Cliche, yes, but Michigan is at a crossroads. At some point the football program in association with the university must decide whether their team will continue down the same path since 1969 or jettison an aging, yet still very successful (at least in conference play) system led by Bo Schembechler. Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr, both former assistants, served as the face of the program from 1990-2007. During this time, Michigan dominated the Big 10 and only a six losses in seven stretch to Ohio State precluded additional BCS games (2001 and 2007) and a national title shot (2006). After 1996, Penn State ceased to concern Michigan, ditto Michigan State after Clockgate in 2001. Even an up-and-coming Illini team failed to hold their home turf against the Wolverines, and blew a Big 10 title share in the process.
Coach Carr's departure is drawing comparisons to that of John Cooper, circa 2000. Uh, no. Despite just two years removed from an 11-1 #2 final ranking, the erstwhile Buckeye chieftain had utterly lost control of his team, academics were a joke, players were fighting each other in practice, and, wonder of wonders, the program continued to lose (in 2000, embarrassingly) to SEC bowl opponents. Whilst Jim Tressel has got the better of Carr to a 6-1 tune, Michigan's image remains quite good, even with the recent trickle of dime-scale discipline problems. In short, they are in a better position, with the developing Ryan Mallet as their new leader, than Ohio State seven years ago.
Except that unlike Ohio State, UM's rejected list (both directions) has gone public. They offered Les Miles of LSU something very close but not enough, ditto with Greg Schiano of Rutgers (as to why the latter would want the Penn State position over the Michigan one, not sure I understand that), while apparently discounting Brian Kelly of Cincinnati. OSU looked seriously at Bob Stoops and Mike Belloti, yet settled on the championship game experience of Youngstown State's leader. While it is difficult to say from afar, say, an ocean removed, the UM search committee seems deadlocked on whether to find the next Lloyd Carr or break the mold.
Without question, the past few years have served as a wake-up call to the three principal football programs of the Midwest: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. ND probably still cannot believe Urban Meyer turned them down and now they're stuck with an unproven collegiate coach for the rest of his 10-year mega-contract. Obviously Michigan does not aspire to go down that route, but, in lieu of a better comparison, who is their Tressel? More to the point, is it possible for the Wolverines to hire a coach that can win the next decade against Ohio State? Of course, while the Senator's team rolls on like a well-oiled machine, 5-5 or even 6-4 is well within range. UM fans should not expect, however, a recreation of 1988-1995, an anomalous run without peer in the rivalry of The Game.
So, who should it be?
Jeff Tedford: Even the NFL has pined after this guy, irrespective of the "lost in translation" effect of his quarterbacks to the next level. Only a youthful error kept the Bears from #1 this season, then, utter calamity. They lost SIX times in their last seven games in a free-fall last seen in State College in 1999, even then LaVar, Courtney, et al. only dropped three. Putting on the UM cap (yes, as an OSU partisan in reality), the inability to displace USC for conference supremacy doesn't truly concern me, yet with their talent and alleged coaching genius, where are the BCS bowls? Yes, yes, in 2004 they got left at the altar by the teary speech given by another fair maiden, but what else?
He would break the mold and infuse the program with excitement, but would it last?
Brian Kelly: His one year in Cincy produced a tough team, yet a remarkably inconsistent one, fair enough. Unlike Tedford, not as much to go on here. For some reason he has rubbed the Next Lloyd crowd the wrong way, even though his non-Big Six conference experience could remind one of Schembechler at Miami of Ohio in the mid-1960s.
Not really breaking the mold.
Les Miles: If UM wants him, they could have him, yet they seem to want some self-flagellation from a proud man likely to win his first national championship--in the toughest conference no less. If he beats Tressel, and decisively, his price tag jumps even higher. If money and control are the issues (the latter perhaps more so), won't his demands simply grow after a projected 30-10 win over OSU? On the other hand, Ohio State hired Cooper in no small part because his Arizona State team defeated Michigan in a Rose Bowl, never fathoming they'd turn 5-4 to 2-10-1. As noted in this space, Tressel hammered a perhaps distracted Miles at an otherwise purposeless match at the Alamo Bowl in 2004. If Loquacious Les can bring two superb coordinators with him, absolutely, yet if fans questioned the Carr-DeBord strategy, is this guy that big of an improvement? Has he won a game as an underdog at LSU? The Bayou Bengals got stuffed in two tough SEC roadies last year, walloped ND, then fell twice in triple overtime, narrowing slipping past Florida and Auburn along the way in 2007. Would Michigan take some of the same athletes as LSU? Just asking...
