1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Missouri (+3)
3. Ohio State (+6)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Georgia (+2)
6. Kansas (-2)
7. Arizona State (+1)
8. Florida (+2)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Southern California (+2)
11. Texas (+4)
12. Illinois (+5)
13. Auburn (+6)
14. Tennessee (+2)
15. Oklahoma (-12)
16. Virginia (+7)
17. Boise State (+3)
18. Oregon (-16)
19. Connecticut (NR)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. Michigan (-7)
22. Boston College (NR)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Arkansas (NR)
25. Florida State (NR)
When your QB goes down... #2 Oregon and #3 Oklahoma
Tip of my hat: #22 Boston College and #23 Hawaii(!!!) for impressive road wins
After Illinois at #12, I have no real idea, winner of BSU/HAW to get validation
Musings...
LSU's offense remains questionable, but if they don't have to play Georgia they should cruise past Arkansas and Tennessee to host the Not Sugar, which, of course, they will win. SEC teams, don't you know, need not even play in the final game to be ranked #1...
My sympathies to the Oregon faithful, one play from 14-0 with a Heisman nearly in the grasp, a tipped pass in the endzone began a stretch that ultimately led to Dennis Dixon's exit from this season and as likely as not Oregon's shot at even making the Rose Bowl. If USC can defeat Arizona State and Oregon wins out, they will still play (likely) Ohio State, but without their greatest benefactor, can they win? I seem them struggling to beat UCLA.
Kansas hater? They have yet to beat a single team in the AP Poll, but they will get a stiff test next week in Kansas City. Missouri's loss to Oklahoma took yet another step down the ladder with the Sooners debacle in Lubbock last night, would beating a two-loss OU team for the Big 12 title to finish 12-1 really seem all that impressive? The one thing they have going for them is they beat Illinois, which Ohio State failed to do. If they win it, they will go. If Kansas wins out, they will go. Nonetheless, a big piece of OSU's puzzle to reach the title game panned out with the Red Raiders win.
West Virginia may claim to have a case too, if they beat Connecticut and Pittsburgh to claim the outright Big East title, only a loss to South Florida has blemished their season. On the other hand, they don't have a signature victory, with their biggest win of the year coming at Piscataway. Will the Bucks jump them in the latest BCS poll? Hmmm...
As for Ohio State, here are some years for you: NEVER, 1981, 1963, NEVER. Answers? The last time the Bucks won both at State College and Ann Arbor in the same season; the last time OSU won two straight games in Michigan Stadium; the last time the Scarelet and Gray won FOUR straight in the series (unbeaten from 1972-75, but with a tie); the last time OSU won SIX out of SEVEN in the series. If you consider that Michigan ended 1997 with an 8-1-1 mark in the last ten meetings, they've gone only 3-7 since, two of those wins in 1999 and 2000. A vicious OSU defense plus the elements limited Michigan to a season-low in total yardage and the fourth-lowest point total in the history of the game.
Chris Wells is a bona fide Heisman candidate for next season and may have back-doored his way into the Top 5 for this season. Ohio State didn't attempt a pass in the second half, and absent a few plays, Beanie rumbled and rumbled, scoring twice, including a 62-yard back-breaker that will be seen on many August Heisman campaign videos next season. If Todd Boeckman can play better next year and a few juniors stick around, this is your preseason #2 team, behind...
The Gators, sigh. I've resigned myself to the fate of Tim Tebow winning the Heisman Trophy despite Florida's lack of a division title. Without him, quite simply, Florida would be struggling for bowl eligibility. The schedule was nasty this season, an older defense and an even more experienced #15 will bode very well for Urban Meyer next season, even more so if LSU is dealing with an expected coaching change.
Bottom line: OSU didn't get everything they needed this week, but a nice eleven-point win over Michigan plus the end of Oregon and (critically) Oklahoma might just make it a race to the finish between West Virginia (which can impress or extinguish themselves) and Tressel-led Bucks. Of all the Big 12 teams to lose today, OU was the one they needed, simply because OU is more likely, with its better athletes to beat the Big 12 North champion, especially if it's Kansas. Missouri played them well, in Norman, despite a so-so game from Heisman contender Chase Daniel.
Preview for next week unavailable due to travel, key games....
Southern California @ Arizona State: This is a game made for USC and their experience. It's very hard to win here, especially at night, but give the Trojans the edge and the inside track to Pasadena. USC 31 ASU 24
Boise State @ Hawaii: If Colt Brennan can't play, the Rainbow Warriors have no chance. I think he goes, but the reigning Fiesta Bowl champions can smell another visit, wouldn't OU be thrilled to see them again? BSU 29 HAW 23
Connecticut @ West Virginia: For the Big East title, the mystery-fluke team versus the one that always gets unnerved in these situations. A decisive win here either jumps the Bucks or gives them some breathing room. White and Slaton roll, a loss here would be inexcusable. WVA 45 CT 13
IRON BOWL: The South's greatest rivalry has lost some of its luster, namely, ALA cannot beat AUB. Nick Saban was brought here to win this game above all others, but the Tide have sleepwalked through two straight games and lost three straight overall. That can all go away with a tough win on the Plains. No, AUB is just a better team. AUB 19 ALA 12
Arkansas @ Louisiana State: Strange as it sounds, Darren McFadden can still win the Heisman Trophy, with a 150-yard and two score game against a defense recently punctured by.... Mississippi??? Ugh. ARK running game versus the Tiger defensive line, strength versus strength. Not at the Rouge, though. LSU 30 ARK 17
GAME OF THE WEEK...
Missouri @ Kansas: Two enter, one will leave with the division crown, which for the first time since 2001 actually means something, perhaps more so with OU reeling. Two high-scoring offenses with highly-rated quarterbacks. It is safe to say these two schools will never play a bigger game than this one. I just the Tigers are a little better than the Jayhawks, who foolishly scheduled this game away from Lawrence. The last undefeated Big Six conference school goes down, and hard. Chase Daniel books a ticket to New York City. MIZZ 34 KS 20
Heisman ballot (11/18): Tebow, Daniel, Dixon, Wells, and White
Projected BCS Standings (11/18):
1) LSU
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) West Virginia
5) Ohio State*
*Mainly because OU's computer ranking of #7 fell below OSU's own #6 last week, this should help the Mountaineers hold off a Buckeye surge in the polls. I expect OSU to be ranked #5 and WVA #4, it should prove very, very close though.
Showing posts with label Chase Daniel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chase Daniel. Show all posts
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Monday, November 12, 2007
Week 12 Preview: Ecstasy of Small Minds
Fans around the country, at one time or another, truly believe the national media is not on their side: obviously, these individuals are paranoid, but in the case of Ohio State they are absolutely right. Rather than NOT voting OSU #1--hell, as a decided partisan I never did--the media belittled their accomplishments (no real non-conference schedule, uh, what about Kansas, and how in the world does their computer ranking look so good? Wins over the Sooners, haven't played. Wins over Missouri, haven't played. Wins over Texas, uh, won't play. At all.) Sorry about that rant back there. The NYT article which recapped the game reeked of Eastern elitism from a certified Buckeye disparager, Mr. Pete Thamel. Rather than having the courage to offer his own opinion, i.e. Buckeyes suck, he hid behind the mirth emanating from southern quarters.
Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.
It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...
Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13
Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12
Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21
Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23
West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24
Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27
Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35
Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24
Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13
Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White
Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)
Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%
Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.
It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...
Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13
Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12
Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21
Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23
West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24
Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27
Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35
Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24
Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13
Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White
Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)
Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%
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