You Can Argue Against Ohio State...

but can you truly argue for anyone else?

Some have complained quietly and not-so quietly that Ohio State does not deserve to take the field in Monday's BCS Championship Game in N'Orleans. Colin Cowherd, an interesting host on ESPN Radio, made a good point about how the system loses when teams get rewarded for playing inferior competition. So, let's get a few things out of the way.

1) OSU played a Division I-AA or subdivision school in the form of Youngstown State, inexcusable, no doubt about it, which is why this game doesn't count in the BCS.

2) The Buckeyes toughest non-conference game, in a slate that included Akron, was a mid-afternoon tilt in Seattle, a team that could not defeat Hawaii and finished well off the pace in the Pac-10. Here is the dirty little secret: few in Columbus thought 2007 was a title-aspiring year, knowing that Troy Smith and others were on the way out, and, importantly, knowing odd-years mean trips to State College and Ann Arbor. Yes, I can fall under the label of "Buckeye homer" but I maintain you must grade OSU's schedule differently in odd-numbered years.

3) Ohio State lost AT HOME to a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog and second-place team in their conference that failed to defeat a weak Iowa team earlier in the year. It was only the self-destructive qualities of the Illini against Michigan that cost the Zookers a share of the conference crown.

In almost any other year, save perhaps 1990, this resume is nowhere near good enough to play for a title. Consider that in 2002 the Bucks defeated a quality opponent in Texas Tech, the co-Pac 10 champion (Wazzu State), in addition to their full Big 10 slate, net, 13-0. Last year they beat defending national champion Texas in Austin, plus #2 Michigan to close the season, net, 12-0. Ok, 2007 clearly doesn't measure up, and the home loss reeks of 1998, so we have made that clear. On the other hand?

In ascending order of merit, with final verdict*:

HAWAII (pre-Sugar Bowl embarrassment): Yes, Michigan could've played them, and yes, they head to Gainesville next season, so what. Their second-best win of the year was by seven, at home, to a less-healthy Washington team that Ohio State beat by nineteen in the Northwest. Are you going to tell me Boise State, again at home, is a better win than Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State? Did anyone play an easier schedule? ANYONE? If you pick this undefeated team you're also buying Tulane '98 over Florida State or even Boise State '06 over Florida.

VERDICT: Hell no. The question is whether the Rainbow Warriors even deserved a Top 25 ranking.

KANSAS (pre-Orange Bowl win): When a team played a significantly weaker strength of schedule than Ohio State, well, that doesn't say much for its chances. No Oklahoma, no Texas. They did beat Colorado in Boulder, but in their ONE huge game of the season they got smacked around by Missouri, and that was closer to a home game than a roadie. It was a better loss than OSU's, but the Buckeyes wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are better than KU's three best regular season wins.

VERDICT: Beat the teams it should, lost to the one it could have beat, did not schedule an OOC game even on the level of OSU/WSH, a firm no.

WEST VIRGINIA (pre-Fiesta Bowl domination): Let's begin by saying their non-conference schedule did include a game against the SEC. Good. Yet, the disappearance of South Florida from the national picture really hurts them here, the Bulls didn't even come close to the conference crown after reaching #2 in the polls at one point. And after a severe thrashing of UCONN the week prior, a 9-13 "L" at the hands of a non-bowl Pittsburgh team, AT HOME, requires a word stronger than "choke" and I have none for the occasion. Once again, two losses, and the last one much worse than Ohio State's and Oklahoma's to Colorado.

VERDICT: No team since Oklahoma '01 soiled themselves at a more inopportune time and I don't care if Patrick White had to leave the game, they only needed ONE MORE TOUCHDOWN!!!, an easy no.

VIRGINIA TECH (pre-Orange Bowl loss): Really? You're telling me the ACC is that much rougher than the Big 10, honestly? And do teams that lose 7-45, even if on the road to the eventual #2, deserve title shots? Ohio State lost by seven, in a game influenced by a terrible non-fumble in the first quarter, and never felt threatened deep into the fourth in any of their other games. Furthermore, the Hokies choked at home against Matt Ryan and the Golden Eagles, or they would have likely earned a rematch against LSU.

VERDICT: No, but credit to playing LSU at Tiger Stadium, yet you need to do better than a thirty-eight point loss, and while this season you could lose at home, to do so AND get blown out of the road, no, irrespective of the computers.

OKLAHOMA (pre-Fiesta Bowl calamity): I love the two wins over Missouri, even before the Tigers shredded Arkansas, Texas wasn't terrible this year either. On the other hand, while we can paper over the loss in Lubbock due to Sam Bradford's concussion (maybe), what do we say of the debacle in Boulder? Did you see Colorado in a bowl game this season? This also wasn't an out of conference tilt, but a non-division game, played against a struggling program. Bottom line: a worse loss than OSU's to Illinois and the extra loss kills their candidacy.

VERDICT: Close, but no. Two losses, neither to a team playing in a major bowl game is just not going to get it done, 24-7 in Boulder, boys, 24-7 in Boulder.

MISSOURI (pre-Cotton Bowl triumph): I love the SEC and Big 10 OOC tilts, especially since the Big 10 team DID beat Ohio State. Two losses stings but both were to OU--and they beat Kansas on neutral/unfriendly ground. I guess there is one way to answer this, if the Bucks drew the Sooners in Norman and in San Antonio, could they win either game? The odds are reasonable, but the late loss (decisively too) is the difference.

VERDICT: Very close, but no. Excellent resume, just needed a split with OU and couldn't get it.

GEORGIA (pre-Sugar Bowl walloping): I had them #1 before their bowl game and they didn't disappoint, perhaps the hottest team in America and the only one to convincingly defeat Florida. Still, South Carolina, as noted before in this space, did them no favors late in the year, and the atrocious performance in Knoxville killed their title hopes. A win over the Vols would have drawn them LSU and possibly given them another huge win. Also, despite the powerful SEC, no nice OOC win (Tempe comes next autumn), and no division title.

VERDICT: Toss-up, would they beat OSU? Yes. Does that erase the stigma of a 0-35 deficit to Tennessee and a home loss to a conference foe that collapsed? Georgia Tech fell away too, give me the Bucks, no for the Dawgs.

