1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Missouri (+3)
3. Ohio State (+6)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Georgia (+2)
6. Kansas (-2)
7. Arizona State (+1)
8. Florida (+2)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Southern California (+2)
11. Texas (+4)
12. Illinois (+5)
13. Auburn (+6)
14. Tennessee (+2)
15. Oklahoma (-12)
16. Virginia (+7)
17. Boise State (+3)
18. Oregon (-16)
19. Connecticut (NR)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. Michigan (-7)
22. Boston College (NR)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Arkansas (NR)
25. Florida State (NR)
When your QB goes down... #2 Oregon and #3 Oklahoma
Tip of my hat: #22 Boston College and #23 Hawaii(!!!) for impressive road wins
After Illinois at #12, I have no real idea, winner of BSU/HAW to get validation
Musings...
LSU's offense remains questionable, but if they don't have to play Georgia they should cruise past Arkansas and Tennessee to host the Not Sugar, which, of course, they will win. SEC teams, don't you know, need not even play in the final game to be ranked #1...
My sympathies to the Oregon faithful, one play from 14-0 with a Heisman nearly in the grasp, a tipped pass in the endzone began a stretch that ultimately led to Dennis Dixon's exit from this season and as likely as not Oregon's shot at even making the Rose Bowl. If USC can defeat Arizona State and Oregon wins out, they will still play (likely) Ohio State, but without their greatest benefactor, can they win? I seem them struggling to beat UCLA.
Kansas hater? They have yet to beat a single team in the AP Poll, but they will get a stiff test next week in Kansas City. Missouri's loss to Oklahoma took yet another step down the ladder with the Sooners debacle in Lubbock last night, would beating a two-loss OU team for the Big 12 title to finish 12-1 really seem all that impressive? The one thing they have going for them is they beat Illinois, which Ohio State failed to do. If they win it, they will go. If Kansas wins out, they will go. Nonetheless, a big piece of OSU's puzzle to reach the title game panned out with the Red Raiders win.
West Virginia may claim to have a case too, if they beat Connecticut and Pittsburgh to claim the outright Big East title, only a loss to South Florida has blemished their season. On the other hand, they don't have a signature victory, with their biggest win of the year coming at Piscataway. Will the Bucks jump them in the latest BCS poll? Hmmm...
As for Ohio State, here are some years for you: NEVER, 1981, 1963, NEVER. Answers? The last time the Bucks won both at State College and Ann Arbor in the same season; the last time OSU won two straight games in Michigan Stadium; the last time the Scarelet and Gray won FOUR straight in the series (unbeaten from 1972-75, but with a tie); the last time OSU won SIX out of SEVEN in the series. If you consider that Michigan ended 1997 with an 8-1-1 mark in the last ten meetings, they've gone only 3-7 since, two of those wins in 1999 and 2000. A vicious OSU defense plus the elements limited Michigan to a season-low in total yardage and the fourth-lowest point total in the history of the game.
Chris Wells is a bona fide Heisman candidate for next season and may have back-doored his way into the Top 5 for this season. Ohio State didn't attempt a pass in the second half, and absent a few plays, Beanie rumbled and rumbled, scoring twice, including a 62-yard back-breaker that will be seen on many August Heisman campaign videos next season. If Todd Boeckman can play better next year and a few juniors stick around, this is your preseason #2 team, behind...
The Gators, sigh. I've resigned myself to the fate of Tim Tebow winning the Heisman Trophy despite Florida's lack of a division title. Without him, quite simply, Florida would be struggling for bowl eligibility. The schedule was nasty this season, an older defense and an even more experienced #15 will bode very well for Urban Meyer next season, even more so if LSU is dealing with an expected coaching change.
Bottom line: OSU didn't get everything they needed this week, but a nice eleven-point win over Michigan plus the end of Oregon and (critically) Oklahoma might just make it a race to the finish between West Virginia (which can impress or extinguish themselves) and Tressel-led Bucks. Of all the Big 12 teams to lose today, OU was the one they needed, simply because OU is more likely, with its better athletes to beat the Big 12 North champion, especially if it's Kansas. Missouri played them well, in Norman, despite a so-so game from Heisman contender Chase Daniel.
Preview for next week unavailable due to travel, key games....
Southern California @ Arizona State: This is a game made for USC and their experience. It's very hard to win here, especially at night, but give the Trojans the edge and the inside track to Pasadena. USC 31 ASU 24
Boise State @ Hawaii: If Colt Brennan can't play, the Rainbow Warriors have no chance. I think he goes, but the reigning Fiesta Bowl champions can smell another visit, wouldn't OU be thrilled to see them again? BSU 29 HAW 23
Connecticut @ West Virginia: For the Big East title, the mystery-fluke team versus the one that always gets unnerved in these situations. A decisive win here either jumps the Bucks or gives them some breathing room. White and Slaton roll, a loss here would be inexcusable. WVA 45 CT 13
IRON BOWL: The South's greatest rivalry has lost some of its luster, namely, ALA cannot beat AUB. Nick Saban was brought here to win this game above all others, but the Tide have sleepwalked through two straight games and lost three straight overall. That can all go away with a tough win on the Plains. No, AUB is just a better team. AUB 19 ALA 12
Arkansas @ Louisiana State: Strange as it sounds, Darren McFadden can still win the Heisman Trophy, with a 150-yard and two score game against a defense recently punctured by.... Mississippi??? Ugh. ARK running game versus the Tiger defensive line, strength versus strength. Not at the Rouge, though. LSU 30 ARK 17
GAME OF THE WEEK...
