In their house, just down the road from the Rouge? To a Big 10 team that last defeated an SEC school in the 1980s? Representing a conference with a stellar BCS and unblemished BCS Championship Game record since 1992?
Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.
I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?
That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?
True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.
Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...
1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.
2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.
3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?
4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.
5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).
I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.
The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.
Showing posts with label Prognostication. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prognostication. Show all posts
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Sunday, December 2, 2007
A Stroll Down Memory Lane
Before I self-flagellate, a little crow about my parlay of the year: Oregon, to beat USC, and NOT to rank in the final poll. At #2 in the BCS just weeks ago, it looked like another foolish pick. Alas, not so fast my friend...
The exercise: a preseason poll and how it measured up...
BOLD: indicates a sincere tip of the hat.
1. Louisiana State (5)
Analysis: O, how I loved thee all through the campaign, yet you lost my heart against the Hogs and didn't get it back. Both losses were not good.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -4 performance
2. Michigan (17)
Analysis: Actually, given their 6-1 Big Ten start, not so bad. Riiight. The 7-39 stinkbomb against Oregon and the half-hearted effort in Madison will still not likely prove as memorable as a loss to Appalachian State.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -15 performance
3. Texas (NR)
Analysis: I'm officially off the Mack Brown bandwagon, the program ran on fumes for a time without Vince Young but the parade of Big 12 losses to mediocre teams has become quite disturbing.
Judgment: Awful, < -23 performance
4. Florida (7)
Analysis: Knew Tebow would be good, knew the Gators had one of the best coaches, didn't think Auburn would get them again. Had them losing to LSU though, but not to Georgia.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -3 performance
5. Southern California (4)
Analysis: My 10-2 forecast (nailed ORE game, as for that NEB game, err...) proved remarkably prescient. I never bought the hype. Rose Bowl? Yes, but nothing more.
Judgment: Dead on, +1 performance
6. Wisconsin (14)
Analysis: They figured to lose one to either Michigan or Ohio State, but getting housed by PSU even at Beaver Stadium was terrible. P. J. Hill didn't become a Heisman threat and the defense got gouged by Beanie and the Bucks.
Judgment: Overrated, -8 performance
7. West Virginia (16)
Analysis: Goodbye to all that, part deux. The worst home loss in school history, still, got the Big East champion part right.
Judgment: Overrated, -9 performance
8. Florida State (NR)
Analysis: They upset then-#2 BC, and, let's just move right along...
Judgment: Awful, < -18 performance
9. Georgia (1)
Analysis: Had the 10-2 record, didn't quite foresee just how formidable a two-loss team would prove this year. Missed the Florida game, too.
Judgment: Underrated, +8 performance
10. UCLA (NR)
11. Nebraska (NR)
12. Louisville (NR)
Analysis: Twenty returning starters didn't work out too well, Sam Keller never became a Heisman threat, and Brian Brohm was let down by everyone, coaches included.
Judgment: Awful, awful, and awful. < -15, < -14, < -13, respectively
13. Oklahoma (3)
Analysis: Didn't buy Bradford, do now. Didn't think much of a team that failed to conquer Boise State, thought Texas was better (oops)
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +10 performance
14. Rutgers (NR)
Analysis: Just never played with consistency, wiped out South Florida and then got dropped by Maryland. Ray Rice didn't capitalize on his team's 2006 season.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, < -11 performance
15. Penn State (25)
Analysis: Allowed OSU to run them off the field, failed to score a TD at Michigan, and closed with an ugly collapse against Sparty. More mediocrity for JoePa.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -10 performance
16. Tennessee (13)
Analysis: Didn't see them winning the SEC East, but pretty much nailed their performance against Florida. Looked awful in Tuscaloosa, though.
Judgment: Slightly underrated, +3 performance
17. Virginia Tech (6)
Analysis: Knew LSU game was an "L," but like UGA, didn't see a two-loss team this impressive, also didn't see a conference title, oops.
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +11 performance
18. Ohio State (2)
Analysis: Well, forecast 3-4 losses. They dropped one. Third straight "odd year" with a BCS Bowl appearance. Rebuilding? Ha!
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +16 performance
19. Boise State (NR)
Analysis: Thought they would only lose once, dropped two games. Disappointing loss to Hawaii, too. Still, a good year.
Judgment: Overrated, < -6 performance
20. South Carolina (NR)
Analysis: Missed the early rise, didn't think their collapse would prove as bad. Nailed the LSU loss and UK win, expected more though from the Old Ball Coach.
Judgment: Overrated, < -5 performance
21. California (NR)
Analysis: Curiously low for August, yet a lot better than most. This team stood one score away from #1 at one time, won at Autzen, but completely fell apart down the stretch, my goodness, they lost to STANFORD!!!
Judgment: Slightly overrated, < -4 performance
22. Auburn (13)
Analysis: Didn't see win in Gainesville coming, yet believed second in SEC firmly possible.
Judgment: Underrated, +9 performance
23. Oregon State (NR)
Analysis: Hell, the pollsters have them about here. I bought early but a few eye-opening losses caused my exodus from the bandwagon, team failed to capitalize on ten-win momentum from 2006.
Judgment: Dead on, -2 performance
24. Arkansas (15)
Analysis: Never saw a win at Baton Rouge, but thought D-Mac could keep them in the race for #2 in the West. The defeat at the hands of UK, mind you, was not a good one.
Judgment: Underrated, -9 performance
25. Miami (FL) (NR)
Analysis: Drank too much Randy Shannon Kool-Aid, 0-48 drubbing by Virginia.
Judgment: Awful, < -1 performance (awful because team isn't in Top 40)
BIGGEST HITS:
LSU, FLORIDA, USC, TENNESSEE, PENN STATE, and OREGON STATE
COLOSSAL MISFIRES:
MICHIGAN, TEXAS, FLORIDA STATE, UCLA, NEBRASKA, LOUISVILLE, and MIAMI (FL)
Finally...
HIGHEST FINAL POLL TEAMS NOT RANKED IN AUGUST
8. Illinois - Bandwagoneer for '08, Iowa loss notwithstanding
9. Arizona State - Great season for Denny-E
10. Kansas - Reesing, but didn't play anyone
12. Missouri - Finally played to expectations
18. Virginia - won more than fair share of close ones
BEST CALL: USC, specified two losses (1-2 on those games)
MOST SERENDIPITOUS CALL: OREGON, and it's not close
WORST CALL: TEXAS, and yes, it takes a lot to beat out FSU, UCLA, NEB...
The exercise: a preseason poll and how it measured up...
BOLD: indicates a sincere tip of the hat.
1. Louisiana State (5)
Analysis: O, how I loved thee all through the campaign, yet you lost my heart against the Hogs and didn't get it back. Both losses were not good.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -4 performance
2. Michigan (17)
Analysis: Actually, given their 6-1 Big Ten start, not so bad. Riiight. The 7-39 stinkbomb against Oregon and the half-hearted effort in Madison will still not likely prove as memorable as a loss to Appalachian State.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -15 performance
3. Texas (NR)
Analysis: I'm officially off the Mack Brown bandwagon, the program ran on fumes for a time without Vince Young but the parade of Big 12 losses to mediocre teams has become quite disturbing.
Judgment: Awful, < -23 performance
4. Florida (7)
Analysis: Knew Tebow would be good, knew the Gators had one of the best coaches, didn't think Auburn would get them again. Had them losing to LSU though, but not to Georgia.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -3 performance
5. Southern California (4)
Analysis: My 10-2 forecast (nailed ORE game, as for that NEB game, err...) proved remarkably prescient. I never bought the hype. Rose Bowl? Yes, but nothing more.
