RT2020: Why Don't You Love USC?

Predictable.

First, kudos to Mel Kiper Jr., for dissenting from the crowd (albeit wrongly).

Don't give me wrong, I have great respect for Pete Carroll and the program he has built since 2002. Their prowess in top games, including another Rose Bowl victory over Michigan last season, is undeniable. No other program in the Pac-10 measures up on any kind of a consistent basis. I think another return to Pasadena is certainly achievable for this now perennial national championship contender.

Yet, not to N'Orleans for the Big One.

My two problems with USC derive from immaturity and the all-important schedule. Here is the latter:

v. Idaho
@ Nebraska
v. Washington State
@ Washington
v. Stanford
v. Arizona
@ Notre Dame
@ Oregon
v. Oregon State
@ California
@ Arizona State
v. UCLA

Even without a Pac-10 Championship Game, quite a formidable slate, including possibly the nastiest stretch in the country from October 20 thru November 10. I'll give them Idaho, Stanford (perhaps by sixty), and Arizona, as three easy victories, all at the Coliseum.

Next group: Washington State, Washington and Arizona State

Don't laugh, although it's not the Southeastern Conference (the hardest games to win in college football are night SEC roadies, or if you're Ohio State, any SEC opponents at all, natch), both of these ballgames are under the lights. USC should win both, but a slip up at either one is certainly possible, in part because this year's group has not earned a 2005-esque aura. Arizona State brings a new coach, a victor of many big games including two national championships. Washington State should also give the Trojans a battle.

Verdict: 6-0

Next up: UCLA and Oregon State

Revenge. The Bruins stymied USC's seemingly inevitable march to Glendale in a 13-9 upset that ultimately permitted Florida to reach the Not Fiesta game. Oregon State built a lead and held on at the goaline to hang the first Pac-10 loss on Southern Cal since an OT loss in Berkeley, in early 2003. Both teams must face the Coliseum this year, however, and although one could pull it off, USC has defended their home territory since 2002.

Verdict: 8-0

Last: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, and California

Here, my friends, the road to Bourbon Street ends. All FOUR of the aforementioned DESPERATELY need to prove their worth in big games, i.e. beating a tough opponent at home. The Huskers have been searching for their identity since a 62-38 debacle in Boulder (coupled with a 37-14 embarrassment at the Rose Bowl shortly thereafter) six years ago; they need this one. The Irish, returning to glory since 1993, narrowly missed scoring the upset in 2005, but have lacked a WOW victory since their opening game upset of defending co-national champion Michigan... in 1998(!); they need this one. Oregon and California are the two second-tier programs in the Pac-10, neither has beaten USC in the last three years; they need this game almost as much as the still-recovering bastions of Lincoln and South Bend.

Brad Edwards, the BCS guru from ESPN.com argues that USC can sustain one loss and still qualify for the BCS Championship Game. Well, all right. Except that West Virginia, Michigan, Texas, to name three, have excellent schedules for running the table. Furthermore, we return to the issue of maturity.

In the clutch, with everything on the line against a mediocre team, these guys flunked miserably last season in their devastating loss to UCLA. I understand that John David Booty returns at the controls and that their defense sacks the quarterback and forces buckets of turnovers, all to the good.

I just believe that very few college football teams are good enough to survive so many night road games, particularly against sufficiently motivated opposition. They will lose at least two games and maybe three. In order of likelihood:

1) @ Oregon - USC will come fired up for the Huskers after dispatching Idaho, Notre Dame always focuses them, and Cal, as Edwards predicts, will determine the Pac-10 champ. Eugene, however, is where they could get ambushed. Don't say I didn't warn you.

2) @ California - Coach Jeff Tedford risks falling out of Top 20 national status if they don't start at least holding serve against USC.

3) @ Nebraska - They're a better team than #5.

4) Oregon State - I certainly expect USC to triumph here, but cannot ignore the second-most talented team in the conference.

5) @ Notre Dame - Memories linger from a fourth-and-long fly pattern, a Heisman-worthy assist on a quarterback sneak, and ND's inability to beat upper echelon competition. The Irish probably make it interesting, as usual in South Bend, but USC is a much stronger team.

Caveat: In 2002, the University of Miami stared at a similar schedule, at least concerning road matches at #3 and #4 of 2001's last poll, yet neither the Gators nor the Vols lived up to preseason hype, and that Hurricane crew was playing for history.

UCLA showed how to punish this team, and its hidden weakness (ground attack, post-Bush and White) will rear its ugly head in Lincoln and Eugene. Of course, the inconsistency of the Golden Bears will still afford the Trojans an opportunity to defend their conference title, which they will do in a statement game.

Summation: 10-2 (8-1) and a Rose Bowl bid.

So RT2020, who do you like?

Stay tuned...