Last year, on a now-defunct blog, I boldly predicted, before their dismantling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, the 2007 national champion: LSU. I picked the Bayou Bengals irrespective of projected first-round draft choice losses to include their star quarterback due to a perceived friendly schedule buttressed by a virtual home-game in the BCS Championship.
Looking pretty good right about now. Yes, it took some resistance to the massive, heavily-overblown hype emanating from Los Angeles, but I stuck to my guns, and even predicted a two-loss season for the USC Trojans. Also, correct. Obviously, I didn't foresee two losses for the Tigers, particularly the last one, at home, to Arkansas, but this season proved the one for such a resume. Now, for all my USC criticism, I actually like them quite a bit next season, provided they beat the Buckeyes in a huge September game at the Coliseum.
All of the rough roadies (Eugene, Tempe) are home games and if Notre Dame has improved at all, that one is also in Los Angeles. Arizona State might improve some more, Oregon is headed for a fall, NO ONE should trust California, Washington will get better, Oregon State never starts out quickly enough, and it's very hard to see another 8-1 team in the Pac-10. Stanford? Jim Harbaugh's team will likely make strides too, but if they finish 6-3 in conference play, well, he should win Coach of the Year honors.
Mark Sanchez, now a little older (presumably, he stays heathly) emerges as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate to battle Ohio State's Chris Wells and of course the defending champion from Gainesville, plus the prodigious depth and newfound experience of their wide receivers. I would expect the defense, whilst losing some key players, to continue to have little trouble in conference play and likely with Todd Boeckman (unless the latter comes up big in the Not Sugar).
Their Road to the Not Orange (along with RT2020 spread):
@ Virginia (-13)
v. Ohio State (-9)
@ Oregon State (-5)
v. Oregon (-18)
v. Arizona State (-14)
@ Washington State (-20)
@ Arizona (-14)
v. Washington (-4)
v. California (-21)
@ Stanford (-20)
v. Notre Dame (-24)
@ UCLA (-13)
A solid favorite in every matchup, pending, once again, the result of Ohio State's game against LSU. If the Buckeyes win, that game in LA is a toss up, if not slightly more than a touchdown. I actually think U-Dub, with Locker a year older, could pose the most significant threat, particularly because USC might overlook them if California is off to a nice start. Their first three tilts, however, are brutal. USC's last trip to Corvallis ended with a loss, but I can easily see the Trojans still winning comfortably. Once more, six road clashes, which we should commend, but not as unruly as 2007 (even if NEB and ND fell on their faces). After smashing Illinois, they will have a haunting memory of the Stanford game that cost them a chance to beat Ohio State... unless of course all the media outlets again go gaga over this team and project them to beat 1995 Nebraska.
Twelve-and-oh, mark it down. So, who will they play? A rematch with Ohio State is not out of the question (the Bucks host both Penn State and Michigan), if the game is close and the Big 10 fields at least one other ten-win team. I don't think so, however, as I think the other slot to the Orange is coming out of the SEC (of course).
And that team is the one with the best player and the best coach in America.
The Gator Slate:
v. Hawaii (-27)
v. Miami (-30)
@ Tennessee (-10)
v. Ole Miss (-31)
@ Arkansas (-24)
v. LSU (-13)
v. Kentucky (-30)
n. Georgia (-3)
@ Vanderbilt (-21)
v. South Carolina (-7)
v. Citadel (-45)
@ Florida State (-27)
n. Auburn (-17, projected SEC West opponent in Atlanta)
Hurrah, no Auburn! And just four road games. The early test in Knoxville should tell the tale. Tennessee, utterly trashed by #15 in 2007, will show some pride next season--but I'm not persuaded that the Vols, ten years removed from their last conference championship, are good enough to beat Florida. The Gators will have a more experienced defense, a better Percy Harvin, and perhaps (finally) a true running back to take some pressure off Tebow. Sans Colt Brennan, even a Rainbow Warrior team that clips Georgia will have no chance at the Swamp. The battle with Georgia will determine control of the SEC East and perhaps the national title race, which will hinge on whether the Gator defense has stiffened enough not to allow Georgia's sensational sophomore tailback, echoes of Walker and Hearst, to run through them again. LSU will drop, UK will plummet, good year to play Miami, but watch out for the crafty OBC late in the year. The Citadel game, alone, gives USC's schedule a big edge, and the absence of Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama leave this slate highly likely to finish with nary a blemish.