He would break the mold, in part because the mold is fighting against him, for reasons not particularly clear at this juncture.
Chris Peterson: Last year, the "hot" coach with his Boise State team that earned the respect of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, this year, sans the trusty QB, two setbacks. His play-calling wowed a nation, yet he is but an inheritor of what Dan Hawkins built from the ground up.
Michigan would struggle to break the mold to a greater extent than this hire.
The Man to Hire...
Could UM entice the Ol' Ball Coach, as he would DO what JoePa failed to accomplish: winning eight of ten conference crowns. Spurrier would run off 7-1 after 7-1 and probably win a few Rose Bowls and another title. He could leave South Carolina, he's done it before. Few coaches would perform better against Tressel in psychological gamesmenship. With Joe Paterno likely moving on soon, Spurrier's entry would fulfill a needed niche for the conference, unless you expect the Zooker to contend for titles year in and year out.
Problems?
No way, plus OBC thinks he isn't far from catching FLA and UGA and figures that a greater feat than winning Big 10 title after Big 10 title. He also doesn't fit the lineage, even if his mentality is closer to Fielding Yost and his "Point a Minute" offense of the early 1900s.
Final Order:
1) Steve Spurrier - offer total control
2) Brian Kelly - some reservations
3) Jeff Tedford - narrowly over Miles
4) Les Miles - only if he wins championship
5) Ron English - the defensive coordinator, perhaps Lloyd's preferred choice
They wouldn't actually hire the Ball State guy, would they?
Showing posts with label Michigan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michigan. Show all posts
Friday, December 14, 2007
Monday, November 5, 2007
Week 11 Preview: Great Games in August...
Do not always equal fine match-ups in November, with that in mind, let us proceed...
Louisville @ West Virginia: The last two years, this contest has ranked among the most entertaining and dramatic of any in college football--it may well reprise that role this Thursday night, yet, will anyone bother? Surely ESPN must frown over what this game--billed as a national championship elimination match in August--has degenerated into ever since Louisville failed to protect a late lead in Lexington. The Mountaineers have mostly done their part, however, and presumed big games by Patrick White and Steve Slaton, gentlemen who well remember the debacle last year at the Papa John, will keep Morgantown's slim title shot alive. WVA 51 LOU 23
Illinois @ Ohio State: Once upon a time, the Illini won four consecutive games at Ohio Stadium, a streak not snapped until Eddie George's Buckeye record rushing total in 1995, yet, two more Ls on the banks of the O-River followed in 1999 and 2001. Illinois has won six times in Columbus since 1986. For comparison, Michigan has needed six additional years to accumulate six wins at the 'Shoe. On the other hand, the Bucks hammered the Illini 40-2 two years ago and lead 17-0 in Champaign before running out the clock to a 17-10 win. A few weeks ago, Illini looked as compelling a Big 10 title contender as either OSU or UM, then, alas, came the Iowa game. Pardon me if I'm not terribly impressed by Juice and Mendenhall's huge days at the Metrodome. Illinois does have a good defense though and may keep this one close well into the fourth quarter. Beanie Wells, though, continues to roll. OSU 24 ILL 19
Kansas @ Oklahoma State: After yet another Michigan State imitation (a massively blown lead to Texas) last week, the Cowboys and their explosive offense welcome the finest Jayhawk team in many an autumn. As mentioned yesterday, concerns abound from the lackluster KU defensive effort against hapless Nebraska, despite the "76" on their side of the ledger. West Virginia, among others, eagerly wait for this team to flop under the burden of weighty expectations--as the WVA always does this themselves, they figure others must suffer the same fate. Look for the Pokes to mope a little too long, Coach Mangino and Co. escape Stillwater, reminiscient of the 2000 Sooners. KU 31 OSU 21
Auburn @ Georgia: The Dawgs, fresh off their uninspiring effort against Troy (my, what a non-conference schedule!) host the tough Tigers between the hedges. Georgia needs another L from Tennessee, but, thanks to Moreno, have begun to think SEC title, which would calculate to Mark Richt's third in six seasons, a pace not seen in Athens since the Dooley Era. Still, I think Auburn is a mentally-tougher team and no coach in America is better than Tommy Tuberville on the road, they'll be some head-knockin' in this one, touchdowns at a premium? AUB 17 UGA 13
