1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. California (+2)
4. South Florida (+13)
5. Ohio State (+3)
6. KENTUCKY!!! (+5)
7. Wisconsin (+7)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. South Carolina (+6)
10. Georgia (+3)
11. Oregon (+5)
12. West Virginia (-6)
13. Oklahoma (-10)
14. Florida (-10)
15. Florida State (NR)
16. Purdue (+7)
17. Virginia Tech (+1)
18. Missouri (+1)
19. Arizona State (NR)
20. Cincinnati (NR)
21. Michigan (-1)
22. Michigan State (+3)
23. Kansas State (NR)
24. Auburn (NR)
25. Rutgers (-18!)
Dismissed: #9 Texas, #12 Clemson, #21 Penn State, and #22 Alabama
National Title Pretenders: #3 Oklahoma, #4 Florida, and #6 West Virginia
Legit: #3 California and #5 South Florida
Wow: NR Kansas State and NR Auburn
Honorable Mention: Colorado
Further comment...
Well, I've never seen a September Saturday quite like yesterday. The BCS title game picture took on a much sharper focus in the form of FIVE Top 10 teams falling to defeat, incredibly, two of them on home soil. While it is true the Florida Gators retain a slim chance of reentering the Not Sugar scenarios with a win over LSU next week, for the rest, it is over.
Oklahoma's conference had let it down, until the Sooners ensured that they would have no case, legitimate or otherwise, to make in mid-December.
Texas embarrassed itself, period, not as humiliating as Notre Dame's twenty-six point defeat to Michigan in South Bend last autumn, but close.
Presented with a golden opportunity, Rutgers could not get past a less-than-imposing ACC team--at home in New Jersey.
The vanishing acts of OU and FLA don't leave me much choice: all praise to USC for winning another night road game. I now believe the drop-off from #2 to #3 and beyond the largest in many a year. A one-loss Trojan campaign, clipped either in Eugene or Berkeley (unless the Bears go undefeated), deserves a BCS title game berth, excepting a decisive loss.
A reasonable Top 10 now includes California, South Florida, Ohio State, Boston College, and Kentucky, and some of those teams are needed to fill out the Top 5.
DeSean Jackson took a giant step towards competing for the Heisman Trophy, whereas Tim Tebow went in completely the opposite direction. Sam Bradford? Steve Slaton? Well, perhaps the less said the better.
LSU staggered to a 10-9 lead into halftime as a forty-point favorite against Tulane, yet somehow emerged as the most polished and focused team of the afternoon. The Gators, backed into a corner, arrive in Baton Rouge next week.
A few last points about the remarkable nature of this poll:
1) Florida State, ridiculed in an opening loss to Clemson, now stands ONE spot behind archrival Florida.
2) Oregon and Michigan State each received a higher ranking based on... close losses, and the former lost AT HOME!!
3) #7 Rutgers lost at home to an unranked team by double digits, and, owing to the rash of upsets, remained, barely, in the Top 25.
4) #5 Ohio State travels to West Lafayette to play #16 Purdue next Saturday... in the biggest game of the day involving two undefeated teams.
5) The University of Kentucky football program is one win away from Top 4 status... and perhaps two or three wins away from, well, we dare not say.
6) To borrow a line from Gregg Easterbrook, I don't mean to alarm you, but Oklahoma State and Texas A&M will play next weekend... for first place in the Big 12 South.
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Sunday, September 16, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of September 16
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. Florida (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. West Virginia (+1)
6. California (+6)
7. Penn State (+3)
8. Rutgers (+3)
9. Texas (-5)
10. Wisconsin (-2)
11. South Carolina (+2)
12. Ohio State (+6)
13. Alabama (+9)
14. Boston College (NR)
15. Georgia (+2)
16. Clemson (+7)
17. KENTUCKY! (NR)
18. Oregon (+2)
19. Louisville (-11)
20. Texas A&M (+4)
21. Virginia Tech (NR)
22. Nebraska (-7)
23. Purdue (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Arkansas (-6)
Banished: #7 (ugh) UCLA, #14 (huh?) Georgia Tech, #16 (yeah, I bit) Washington, #19 (you know what you have to do) South Florida, #25 (hey, the 1995 team got roasted at the Swamp too!) Tennessee
Took We a Tumble: #9 Louisville (#20 now), #15 Nebraska (#23 now), #19 Arkansas (#25 now)
Shaky, shaky: #5 Texas (now #9), #8 Wisconsin (now #10)
Validation: #2 USC (NC), #18 Ohio State! (+6)
Starting to Believe: Rutgers, California, South Carolina
I guessed 2006, I was too kind: Notre Dame, reprising their 2003 effort at UM
Well, I haven't felt so good about being so wrong in some time! Starting at the top, the LSU Destroyers continued on their rampage to the national championship game--that's now seven points allowed in three games...