USC (pre-Rose Bowl smashing): Let's make one thing clear, if they beat Stanford, no one has a problem with their title game presence, only question is whether OSU or LSU plays them. The loss to Oregon in Eugene to a healthy Dennis Dixon, once a Heisman frontrunner, is better than any of the other losses in consideration. Although Cal disappeared, the Pac-10 still had a good year, and the Trojans went 5-1 on the road to include the always rowdy Sun Devil Stadium. Notre Dame didn't help them, though. You have to love Coach Pete Carroll's fearlessness (okay, maybe not in the case of Idaho--but look at 2008) and the six road games. The enormous question: does a team that would likely take Ohio State still deserve to jump them with a FORTY-POINT FAVORED HOME LOSS TO A NON-BOWL TEAM A WEEK PRIOR TO PLAYING ANOTHER NON-BOWL TEAM? In other words, Michigan may have looked ahead to Oregon whilst playing Appy State, what was Troy's excuse???

VERDICT: Stanford beat a deflated Cal, yet did nothing else the rest of the year, to include losing to an Irish team that fell AT HOME to Air Force and (gasp) Navy. I don't care if John David Booty's finger or injuries and inexperience permitted a BACK-UP QB to hit multiple fourth-down passes to end it 24-23, Cardinal--in the COLISEUM!!! I'm sorry, you are a bona fide dynasty, but the Stanford loss coupled with a tough one at Autzen doesn't give you much of an argument, even if a better one than anyone else.

Conclusions...

Hawaii, Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma clearly lose the argument, at least to my mind. Missouri, Georgia, and USC do have a case, but for reasons aforementioned it is not a particularly good one, even for the latter two schools. In fact, USC '02 had a better argument against OSU '02, due to two close road losses to two very good teams in a vicious schedule to include a good Notre Dame team, then in the present.

Everyone had holes this year, no major school went undefeated and no major school with one-loss had a better track-record than Ohio State. Are some two loss schools better? Yes, perhaps one, perhaps three, perhaps five, did ANY of them clearly earn the bid over the Bucks?

The fair-minded would say, no. Put simply, Ohio State could not have chosen a better year to lose a home game, not in the past and realistically not in the future. Virginia Tech, Georgia, and USC all lost home games plus a road game. It was the most remarkable year at the top, in terms of chaos, we are likely to ever see. But who knows, truly, what 2008 will bring?

*LSU was not considered because folks view them as the de facto #1 team by way of their favored status over Ohio State and because they only rank below the Buckeyes because they lost their second game later, and again in triple overtime, even if AT HOME.

Can LSU Lose?

In their house, just down the road from the Rouge? To a Big 10 team that last defeated an SEC school in the 1980s? Representing a conference with a stellar BCS and unblemished BCS Championship Game record since 1992?

Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.

I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?

That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?

True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.

Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...

1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.

2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.

3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?

4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.

5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).

I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.

The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.

RT2020 Poll: Week of December 2

1. Georgia (+3)
2. Ohio State (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Southern California (+2)
5. Louisiana State (NC)
6. Virginia Tech (+1)
7. Florida (-1)
8. Illinois (+2)
9. Arizona State (+5)
10. Kansas (+1)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Missouri (-11)
13. Tennessee (NC)
14. Wisconsin (+1)
15. Arkansas (+1)
16. West Virginia (-13)
17. Michigan (+1)
18. Virginia (-2)
19. Brigham Young (-3)
20. Clemson (+3)
21. South Florida (NC)
22. Boston College (-5)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NC)
25. Penn State (NC)

In defense of the ballot...

I think I can reasonably argue that the Dawgs are the #1 team in America. First, for all of my Buckeye sympathies, this SEC school played a rougher schedule than Ohio State or even Oklahoma. Secondly, they lost a tough game to South Carolina when the OBC mattered, and boast one of the longest winning streaks in the nation. Yes, they didn't win their conference let alone their division (thanks to a loss in Knoxville), but no team, aside from USC is playing as well.

I keep OSU at #2. Mostly, I just cannot see them as the best team in the country unless they defeat an opponent in the Not Sugar. I did have them at #2 even before Missouri's embarrassing loss to the Sooners and West Virginia's, well, whatever that was in Morgantown tonight. Ohio State beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, two of them on the road, and lost only ONCE (something that matters this season) to a team perhaps destined for the Rose Bowl.

Oklahoma showed me a lot tonight, particularly in that second half after Missouri had rallied to tie late. The better athletes and the more efficient quarterback (dare we say, better?) prevailed. The loss to Texas Tech I can excuse due to Sam Bradford's concussion, the loss in Boulder I cannot. Despite their talent and reasonable schedule, two losses in conference are two losses.

USC smashed UCLA, no surprise there. Yes, the media loves them and bemoans the injured finger that derailed, well, something. A deserving Rose Bowl participant, but they didn't beat Oregon when Dennis Dixon still had two good wheels, and that loss to Stanford remains the single worst of the season.

No one loved the Bayou Bengals more than this blogger, starting from December, but I'm over them. Had they punished Tennessee today instead of lucking out on a defensive touchdown, or, more significantly, had they stopped any Arkansas runner of consequence last week, yeah, I would still sing their praises. No more. Yes, a backup quarterback, and yes thanks for denying the Vols the title of worst SEC champion in recent memory, but that does not warrant another opportunity to win it all.

Week 14 Preview: Prelude to a Championship

They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just one favorite to win a game to qualify for the Not Sugar just over a month from now. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for another team (MIZZ and WVA) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a seven-point home loss in early November. Here sit the Ohio State Buckeyes, 10-1 (scrap the D-1AA game, as the BCS does), waiting for these two teams.

They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just two favorites to win a game to qualify for a BCS game, three for the Rose Bowl. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for three of these four teams (MIZZ, TEN, BC, HI) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a penalty-filled home loss to Michigan which cost them the Big 10 title. Here sit the Illinois Fightin' Illini, waiting for those three teams.

VERDICT: Big 10 denied, yessir, lot of money riding on this slate of games for Mr. Delaney and the crew...

