And Your 2008 National Champs Are...

Last year, on a now-defunct blog, I boldly predicted, before their dismantling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, the 2007 national champion: LSU. I picked the Bayou Bengals irrespective of projected first-round draft choice losses to include their star quarterback due to a perceived friendly schedule buttressed by a virtual home-game in the BCS Championship.

Looking pretty good right about now. Yes, it took some resistance to the massive, heavily-overblown hype emanating from Los Angeles, but I stuck to my guns, and even predicted a two-loss season for the USC Trojans. Also, correct. Obviously, I didn't foresee two losses for the Tigers, particularly the last one, at home, to Arkansas, but this season proved the one for such a resume. Now, for all my USC criticism, I actually like them quite a bit next season, provided they beat the Buckeyes in a huge September game at the Coliseum.

All of the rough roadies (Eugene, Tempe) are home games and if Notre Dame has improved at all, that one is also in Los Angeles. Arizona State might improve some more, Oregon is headed for a fall, NO ONE should trust California, Washington will get better, Oregon State never starts out quickly enough, and it's very hard to see another 8-1 team in the Pac-10. Stanford? Jim Harbaugh's team will likely make strides too, but if they finish 6-3 in conference play, well, he should win Coach of the Year honors.

Mark Sanchez, now a little older (presumably, he stays heathly) emerges as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate to battle Ohio State's Chris Wells and of course the defending champion from Gainesville, plus the prodigious depth and newfound experience of their wide receivers. I would expect the defense, whilst losing some key players, to continue to have little trouble in conference play and likely with Todd Boeckman (unless the latter comes up big in the Not Sugar).

Their Road to the Not Orange (along with RT2020 spread):

@ Virginia (-13)
v. Ohio State (-9)
@ Oregon State (-5)
v. Oregon (-18)
v. Arizona State (-14)
@ Washington State (-20)
@ Arizona (-14)
v. Washington (-4)
v. California (-21)
@ Stanford (-20)
v. Notre Dame (-24)
@ UCLA (-13)

A solid favorite in every matchup, pending, once again, the result of Ohio State's game against LSU. If the Buckeyes win, that game in LA is a toss up, if not slightly more than a touchdown. I actually think U-Dub, with Locker a year older, could pose the most significant threat, particularly because USC might overlook them if California is off to a nice start. Their first three tilts, however, are brutal. USC's last trip to Corvallis ended with a loss, but I can easily see the Trojans still winning comfortably. Once more, six road clashes, which we should commend, but not as unruly as 2007 (even if NEB and ND fell on their faces). After smashing Illinois, they will have a haunting memory of the Stanford game that cost them a chance to beat Ohio State... unless of course all the media outlets again go gaga over this team and project them to beat 1995 Nebraska.

Twelve-and-oh, mark it down. So, who will they play? A rematch with Ohio State is not out of the question (the Bucks host both Penn State and Michigan), if the game is close and the Big 10 fields at least one other ten-win team. I don't think so, however, as I think the other slot to the Orange is coming out of the SEC (of course).

And that team is the one with the best player and the best coach in America.

The Gator Slate:

v. Hawaii (-27)
v. Miami (-30)
@ Tennessee (-10)
v. Ole Miss (-31)
@ Arkansas (-24)
v. LSU (-13)
v. Kentucky (-30)
n. Georgia (-3)
@ Vanderbilt (-21)
v. South Carolina (-7)
v. Citadel (-45)
@ Florida State (-27)
n. Auburn (-17, projected SEC West opponent in Atlanta)

Hurrah, no Auburn! And just four road games. The early test in Knoxville should tell the tale. Tennessee, utterly trashed by #15 in 2007, will show some pride next season--but I'm not persuaded that the Vols, ten years removed from their last conference championship, are good enough to beat Florida. The Gators will have a more experienced defense, a better Percy Harvin, and perhaps (finally) a true running back to take some pressure off Tebow. Sans Colt Brennan, even a Rainbow Warrior team that clips Georgia will have no chance at the Swamp. The battle with Georgia will determine control of the SEC East and perhaps the national title race, which will hinge on whether the Gator defense has stiffened enough not to allow Georgia's sensational sophomore tailback, echoes of Walker and Hearst, to run through them again. LSU will drop, UK will plummet, good year to play Miami, but watch out for the crafty OBC late in the year. The Citadel game, alone, gives USC's schedule a big edge, and the absence of Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama leave this slate highly likely to finish with nary a blemish.

Thirteen-and-oh, and at least another NYC trip for Tim Tebow. Barring a total calamity in the Capital One, I will place Florida at #1 in the 2008 preseason poll, if this blog runs that far. It is possible even a loss to Georgia, provided the Dawgs fall twice in the SEC, wouldn't keep Florida out of their first Orange Bowl since 2001. Seven years prior to next season, in Steve Spurrier's last campaign, the Mighty Gators also opened at #1, and as mentioned previously, no Auburn to ruin things... at least not until Championship Saturday.