Missouri @ Kansas: Two enter, one will leave with the division crown, which for the first time since 2001 actually means something, perhaps more so with OU reeling. Two high-scoring offenses with highly-rated quarterbacks. It is safe to say these two schools will never play a bigger game than this one. I just the Tigers are a little better than the Jayhawks, who foolishly scheduled this game away from Lawrence. The last undefeated Big Six conference school goes down, and hard. Chase Daniel books a ticket to New York City. MIZZ 34 KS 20
Heisman ballot (11/18): Tebow, Daniel, Dixon, Wells, and White
Projected BCS Standings (11/18):
1) LSU
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) West Virginia
5) Ohio State*
*Mainly because OU's computer ranking of #7 fell below OSU's own #6 last week, this should help the Mountaineers hold off a Buckeye surge in the polls. I expect OSU to be ranked #5 and WVA #4, it should prove very, very close though.
Showing posts with label Dennis Dixon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dennis Dixon. Show all posts
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Monday, November 12, 2007
Week 12 Preview: Ecstasy of Small Minds
Fans around the country, at one time or another, truly believe the national media is not on their side: obviously, these individuals are paranoid, but in the case of Ohio State they are absolutely right. Rather than NOT voting OSU #1--hell, as a decided partisan I never did--the media belittled their accomplishments (no real non-conference schedule, uh, what about Kansas, and how in the world does their computer ranking look so good? Wins over the Sooners, haven't played. Wins over Missouri, haven't played. Wins over Texas, uh, won't play. At all.) Sorry about that rant back there. The NYT article which recapped the game reeked of Eastern elitism from a certified Buckeye disparager, Mr. Pete Thamel. Rather than having the courage to offer his own opinion, i.e. Buckeyes suck, he hid behind the mirth emanating from southern quarters.
Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.
It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...
Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13
Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12
Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21
Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23
West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24
Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27
Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35
Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24
Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13
Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White
Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)
Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%
Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.
It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...
Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13
Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12
Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21
Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23
West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24
Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27
Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35
Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24
Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13
Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White
Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)
Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%
Sunday, November 4, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of November 4
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (NC)
4. Oklahoma (NC)
5. Missouri (+1)
6. Kansas (+1)
7. West Virginia (+2)
8. Arizona State (-3)
9. Michigan (+2)
10. Georgia (NC)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Florida (+3)
13. Southern California (+3)
14. Connecticut (-1)
15. Virginia Tech (+3)
16. Texas (+3)
17. Arkansas (+6)
18. Boston College (-10)
19. Alabama (-5)
20. Tennessee (4)
21. California (+1)
22. Boise State (NR)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Clemson (NR)
25. Illinois (NR)
That's the end of you: South Florida, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma State
Special Mention: Navy
Still no Hawaii...
Credit to an embattled Matt Flynn and an opportunistic (if overrated) LSU defense for keeping the Tigers national title hopes very much alive. Nick Saban nearly pulled this one out after a long punt return for a touchdown, but the Bayou Bengals roared back, convincingly, and won 41-34. Barely, just barely, LSU stays #1.
Oregon impressed, but so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't quit after an avalanche of Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon TD tosses, down 3-21, they rallied behind the splendid play of Rudy Carpenter, perhaps not 100%, and until a late fumble just after a completed deep ball (a score there would've made matters 30-35) did not go away. The better team won, as the Ducks snapped out of a two-quarter funk through hard running by All America candidate Jonathan Stewart. Of chief concern for the Ducks: the injury to their star QB. Fortunately, Oregon now has their three toughest Pac-10 tests behind them, finishing 2-1. The comparisons to LSU will go on for some time, and, yes, many people are secretly hoping a certain team falls in two weeks so they can take both to the Not Sugar.
Trailing 10-17 late in the third, it looked like the same-old same-old for Ohio State against Wisconsin--as in not enough points and another home defeat, which would have made four straight. Not this time. A riled up defense shut out the Badgers the rest of the way, and Beanie Wells and Co. (the O-line) went on a 28-0 run to ice the game. Wells is setting himself up nicely as a Heisman candidate for 2008, although, if Dixon can't play much the remainder of the season, and #28 bowls over you-know-who in two weeks, well... Todd Boeckman, as predicted here, did not play as well as last week: fortunately, he didn't need to. Still, if he plays like he did in the late first through the early fourth quarter in Ann Arbor the Bucks will lose. For the fourth time in five years, Jim Tressel's team starts 9-1 or better. Congrats, too, on breaking Michigan's Big 10 record for consecutive victories with twenty.