Missouri v. Oklahoma (San Antonio): The Big 12 Championship. Had the Sooners avoided the upset bug in Lubbock, this game would pit #1 v. #2 perhaps, even so, only one team was headed to N'Orleans. I liked the way the Tigers played in Norman until their self-destructive nature kicked in leading to a 31-41 loss to Sam Bradford and OU, still smarting after a dubious collapse in Boulder. Bob Stoops is the better coach, Oklahoma has the better athletes, but is Chase Daniel and, gasp, Missouri speed enough to put a perennial mediocrity on Bourbon Street? There is a chance if Missouri loses a close one the BCS will keep them above Kansas and thus in line for a possible BCS game. The North has won just TWICE in this contest since the turn of the century (2001, a upset of #2 Texas by Colorado; 2003, a smackdown for the ages of #1-by-a-country-mile Oklahoma courtesy of Darren Sproles and Kansas State) and OU has smashed through several times. The support of the college football world, what of it is not spent in Morgantown, rides with the feel-good story of those boys from Columbia. Will the Buckeyes once again play the role of villains? No, in a classic, Missouri marches on and Chase Daniel takes the Heisman Trophy from Tim Tebow. MIZZ 37 OU 31

Pittsburgh @ West Virginia: Yes, folks are often impressed by shiny objects, and it doesn't come shinier than a 66-21 whipping of UCONN to sew up a conference title. This game will determine which week WVA plays in N'Orleans, heaven knows they want zero part of LSU. Look for this one to remain undecided into the second half, it is the Backyard Brawl after all and the 2007 season might have one more epic upset in store for us. Nah, who am I kidding? The Mountaineer defense bent but didn't break last week, if they can hold the Panthers to twenty-five, this one is a blowout. More hosannas, thus, on the way. WVA 56 PIT 16

Boston College v. Virginia Tech: The ACC Championship and a rematch of a stirring comeback/collapse earlier this season in Blacksburg. At that time, Matt Ryan seemed to have his hands all over the Heisman, a pair of bad losses plus a rejeuvenation at Clemson ended the Golden Eagles title hopes but do give them a credible Orange Bowl shot. Tech is the better team with a better defense but an inferior quarterback, which means the game is once again in Ryan's hands, with a seat in NYC beckoning. Chestnut Hill gorges itself over oranges. BC 27 VT 23

LSU v. Tennessee: The SEC Championship and a thorough letdown. Not only is surging Georgia not here but neither is a one-loss (de facto unbeaten in SEC-speak) Bayou Bengal squad. Instead we have the bumbling Vols with their embattled coach taking on a distracted Tiger team that cannot feel too confident about their play as of late. Fortunately, Tennessee doesn't run the ball like it used to, you know, back when it last won the conference title (1998?!?). Years ago, Matt Mauck flummoxed a gassed #2 Tennessee, whose running back had nothing left after an awesome display in Gainesville the week prior, and cost them a title bout with Miami. Revenge of 2001? Eh, not so much. LSU (Coach Miles last game?) 30 UT 20

UCLA @ USC: The battle for the Ax. Revenge. Less than fondly remembering a horse-whipping in 2005 at the hands of Bush, White, and Co., the Baby Blues rose up and decimated Trojan hopes in 2006 to the tune of a 9-13 loss that ushered Florida into the Not Fiesta. Far from being incensed, Pete Carroll should extend some gratitude: the Bruins bounced Oregon from the Rose Bowl perch last week, now, once again, it is all on UCLA. Not close. USC 51 UCLA 21

Washington @ Hawaii: Our last unbeaten in D-1A looks to enter Fiesta Bowl deliberations with a win over a Pac-10 doormat beaten down by perhaps the nation's toughest schedule. While Illinois looks on praying not only for a Huskies upset but also that men in blazers don't think upon their Iowa performance, Colt Brennan, with, say, 7 TD and 700 yards passing, can join Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, and Ryan in the Big Apple. Does Hawaii deserve a BCS bid over Illinois? No, but that's coming from a Buckeye sympathizer. Will they get one? Yes. HI 45 WASH 36

Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 1, MIZZ win)

Daniel, McFadden, Tebow, Brennan, and Ryan

Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 2, MIZZ loss)

Tebow, McFadden, Daniel, Brennan, and Ryan

Predicted ballot: Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, Brennan, Ryan

Predicted BCS lineup:

Not Sugar: #1 Missouri v. #2 West Virginia (Big 12 and Big East teams)
Fiesta Bowl and Orange Bowl lose conference champions
Rose Bowl: Ohio State and USC
Sugar Bowl: LSU and Kansas
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State and Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Boston College and Georgia

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 18

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Missouri (+3)
3. Ohio State (+6)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Georgia (+2)
6. Kansas (-2)
7. Arizona State (+1)
8. Florida (+2)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Southern California (+2)
11. Texas (+4)
12. Illinois (+5)
13. Auburn (+6)
14. Tennessee (+2)
15. Oklahoma (-12)
16. Virginia (+7)
17. Boise State (+3)
18. Oregon (-16)
19. Connecticut (NR)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. Michigan (-7)
22. Boston College (NR)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Arkansas (NR)
25. Florida State (NR)

When your QB goes down... #2 Oregon and #3 Oklahoma

Tip of my hat: #22 Boston College and #23 Hawaii(!!!) for impressive road wins

After Illinois at #12, I have no real idea, winner of BSU/HAW to get validation

Musings...

LSU's offense remains questionable, but if they don't have to play Georgia they should cruise past Arkansas and Tennessee to host the Not Sugar, which, of course, they will win. SEC teams, don't you know, need not even play in the final game to be ranked #1...

My sympathies to the Oregon faithful, one play from 14-0 with a Heisman nearly in the grasp, a tipped pass in the endzone began a stretch that ultimately led to Dennis Dixon's exit from this season and as likely as not Oregon's shot at even making the Rose Bowl. If USC can defeat Arizona State and Oregon wins out, they will still play (likely) Ohio State, but without their greatest benefactor, can they win? I seem them struggling to beat UCLA.

