Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Yes, RT2020 has been harping on this game for the entire season, irrespective of Bucky's record, no team has given Jim Tressel's Buckeyes more trouble than U-Dub. Worse, OSU has not managed to defeat Wisconsin--at home--since, wait for it, 1996. The final score then, incidentally, read 17-14, this from one of a handful of Ohio State teams to record a +300 DELTA. On the other hand, Buckeye teams generally don't smash Penn State under the lights at Beaver Stadium, and P. J. Hill, in the same mould as Ron Dayne and Anthony Davis, may or may not go. Senator Tressel has accumulated a less-than-sterling 1-3 record against the Badgers, the lone win coming in the 2002 title season at Camp Randall. Todd Boeckman will not play that well again, yet can Wisconsin score enough? PSU throttled them a few weeks ago, still, by all means take the points. Give Ryan Petroius a clutch kick to allow the Bucks to escape. OSU 20 WIS 19
Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13
Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20
Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21
Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28
Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13
Showing posts with label Mike Hart. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Hart. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Monday, October 15, 2007
Week 8 Preview: Beat-a-bull?
South Florida @ Rutgers: Welcome to the national championship chase, USF. If the season ended today, the Bulls would play for it all. Alas, it does not, and worse for the highest-ranked team from Florida, key games are on the horizon. Thursday night is such a test... and the eyes of the football world will rest on Piscataway, NJ. #2 comes to town with a stingy defense and some opportunistic playmaking. Louisville helped deny Ohio State a national championship with a memorable loss under similar circumstances last year. RT2020 says USF is currently #1, but Ray Rice and Company will prove undefeated a bridge too far, RUT 25 USF 20 in the upset.
Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23
Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3
Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21
Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT
Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15
USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0
Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23
Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21
Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10
Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20
Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23
Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)
Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23
Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3
Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21
Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT
Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15
USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0
Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23
Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21
Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10
Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20
Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23
Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)
Monday, October 8, 2007
Week 7 Preview: Maturity Saturday
LSU @ Kentucky: The Bayou Bengals swing north after a euphoric SEC-defining victory over the Florida Gators and their possible Heisman Trophy winner, whereas the Cats, well, stank in Columbia, and lost their embryonic national championship hopes in a blizzard of bad turnovers. Louisiana State controls their own destiny, yet, in a theme of this week, do they have the maturity to go on the road and beat-up a talented UK offense that won't make as many mistakes at home? Yes, because this is the best team in college football, and they're eyeing a date with Oklahoma, close, for awhile, LSU 31 UK 20, as Kentucky needed to play this one at night.
Boston College @ Notre Dame: My, how the tables have turned. Remember 2002? No, what about 1993 and the epic battle ended by David Gordon's right foot? Not so coincidentally, ND has not regained their mystique since that 41-39 loss, but beating the Golden Eagles--unbeaten but relatively untested--would go a ways to restoring Domer pride. Does BC have the maturity to walk onto hallowed ground (cue the NBC music) and overwhelm an improving Irish? Long accustomed to playing the underdog in this genuninely good series, BC now is undefeated and with a Heisman candidate, ND 19 BC 17, wake up the echoes.
Missouri @ Oklahoma: The Big 12 Championship will prove won at the end of this tilt. Well, I suppose Mizz has two shots at the Sooners, but this is another test for Sam Bradford after skillfully upending once-relevant Texas last week. Can the Sooners roll over another key foe for the second straight week? Maturity, gentlemen. USC is finished as a national title contender, and their slot is now reserved for the Sooners. Sure, the Tigers thrashed the 'Huskers, but more importantly they beat a good Illinois team. The challenge here is not to allow a whipping, OU 55 MIZZ 14 to ruin their fast start, they'll see these guys again.
South Carolina @ North Carolina: A tricky matchup for the rolling 'Cocks in the middle of the SEC race. Butch Davis and the Heels just popped Miami in Chapel Hill next week. SoCaro brings a similar defense and a less-prone-to-mistakes quarterback. UNC is coming, possibly next year, but the 'Cocks get out alive, closer than most would forecast, SoCaro 24 UNC 14
Louisville @ Cincinnati: A very dangerous game for the Bearcats, likely quite pleased with themselves after vanquishing Rutgers. Despite their collapse against Kentucky, colossal upset to Syracuse, and general ineptitude against the Utes... Brian Brohm can still put the ball in the air, and the U of L can still put up the points. At 3-3, this is the last chance for Louisville to begin to salvage their season, as a beatdown in Morgantown looms. LOU 37 CIN 34, if CIN can hold down Brohm, their defense is for real and BCS bowl-worthy.