Speaking of UM, they're 13-1 in the last fourteen Big 10 games, as Chad Henne gutted out the performance of his career to erase a 14-24 deficit, and prove, once again, why Sparty is Sparty. Michigan State couldn't make a clutch first down and relinquished the football, alas, everyone in the building knew what would follow. As result of fewer than 130 yards and no scores, it seems the Heisman dream is over for Mike Hart. Even if H20 carries his team to a Big 10 title, it is likely not going to prove enough to take it from a quarterback. A 10-2 finish, though, would net him the prized Doak and a seat in NYC with Dixon, Tebow, and Ryan.
If Matt Ryan had a Heisman moment last week with his awesome final strike to nip Virginia Tech, his third interception definitely gave his backers something to reconsider. The BCS computers (and pollsters) had long overrated this team, which, let us remind you, struggled with the now 1-8 Irish. Ryan put up spectacular numbers, yet the average Golden Eagle defense allowed an eye-popping 450+ yards to a Florida State offense that last accomplished those numbers in a major tilt seven years ago. Yes, I had the Seminoles, and now it appeared it was only a matter of time before the new media darling crashed and burned. Can Ryan still win the Heisman? Well, it helps if Dixon can't play, but if Tebow wins the SEC title for Florida, the BC signal-caller isn't going to beat him either. We may also look back on this game as yet another national title lost for Ohio State, pending the results of their game in Michigan Stadium and bowl opponent.
The travails of Nebraska continue. While KU's 76-39 result will look like an early season hoops score, some skepticism is warranted. Sans Sam Keller, and at home, that is an awful lot of points to give up to the Huskers, and NEB only scored eight in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just a fluke game, but Missouri has a much better defense and with Chase Daniel, still a darkhorse Heisman candidate, an offense to put up forty on the Fightin' Manginos. The question now becomes, as one of only two undefeated Big Six conference teams, is whether an undefeated Kansas can creep all the way to the top two and secure a most improbable spot in the Not Sugar.
As for the Tigers, for whatever reason they ran up the score in Boulder, perhaps to send a message to the voters: we're a Top 5 team. If they can trip up unbeaten Kansas in KC then a rematch with Oklahoma and a possible national title shot awaits. It is this blogger's feeling, though, that either OU or MIZZ/KS needs a Buckeye loss to have a serious chance, even then, the pull for Oregon and LSU may prove too strong.
BCS Musings...
Ohio State, obviously, controls its own destiny. Irrespective of whatever SOS the Pac-10 and SEC champs boast, neither can ascend to #1 on their own. Despite the big points for beating previously unbeaten Arizona State, LSU will still remain ahead of Oregon in the computers, the question is whether the humans boost the Ducks in the polls from #5 to #3 or #2. If #2, I think they overtake LSU, if not, the Bayou Bengals would hold an extraordinarily tenuous margin. The wildcard is Kansas, the Jayhawks will advance to #1 in Jeff Sagarin's rankings and possibly jump from #5 to #3 in the computers, that, coupled with a predicted ascent to #6 in the polls, would give KU (6-6-3 = 5) enough to leapfrog idle West Virginia. Oklahoma does not have the computer ranking to compete for the national championship unless they somehow can secure the #2 slot in the polls. Either Oregon or LSU would jump them from #3 due to the computer ranking? Payback for the ridiculously strong OU 2003 finish in the computers that forced a rule change because it sent a team that had lost its conference title game 7-35 to the BCS Championship.
Predicted order...
1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Oregon
4) Kansas
5) Oklahoma
Heisman talk...
The plot thickens as the most interesting Heisman race in years continues to evolve. Dennis Dixon keeps my #1 vote, yet it's going to prove hard to keep him there if he plays sparingly from here on out, with coaches hoping to save him for the Rose Bowl or the Not Sugar. Matt Ryan has the numbers, yet a home loss to unranked FSU on the heels of a lucky escape in Blacksburg with no out of conference win (thanks, ND) to show for itself has to drop him back, behind Tebow, in the conversation. Great games against South Carolina, Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game would vault Tebow, a true sophomore, to the top of the list. Unfortunately for him, though, if Tennessee doesn't lose again then the Gators, despite a 59-20 win over the Vols, will not play LSU in Atlanta. Given that one SEC player has won the award since Bo Jackson, it defies logic to presume a three-loss, non-division winning team player can do so. Things would seem to set up well for Darren McFadden, but his partner-in-crime Felix Jones continues to take away the big guy's carries, scores, and spotlight. Hypothetical: 400 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and two Michigan wins. Question: is it enough for Mike Hart to claim the trophy at the last moment? Carson Palmer did do something remarkably similar in 2002. We might ask the same question of another Big 10 tailback, should Ohio State run the table.