Kansas hater? They have yet to beat a single team in the AP Poll, but they will get a stiff test next week in Kansas City. Missouri's loss to Oklahoma took yet another step down the ladder with the Sooners debacle in Lubbock last night, would beating a two-loss OU team for the Big 12 title to finish 12-1 really seem all that impressive? The one thing they have going for them is they beat Illinois, which Ohio State failed to do. If they win it, they will go. If Kansas wins out, they will go. Nonetheless, a big piece of OSU's puzzle to reach the title game panned out with the Red Raiders win.

West Virginia may claim to have a case too, if they beat Connecticut and Pittsburgh to claim the outright Big East title, only a loss to South Florida has blemished their season. On the other hand, they don't have a signature victory, with their biggest win of the year coming at Piscataway. Will the Bucks jump them in the latest BCS poll? Hmmm...

As for Ohio State, here are some years for you: NEVER, 1981, 1963, NEVER. Answers? The last time the Bucks won both at State College and Ann Arbor in the same season; the last time OSU won two straight games in Michigan Stadium; the last time the Scarelet and Gray won FOUR straight in the series (unbeaten from 1972-75, but with a tie); the last time OSU won SIX out of SEVEN in the series. If you consider that Michigan ended 1997 with an 8-1-1 mark in the last ten meetings, they've gone only 3-7 since, two of those wins in 1999 and 2000. A vicious OSU defense plus the elements limited Michigan to a season-low in total yardage and the fourth-lowest point total in the history of the game.

Chris Wells is a bona fide Heisman candidate for next season and may have back-doored his way into the Top 5 for this season. Ohio State didn't attempt a pass in the second half, and absent a few plays, Beanie rumbled and rumbled, scoring twice, including a 62-yard back-breaker that will be seen on many August Heisman campaign videos next season. If Todd Boeckman can play better next year and a few juniors stick around, this is your preseason #2 team, behind...

The Gators, sigh. I've resigned myself to the fate of Tim Tebow winning the Heisman Trophy despite Florida's lack of a division title. Without him, quite simply, Florida would be struggling for bowl eligibility. The schedule was nasty this season, an older defense and an even more experienced #15 will bode very well for Urban Meyer next season, even more so if LSU is dealing with an expected coaching change.

Bottom line: OSU didn't get everything they needed this week, but a nice eleven-point win over Michigan plus the end of Oregon and (critically) Oklahoma might just make it a race to the finish between West Virginia (which can impress or extinguish themselves) and Tressel-led Bucks. Of all the Big 12 teams to lose today, OU was the one they needed, simply because OU is more likely, with its better athletes to beat the Big 12 North champion, especially if it's Kansas. Missouri played them well, in Norman, despite a so-so game from Heisman contender Chase Daniel.

Preview for next week unavailable due to travel, key games....

Southern California @ Arizona State: This is a game made for USC and their experience. It's very hard to win here, especially at night, but give the Trojans the edge and the inside track to Pasadena. USC 31 ASU 24

Boise State @ Hawaii: If Colt Brennan can't play, the Rainbow Warriors have no chance. I think he goes, but the reigning Fiesta Bowl champions can smell another visit, wouldn't OU be thrilled to see them again? BSU 29 HAW 23

Connecticut @ West Virginia: For the Big East title, the mystery-fluke team versus the one that always gets unnerved in these situations. A decisive win here either jumps the Bucks or gives them some breathing room. White and Slaton roll, a loss here would be inexcusable. WVA 45 CT 13

IRON BOWL: The South's greatest rivalry has lost some of its luster, namely, ALA cannot beat AUB. Nick Saban was brought here to win this game above all others, but the Tide have sleepwalked through two straight games and lost three straight overall. That can all go away with a tough win on the Plains. No, AUB is just a better team. AUB 19 ALA 12

Arkansas @ Louisiana State: Strange as it sounds, Darren McFadden can still win the Heisman Trophy, with a 150-yard and two score game against a defense recently punctured by.... Mississippi??? Ugh. ARK running game versus the Tiger defensive line, strength versus strength. Not at the Rouge, though. LSU 30 ARK 17

GAME OF THE WEEK...

Missouri @ Kansas: Two enter, one will leave with the division crown, which for the first time since 2001 actually means something, perhaps more so with OU reeling. Two high-scoring offenses with highly-rated quarterbacks. It is safe to say these two schools will never play a bigger game than this one. I just the Tigers are a little better than the Jayhawks, who foolishly scheduled this game away from Lawrence. The last undefeated Big Six conference school goes down, and hard. Chase Daniel books a ticket to New York City. MIZZ 34 KS 20

Heisman ballot (11/18): Tebow, Daniel, Dixon, Wells, and White

Projected BCS Standings (11/18):

1) LSU
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) West Virginia
5) Ohio State*

*Mainly because OU's computer ranking of #7 fell below OSU's own #6 last week, this should help the Mountaineers hold off a Buckeye surge in the polls. I expect OSU to be ranked #5 and WVA #4, it should prove very, very close though.

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 11

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Kansas (+2)
5. Missouri (NC)
6. West Virginia (+1)
7. Georgia (+3)
8. Arizona State (NC)
9. Ohio State (-6)
10. Florida (+2)
11. Virginia Tech (+4)
12. Southern California (+1)
13. Clemson (+9)
14. Michigan (-5)
15. Texas (+1)
16. Tennessee (+4)
17. Illinois (+8)
18. Mississippi State (NR)
19. Auburn (-8)
20. Boise State (+2)
21. Cincinnati (+2)
22. Virginia (NR)
23. Penn State (NR)
24. Kentucky (NR)
25. Maryland (NR)

End of the Dream: #9 Ohio State

Utter Fraud (but still better than Hawaii): Boston College

Poise and Composure: #1 LSU, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Kansas

Embarrassing losses: #14 Michigan and #19 Auburn

Rapid Risers: #13(???) Clemson, #17 Illinois, #18 Mississippi State

Heisman ballot: Dennis Dixon, Tim Tebow, Chase Daniel, and Patrick White

Top Ten for BCS Bowls: LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan (hint, hint for next week), and Virginia Tech (projected conference champions) + USC/Arizona State, Kansas, Georgia/Florida, and, aaaaaarrrrrrrggggggghhhhhh, that team from the islands.

