Fans around the country, at one time or another, truly believe the national media is not on their side: obviously, these individuals are paranoid, but in the case of Ohio State they are absolutely right. Rather than NOT voting OSU #1--hell, as a decided partisan I never did--the media belittled their accomplishments (no real non-conference schedule, uh, what about Kansas, and how in the world does their computer ranking look so good? Wins over the Sooners, haven't played. Wins over Missouri, haven't played. Wins over Texas, uh, won't play. At all.) Sorry about that rant back there. The NYT article which recapped the game reeked of Eastern elitism from a certified Buckeye disparager, Mr. Pete Thamel. Rather than having the courage to offer his own opinion, i.e. Buckeyes suck, he hid behind the mirth emanating from southern quarters.
Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.
It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...
Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13
Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12
Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21
Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23
West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24
Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27
Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35
Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24
Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13
Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White
Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)
Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%
Showing posts with label Big 12 North. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big 12 North. Show all posts
Monday, November 12, 2007
Sunday, November 11, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of November 11
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Kansas (+2)
5. Missouri (NC)
6. West Virginia (+1)
7. Georgia (+3)
8. Arizona State (NC)
9. Ohio State (-6)
10. Florida (+2)
11. Virginia Tech (+4)
12. Southern California (+1)
13. Clemson (+9)
14. Michigan (-5)
15. Texas (+1)
16. Tennessee (+4)
17. Illinois (+8)
18. Mississippi State (NR)
19. Auburn (-8)
20. Boise State (+2)
21. Cincinnati (+2)
22. Virginia (NR)
23. Penn State (NR)
24. Kentucky (NR)
25. Maryland (NR)
End of the Dream: #9 Ohio State
Utter Fraud (but still better than Hawaii): Boston College
Poise and Composure: #1 LSU, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Kansas
Embarrassing losses: #14 Michigan and #19 Auburn
Rapid Risers: #13(???) Clemson, #17 Illinois, #18 Mississippi State
Heisman ballot: Dennis Dixon, Tim Tebow, Chase Daniel, and Patrick White
Top Ten for BCS Bowls: LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan (hint, hint for next week), and Virginia Tech (projected conference champions) + USC/Arizona State, Kansas, Georgia/Florida, and, aaaaaarrrrrrrggggggghhhhhh, that team from the islands.
Not Sugar: #1 LSU v. #2 Oregon
Orange: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia
Sugar: Oklahoma v. Georgia
Fiesta: Kansas v. Hawaii
Rose: Arizona State v. Michigan
I think the Rose Bowl is inclined to take a Pac-10 team as their first choice (ORE's slot) whereas the Sugar (LSU's) would feel persuaded to take an 11-1 Oklahoma team probably rated #3 in the BCS. If the Jayhawks beat Missouri, I think they are assured of a spot, losing to OU would keep them in the Top 6 of the BCS standings. The Buckeyes, despite 1997, 2003, and 2005, cannot get in with two losses, they won't even rate in the Top 12 if that happens.
Capital One (maybe?) Bowl bound: #9 Ohio State, after all, should Illinois win out, they would have the tiebreaker for #2 in the Big 10, yes, a lot was lost yesterday.
Depressed thoughts of an OSU partisan...
Illinois played almost the perfect game yesterday in Ohio Stadium, perhaps calling on the spirits of prior Illini teams that vanquished OSU in C-Bus. Zero turnovers and one penalty do a lot of wins make, even on the road, even at the alleged #1 team in all the land. Time will only tell if this was the breakout game for Juice Williams, who finally showed his prodigious potential. I cannot recall a team in memory to rush for more than 250 yards on the banks of the O-River. Yes, an eighty-yard run (plus fumble???) may have inflated their stats a bit, but the much-celebrated linebacking corps made zero plays, forced zero mistakes, and generally looked as feeble against the run as the Bucks did in Ann Arbor four years prior: gulp. I guess the positive news for the country is that the clearly-not-Top-4-conference Big 10 will receive only one BCS team, kind of humiliating, but certainly fair. Both the Pac-10 and the SEC emphatically deserve two teams, the latter possibly three but the rules don't allow it. Coach Tressel has a LOT of work to do to get his troops ready for The Game. The stench is bad, but another win in Michigan Stadium would at least lock down the Rose Bowl, very possibly to draw the same team they last played there (ASU).