USC nicely stepped up and won the first of five tough roadies this season, although, admittedly, the bout at Seattle no longer looks as challenging. Careful, however, because Oregon and California, both of which Pete Carroll's Dynasty* faces away from the Coliseum, can put up the points too.
Urban Meyer, top coach in America? Only one to defeat Ohio State in twenty-three games, no losses to UF's hard triangle, just asking... Tennessee's "defense" has embarrassed their late-1990s, sans NEB games, units. Where have you gone, Al Wilson, Raynoch Thompson, and D'wayne Goodrich, Rocky Top turns its lonely eyes to you...
Wisconsin, even though I'm sure they'll top OSU and possibly win the Big 10, continues to unimpress, P. J. Hill not withstanding. At the moment, Penn State is the best team in the Big 10, though neither team has gone on the road to beat a worthy adversary... great job, Bucks!
Nick Saban cannot win a national championship in his FIRST year, can he? Too much youth, too many flaws, yet one SEC West foe conquered, two more to go, and one of them just lost to Mississippi State, which admittedly makes South Florida's win on the Plains look more pedestrian than last week.
Oh yes, there was a little quarrel at the Commonwealth last evening... YES!!!!!!!!!!!! Finally, against an opponent that had laughed and snorted at UK for years, Louisville gets its comeuppance, albeit in yet another game that has me seeing 50s and 60s for LSU and Florida. C'mon D, can you hold either to under 30??? Yes, I'll say it, the best win of Rich Brooks's career (you mean better than the NFL days?). Tennessee looks more and more beatable, whilst outscoring Georgia now seems plausible, even if between the hedges.
UK!!!!!!!!!!! UK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WELCOME TO THE AP POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bonus BCS Preview:
OCT 6: Gators at the Tigers, D-Day in the SEC.
2. Southern California (NC)
3. Florida (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. West Virginia (+1)
6. California (+6)
7. Penn State (+3)
8. Rutgers (+3)
9. Texas (-5)
10. Wisconsin (-2)
11. South Carolina (+2)
12. Ohio State (+6)
13. Alabama (+9)
14. Boston College (NR)
15. Georgia (+2)
16. Clemson (+7)
17. KENTUCKY! (NR)
18. Oregon (+2)
19. Louisville (-11)
20. Texas A&M (+4)
21. Virginia Tech (NR)
22. Nebraska (-7)
23. Purdue (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Arkansas (-6)
Banished: #7 (ugh) UCLA, #14 (huh?) Georgia Tech, #16 (yeah, I bit) Washington, #19 (you know what you have to do) South Florida, #25 (hey, the 1995 team got roasted at the Swamp too!) Tennessee
Took We a Tumble: #9 Louisville (#20 now), #15 Nebraska (#23 now), #19 Arkansas (#25 now)
Shaky, shaky: #5 Texas (now #9), #8 Wisconsin (now #10)
Validation: #2 USC (NC), #18 Ohio State! (+6)
Starting to Believe: Rutgers, California, South Carolina
I guessed 2006, I was too kind: Notre Dame, reprising their 2003 effort at UM
Well, I haven't felt so good about being so wrong in some time! Starting at the top, the LSU Destroyers continued on their rampage to the national championship game--that's now seven points allowed in three games...
USC nicely stepped up and won the first of five tough roadies this season, although, admittedly, the bout at Seattle no longer looks as challenging. Careful, however, because Oregon and California, both of which Pete Carroll's Dynasty* faces away from the Coliseum, can put up the points too.
Urban Meyer, top coach in America? Only one to defeat Ohio State in twenty-three games, no losses to UF's hard triangle, just asking... Tennessee's "defense" has embarrassed their late-1990s, sans NEB games, units. Where have you gone, Al Wilson, Raynoch Thompson, and D'wayne Goodrich, Rocky Top turns its lonely eyes to you...