Michigan @ Wisconsin: Akin to WVA-LOU, many pundits saw the Big 10 race come down to this clash in Madison. Two years ago, Bucky finally got over the Wolverine hump, yet registered their only loss of 2006 in Ann Arbor. These games always seem to go the same way: Wisky tries to ram it down UM's throat, and the blue-and-yellow helmets repel every assault, the Wolverines make one or two big plays and that is that. After humilations to Penn State and Ohio State, plus a missed opportunity at Illinois, the once-solid Badgers are reeling. Does that mean... uh, no. UM 42 WIS 20
Florida @ South Carolina: The Gators last stand to defend their conference championship and Tebow's bid to reclaim his Heisman standing. The OBC just got destroyed in Fayetteville, so he'll prove no doubt relieved to see the talent of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones nowhere on the Florida roster. Two years ago, SoCaro upset Urban Meyer in his first year, last fall, only a tremendous FG block by future NFL first-rounder (no word if he gave tOSU some of his DEN signing bonus) saved a loss at the Swamp. Look for Tebow to have a big day, as the Gators just might get a rematch with LSU after all. FLA 32 SoCaro 14
USC @ California: No, the Pac-10 title will not be won in Berkeley, absent a major upset, the Oregon Ducks will take their first crown since 2001. The Trojans, destined to go down as one of the most colossally-overrated preseason teams ever (at least FSU '93 lived up to the hype), could potentially drop their third game in the conference. For once, CAL has the best player on the field in DeSean Jackson, yet Pete Carroll (who may never receive another pro offer quite like the one at the end of last season) has bludgeoned the Bears two consecutive years, three straight wins if one includes the California domination-turned-loss in Los Angeles in 2004. The Tedfords don't quite rate with the NEBs and NDs for disappointing years, but close, and it will get worse. USC 35 CAL 27
Arkansas @ Tennessee: The Vols limped out of Fayeteville last year and if they wish to prevail in the SEC East they must avenge that loss Saturday. McFadden, with another 200 yard (or more) day, could persuade some Heisman voters that he is the best player in college football even if his team is out of the SEC race. Few teams have been as up-and-down as TEN, but the "downs" of CAL, FLA, and ALA don't augur well for the Razorback ground attack. Smiles from #5 and Urban Meyer. ARK 28 TEN 24
Louisville @ West Virginia: The last two years, this contest has ranked among the most entertaining and dramatic of any in college football--it may well reprise that role this Thursday night, yet, will anyone bother? Surely ESPN must frown over what this game--billed as a national championship elimination match in August--has degenerated into ever since Louisville failed to protect a late lead in Lexington. The Mountaineers have mostly done their part, however, and presumed big games by Patrick White and Steve Slaton, gentlemen who well remember the debacle last year at the Papa John, will keep Morgantown's slim title shot alive. WVA 51 LOU 23
Illinois @ Ohio State: Once upon a time, the Illini won four consecutive games at Ohio Stadium, a streak not snapped until Eddie George's Buckeye record rushing total in 1995, yet, two more Ls on the banks of the O-River followed in 1999 and 2001. Illinois has won six times in Columbus since 1986. For comparison, Michigan has needed six additional years to accumulate six wins at the 'Shoe. On the other hand, the Bucks hammered the Illini 40-2 two years ago and lead 17-0 in Champaign before running out the clock to a 17-10 win. A few weeks ago, Illini looked as compelling a Big 10 title contender as either OSU or UM, then, alas, came the Iowa game. Pardon me if I'm not terribly impressed by Juice and Mendenhall's huge days at the Metrodome. Illinois does have a good defense though and may keep this one close well into the fourth quarter. Beanie Wells, though, continues to roll. OSU 24 ILL 19
Kansas @ Oklahoma State: After yet another Michigan State imitation (a massively blown lead to Texas) last week, the Cowboys and their explosive offense welcome the finest Jayhawk team in many an autumn. As mentioned yesterday, concerns abound from the lackluster KU defensive effort against hapless Nebraska, despite the "76" on their side of the ledger. West Virginia, among others, eagerly wait for this team to flop under the burden of weighty expectations--as the WVA always does this themselves, they figure others must suffer the same fate. Look for the Pokes to mope a little too long, Coach Mangino and Co. escape Stillwater, reminiscient of the 2000 Sooners. KU 31 OSU 21