Auburn @ Arkansas: Think War Eagle might recollect the events of last year, if not, still images of Darren McFadden rumbling through the line and smashing the national title hopes of then-#2 Auburn are readily available. The Tigers still must meet LSU at the Rouge, yet their defense will face a supreme challenge in slowing down D-Mac and Felix Jones. Another Heisman-type day for #5, but the lack of consistency from the quarterback position gives this one away, AUB 23 ARK 21
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech: We don't have that much reason to believe in the Aggies, as that ill-fated trip to Coral Gables rendered a few weeks ago, on the other hand, at 5-1 and 2-0 in the Big 12, they must begin to receive serious consideration as a possible division contender. They get Texas at home, leaving only Oklahoma... and Texas Tech for South supremacy. An uneven team, they are precisely the kind most vulnerable to an ambush from "Basketball on Grass," TT 45 A&M 31
Purdue @ Michigan: Both teams had the schedules to make this one a Top 10 battle, yet a combined three embarrassing performances has left this battle wanting. The Boilers boast an offensive juggernaut of 45.0 ppg and four hundred plus... oh, that was before the Ohio State game? Silly me. Michigan's defense has had issues in four of their six contests, which could make this one more interesting than PU's recent history at the Big House suggests. Not, however, if Mike Hart has anything to say about it. MICH 41 PU 20, hope it's worse than that.
To recap...
Mature and focused: LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Auburn, and Michigan
Ripe for the picking: Boston College, Cincinnati, and Texas A@M
We didn't forget USC's game against 'Zona, did we?
Boston College @ Notre Dame: My, how the tables have turned. Remember 2002? No, what about 1993 and the epic battle ended by David Gordon's right foot? Not so coincidentally, ND has not regained their mystique since that 41-39 loss, but beating the Golden Eagles--unbeaten but relatively untested--would go a ways to restoring Domer pride. Does BC have the maturity to walk onto hallowed ground (cue the NBC music) and overwhelm an improving Irish? Long accustomed to playing the underdog in this genuninely good series, BC now is undefeated and with a Heisman candidate, ND 19 BC 17, wake up the echoes.
Missouri @ Oklahoma: The Big 12 Championship will prove won at the end of this tilt. Well, I suppose Mizz has two shots at the Sooners, but this is another test for Sam Bradford after skillfully upending once-relevant Texas last week. Can the Sooners roll over another key foe for the second straight week? Maturity, gentlemen. USC is finished as a national title contender, and their slot is now reserved for the Sooners. Sure, the Tigers thrashed the 'Huskers, but more importantly they beat a good Illinois team. The challenge here is not to allow a whipping, OU 55 MIZZ 14 to ruin their fast start, they'll see these guys again.
South Carolina @ North Carolina: A tricky matchup for the rolling 'Cocks in the middle of the SEC race. Butch Davis and the Heels just popped Miami in Chapel Hill next week. SoCaro brings a similar defense and a less-prone-to-mistakes quarterback. UNC is coming, possibly next year, but the 'Cocks get out alive, closer than most would forecast, SoCaro 24 UNC 14
Louisville @ Cincinnati: A very dangerous game for the Bearcats, likely quite pleased with themselves after vanquishing Rutgers. Despite their collapse against Kentucky, colossal upset to Syracuse, and general ineptitude against the Utes... Brian Brohm can still put the ball in the air, and the U of L can still put up the points. At 3-3, this is the last chance for Louisville to begin to salvage their season, as a beatdown in Morgantown looms. LOU 37 CIN 34, if CIN can hold down Brohm, their defense is for real and BCS bowl-worthy.
Auburn @ Arkansas: Think War Eagle might recollect the events of last year, if not, still images of Darren McFadden rumbling through the line and smashing the national title hopes of then-#2 Auburn are readily available. The Tigers still must meet LSU at the Rouge, yet their defense will face a supreme challenge in slowing down D-Mac and Felix Jones. Another Heisman-type day for #5, but the lack of consistency from the quarterback position gives this one away, AUB 23 ARK 21
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech: We don't have that much reason to believe in the Aggies, as that ill-fated trip to Coral Gables rendered a few weeks ago, on the other hand, at 5-1 and 2-0 in the Big 12, they must begin to receive serious consideration as a possible division contender. They get Texas at home, leaving only Oklahoma... and Texas Tech for South supremacy. An uneven team, they are precisely the kind most vulnerable to an ambush from "Basketball on Grass," TT 45 A&M 31
Purdue @ Michigan: Both teams had the schedules to make this one a Top 10 battle, yet a combined three embarrassing performances has left this battle wanting. The Boilers boast an offensive juggernaut of 45.0 ppg and four hundred plus... oh, that was before the Ohio State game? Silly me. Michigan's defense has had issues in four of their six contests, which could make this one more interesting than PU's recent history at the Big House suggests. Not, however, if Mike Hart has anything to say about it. MICH 41 PU 20, hope it's worse than that.
To recap...
Mature and focused: LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Auburn, and Michigan
Ripe for the picking: Boston College, Cincinnati, and Texas A@M
We didn't forget USC's game against 'Zona, did we?
Monday, September 24, 2007
At the Quarter Pole: Heisman Ballot
The Heisman Trophy remains the one of the most prestigious awards in all of sport, as only the Sullivan Award proves a rival in the field of amateur competition. Whilst frequently just another way to recognize the best quarterback or running back on the best team, the Heisman nonetheless generates debate, which is good for college football. Last year at this time, Ohio State's Troy Smith had led the Buckeyes to a 3-0 record--most persuasively a 24-7 win over then-#2 Texas--and in so doing displaced frontrunner Brady Quinn, whose Irish fell to Michigan in rather decisive fashion. The battlelines for this season have yet to be drawn.