Heisman ballot: Dixon, Tebow, Ryan, Hart, and, yes, Chris Wells
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (NC)
4. Oklahoma (NC)
5. Missouri (+1)
6. Kansas (+1)
7. West Virginia (+2)
8. Arizona State (-3)
9. Michigan (+2)
10. Georgia (NC)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Florida (+3)
13. Southern California (+3)
14. Connecticut (-1)
15. Virginia Tech (+3)
16. Texas (+3)
17. Arkansas (+6)
18. Boston College (-10)
19. Alabama (-5)
20. Tennessee (4)
21. California (+1)
22. Boise State (NR)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Clemson (NR)
25. Illinois (NR)
That's the end of you: South Florida, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma State
Special Mention: Navy
Still no Hawaii...
Credit to an embattled Matt Flynn and an opportunistic (if overrated) LSU defense for keeping the Tigers national title hopes very much alive. Nick Saban nearly pulled this one out after a long punt return for a touchdown, but the Bayou Bengals roared back, convincingly, and won 41-34. Barely, just barely, LSU stays #1.
Oregon impressed, but so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't quit after an avalanche of Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon TD tosses, down 3-21, they rallied behind the splendid play of Rudy Carpenter, perhaps not 100%, and until a late fumble just after a completed deep ball (a score there would've made matters 30-35) did not go away. The better team won, as the Ducks snapped out of a two-quarter funk through hard running by All America candidate Jonathan Stewart. Of chief concern for the Ducks: the injury to their star QB. Fortunately, Oregon now has their three toughest Pac-10 tests behind them, finishing 2-1. The comparisons to LSU will go on for some time, and, yes, many people are secretly hoping a certain team falls in two weeks so they can take both to the Not Sugar.
Trailing 10-17 late in the third, it looked like the same-old same-old for Ohio State against Wisconsin--as in not enough points and another home defeat, which would have made four straight. Not this time. A riled up defense shut out the Badgers the rest of the way, and Beanie Wells and Co. (the O-line) went on a 28-0 run to ice the game. Wells is setting himself up nicely as a Heisman candidate for 2008, although, if Dixon can't play much the remainder of the season, and #28 bowls over you-know-who in two weeks, well... Todd Boeckman, as predicted here, did not play as well as last week: fortunately, he didn't need to. Still, if he plays like he did in the late first through the early fourth quarter in Ann Arbor the Bucks will lose. For the fourth time in five years, Jim Tressel's team starts 9-1 or better. Congrats, too, on breaking Michigan's Big 10 record for consecutive victories with twenty.
Speaking of UM, they're 13-1 in the last fourteen Big 10 games, as Chad Henne gutted out the performance of his career to erase a 14-24 deficit, and prove, once again, why Sparty is Sparty. Michigan State couldn't make a clutch first down and relinquished the football, alas, everyone in the building knew what would follow. As result of fewer than 130 yards and no scores, it seems the Heisman dream is over for Mike Hart. Even if H20 carries his team to a Big 10 title, it is likely not going to prove enough to take it from a quarterback. A 10-2 finish, though, would net him the prized Doak and a seat in NYC with Dixon, Tebow, and Ryan.
If Matt Ryan had a Heisman moment last week with his awesome final strike to nip Virginia Tech, his third interception definitely gave his backers something to reconsider. The BCS computers (and pollsters) had long overrated this team, which, let us remind you, struggled with the now 1-8 Irish. Ryan put up spectacular numbers, yet the average Golden Eagle defense allowed an eye-popping 450+ yards to a Florida State offense that last accomplished those numbers in a major tilt seven years ago. Yes, I had the Seminoles, and now it appeared it was only a matter of time before the new media darling crashed and burned. Can Ryan still win the Heisman? Well, it helps if Dixon can't play, but if Tebow wins the SEC title for Florida, the BC signal-caller isn't going to beat him either. We may also look back on this game as yet another national title lost for Ohio State, pending the results of their game in Michigan Stadium and bowl opponent.
The travails of Nebraska continue. While KU's 76-39 result will look like an early season hoops score, some skepticism is warranted. Sans Sam Keller, and at home, that is an awful lot of points to give up to the Huskers, and NEB only scored eight in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just a fluke game, but Missouri has a much better defense and with Chase Daniel, still a darkhorse Heisman candidate, an offense to put up forty on the Fightin' Manginos. The question now becomes, as one of only two undefeated Big Six conference teams, is whether an undefeated Kansas can creep all the way to the top two and secure a most improbable spot in the Not Sugar.
As for the Tigers, for whatever reason they ran up the score in Boulder, perhaps to send a message to the voters: we're a Top 5 team. If they can trip up unbeaten Kansas in KC then a rematch with Oklahoma and a possible national title shot awaits. It is this blogger's feeling, though, that either OU or MIZZ/KS needs a Buckeye loss to have a serious chance, even then, the pull for Oregon and LSU may prove too strong.
BCS Musings...