Judgment: Dead on, +1 performance
6. Wisconsin (14)
Analysis: They figured to lose one to either Michigan or Ohio State, but getting housed by PSU even at Beaver Stadium was terrible. P. J. Hill didn't become a Heisman threat and the defense got gouged by Beanie and the Bucks.
Judgment: Overrated, -8 performance
7. West Virginia (16)
Analysis: Goodbye to all that, part deux. The worst home loss in school history, still, got the Big East champion part right.
Judgment: Overrated, -9 performance
8. Florida State (NR)
Analysis: They upset then-#2 BC, and, let's just move right along...
Judgment: Awful, < -18 performance
9. Georgia (1)
Analysis: Had the 10-2 record, didn't quite foresee just how formidable a two-loss team would prove this year. Missed the Florida game, too.
Judgment: Underrated, +8 performance
10. UCLA (NR)
11. Nebraska (NR)
12. Louisville (NR)
Analysis: Twenty returning starters didn't work out too well, Sam Keller never became a Heisman threat, and Brian Brohm was let down by everyone, coaches included.
Judgment: Awful, awful, and awful. < -15, < -14, < -13, respectively
13. Oklahoma (3)
Analysis: Didn't buy Bradford, do now. Didn't think much of a team that failed to conquer Boise State, thought Texas was better (oops)
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +10 performance
14. Rutgers (NR)
Analysis: Just never played with consistency, wiped out South Florida and then got dropped by Maryland. Ray Rice didn't capitalize on his team's 2006 season.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, < -11 performance
15. Penn State (25)
Analysis: Allowed OSU to run them off the field, failed to score a TD at Michigan, and closed with an ugly collapse against Sparty. More mediocrity for JoePa.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -10 performance
16. Tennessee (13)
Analysis: Didn't see them winning the SEC East, but pretty much nailed their performance against Florida. Looked awful in Tuscaloosa, though.
Judgment: Slightly underrated, +3 performance
17. Virginia Tech (6)
Analysis: Knew LSU game was an "L," but like UGA, didn't see a two-loss team this impressive, also didn't see a conference title, oops.
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +11 performance
18. Ohio State (2)
Analysis: Well, forecast 3-4 losses. They dropped one. Third straight "odd year" with a BCS Bowl appearance. Rebuilding? Ha!
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +16 performance
19. Boise State (NR)
Analysis: Thought they would only lose once, dropped two games. Disappointing loss to Hawaii, too. Still, a good year.
Judgment: Overrated, < -6 performance
20. South Carolina (NR)
Analysis: Missed the early rise, didn't think their collapse would prove as bad. Nailed the LSU loss and UK win, expected more though from the Old Ball Coach.
Judgment: Overrated, < -5 performance
21. California (NR)
Analysis: Curiously low for August, yet a lot better than most. This team stood one score away from #1 at one time, won at Autzen, but completely fell apart down the stretch, my goodness, they lost to STANFORD!!!
Judgment: Slightly overrated, < -4 performance
22. Auburn (13)
Analysis: Didn't see win in Gainesville coming, yet believed second in SEC firmly possible.
Judgment: Underrated, +9 performance
23. Oregon State (NR)
Analysis: Hell, the pollsters have them about here. I bought early but a few eye-opening losses caused my exodus from the bandwagon, team failed to capitalize on ten-win momentum from 2006.
Judgment: Dead on, -2 performance
24. Arkansas (15)
Analysis: Never saw a win at Baton Rouge, but thought D-Mac could keep them in the race for #2 in the West. The defeat at the hands of UK, mind you, was not a good one.
Judgment: Underrated, -9 performance
25. Miami (FL) (NR)
Analysis: Drank too much Randy Shannon Kool-Aid, 0-48 drubbing by Virginia.
Judgment: Awful, < -1 performance (awful because team isn't in Top 40)
BIGGEST HITS:
LSU, FLORIDA, USC, TENNESSEE, PENN STATE, and OREGON STATE
COLOSSAL MISFIRES:
MICHIGAN, TEXAS, FLORIDA STATE, UCLA, NEBRASKA, LOUISVILLE, and MIAMI (FL)
Finally...
HIGHEST FINAL POLL TEAMS NOT RANKED IN AUGUST
8. Illinois - Bandwagoneer for '08, Iowa loss notwithstanding
9. Arizona State - Great season for Denny-E
10. Kansas - Reesing, but didn't play anyone
12. Missouri - Finally played to expectations
18. Virginia - won more than fair share of close ones
BEST CALL: USC, specified two losses (1-2 on those games)
MOST SERENDIPITOUS CALL: OREGON, and it's not close
WORST CALL: TEXAS, and yes, it takes a lot to beat out FSU, UCLA, NEB...
Monday, October 1, 2007
Week 6 Preview: Diminished Weekend
KENTUCKY!!! @ South Carolina: So many times, the 'Cats have come so close to beating this team, usually at Commonwealth. A "W" here means first place in the high-powered SEC East, with home games against Florida and Tennessee to come. Woodson finally threw a pick last week, but still fired a career-high five TD passes. Unfortunately, the defensive talent skies upward this Thursday night in Columbia. On the plus side, the 'Cocks don't boast a top SEC offense. Can UK, once more, outscore a ranked opponent on the road? I say, yes. UK 34 SoCaro 27
Florida @ Louisiana State: No longer #3 @ #2. I thought I had this game figured out last week: LSU would control FLA's high-scoring attack, Flynn would make enough plays, and the Gators unbeaten streak would end at the Rouge. Alas, Auburn got there first. Why does this matter? Well, entering last weekend, Florida did NOT have to win this game in order to compete for the national championship; they've could've won the SEC East and beaten LSU in a rematch for the conference title. Now, this is a must win for the until-the-AUB game best coach in the country. Can the Gators count on six turnovers this time? Uh, no. LSU 30 FLA 14
Ohio State @ Purdue: Of all the projected "Separation Saturday" matchups, this is the only one to materialize with both squads still without a blemish on their records. The Buckeyes and Boilermakers have cruised early, yet scheduling has played a role. PUR has beaten no one of consequence, whilst OSU is helped by a respectable Washington team that stayed with USC for four quarters. The matchup is clearly Ohio State's defense versus a turn-back-the-clock (as in 2000 or early 2004) Purdue offense. Joe Tiller has never had much luck in Columbus, yet has won two of the last three in West Lafayette, and OSU needed a 4-1 TD pass in the closing seconds to win here in 2002. The questions: Is Boeckman ready? Can OSU's defense force turnovers? Yes and yes. OSU 24 PUR 21 (OT)
Wisconsin @ Illinois: All of a sudden, a much more intriguing game. The Illini stymied Penn State late and ended the Nittany Lion's conference title hopes. They are young but fast. WIS earned some points for holding off a game Spartan team last week, yet, they're vulnerable. Illinois has the defense to thwart Bucky's ground attack and force Tyler Donovan to win the game. Can he? Does Illinois move to (gasp) 3-0 and stay in first place? Not quite. WIS 17 ILL 13
Oklahoma v. Texas: Yawn. Who cares about this game now? It's not even for first place in the Big 12 South. Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford looked atrocious last weekend, but the Sooners appear to be a much better team than the Longhorns. OU, in the words of one columnist, stopped playing after fifty minutes in Boulder, whereas Texas broke down on special teams and turned the ball over at will. Bradford will bounce back, McCoy, err, well... OU 49 TX 10
Virginia Tech @ Clemson: The Tigers lost a lot of credibility in their 3-13 kicking meltdown loss in Atlanta. The weak ACC, sans BC (maybe), remains up for grabs, though. Clemson is a very good home team and the Hokies struggled to get past UNC last Saturday. Nonetheless, VT is a better team and Frank Beamer's crew will make the natives in Death Valley a bit more restless. VT 27 CLEM 20
Nebraska @ Missouri: For years, the black helmets have teased. For years, they've been exposed. As ugly as the Huskers have looked in the last few weeks, if they win in Columbia, they take a big step in claiming the Big 12 North. On the other hand, with COL and K-ST manning up last week, that division suddenly seems a trifle stronger. Look for a big day for Sam Keller as NEB gets back on (something of a) track, rolling to victory. NEB 45 MIZZ 23
Does this mean you have to rank them in the next poll?--ed No comment.