Darren McFadden, the best player in college football, actually passed Quinn to finish second in the 2006 race, in addition, he is a running back, which would seem to augur well for his chances. Unfortunately, D-Mac is plagued by an already-two loss team that doesn't rate among the nation's elite programs. Worse, his numbers don't appear on course for a 2,000 yard 25 TD campaign now clearly necessary to wrest the award away from a competitor likely to contend for the national championship. Don't forget, Arkansas remained mathematically alive for the Not-Fiesta well into November, affording #5 an opportunity to achieve national recognition--especially after the Hogs hammered Auburn on the Plains. So, who can win it?
Tim Tebow, QB, FLA: His team is top-five, and he is already a known commodity, plus his combination rush/pass skills always go over well with the committee. Issues? For one, LSU. The tenacious Bayou Bengal defense could make mincemeat of his hopes, he may have two shots though, if Florida can win in Columbia and beat the Dawgs. A Heisman is likely in his future, though I'm thinking more 2008.
Mike Hart, RB, MICH: RT2020's preaseason pick, but the second loss to Oregon is a drag on the effort. Still, huge days at Wisconsin and, well, another game to close the season will give him a chance. Yet, like McFadden, Michigan is no longer a title contender, which means 2,000 yards is closet to a prerequisite for joining Woodson, Howard, and Harmon. He also has no chance when measured against the Oregon QB.
DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL: Two TDs in an upset of USC will put him in the race, otherwise, Desmond's cheerleading aside, I just don't see it. His school is not powerful enough, even if they are top-five material this autumn. I almost think CAL has to go undefeated, and even then, likely not enough.
Andre' Woodson, QB, UK: HOMER! HOMER! Well, a win next week against the OBC on the Coast and his name will appear on every ballot. Face facts: Kentucky last started 4-0 in their mythical 1950 title season of Bryant and Parilli! Even a home split against LSU and Florida, provided he plays well, will not knock him from the race. A ten-win season with that, ahem, record still intact would provide a strong resume. He's on course for a trip to NYC.
John David Booty, QB, USC: Four Heismans in seven seasons sounds almost impossible, yet this Trojan signal-caller, in big games @ CAL and ORE, will once again receive the opportunity to become the eighth USC star to hoist the hardware. Unlike any other candidate save Woodson, his destiny is entirely in his hands. A 12-0 USC mark will almost guarantee him at least second place, dispatched only by a 2,000 tailback, or a player from the SEC (or both).
Colt Brennan, QB, HI: His model is Andre Ware, the 1989 recipient from Houston that put up such gaudy numbers it made Tony Rice look pedestrian. I think he will make some Pro Bowls at the next level, yet I cannot look favorably on giving the award to him due to strength of schedule. It simply is not there. Worse, he would not have a potential BCS win (Hawaii is likely to receive a bid if undefeated) to buttress his argument. Great QB, but no.
Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE: Dixon v. Booty, Autzen, only one will exit with intact Heisman hopes. Actually, Dixon needs a UM resurgence (all the way to the Top 10?) more than an undefeated season. Oregon has posted a Heisman finalist as recently as 2001 and the swoosh money would ensure a competitive campaign if the Ducks don't falter to a Pac-10 weakling. He beats USC, though, and Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl, well, I think it's his to lose in the last few weeks of the season.
Pat White/Steve Slaton, QB/RB, WVA: I feel for these guys, but their hopes had rested on an undefeated Louisville showing up in Morgantown. Oops. Rutgers and South Florida are still there, yet these Mountaineers truly needed that high-profile game. WVA's typical late-season swoon, if replicated in 2007, would completely alienate their Heisman backers. The same written today was true of 2006: if undefeated, they have a chance--and a way in Pisacataway is crucial.
Yes, we could look at OU's Bradford, however, until proven otherwise freshmen do not win the Heisman Trophy, and certainly not before a sophomore. The "Big" 12 also does not provide enough statement games for Oklahoma. If the Sooners thrash Texas and finish 13-0, well, Bradford is headed to the ceremony... in a clapping role. Like Tebow, though, we may see more of him soon.
The ballot:
1. Andre' Woodson
2. Mike Hart
3. Tim Tebow
4. Darren McFadden
5. Dennis Dixon
Darren McFadden, the best player in college football, actually passed Quinn to finish second in the 2006 race, in addition, he is a running back, which would seem to augur well for his chances. Unfortunately, D-Mac is plagued by an already-two loss team that doesn't rate among the nation's elite programs. Worse, his numbers don't appear on course for a 2,000 yard 25 TD campaign now clearly necessary to wrest the award away from a competitor likely to contend for the national championship. Don't forget, Arkansas remained mathematically alive for the Not-Fiesta well into November, affording #5 an opportunity to achieve national recognition--especially after the Hogs hammered Auburn on the Plains. So, who can win it?
