1. Louisiana State (+4)
2. Georgia (-1)
3. Southern California (+1)
4. Missouri (+8)
5. West Virginia (+11)
6. Kansas (+4)
7. Auburn (+4)
8. Oklahoma (-5)
9. Tennessee (+4)
10. Virginia Tech (-4)
11. Ohio State (-9)
12. Michigan (+5)
13. Florida (-6)
14. Texas (NR)
15. Cincinnati (-9)
16. Illinois (-8)
17. Arizona State (-8)
18. Brigham Young (+1)
19. Boston College (+3)
20. Oregon (NR)
21. Oregon State (NR)
22. Penn State (+3)
23. Mississippi State (NR)
24. Clemson (-4)
25. Texas Tech (NR)
Just as I said way back when, the Bayou Bengals get it done! Their thirty-one point run was the difference, coupled with two killer OSU plays (the dropped TD pass and the roughing the punter), which obscured a banner night for Beanie Wells. Despite a 10-0 lead, Ohio State played an atrocious second quarter that bled a bit too far into the third. Even without their All-America safety, LSU's defense, whilst bending a bit, garnered sacks at key times and did not muff INT opportunities.
I offered that the SEC champs needed a two-touchdown victory to merit the title, and they got it.
Showing posts with label Not Sugar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Not Sugar. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Saturday, January 5, 2008
You Can Argue Against Ohio State...
but can you truly argue for anyone else?
Some have complained quietly and not-so quietly that Ohio State does not deserve to take the field in Monday's BCS Championship Game in N'Orleans. Colin Cowherd, an interesting host on ESPN Radio, made a good point about how the system loses when teams get rewarded for playing inferior competition. So, let's get a few things out of the way.
1) OSU played a Division I-AA or subdivision school in the form of Youngstown State, inexcusable, no doubt about it, which is why this game doesn't count in the BCS.
2) The Buckeyes toughest non-conference game, in a slate that included Akron, was a mid-afternoon tilt in Seattle, a team that could not defeat Hawaii and finished well off the pace in the Pac-10. Here is the dirty little secret: few in Columbus thought 2007 was a title-aspiring year, knowing that Troy Smith and others were on the way out, and, importantly, knowing odd-years mean trips to State College and Ann Arbor. Yes, I can fall under the label of "Buckeye homer" but I maintain you must grade OSU's schedule differently in odd-numbered years.
3) Ohio State lost AT HOME to a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog and second-place team in their conference that failed to defeat a weak Iowa team earlier in the year. It was only the self-destructive qualities of the Illini against Michigan that cost the Zookers a share of the conference crown.
In almost any other year, save perhaps 1990, this resume is nowhere near good enough to play for a title. Consider that in 2002 the Bucks defeated a quality opponent in Texas Tech, the co-Pac 10 champion (Wazzu State), in addition to their full Big 10 slate, net, 13-0. Last year they beat defending national champion Texas in Austin, plus #2 Michigan to close the season, net, 12-0. Ok, 2007 clearly doesn't measure up, and the home loss reeks of 1998, so we have made that clear. On the other hand?
In ascending order of merit, with final verdict*:
HAWAII (pre-Sugar Bowl embarrassment): Yes, Michigan could've played them, and yes, they head to Gainesville next season, so what. Their second-best win of the year was by seven, at home, to a less-healthy Washington team that Ohio State beat by nineteen in the Northwest. Are you going to tell me Boise State, again at home, is a better win than Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State? Did anyone play an easier schedule? ANYONE? If you pick this undefeated team you're also buying Tulane '98 over Florida State or even Boise State '06 over Florida.
VERDICT: Hell no. The question is whether the Rainbow Warriors even deserved a Top 25 ranking.
KANSAS (pre-Orange Bowl win): When a team played a significantly weaker strength of schedule than Ohio State, well, that doesn't say much for its chances. No Oklahoma, no Texas. They did beat Colorado in Boulder, but in their ONE huge game of the season they got smacked around by Missouri, and that was closer to a home game than a roadie. It was a better loss than OSU's, but the Buckeyes wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are better than KU's three best regular season wins.