Kudos to the rest of the Top 5, particularly the Jayhawks. No, I still don't think they can beat Oklahoma, but if they do, goodness, someone is going to be very unhappy among the triumvirate, probably Oregon. Moral: don't lose a home game, particularly not to a team that nosedives the rest of the season.
I had to think twice about ranking OSU above Florida, and by the way, Tim Tebow just needs one slip by Tennessee AND Georgia to capture the East and warrant a rematch against LSU. The sophomore quarterback is pretty much the ONLY reason the Mighty Gators aren't 2-6 in the SEC as opposed to a very good 5-3. Not that South Carolina has a defense or anything. If Tennessee and Georgia both win out, the Vols take the East and the Dawgs are in line to play in the Sugar Bowl.
Can we say that the national title race is down to five teams? Yes, as I don't think West Virginia can get there and the Suckeyes are certainly out of the mix too. Missouri has the toughest road, they almost certainly need a loss by Oregon and/or LSU to reach the Top 2, on the other hand, if they can defeat Kansas and OU, plus throw in Illini's (whom they beat) win over Ohio State, they can make a case. As for the Fightin' Manginos, our key precedent is 1999: that year, the voters and the computers took an unbeaten Big 6 conference champ (VT) over a more powerful one-loss team (NEB) to play Florida State, a 46-29 victory may lead one to believe they chose wrong.
In any event, if it comes down to an LSU, Oregon, and Big 12 champ argument, I will tabulate each team's CLUTCH ranking (points for road and neutral site wins against Big 6 competition and the program formally known as Notre Dame).
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Kansas (+2)
5. Missouri (NC)
6. West Virginia (+1)
7. Georgia (+3)
8. Arizona State (NC)
9. Ohio State (-6)
10. Florida (+2)
11. Virginia Tech (+4)
12. Southern California (+1)
13. Clemson (+9)
14. Michigan (-5)
15. Texas (+1)
16. Tennessee (+4)
17. Illinois (+8)
18. Mississippi State (NR)
19. Auburn (-8)
20. Boise State (+2)
21. Cincinnati (+2)
22. Virginia (NR)
23. Penn State (NR)
24. Kentucky (NR)
25. Maryland (NR)
End of the Dream: #9 Ohio State
Utter Fraud (but still better than Hawaii): Boston College
Poise and Composure: #1 LSU, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Kansas
Embarrassing losses: #14 Michigan and #19 Auburn
Rapid Risers: #13(???) Clemson, #17 Illinois, #18 Mississippi State
Heisman ballot: Dennis Dixon, Tim Tebow, Chase Daniel, and Patrick White
Top Ten for BCS Bowls: LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan (hint, hint for next week), and Virginia Tech (projected conference champions) + USC/Arizona State, Kansas, Georgia/Florida, and, aaaaaarrrrrrrggggggghhhhhh, that team from the islands.
Not Sugar: #1 LSU v. #2 Oregon
Orange: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia
Sugar: Oklahoma v. Georgia
Fiesta: Kansas v. Hawaii
Rose: Arizona State v. Michigan
I think the Rose Bowl is inclined to take a Pac-10 team as their first choice (ORE's slot) whereas the Sugar (LSU's) would feel persuaded to take an 11-1 Oklahoma team probably rated #3 in the BCS. If the Jayhawks beat Missouri, I think they are assured of a spot, losing to OU would keep them in the Top 6 of the BCS standings. The Buckeyes, despite 1997, 2003, and 2005, cannot get in with two losses, they won't even rate in the Top 12 if that happens.
Capital One (maybe?) Bowl bound: #9 Ohio State, after all, should Illinois win out, they would have the tiebreaker for #2 in the Big 10, yes, a lot was lost yesterday.
Depressed thoughts of an OSU partisan...