Tim Tebow, QB, FLA: His team is top-five, and he is already a known commodity, plus his combination rush/pass skills always go over well with the committee. Issues? For one, LSU. The tenacious Bayou Bengal defense could make mincemeat of his hopes, he may have two shots though, if Florida can win in Columbia and beat the Dawgs. A Heisman is likely in his future, though I'm thinking more 2008.
Mike Hart, RB, MICH: RT2020's preaseason pick, but the second loss to Oregon is a drag on the effort. Still, huge days at Wisconsin and, well, another game to close the season will give him a chance. Yet, like McFadden, Michigan is no longer a title contender, which means 2,000 yards is closet to a prerequisite for joining Woodson, Howard, and Harmon. He also has no chance when measured against the Oregon QB.
DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL: Two TDs in an upset of USC will put him in the race, otherwise, Desmond's cheerleading aside, I just don't see it. His school is not powerful enough, even if they are top-five material this autumn. I almost think CAL has to go undefeated, and even then, likely not enough.
Andre' Woodson, QB, UK: HOMER! HOMER! Well, a win next week against the OBC on the Coast and his name will appear on every ballot. Face facts: Kentucky last started 4-0 in their mythical 1950 title season of Bryant and Parilli! Even a home split against LSU and Florida, provided he plays well, will not knock him from the race. A ten-win season with that, ahem, record still intact would provide a strong resume. He's on course for a trip to NYC.
John David Booty, QB, USC: Four Heismans in seven seasons sounds almost impossible, yet this Trojan signal-caller, in big games @ CAL and ORE, will once again receive the opportunity to become the eighth USC star to hoist the hardware. Unlike any other candidate save Woodson, his destiny is entirely in his hands. A 12-0 USC mark will almost guarantee him at least second place, dispatched only by a 2,000 tailback, or a player from the SEC (or both).
Colt Brennan, QB, HI: His model is Andre Ware, the 1989 recipient from Houston that put up such gaudy numbers it made Tony Rice look pedestrian. I think he will make some Pro Bowls at the next level, yet I cannot look favorably on giving the award to him due to strength of schedule. It simply is not there. Worse, he would not have a potential BCS win (Hawaii is likely to receive a bid if undefeated) to buttress his argument. Great QB, but no.
Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE: Dixon v. Booty, Autzen, only one will exit with intact Heisman hopes. Actually, Dixon needs a UM resurgence (all the way to the Top 10?) more than an undefeated season. Oregon has posted a Heisman finalist as recently as 2001 and the swoosh money would ensure a competitive campaign if the Ducks don't falter to a Pac-10 weakling. He beats USC, though, and Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl, well, I think it's his to lose in the last few weeks of the season.
Pat White/Steve Slaton, QB/RB, WVA: I feel for these guys, but their hopes had rested on an undefeated Louisville showing up in Morgantown. Oops. Rutgers and South Florida are still there, yet these Mountaineers truly needed that high-profile game. WVA's typical late-season swoon, if replicated in 2007, would completely alienate their Heisman backers. The same written today was true of 2006: if undefeated, they have a chance--and a way in Pisacataway is crucial.
Yes, we could look at OU's Bradford, however, until proven otherwise freshmen do not win the Heisman Trophy, and certainly not before a sophomore. The "Big" 12 also does not provide enough statement games for Oklahoma. If the Sooners thrash Texas and finish 13-0, well, Bradford is headed to the ceremony... in a clapping role. Like Tebow, though, we may see more of him soon.
The ballot:
1. Andre' Woodson
2. Mike Hart
3. Tim Tebow
4. Darren McFadden
5. Dennis Dixon
Sunday, September 2, 2007
Crickets in Ann Arbor
Because Florida State still has to play Clemson tomorrow, I will hold off on my new Top 25, Heisman update, and UK review (well done, gentlemen). In the meantime, well, there's no getting around it, I have to create a rationale for the 32-34 defeat suffered by my #2 team (#5 nationally), on their home field, with four preseason-possible All Americas on offense, including my Heisman pick, to a subdivision team from the mountains of North Carolina.
No Virginia, Michigan football will not finish 12-0 this November or hold the crystal football in N'Orleans. Yes, they have lost their third consecutive game, allowing at least thirty points in each of them.
My strong Ohio State sympathies aside, yesterday's result was awful for a conference decimated in two BCS games last January, and schadenfreude is not a part of this post--especially when I have so much egg on my face as a prognosticator. Suffice to say, the Wolverines will not rank #2 in the next poll. Before digging into the particulars, a word about Mike Hart. The All America was the ONLY reason Michigan even led in the second half (for about three minutes) after his sizzling 54-yard run to paydirt. Well, from here on in, matters will read considerably darker for the blue-and-yellow helmets.
Grasping for straws, I want to reiterate that this team should still win the Big 10 title, but getting out of September looks a good deal more challenging than, say, last week.
And all praise to Appalachian State...