Wisconsin, even though I'm sure they'll top OSU and possibly win the Big 10, continues to unimpress, P. J. Hill not withstanding. At the moment, Penn State is the best team in the Big 10, though neither team has gone on the road to beat a worthy adversary... great job, Bucks!
Nick Saban cannot win a national championship in his FIRST year, can he? Too much youth, too many flaws, yet one SEC West foe conquered, two more to go, and one of them just lost to Mississippi State, which admittedly makes South Florida's win on the Plains look more pedestrian than last week.
Oh yes, there was a little quarrel at the Commonwealth last evening... YES!!!!!!!!!!!! Finally, against an opponent that had laughed and snorted at UK for years, Louisville gets its comeuppance, albeit in yet another game that has me seeing 50s and 60s for LSU and Florida. C'mon D, can you hold either to under 30??? Yes, I'll say it, the best win of Rich Brooks's career (you mean better than the NFL days?). Tennessee looks more and more beatable, whilst outscoring Georgia now seems plausible, even if between the hedges.
UK!!!!!!!!!!! UK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WELCOME TO THE AP POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bonus BCS Preview:
OCT 6: Gators at the Tigers, D-Day in the SEC.
Sunday, September 9, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of September 9
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (+1)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Florida (-2)
5. Texas (+2)
6. West Virginia (-1)
7. UCLA (+2)
8. Wisconsin (-4)
9. Louisville (+1)
10. Penn State (+2)
11. Rutgers (+3)
12. California (+3)
13. South Carolina (+7)
14. Georgia Tech (NR)
15. Nebraska (-2)
16. Washington (NR)
17. Georgia (-9)
18. Ohio State (-2)
19. Arkansas (+3)
20. Oregon (NR)
21. South Florida (NR)
22. Alabama (+2)
23. Clemson (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Tennessee (NR)
Frauds and Impostors: #17 Boise State, #18 Virginia Tech (told ya so), #19 Oregon State (my bad), #21 Miami, and #23 Hawaii
Sorry, had to do it: #6 Appalachian State and #25 TCU
Banished For a Fortnight: Auburn and, well, that Team Up North
New Arrivals: Georgia Tech, Washington, Oregon, South Florida, and Clemson
First off, I should probably refrain from picking the score of Michigan's game for the rest of the season, holy mother of God. I guess Lou Holtz's ESPN.com stump speech did little to stop Dennis Dixon. For the second straight week, a stunning score: 7-39. Mike Hart, despite limps, had another fine day, but Michigan got smoked by the spread yet again, never fear, it is possible that a Big 10 ti... oh, I'll just shut my mouth.
Hey, pollsters, any questions? I thought not. Yes, I called it back in December, but oh my goodness, 598 total yards on the Hokies, this crew is like a pack of hounds out for Vick's blood. Better saddle up, Gators.
Speaking of Florida, we're already starting to see some holes in that D, and it's going to catch up with them, so, alas, I have to put USC at #2. What a conformist. Oklahoma, though, posted the second-most impressive victory of the day, slicing Miami's proud defense for fitty-one in (twenty year) payback for the bruisings of the 1980s. I had them winning it, but not by that much. Number three, pending USC's presumed drive-by of Nebraska... which got caught looking ahead and barely escaped at the Grove. Keller was OK, but not nearly as poised as Colt McCoy, as Texas finally began the 2007 season with a second half smoking of a good (possibly BCS) TCU team.
Credit the OBC for, once again, destroying another promising Bulldog season. Still, I couldn't drop Richt's boys out completely, their defense allowed only one touch, and they're still better than Kentucky (pending the Louisville game). The 'Cocks, well thought of in this blog's preview, now have a serious chance to actually win the SEC East... and get drop-kicked by the Bayou Bengals in Atlanta. Meanwhile, all the Yellow Jackets had to do was cast aside Reggie Ball, and continue the defensive pressure. I'm starting to buy an ACC title.
Cal and Bucky slid past game opponents on the road, and both therefore had a better day than the offensively disinclined Ohio State Buckeyes, a prime candidate to get shoved out of the Top 25 next week, but a D that allows zero points and forces fourteen punts is still a Big 10 title contender, even if #10, #7, #11, and #25 are not walking through that door anymore.