VERDICT: Beat the teams it should, lost to the one it could have beat, did not schedule an OOC game even on the level of OSU/WSH, a firm no.
WEST VIRGINIA (pre-Fiesta Bowl domination): Let's begin by saying their non-conference schedule did include a game against the SEC. Good. Yet, the disappearance of South Florida from the national picture really hurts them here, the Bulls didn't even come close to the conference crown after reaching #2 in the polls at one point. And after a severe thrashing of UCONN the week prior, a 9-13 "L" at the hands of a non-bowl Pittsburgh team, AT HOME, requires a word stronger than "choke" and I have none for the occasion. Once again, two losses, and the last one much worse than Ohio State's and Oklahoma's to Colorado.
VERDICT: No team since Oklahoma '01 soiled themselves at a more inopportune time and I don't care if Patrick White had to leave the game, they only needed ONE MORE TOUCHDOWN!!!, an easy no.
VIRGINIA TECH (pre-Orange Bowl loss): Really? You're telling me the ACC is that much rougher than the Big 10, honestly? And do teams that lose 7-45, even if on the road to the eventual #2, deserve title shots? Ohio State lost by seven, in a game influenced by a terrible non-fumble in the first quarter, and never felt threatened deep into the fourth in any of their other games. Furthermore, the Hokies choked at home against Matt Ryan and the Golden Eagles, or they would have likely earned a rematch against LSU.
VERDICT: No, but credit to playing LSU at Tiger Stadium, yet you need to do better than a thirty-eight point loss, and while this season you could lose at home, to do so AND get blown out of the road, no, irrespective of the computers.
OKLAHOMA (pre-Fiesta Bowl calamity): I love the two wins over Missouri, even before the Tigers shredded Arkansas, Texas wasn't terrible this year either. On the other hand, while we can paper over the loss in Lubbock due to Sam Bradford's concussion (maybe), what do we say of the debacle in Boulder? Did you see Colorado in a bowl game this season? This also wasn't an out of conference tilt, but a non-division game, played against a struggling program. Bottom line: a worse loss than OSU's to Illinois and the extra loss kills their candidacy.
VERDICT: Close, but no. Two losses, neither to a team playing in a major bowl game is just not going to get it done, 24-7 in Boulder, boys, 24-7 in Boulder.
MISSOURI (pre-Cotton Bowl triumph): I love the SEC and Big 10 OOC tilts, especially since the Big 10 team DID beat Ohio State. Two losses stings but both were to OU--and they beat Kansas on neutral/unfriendly ground. I guess there is one way to answer this, if the Bucks drew the Sooners in Norman and in San Antonio, could they win either game? The odds are reasonable, but the late loss (decisively too) is the difference.
VERDICT: Very close, but no. Excellent resume, just needed a split with OU and couldn't get it.
GEORGIA (pre-Sugar Bowl walloping): I had them #1 before their bowl game and they didn't disappoint, perhaps the hottest team in America and the only one to convincingly defeat Florida. Still, South Carolina, as noted before in this space, did them no favors late in the year, and the atrocious performance in Knoxville killed their title hopes. A win over the Vols would have drawn them LSU and possibly given them another huge win. Also, despite the powerful SEC, no nice OOC win (Tempe comes next autumn), and no division title.
VERDICT: Toss-up, would they beat OSU? Yes. Does that erase the stigma of a 0-35 deficit to Tennessee and a home loss to a conference foe that collapsed? Georgia Tech fell away too, give me the Bucks, no for the Dawgs.
USC (pre-Rose Bowl smashing): Let's make one thing clear, if they beat Stanford, no one has a problem with their title game presence, only question is whether OSU or LSU plays them. The loss to Oregon in Eugene to a healthy Dennis Dixon, once a Heisman frontrunner, is better than any of the other losses in consideration. Although Cal disappeared, the Pac-10 still had a good year, and the Trojans went 5-1 on the road to include the always rowdy Sun Devil Stadium. Notre Dame didn't help them, though. You have to love Coach Pete Carroll's fearlessness (okay, maybe not in the case of Idaho--but look at 2008) and the six road games. The enormous question: does a team that would likely take Ohio State still deserve to jump them with a FORTY-POINT FAVORED HOME LOSS TO A NON-BOWL TEAM A WEEK PRIOR TO PLAYING ANOTHER NON-BOWL TEAM? In other words, Michigan may have looked ahead to Oregon whilst playing Appy State, what was Troy's excuse???