Cincinnati @ Rutgers: Are the Bearcats for real? Did Ohio State pick a good year to avoid the rompers from the 'Nati? The answer to the second one is yes. The first? Dominance looks good, but have they played anyone? Rutgers hasn't either, yet they were felled by the Terps--no the 2001 Orange Bowl participants didn't sneak back into Piscataway--when the Big East seemed theirs for the taking. RUT hosts WVA and LOU doesn't scare anyone, so a win here could lead them to a BCS game... where they'd get housed. RUT 23 CIN 20
Notre Dame @ UCLA: (Giggling) You may recall the Brady Quinn-led comeback to beat the Bruins in South Bend last year. You may also know that Quinn now totes a clipboard for the 2-2 Cleveland Browns--two more wins than the Irish currently possess. As ever, the second LA team remains an enigma: they looked great in three games and hideous in one. Seriously, 20 returning starters and a 6-44 loss in Salt Lake City, and not to Meyer's 2004 team??? Questions remain: will ND be favored against the Dookies later this year, and will USC go for 70? UCLA 28 ND 19
Heisman opportunity:
Andre' Woodson, UK: 275 yards pass, 2 TDs, 40 yards rush, TD
Tim Tebow, FLA: 250 yards pass, TD, 70 yards rush
A possibility exists that both top SEC signal-callers will exit the race after next weekend, which would boost the chances of both Mike Hart and Darren McFadden. H20 will get a little boost from breaking UM's all time rushing record. Yet, if both win, a showdown looms in Lexington this month.
Florida @ Louisiana State: No longer #3 @ #2. I thought I had this game figured out last week: LSU would control FLA's high-scoring attack, Flynn would make enough plays, and the Gators unbeaten streak would end at the Rouge. Alas, Auburn got there first. Why does this matter? Well, entering last weekend, Florida did NOT have to win this game in order to compete for the national championship; they've could've won the SEC East and beaten LSU in a rematch for the conference title. Now, this is a must win for the until-the-AUB game best coach in the country. Can the Gators count on six turnovers this time? Uh, no. LSU 30 FLA 14
Ohio State @ Purdue: Of all the projected "Separation Saturday" matchups, this is the only one to materialize with both squads still without a blemish on their records. The Buckeyes and Boilermakers have cruised early, yet scheduling has played a role. PUR has beaten no one of consequence, whilst OSU is helped by a respectable Washington team that stayed with USC for four quarters. The matchup is clearly Ohio State's defense versus a turn-back-the-clock (as in 2000 or early 2004) Purdue offense. Joe Tiller has never had much luck in Columbus, yet has won two of the last three in West Lafayette, and OSU needed a 4-1 TD pass in the closing seconds to win here in 2002. The questions: Is Boeckman ready? Can OSU's defense force turnovers? Yes and yes. OSU 24 PUR 21 (OT)
Wisconsin @ Illinois: All of a sudden, a much more intriguing game. The Illini stymied Penn State late and ended the Nittany Lion's conference title hopes. They are young but fast. WIS earned some points for holding off a game Spartan team last week, yet, they're vulnerable. Illinois has the defense to thwart Bucky's ground attack and force Tyler Donovan to win the game. Can he? Does Illinois move to (gasp) 3-0 and stay in first place? Not quite. WIS 17 ILL 13
Oklahoma v. Texas: Yawn. Who cares about this game now? It's not even for first place in the Big 12 South. Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford looked atrocious last weekend, but the Sooners appear to be a much better team than the Longhorns. OU, in the words of one columnist, stopped playing after fifty minutes in Boulder, whereas Texas broke down on special teams and turned the ball over at will. Bradford will bounce back, McCoy, err, well... OU 49 TX 10
Virginia Tech @ Clemson: The Tigers lost a lot of credibility in their 3-13 kicking meltdown loss in Atlanta. The weak ACC, sans BC (maybe), remains up for grabs, though. Clemson is a very good home team and the Hokies struggled to get past UNC last Saturday. Nonetheless, VT is a better team and Frank Beamer's crew will make the natives in Death Valley a bit more restless. VT 27 CLEM 20
Nebraska @ Missouri: For years, the black helmets have teased. For years, they've been exposed. As ugly as the Huskers have looked in the last few weeks, if they win in Columbia, they take a big step in claiming the Big 12 North. On the other hand, with COL and K-ST manning up last week, that division suddenly seems a trifle stronger. Look for a big day for Sam Keller as NEB gets back on (something of a) track, rolling to victory. NEB 45 MIZZ 23
Does this mean you have to rank them in the next poll?--ed No comment.
Cincinnati @ Rutgers: Are the Bearcats for real? Did Ohio State pick a good year to avoid the rompers from the 'Nati? The answer to the second one is yes. The first? Dominance looks good, but have they played anyone? Rutgers hasn't either, yet they were felled by the Terps--no the 2001 Orange Bowl participants didn't sneak back into Piscataway--when the Big East seemed theirs for the taking. RUT hosts WVA and LOU doesn't scare anyone, so a win here could lead them to a BCS game... where they'd get housed. RUT 23 CIN 20
Notre Dame @ UCLA: (Giggling) You may recall the Brady Quinn-led comeback to beat the Bruins in South Bend last year. You may also know that Quinn now totes a clipboard for the 2-2 Cleveland Browns--two more wins than the Irish currently possess. As ever, the second LA team remains an enigma: they looked great in three games and hideous in one. Seriously, 20 returning starters and a 6-44 loss in Salt Lake City, and not to Meyer's 2004 team??? Questions remain: will ND be favored against the Dookies later this year, and will USC go for 70? UCLA 28 ND 19
Heisman opportunity:
Andre' Woodson, UK: 275 yards pass, 2 TDs, 40 yards rush, TD
Tim Tebow, FLA: 250 yards pass, TD, 70 yards rush
A possibility exists that both top SEC signal-callers will exit the race after next weekend, which would boost the chances of both Mike Hart and Darren McFadden. H20 will get a little boost from breaking UM's all time rushing record. Yet, if both win, a showdown looms in Lexington this month.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of September 23
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Florida (-1)
5. California (+1)
6. West Virginia (-1)
7. Rutgers (+1)
8. Ohio State (+4)
9. Texas (NC)
10. Boston College (+4)
11. KENTUCKY!!! (+6)
12. Clemson (+4)
13. Georgia (+2)
14. Wisconsin (-4)
15. South Carolina (-4)
16. Oregon (+2)
17. South Florida (NR)
18. Virginia Tech (+3)
19. Missouri (NR)
20. Michigan (NR)
21. Penn State (-14)
22. Alabama (-9)
23. Purdue (NC)
24. Hawaii (NC)
25. Michigan State (NR)
Unceremoniously bounced: #19 (WVA is not happy) Louisville, #20 (OU is not happy) Texas A&M, #22 (Same as previous) Nebraska, and #25 (Nearing the end of D-Mac in big games) Arkansas
Valiant in defeat: #7 Penn State, #11 South Carolina, and #13 Alabama
On-field promotions: South Florida, Missouri, and MICHIGAN!
