RT2020 Poll: Week of December 2

1. Georgia (+3)
2. Ohio State (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Southern California (+2)
5. Louisiana State (NC)
6. Virginia Tech (+1)
7. Florida (-1)
8. Illinois (+2)
9. Arizona State (+5)
10. Kansas (+1)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Missouri (-11)
13. Tennessee (NC)
14. Wisconsin (+1)
15. Arkansas (+1)
16. West Virginia (-13)
17. Michigan (+1)
18. Virginia (-2)
19. Brigham Young (-3)
20. Clemson (+3)
21. South Florida (NC)
22. Boston College (-5)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NC)
25. Penn State (NC)

In defense of the ballot...

I think I can reasonably argue that the Dawgs are the #1 team in America. First, for all of my Buckeye sympathies, this SEC school played a rougher schedule than Ohio State or even Oklahoma. Secondly, they lost a tough game to South Carolina when the OBC mattered, and boast one of the longest winning streaks in the nation. Yes, they didn't win their conference let alone their division (thanks to a loss in Knoxville), but no team, aside from USC is playing as well.

I keep OSU at #2. Mostly, I just cannot see them as the best team in the country unless they defeat an opponent in the Not Sugar. I did have them at #2 even before Missouri's embarrassing loss to the Sooners and West Virginia's, well, whatever that was in Morgantown tonight. Ohio State beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, two of them on the road, and lost only ONCE (something that matters this season) to a team perhaps destined for the Rose Bowl.

Oklahoma showed me a lot tonight, particularly in that second half after Missouri had rallied to tie late. The better athletes and the more efficient quarterback (dare we say, better?) prevailed. The loss to Texas Tech I can excuse due to Sam Bradford's concussion, the loss in Boulder I cannot. Despite their talent and reasonable schedule, two losses in conference are two losses.

USC smashed UCLA, no surprise there. Yes, the media loves them and bemoans the injured finger that derailed, well, something. A deserving Rose Bowl participant, but they didn't beat Oregon when Dennis Dixon still had two good wheels, and that loss to Stanford remains the single worst of the season.

No one loved the Bayou Bengals more than this blogger, starting from December, but I'm over them. Had they punished Tennessee today instead of lucking out on a defensive touchdown, or, more significantly, had they stopped any Arkansas runner of consequence last week, yeah, I would still sing their praises. No more. Yes, a backup quarterback, and yes thanks for denying the Vols the title of worst SEC champion in recent memory, but that does not warrant another opportunity to win it all.

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 25

1. Missouri (+1)
2. Ohio State (+1)
3. West Virginia (+1)
4. Georgia (+1)
5. Louisiana State (-4)
6. Southern California (+4)
7. Virginia Tech (+3)
8. Florida (NC)
9. Kansas (-3)
10. Illinois (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+4)
12. Auburn (+1)
13. Tennessee (-1)
14. Arizona State (-7)
15. Wisconsin (+5)
16. Arkansas (+8)
17. Boston College (+5)
18. Michigan (+3)
19. Hawaii (+4)
20. Virginia (-4)
21. South Florida (NR)
22. Brigham Young (NR)
23. Clemson (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Penn State (NR)

Sublime: #1 Missouri, #3 West Virginia, and #6 Southern California

Laid an Egg: #5 LSU, #9 Kansas, and #14 Arizona State

Unreal. That was my initial reaction to the end of LSU's title run yesterday to Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, some H-back, and practically everyone who wanted to run the ball against the once-fearsome Tigers. Almost 400 yards--on the ground. An inability to force a key turnover late in the second half or on three Hog OT drives. I had believed in the Bayou Bengals since last December, even to the point of assuming without #1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell that this crew would prove better than 11-2. Yes, I thought the offense would rate as less explosive sans two NFL first-round picks at wideout, but I didn't count on the defense. Yes, D-Mac is spectacular and maybe a Heisman threat again (more below), but no self-respecting defense should allow an improvised wishbone to gash it time after time. Yes, this same thing happened to Ohio State, also at home, but to a better team with a uniquely-skilled quarterback. Also, the Bucks coughed it up repeatedly, LSU didn't make a mistake until Matt Flynn's last pass deep in the third overtime. And still lost.