In just a few weeks, might we be looking at #1 LSU v. #4 Florida, and #3 Oklahoma v. #5 Texas. Wow, two national championship eliminators, with the caveat that the Gators, if not utterly humiliated, would have a shot via a rematch in the SEC Championship Game, but, well, they need Jarvis Moss and Reggie F______ Nelson to have any real chance of keeping LSU from rolling to N'Orleans and the Not Sugar.
If LSU is not #1 in your poll, you're likely far too into USC. Two BCS conference teams, two games of 40+, two games of >10. Yes, a long road to hoe, but the beginnings of one of those special teams, and perhaps suitable competition for the Big Red Machine of 1995.
2. Southern California (+1)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Florida (-2)
5. Texas (+2)
6. West Virginia (-1)
7. UCLA (+2)
8. Wisconsin (-4)
9. Louisville (+1)
10. Penn State (+2)
11. Rutgers (+3)
12. California (+3)
13. South Carolina (+7)
14. Georgia Tech (NR)
15. Nebraska (-2)
16. Washington (NR)
17. Georgia (-9)
18. Ohio State (-2)
19. Arkansas (+3)
20. Oregon (NR)
21. South Florida (NR)
22. Alabama (+2)
23. Clemson (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Tennessee (NR)
Frauds and Impostors: #17 Boise State, #18 Virginia Tech (told ya so), #19 Oregon State (my bad), #21 Miami, and #23 Hawaii
Sorry, had to do it: #6 Appalachian State and #25 TCU
Banished For a Fortnight: Auburn and, well, that Team Up North
New Arrivals: Georgia Tech, Washington, Oregon, South Florida, and Clemson
First off, I should probably refrain from picking the score of Michigan's game for the rest of the season, holy mother of God. I guess Lou Holtz's ESPN.com stump speech did little to stop Dennis Dixon. For the second straight week, a stunning score: 7-39. Mike Hart, despite limps, had another fine day, but Michigan got smoked by the spread yet again, never fear, it is possible that a Big 10 ti... oh, I'll just shut my mouth.
Hey, pollsters, any questions? I thought not. Yes, I called it back in December, but oh my goodness, 598 total yards on the Hokies, this crew is like a pack of hounds out for Vick's blood. Better saddle up, Gators.
Speaking of Florida, we're already starting to see some holes in that D, and it's going to catch up with them, so, alas, I have to put USC at #2. What a conformist. Oklahoma, though, posted the second-most impressive victory of the day, slicing Miami's proud defense for fitty-one in (twenty year) payback for the bruisings of the 1980s. I had them winning it, but not by that much. Number three, pending USC's presumed drive-by of Nebraska... which got caught looking ahead and barely escaped at the Grove. Keller was OK, but not nearly as poised as Colt McCoy, as Texas finally began the 2007 season with a second half smoking of a good (possibly BCS) TCU team.
Credit the OBC for, once again, destroying another promising Bulldog season. Still, I couldn't drop Richt's boys out completely, their defense allowed only one touch, and they're still better than Kentucky (pending the Louisville game). The 'Cocks, well thought of in this blog's preview, now have a serious chance to actually win the SEC East... and get drop-kicked by the Bayou Bengals in Atlanta. Meanwhile, all the Yellow Jackets had to do was cast aside Reggie Ball, and continue the defensive pressure. I'm starting to buy an ACC title.
Cal and Bucky slid past game opponents on the road, and both therefore had a better day than the offensively disinclined Ohio State Buckeyes, a prime candidate to get shoved out of the Top 25 next week, but a D that allows zero points and forces fourteen punts is still a Big 10 title contender, even if #10, #7, #11, and #25 are not walking through that door anymore.
In just a few weeks, might we be looking at #1 LSU v. #4 Florida, and #3 Oklahoma v. #5 Texas. Wow, two national championship eliminators, with the caveat that the Gators, if not utterly humiliated, would have a shot via a rematch in the SEC Championship Game, but, well, they need Jarvis Moss and Reggie F______ Nelson to have any real chance of keeping LSU from rolling to N'Orleans and the Not Sugar.
If LSU is not #1 in your poll, you're likely far too into USC. Two BCS conference teams, two games of 40+, two games of >10. Yes, a long road to hoe, but the beginnings of one of those special teams, and perhaps suitable competition for the Big Red Machine of 1995.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of September 2
Note: I should have this completed by Sundays in the future.