Illinois played almost the perfect game yesterday in Ohio Stadium, perhaps calling on the spirits of prior Illini teams that vanquished OSU in C-Bus. Zero turnovers and one penalty do a lot of wins make, even on the road, even at the alleged #1 team in all the land. Time will only tell if this was the breakout game for Juice Williams, who finally showed his prodigious potential. I cannot recall a team in memory to rush for more than 250 yards on the banks of the O-River. Yes, an eighty-yard run (plus fumble???) may have inflated their stats a bit, but the much-celebrated linebacking corps made zero plays, forced zero mistakes, and generally looked as feeble against the run as the Bucks did in Ann Arbor four years prior: gulp. I guess the positive news for the country is that the clearly-not-Top-4-conference Big 10 will receive only one BCS team, kind of humiliating, but certainly fair. Both the Pac-10 and the SEC emphatically deserve two teams, the latter possibly three but the rules don't allow it. Coach Tressel has a LOT of work to do to get his troops ready for The Game. The stench is bad, but another win in Michigan Stadium would at least lock down the Rose Bowl, very possibly to draw the same team they last played there (ASU).
Kudos to the rest of the Top 5, particularly the Jayhawks. No, I still don't think they can beat Oklahoma, but if they do, goodness, someone is going to be very unhappy among the triumvirate, probably Oregon. Moral: don't lose a home game, particularly not to a team that nosedives the rest of the season.
I had to think twice about ranking OSU above Florida, and by the way, Tim Tebow just needs one slip by Tennessee AND Georgia to capture the East and warrant a rematch against LSU. The sophomore quarterback is pretty much the ONLY reason the Mighty Gators aren't 2-6 in the SEC as opposed to a very good 5-3. Not that South Carolina has a defense or anything. If Tennessee and Georgia both win out, the Vols take the East and the Dawgs are in line to play in the Sugar Bowl.
Can we say that the national title race is down to five teams? Yes, as I don't think West Virginia can get there and the Suckeyes are certainly out of the mix too. Missouri has the toughest road, they almost certainly need a loss by Oregon and/or LSU to reach the Top 2, on the other hand, if they can defeat Kansas and OU, plus throw in Illini's (whom they beat) win over Ohio State, they can make a case. As for the Fightin' Manginos, our key precedent is 1999: that year, the voters and the computers took an unbeaten Big 6 conference champ (VT) over a more powerful one-loss team (NEB) to play Florida State, a 46-29 victory may lead one to believe they chose wrong.
In any event, if it comes down to an LSU, Oregon, and Big 12 champ argument, I will tabulate each team's CLUTCH ranking (points for road and neutral site wins against Big 6 competition and the program formally known as Notre Dame).
Sunday, November 4, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of November 4
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (NC)
4. Oklahoma (NC)
5. Missouri (+1)
6. Kansas (+1)
7. West Virginia (+2)
8. Arizona State (-3)
9. Michigan (+2)
10. Georgia (NC)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Florida (+3)
13. Southern California (+3)
14. Connecticut (-1)
15. Virginia Tech (+3)
16. Texas (+3)
17. Arkansas (+6)
18. Boston College (-10)
19. Alabama (-5)
20. Tennessee (4)
21. California (+1)
22. Boise State (NR)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Clemson (NR)
25. Illinois (NR)
That's the end of you: South Florida, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma State
Special Mention: Navy
Still no Hawaii...
Credit to an embattled Matt Flynn and an opportunistic (if overrated) LSU defense for keeping the Tigers national title hopes very much alive. Nick Saban nearly pulled this one out after a long punt return for a touchdown, but the Bayou Bengals roared back, convincingly, and won 41-34. Barely, just barely, LSU stays #1.
Oregon impressed, but so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't quit after an avalanche of Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon TD tosses, down 3-21, they rallied behind the splendid play of Rudy Carpenter, perhaps not 100%, and until a late fumble just after a completed deep ball (a score there would've made matters 30-35) did not go away. The better team won, as the Ducks snapped out of a two-quarter funk through hard running by All America candidate Jonathan Stewart. Of chief concern for the Ducks: the injury to their star QB. Fortunately, Oregon now has their three toughest Pac-10 tests behind them, finishing 2-1. The comparisons to LSU will go on for some time, and, yes, many people are secretly hoping a certain team falls in two weeks so they can take both to the Not Sugar.