Not Sugar: #1 LSU v. #2 Oregon
Orange: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia
Sugar: Oklahoma v. Georgia
Fiesta: Kansas v. Hawaii
Rose: Arizona State v. Michigan

I think the Rose Bowl is inclined to take a Pac-10 team as their first choice (ORE's slot) whereas the Sugar (LSU's) would feel persuaded to take an 11-1 Oklahoma team probably rated #3 in the BCS. If the Jayhawks beat Missouri, I think they are assured of a spot, losing to OU would keep them in the Top 6 of the BCS standings. The Buckeyes, despite 1997, 2003, and 2005, cannot get in with two losses, they won't even rate in the Top 12 if that happens.

Capital One (maybe?) Bowl bound: #9 Ohio State, after all, should Illinois win out, they would have the tiebreaker for #2 in the Big 10, yes, a lot was lost yesterday.

Depressed thoughts of an OSU partisan...

Illinois played almost the perfect game yesterday in Ohio Stadium, perhaps calling on the spirits of prior Illini teams that vanquished OSU in C-Bus. Zero turnovers and one penalty do a lot of wins make, even on the road, even at the alleged #1 team in all the land. Time will only tell if this was the breakout game for Juice Williams, who finally showed his prodigious potential. I cannot recall a team in memory to rush for more than 250 yards on the banks of the O-River. Yes, an eighty-yard run (plus fumble???) may have inflated their stats a bit, but the much-celebrated linebacking corps made zero plays, forced zero mistakes, and generally looked as feeble against the run as the Bucks did in Ann Arbor four years prior: gulp. I guess the positive news for the country is that the clearly-not-Top-4-conference Big 10 will receive only one BCS team, kind of humiliating, but certainly fair. Both the Pac-10 and the SEC emphatically deserve two teams, the latter possibly three but the rules don't allow it. Coach Tressel has a LOT of work to do to get his troops ready for The Game. The stench is bad, but another win in Michigan Stadium would at least lock down the Rose Bowl, very possibly to draw the same team they last played there (ASU).

Kudos to the rest of the Top 5, particularly the Jayhawks. No, I still don't think they can beat Oklahoma, but if they do, goodness, someone is going to be very unhappy among the triumvirate, probably Oregon. Moral: don't lose a home game, particularly not to a team that nosedives the rest of the season.

I had to think twice about ranking OSU above Florida, and by the way, Tim Tebow just needs one slip by Tennessee AND Georgia to capture the East and warrant a rematch against LSU. The sophomore quarterback is pretty much the ONLY reason the Mighty Gators aren't 2-6 in the SEC as opposed to a very good 5-3. Not that South Carolina has a defense or anything. If Tennessee and Georgia both win out, the Vols take the East and the Dawgs are in line to play in the Sugar Bowl.

Can we say that the national title race is down to five teams? Yes, as I don't think West Virginia can get there and the Suckeyes are certainly out of the mix too. Missouri has the toughest road, they almost certainly need a loss by Oregon and/or LSU to reach the Top 2, on the other hand, if they can defeat Kansas and OU, plus throw in Illini's (whom they beat) win over Ohio State, they can make a case. As for the Fightin' Manginos, our key precedent is 1999: that year, the voters and the computers took an unbeaten Big 6 conference champ (VT) over a more powerful one-loss team (NEB) to play Florida State, a 46-29 victory may lead one to believe they chose wrong.

In any event, if it comes down to an LSU, Oregon, and Big 12 champ argument, I will tabulate each team's CLUTCH ranking (points for road and neutral site wins against Big 6 competition and the program formally known as Notre Dame).

Week 11 Preview: Great Games in August...

Do not always equal fine match-ups in November, with that in mind, let us proceed...

Louisville @ West Virginia: The last two years, this contest has ranked among the most entertaining and dramatic of any in college football--it may well reprise that role this Thursday night, yet, will anyone bother? Surely ESPN must frown over what this game--billed as a national championship elimination match in August--has degenerated into ever since Louisville failed to protect a late lead in Lexington. The Mountaineers have mostly done their part, however, and presumed big games by Patrick White and Steve Slaton, gentlemen who well remember the debacle last year at the Papa John, will keep Morgantown's slim title shot alive. WVA 51 LOU 23

Illinois @ Ohio State: Once upon a time, the Illini won four consecutive games at Ohio Stadium, a streak not snapped until Eddie George's Buckeye record rushing total in 1995, yet, two more Ls on the banks of the O-River followed in 1999 and 2001. Illinois has won six times in Columbus since 1986. For comparison, Michigan has needed six additional years to accumulate six wins at the 'Shoe. On the other hand, the Bucks hammered the Illini 40-2 two years ago and lead 17-0 in Champaign before running out the clock to a 17-10 win. A few weeks ago, Illini looked as compelling a Big 10 title contender as either OSU or UM, then, alas, came the Iowa game. Pardon me if I'm not terribly impressed by Juice and Mendenhall's huge days at the Metrodome. Illinois does have a good defense though and may keep this one close well into the fourth quarter. Beanie Wells, though, continues to roll. OSU 24 ILL 19

Kansas @ Oklahoma State: After yet another Michigan State imitation (a massively blown lead to Texas) last week, the Cowboys and their explosive offense welcome the finest Jayhawk team in many an autumn. As mentioned yesterday, concerns abound from the lackluster KU defensive effort against hapless Nebraska, despite the "76" on their side of the ledger. West Virginia, among others, eagerly wait for this team to flop under the burden of weighty expectations--as the WVA always does this themselves, they figure others must suffer the same fate. Look for the Pokes to mope a little too long, Coach Mangino and Co. escape Stillwater, reminiscient of the 2000 Sooners. KU 31 OSU 21

Auburn @ Georgia: The Dawgs, fresh off their uninspiring effort against Troy (my, what a non-conference schedule!) host the tough Tigers between the hedges. Georgia needs another L from Tennessee, but, thanks to Moreno, have begun to think SEC title, which would calculate to Mark Richt's third in six seasons, a pace not seen in Athens since the Dooley Era. Still, I think Auburn is a mentally-tougher team and no coach in America is better than Tommy Tuberville on the road, they'll be some head-knockin' in this one, touchdowns at a premium? AUB 17 UGA 13

