Preseason Poll (Week of 19 AUG)

1. Louisiana State
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Southern California
6. Wisconsin
7. West Virginia
8. Florida State
9. Georgia
10. UCLA
11. Nebraska
12. Louisville
13. Oklahoma
14. Rutgers
15. Penn State
16. Tennessee
17. Virginia Tech
18. Ohio State
19. Boise State
20. South Carolina
21. California
22. Auburn
23. Oregon State
24. Arkansas
25. Miami (FL)

Comments:

The Tigers have a tailor-made schedule to reach the championship game (gotta beat FLA, possibly twice) and then could play before their partisans at the Superdome. Michigan can also punch its ticket with a win against Bucky, a team they've handled since the mid-1990s. Defending national champ Florida is perhaps given a generous rating, but their offense should have more explosiveness and Urban Meyer can find a way around the loss of nine defensive starters (for awhile and to a point). Rounding out the Top 5, Texas and USC. Colt McCoy is probably the most important player in the Big 12 (sorry, Sam Keller), if he remains healthy, the 'Horns should down the Sooners for the third straight year. The Trojans, as discussed previously, are hampered by a monster schedule, even if Notre Dame and Oregon don't look terribly fearsome at the moment.

With the exception of UCLA, the next group of teams have a decent chance to capture one of the two slots for N'Orleans. Think Wisconsin's journey to Columbus poses a problem? Think again. Ohio State has not defeated the Badgers at home since 1996 (a 14-10 nailbiter, losses in 1999, 2001, and 2004), we'll see if that was just Alvarez magic. The Mountaineers are a perpetual tease, still, I look for them to crunch Louisville in Morgantown, but even going unbeaten does not a BCS title game guarantee. Florida State, perhaps, is poised to return to at least 1989-1991 form, and Georgia is a sleeper pick to win the SEC for the third time in six campaigns.

Nos. 11-15 intrigue, but I see too many holes for each though. Nebraska may clip USC, but not Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. Louisville has a Heisman candidate at quarterback, but a loss to West Virginia seems likely. Penn State and Oklahoma are both beset with quarterback issues, and Rutgers will have a difficult time reaching the heights of 2006, nonetheless they will hover in the Top 15.

Ohio State, however, will not. Road night games at Seattle and State College (OSU: 2-4 at Beaver Stadium since 1994, twice gagging double-digit leads) are cause for severe concern, plus there's a Tressel shortcoming against Wisconsin (1-4) and the prospect of the most motivated Michigan team to take the field in four years. Chris Perry and Braylon Edwards had their way in a convincing 35-21 victory of then-#2 OSU in 2003, look for Mike Hart and Mario Mannigham (irrespective of what this guy says, the best WR in the Big 10) to perform similarly. Virginia Tech, as Pat Forde said on the radio the other day, always seems to drop a winnable game at home, plus LSU is on the schedule this year.

South Carolina could prove to "the Leap," as ESPN's Bill Simmons would put it, as Spurrier's guys nearly got Florida in Gainesville last season. This is year three of the project, and the deeper Gamecocks should return to the Top 20 nationally. I am not a buyer in Cal, something about getting waxed in Knoxville, blowing a conference game to Arizona(!), and failing to play an effective fourth quarter against USC... just rubs me the wrong way. Yes, the Tennessee game goes West this year, but M-Lynch will not participate. Ditto Auburn, as I lost a great deal of respect for the team that got caught looking ahead to Florida (whom they beat) and allowed an essentially-QB-less Razorback team to run them into the ground. Gone went BCS title dreams. Darren McFadden alone puts Arkansas in the Top 25, provided they don't sleep on Kentucky (shhhh).

Seven SEC schools make the Twenty-five, but I think LSU's defense, even without All America Landry (now in D. C.) will suffocate enough offenses to allow their new starting quarterback, to say, post more than three points against Auburn and ten against Florida. Not that such a performance would necessarily prevent Matt Flynn from going #1 in the NFL Draft, ahem. We should say this, however: LSU is in a dangerous position, they cannot lose because all of their key games are in Baton Rouge. Even Michigan with its favorable schedule, travels to Camp Randall. Florida could lose to LSU and get them in a rematch on a neutral field. Wisconsin conceivably could lose to Ohio State yet beat Michigan, though, as we've seen, a one-loss Big 10 team has very little chance at playing for a title (Exhibit A: 2006 Michigan). USC can most afford a loss, unfortunately they are the most likely Top 5 team to lose three times.