The Wisconsin Category (Unimpressive in victory): #3 Florida, #10 Wisconsin, and #22 Nebraska
Here comes... : California, Ohio State, Boston College, Clemson, and KENTUCKY!!!
Musings...
Most assuredly, the Bayou Bengals will lose #1 votes for defeating the Ole Ball Coach by "only" twelve points. Sigh. Make no mistake: the 'Cocks are Top-15 material... for another week at least :)
OMG!!! USC!!! OMG!!! USC!!! And you thought John David Booty's Heisman campaign had faded from memory. Well, two games now separate the Men of Troy from N'Orleans and an LSU beatdown, if Carroll's crew rips Oregon at Autzen and Cal in Berkeley, yes, even RT2020 will (redacted) Southern Cal nearly as much as the rest of punditdom.
Speaking of Cal, nice job in revenging an awful loss from last year, you know, the one that cost the Bears an outright Pac-10 championship. Yet to borrow a line from the song, it doesn't matter, no. It's USC, that and not pulling another Tedford special in a more nondescript game.
King Meyer, conqueror of Ohio State, didn't quite look like the best coach in America yesterday. Yes, it was on the road, yes it came after a dismantling of the artists formally known as Tennessee football, yes, Tebow is awesome. As the Tommy Lee Jones character once said, "I don't care." Champs, you ain't scaring the Tigers with this performance.
As for the Buckeyes, wait, was that #10 back on the field? Fitty again against the Wildcats, albeit a school dropped by D-OOOOOO-K? Yeah, not a lot learned here, but the D again showed some teeth. If they can hold Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan under 100 yards rushing, it's on to Pasadena.
And finally, YOOOOOOO-KAAAAAYYYYYY. First the bad news, 338 yards allowed on the ground (ugh) and twenty-two times the announcers piped, "Move the chains," (visions of a smiling Tim Tebow and Matt Flynn, aaargh!!!) with the white shirts on the field, even if the best tailback in the nation toted the rock that night. On the other hand, Andre' Woodson is rapidly becoming a very baaaad man. Do I have the homerism to put him #1 on my utterly meaningless unofficial Heisman ballot???
Stay tuned.
2. Southern California (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Florida (-1)
5. California (+1)
6. West Virginia (-1)
7. Rutgers (+1)
8. Ohio State (+4)
9. Texas (NC)
10. Boston College (+4)
11. KENTUCKY!!! (+6)
12. Clemson (+4)
13. Georgia (+2)
14. Wisconsin (-4)
15. South Carolina (-4)
16. Oregon (+2)
17. South Florida (NR)
18. Virginia Tech (+3)
19. Missouri (NR)
20. Michigan (NR)
21. Penn State (-14)
22. Alabama (-9)
23. Purdue (NC)
24. Hawaii (NC)
25. Michigan State (NR)
Unceremoniously bounced: #19 (WVA is not happy) Louisville, #20 (OU is not happy) Texas A&M, #22 (Same as previous) Nebraska, and #25 (Nearing the end of D-Mac in big games) Arkansas
Valiant in defeat: #7 Penn State, #11 South Carolina, and #13 Alabama
On-field promotions: South Florida, Missouri, and MICHIGAN!
The Wisconsin Category (Unimpressive in victory): #3 Florida, #10 Wisconsin, and #22 Nebraska
Here comes... : California, Ohio State, Boston College, Clemson, and KENTUCKY!!!
Musings...
Most assuredly, the Bayou Bengals will lose #1 votes for defeating the Ole Ball Coach by "only" twelve points. Sigh. Make no mistake: the 'Cocks are Top-15 material... for another week at least :)
OMG!!! USC!!! OMG!!! USC!!! And you thought John David Booty's Heisman campaign had faded from memory. Well, two games now separate the Men of Troy from N'Orleans and an LSU beatdown, if Carroll's crew rips Oregon at Autzen and Cal in Berkeley, yes, even RT2020 will (redacted) Southern Cal nearly as much as the rest of punditdom.
Speaking of Cal, nice job in revenging an awful loss from last year, you know, the one that cost the Bears an outright Pac-10 championship. Yet to borrow a line from the song, it doesn't matter, no. It's USC, that and not pulling another Tedford special in a more nondescript game.
King Meyer, conqueror of Ohio State, didn't quite look like the best coach in America yesterday. Yes, it was on the road, yes it came after a dismantling of the artists formally known as Tennessee football, yes, Tebow is awesome. As the Tommy Lee Jones character once said, "I don't care." Champs, you ain't scaring the Tigers with this performance.
As for the Buckeyes, wait, was that #10 back on the field? Fitty again against the Wildcats, albeit a school dropped by D-OOOOOO-K? Yeah, not a lot learned here, but the D again showed some teeth. If they can hold Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan under 100 yards rushing, it's on to Pasadena.
And finally, YOOOOOOO-KAAAAAYYYYYY. First the bad news, 338 yards allowed on the ground (ugh) and twenty-two times the announcers piped, "Move the chains," (visions of a smiling Tim Tebow and Matt Flynn, aaargh!!!) with the white shirts on the field, even if the best tailback in the nation toted the rock that night. On the other hand, Andre' Woodson is rapidly becoming a very baaaad man. Do I have the homerism to put him #1 on my utterly meaningless unofficial Heisman ballot???
Stay tuned.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Week 4 Preview: 'Cocks at the Rouge
Texas A&M @ Miami: Mercurial coach Denny Franchione, still best known for ditching Alabama after one campaign, has perhaps his finest team yet in College Station. Building off a tenure-guaranteeing win at Austin last autumn, the Aggies may challenge for a Big 12 South division championship. Well, if so, they need to show some maturity in winning against a good but not elite Miami team, last seen cowering before the Sooners. The Big 12 has taken some hits, and it's due for another one. I like the 'Canes in the upset, MIA 23 TAMU 21
South Carolina @ LSU: Like defense? Glenn Dorsey's crew has dominated three decent teams, but points from their prolific offense may prove difficult to come by against a fast, tough Gamecock D. On the other hand, while this is certainly the Bayou Bengals' roughest test until D-Day on the Sixth, and despite a clear coaching advantage, the Tigers are too good to slip up here, but it's tougher than anticipated, LSU 17 SoCaro 6
Penn State @ Michigan: Do you recollect the last time the Nittany Lions won against the Maize and Blue, how about 1996? Michigan has dominated and won the close ones, and the first step to determining the 2008 Rose Bowl loser is this contest at the Big House. I still love H20, and JoePa's defense has not impressed lately. PSU is good, yet not on the level of the 1994 team that won 31-24 in Ann Arbor, plus I'll take a freshman talent over the inconsistent Anthony Morrelli. MICH 31 PSU 14
Georgia @ Alabama: Richt's Dawgs invade Tuscaloosa to attempt to avoid a second conference loss, albeit out of division. The Tide have rolled thus far, but the escape over the Razorbacks last week raised some questions. I think UGA has the better team, yet the confines favor Nick Saban's team. Expect a nasty, low-scoring battle that may come down to a kick, edge, 'Bama. ALA 18 UGA 16
KENTUCKY @ Arkansas: Ahem, must maintain impartiality... Well, one team runs the ball as well as any in the country, and the other, despite having a great quarterback (who, by the way, if he played for ARK would have them undefeated and in the title chase), cannot stop the run at all. On the other hand, UK has had more success on the road here than anywhere else (outside of Mississippi) in conference. I picked UK over ARK in the preseason, and despite a likely 300 combined total yards from Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, the 'Cats can outscore this team. Andre' Woodson's legend continues to grow. UK 45 ARK 38
All in all, not a great slate of games, yet have no fear, D-Day is coming. So, too, is a Heisman update after the results of this coming Saturday.