Thirteen-and-oh, and at least another NYC trip for Tim Tebow. Barring a total calamity in the Capital One, I will place Florida at #1 in the 2008 preseason poll, if this blog runs that far. It is possible even a loss to Georgia, provided the Dawgs fall twice in the SEC, wouldn't keep Florida out of their first Orange Bowl since 2001. Seven years prior to next season, in Steve Spurrier's last campaign, the Mighty Gators also opened at #1, and as mentioned previously, no Auburn to ruin things... at least not until Championship Saturday.
Bottom line: Unless the Superhero QB goes down for an extended time in at least one game, this team has 70/30 odds to run the table and perhaps 80/20 to reach Miami. FLA's offense will rate as the country's best, which means an improved D will only need to keep one team (UGA) below twenty-four. Given the coaching abilities of Meyer, his team should complete just the second undefeated SEC run since 1998 (Auburn, of course, 2004).
So, Florida #1, USC #2, what about anyone else? Or is this a reprisal of 2004-05, when the top two team stayed 1-2 all season long? We briefly referenced Georgia as perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Gators, what of their schedule?
v. Georgia Southern (-31)
v. Central Michigan (-24)
@ South Carolina (Even)
@ Arizona State!!! (-3)
v. Alabama (-8)
Bye
v. Tennessee (-14)
v. Vanderbilt (-21)
@ LSU (Even)
n. Florida (+3)
@ Kentucky (-30)
@ Auburn (Even)
Bye
v. Georgia Tech (-17)
At first glance, too difficult. How about that two-week quinella of Columbia and Tempe? Yikes. The game with SoCaro, especially since the OBC rolled into town, is always a vicious contest with few touchdowns. I suspect ASU will drop off, but I maintain winning on the road, presumably this one will take place under the lights, in Sun Devil Stadium is one the toughest tests for any team, Pac-10 or otherwise. Then come Alabama and a revenge match against the Vols. After a semi-breather against Vandy (don't get caught looking ahead!) the monster showdowns occur at the Rouge and J'ville. If that wasn't enough, Auburn lurks toward the end. Verdict: 10-2 if they're lucky, but a win over Florida would likely send them to Atlanta so long as they lost only one SEC contest. Unless the defense truly raises their level of play and they can get consistent play from signal-caller Matt Stafford, not a viable championship game threat, though probably a return trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Top 5 ranking in the final Bowl Championship Series.
Oklahoma? Yes, a real threat, and a bit of a break in not seeing Missouri in the regular season--even though the Sooners own them for all intents and purposes. I cannot find their complete schedule, but a 12-1 season is well within reach, possibly more if Sam Bradford continues his improvement.
Finally, a dark horse candidate in Morgantown, especially if Terry Bowden ends up the next coach at West Virginia. If Steve Slaton and Patrick White remain, plus Noel Devine, don't but it past the new boss. Remember Auburn '93? Then-new coach Bowden rode Patrick Nix, Stephen Davis, and Frank Sanders to an 11-0 mark punctuated by enormous wins over Florida (the SEC champ) and Alabama (bitter rival and SEC West champ) despite probation. He could do it again. The biggest problem is Auburn, the first game for the Mountaineers of 2008. The entire schedule does look inviting, with a possible danger in Boulder. A dark horse, but with the right coach, a threat nonetheless.
Super-Early Top 5:
1. Florida (14-0)
2. Southern California (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (13-1)
4. Georgia (11-3)
5. Ohio State (11-2)
BCS Championship: #1 Florida v. #2 USC = FLA 41 USC 28
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma v. Georgia (at-large) = OU 19 UGA 7
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia = VT 31 WVA 24
Fiesta Bowl: Illinois (at-large) v. Missouri (at-large) = ILL 21 MIZZ 10
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Arizona State (at-large) = OSU 24 ASU 23
Super-Early Top 5 Heisman:
1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (if 13-0, will not be denied a second trophy)
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (chance if UGA beats FLA)
3. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State (needs huge game at USC)
4. Patrick White, QB, West Virginia (last chance for WVA to fulfill promise)
5. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (your 2009 winner?)
Showing posts with label South Florida. Show all posts
Showing posts with label South Florida. Show all posts
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Monday, October 15, 2007
Undefeated Suckeyes: Guaranteed Shot?
Oops, pardon my imitation of the college football world less than pleased at the prospect of another appearance by The Ohio State University in a BCS Championship Game. The Buckeyes, as last year, debuted at #1 in the BCS Standings, due to their strength over South Florida in the polls, which, essentially, owes to their higher preseason ranking (#11).
RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.
So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.
In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:
1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1
Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:
1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2
Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.
Again:
1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0
Aggregate: 10-2
1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1
Aggregate: 4-8
Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.
Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.
We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.
Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?
Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...
If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.
Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.
Others...
South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!
Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.
If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.
Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.
RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.
So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.
In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:
1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1
Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:
1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2
Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.
Again:
1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0
Aggregate: 10-2
1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1
Aggregate: 4-8
Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.
Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.
We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.
Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?
Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...
If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.
Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.
Others...
South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!
Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.
If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.
Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Goodbye to All That
Hey y'all, holler at the farmer, 'cause the chicken laid another egg.
At the outset, congratulations to the supremely opportunistic Bulls, without question, they will warrant Top 10 status in the next round of polls. Florida kids, it goes without saying, have no peer for speed and quickness--and there are a whole lot of youngsters in the Sunshine State that can play football. Are they a national title contender? Well, we could say that a hypothetical OSU/WIS v. RUT/USF poll battle would prove quite interesting, especially if also matched against a one-loss USC team for the right to play the SEC champion (the winner of the nation's best conference is always guaranteed a title shot, didn't you know that?). In order...
1) A one-loss USC team
2) An undefeated Rutgers or South Florida team
3) An undefeated Wisconsin or Ohio State team
4) An undefeated Oklahoma team, unless Texas wins out
Of course, an LSU/FLA split would create quite a bit of chaos, even if USC--the greatest team that we will ever see until 2008--runs the table. Nonetheless, I can tell you, with absolute certainty, which team is no longer part of the title picture.
Jerry Glanville and Jack Pardee's Houston Oilers... err... Rich Rodriguez's West Virginia Mountaineers. Look, before suitably blasting WVA for emulating Virginia Tech post-#7, a few words on my pick. It had all the possibility of becoming true, had Pat White not dinged up his knee and had alleged All-America Steve Slaton had better hands. Aside from a pick-six to open the proceedings and a Louisville-esque busted coverage on a long TD pass, the incompetent execution at the USF 2 summed up the night rather well. That botched snap likely cost the Mountaineers a TD and only a 7-14 deficit.
On the highlights, it sort of looked like Greg Montgomery muffing a snap on a field goal in a playoff game long ago... Last year, a lack of discipline cost West Virginia on the road at Louisville followed by a lack of focus against these very same Bulls when a BCS berth seemed theirs for the taking (because, you know, beating an SEC champ in the Sugar Bowl--barely--is worth ten years of goodwill, not quite ND-like, but almost). White and Slaton starred as freshmen on a Top 5 finisher in 2005... now it's 2007, and we're still waiting for something resembling an encore.
Coach Rodriguez has a good program, yet the aforementioned stars are not the usual crop received by Morgantown: they've cashed in to some degree, but more has been expected these last two years. If Slaton stays, they'll have one more chance, if not, well, it may not get this good for awhile.
Upon reflection of last night's WVA debacle, my thoughts wandered back to one of the most talented teams in NFL history--the late 1980s/early 1990s Houston Oilers. A cool bunch with charismatic players and speed to burn, so great... they never played in an AFC Championship Game. We need not remind you their entire "reign" witnessed the NFC hold the Lombardi Trophy every time. To borrow a line from the legendary SNL performer, it was always something, from gagging a thirty-two point lead in Buffalo to playing the foil for yet another Joe Montana moment, as their #2 seed and visions of finally reaching the Super Bowl, dissipated in the cavernous Astrodome artificial air. Soon, the brass chose a "promising" young QB over a future Hall of Famer, and the ride ended, literally, with the relocation to Tennessee.
Now, Rich Rodriguez is a better coach than either Houston gent, yet the results, troublingly, seem the same: they always find the banana peel. Remarkably, this time it wasn't the defense, but injuries and an ineffective offense. Oh, like a certain Run-and-Shoot crew from days gone by, they can return to piling up the points on questionable competition, and perhaps even win in New Jersey later this year. We may even say it goes back to old ruler of Morgantown, and the 1988 and 1993 undefeated Mountaineer squads pummelled in two major bowl games--or the potential squandered in the form of a seventeen point opening loss to the (albeit #1) Buckeyes in 1998. Or allowing a certain Virginia Tech freshman quarterback to drive his team to a game-winning field goal with seconds to play on the Blue Ridge in 1999.
The Bulls are a nice story and have a leg up in the conference race, yet they're not a serious championship contender (yet), West Virginia was supposed to be one, even as their sole accomplishment remains holding off one of the worst SEC champions (Georgia, 2005) in many seasons.