Michigan @ Wisconsin: Akin to WVA-LOU, many pundits saw the Big 10 race come down to this clash in Madison. Two years ago, Bucky finally got over the Wolverine hump, yet registered their only loss of 2006 in Ann Arbor. These games always seem to go the same way: Wisky tries to ram it down UM's throat, and the blue-and-yellow helmets repel every assault, the Wolverines make one or two big plays and that is that. After humilations to Penn State and Ohio State, plus a missed opportunity at Illinois, the once-solid Badgers are reeling. Does that mean... uh, no. UM 42 WIS 20

Florida @ South Carolina: The Gators last stand to defend their conference championship and Tebow's bid to reclaim his Heisman standing. The OBC just got destroyed in Fayetteville, so he'll prove no doubt relieved to see the talent of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones nowhere on the Florida roster. Two years ago, SoCaro upset Urban Meyer in his first year, last fall, only a tremendous FG block by future NFL first-rounder (no word if he gave tOSU some of his DEN signing bonus) saved a loss at the Swamp. Look for Tebow to have a big day, as the Gators just might get a rematch with LSU after all. FLA 32 SoCaro 14

USC @ California: No, the Pac-10 title will not be won in Berkeley, absent a major upset, the Oregon Ducks will take their first crown since 2001. The Trojans, destined to go down as one of the most colossally-overrated preseason teams ever (at least FSU '93 lived up to the hype), could potentially drop their third game in the conference. For once, CAL has the best player on the field in DeSean Jackson, yet Pete Carroll (who may never receive another pro offer quite like the one at the end of last season) has bludgeoned the Bears two consecutive years, three straight wins if one includes the California domination-turned-loss in Los Angeles in 2004. The Tedfords don't quite rate with the NEBs and NDs for disappointing years, but close, and it will get worse. USC 35 CAL 27

Arkansas @ Tennessee: The Vols limped out of Fayeteville last year and if they wish to prevail in the SEC East they must avenge that loss Saturday. McFadden, with another 200 yard (or more) day, could persuade some Heisman voters that he is the best player in college football even if his team is out of the SEC race. Few teams have been as up-and-down as TEN, but the "downs" of CAL, FLA, and ALA don't augur well for the Razorback ground attack. Smiles from #5 and Urban Meyer. ARK 28 TEN 24

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 4

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (NC)
4. Oklahoma (NC)
5. Missouri (+1)
6. Kansas (+1)
7. West Virginia (+2)
8. Arizona State (-3)
9. Michigan (+2)
10. Georgia (NC)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Florida (+3)
13. Southern California (+3)
14. Connecticut (-1)
15. Virginia Tech (+3)
16. Texas (+3)
17. Arkansas (+6)
18. Boston College (-10)
19. Alabama (-5)
20. Tennessee (4)
21. California (+1)
22. Boise State (NR)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Clemson (NR)
25. Illinois (NR)

That's the end of you: South Florida, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma State

Special Mention: Navy

Still no Hawaii...

Credit to an embattled Matt Flynn and an opportunistic (if overrated) LSU defense for keeping the Tigers national title hopes very much alive. Nick Saban nearly pulled this one out after a long punt return for a touchdown, but the Bayou Bengals roared back, convincingly, and won 41-34. Barely, just barely, LSU stays #1.

Oregon impressed, but so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't quit after an avalanche of Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon TD tosses, down 3-21, they rallied behind the splendid play of Rudy Carpenter, perhaps not 100%, and until a late fumble just after a completed deep ball (a score there would've made matters 30-35) did not go away. The better team won, as the Ducks snapped out of a two-quarter funk through hard running by All America candidate Jonathan Stewart. Of chief concern for the Ducks: the injury to their star QB. Fortunately, Oregon now has their three toughest Pac-10 tests behind them, finishing 2-1. The comparisons to LSU will go on for some time, and, yes, many people are secretly hoping a certain team falls in two weeks so they can take both to the Not Sugar.

Trailing 10-17 late in the third, it looked like the same-old same-old for Ohio State against Wisconsin--as in not enough points and another home defeat, which would have made four straight. Not this time. A riled up defense shut out the Badgers the rest of the way, and Beanie Wells and Co. (the O-line) went on a 28-0 run to ice the game. Wells is setting himself up nicely as a Heisman candidate for 2008, although, if Dixon can't play much the remainder of the season, and #28 bowls over you-know-who in two weeks, well... Todd Boeckman, as predicted here, did not play as well as last week: fortunately, he didn't need to. Still, if he plays like he did in the late first through the early fourth quarter in Ann Arbor the Bucks will lose. For the fourth time in five years, Jim Tressel's team starts 9-1 or better. Congrats, too, on breaking Michigan's Big 10 record for consecutive victories with twenty.

Speaking of UM, they're 13-1 in the last fourteen Big 10 games, as Chad Henne gutted out the performance of his career to erase a 14-24 deficit, and prove, once again, why Sparty is Sparty. Michigan State couldn't make a clutch first down and relinquished the football, alas, everyone in the building knew what would follow. As result of fewer than 130 yards and no scores, it seems the Heisman dream is over for Mike Hart. Even if H20 carries his team to a Big 10 title, it is likely not going to prove enough to take it from a quarterback. A 10-2 finish, though, would net him the prized Doak and a seat in NYC with Dixon, Tebow, and Ryan.

If Matt Ryan had a Heisman moment last week with his awesome final strike to nip Virginia Tech, his third interception definitely gave his backers something to reconsider. The BCS computers (and pollsters) had long overrated this team, which, let us remind you, struggled with the now 1-8 Irish. Ryan put up spectacular numbers, yet the average Golden Eagle defense allowed an eye-popping 450+ yards to a Florida State offense that last accomplished those numbers in a major tilt seven years ago. Yes, I had the Seminoles, and now it appeared it was only a matter of time before the new media darling crashed and burned. Can Ryan still win the Heisman? Well, it helps if Dixon can't play, but if Tebow wins the SEC title for Florida, the BC signal-caller isn't going to beat him either. We may also look back on this game as yet another national title lost for Ohio State, pending the results of their game in Michigan Stadium and bowl opponent.