Ohio State, obviously, controls its own destiny. Irrespective of whatever SOS the Pac-10 and SEC champs boast, neither can ascend to #1 on their own. Despite the big points for beating previously unbeaten Arizona State, LSU will still remain ahead of Oregon in the computers, the question is whether the humans boost the Ducks in the polls from #5 to #3 or #2. If #2, I think they overtake LSU, if not, the Bayou Bengals would hold an extraordinarily tenuous margin. The wildcard is Kansas, the Jayhawks will advance to #1 in Jeff Sagarin's rankings and possibly jump from #5 to #3 in the computers, that, coupled with a predicted ascent to #6 in the polls, would give KU (6-6-3 = 5) enough to leapfrog idle West Virginia. Oklahoma does not have the computer ranking to compete for the national championship unless they somehow can secure the #2 slot in the polls. Either Oregon or LSU would jump them from #3 due to the computer ranking? Payback for the ridiculously strong OU 2003 finish in the computers that forced a rule change because it sent a team that had lost its conference title game 7-35 to the BCS Championship.
Predicted order...
1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Oregon
4) Kansas
5) Oklahoma
Heisman talk...
The plot thickens as the most interesting Heisman race in years continues to evolve. Dennis Dixon keeps my #1 vote, yet it's going to prove hard to keep him there if he plays sparingly from here on out, with coaches hoping to save him for the Rose Bowl or the Not Sugar. Matt Ryan has the numbers, yet a home loss to unranked FSU on the heels of a lucky escape in Blacksburg with no out of conference win (thanks, ND) to show for itself has to drop him back, behind Tebow, in the conversation. Great games against South Carolina, Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game would vault Tebow, a true sophomore, to the top of the list. Unfortunately for him, though, if Tennessee doesn't lose again then the Gators, despite a 59-20 win over the Vols, will not play LSU in Atlanta. Given that one SEC player has won the award since Bo Jackson, it defies logic to presume a three-loss, non-division winning team player can do so. Things would seem to set up well for Darren McFadden, but his partner-in-crime Felix Jones continues to take away the big guy's carries, scores, and spotlight. Hypothetical: 400 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and two Michigan wins. Question: is it enough for Mike Hart to claim the trophy at the last moment? Carson Palmer did do something remarkably similar in 2002. We might ask the same question of another Big 10 tailback, should Ohio State run the table.
Heisman ballot: Dixon, Tebow, Ryan, Hart, and, yes, Chris Wells
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Week 10 Preview: Nearing the Home Stretch
Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Yes, RT2020 has been harping on this game for the entire season, irrespective of Bucky's record, no team has given Jim Tressel's Buckeyes more trouble than U-Dub. Worse, OSU has not managed to defeat Wisconsin--at home--since, wait for it, 1996. The final score then, incidentally, read 17-14, this from one of a handful of Ohio State teams to record a +300 DELTA. On the other hand, Buckeye teams generally don't smash Penn State under the lights at Beaver Stadium, and P. J. Hill, in the same mould as Ron Dayne and Anthony Davis, may or may not go. Senator Tressel has accumulated a less-than-sterling 1-3 record against the Badgers, the lone win coming in the 2002 title season at Camp Randall. Todd Boeckman will not play that well again, yet can Wisconsin score enough? PSU throttled them a few weeks ago, still, by all means take the points. Give Ryan Petroius a clutch kick to allow the Bucks to escape. OSU 20 WIS 19
Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13
Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20
Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21
Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28
Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13
Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13
Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20
Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21
Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28
Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13
Sunday, October 28, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 28
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)
Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon
End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech
Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina
The UK Category: Kentucky
A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut
Musings...
Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.
I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.
LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.
A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.
Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.
Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.
I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?
Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?
Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.
Projected BCS Standings:
1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)
Heisman ballot:
1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it
OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL
Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA
Just for fun...
FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)
2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)
Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon
End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech
Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina
The UK Category: Kentucky
A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut
Musings...
Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.
I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.
LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.
A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.
Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.
Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.
I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?
Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?
Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.
Projected BCS Standings:
1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)
Heisman ballot:
1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it
OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL
Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA
Just for fun...
FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)
2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus
Monday, October 22, 2007
Week 9 Preview: The First One Now Will...
Later be Last? Yes, I see the times a-changin for some current conference leaders this weekend - the most important collection of games thus far. More and more dough is accumulating at the center of the table. Time to see who's for real.