Auburn @ Georgia: The Dawgs, fresh off their uninspiring effort against Troy (my, what a non-conference schedule!) host the tough Tigers between the hedges. Georgia needs another L from Tennessee, but, thanks to Moreno, have begun to think SEC title, which would calculate to Mark Richt's third in six seasons, a pace not seen in Athens since the Dooley Era. Still, I think Auburn is a mentally-tougher team and no coach in America is better than Tommy Tuberville on the road, they'll be some head-knockin' in this one, touchdowns at a premium? AUB 17 UGA 13
Michigan @ Wisconsin: Akin to WVA-LOU, many pundits saw the Big 10 race come down to this clash in Madison. Two years ago, Bucky finally got over the Wolverine hump, yet registered their only loss of 2006 in Ann Arbor. These games always seem to go the same way: Wisky tries to ram it down UM's throat, and the blue-and-yellow helmets repel every assault, the Wolverines make one or two big plays and that is that. After humilations to Penn State and Ohio State, plus a missed opportunity at Illinois, the once-solid Badgers are reeling. Does that mean... uh, no. UM 42 WIS 20
Florida @ South Carolina: The Gators last stand to defend their conference championship and Tebow's bid to reclaim his Heisman standing. The OBC just got destroyed in Fayetteville, so he'll prove no doubt relieved to see the talent of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones nowhere on the Florida roster. Two years ago, SoCaro upset Urban Meyer in his first year, last fall, only a tremendous FG block by future NFL first-rounder (no word if he gave tOSU some of his DEN signing bonus) saved a loss at the Swamp. Look for Tebow to have a big day, as the Gators just might get a rematch with LSU after all. FLA 32 SoCaro 14
USC @ California: No, the Pac-10 title will not be won in Berkeley, absent a major upset, the Oregon Ducks will take their first crown since 2001. The Trojans, destined to go down as one of the most colossally-overrated preseason teams ever (at least FSU '93 lived up to the hype), could potentially drop their third game in the conference. For once, CAL has the best player on the field in DeSean Jackson, yet Pete Carroll (who may never receive another pro offer quite like the one at the end of last season) has bludgeoned the Bears two consecutive years, three straight wins if one includes the California domination-turned-loss in Los Angeles in 2004. The Tedfords don't quite rate with the NEBs and NDs for disappointing years, but close, and it will get worse. USC 35 CAL 27
Arkansas @ Tennessee: The Vols limped out of Fayeteville last year and if they wish to prevail in the SEC East they must avenge that loss Saturday. McFadden, with another 200 yard (or more) day, could persuade some Heisman voters that he is the best player in college football even if his team is out of the SEC race. Few teams have been as up-and-down as TEN, but the "downs" of CAL, FLA, and ALA don't augur well for the Razorback ground attack. Smiles from #5 and Urban Meyer. ARK 28 TEN 24
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Week 10 Preview: Nearing the Home Stretch
Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Yes, RT2020 has been harping on this game for the entire season, irrespective of Bucky's record, no team has given Jim Tressel's Buckeyes more trouble than U-Dub. Worse, OSU has not managed to defeat Wisconsin--at home--since, wait for it, 1996. The final score then, incidentally, read 17-14, this from one of a handful of Ohio State teams to record a +300 DELTA. On the other hand, Buckeye teams generally don't smash Penn State under the lights at Beaver Stadium, and P. J. Hill, in the same mould as Ron Dayne and Anthony Davis, may or may not go. Senator Tressel has accumulated a less-than-sterling 1-3 record against the Badgers, the lone win coming in the 2002 title season at Camp Randall. Todd Boeckman will not play that well again, yet can Wisconsin score enough? PSU throttled them a few weeks ago, still, by all means take the points. Give Ryan Petroius a clutch kick to allow the Bucks to escape. OSU 20 WIS 19
Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13
Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20
Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21
Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28
Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13
Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13
Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20
Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21
Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28
Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13
Sunday, October 28, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 28
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)
Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon
End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech
Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina
The UK Category: Kentucky
A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut
Musings...
Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.
I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.
LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.
A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.
Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.
Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.
I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?
Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?
Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.
Projected BCS Standings:
1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)
Heisman ballot:
1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it
OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL
Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA
Just for fun...
FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)
2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)
Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon
End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech
Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina
The UK Category: Kentucky
A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut
Musings...
Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.
I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.
LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.
A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.
Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.
Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.
I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?
Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?
Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.
Projected BCS Standings:
1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)
Heisman ballot:
1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it
OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL
Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA
Just for fun...
FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)
2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus
Sunday, October 21, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 21
1. Louisiana State (+1)
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)
Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee
Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California
Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State
Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas
Brief commentary...
Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.
That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.
A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.
The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.
As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.
USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.
The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.
Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)
Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee
Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California
Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State
Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas
Brief commentary...
Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.
That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.
A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.
The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.
As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.
USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.
The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.
Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart
Monday, October 15, 2007
Undefeated Suckeyes: Guaranteed Shot?
Oops, pardon my imitation of the college football world less than pleased at the prospect of another appearance by The Ohio State University in a BCS Championship Game. The Buckeyes, as last year, debuted at #1 in the BCS Standings, due to their strength over South Florida in the polls, which, essentially, owes to their higher preseason ranking (#11).
RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.
So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.
In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:
1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1
Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:
1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2
Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.
Again:
1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0
Aggregate: 10-2
1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1
Aggregate: 4-8
Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.
Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.
We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.
Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?
Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...
If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.
Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.
Others...
South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!
Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.
If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.
Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.
RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.
So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.
In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:
1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1
Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:
1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2
Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.
Again:
1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0
Aggregate: 10-2
1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1
Aggregate: 4-8
Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.
Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.
We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.
Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?
Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...
If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.
Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.
Others...
South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!
Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.
If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.
Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.
Week 8 Preview: Beat-a-bull?
South Florida @ Rutgers: Welcome to the national championship chase, USF. If the season ended today, the Bulls would play for it all. Alas, it does not, and worse for the highest-ranked team from Florida, key games are on the horizon. Thursday night is such a test... and the eyes of the football world will rest on Piscataway, NJ. #2 comes to town with a stingy defense and some opportunistic playmaking. Louisville helped deny Ohio State a national championship with a memorable loss under similar circumstances last year. RT2020 says USF is currently #1, but Ray Rice and Company will prove undefeated a bridge too far, RUT 25 USF 20 in the upset.
Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23
Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3
Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21
Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT
Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15
USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0
Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23
Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21
Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10
Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20
Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23
Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)
Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23
Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3
Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21
Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT
Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15
USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0
Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23
Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21
Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10
Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20
Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23
Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)
Sunday, September 2, 2007
Crickets in Ann Arbor
Because Florida State still has to play Clemson tomorrow, I will hold off on my new Top 25, Heisman update, and UK review (well done, gentlemen). In the meantime, well, there's no getting around it, I have to create a rationale for the 32-34 defeat suffered by my #2 team (#5 nationally), on their home field, with four preseason-possible All Americas on offense, including my Heisman pick, to a subdivision team from the mountains of North Carolina.
No Virginia, Michigan football will not finish 12-0 this November or hold the crystal football in N'Orleans. Yes, they have lost their third consecutive game, allowing at least thirty points in each of them.
My strong Ohio State sympathies aside, yesterday's result was awful for a conference decimated in two BCS games last January, and schadenfreude is not a part of this post--especially when I have so much egg on my face as a prognosticator. Suffice to say, the Wolverines will not rank #2 in the next poll. Before digging into the particulars, a word about Mike Hart. The All America was the ONLY reason Michigan even led in the second half (for about three minutes) after his sizzling 54-yard run to paydirt. Well, from here on in, matters will read considerably darker for the blue-and-yellow helmets.