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Florida (+2)
3. Southern California (+2)
4. Wisconsin (+2)
5. West Virginia (+2)
6. Appalachian State (NR)
7. Texas (-4)
8. Georgia (+1)
9. UCLA (+1)
10. Louisville (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+2)
12. Penn State (+3)
13. Nebraska (-2)
14. Rutgers (NC)
15. California (+6)
16. Ohio State (+2)
17. Boise State (+2)
18. Virginia Tech (-1)
19. Oregon State (+4)
20. South Carolina (NC)
21. Miami (+4)
22. Arkansas (+2)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Alabama (NR)
25. TCU (NR)
Dropped out: #2 Michigan, #8 Florida State, #16 Tennessee, and #22 Auburn
Watch out: Georgia Tech, Washington, Texas A&M, Oregon, and Clemson
Risers: Appalachian State, California, Oregon State, and Miami
Fallers: Texas, plus losing teams
Well, eight of my top ten survived opening week, what is that an 80% proficiency rating? Ugh. True, I could've been more charitable to the Volunteers, but allowing forty-five points in any setting is not grounds for a moral victory. We've covered Michigan's woes earlier, yet Florida State, deigning to show observers the 'Noles were "back," did not show up ready in Death Valley. Clemson may prove very good, but no defense should hold FSU to ONE first down and fewer than seventy yards in a half, save for Florida 2006 or LSU 2007. Atrocious. Jimbo Fisher left the sweets of Baton Rouge for this?!? Auburn's lackluster win over K-State simply did not impress, yet they're still a contender in the SEC West.
The more I see of Colt Brennan, yes, mere highlights, the more I am persuaded Pro Bowls are in his future. Can he win the Heisman though? John David Booty and the Trojans yawned through Idaho, but their big games are fast approaching. Some would quibble with App-y State ranked in the Top 10, yet I don't believe anyone else will win in Michigan Stadium this year. Texas never felt in danger of losing to Arkansas State, yet when your comparables ring up the cash register, well, 21-13 on your home field drops you a few spots, nothing a third straight conquering of OU won't cure though.
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Florida (+2)
3. Southern California (+2)
4. Wisconsin (+2)
5. West Virginia (+2)
6. Appalachian State (NR)
7. Texas (-4)
8. Georgia (+1)
9. UCLA (+1)
10. Louisville (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+2)
12. Penn State (+3)
13. Nebraska (-2)
14. Rutgers (NC)
15. California (+6)
16. Ohio State (+2)
17. Boise State (+2)
18. Virginia Tech (-1)
19. Oregon State (+4)
20. South Carolina (NC)
21. Miami (+4)
22. Arkansas (+2)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Alabama (NR)
25. TCU (NR)
Dropped out: #2 Michigan, #8 Florida State, #16 Tennessee, and #22 Auburn
Watch out: Georgia Tech, Washington, Texas A&M, Oregon, and Clemson
Risers: Appalachian State, California, Oregon State, and Miami
Fallers: Texas, plus losing teams
Well, eight of my top ten survived opening week, what is that an 80% proficiency rating? Ugh. True, I could've been more charitable to the Volunteers, but allowing forty-five points in any setting is not grounds for a moral victory. We've covered Michigan's woes earlier, yet Florida State, deigning to show observers the 'Noles were "back," did not show up ready in Death Valley. Clemson may prove very good, but no defense should hold FSU to ONE first down and fewer than seventy yards in a half, save for Florida 2006 or LSU 2007. Atrocious. Jimbo Fisher left the sweets of Baton Rouge for this?!? Auburn's lackluster win over K-State simply did not impress, yet they're still a contender in the SEC West.