Speed kills. Or perhaps more importantly, it camouflages if not erases other deficits, namely strength and size. App-y State looked to have superior speed at the skill positions, which shouldn't necessarily shock us. A few years ago, when considering the merits of all-time university teams, I discounted both UM and Notre Dame (their 3-33 pasting doesn't even warrant elaboration) on account of speed. Save for their co-title 1997 season, loaded with Charles Woodson, Ian Gold, Dhani Jones, and James Hall, Michigan has not boasted fast defenses. Even last year, their incredible game one through eleven statistics resulted from a vicious run defense, not speed in the back seven. Of course, it is quite possible UM will not face another quarterback as problematic as Armanti Edwards, who may have played the best first half of any quarterback, ever (no incompletions, no turnovers, four total TDs).
While Edwards, when not crushed by Crable and Co., crashed down to earth throughout most of the second half, he still had enough scrambling ability and arm strength to drive his team in the final 1:30. Just as Troy Smith had done on the very same field in November 2005. Michigan fans would well note the similarities between the home team's possessions prior to those final drives. Nursing a one-point lead, UM drew a critical penalty on third-and-short, forcing a throw on third-and-long. Given that Hart had rumbled for around 120 yards in the second half, no small thing. Unlike 2005 v. OSU, when Lloyd Carr opted for the pooch punt, Michigan tried a field goal, only to see it blocked. Within a play, App-y State had found the M logo, and didn't look back.
Now, great (or allegedly great) teams win with stars, and clearly UM lost this game because #20 wasn't much of a factor in the mid-portion, and #86 was all but invisible. The latter of course refers to Mario Manningham, previously rated as an ICBM in some quarters, and the best WR in the country (gulp) in others. Aside from a potentially game-saving grab in the final fifteen seconds, he contributed virtually nothing of significance to the cause. For an All-America, a disastrous day.
Which brings us to Chad Henne. After an impressive opening, 0-3 took on an inconsistent form for the rest of the afternoon, awful, in terms of the forced interception in the second half. Thirty-two offensive points is normally a job well done for quarterbacks, yet not with this offense, once considered Top 5 in the nation. Henne could not ice the game late in the fourth and did not complete enough third-and-medium throws to allow UM to escape the Big House with a W.
I think most sensible people understood UM's defense would kill its chance at a national title; I just thought it would take until the Not Sugar for this to occur. Losing that many key players (ask OSU 2006) is very difficult to overcome. The secondary, however, is even more precarious then last autumn. Absent Leon Hall, UM has no defensive backs worthy of praise, except perhaps a freshman that is not yet Law or Jackson. Fortunately, save for Oregon, very few teams on their schedule are equipped to take full advantage of it. Neither Penn State, Wisconsin, nor Ohio State present a quarterback as challenging as Edwards, which means UM should defeat all of them, particularly since two of the three are in Ann Arbor. We don't even have to mention the Irish, do we?
Next week is huge for Michigan, but not as big as the Penn State game. Whether UM wins or loses will have almost no bearing on the Big 10 race, save to break a possible 7-1, 6-2 tie for the right to play USC/Texas/Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. A second loss, though, would place enormous pressure on Coach Carr and categorically eliminate a BCS slot absent a conference title. So, I'll take Michigan to stomp the Ducks (2003 revenge?) by four touchdowns, with 200+ for Heisman Hart. Of course, I'm also the fellow who predicted Michigan would beat USC and OSU in 2006, OSU in 2005, Texas in 2004, so perhaps my clairvoyance is best left to U. S. presidential elections.
No Virginia, Michigan football will not finish 12-0 this November or hold the crystal football in N'Orleans. Yes, they have lost their third consecutive game, allowing at least thirty points in each of them.
My strong Ohio State sympathies aside, yesterday's result was awful for a conference decimated in two BCS games last January, and schadenfreude is not a part of this post--especially when I have so much egg on my face as a prognosticator. Suffice to say, the Wolverines will not rank #2 in the next poll. Before digging into the particulars, a word about Mike Hart. The All America was the ONLY reason Michigan even led in the second half (for about three minutes) after his sizzling 54-yard run to paydirt. Well, from here on in, matters will read considerably darker for the blue-and-yellow helmets.
Grasping for straws, I want to reiterate that this team should still win the Big 10 title, but getting out of September looks a good deal more challenging than, say, last week.
And all praise to Appalachian State...
Speed kills. Or perhaps more importantly, it camouflages if not erases other deficits, namely strength and size. App-y State looked to have superior speed at the skill positions, which shouldn't necessarily shock us. A few years ago, when considering the merits of all-time university teams, I discounted both UM and Notre Dame (their 3-33 pasting doesn't even warrant elaboration) on account of speed. Save for their co-title 1997 season, loaded with Charles Woodson, Ian Gold, Dhani Jones, and James Hall, Michigan has not boasted fast defenses. Even last year, their incredible game one through eleven statistics resulted from a vicious run defense, not speed in the back seven. Of course, it is quite possible UM will not face another quarterback as problematic as Armanti Edwards, who may have played the best first half of any quarterback, ever (no incompletions, no turnovers, four total TDs).