Grasping for straws, I want to reiterate that this team should still win the Big 10 title, but getting out of September looks a good deal more challenging than, say, last week.
And all praise to Appalachian State...
Speed kills. Or perhaps more importantly, it camouflages if not erases other deficits, namely strength and size. App-y State looked to have superior speed at the skill positions, which shouldn't necessarily shock us. A few years ago, when considering the merits of all-time university teams, I discounted both UM and Notre Dame (their 3-33 pasting doesn't even warrant elaboration) on account of speed. Save for their co-title 1997 season, loaded with Charles Woodson, Ian Gold, Dhani Jones, and James Hall, Michigan has not boasted fast defenses. Even last year, their incredible game one through eleven statistics resulted from a vicious run defense, not speed in the back seven. Of course, it is quite possible UM will not face another quarterback as problematic as Armanti Edwards, who may have played the best first half of any quarterback, ever (no incompletions, no turnovers, four total TDs).
While Edwards, when not crushed by Crable and Co., crashed down to earth throughout most of the second half, he still had enough scrambling ability and arm strength to drive his team in the final 1:30. Just as Troy Smith had done on the very same field in November 2005. Michigan fans would well note the similarities between the home team's possessions prior to those final drives. Nursing a one-point lead, UM drew a critical penalty on third-and-short, forcing a throw on third-and-long. Given that Hart had rumbled for around 120 yards in the second half, no small thing. Unlike 2005 v. OSU, when Lloyd Carr opted for the pooch punt, Michigan tried a field goal, only to see it blocked. Within a play, App-y State had found the M logo, and didn't look back.
Now, great (or allegedly great) teams win with stars, and clearly UM lost this game because #20 wasn't much of a factor in the mid-portion, and #86 was all but invisible. The latter of course refers to Mario Manningham, previously rated as an ICBM in some quarters, and the best WR in the country (gulp) in others. Aside from a potentially game-saving grab in the final fifteen seconds, he contributed virtually nothing of significance to the cause. For an All-America, a disastrous day.
Which brings us to Chad Henne. After an impressive opening, 0-3 took on an inconsistent form for the rest of the afternoon, awful, in terms of the forced interception in the second half. Thirty-two offensive points is normally a job well done for quarterbacks, yet not with this offense, once considered Top 5 in the nation. Henne could not ice the game late in the fourth and did not complete enough third-and-medium throws to allow UM to escape the Big House with a W.
I think most sensible people understood UM's defense would kill its chance at a national title; I just thought it would take until the Not Sugar for this to occur. Losing that many key players (ask OSU 2006) is very difficult to overcome. The secondary, however, is even more precarious then last autumn. Absent Leon Hall, UM has no defensive backs worthy of praise, except perhaps a freshman that is not yet Law or Jackson. Fortunately, save for Oregon, very few teams on their schedule are equipped to take full advantage of it. Neither Penn State, Wisconsin, nor Ohio State present a quarterback as challenging as Edwards, which means UM should defeat all of them, particularly since two of the three are in Ann Arbor. We don't even have to mention the Irish, do we?
Next week is huge for Michigan, but not as big as the Penn State game. Whether UM wins or loses will have almost no bearing on the Big 10 race, save to break a possible 7-1, 6-2 tie for the right to play USC/Texas/Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. A second loss, though, would place enormous pressure on Coach Carr and categorically eliminate a BCS slot absent a conference title. So, I'll take Michigan to stomp the Ducks (2003 revenge?) by four touchdowns, with 200+ for Heisman Hart. Of course, I'm also the fellow who predicted Michigan would beat USC and OSU in 2006, OSU in 2005, Texas in 2004, so perhaps my clairvoyance is best left to U. S. presidential elections.
No Virginia, Michigan football will not finish 12-0 this November or hold the crystal football in N'Orleans. Yes, they have lost their third consecutive game, allowing at least thirty points in each of them.