South Carolina @ LSU: Like defense? Glenn Dorsey's crew has dominated three decent teams, but points from their prolific offense may prove difficult to come by against a fast, tough Gamecock D. On the other hand, while this is certainly the Bayou Bengals' roughest test until D-Day on the Sixth, and despite a clear coaching advantage, the Tigers are too good to slip up here, but it's tougher than anticipated, LSU 17 SoCaro 6
Penn State @ Michigan: Do you recollect the last time the Nittany Lions won against the Maize and Blue, how about 1996? Michigan has dominated and won the close ones, and the first step to determining the 2008 Rose Bowl loser is this contest at the Big House. I still love H20, and JoePa's defense has not impressed lately. PSU is good, yet not on the level of the 1994 team that won 31-24 in Ann Arbor, plus I'll take a freshman talent over the inconsistent Anthony Morrelli. MICH 31 PSU 14
Georgia @ Alabama: Richt's Dawgs invade Tuscaloosa to attempt to avoid a second conference loss, albeit out of division. The Tide have rolled thus far, but the escape over the Razorbacks last week raised some questions. I think UGA has the better team, yet the confines favor Nick Saban's team. Expect a nasty, low-scoring battle that may come down to a kick, edge, 'Bama. ALA 18 UGA 16
KENTUCKY @ Arkansas: Ahem, must maintain impartiality... Well, one team runs the ball as well as any in the country, and the other, despite having a great quarterback (who, by the way, if he played for ARK would have them undefeated and in the title chase), cannot stop the run at all. On the other hand, UK has had more success on the road here than anywhere else (outside of Mississippi) in conference. I picked UK over ARK in the preseason, and despite a likely 300 combined total yards from Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, the 'Cats can outscore this team. Andre' Woodson's legend continues to grow. UK 45 ARK 38
All in all, not a great slate of games, yet have no fear, D-Day is coming. So, too, is a Heisman update after the results of this coming Saturday.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Week 3 Preview: Licked at Lincoln?
Week 3 has a few games of note, and there's always a chance for a Top 15 to fall to an unranked one, but this is one of the last of the not-so impressive Saturdays.
USC @ Nebraska: Unquestionably, the game of the day. The issue before us is whether the Mighty ‘Huskers will ever "return" to college football’s elite. Their performance against Southern California last year bordered on disgraceful, perhaps the most glaring instance of a team not trying to win, but endeavoring only to avoid a knockout. Meanwhile, the Dynasty* certainly has followed the hosannas distributed to LSU after the Tigers swamped Virgina Tech. Booty v. Keller? Nope, can USC find someone in their well-documented tailback stable to rush for 100 yards? I think the Trojans will miss Jarrett and Smith in this game, and look for Sam Keller to begin his push to earn a place in New York City. Nebraska 27 USC 24
Tennessee @ Florida: In 2001, owing in large part to 9/11 (this game has been a September tradition for some time), these two teams played one of the best college football games of this century, as the Vols won for the first time in a generation at the Swamp. They will need the effort of a Travis Stephens-like back and much more to beat Urban Meyer’s champions. Tennessee can get right back into the SEC race and the national conversation with a win, but if Longshore of Cal made their defense look pedestrian, what will Tebow do? A lot. What will his defense do? Enough. The rapidly-becoming-legendary coach remains unbeaten against the Gators' top two rivals. Florida 35 Tennessee 20
Louisville @ Kentucky: Andre’ Woodson has played most of his sterling career in the shadow of Brian Brohm. Perhaps for the final time, the two QBs will square off in a game not likely to see much defense. UK should prove tired of getting embarrassed by the ‘Ville, but a D that allowed over 300 yards to Kent State on the ground looks too unsteady to keep the Cardinals under fifty. Can Woodson outduel Brohm? Winner takes an important step as far as awards go. Bobby Petrino and Michael Bush are gone, but their legacy, unfortunately, lives on. Louisville 56 Kentucky 45
Ohio State @ Washington: Whilst a certain school from South Bend is ducking for cover, Tyrone Willingham’s current team has beaten a former power and a rising power in the last two weeks. Is this the best U-Dub group since 2000? At QB, more than likely. The Buckeye defense, however, has held opponents to just two field goals in two home contests. The X-Factor, which should surprise no one, is Chris Wells. Beanie started to get loose in the second half last week, but this OSU offense is probably not yet functional enough to execute in a hostile environment. Despite a 9-3 cumulative mark, Ohio State has had some ugly games here (remember 1986)? It won’t get that bad, but, Washington 23 Ohio State 9
Arkansas @ Alabama: Darren McFadden’s road to the Heisman and to the Cleveland Browns as #1 overall draft choice begins here with a roadie against the resurgent Tide. ‘Bama hosts both the Hogs and the Bayou Bengals, and judging by Auburn’s recent woes, may have an outside chance to capture the SEC West, or perhaps more. Whatever his shenanigans, Nick Saban is one of the ten best college football coaches in America (Carroll, Meyer, Spurrier, Miles, Stoops, Tressel, Schiano, Rodriguez, and Tedford are the others), but even with the friendly folks of Tuscaloosa, D-Mac and Jones should have their way. Arkansas 28 Alabama 20
Notre Dame @ Michigan: 0-2 v. 0-2. I have gone from picking the Maize and Blue to win all of their regular season games by roughly two touchdowns to taking them against Oregon by four TDs to sheepishly wondering if I should pick another UM game all season. Ah, but there’s always ND. The once-glorious (circa 1993) Fightin’ Irish boast an offensive resume with more sacks allowed than points scored. An otherwise meaningless game does merit intrigue if it pits Ryan Mallet of Michigan against "Jimmah" Clausen of Notre Dame—possibly, the first of three such matchups, presumably with more on the line in later years. Strange series, the last few years. UM has hammered ND (2003, 2006) or frittered away close games (2002, 2004, 2005) to the opportunistic Irish. RT2020 doesn’t see how the Weissers do any better against Mario Manningham then last year. If Michigan fails to net forty, more questions should be raised. Fifteen, though, will do it. Michigan 47 Notre Dame 21, hmmm... seen that one somewhere before.