VERDICT: Stanford beat a deflated Cal, yet did nothing else the rest of the year, to include losing to an Irish team that fell AT HOME to Air Force and (gasp) Navy. I don't care if John David Booty's finger or injuries and inexperience permitted a BACK-UP QB to hit multiple fourth-down passes to end it 24-23, Cardinal--in the COLISEUM!!! I'm sorry, you are a bona fide dynasty, but the Stanford loss coupled with a tough one at Autzen doesn't give you much of an argument, even if a better one than anyone else.
Conclusions...
Hawaii, Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma clearly lose the argument, at least to my mind. Missouri, Georgia, and USC do have a case, but for reasons aforementioned it is not a particularly good one, even for the latter two schools. In fact, USC '02 had a better argument against OSU '02, due to two close road losses to two very good teams in a vicious schedule to include a good Notre Dame team, then in the present.
Everyone had holes this year, no major school went undefeated and no major school with one-loss had a better track-record than Ohio State. Are some two loss schools better? Yes, perhaps one, perhaps three, perhaps five, did ANY of them clearly earn the bid over the Bucks?
The fair-minded would say, no. Put simply, Ohio State could not have chosen a better year to lose a home game, not in the past and realistically not in the future. Virginia Tech, Georgia, and USC all lost home games plus a road game. It was the most remarkable year at the top, in terms of chaos, we are likely to ever see. But who knows, truly, what 2008 will bring?
*LSU was not considered because folks view them as the de facto #1 team by way of their favored status over Ohio State and because they only rank below the Buckeyes because they lost their second game later, and again in triple overtime, even if AT HOME.
Some have complained quietly and not-so quietly that Ohio State does not deserve to take the field in Monday's BCS Championship Game in N'Orleans. Colin Cowherd, an interesting host on ESPN Radio, made a good point about how the system loses when teams get rewarded for playing inferior competition. So, let's get a few things out of the way.
1) OSU played a Division I-AA or subdivision school in the form of Youngstown State, inexcusable, no doubt about it, which is why this game doesn't count in the BCS.
2) The Buckeyes toughest non-conference game, in a slate that included Akron, was a mid-afternoon tilt in Seattle, a team that could not defeat Hawaii and finished well off the pace in the Pac-10. Here is the dirty little secret: few in Columbus thought 2007 was a title-aspiring year, knowing that Troy Smith and others were on the way out, and, importantly, knowing odd-years mean trips to State College and Ann Arbor. Yes, I can fall under the label of "Buckeye homer" but I maintain you must grade OSU's schedule differently in odd-numbered years.
3) Ohio State lost AT HOME to a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog and second-place team in their conference that failed to defeat a weak Iowa team earlier in the year. It was only the self-destructive qualities of the Illini against Michigan that cost the Zookers a share of the conference crown.
In almost any other year, save perhaps 1990, this resume is nowhere near good enough to play for a title. Consider that in 2002 the Bucks defeated a quality opponent in Texas Tech, the co-Pac 10 champion (Wazzu State), in addition to their full Big 10 slate, net, 13-0. Last year they beat defending national champion Texas in Austin, plus #2 Michigan to close the season, net, 12-0. Ok, 2007 clearly doesn't measure up, and the home loss reeks of 1998, so we have made that clear. On the other hand?
In ascending order of merit, with final verdict*:
HAWAII (pre-Sugar Bowl embarrassment): Yes, Michigan could've played them, and yes, they head to Gainesville next season, so what. Their second-best win of the year was by seven, at home, to a less-healthy Washington team that Ohio State beat by nineteen in the Northwest. Are you going to tell me Boise State, again at home, is a better win than Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State? Did anyone play an easier schedule? ANYONE? If you pick this undefeated team you're also buying Tulane '98 over Florida State or even Boise State '06 over Florida.