Boston College @ Virginia Tech: Look, I know Ohio State's schedule is less than arduous, but the computers, sans Billingsley, must've given BC credit for defeating '93 ND instead of the '07 version. What have they done??? How are they rated ahead of LSU? I hope Mr. Edwards will let me know later today, nonetheless... the Hokies have a history of flopping in big-time home night tilts in the last few years, namely to Pittsburgh and Miami. How good is Virginia Tech? Neither of these teams has impressed me, but absent a Heisman day from Matt Ryan, the Golden Eagles will return to Chesnut Hill with a blemish. VT 24 BC 14
Ohio State @ Penn State: RT2020 has gone back and forth on this one. This Nittany Lion edition is less imposing than 2005 yet better than 2003, need I remind you which contest OSU won in Happy Valley. The OSU offense, however, significantly rated better then (2005) as opposed to now, save for perhaps at tailback. PSU has some speed on the outside, but, check the records, they haven't scored twenty points on the Bucks since 2001. In other words, they don't frighten me. What does scare me is Todd Boeckman reprising his performance from the 2H of last week. If OSU doesn't turn it over, they could win easily--their defense is playing that well and Anthony Morelli has yet to justify the #14 jersey to them. Yeah, but White Out II will end poorly nonetheless, another title shot buried beneath an abundance of sacks and critical turnovers plus one PSU big-gainer. Get ready to chortle, Mr. Maisel. PSU 27 OSU 13
California @ Arizona State: I have no idea how good the Sun Devils are and neither does anyone else, of course, I'm not sure what beating the once-formidable Bears would do for their reputation anyway. Here is what I do know: DeSean Jackson is the best player on the field, and it wasn't his fault the Tedfords fell to the Bruins last week. Night games in Tempe, however, can turn into nightmares: look no further than Nebraska, circa 1996, when they still rated as a national power. Also, for all his foibles, Denny-K wins big games. ASU 34 CAL 31 OT
USC @ Oregon: My, these battles just keep on coming. Pete Carroll has owned Mike Belloti for the better part of a decade, a supposedly tough quarrel at Autzen in 2005 quickly degenerated after recess into another walk-through for the GREATEST TEAM EVER! This time, with Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, Oregon has the better offense if not the best in the nation. After all, Michigan's defense has clamped down since their 7-32 debacle, and may run the board in the Big 10. Yet, whether with Mark Sanchez or John David Booty, this is a made-to-order game for the Trojans. A win here puts them in a position to claim another conference championship at Tempe. Can they score enough points? Will Oregon make enough mistakes? Is my #2 team the genuine article? Yeah. ORE 41 USC 28
West Virginia @ Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights aren't a particularly good team (read: the MD game), but they are nasty in Piscataway. Last year, the Schianos blew a conference title in the closing seconds over a dispirited WVA team mostly going through the motions in Morgantown. Patrick White looked very good last week against competition that defeated Auburn and looks to lead the Mountaineers back to the Sugar Bowl. WVA 30 RUT 24
Kansas @ Texas A&M: Aggie Nation believed a small sign of relief with their second half dismantling of the once-powerful Nebraska program, yet a win here could guarantee yet another year for one of the oiliest men in the coaching fraternity, Denny-F, who still doesn't understand he is where he is because of LaDainian Tomlinson. In any event, the Fightin' Mangioes boast a vicious defense and just claimed a nice road win in Boulder. Yet, are they ready for the Twelfth Man in College Station? Survey says... no. TAMU 27 KS 19
South Florida @ Connecticut: After failing to show maturity last Thursday night, the Bulls can show that they're not going to allow a conference title to slip away--yet it's another tough road games, against, that's right, the #1 team in the Big East, fresh off a controversial win over the ineptitude that is the U of L post-Petrino. UCONN is a long way to travel for the disappointed once-#2s, good thing Jim Leavitt gets to take all that speed with him up north. USF 23 UCONN 20
Florida @ Georgia: All of sudden, yep, that sound you just heard is of the irrepressible Urban Meyer busily running the accounting machine on just how he can maneuever the Gators back to the Not Sugar discussion. Having Tim Tebow, my Heisman front-runner, assists that mission. Playing UGA, a team FLA has owned for more than a decade, ditto. America's top college coach has still not lost a game to the Hard Triangle (UGA, TEN, FSU) and with more fireworks from #15 the Mighty Gators might roll to fitty again. FLA 47 UGA 21
South Carolina @ Tennessee: Will the OBC recover against the coach he's tormented over the years? Phil Fulmer got some satisfaction from last year's decisive win in Columbia, yet his team is reeling after another embarrassing conference loss--again to a huge rival. Plus, it has been nine loooong years (and counting) since Rocky Top last held the SEC crown. Fear the Vols, however, as an underdog, something the Dawgs learned all too well last year. Erik Ainge, while not all-conference worthy, is still a better bet than the 'Cocks have, and no, Mr. Meyer will not like this result. TEN 26 SoCaro 23
If you're scoring at home, or as Olbermann once had it, even if you're alone, RT2020 sees the #1 team in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East all slipping up, mostly because three of them play away from home. Despite their ghastly #14 computer ranking, Oklahoma would jump right back into the national title game picture if such a scenario came to pass.
Heisman Watch: Tebow (up), Dixon (up), Jackson (up), and Ryan (down)
Projected BCS Standings (Oct 28):
1) LSU
2) Oregon
3) Arizona State
4) Oklahoma
5) Virginia Tech
And...