Les Miles, it is now safe to pursue the Michigan job, but what a clunker to end your meaningful LSU tenure. All of those athletes and promse, yet two-losses every season. Last year, the schedule made that understandable, this season? Not so much. No program in America had a more title-friendly slate than the Bayou Bengals and they failed to get it done, and the fact both defeats came in triple overtime shouldn't ease their pain or the criticism. Don't worry, a trip to N'Orleans is still in the offering, yet, remarkably, with only the same stakes as last year.

Congratulations to the new #1 and illest of luck against Oklahoma next week. Chase Daniel had a Heisman Trophy moment in KC, but he has to do it again or the Tigers will blow their best opportunity in decades. Kansas proved that they were not the best team in the nation, sorry computers. They beat no one and lost the only game that mattered, in the words I once presumptively addressed to WVA, goodbye to all that. Nice season, but not a worthy performance of an 11-0 team, yes, the game could've been played in Lawrence, but Daniel was simply the best player on the field, the match will prove tougher, however, next week.

Yes, crushing a ranked conference opponent at home is very impressive, but don't tell me the Mountaineers didn't run up the score! Patrick White played a phenomenal game and WVA just hammered the overrated Huskies to death. Some of those plays were all White and any BCS Championship Game opponent is going to have a difficult time with that explosive, high-octane rushing attack. If you can make White throw it, well, you should beat this team, if not, ugh. I see one Mr. Schlabach, drank the Kool-Aid in full, we'll see, sir, we'll see. Hit this team in the mouth like South Florida and see what happens. This school has never won a national championship and failed miserably in its two efforts (1988 and 1993) with undefeated seasons. UCONN was a lucky team that got smoked, if anyone thinks yesterday's result was more than that, I don't know what else to tell you. On the other hand, give Mr. Schlabach credit, unlike other sniveling, condescending anti-OSUers, he came right out and said it, point-blank: Ohio State has no chance to beat West Virginia and should save themselves the embarrassment of trying. Fair enough. Forty-one to fourteen has a loud ring.

Boise State, overrated by much of the country (pointing at self), should not appear in the next AP poll. They played two borderline tough teams and got smoked by both, last-place Washington and the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii. Look, Colt Brennan is a top quarterback and he played tremendously last night, but spare me this talk of Hawaii as a Top 15 team. You're telling me they're more deserving of a BCS bid then Georgia or Illinois, or even the loser of the Big 12 North title game? I'm just not buying it. A win next week, though, and they will certainly receive a bid.

Kudos to Pete Carroll and USC for finally showing what 99% of the football world forecast in August (but not me, hey, give me something after the LSU/UM Not Sugar prognostication) by dismantling a good ASU team in Tempe. Had he stayed healthy and played like this all year, John David Booty likely takes the Heisman Trophy. In any event, the Trojans are well-positioned to finish in the Top 5 for the sixth consecutive season, the longest stretch since Florida State earned FOURTEEN such marks from 1987-2000.

BCS Prediction:

1) Missouri
2) West Virginia
3) Ohio State

The Bucks will probably trail badly in the human polls because people tend to be impressed by shiny objects, but the computers may look kinder on their one-loss season.

Heisman ballot:

1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
2) Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
3) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

Tebow was tremendous yet again, but the ball is entirely in Daniel's court, even if he isn't quite 40-49 next week, a win over likely favored OU will make this a fascinating three-way race that may hinge on which southern player carries the SEC region. D-Mac had his best performance of the season in the biggest game, knocking the favorite out of the national title picture in the process.

Yes, but do any of them scare you?

A reporter from the Old Cranky Lady (reference: here) openly gushes about the quality and quantity of Southern California's tailback position:

"Few teams have ever collected more talent at one position. Each of the Trojans’ 10 tailbacks was a Super Prep All-American. Nine were Prep Star all-Americans. Seven were Parade all-Americans. Together, they were on 38 first-team all-American lists."