Bottom line: Unless the Superhero QB goes down for an extended time in at least one game, this team has 70/30 odds to run the table and perhaps 80/20 to reach Miami. FLA's offense will rate as the country's best, which means an improved D will only need to keep one team (UGA) below twenty-four. Given the coaching abilities of Meyer, his team should complete just the second undefeated SEC run since 1998 (Auburn, of course, 2004).

So, Florida #1, USC #2, what about anyone else? Or is this a reprisal of 2004-05, when the top two team stayed 1-2 all season long? We briefly referenced Georgia as perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Gators, what of their schedule?

v. Georgia Southern (-31)
v. Central Michigan (-24)
@ South Carolina (Even)
@ Arizona State!!! (-3)
v. Alabama (-8)
Bye
v. Tennessee (-14)
v. Vanderbilt (-21)
@ LSU (Even)
n. Florida (+3)
@ Kentucky (-30)
@ Auburn (Even)
Bye
v. Georgia Tech (-17)

At first glance, too difficult. How about that two-week quinella of Columbia and Tempe? Yikes. The game with SoCaro, especially since the OBC rolled into town, is always a vicious contest with few touchdowns. I suspect ASU will drop off, but I maintain winning on the road, presumably this one will take place under the lights, in Sun Devil Stadium is one the toughest tests for any team, Pac-10 or otherwise. Then come Alabama and a revenge match against the Vols. After a semi-breather against Vandy (don't get caught looking ahead!) the monster showdowns occur at the Rouge and J'ville. If that wasn't enough, Auburn lurks toward the end. Verdict: 10-2 if they're lucky, but a win over Florida would likely send them to Atlanta so long as they lost only one SEC contest. Unless the defense truly raises their level of play and they can get consistent play from signal-caller Matt Stafford, not a viable championship game threat, though probably a return trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Top 5 ranking in the final Bowl Championship Series.

Oklahoma? Yes, a real threat, and a bit of a break in not seeing Missouri in the regular season--even though the Sooners own them for all intents and purposes. I cannot find their complete schedule, but a 12-1 season is well within reach, possibly more if Sam Bradford continues his improvement.

Finally, a dark horse candidate in Morgantown, especially if Terry Bowden ends up the next coach at West Virginia. If Steve Slaton and Patrick White remain, plus Noel Devine, don't but it past the new boss. Remember Auburn '93? Then-new coach Bowden rode Patrick Nix, Stephen Davis, and Frank Sanders to an 11-0 mark punctuated by enormous wins over Florida (the SEC champ) and Alabama (bitter rival and SEC West champ) despite probation. He could do it again. The biggest problem is Auburn, the first game for the Mountaineers of 2008. The entire schedule does look inviting, with a possible danger in Boulder. A dark horse, but with the right coach, a threat nonetheless.

Super-Early Top 5:

1. Florida (14-0)
2. Southern California (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (13-1)
4. Georgia (11-3)
5. Ohio State (11-2)

BCS Championship: #1 Florida v. #2 USC = FLA 41 USC 28
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma v. Georgia (at-large) = OU 19 UGA 7
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia = VT 31 WVA 24
Fiesta Bowl: Illinois (at-large) v. Missouri (at-large) = ILL 21 MIZZ 10
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Arizona State (at-large) = OSU 24 ASU 23

Super-Early Top 5 Heisman:

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (if 13-0, will not be denied a second trophy)
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (chance if UGA beats FLA)
3. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State (needs huge game at USC)
4. Patrick White, QB, West Virginia (last chance for WVA to fulfill promise)
5. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (your 2009 winner?)

RT2020 Poll: Week of October 14

1. South Florida (+4)
2. Louisiana State (-1)
3. South Carolina (+1)
4. Oklahoma (+2)
5. Oregon (+4)
6. Ohio State (-3)
7. Boston College (NC)
8. Florida (NC)
9. California (-7)
10. Missouri (+1)
11. Arizona State (+7)
12. KENTUCKY!!!!! (+6)
13. Virginia Tech (+3)
14. Kansas (+5)
15. West Virginia (-5)
16. Auburn (+6)
17. Michigan (+3)
18. Southern California (-6)
19. Penn State (NR)
20. Tennessee (+4)
21. Maryland (DNP)
22. Georgia (+3)
23. Texas (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (NR)

Ugliness abounds: #13 (told ya so) Cincinnati, #14 (rush to leave that bandwagon) Illinois, #15 Florida State, and #21 (where'd the D go) Wisconsin

Poise? What poise?: #1 LSU, #2 California, and #12 USC

Yes, I suppose we have to rank you: #24 (ugly road win) Hawaii and #19 Penn State

Unbeaten only due to schedule: #6 Ohio State and #7 Boston College

Well, then... Our deepest thanks, Lones Seiber, wow.