The travails of Nebraska continue. While KU's 76-39 result will look like an early season hoops score, some skepticism is warranted. Sans Sam Keller, and at home, that is an awful lot of points to give up to the Huskers, and NEB only scored eight in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just a fluke game, but Missouri has a much better defense and with Chase Daniel, still a darkhorse Heisman candidate, an offense to put up forty on the Fightin' Manginos. The question now becomes, as one of only two undefeated Big Six conference teams, is whether an undefeated Kansas can creep all the way to the top two and secure a most improbable spot in the Not Sugar.

As for the Tigers, for whatever reason they ran up the score in Boulder, perhaps to send a message to the voters: we're a Top 5 team. If they can trip up unbeaten Kansas in KC then a rematch with Oklahoma and a possible national title shot awaits. It is this blogger's feeling, though, that either OU or MIZZ/KS needs a Buckeye loss to have a serious chance, even then, the pull for Oregon and LSU may prove too strong.

BCS Musings...

Ohio State, obviously, controls its own destiny. Irrespective of whatever SOS the Pac-10 and SEC champs boast, neither can ascend to #1 on their own. Despite the big points for beating previously unbeaten Arizona State, LSU will still remain ahead of Oregon in the computers, the question is whether the humans boost the Ducks in the polls from #5 to #3 or #2. If #2, I think they overtake LSU, if not, the Bayou Bengals would hold an extraordinarily tenuous margin. The wildcard is Kansas, the Jayhawks will advance to #1 in Jeff Sagarin's rankings and possibly jump from #5 to #3 in the computers, that, coupled with a predicted ascent to #6 in the polls, would give KU (6-6-3 = 5) enough to leapfrog idle West Virginia. Oklahoma does not have the computer ranking to compete for the national championship unless they somehow can secure the #2 slot in the polls. Either Oregon or LSU would jump them from #3 due to the computer ranking? Payback for the ridiculously strong OU 2003 finish in the computers that forced a rule change because it sent a team that had lost its conference title game 7-35 to the BCS Championship.

Predicted order...

1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Oregon
4) Kansas
5) Oklahoma

Heisman talk...

The plot thickens as the most interesting Heisman race in years continues to evolve. Dennis Dixon keeps my #1 vote, yet it's going to prove hard to keep him there if he plays sparingly from here on out, with coaches hoping to save him for the Rose Bowl or the Not Sugar. Matt Ryan has the numbers, yet a home loss to unranked FSU on the heels of a lucky escape in Blacksburg with no out of conference win (thanks, ND) to show for itself has to drop him back, behind Tebow, in the conversation. Great games against South Carolina, Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game would vault Tebow, a true sophomore, to the top of the list. Unfortunately for him, though, if Tennessee doesn't lose again then the Gators, despite a 59-20 win over the Vols, will not play LSU in Atlanta. Given that one SEC player has won the award since Bo Jackson, it defies logic to presume a three-loss, non-division winning team player can do so. Things would seem to set up well for Darren McFadden, but his partner-in-crime Felix Jones continues to take away the big guy's carries, scores, and spotlight. Hypothetical: 400 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and two Michigan wins. Question: is it enough for Mike Hart to claim the trophy at the last moment? Carson Palmer did do something remarkably similar in 2002. We might ask the same question of another Big 10 tailback, should Ohio State run the table.

Heisman ballot: Dixon, Tebow, Ryan, Hart, and, yes, Chris Wells

Week 10 Preview: Nearing the Home Stretch

Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Yes, RT2020 has been harping on this game for the entire season, irrespective of Bucky's record, no team has given Jim Tressel's Buckeyes more trouble than U-Dub. Worse, OSU has not managed to defeat Wisconsin--at home--since, wait for it, 1996. The final score then, incidentally, read 17-14, this from one of a handful of Ohio State teams to record a +300 DELTA. On the other hand, Buckeye teams generally don't smash Penn State under the lights at Beaver Stadium, and P. J. Hill, in the same mould as Ron Dayne and Anthony Davis, may or may not go. Senator Tressel has accumulated a less-than-sterling 1-3 record against the Badgers, the lone win coming in the 2002 title season at Camp Randall. Todd Boeckman will not play that well again, yet can Wisconsin score enough? PSU throttled them a few weeks ago, still, by all means take the points. Give Ryan Petroius a clutch kick to allow the Bucks to escape. OSU 20 WIS 19

Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13

Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20

Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21

Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28

Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13

RT2020 Poll: Week of October 28

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)

Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon

End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech

Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina

The UK Category: Kentucky

A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut

Musings...

Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.

I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.

LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.

A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.

Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.

Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.

I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?

Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?

Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.

Projected BCS Standings:

1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)

Heisman ballot:

1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it

OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL

Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA

Just for fun...

FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)

2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus

Week 9 Preview: The First One Now Will...

Later be Last? Yes, I see the times a-changin for some current conference leaders this weekend - the most important collection of games thus far. More and more dough is accumulating at the center of the table. Time to see who's for real.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech: Look, I know Ohio State's schedule is less than arduous, but the computers, sans Billingsley, must've given BC credit for defeating '93 ND instead of the '07 version. What have they done??? How are they rated ahead of LSU? I hope Mr. Edwards will let me know later today, nonetheless... the Hokies have a history of flopping in big-time home night tilts in the last few years, namely to Pittsburgh and Miami. How good is Virginia Tech? Neither of these teams has impressed me, but absent a Heisman day from Matt Ryan, the Golden Eagles will return to Chesnut Hill with a blemish. VT 24 BC 14