This graf, however, represents my favorite part:

"From the moment (Hershel) Dennis arrived on campus, he was behind somebody. First, it was Sultan McCullough and Justin Fargas. Then it was Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Now, as a sixth-year senior, he is fighting off Chauncey Washington and C. J. Gable."

Firstly, all credit to the young man for sticking it out in a tough environment. Admittedly, though, I was in the other room, did Lee Jenkins just compare Washington and Gable to the horses of 2004-05, a. k. a., Thunder and Lightning? Forgive me, I am not able to follow the great game of college football terribly closely from my present location, but didn't USC close the season, presumably with a very similar stable of runners, getting stuffed by UCLA and quitting on the run against M-eee-chigan?

We term this "Student Body Right"? In the days of Allen, the first White, Bell, Davis, Sam-Bam, the One Who Shall Not Be Named, and Garrett, the Trojans stared down dominant run defenses (usually in Pasadena at the onset of a new calendar year) and hammered away. True, Reggie Bush and LenDale White performed comparably just two years ago, but we've seen this current crop, and until further notice, none measure up.

Hey, it's good to have confidence...

"'We’re stacked everywhere,' the sophomore tailback Allen Bradford said. 'It doesn’t really make a difference what position you play.'"

So prove it. Win all of your road games instead of gazing off with glazed eyes as the Beavers and Bruins combine to wreck your championship dreams. Personally, I don't understand this fascination with extreme depth. Would you rather have one Darren McFadden or ten "Super Prep" All America backs? One Mike Hart or five guys buried on the depth chart that were once lauded as "best in the nation"? I think the point is made.

Why is the RBBC an issue?

"Last season, U.S.C. tried to please everybody, using one of those ill-fated running back committees. No player averaged more than 60 yards rushing a game, and the Trojans failed to crack 100 yards on the ground against Oregon State and U.C.L.A., losing both games."

Football, dear readers, for all its sophistication, remains quite simple: run the ball well and win. Now, last year's Rose Bowl (and most of OSU's 2006 Big 10 Championship season) provided a textbook case of how to win sans a superior ground attack, yet I'll have you note that neither team won the national title. (What of Florida? Did they dominate games on the ground?--ed With Tebow, yes, to some extent, plus their superior athletes on defense carried the spread offense across the Glendale finish line)

Mr. Jenkins finishes with a flourish:

"How the coaches sort out their crowded backfield this season — and who they choose as their every-down guy — could determine whether the Trojans win the national championship."

Perhaps one day folks will realize that All America in high school does not always translate at the next level. Most of these backs dominated outclassed competition--no longer. UCLA proved last year that their supposedly more laid-back bunch could roll up USC's ground attack post-Bush/White. They will run away from none of the SEC's finest in a hypothetical Not Sugar bout in N'Orleans.

The fact that Southern California informs us of their incredible depth should also make us aware of a dirty little secret: none of them truly stand out from the others. They failed to adequately bludgeon D-lines last season and need a statement game (200 yards or more rushing on a warm September night in Lincoln, maybe?) to justify all this "greatest backfield depth EVER!" hype.

Many moons ago, Florida State once boasted three or four of the top QBs in all the land, yet easily understood that only one could actually call out the signals. Rather than bragging about holding nine of the, say, twenty-five highest "rated" tailbacks in America, the Trojans should save their scholarships for more needed players.

Like perhaps an offensive line, as opposed to the one physically overwhelmed by UCLA. Just a thought.

RT2020: Why Don't You Love USC?

Predictable.

First, kudos to Mel Kiper Jr., for dissenting from the crowd (albeit wrongly).

Don't give me wrong, I have great respect for Pete Carroll and the program he has built since 2002. Their prowess in top games, including another Rose Bowl victory over Michigan last season, is undeniable. No other program in the Pac-10 measures up on any kind of a consistent basis. I think another return to Pasadena is certainly achievable for this now perennial national championship contender.

Yet, not to N'Orleans for the Big One.