Yet, perhaps it is best for WVA to look on the bright side: at least they didn't blow a double-digit lead against a mid-level opponent in a conference title game mere minutes from a once-fathomable destination: the Fiesta Bowl and the chance to play for all the marbles. That 1998 Kansas State edition, piloted by the Heisman runner-up, a terrific defense, and superb special teams, owns the dubious distinction of losing the most.
At the outset, congratulations to the supremely opportunistic Bulls, without question, they will warrant Top 10 status in the next round of polls. Florida kids, it goes without saying, have no peer for speed and quickness--and there are a whole lot of youngsters in the Sunshine State that can play football. Are they a national title contender? Well, we could say that a hypothetical OSU/WIS v. RUT/USF poll battle would prove quite interesting, especially if also matched against a one-loss USC team for the right to play the SEC champion (the winner of the nation's best conference is always guaranteed a title shot, didn't you know that?). In order...
1) A one-loss USC team
2) An undefeated Rutgers or South Florida team
3) An undefeated Wisconsin or Ohio State team
4) An undefeated Oklahoma team, unless Texas wins out
Of course, an LSU/FLA split would create quite a bit of chaos, even if USC--the greatest team that we will ever see until 2008--runs the table. Nonetheless, I can tell you, with absolute certainty, which team is no longer part of the title picture.
Jerry Glanville and Jack Pardee's Houston Oilers... err... Rich Rodriguez's West Virginia Mountaineers. Look, before suitably blasting WVA for emulating Virginia Tech post-#7, a few words on my pick. It had all the possibility of becoming true, had Pat White not dinged up his knee and had alleged All-America Steve Slaton had better hands. Aside from a pick-six to open the proceedings and a Louisville-esque busted coverage on a long TD pass, the incompetent execution at the USF 2 summed up the night rather well. That botched snap likely cost the Mountaineers a TD and only a 7-14 deficit.
On the highlights, it sort of looked like Greg Montgomery muffing a snap on a field goal in a playoff game long ago... Last year, a lack of discipline cost West Virginia on the road at Louisville followed by a lack of focus against these very same Bulls when a BCS berth seemed theirs for the taking (because, you know, beating an SEC champ in the Sugar Bowl--barely--is worth ten years of goodwill, not quite ND-like, but almost). White and Slaton starred as freshmen on a Top 5 finisher in 2005... now it's 2007, and we're still waiting for something resembling an encore.
Coach Rodriguez has a good program, yet the aforementioned stars are not the usual crop received by Morgantown: they've cashed in to some degree, but more has been expected these last two years. If Slaton stays, they'll have one more chance, if not, well, it may not get this good for awhile.
Upon reflection of last night's WVA debacle, my thoughts wandered back to one of the most talented teams in NFL history--the late 1980s/early 1990s Houston Oilers. A cool bunch with charismatic players and speed to burn, so great... they never played in an AFC Championship Game. We need not remind you their entire "reign" witnessed the NFC hold the Lombardi Trophy every time. To borrow a line from the legendary SNL performer, it was always something, from gagging a thirty-two point lead in Buffalo to playing the foil for yet another Joe Montana moment, as their #2 seed and visions of finally reaching the Super Bowl, dissipated in the cavernous Astrodome artificial air. Soon, the brass chose a "promising" young QB over a future Hall of Famer, and the ride ended, literally, with the relocation to Tennessee.
Now, Rich Rodriguez is a better coach than either Houston gent, yet the results, troublingly, seem the same: they always find the banana peel. Remarkably, this time it wasn't the defense, but injuries and an ineffective offense. Oh, like a certain Run-and-Shoot crew from days gone by, they can return to piling up the points on questionable competition, and perhaps even win in New Jersey later this year. We may even say it goes back to old ruler of Morgantown, and the 1988 and 1993 undefeated Mountaineer squads pummelled in two major bowl games--or the potential squandered in the form of a seventeen point opening loss to the (albeit #1) Buckeyes in 1998. Or allowing a certain Virginia Tech freshman quarterback to drive his team to a game-winning field goal with seconds to play on the Blue Ridge in 1999.
The Bulls are a nice story and have a leg up in the conference race, yet they're not a serious championship contender (yet), West Virginia was supposed to be one, even as their sole accomplishment remains holding off one of the worst SEC champions (Georgia, 2005) in many seasons.
Yet, perhaps it is best for WVA to look on the bright side: at least they didn't blow a double-digit lead against a mid-level opponent in a conference title game mere minutes from a once-fathomable destination: the Fiesta Bowl and the chance to play for all the marbles. That 1998 Kansas State edition, piloted by the Heisman runner-up, a terrific defense, and superb special teams, owns the dubious distinction of losing the most.
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