My strong Ohio State sympathies aside, yesterday's result was awful for a conference decimated in two BCS games last January, and schadenfreude is not a part of this post--especially when I have so much egg on my face as a prognosticator. Suffice to say, the Wolverines will not rank #2 in the next poll. Before digging into the particulars, a word about Mike Hart. The All America was the ONLY reason Michigan even led in the second half (for about three minutes) after his sizzling 54-yard run to paydirt. Well, from here on in, matters will read considerably darker for the blue-and-yellow helmets.
Grasping for straws, I want to reiterate that this team should still win the Big 10 title, but getting out of September looks a good deal more challenging than, say, last week.
And all praise to Appalachian State...
Speed kills. Or perhaps more importantly, it camouflages if not erases other deficits, namely strength and size. App-y State looked to have superior speed at the skill positions, which shouldn't necessarily shock us. A few years ago, when considering the merits of all-time university teams, I discounted both UM and Notre Dame (their 3-33 pasting doesn't even warrant elaboration) on account of speed. Save for their co-title 1997 season, loaded with Charles Woodson, Ian Gold, Dhani Jones, and James Hall, Michigan has not boasted fast defenses. Even last year, their incredible game one through eleven statistics resulted from a vicious run defense, not speed in the back seven. Of course, it is quite possible UM will not face another quarterback as problematic as Armanti Edwards, who may have played the best first half of any quarterback, ever (no incompletions, no turnovers, four total TDs).
While Edwards, when not crushed by Crable and Co., crashed down to earth throughout most of the second half, he still had enough scrambling ability and arm strength to drive his team in the final 1:30. Just as Troy Smith had done on the very same field in November 2005. Michigan fans would well note the similarities between the home team's possessions prior to those final drives. Nursing a one-point lead, UM drew a critical penalty on third-and-short, forcing a throw on third-and-long. Given that Hart had rumbled for around 120 yards in the second half, no small thing. Unlike 2005 v. OSU, when Lloyd Carr opted for the pooch punt, Michigan tried a field goal, only to see it blocked. Within a play, App-y State had found the M logo, and didn't look back.
Now, great (or allegedly great) teams win with stars, and clearly UM lost this game because #20 wasn't much of a factor in the mid-portion, and #86 was all but invisible. The latter of course refers to Mario Manningham, previously rated as an ICBM in some quarters, and the best WR in the country (gulp) in others. Aside from a potentially game-saving grab in the final fifteen seconds, he contributed virtually nothing of significance to the cause. For an All-America, a disastrous day.
Which brings us to Chad Henne. After an impressive opening, 0-3 took on an inconsistent form for the rest of the afternoon, awful, in terms of the forced interception in the second half. Thirty-two offensive points is normally a job well done for quarterbacks, yet not with this offense, once considered Top 5 in the nation. Henne could not ice the game late in the fourth and did not complete enough third-and-medium throws to allow UM to escape the Big House with a W.
I think most sensible people understood UM's defense would kill its chance at a national title; I just thought it would take until the Not Sugar for this to occur. Losing that many key players (ask OSU 2006) is very difficult to overcome. The secondary, however, is even more precarious then last autumn. Absent Leon Hall, UM has no defensive backs worthy of praise, except perhaps a freshman that is not yet Law or Jackson. Fortunately, save for Oregon, very few teams on their schedule are equipped to take full advantage of it. Neither Penn State, Wisconsin, nor Ohio State present a quarterback as challenging as Edwards, which means UM should defeat all of them, particularly since two of the three are in Ann Arbor. We don't even have to mention the Irish, do we?
Next week is huge for Michigan, but not as big as the Penn State game. Whether UM wins or loses will have almost no bearing on the Big 10 race, save to break a possible 7-1, 6-2 tie for the right to play USC/Texas/Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. A second loss, though, would place enormous pressure on Coach Carr and categorically eliminate a BCS slot absent a conference title. So, I'll take Michigan to stomp the Ducks (2003 revenge?) by four touchdowns, with 200+ for Heisman Hart. Of course, I'm also the fellow who predicted Michigan would beat USC and OSU in 2006, OSU in 2005, Texas in 2004, so perhaps my clairvoyance is best left to U. S. presidential elections.
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