Trailing 10-17 late in the third, it looked like the same-old same-old for Ohio State against Wisconsin--as in not enough points and another home defeat, which would have made four straight. Not this time. A riled up defense shut out the Badgers the rest of the way, and Beanie Wells and Co. (the O-line) went on a 28-0 run to ice the game. Wells is setting himself up nicely as a Heisman candidate for 2008, although, if Dixon can't play much the remainder of the season, and #28 bowls over you-know-who in two weeks, well... Todd Boeckman, as predicted here, did not play as well as last week: fortunately, he didn't need to. Still, if he plays like he did in the late first through the early fourth quarter in Ann Arbor the Bucks will lose. For the fourth time in five years, Jim Tressel's team starts 9-1 or better. Congrats, too, on breaking Michigan's Big 10 record for consecutive victories with twenty.
Speaking of UM, they're 13-1 in the last fourteen Big 10 games, as Chad Henne gutted out the performance of his career to erase a 14-24 deficit, and prove, once again, why Sparty is Sparty. Michigan State couldn't make a clutch first down and relinquished the football, alas, everyone in the building knew what would follow. As result of fewer than 130 yards and no scores, it seems the Heisman dream is over for Mike Hart. Even if H20 carries his team to a Big 10 title, it is likely not going to prove enough to take it from a quarterback. A 10-2 finish, though, would net him the prized Doak and a seat in NYC with Dixon, Tebow, and Ryan.
If Matt Ryan had a Heisman moment last week with his awesome final strike to nip Virginia Tech, his third interception definitely gave his backers something to reconsider. The BCS computers (and pollsters) had long overrated this team, which, let us remind you, struggled with the now 1-8 Irish. Ryan put up spectacular numbers, yet the average Golden Eagle defense allowed an eye-popping 450+ yards to a Florida State offense that last accomplished those numbers in a major tilt seven years ago. Yes, I had the Seminoles, and now it appeared it was only a matter of time before the new media darling crashed and burned. Can Ryan still win the Heisman? Well, it helps if Dixon can't play, but if Tebow wins the SEC title for Florida, the BC signal-caller isn't going to beat him either. We may also look back on this game as yet another national title lost for Ohio State, pending the results of their game in Michigan Stadium and bowl opponent.
The travails of Nebraska continue. While KU's 76-39 result will look like an early season hoops score, some skepticism is warranted. Sans Sam Keller, and at home, that is an awful lot of points to give up to the Huskers, and NEB only scored eight in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just a fluke game, but Missouri has a much better defense and with Chase Daniel, still a darkhorse Heisman candidate, an offense to put up forty on the Fightin' Manginos. The question now becomes, as one of only two undefeated Big Six conference teams, is whether an undefeated Kansas can creep all the way to the top two and secure a most improbable spot in the Not Sugar.
As for the Tigers, for whatever reason they ran up the score in Boulder, perhaps to send a message to the voters: we're a Top 5 team. If they can trip up unbeaten Kansas in KC then a rematch with Oklahoma and a possible national title shot awaits. It is this blogger's feeling, though, that either OU or MIZZ/KS needs a Buckeye loss to have a serious chance, even then, the pull for Oregon and LSU may prove too strong.
BCS Musings...
Ohio State, obviously, controls its own destiny. Irrespective of whatever SOS the Pac-10 and SEC champs boast, neither can ascend to #1 on their own. Despite the big points for beating previously unbeaten Arizona State, LSU will still remain ahead of Oregon in the computers, the question is whether the humans boost the Ducks in the polls from #5 to #3 or #2. If #2, I think they overtake LSU, if not, the Bayou Bengals would hold an extraordinarily tenuous margin. The wildcard is Kansas, the Jayhawks will advance to #1 in Jeff Sagarin's rankings and possibly jump from #5 to #3 in the computers, that, coupled with a predicted ascent to #6 in the polls, would give KU (6-6-3 = 5) enough to leapfrog idle West Virginia. Oklahoma does not have the computer ranking to compete for the national championship unless they somehow can secure the #2 slot in the polls. Either Oregon or LSU would jump them from #3 due to the computer ranking? Payback for the ridiculously strong OU 2003 finish in the computers that forced a rule change because it sent a team that had lost its conference title game 7-35 to the BCS Championship.
Predicted order...
1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Oregon
4) Kansas
5) Oklahoma
Heisman talk...