Are you prepared to wake up in a college football world with Ohio State leading the BCS Standings??? What is this, 2006 all over again? No, safely, Florida has two defeats. More Top 5 shakeup on this... the second full weekend in October.

Yes, I still have LSU at #1. They lost only in triple OT, albeit to an inferior team, on the road. They still have wins over Virginia Tech and Florida. That having been said... YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY erased a double-digit halftime lead on the nation's best defense, forced OT, made an especially clutch field goal to force the third session, and... a defense that had been gashed all day on the ground held LSU to nine yards on four carries when it mattered most. The Bayou Bengals don't deserve to fall off the top spot, not with Cal pulling a Tedford--at home to an unranked but talented Oregon State squad. I am thisclose to putting South Florida numero uno (wins at Auburn and against West Virginia), but not yet... oh, all right. The Bulls also callously ran up the score on Central Florida, unaware that now all they have to do is win out to improbably reach N'Orleans for the Not-Sugar. FOX executives, swallow USF v. BC!

Why does an admitted OSU partisan drop the Bucks after a forty-five point win? How about getting outrushed at home by a MAC team? Nitpicking? What does the OSU line think Rashad Mendenhall is going to do, let alone Mike Hart? Yes, the scoring defense remains second to none, but we saw this last year. Win at State College, over the resurgent Nittany Lions, and then I will start to buy into another BCS bowl appearance. On the other hand, what do we know about Boston College? A decent victory under the once-Golden Dome (yeah, I missed this game) against a 1-5 Irish team that struggles to get out of their own way. Matt Ryan, in the absence of a superior performance, has a real shot at not just reaching New York City...

Good job by the Sooners as well, though, not as impressive as I would have thought. Sam Bradford is going to have an outside shot at representing OU at the big ceremony, even if the Oklahoma schedule becomes easier due to the lack of another Big 12 power. Chase Daniel and the Missouri Tigers are a very good team, and may have a chance to upset the BCS title game picture in the Big 12 Championship, except that Kansas looms. That's right, only the Jayhawks remain undefeated, and as for Nebraska, well, perhaps the less said the better (housed, in Lincoln, by thirty-one). What is this, 1995? Er, we wouldn't have seen the Okie State result in 1995...

I suppose Mark Sanchez and the USC Trojans earn minimal points for perservering through a 20-13 hard slog against Arizona, check that, no they don't. Is this not a team headed for defeat in Eugene, Tempe, and Berkeley? True, all of those qualify as USC signature games, but their offense has posted just forty-three points, with a net margin of six, in their last two home games against "meh" opposition. Yet, if they can find a way to win out, well, let's not discuss the possibility of a team that lost to Stanford at home playing for all the marbles.

Can I rank Auburn even higher? Two losses says I cannot, even though they stifled once-Heisman favorite Darren McFadden and his partner-in-crime Felix Jones. Watch out at the Rouge, LSU. That game will decide the SEC West. Can UK actually win the SEC East? Sure, just defeat Tebow-led Florida at Commonwealth next week and hope the Gators can upset (strange verb, no?) South Carolina in Columbia. In other words, play better there than the Cats recently did, ick.

Very, very quietly, Oregon has returned to the national title game picture, ditto West Virginia. A win by the Ducks over the Trojans would place Dennis Dixon in definite Heisman consideration, assuming that, in the nation's toughest conference (sorry, SEC) Oregon can get through without another loss. Speaking of the mighty Pac-10, you had the Sun Devils as their last undefeated team, right? Of course. The oily Denny Erickson, traveling man, somehow has his team on the doorstep of Top 10 status. Indeed, the AP voters may well put them there now. Can they beat USC when it matters? Stay tuned...

Is it too late to discount Michigan from the national title race? Yes. We're not at the point where a team can lose 7-39 in their crib and recover that significantly, but my are we headed in that direction. The more things change in the Big 10 (adding a team, utilization of the spread offense) the more they stay the same: OSU @ Michigan for the Big 10 title, winner loses the big bowl game thereafter, natch.

Lastly, in the unquestioned game of the day, the Rich Brooks for SEC Coach of the Year bus shifted out of second gear, I realize at this point my resistance is futile. Woodson didn't have his best game, yet he made no crucial errors in the second half and his defense combined with LSU's foolish happy-passing resulted in the program's biggest football win since 1964 and probably second only to the toppling of unbeaten Oklahoma to close the 1950 campaign. The Tigers never seem to play well in Lexington, yet, finally, they got bit in the Bluegrass!!!