8) Florida
Aaaaarrrrrgggggghhhhh... their stranglehold on the money-making NCAA sports national titles may not yet have concluded. Should you perceive my ratcheting up of Gator hype and increased Tebow for Heisman cheerleading as some pitiful and ultimately in vain reverse psychology ploy, well... why the cynicism???
Boston College @ Virginia Tech: Look, I know Ohio State's schedule is less than arduous, but the computers, sans Billingsley, must've given BC credit for defeating '93 ND instead of the '07 version. What have they done??? How are they rated ahead of LSU? I hope Mr. Edwards will let me know later today, nonetheless... the Hokies have a history of flopping in big-time home night tilts in the last few years, namely to Pittsburgh and Miami. How good is Virginia Tech? Neither of these teams has impressed me, but absent a Heisman day from Matt Ryan, the Golden Eagles will return to Chesnut Hill with a blemish. VT 24 BC 14
Ohio State @ Penn State: RT2020 has gone back and forth on this one. This Nittany Lion edition is less imposing than 2005 yet better than 2003, need I remind you which contest OSU won in Happy Valley. The OSU offense, however, significantly rated better then (2005) as opposed to now, save for perhaps at tailback. PSU has some speed on the outside, but, check the records, they haven't scored twenty points on the Bucks since 2001. In other words, they don't frighten me. What does scare me is Todd Boeckman reprising his performance from the 2H of last week. If OSU doesn't turn it over, they could win easily--their defense is playing that well and Anthony Morelli has yet to justify the #14 jersey to them. Yeah, but White Out II will end poorly nonetheless, another title shot buried beneath an abundance of sacks and critical turnovers plus one PSU big-gainer. Get ready to chortle, Mr. Maisel. PSU 27 OSU 13
California @ Arizona State: I have no idea how good the Sun Devils are and neither does anyone else, of course, I'm not sure what beating the once-formidable Bears would do for their reputation anyway. Here is what I do know: DeSean Jackson is the best player on the field, and it wasn't his fault the Tedfords fell to the Bruins last week. Night games in Tempe, however, can turn into nightmares: look no further than Nebraska, circa 1996, when they still rated as a national power. Also, for all his foibles, Denny-K wins big games. ASU 34 CAL 31 OT
USC @ Oregon: My, these battles just keep on coming. Pete Carroll has owned Mike Belloti for the better part of a decade, a supposedly tough quarrel at Autzen in 2005 quickly degenerated after recess into another walk-through for the GREATEST TEAM EVER! This time, with Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, Oregon has the better offense if not the best in the nation. After all, Michigan's defense has clamped down since their 7-32 debacle, and may run the board in the Big 10. Yet, whether with Mark Sanchez or John David Booty, this is a made-to-order game for the Trojans. A win here puts them in a position to claim another conference championship at Tempe. Can they score enough points? Will Oregon make enough mistakes? Is my #2 team the genuine article? Yeah. ORE 41 USC 28
West Virginia @ Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights aren't a particularly good team (read: the MD game), but they are nasty in Piscataway. Last year, the Schianos blew a conference title in the closing seconds over a dispirited WVA team mostly going through the motions in Morgantown. Patrick White looked very good last week against competition that defeated Auburn and looks to lead the Mountaineers back to the Sugar Bowl. WVA 30 RUT 24
Kansas @ Texas A&M: Aggie Nation believed a small sign of relief with their second half dismantling of the once-powerful Nebraska program, yet a win here could guarantee yet another year for one of the oiliest men in the coaching fraternity, Denny-F, who still doesn't understand he is where he is because of LaDainian Tomlinson. In any event, the Fightin' Mangioes boast a vicious defense and just claimed a nice road win in Boulder. Yet, are they ready for the Twelfth Man in College Station? Survey says... no. TAMU 27 KS 19
South Florida @ Connecticut: After failing to show maturity last Thursday night, the Bulls can show that they're not going to allow a conference title to slip away--yet it's another tough road games, against, that's right, the #1 team in the Big East, fresh off a controversial win over the ineptitude that is the U of L post-Petrino. UCONN is a long way to travel for the disappointed once-#2s, good thing Jim Leavitt gets to take all that speed with him up north. USF 23 UCONN 20
Florida @ Georgia: All of sudden, yep, that sound you just heard is of the irrepressible Urban Meyer busily running the accounting machine on just how he can maneuever the Gators back to the Not Sugar discussion. Having Tim Tebow, my Heisman front-runner, assists that mission. Playing UGA, a team FLA has owned for more than a decade, ditto. America's top college coach has still not lost a game to the Hard Triangle (UGA, TEN, FSU) and with more fireworks from #15 the Mighty Gators might roll to fitty again. FLA 47 UGA 21
South Carolina @ Tennessee: Will the OBC recover against the coach he's tormented over the years? Phil Fulmer got some satisfaction from last year's decisive win in Columbia, yet his team is reeling after another embarrassing conference loss--again to a huge rival. Plus, it has been nine loooong years (and counting) since Rocky Top last held the SEC crown. Fear the Vols, however, as an underdog, something the Dawgs learned all too well last year. Erik Ainge, while not all-conference worthy, is still a better bet than the 'Cocks have, and no, Mr. Meyer will not like this result. TEN 26 SoCaro 23
If you're scoring at home, or as Olbermann once had it, even if you're alone, RT2020 sees the #1 team in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East all slipping up, mostly because three of them play away from home. Despite their ghastly #14 computer ranking, Oklahoma would jump right back into the national title game picture if such a scenario came to pass.