My two problems with USC derive from immaturity and the all-important schedule. Here is the latter:

v. Idaho
@ Nebraska
v. Washington State
@ Washington
v. Stanford
v. Arizona
@ Notre Dame
@ Oregon
v. Oregon State
@ California
@ Arizona State
v. UCLA

Even without a Pac-10 Championship Game, quite a formidable slate, including possibly the nastiest stretch in the country from October 20 thru November 10. I'll give them Idaho, Stanford (perhaps by sixty), and Arizona, as three easy victories, all at the Coliseum.

Next group: Washington State, Washington and Arizona State

Don't laugh, although it's not the Southeastern Conference (the hardest games to win in college football are night SEC roadies, or if you're Ohio State, any SEC opponents at all, natch), both of these ballgames are under the lights. USC should win both, but a slip up at either one is certainly possible, in part because this year's group has not earned a 2005-esque aura. Arizona State brings a new coach, a victor of many big games including two national championships. Washington State should also give the Trojans a battle.

Verdict: 6-0

Next up: UCLA and Oregon State

Revenge. The Bruins stymied USC's seemingly inevitable march to Glendale in a 13-9 upset that ultimately permitted Florida to reach the Not Fiesta game. Oregon State built a lead and held on at the goaline to hang the first Pac-10 loss on Southern Cal since an OT loss in Berkeley, in early 2003. Both teams must face the Coliseum this year, however, and although one could pull it off, USC has defended their home territory since 2002.

Verdict: 8-0

Last: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, and California

Here, my friends, the road to Bourbon Street ends. All FOUR of the aforementioned DESPERATELY need to prove their worth in big games, i.e. beating a tough opponent at home. The Huskers have been searching for their identity since a 62-38 debacle in Boulder (coupled with a 37-14 embarrassment at the Rose Bowl shortly thereafter) six years ago; they need this one. The Irish, returning to glory since 1993, narrowly missed scoring the upset in 2005, but have lacked a WOW victory since their opening game upset of defending co-national champion Michigan... in 1998(!); they need this one. Oregon and California are the two second-tier programs in the Pac-10, neither has beaten USC in the last three years; they need this game almost as much as the still-recovering bastions of Lincoln and South Bend.

Brad Edwards, the BCS guru from ESPN.com argues that USC can sustain one loss and still qualify for the BCS Championship Game. Well, all right. Except that West Virginia, Michigan, Texas, to name three, have excellent schedules for running the table. Furthermore, we return to the issue of maturity.

In the clutch, with everything on the line against a mediocre team, these guys flunked miserably last season in their devastating loss to UCLA. I understand that John David Booty returns at the controls and that their defense sacks the quarterback and forces buckets of turnovers, all to the good.

I just believe that very few college football teams are good enough to survive so many night road games, particularly against sufficiently motivated opposition. They will lose at least two games and maybe three. In order of likelihood:

1) @ Oregon - USC will come fired up for the Huskers after dispatching Idaho, Notre Dame always focuses them, and Cal, as Edwards predicts, will determine the Pac-10 champ. Eugene, however, is where they could get ambushed. Don't say I didn't warn you.

2) @ California - Coach Jeff Tedford risks falling out of Top 20 national status if they don't start at least holding serve against USC.

3) @ Nebraska - They're a better team than #5.

4) Oregon State - I certainly expect USC to triumph here, but cannot ignore the second-most talented team in the conference.

5) @ Notre Dame - Memories linger from a fourth-and-long fly pattern, a Heisman-worthy assist on a quarterback sneak, and ND's inability to beat upper echelon competition. The Irish probably make it interesting, as usual in South Bend, but USC is a much stronger team.

Caveat: In 2002, the University of Miami stared at a similar schedule, at least concerning road matches at #3 and #4 of 2001's last poll, yet neither the Gators nor the Vols lived up to preseason hype, and that Hurricane crew was playing for history.

UCLA showed how to punish this team, and its hidden weakness (ground attack, post-Bush and White) will rear its ugly head in Lincoln and Eugene. Of course, the inconsistency of the Golden Bears will still afford the Trojans an opportunity to defend their conference title, which they will do in a statement game.

Summation: 10-2 (8-1) and a Rose Bowl bid.

So RT2020, who do you like?

Stay tuned...