USC @ Nebraska: Unquestionably, the game of the day. The issue before us is whether the Mighty ‘Huskers will ever "return" to college football’s elite. Their performance against Southern California last year bordered on disgraceful, perhaps the most glaring instance of a team not trying to win, but endeavoring only to avoid a knockout. Meanwhile, the Dynasty* certainly has followed the hosannas distributed to LSU after the Tigers swamped Virgina Tech. Booty v. Keller? Nope, can USC find someone in their well-documented tailback stable to rush for 100 yards? I think the Trojans will miss Jarrett and Smith in this game, and look for Sam Keller to begin his push to earn a place in New York City. Nebraska 27 USC 24
Tennessee @ Florida: In 2001, owing in large part to 9/11 (this game has been a September tradition for some time), these two teams played one of the best college football games of this century, as the Vols won for the first time in a generation at the Swamp. They will need the effort of a Travis Stephens-like back and much more to beat Urban Meyer’s champions. Tennessee can get right back into the SEC race and the national conversation with a win, but if Longshore of Cal made their defense look pedestrian, what will Tebow do? A lot. What will his defense do? Enough. The rapidly-becoming-legendary coach remains unbeaten against the Gators' top two rivals. Florida 35 Tennessee 20
Louisville @ Kentucky: Andre’ Woodson has played most of his sterling career in the shadow of Brian Brohm. Perhaps for the final time, the two QBs will square off in a game not likely to see much defense. UK should prove tired of getting embarrassed by the ‘Ville, but a D that allowed over 300 yards to Kent State on the ground looks too unsteady to keep the Cardinals under fifty. Can Woodson outduel Brohm? Winner takes an important step as far as awards go. Bobby Petrino and Michael Bush are gone, but their legacy, unfortunately, lives on. Louisville 56 Kentucky 45
Ohio State @ Washington: Whilst a certain school from South Bend is ducking for cover, Tyrone Willingham’s current team has beaten a former power and a rising power in the last two weeks. Is this the best U-Dub group since 2000? At QB, more than likely. The Buckeye defense, however, has held opponents to just two field goals in two home contests. The X-Factor, which should surprise no one, is Chris Wells. Beanie started to get loose in the second half last week, but this OSU offense is probably not yet functional enough to execute in a hostile environment. Despite a 9-3 cumulative mark, Ohio State has had some ugly games here (remember 1986)? It won’t get that bad, but, Washington 23 Ohio State 9
Arkansas @ Alabama: Darren McFadden’s road to the Heisman and to the Cleveland Browns as #1 overall draft choice begins here with a roadie against the resurgent Tide. ‘Bama hosts both the Hogs and the Bayou Bengals, and judging by Auburn’s recent woes, may have an outside chance to capture the SEC West, or perhaps more. Whatever his shenanigans, Nick Saban is one of the ten best college football coaches in America (Carroll, Meyer, Spurrier, Miles, Stoops, Tressel, Schiano, Rodriguez, and Tedford are the others), but even with the friendly folks of Tuscaloosa, D-Mac and Jones should have their way. Arkansas 28 Alabama 20
Notre Dame @ Michigan: 0-2 v. 0-2. I have gone from picking the Maize and Blue to win all of their regular season games by roughly two touchdowns to taking them against Oregon by four TDs to sheepishly wondering if I should pick another UM game all season. Ah, but there’s always ND. The once-glorious (circa 1993) Fightin’ Irish boast an offensive resume with more sacks allowed than points scored. An otherwise meaningless game does merit intrigue if it pits Ryan Mallet of Michigan against "Jimmah" Clausen of Notre Dame—possibly, the first of three such matchups, presumably with more on the line in later years. Strange series, the last few years. UM has hammered ND (2003, 2006) or frittered away close games (2002, 2004, 2005) to the opportunistic Irish. RT2020 doesn’t see how the Weissers do any better against Mario Manningham then last year. If Michigan fails to net forty, more questions should be raised. Fifteen, though, will do it. Michigan 47 Notre Dame 21, hmmm... seen that one somewhere before.
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Week 2 Preview: Warming Up
After rising Big East powers Louisville and Rutgers do nothing to imperil their Top-20 status on Thursday and Friday respectively, the college football season can officially begin eliminating the pretenders.
Games of Note:
#9 Virginia Tech (too high) @ #2 LSU (too low): Frank Beamer's emotional Hokies are usually a tough out, but an inability to score twenty points on East Carolina last week does not bode well against the best defense in the nation. Whilst the Tigers offense is a work in progress, particularly on the ground, twenty points should do it, though it could prove a struggle for three quarters. LSU is too fast, too motivated, and too talented to let an overrated ACC school ruin their September. LSU 30 VT 9
NR Miami (too low) @ #5 Oklahoma (too high): Finally, after twenty years and a near miss to close the 2000 season, the "U" and Boomer meet up again in Norman. Sooner fans have good memories of the last season Oklahoma hosted Miami, for it proved a national title year--even if Miami won the game (1985). Barry Switzer's boys won every game from 1985-1987, except for three, all against one school. Nonetheless, is Randy Shannon's group ready for this game? Not yet. OU 24 MIA 10*
#19 TCU (too high) @ #7 Texas (just right): After a sleepy second half against Arkansas State, one would think Colt McCoy and the Longhorn offense is rarin' to go in one of the few games Texas could lose this season. Yet, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year must show more than last week, because TCU is a very good team. Not good enough in Austin, however. TX 37 TCU 10, in a bounce-back game for TX.
NR South Carolina (too low) @ #11 Georgia (also too low): No matter the records, this early SEC clash is almost always a nail-biter, and the Gamecocks almost always end up losing it. Spurrier's troops didn't play especially well in a functional DNP environment last week, and Georgia's win over Okie State was one of the better performances of the week. Still, the 'Cocks are coming, ahem, and while I am reasonably high on the 'Dawgs to play for the SEC East title in Jacksonville, they could drop this one. Same old story, however. GA 21 SC 16
NR Notre Dame (too low) @ #14 Penn State (about right): Revenge is a dish best served cold, beware also of Nittany Lion nation under the lights. PSU crushed their opponent last week and may indeed have Big 10 title aspirations for the second time in three seasons, ND, well, the less said about GT's thirty-point win the better. I don't see a 1992-esque ending here. PSU 41 ND 14, give Clausen a few nice plays and JoePa calls off the dogs early.
NR Oregon (about right) @ #5... err.. NR Michigan ('nuff said): Four years ago, the Wolverines blew a national title opportunity with a series of special-teams breakdowns in Eugene, losing to the hideously dressed Ducks of Bellotti. After a week in crisis, Michigan's "O" should not have a problem moving the football, but Oregon QB Dennis Dixon runs the spread offense, uh oh... Nah, I said four touchdowns and I'll stick to it, entertaining game, no doubt. UM 49 ORE 21, another Heisman day for #20. They'll move to #15 in my poll if they achieve that result.
All in all, not a bad weekend of college football: five games of significant to serious interest and another opportunity to see the Fightin' Irish housed on national television. What could prove better than that?
As to the Heisman Trophy, I've offered my preview and more or less believe we need at least a few weeks to shake out the contenders. I want to see Brian Brohm against an SEC defense (sorta) in Lexington, or John David Booty in Lincoln, before I can fairly assess their chances at the Big Award. Likewise, I don't care what Pat White and Steve Slaton do against anyone other than Louisville and Rutgers, especially the former, in Morgantown. I will say that I've refused to throw Mike Hart of Michigan off the list because of his team's 32-34 debacle against App-y State, without his second half presence Michigan loses by at least ten points, H20 almost saved the day. Romp over Penn State and he'll be right back in it.
* Exact opposite of the 1986 game in the Orange Bowl when #1 Oklahoma fell to the Canes.
Games of Note:
#9 Virginia Tech (too high) @ #2 LSU (too low): Frank Beamer's emotional Hokies are usually a tough out, but an inability to score twenty points on East Carolina last week does not bode well against the best defense in the nation. Whilst the Tigers offense is a work in progress, particularly on the ground, twenty points should do it, though it could prove a struggle for three quarters. LSU is too fast, too motivated, and too talented to let an overrated ACC school ruin their September. LSU 30 VT 9
NR Miami (too low) @ #5 Oklahoma (too high): Finally, after twenty years and a near miss to close the 2000 season, the "U" and Boomer meet up again in Norman. Sooner fans have good memories of the last season Oklahoma hosted Miami, for it proved a national title year--even if Miami won the game (1985). Barry Switzer's boys won every game from 1985-1987, except for three, all against one school. Nonetheless, is Randy Shannon's group ready for this game? Not yet. OU 24 MIA 10*
#19 TCU (too high) @ #7 Texas (just right): After a sleepy second half against Arkansas State, one would think Colt McCoy and the Longhorn offense is rarin' to go in one of the few games Texas could lose this season. Yet, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year must show more than last week, because TCU is a very good team. Not good enough in Austin, however. TX 37 TCU 10, in a bounce-back game for TX.