The plot thickens as the most interesting Heisman race in years continues to evolve. Dennis Dixon keeps my #1 vote, yet it's going to prove hard to keep him there if he plays sparingly from here on out, with coaches hoping to save him for the Rose Bowl or the Not Sugar. Matt Ryan has the numbers, yet a home loss to unranked FSU on the heels of a lucky escape in Blacksburg with no out of conference win (thanks, ND) to show for itself has to drop him back, behind Tebow, in the conversation. Great games against South Carolina, Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game would vault Tebow, a true sophomore, to the top of the list. Unfortunately for him, though, if Tennessee doesn't lose again then the Gators, despite a 59-20 win over the Vols, will not play LSU in Atlanta. Given that one SEC player has won the award since Bo Jackson, it defies logic to presume a three-loss, non-division winning team player can do so. Things would seem to set up well for Darren McFadden, but his partner-in-crime Felix Jones continues to take away the big guy's carries, scores, and spotlight. Hypothetical: 400 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and two Michigan wins. Question: is it enough for Mike Hart to claim the trophy at the last moment? Carson Palmer did do something remarkably similar in 2002. We might ask the same question of another Big 10 tailback, should Ohio State run the table.
Heisman ballot: Dixon, Tebow, Ryan, Hart, and, yes, Chris Wells
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (NC)
4. Oklahoma (NC)
5. Missouri (+1)
6. Kansas (+1)
7. West Virginia (+2)
8. Arizona State (-3)
9. Michigan (+2)
10. Georgia (NC)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Florida (+3)
13. Southern California (+3)
14. Connecticut (-1)
15. Virginia Tech (+3)
16. Texas (+3)
17. Arkansas (+6)
18. Boston College (-10)
19. Alabama (-5)
20. Tennessee (4)
21. California (+1)
22. Boise State (NR)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Clemson (NR)
25. Illinois (NR)
That's the end of you: South Florida, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma State
Special Mention: Navy
Still no Hawaii...
Credit to an embattled Matt Flynn and an opportunistic (if overrated) LSU defense for keeping the Tigers national title hopes very much alive. Nick Saban nearly pulled this one out after a long punt return for a touchdown, but the Bayou Bengals roared back, convincingly, and won 41-34. Barely, just barely, LSU stays #1.
Oregon impressed, but so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't quit after an avalanche of Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon TD tosses, down 3-21, they rallied behind the splendid play of Rudy Carpenter, perhaps not 100%, and until a late fumble just after a completed deep ball (a score there would've made matters 30-35) did not go away. The better team won, as the Ducks snapped out of a two-quarter funk through hard running by All America candidate Jonathan Stewart. Of chief concern for the Ducks: the injury to their star QB. Fortunately, Oregon now has their three toughest Pac-10 tests behind them, finishing 2-1. The comparisons to LSU will go on for some time, and, yes, many people are secretly hoping a certain team falls in two weeks so they can take both to the Not Sugar.
Trailing 10-17 late in the third, it looked like the same-old same-old for Ohio State against Wisconsin--as in not enough points and another home defeat, which would have made four straight. Not this time. A riled up defense shut out the Badgers the rest of the way, and Beanie Wells and Co. (the O-line) went on a 28-0 run to ice the game. Wells is setting himself up nicely as a Heisman candidate for 2008, although, if Dixon can't play much the remainder of the season, and #28 bowls over you-know-who in two weeks, well... Todd Boeckman, as predicted here, did not play as well as last week: fortunately, he didn't need to. Still, if he plays like he did in the late first through the early fourth quarter in Ann Arbor the Bucks will lose. For the fourth time in five years, Jim Tressel's team starts 9-1 or better. Congrats, too, on breaking Michigan's Big 10 record for consecutive victories with twenty.
Speaking of UM, they're 13-1 in the last fourteen Big 10 games, as Chad Henne gutted out the performance of his career to erase a 14-24 deficit, and prove, once again, why Sparty is Sparty. Michigan State couldn't make a clutch first down and relinquished the football, alas, everyone in the building knew what would follow. As result of fewer than 130 yards and no scores, it seems the Heisman dream is over for Mike Hart. Even if H20 carries his team to a Big 10 title, it is likely not going to prove enough to take it from a quarterback. A 10-2 finish, though, would net him the prized Doak and a seat in NYC with Dixon, Tebow, and Ryan.