Snapshot Heisman ballot: Andre' Woodson, Mike Hart, Tim Tebow, Matt Ryan, and Sam Bradford. #1 v. #3 next week in Lexington, H20 should go next week in Champaign. Woodson needs ten wins, Hart needs a Big 10 title w/ a victory over Ohio State, Tebow needs an SEC Championship, and Ryan needs to go undefeated.

Week 7 Preview: Maturity Saturday

LSU @ Kentucky: The Bayou Bengals swing north after a euphoric SEC-defining victory over the Florida Gators and their possible Heisman Trophy winner, whereas the Cats, well, stank in Columbia, and lost their embryonic national championship hopes in a blizzard of bad turnovers. Louisiana State controls their own destiny, yet, in a theme of this week, do they have the maturity to go on the road and beat-up a talented UK offense that won't make as many mistakes at home? Yes, because this is the best team in college football, and they're eyeing a date with Oklahoma, close, for awhile, LSU 31 UK 20, as Kentucky needed to play this one at night.

Boston College @ Notre Dame: My, how the tables have turned. Remember 2002? No, what about 1993 and the epic battle ended by David Gordon's right foot? Not so coincidentally, ND has not regained their mystique since that 41-39 loss, but beating the Golden Eagles--unbeaten but relatively untested--would go a ways to restoring Domer pride. Does BC have the maturity to walk onto hallowed ground (cue the NBC music) and overwhelm an improving Irish? Long accustomed to playing the underdog in this genuninely good series, BC now is undefeated and with a Heisman candidate, ND 19 BC 17, wake up the echoes.

Missouri @ Oklahoma: The Big 12 Championship will prove won at the end of this tilt. Well, I suppose Mizz has two shots at the Sooners, but this is another test for Sam Bradford after skillfully upending once-relevant Texas last week. Can the Sooners roll over another key foe for the second straight week? Maturity, gentlemen. USC is finished as a national title contender, and their slot is now reserved for the Sooners. Sure, the Tigers thrashed the 'Huskers, but more importantly they beat a good Illinois team. The challenge here is not to allow a whipping, OU 55 MIZZ 14 to ruin their fast start, they'll see these guys again.

South Carolina @ North Carolina: A tricky matchup for the rolling 'Cocks in the middle of the SEC race. Butch Davis and the Heels just popped Miami in Chapel Hill next week. SoCaro brings a similar defense and a less-prone-to-mistakes quarterback. UNC is coming, possibly next year, but the 'Cocks get out alive, closer than most would forecast, SoCaro 24 UNC 14

Louisville @ Cincinnati: A very dangerous game for the Bearcats, likely quite pleased with themselves after vanquishing Rutgers. Despite their collapse against Kentucky, colossal upset to Syracuse, and general ineptitude against the Utes... Brian Brohm can still put the ball in the air, and the U of L can still put up the points. At 3-3, this is the last chance for Louisville to begin to salvage their season, as a beatdown in Morgantown looms. LOU 37 CIN 34, if CIN can hold down Brohm, their defense is for real and BCS bowl-worthy.

Auburn @ Arkansas: Think War Eagle might recollect the events of last year, if not, still images of Darren McFadden rumbling through the line and smashing the national title hopes of then-#2 Auburn are readily available. The Tigers still must meet LSU at the Rouge, yet their defense will face a supreme challenge in slowing down D-Mac and Felix Jones. Another Heisman-type day for #5, but the lack of consistency from the quarterback position gives this one away, AUB 23 ARK 21

Texas A&M @ Texas Tech: We don't have that much reason to believe in the Aggies, as that ill-fated trip to Coral Gables rendered a few weeks ago, on the other hand, at 5-1 and 2-0 in the Big 12, they must begin to receive serious consideration as a possible division contender. They get Texas at home, leaving only Oklahoma... and Texas Tech for South supremacy. An uneven team, they are precisely the kind most vulnerable to an ambush from "Basketball on Grass," TT 45 A&M 31

Purdue @ Michigan: Both teams had the schedules to make this one a Top 10 battle, yet a combined three embarrassing performances has left this battle wanting. The Boilers boast an offensive juggernaut of 45.0 ppg and four hundred plus... oh, that was before the Ohio State game? Silly me. Michigan's defense has had issues in four of their six contests, which could make this one more interesting than PU's recent history at the Big House suggests. Not, however, if Mike Hart has anything to say about it. MICH 41 PU 20, hope it's worse than that.

To recap...

Mature and focused: LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Auburn, and Michigan
Ripe for the picking: Boston College, Cincinnati, and Texas A@M

We didn't forget USC's game against 'Zona, did we?