NR South Carolina (too low) @ #11 Georgia (also too low): No matter the records, this early SEC clash is almost always a nail-biter, and the Gamecocks almost always end up losing it. Spurrier's troops didn't play especially well in a functional DNP environment last week, and Georgia's win over Okie State was one of the better performances of the week. Still, the 'Cocks are coming, ahem, and while I am reasonably high on the 'Dawgs to play for the SEC East title in Jacksonville, they could drop this one. Same old story, however. GA 21 SC 16
NR Notre Dame (too low) @ #14 Penn State (about right): Revenge is a dish best served cold, beware also of Nittany Lion nation under the lights. PSU crushed their opponent last week and may indeed have Big 10 title aspirations for the second time in three seasons, ND, well, the less said about GT's thirty-point win the better. I don't see a 1992-esque ending here. PSU 41 ND 14, give Clausen a few nice plays and JoePa calls off the dogs early.
NR Oregon (about right) @ #5... err.. NR Michigan ('nuff said): Four years ago, the Wolverines blew a national title opportunity with a series of special-teams breakdowns in Eugene, losing to the hideously dressed Ducks of Bellotti. After a week in crisis, Michigan's "O" should not have a problem moving the football, but Oregon QB Dennis Dixon runs the spread offense, uh oh... Nah, I said four touchdowns and I'll stick to it, entertaining game, no doubt. UM 49 ORE 21, another Heisman day for #20. They'll move to #15 in my poll if they achieve that result.
All in all, not a bad weekend of college football: five games of significant to serious interest and another opportunity to see the Fightin' Irish housed on national television. What could prove better than that?
As to the Heisman Trophy, I've offered my preview and more or less believe we need at least a few weeks to shake out the contenders. I want to see Brian Brohm against an SEC defense (sorta) in Lexington, or John David Booty in Lincoln, before I can fairly assess their chances at the Big Award. Likewise, I don't care what Pat White and Steve Slaton do against anyone other than Louisville and Rutgers, especially the former, in Morgantown. I will say that I've refused to throw Mike Hart of Michigan off the list because of his team's 32-34 debacle against App-y State, without his second half presence Michigan loses by at least ten points, H20 almost saved the day. Romp over Penn State and he'll be right back in it.
* Exact opposite of the 1986 game in the Orange Bowl when #1 Oklahoma fell to the Canes.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of September 2
Note: I should have this completed by Sundays in the future.
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Florida (+2)
3. Southern California (+2)
4. Wisconsin (+2)
5. West Virginia (+2)
6. Appalachian State (NR)
7. Texas (-4)
8. Georgia (+1)
9. UCLA (+1)
10. Louisville (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+2)
12. Penn State (+3)
13. Nebraska (-2)
14. Rutgers (NC)
15. California (+6)
16. Ohio State (+2)
17. Boise State (+2)
18. Virginia Tech (-1)
19. Oregon State (+4)
20. South Carolina (NC)
21. Miami (+4)
22. Arkansas (+2)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Alabama (NR)
25. TCU (NR)
Dropped out: #2 Michigan, #8 Florida State, #16 Tennessee, and #22 Auburn
Watch out: Georgia Tech, Washington, Texas A&M, Oregon, and Clemson
Risers: Appalachian State, California, Oregon State, and Miami
Fallers: Texas, plus losing teams
Well, eight of my top ten survived opening week, what is that an 80% proficiency rating? Ugh. True, I could've been more charitable to the Volunteers, but allowing forty-five points in any setting is not grounds for a moral victory. We've covered Michigan's woes earlier, yet Florida State, deigning to show observers the 'Noles were "back," did not show up ready in Death Valley. Clemson may prove very good, but no defense should hold FSU to ONE first down and fewer than seventy yards in a half, save for Florida 2006 or LSU 2007. Atrocious. Jimbo Fisher left the sweets of Baton Rouge for this?!? Auburn's lackluster win over K-State simply did not impress, yet they're still a contender in the SEC West.
The more I see of Colt Brennan, yes, mere highlights, the more I am persuaded Pro Bowls are in his future. Can he win the Heisman though? John David Booty and the Trojans yawned through Idaho, but their big games are fast approaching. Some would quibble with App-y State ranked in the Top 10, yet I don't believe anyone else will win in Michigan Stadium this year. Texas never felt in danger of losing to Arkansas State, yet when your comparables ring up the cash register, well, 21-13 on your home field drops you a few spots, nothing a third straight conquering of OU won't cure though.
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Florida (+2)
3. Southern California (+2)
4. Wisconsin (+2)
5. West Virginia (+2)
6. Appalachian State (NR)
7. Texas (-4)
8. Georgia (+1)
9. UCLA (+1)
10. Louisville (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+2)
12. Penn State (+3)
13. Nebraska (-2)
14. Rutgers (NC)
15. California (+6)
16. Ohio State (+2)
17. Boise State (+2)
18. Virginia Tech (-1)
19. Oregon State (+4)
20. South Carolina (NC)
21. Miami (+4)
22. Arkansas (+2)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Alabama (NR)
25. TCU (NR)
Dropped out: #2 Michigan, #8 Florida State, #16 Tennessee, and #22 Auburn
Watch out: Georgia Tech, Washington, Texas A&M, Oregon, and Clemson
Risers: Appalachian State, California, Oregon State, and Miami
Fallers: Texas, plus losing teams
Well, eight of my top ten survived opening week, what is that an 80% proficiency rating? Ugh. True, I could've been more charitable to the Volunteers, but allowing forty-five points in any setting is not grounds for a moral victory. We've covered Michigan's woes earlier, yet Florida State, deigning to show observers the 'Noles were "back," did not show up ready in Death Valley. Clemson may prove very good, but no defense should hold FSU to ONE first down and fewer than seventy yards in a half, save for Florida 2006 or LSU 2007. Atrocious. Jimbo Fisher left the sweets of Baton Rouge for this?!? Auburn's lackluster win over K-State simply did not impress, yet they're still a contender in the SEC West.
The more I see of Colt Brennan, yes, mere highlights, the more I am persuaded Pro Bowls are in his future. Can he win the Heisman though? John David Booty and the Trojans yawned through Idaho, but their big games are fast approaching. Some would quibble with App-y State ranked in the Top 10, yet I don't believe anyone else will win in Michigan Stadium this year. Texas never felt in danger of losing to Arkansas State, yet when your comparables ring up the cash register, well, 21-13 on your home field drops you a few spots, nothing a third straight conquering of OU won't cure though.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
2007 UK Prognostication
The Road to Further Respectability:
v. Eastern Kentucky
v. Kent State
v. Louisville
@ Arkansas
v. Florida Atlantic
@ South Carolina
v. LSU
v. Florida
v. Mississippi State
@ Vanderbilt
@ Georgia
v. Tennessee
Should win: EKU, KSU, FA, MSU
Excellent, four-and-oh, where do I sign up? Seriously, all four games are at home, and while Florida Atlantic may boast better athletes they're not as formidable on the road. Look for Andre' Woodson to boost his numbers against this contingent, especially early.