Heisman Watch: Tebow (up), Dixon (up), Jackson (up), and Ryan (down)
Projected BCS Standings (Oct 28):
1) LSU
2) Oregon
3) Arizona State
4) Oklahoma
5) Virginia Tech
And...
8) Florida
Aaaaarrrrrgggggghhhhh... their stranglehold on the money-making NCAA sports national titles may not yet have concluded. Should you perceive my ratcheting up of Gator hype and increased Tebow for Heisman cheerleading as some pitiful and ultimately in vain reverse psychology ploy, well... why the cynicism???
Sunday, October 21, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 21
1. Louisiana State (+1)
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)
Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee
Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California
Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State
Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas
Brief commentary...
Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.
That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.
A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.
The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.
As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.
USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.
The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.
Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)
Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee
Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California
Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State
Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas
Brief commentary...
Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.
That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.
A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.
The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.
As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.
USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.
The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.
Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart
Monday, October 15, 2007
Week 8 Preview: Beat-a-bull?
South Florida @ Rutgers: Welcome to the national championship chase, USF. If the season ended today, the Bulls would play for it all. Alas, it does not, and worse for the highest-ranked team from Florida, key games are on the horizon. Thursday night is such a test... and the eyes of the football world will rest on Piscataway, NJ. #2 comes to town with a stingy defense and some opportunistic playmaking. Louisville helped deny Ohio State a national championship with a memorable loss under similar circumstances last year. RT2020 says USF is currently #1, but Ray Rice and Company will prove undefeated a bridge too far, RUT 25 USF 20 in the upset.
Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23
Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3
Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21
Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT
Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15
USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0
Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23
Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21
Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10
Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20
Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23
Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)
Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23
Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3
Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21
Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT
Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15
USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0
Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23
Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21
Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10
Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20
Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23
Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Week 5 Preview: Saddle Up, WVA
West Virginia @ South Florida: Two of the three best teams in the Big East will begin to shake out the conference Thursday night. The Bulls are a very good home team, and the Mountaineers are notorious for losing focus away from the Blue Ridge State. SF got Auburn back when that mattered, so we don't know much about either team. I like Steve Slaton and Pat White to do the job, however, perhaps in thrilling fashion. WVA 37 SF 30
California @ Oregon: Winner can begin to shadow USC and prepare for a conference title-deciding quarrel later in the season. For CAL's DeSean Jackson and ORE's Dennis Dixon this is nothing less than a statement game, either can boost their Heisman chances with a memorable performance. The Bears are a better team, yet the game is at Autzen. Worse, Dixon is better than Nate Longshore. The Ducks have had defensive issues, but I think they can pull it out. ORE 41 CAL 38
Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Bucky is still undefeated, yet almost no one is impressed with the Badgers lately. Meanwhile, new coach Mark Dantonio has guided Sparty to a perfect record after the turmoil of the John L. Smith era. Even so, are the upstarts prepared to win a road game outside of South Bend? Well, no. WIS 24 MSU 13, as U-Dub begins to earn back some props.
Auburn @ Florida: No team in the SEC over the last fifteen years has given the Gators as many fits as Auburn. Last year, the Tigers ended FLA's hopes for an undefeated season on the Plains, this time, well, payback seems the order of the day. Urban Meyer is also still a little steamed at the lackluster effort in Oxford last week, and he knows where the champs must trek in early October. FLA 31 AUB 21
California @ Oregon: Winner can begin to shadow USC and prepare for a conference title-deciding quarrel later in the season. For CAL's DeSean Jackson and ORE's Dennis Dixon this is nothing less than a statement game, either can boost their Heisman chances with a memorable performance. The Bears are a better team, yet the game is at Autzen. Worse, Dixon is better than Nate Longshore. The Ducks have had defensive issues, but I think they can pull it out. ORE 41 CAL 38
Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Bucky is still undefeated, yet almost no one is impressed with the Badgers lately. Meanwhile, new coach Mark Dantonio has guided Sparty to a perfect record after the turmoil of the John L. Smith era. Even so, are the upstarts prepared to win a road game outside of South Bend? Well, no. WIS 24 MSU 13, as U-Dub begins to earn back some props.
Auburn @ Florida: No team in the SEC over the last fifteen years has given the Gators as many fits as Auburn. Last year, the Tigers ended FLA's hopes for an undefeated season on the Plains, this time, well, payback seems the order of the day. Urban Meyer is also still a little steamed at the lackluster effort in Oxford last week, and he knows where the champs must trek in early October. FLA 31 AUB 21
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