The more I see of Colt Brennan, yes, mere highlights, the more I am persuaded Pro Bowls are in his future. Can he win the Heisman though? John David Booty and the Trojans yawned through Idaho, but their big games are fast approaching. Some would quibble with App-y State ranked in the Top 10, yet I don't believe anyone else will win in Michigan Stadium this year. Texas never felt in danger of losing to Arkansas State, yet when your comparables ring up the cash register, well, 21-13 on your home field drops you a few spots, nothing a third straight conquering of OU won't cure though.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Preseason Poll (Week of 19 AUG)
1. Louisiana State
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Southern California
6. Wisconsin
7. West Virginia
8. Florida State
9. Georgia
10. UCLA
11. Nebraska
12. Louisville
13. Oklahoma
14. Rutgers
15. Penn State
16. Tennessee
17. Virginia Tech
18. Ohio State
19. Boise State
20. South Carolina
21. California
22. Auburn
23. Oregon State
24. Arkansas
25. Miami (FL)
Comments:
The Tigers have a tailor-made schedule to reach the championship game (gotta beat FLA, possibly twice) and then could play before their partisans at the Superdome. Michigan can also punch its ticket with a win against Bucky, a team they've handled since the mid-1990s. Defending national champ Florida is perhaps given a generous rating, but their offense should have more explosiveness and Urban Meyer can find a way around the loss of nine defensive starters (for awhile and to a point). Rounding out the Top 5, Texas and USC. Colt McCoy is probably the most important player in the Big 12 (sorry, Sam Keller), if he remains healthy, the 'Horns should down the Sooners for the third straight year. The Trojans, as discussed previously, are hampered by a monster schedule, even if Notre Dame and Oregon don't look terribly fearsome at the moment.
With the exception of UCLA, the next group of teams have a decent chance to capture one of the two slots for N'Orleans. Think Wisconsin's journey to Columbus poses a problem? Think again. Ohio State has not defeated the Badgers at home since 1996 (a 14-10 nailbiter, losses in 1999, 2001, and 2004), we'll see if that was just Alvarez magic. The Mountaineers are a perpetual tease, still, I look for them to crunch Louisville in Morgantown, but even going unbeaten does not a BCS title game guarantee. Florida State, perhaps, is poised to return to at least 1989-1991 form, and Georgia is a sleeper pick to win the SEC for the third time in six campaigns.
Nos. 11-15 intrigue, but I see too many holes for each though. Nebraska may clip USC, but not Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. Louisville has a Heisman candidate at quarterback, but a loss to West Virginia seems likely. Penn State and Oklahoma are both beset with quarterback issues, and Rutgers will have a difficult time reaching the heights of 2006, nonetheless they will hover in the Top 15.
Ohio State, however, will not. Road night games at Seattle and State College (OSU: 2-4 at Beaver Stadium since 1994, twice gagging double-digit leads) are cause for severe concern, plus there's a Tressel shortcoming against Wisconsin (1-4) and the prospect of the most motivated Michigan team to take the field in four years. Chris Perry and Braylon Edwards had their way in a convincing 35-21 victory of then-#2 OSU in 2003, look for Mike Hart and Mario Mannigham (irrespective of what this guy says, the best WR in the Big 10) to perform similarly. Virginia Tech, as Pat Forde said on the radio the other day, always seems to drop a winnable game at home, plus LSU is on the schedule this year.
South Carolina could prove to "the Leap," as ESPN's Bill Simmons would put it, as Spurrier's guys nearly got Florida in Gainesville last season. This is year three of the project, and the deeper Gamecocks should return to the Top 20 nationally. I am not a buyer in Cal, something about getting waxed in Knoxville, blowing a conference game to Arizona(!), and failing to play an effective fourth quarter against USC... just rubs me the wrong way. Yes, the Tennessee game goes West this year, but M-Lynch will not participate. Ditto Auburn, as I lost a great deal of respect for the team that got caught looking ahead to Florida (whom they beat) and allowed an essentially-QB-less Razorback team to run them into the ground. Gone went BCS title dreams. Darren McFadden alone puts Arkansas in the Top 25, provided they don't sleep on Kentucky (shhhh).
Seven SEC schools make the Twenty-five, but I think LSU's defense, even without All America Landry (now in D. C.) will suffocate enough offenses to allow their new starting quarterback, to say, post more than three points against Auburn and ten against Florida. Not that such a performance would necessarily prevent Matt Flynn from going #1 in the NFL Draft, ahem. We should say this, however: LSU is in a dangerous position, they cannot lose because all of their key games are in Baton Rouge. Even Michigan with its favorable schedule, travels to Camp Randall. Florida could lose to LSU and get them in a rematch on a neutral field. Wisconsin conceivably could lose to Ohio State yet beat Michigan, though, as we've seen, a one-loss Big 10 team has very little chance at playing for a title (Exhibit A: 2006 Michigan). USC can most afford a loss, unfortunately they are the most likely Top 5 team to lose three times.