Could win: LOU, SoCaro, Vandy
Louisville has owned the Cats for some time now, but without Michael Bush, I think they are ripe for the picking, especially with Woodson, especially at home. On a personal note: I attended both South Carolina games in my four years, both times the crafty Lou Holtz pulled out a victory at night. I admire their defense a great deal, but UK should have a chance here. Vanderbilt, by a country mile, is the top academic school in the conference, which usually translates into football futility. Recently, however, they've made strides. True, this is a road game, but the All America quarterback can get it done here.
Underdog: ARK, TEN
Darren McFadden is probably worth tanking the 2006 NFL season for any number of teams with no shot to hold the Lombardi Trophy in February. He will return to New York for the Heisman ceremony (though he won't win it). Nonetheless, I don't see Arkansas reprising their near miracle run through the SEC; LSU and Florida delivered reality checks to close the year, and the Hogs even fell to the Mystery Men from Madison. It's a roadie, and D-Mac could run for 250 yards... at the end of three quarters. Still, UK has a credible shot here.
ESPN Radio's Colin Cowherd, blogosphere favorite, thinks Tennesee is treading backward, losing close games, underachieving, etc. I don't know if I agree, given how close the Vols were to upending Florida and their super performance down in Athens last year. Besides, UK is always an underdog in this "clash," but with the setting of Commonwealth Stadium there is no reason why UK shouldn't put up a real fight here.
Significant Underdog: LSU, FLA
Two weeks running, yikes. Fortunately, both are at home, where, alas, UK has a history (LSU 2001, 2002; FLA 2003) of honking winnable home games against the current top-two of the SEC. Both schools boast incredible speed and athleticism, but both are breaking in new QBs, though Tebow may not fit that description entirely. Woodson's Heisman campaign ends with these two games.
This Will Not End Well: GA
It will require substantial maturity for the Cats not to get taken behind the woodshed in Athens. Georgia looks to return to their 2002-2005 form, after an uneven run last year. Good thing: it is the penultimate game of the season, which means a thirty-point shellacking will not scar the team and spike an otherwise promising year. Bad thing: Tennessee is next, and UK may need that one for a New Year's Day bowl.
Forecast: I've haven't been this optimistic in years. Despite my antipathy toward Coach Brooks, this team may win nine games (or more) in spite of his inferior coaching. South Carolina and Arkansas are the two biggest games of the year, both are on hostile terrain, and both rank slightly above UK in the SEC pecking order. One win is an absolute must, two would probably rate a bowl upgrade.
v. Eastern Kentucky (+20)
v. Kent State (+14)
v. Louisville (-4)
@ Arkansas (+7)
v. Florida Atlantic (+15)
@ South Carolina (-10)
v. LSU (-21)
v. Florida (-13)
v. Mississippi State (+31)
@ Vanderbilt (+14)
@ Georgia (-35)
v. Tennessee (-3)
6-6. Ugh. What about all that "optimism"? Well, Louisville still has an advantage in pure talent, to say nothing of LSU and Florida--and those are home tilts. I like the Cats in Fayetteville, but not Columbia. Coach Spurrier's recruiting classes will prove just a step or two away from the SEC elite this season. I think Tennessee will disappoint the most, particulary since the Vols don't seem ticketed for a big year.
Will this warrant a bowl? I don't know, but it starkly illustrates the prodigious challenge ahead of UK Football even in a year with a possible All-SEC performer at QB and eight(!) home games. They might prove just a few plays away from 9-3, but I don't see enough right now to warrant a better year than the one prior.
v. Eastern Kentucky
v. Kent State
v. Louisville
@ Arkansas
v. Florida Atlantic
@ South Carolina
v. LSU
v. Florida
v. Mississippi State
@ Vanderbilt
@ Georgia
v. Tennessee
Should win: EKU, KSU, FA, MSU
Excellent, four-and-oh, where do I sign up? Seriously, all four games are at home, and while Florida Atlantic may boast better athletes they're not as formidable on the road. Look for Andre' Woodson to boost his numbers against this contingent, especially early.
Could win: LOU, SoCaro, Vandy
Louisville has owned the Cats for some time now, but without Michael Bush, I think they are ripe for the picking, especially with Woodson, especially at home. On a personal note: I attended both South Carolina games in my four years, both times the crafty Lou Holtz pulled out a victory at night. I admire their defense a great deal, but UK should have a chance here. Vanderbilt, by a country mile, is the top academic school in the conference, which usually translates into football futility. Recently, however, they've made strides. True, this is a road game, but the All America quarterback can get it done here.
Underdog: ARK, TEN
Darren McFadden is probably worth tanking the 2006 NFL season for any number of teams with no shot to hold the Lombardi Trophy in February. He will return to New York for the Heisman ceremony (though he won't win it). Nonetheless, I don't see Arkansas reprising their near miracle run through the SEC; LSU and Florida delivered reality checks to close the year, and the Hogs even fell to the Mystery Men from Madison. It's a roadie, and D-Mac could run for 250 yards... at the end of three quarters. Still, UK has a credible shot here.
ESPN Radio's Colin Cowherd, blogosphere favorite, thinks Tennesee is treading backward, losing close games, underachieving, etc. I don't know if I agree, given how close the Vols were to upending Florida and their super performance down in Athens last year. Besides, UK is always an underdog in this "clash," but with the setting of Commonwealth Stadium there is no reason why UK shouldn't put up a real fight here.
Significant Underdog: LSU, FLA
Two weeks running, yikes. Fortunately, both are at home, where, alas, UK has a history (LSU 2001, 2002; FLA 2003) of honking winnable home games against the current top-two of the SEC. Both schools boast incredible speed and athleticism, but both are breaking in new QBs, though Tebow may not fit that description entirely. Woodson's Heisman campaign ends with these two games.
This Will Not End Well: GA
It will require substantial maturity for the Cats not to get taken behind the woodshed in Athens. Georgia looks to return to their 2002-2005 form, after an uneven run last year. Good thing: it is the penultimate game of the season, which means a thirty-point shellacking will not scar the team and spike an otherwise promising year. Bad thing: Tennessee is next, and UK may need that one for a New Year's Day bowl.
Forecast: I've haven't been this optimistic in years. Despite my antipathy toward Coach Brooks, this team may win nine games (or more) in spite of his inferior coaching. South Carolina and Arkansas are the two biggest games of the year, both are on hostile terrain, and both rank slightly above UK in the SEC pecking order. One win is an absolute must, two would probably rate a bowl upgrade.
v. Eastern Kentucky (+20)
v. Kent State (+14)
v. Louisville (-4)
@ Arkansas (+7)
v. Florida Atlantic (+15)
@ South Carolina (-10)
v. LSU (-21)
v. Florida (-13)
v. Mississippi State (+31)
@ Vanderbilt (+14)
@ Georgia (-35)
v. Tennessee (-3)
6-6. Ugh. What about all that "optimism"? Well, Louisville still has an advantage in pure talent, to say nothing of LSU and Florida--and those are home tilts. I like the Cats in Fayetteville, but not Columbia. Coach Spurrier's recruiting classes will prove just a step or two away from the SEC elite this season. I think Tennessee will disappoint the most, particulary since the Vols don't seem ticketed for a big year.
Will this warrant a bowl? I don't know, but it starkly illustrates the prodigious challenge ahead of UK Football even in a year with a possible All-SEC performer at QB and eight(!) home games. They might prove just a few plays away from 9-3, but I don't see enough right now to warrant a better year than the one prior.
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