While Edwards, when not crushed by Crable and Co., crashed down to earth throughout most of the second half, he still had enough scrambling ability and arm strength to drive his team in the final 1:30. Just as Troy Smith had done on the very same field in November 2005. Michigan fans would well note the similarities between the home team's possessions prior to those final drives. Nursing a one-point lead, UM drew a critical penalty on third-and-short, forcing a throw on third-and-long. Given that Hart had rumbled for around 120 yards in the second half, no small thing. Unlike 2005 v. OSU, when Lloyd Carr opted for the pooch punt, Michigan tried a field goal, only to see it blocked. Within a play, App-y State had found the M logo, and didn't look back.
Now, great (or allegedly great) teams win with stars, and clearly UM lost this game because #20 wasn't much of a factor in the mid-portion, and #86 was all but invisible. The latter of course refers to Mario Manningham, previously rated as an ICBM in some quarters, and the best WR in the country (gulp) in others. Aside from a potentially game-saving grab in the final fifteen seconds, he contributed virtually nothing of significance to the cause. For an All-America, a disastrous day.
Which brings us to Chad Henne. After an impressive opening, 0-3 took on an inconsistent form for the rest of the afternoon, awful, in terms of the forced interception in the second half. Thirty-two offensive points is normally a job well done for quarterbacks, yet not with this offense, once considered Top 5 in the nation. Henne could not ice the game late in the fourth and did not complete enough third-and-medium throws to allow UM to escape the Big House with a W.
I think most sensible people understood UM's defense would kill its chance at a national title; I just thought it would take until the Not Sugar for this to occur. Losing that many key players (ask OSU 2006) is very difficult to overcome. The secondary, however, is even more precarious then last autumn. Absent Leon Hall, UM has no defensive backs worthy of praise, except perhaps a freshman that is not yet Law or Jackson. Fortunately, save for Oregon, very few teams on their schedule are equipped to take full advantage of it. Neither Penn State, Wisconsin, nor Ohio State present a quarterback as challenging as Edwards, which means UM should defeat all of them, particularly since two of the three are in Ann Arbor. We don't even have to mention the Irish, do we?
Next week is huge for Michigan, but not as big as the Penn State game. Whether UM wins or loses will have almost no bearing on the Big 10 race, save to break a possible 7-1, 6-2 tie for the right to play USC/Texas/Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. A second loss, though, would place enormous pressure on Coach Carr and categorically eliminate a BCS slot absent a conference title. So, I'll take Michigan to stomp the Ducks (2003 revenge?) by four touchdowns, with 200+ for Heisman Hart. Of course, I'm also the fellow who predicted Michigan would beat USC and OSU in 2006, OSU in 2005, Texas in 2004, so perhaps my clairvoyance is best left to U. S. presidential elections.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
D-Mac's to Lose?
After a scintillating sophomore season capped off by the Doak Walker Award and a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, Arkansas tailback Darren McFadden (D-Mac) would seem the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in 2007. My question is not to his talent, but his team, as in, will the Hogs win enough games? Can they prevent LSU or Auburn from winning the SEC West in their place? I say no. Shockingly, the experts at ESPN.com disagree.
"McFadden has the numbers and the style to keep voters happy. Only two backs in SEC history have ever rushed for 1,000 yards in their freshman and sophomore seasons: Herschel Walker and McFadden. The Arkansas tailback accounted for touchdowns in four different ways last season: 14 as a runner, three as a passer, one as a receiver and one as a kick returner. If McFadden can duplicate this performance and the Hogs, coming off one of the crazier soap-opera offseasons in years, can get back to the SEC title game, he will be tough to beat."
Bruce Feldman brings up a good point: any comparison to Herschel Walker is outstanding for a player's cause. I simply dissent from his implicit premise that McFadden will get the back to the SEC title game. If he does, I will strongly endorse his candidacy. It took four touchdown passes from Troy Smith in a 42-39 victory of #2 Michigan for me to finally rank the eventual Heisman winner over D-Mac.
If not Darren McFadden, then...
CONTENDERS (as ranked by ESPN's panel):
1. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
2. John David Booty, QB, USC
3. Brian Brohm, QB, LOU
4. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
5. Mike Hart, RB, MICH
For either Slaton or his quarterback, Pat White, to even remotely come close to the award, West Virginia must go undefeated in the regular season. Must. Also, not disappearing in the latter part of the year would help too. For all its talent, Rich Rodriguez's team never looked the same after a stinging loss in Lousiville. True, they knocked off Rutgers, but by that point had forfeited status as a BCS bowl contender.
A USC quarterback, again? Maybe. There's no denying Booty looked like Palmer and Leinart against the Michigan secondary, but there is no hiding his rather pedestrian game against UCLA, either. Another factor against him? USC is blessed with tremendous depth at QB, which could lead Pete Carroll, after a Booty washout in Lincoln, to give Sanchez a shot. I'm not a Booty believer just yet.
Brian Brohm? Same criteria as Slaton/White, must not lose a game, which means no second-half egg against Rutgers that cost Ohio State a national championship. Boost? Andre Woodson has received a good deal of publicity following Maisel's bold proclamation, whipping UK at their house will do a lot for his candidacy.