VERDICT: Hell no. The question is whether the Rainbow Warriors even deserved a Top 25 ranking.
KANSAS (pre-Orange Bowl win): When a team played a significantly weaker strength of schedule than Ohio State, well, that doesn't say much for its chances. No Oklahoma, no Texas. They did beat Colorado in Boulder, but in their ONE huge game of the season they got smacked around by Missouri, and that was closer to a home game than a roadie. It was a better loss than OSU's, but the Buckeyes wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are better than KU's three best regular season wins.
VERDICT: Beat the teams it should, lost to the one it could have beat, did not schedule an OOC game even on the level of OSU/WSH, a firm no.
WEST VIRGINIA (pre-Fiesta Bowl domination): Let's begin by saying their non-conference schedule did include a game against the SEC. Good. Yet, the disappearance of South Florida from the national picture really hurts them here, the Bulls didn't even come close to the conference crown after reaching #2 in the polls at one point. And after a severe thrashing of UCONN the week prior, a 9-13 "L" at the hands of a non-bowl Pittsburgh team, AT HOME, requires a word stronger than "choke" and I have none for the occasion. Once again, two losses, and the last one much worse than Ohio State's and Oklahoma's to Colorado.
VERDICT: No team since Oklahoma '01 soiled themselves at a more inopportune time and I don't care if Patrick White had to leave the game, they only needed ONE MORE TOUCHDOWN!!!, an easy no.
VIRGINIA TECH (pre-Orange Bowl loss): Really? You're telling me the ACC is that much rougher than the Big 10, honestly? And do teams that lose 7-45, even if on the road to the eventual #2, deserve title shots? Ohio State lost by seven, in a game influenced by a terrible non-fumble in the first quarter, and never felt threatened deep into the fourth in any of their other games. Furthermore, the Hokies choked at home against Matt Ryan and the Golden Eagles, or they would have likely earned a rematch against LSU.
VERDICT: No, but credit to playing LSU at Tiger Stadium, yet you need to do better than a thirty-eight point loss, and while this season you could lose at home, to do so AND get blown out of the road, no, irrespective of the computers.
OKLAHOMA (pre-Fiesta Bowl calamity): I love the two wins over Missouri, even before the Tigers shredded Arkansas, Texas wasn't terrible this year either. On the other hand, while we can paper over the loss in Lubbock due to Sam Bradford's concussion (maybe), what do we say of the debacle in Boulder? Did you see Colorado in a bowl game this season? This also wasn't an out of conference tilt, but a non-division game, played against a struggling program. Bottom line: a worse loss than OSU's to Illinois and the extra loss kills their candidacy.
VERDICT: Close, but no. Two losses, neither to a team playing in a major bowl game is just not going to get it done, 24-7 in Boulder, boys, 24-7 in Boulder.
MISSOURI (pre-Cotton Bowl triumph): I love the SEC and Big 10 OOC tilts, especially since the Big 10 team DID beat Ohio State. Two losses stings but both were to OU--and they beat Kansas on neutral/unfriendly ground. I guess there is one way to answer this, if the Bucks drew the Sooners in Norman and in San Antonio, could they win either game? The odds are reasonable, but the late loss (decisively too) is the difference.
VERDICT: Very close, but no. Excellent resume, just needed a split with OU and couldn't get it.
GEORGIA (pre-Sugar Bowl walloping): I had them #1 before their bowl game and they didn't disappoint, perhaps the hottest team in America and the only one to convincingly defeat Florida. Still, South Carolina, as noted before in this space, did them no favors late in the year, and the atrocious performance in Knoxville killed their title hopes. A win over the Vols would have drawn them LSU and possibly given them another huge win. Also, despite the powerful SEC, no nice OOC win (Tempe comes next autumn), and no division title.