If Matt Ryan had a Heisman moment last week with his awesome final strike to nip Virginia Tech, his third interception definitely gave his backers something to reconsider. The BCS computers (and pollsters) had long overrated this team, which, let us remind you, struggled with the now 1-8 Irish. Ryan put up spectacular numbers, yet the average Golden Eagle defense allowed an eye-popping 450+ yards to a Florida State offense that last accomplished those numbers in a major tilt seven years ago. Yes, I had the Seminoles, and now it appeared it was only a matter of time before the new media darling crashed and burned. Can Ryan still win the Heisman? Well, it helps if Dixon can't play, but if Tebow wins the SEC title for Florida, the BC signal-caller isn't going to beat him either. We may also look back on this game as yet another national title lost for Ohio State, pending the results of their game in Michigan Stadium and bowl opponent.
The travails of Nebraska continue. While KU's 76-39 result will look like an early season hoops score, some skepticism is warranted. Sans Sam Keller, and at home, that is an awful lot of points to give up to the Huskers, and NEB only scored eight in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just a fluke game, but Missouri has a much better defense and with Chase Daniel, still a darkhorse Heisman candidate, an offense to put up forty on the Fightin' Manginos. The question now becomes, as one of only two undefeated Big Six conference teams, is whether an undefeated Kansas can creep all the way to the top two and secure a most improbable spot in the Not Sugar.
As for the Tigers, for whatever reason they ran up the score in Boulder, perhaps to send a message to the voters: we're a Top 5 team. If they can trip up unbeaten Kansas in KC then a rematch with Oklahoma and a possible national title shot awaits. It is this blogger's feeling, though, that either OU or MIZZ/KS needs a Buckeye loss to have a serious chance, even then, the pull for Oregon and LSU may prove too strong.
BCS Musings...
Ohio State, obviously, controls its own destiny. Irrespective of whatever SOS the Pac-10 and SEC champs boast, neither can ascend to #1 on their own. Despite the big points for beating previously unbeaten Arizona State, LSU will still remain ahead of Oregon in the computers, the question is whether the humans boost the Ducks in the polls from #5 to #3 or #2. If #2, I think they overtake LSU, if not, the Bayou Bengals would hold an extraordinarily tenuous margin. The wildcard is Kansas, the Jayhawks will advance to #1 in Jeff Sagarin's rankings and possibly jump from #5 to #3 in the computers, that, coupled with a predicted ascent to #6 in the polls, would give KU (6-6-3 = 5) enough to leapfrog idle West Virginia. Oklahoma does not have the computer ranking to compete for the national championship unless they somehow can secure the #2 slot in the polls. Either Oregon or LSU would jump them from #3 due to the computer ranking? Payback for the ridiculously strong OU 2003 finish in the computers that forced a rule change because it sent a team that had lost its conference title game 7-35 to the BCS Championship.
Predicted order...
1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Oregon
4) Kansas
5) Oklahoma
Heisman talk...
The plot thickens as the most interesting Heisman race in years continues to evolve. Dennis Dixon keeps my #1 vote, yet it's going to prove hard to keep him there if he plays sparingly from here on out, with coaches hoping to save him for the Rose Bowl or the Not Sugar. Matt Ryan has the numbers, yet a home loss to unranked FSU on the heels of a lucky escape in Blacksburg with no out of conference win (thanks, ND) to show for itself has to drop him back, behind Tebow, in the conversation. Great games against South Carolina, Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game would vault Tebow, a true sophomore, to the top of the list. Unfortunately for him, though, if Tennessee doesn't lose again then the Gators, despite a 59-20 win over the Vols, will not play LSU in Atlanta. Given that one SEC player has won the award since Bo Jackson, it defies logic to presume a three-loss, non-division winning team player can do so. Things would seem to set up well for Darren McFadden, but his partner-in-crime Felix Jones continues to take away the big guy's carries, scores, and spotlight. Hypothetical: 400 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and two Michigan wins. Question: is it enough for Mike Hart to claim the trophy at the last moment? Carson Palmer did do something remarkably similar in 2002. We might ask the same question of another Big 10 tailback, should Ohio State run the table.
Heisman ballot: Dixon, Tebow, Ryan, Hart, and, yes, Chris Wells
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