Colt Brennan must post Andre Ware-type numbers to even merit a place in New York City. Very few people will watch his games, even though he could make a Pro Bowl or two later in his career. Possibly the nation's best passer, but the lack of a major conference schedule (and TV time) will not yield him the Heisman.
My pick to win the trophy is Mike Hart of Michigan, the school's first serious RB Heisman candidate since Tyrone Wheatley in 1993 (yes, that didn't end well). Michigan is out of excuses this season. Notwithstanding a nasty night affair in Madison, the other important contests are at the Big House: Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State. Assuming their defense retains 85% of its 2006 form (the front seven, that is), the Wolverines are two touchdowns better than all of those teams. Hart will rush for 150-200 yards against all of them, and it is hard to fathom the best player from last year's Epic in Columbus ending his career 0-4 versus the Buckeyes.
Darkhorses?
Ian Johnson of Boise State must run for 2,000 yards, and even then, too many running backs are ahead of him. The Blue Turfers may record another perfect record, but it's asking too much for McFadden, Slaton, and Hart to slip up. Chad Henne is an interesting case, although his expected All-Big 10 season may have the net effect of costing Hart the Heisman Trophy. Clearly, he must lead Michigan past Ohio State. If he does that, possibly, if not the first eleven games will matter very little.
Interesting that only one of the panel's nominees is a sophomore or a freshman (Colt McCoy, QB, Texas--and last at that) despite recent trips to the show by underclassmen McFadden and Reggie Bush (2004).
I would add two names: Florida QB Tim Tebow and Michigan WR Mario Manningham. With the departure of Calvin Johnson, Manningham, who exploded onto the national scene during Michigan's 47-21 demolition of then-#2 Notre Dame last year, is certainly the best wideout in the country. He may in fact also prove the best player, but absent Howard/Woodson-like effectiveness on returns, few voters are going to tap a receiver. Tebow's versatility helped the Gators to a national title a year ago, now, as a super sophomore, he may take the next leap, though he's not nearly as polished a passer as either Grossman (2001) or Wuerffel (1995, 1996), yet. Nevertheless, if Florida stays in the Top 5 most of the year, Tebow may well take the Southeastern bloc of Heisman voters.
In 2006, everyone assumed the race was Brady Quinn's to lose, and, owing much to Notre Dame's humiliation at the hands of Michigan, he lost it to Troy Smith of Ohio State. McFadden does not have the golden helmet to assist his cause, in fact, the Razorbacks do not regularly achieve a national following. If Arkansas is out of the title chase early, he's going to need 2,000 yards and a lot more touchdowns than last season. I think Hart can get it done with 1,800 yards and twelve victories, though an average-per-carry north of five would do much for his cause. Michigan fans slightly concerned that an impressive QB/RB/WR combo might spell doom for #20's odds, look only to Ohio State, 1995. Terry Glenn played perhaps the finest wide receiver season I've yet to witness (for eleven games anyway) and Eddie George easily won the Heisman Trophy (thanks, Orlando Pace).
West Virginia always trips up somewhere, exit Slaton and White. Louisville does not figure to challenge for the championship, exit Brohm.
Absolute darkhorse: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State. Perhaps the only player standing between OSU and 8-4, this phenomenally skilled back could carry a 10-1 team into Ann Arbor with 1,600 and twenty scores (if he can cease fumbling long enough). Given his ordinary sporting cast, Wells will merit serious consideration if he stays healthy and performs to his capabilities, absent a sterling line, quarterback, or receiving option.
Prediction:
1. Mike Hart, RB, MICH
2. Darren McFadden, RB, ARK
3. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
4. Chris Wells, RB, OSU
5. Tim Tebow, QB, FLA
6. Mario Manningham, WR, MICH
7. John David Booty, QB, USC
8. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
9. Andre' Woodson, QB, UK (homer alert)
10. Ian Johnson, RB, BSU
Would Hart have a chance against a swarming Bayou Bengal defense on the Superdome floor, however? Umm...
"McFadden has the numbers and the style to keep voters happy. Only two backs in SEC history have ever rushed for 1,000 yards in their freshman and sophomore seasons: Herschel Walker and McFadden. The Arkansas tailback accounted for touchdowns in four different ways last season: 14 as a runner, three as a passer, one as a receiver and one as a kick returner. If McFadden can duplicate this performance and the Hogs, coming off one of the crazier soap-opera offseasons in years, can get back to the SEC title game, he will be tough to beat."
Bruce Feldman brings up a good point: any comparison to Herschel Walker is outstanding for a player's cause. I simply dissent from his implicit premise that McFadden will get the back to the SEC title game. If he does, I will strongly endorse his candidacy. It took four touchdown passes from Troy Smith in a 42-39 victory of #2 Michigan for me to finally rank the eventual Heisman winner over D-Mac.
If not Darren McFadden, then...
