordinary sporting cast, Wells will merit serious consideration if he stays healthy and performs to his capabilities, absent a sterling line, quarterback, or receiving option.

Prediction:

1. Mike Hart, RB, MICH
2. Darren McFadden, RB, ARK
3. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
4. Chris Wells, RB, OSU
5. Tim Tebow, QB, FLA
6. Mario Manningham, WR, MICH
7. John David Booty, QB, USC
8. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
9. Andre' Woodson, QB, UK (homer alert)
10. Ian Johnson, RB, BSU

Would Hart have a chance against a swarming Bayou Bengal defense on the Superdome floor, however? Umm...

RT2020: Why Don't You Love USC?

Predictable.

First, kudos to Mel Kiper Jr., for dissenting from the crowd (albeit wrongly).

Don't give me wrong, I have great respect for Pete Carroll and the program he has built since 2002. Their prowess in top games, including another Rose Bowl victory over Michigan last season, is undeniable. No other program in the Pac-10 measures up on any kind of a consistent basis. I think another return to Pasadena is certainly achievable for this now perennial national championship contender.

Yet, not to N'Orleans for the Big One.

My two problems with USC derive from immaturity and the all-important schedule. Here is the latter:

v. Idaho
@ Nebraska
v. Washington State
@ Washington
v. Stanford
v. Arizona
@ Notre Dame
@ Oregon
v. Oregon State
@ California
@ Arizona State
v. UCLA

Even without a Pac-10 Championship Game, quite a formidable slate, including possibly the nastiest stretch in the country from October 20 thru November 10. I'll give them Idaho, Stanford (perhaps by sixty), and Arizona, as three easy victories, all at the Coliseum.

Next group: Washington State, Washington and Arizona State

Don't laugh, although it's not the Southeastern Conference (the hardest games to win in college football are night SEC roadies, or if you're Ohio State, any SEC opponents at all, natch), both of these ballgames are under the lights. USC should win both, but a slip up at either one is certainly possible, in part because this year's group has not earned a 2005-esque aura. Arizona State brings a new coach, a victor of many big games including two national championships. Washington State should also give the Trojans a battle.

Verdict: 6-0

Next up: UCLA and Oregon State

Revenge. The Bruins stymied USC's seemingly inevitable march to Glendale in a 13-9 upset that ultimately permitted Florida to reach the Not Fiesta game. Oregon State built a lead and held on at the goaline to hang the first Pac-10 loss on Southern Cal since an OT loss in Berkeley, in early 2003. Both teams must face the Coliseum this year, however, and although one could pull it off, USC has defended their home territory since 2002.

Verdict: 8-0

Last: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, and California

Here, my friends, the road to Bourbon Street ends. All FOUR of the aforementioned DESPERATELY need to prove their worth in big games, i.e. beating a tough opponent at home. The Huskers have been searching for their identity since a 62-38 debacle in Boulder (coupled with a 37-14 embarrassment at the Rose Bowl shortly thereafter) six years ago; they need this one. The Irish, returning to glory since 1993, narrowly missed scoring the upset in 2005, but have lacked a WOW victory since their opening game upset of defending co-national champion Michigan... in 1998(!); they need this one. Oregon and California are the two second-tier programs in the Pac-10, neither has beaten USC in the last three years; they need this game almost as much as the still-recovering bastions of Lincoln and South Bend.

Brad Edwards, the BCS guru from ESPN.com argues that USC can sustain one loss and still qualify for the BCS Championship Game. Well, all right. Except that West Virginia, Michigan, Texas, to name three, have excellent schedules for running the table. Furthermore, we return to the issue of maturity.

In the clutch, with everything on the line against a mediocre team, these guys flunked miserably last season in their devastating loss to UCLA. I understand that John David Booty returns at the controls and that their defense sacks the quarterback and forces buckets of turnovers, all to the good.

I just believe that very few college football teams are good enough to survive so many night road games, particularly against sufficiently motivated opposition. They will lose at least two games and maybe three. In order of likelihood:

1) @ Oregon - USC will come fired up for the Huskers after dispatching Idaho, Notre Dame always focuses them, and Cal, as Edwards predicts, will determine the Pac-10 champ. Eugene, however, is where they could get ambushed. Don't say I didn't warn you.

2) @ California - Coach Jeff Tedford risks falling out of Top 20 national status if they don't start at least holding serve against USC.

3) @ Nebraska - They're a better team than #5.

4) Oregon State - I certainly expect USC to triumph here, but cannot ignore the second-most talented team in the conference.

5) @ Notre Dame - Memories linger from a fourth-and-long fly pattern, a Heisman-worthy assist on a quarterback sneak, and ND's inability to beat upper echelon competition. The Irish probably make it interesting, as usual in South Bend, but USC is a much stronger team.

Caveat: In 2002, the University of Miami stared at a similar schedule, at least concerning road matches at #3 and #4 of 2001's last poll, yet neither the Gators nor the Vols lived up to preseason hype, and that Hurricane crew was playing for history.

UCLA showed how to punish this team, and its hidden weakness (ground attack, post-Bush and White) will rear its ugly head in Lincoln and Eugene. Of course, the inconsistency of the Golden Bears will still afford the Trojans an opportunity to defend their conference title, which they will do in a statement game.

Summation: 10-2 (8-1) and a Rose Bowl bid.

So RT2020, who do you like?

Stay tuned...