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Southern California
6. Wisconsin
7. West Virginia
8. Florida State
9. Georgia
10. UCLA
11. Nebraska
12. Louisville
13. Oklahoma
14. Rutgers
15. Penn State
16. Tennessee
17. Virginia Tech
18. Ohio State
19. Boise State
20. South Carolina
21. California
22. Auburn
23. Oregon State
24. Arkansas
25. Miami (FL)
Comments:
The Tigers have a tailor-made schedule to reach the championship game (gotta beat FLA, possibly twice) and then could play before their partisans at the Superdome. Michigan can also punch its ticket with a win against Bucky, a team they've handled since the mid-1990s. Defending national champ Florida is perhaps given a generous rating, but their offense should have more explosiveness and Urban Meyer can find a way around the loss of nine defensive starters (for awhile and to a point). Rounding out the Top 5, Texas and USC. Colt McCoy is probably the most important player in the Big 12 (sorry, Sam Keller), if he remains healthy, the 'Horns should down the Sooners for the third straight year. The Trojans, as discussed previously, are hampered by a monster schedule, even if Notre Dame and Oregon don't look terribly fearsome at the moment.
With the exception of UCLA, the next group of teams have a decent chance to capture one of the two slots for N'Orleans. Think Wisconsin's journey to Columbus poses a problem? Think again. Ohio State has not defeated the Badgers at home since 1996 (a 14-10 nailbiter, losses in 1999, 2001, and 2004), we'll see if that was just Alvarez magic. The Mountaineers are a perpetual tease, still, I look for them to crunch Louisville in Morgantown, but even going unbeaten does not a BCS title game guarantee. Florida State, perhaps, is poised to return to at least 1989-1991 form, and Georgia is a sleeper pick to win the SEC for the third time in six campaigns.
Nos. 11-15 intrigue, but I see too many holes for each though. Nebraska may clip USC, but not Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. Louisville has a Heisman candidate at quarterback, but a loss to West Virginia seems likely. Penn State and Oklahoma are both beset with quarterback issues, and Rutgers will have a difficult time reaching the heights of 2006, nonetheless they will hover in the Top 15.
Ohio State, however, will not. Road night games at Seattle and State College (OSU: 2-4 at Beaver Stadium since 1994, twice gagging double-digit leads) are cause for severe concern, plus there's a Tressel shortcoming against Wisconsin (1-4) and the prospect of the most motivated Michigan team to take the field in four years. Chris Perry and Braylon Edwards had their way in a convincing 35-21 victory of then-#2 OSU in 2003, look for Mike Hart and Mario Mannigham (irrespective of what this guy says, the best WR in the Big 10) to perform similarly. Virginia Tech, as Pat Forde said on the radio the other day, always seems to drop a winnable game at home, plus LSU is on the schedule this year.
South Carolina could prove to "the Leap," as ESPN's Bill Simmons would put it, as Spurrier's guys nearly got Florida in Gainesville last season. This is year three of the project, and the deeper Gamecocks should return to the Top 20 nationally. I am not a buyer in Cal, something about getting waxed in Knoxville, blowing a conference game to Arizona(!), and failing to play an effective fourth quarter against USC... just rubs me the wrong way. Yes, the Tennessee game goes West this year, but M-Lynch will not participate. Ditto Auburn, as I lost a great deal of respect for the team that got caught looking ahead to Florida (whom they beat) and allowed an essentially-QB-less Razorback team to run them into the ground. Gone went BCS title dreams. Darren McFadden alone puts Arkansas in the Top 25, provided they don't sleep on Kentucky (shhhh).
Seven SEC schools make the Twenty-five, but I think LSU's defense, even without All America Landry (now in D. C.) will suffocate enough offenses to allow their new starting quarterback, to say, post more than three points against Auburn and ten against Florida. Not that such a performance would necessarily prevent Matt Flynn from going #1 in the NFL Draft, ahem. We should say this, however: LSU is in a dangerous position, they cannot lose because all of their key games are in Baton Rouge. Even Michigan with its favorable schedule, travels to Camp Randall. Florida could lose to LSU and get them in a rematch on a neutral field. Wisconsin conceivably could lose to Ohio State yet beat Michigan, though, as we've seen, a one-loss Big 10 team has very little chance at playing for a title (Exhibit A: 2006 Michigan). USC can most afford a loss, unfortunately they are the most likely Top 5 team to lose three times.
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