CONTENDERS (as ranked by ESPN's panel):
1. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
2. John David Booty, QB, USC
3. Brian Brohm, QB, LOU
4. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
5. Mike Hart, RB, MICH
For either Slaton or his quarterback, Pat White, to even remotely come close to the award, West Virginia must go undefeated in the regular season. Must. Also, not disappearing in the latter part of the year would help too. For all its talent, Rich Rodriguez's team never looked the same after a stinging loss in Lousiville. True, they knocked off Rutgers, but by that point had forfeited status as a BCS bowl contender.
A USC quarterback, again? Maybe. There's no denying Booty looked like Palmer and Leinart against the Michigan secondary, but there is no hiding his rather pedestrian game against UCLA, either. Another factor against him? USC is blessed with tremendous depth at QB, which could lead Pete Carroll, after a Booty washout in Lincoln, to give Sanchez a shot. I'm not a Booty believer just yet.
Brian Brohm? Same criteria as Slaton/White, must not lose a game, which means no second-half egg against Rutgers that cost Ohio State a national championship. Boost? Andre Woodson has received a good deal of publicity following Maisel's bold proclamation, whipping UK at their house will do a lot for his candidacy.
Colt Brennan must post Andre Ware-type numbers to even merit a place in New York City. Very few people will watch his games, even though he could make a Pro Bowl or two later in his career. Possibly the nation's best passer, but the lack of a major conference schedule (and TV time) will not yield him the Heisman.
My pick to win the trophy is Mike Hart of Michigan, the school's first serious RB Heisman candidate since Tyrone Wheatley in 1993 (yes, that didn't end well). Michigan is out of excuses this season. Notwithstanding a nasty night affair in Madison, the other important contests are at the Big House: Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State. Assuming their defense retains 85% of its 2006 form (the front seven, that is), the Wolverines are two touchdowns better than all of those teams. Hart will rush for 150-200 yards against all of them, and it is hard to fathom the best player from last year's Epic in Columbus ending his career 0-4 versus the Buckeyes.
Darkhorses?
Ian Johnson of Boise State must run for 2,000 yards, and even then, too many running backs are ahead of him. The Blue Turfers may record another perfect record, but it's asking too much for McFadden, Slaton, and Hart to slip up. Chad Henne is an interesting case, although his expected All-Big 10 season may have the net effect of costing Hart the Heisman Trophy. Clearly, he must lead Michigan past Ohio State. If he does that, possibly, if not the first eleven games will matter very little.
Interesting that only one of the panel's nominees is a sophomore or a freshman (Colt McCoy, QB, Texas--and last at that) despite recent trips to the show by underclassmen McFadden and Reggie Bush (2004).
I would add two names: Florida QB Tim Tebow and Michigan WR Mario Manningham. With the departure of Calvin Johnson, Manningham, who exploded onto the national scene during Michigan's 47-21 demolition of then-#2 Notre Dame last year, is certainly the best wideout in the country. He may in fact also prove the best player, but absent Howard/Woodson-like effectiveness on returns, few voters are going to tap a receiver. Tebow's versatility helped the Gators to a national title a year ago, now, as a super sophomore, he may take the next leap, though he's not nearly as polished a passer as either Grossman (2001) or Wuerffel (1995, 1996), yet. Nevertheless, if Florida stays in the Top 5 most of the year, Tebow may well take the Southeastern bloc of Heisman voters.
In 2006, everyone assumed the race was Brady Quinn's to lose, and, owing much to Notre Dame's humiliation at the hands of Michigan, he lost it to Troy Smith of Ohio State. McFadden does not have the golden helmet to assist his cause, in fact, the Razorbacks do not regularly achieve a national following. If Arkansas is out of the title chase early, he's going to need 2,000 yards and a lot more touchdowns than last season. I think Hart can get it done with 1,800 yards and twelve victories, though an average-per-carry north of five would do much for his cause. Michigan fans slightly concerned that an impressive QB/RB/WR combo might spell doom for #20's odds, look only to Ohio State, 1995. Terry Glenn played perhaps the finest wide receiver season I've yet to witness (for eleven games anyway) and Eddie George easily won the Heisman Trophy (thanks, Orlando Pace).
West Virginia always trips up somewhere, exit Slaton and White. Louisville does not figure to challenge for the championship, exit Brohm.
Absolute darkhorse: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State. Perhaps the only player standing between OSU and 8-4, this phenomenally skilled back could carry a 10-1 team into Ann Arbor with 1,600 and twenty scores (if he can cease fumbling long enough). Given his ordinary sporting cast, Wells will merit serious consideration if he stays healthy and performs to his capabilities, absent a sterling line, quarterback, or receiving option.
Prediction:
1. Mike Hart, RB, MICH
2. Darren McFadden, RB, ARK
3. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
4. Chris Wells, RB, OSU
5. Tim Tebow, QB, FLA
6. Mario Manningham, WR, MICH
7. John David Booty, QB, USC
8. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
9. Andre' Woodson, QB, UK (homer alert)
10. Ian Johnson, RB, BSU
Would Hart have a chance against a swarming Bayou Bengal defense on the Superdome floor, however? Umm...
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