VERDICT: Toss-up, would they beat OSU? Yes. Does that erase the stigma of a 0-35 deficit to Tennessee and a home loss to a conference foe that collapsed? Georgia Tech fell away too, give me the Bucks, no for the Dawgs.
USC (pre-Rose Bowl smashing): Let's make one thing clear, if they beat Stanford, no one has a problem with their title game presence, only question is whether OSU or LSU plays them. The loss to Oregon in Eugene to a healthy Dennis Dixon, once a Heisman frontrunner, is better than any of the other losses in consideration. Although Cal disappeared, the Pac-10 still had a good year, and the Trojans went 5-1 on the road to include the always rowdy Sun Devil Stadium. Notre Dame didn't help them, though. You have to love Coach Pete Carroll's fearlessness (okay, maybe not in the case of Idaho--but look at 2008) and the six road games. The enormous question: does a team that would likely take Ohio State still deserve to jump them with a FORTY-POINT FAVORED HOME LOSS TO A NON-BOWL TEAM A WEEK PRIOR TO PLAYING ANOTHER NON-BOWL TEAM? In other words, Michigan may have looked ahead to Oregon whilst playing Appy State, what was Troy's excuse???
VERDICT: Stanford beat a deflated Cal, yet did nothing else the rest of the year, to include losing to an Irish team that fell AT HOME to Air Force and (gasp) Navy. I don't care if John David Booty's finger or injuries and inexperience permitted a BACK-UP QB to hit multiple fourth-down passes to end it 24-23, Cardinal--in the COLISEUM!!! I'm sorry, you are a bona fide dynasty, but the Stanford loss coupled with a tough one at Autzen doesn't give you much of an argument, even if a better one than anyone else.
Conclusions...
Hawaii, Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma clearly lose the argument, at least to my mind. Missouri, Georgia, and USC do have a case, but for reasons aforementioned it is not a particularly good one, even for the latter two schools. In fact, USC '02 had a better argument against OSU '02, due to two close road losses to two very good teams in a vicious schedule to include a good Notre Dame team, then in the present.
Everyone had holes this year, no major school went undefeated and no major school with one-loss had a better track-record than Ohio State. Are some two loss schools better? Yes, perhaps one, perhaps three, perhaps five, did ANY of them clearly earn the bid over the Bucks?
The fair-minded would say, no. Put simply, Ohio State could not have chosen a better year to lose a home game, not in the past and realistically not in the future. Virginia Tech, Georgia, and USC all lost home games plus a road game. It was the most remarkable year at the top, in terms of chaos, we are likely to ever see. But who knows, truly, what 2008 will bring?
*LSU was not considered because folks view them as the de facto #1 team by way of their favored status over Ohio State and because they only rank below the Buckeyes because they lost their second game later, and again in triple overtime, even if AT HOME.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Can LSU Lose?
In their house, just down the road from the Rouge? To a Big 10 team that last defeated an SEC school in the 1980s? Representing a conference with a stellar BCS and unblemished BCS Championship Game record since 1992?
Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.
I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?
That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?
True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.
Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...
1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.
2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.
3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?
4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.
5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).
I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.
The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.
Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.
I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?
That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?
True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.
Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...
1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.
2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.
3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?
4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.
5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).
I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.
The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Undefeated Suckeyes: Guaranteed Shot?
Oops, pardon my imitation of the college football world less than pleased at the prospect of another appearance by The Ohio State University in a BCS Championship Game. The Buckeyes, as last year, debuted at #1 in the BCS Standings, due to their strength over South Florida in the polls, which, essentially, owes to their higher preseason ranking (#11).
RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.
So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.
In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:
1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1
Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:
1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2
Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.
Again:
1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0
Aggregate: 10-2
1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1
Aggregate: 4-8
Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.
Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.
We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.
Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?
Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...
If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.
Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.
Others...
South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!
Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.
If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.
Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.
RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.
So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.
In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:
1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1
Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:
1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2
Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.
Again:
1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0
Aggregate: 10-2
1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1
Aggregate: 4-8
Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.
Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.
We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.
Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?
Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...
If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.
Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.
Others...
South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!
Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.
If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.
Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)