Ohio State @ Penn State: RT2020 has gone back and forth on this one. This Nittany Lion edition is less imposing than 2005 yet better than 2003, need I remind you which contest OSU won in Happy Valley. The OSU offense, however, significantly rated better then (2005) as opposed to now, save for perhaps at tailback. PSU has some speed on the outside, but, check the records, they haven't scored twenty points on the Bucks since 2001. In other words, they don't frighten me. What does scare me is Todd Boeckman reprising his performance from the 2H of last week. If OSU doesn't turn it over, they could win easily--their defense is playing that well and Anthony Morelli has yet to justify the #14 jersey to them. Yeah, but White Out II will end poorly nonetheless, another title shot buried beneath an abundance of sacks and critical turnovers plus one PSU big-gainer. Get ready to chortle, Mr. Maisel. PSU 27 OSU 13

California @ Arizona State: I have no idea how good the Sun Devils are and neither does anyone else, of course, I'm not sure what beating the once-formidable Bears would do for their reputation anyway. Here is what I do know: DeSean Jackson is the best player on the field, and it wasn't his fault the Tedfords fell to the Bruins last week. Night games in Tempe, however, can turn into nightmares: look no further than Nebraska, circa 1996, when they still rated as a national power. Also, for all his foibles, Denny-K wins big games. ASU 34 CAL 31 OT

USC @ Oregon: My, these battles just keep on coming. Pete Carroll has owned Mike Belloti for the better part of a decade, a supposedly tough quarrel at Autzen in 2005 quickly degenerated after recess into another walk-through for the GREATEST TEAM EVER! This time, with Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, Oregon has the better offense if not the best in the nation. After all, Michigan's defense has clamped down since their 7-32 debacle, and may run the board in the Big 10. Yet, whether with Mark Sanchez or John David Booty, this is a made-to-order game for the Trojans. A win here puts them in a position to claim another conference championship at Tempe. Can they score enough points? Will Oregon make enough mistakes? Is my #2 team the genuine article? Yeah. ORE 41 USC 28

West Virginia @ Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights aren't a particularly good team (read: the MD game), but they are nasty in Piscataway. Last year, the Schianos blew a conference title in the closing seconds over a dispirited WVA team mostly going through the motions in Morgantown. Patrick White looked very good last week against competition that defeated Auburn and looks to lead the Mountaineers back to the Sugar Bowl. WVA 30 RUT 24

Kansas @ Texas A&M: Aggie Nation believed a small sign of relief with their second half dismantling of the once-powerful Nebraska program, yet a win here could guarantee yet another year for one of the oiliest men in the coaching fraternity, Denny-F, who still doesn't understand he is where he is because of LaDainian Tomlinson. In any event, the Fightin' Mangioes boast a vicious defense and just claimed a nice road win in Boulder. Yet, are they ready for the Twelfth Man in College Station? Survey says... no. TAMU 27 KS 19

South Florida @ Connecticut: After failing to show maturity last Thursday night, the Bulls can show that they're not going to allow a conference title to slip away--yet it's another tough road games, against, that's right, the #1 team in the Big East, fresh off a controversial win over the ineptitude that is the U of L post-Petrino. UCONN is a long way to travel for the disappointed once-#2s, good thing Jim Leavitt gets to take all that speed with him up north. USF 23 UCONN 20

Florida @ Georgia: All of sudden, yep, that sound you just heard is of the irrepressible Urban Meyer busily running the accounting machine on just how he can maneuever the Gators back to the Not Sugar discussion. Having Tim Tebow, my Heisman front-runner, assists that mission. Playing UGA, a team FLA has owned for more than a decade, ditto. America's top college coach has still not lost a game to the Hard Triangle (UGA, TEN, FSU) and with more fireworks from #15 the Mighty Gators might roll to fitty again. FLA 47 UGA 21

South Carolina @ Tennessee: Will the OBC recover against the coach he's tormented over the years? Phil Fulmer got some satisfaction from last year's decisive win in Columbia, yet his team is reeling after another embarrassing conference loss--again to a huge rival. Plus, it has been nine loooong years (and counting) since Rocky Top last held the SEC crown. Fear the Vols, however, as an underdog, something the Dawgs learned all too well last year. Erik Ainge, while not all-conference worthy, is still a better bet than the 'Cocks have, and no, Mr. Meyer will not like this result. TEN 26 SoCaro 23

If you're scoring at home, or as Olbermann once had it, even if you're alone, RT2020 sees the #1 team in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East all slipping up, mostly because three of them play away from home. Despite their ghastly #14 computer ranking, Oklahoma would jump right back into the national title game picture if such a scenario came to pass.

Heisman Watch: Tebow (up), Dixon (up), Jackson (up), and Ryan (down)

Projected BCS Standings (Oct 28):

1) LSU
2) Oregon
3) Arizona State
4) Oklahoma
5) Virginia Tech

And...

8) Florida

Aaaaarrrrrgggggghhhhh... their stranglehold on the money-making NCAA sports national titles may not yet have concluded. Should you perceive my ratcheting up of Gator hype and increased Tebow for Heisman cheerleading as some pitiful and ultimately in vain reverse psychology ploy, well... why the cynicism???

Undefeated Suckeyes: Guaranteed Shot?

Oops, pardon my imitation of the college football world less than pleased at the prospect of another appearance by The Ohio State University in a BCS Championship Game. The Buckeyes, as last year, debuted at #1 in the BCS Standings, due to their strength over South Florida in the polls, which, essentially, owes to their higher preseason ranking (#11).

RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.

So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.

In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:

1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1

Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:

1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2

Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.

Again:

1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0

Aggregate: 10-2

1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1

Aggregate: 4-8

Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.

Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.

We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.

Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?

Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...

If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.

Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.

Others...

South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!

Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.

If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.

Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.

RT2020 Poll: Week of October 14

1. South Florida (+4)
2. Louisiana State (-1)
3. South Carolina (+1)
4. Oklahoma (+2)
5. Oregon (+4)
6. Ohio State (-3)
7. Boston College (NC)
8. Florida (NC)
9. California (-7)
10. Missouri (+1)
11. Arizona State (+7)
12. KENTUCKY!!!!! (+6)
13. Virginia Tech (+3)
14. Kansas (+5)
15. West Virginia (-5)
16. Auburn (+6)
17. Michigan (+3)
18. Southern California (-6)
19. Penn State (NR)
20. Tennessee (+4)
21. Maryland (DNP)
22. Georgia (+3)
23. Texas (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (NR)

Ugliness abounds: #13 (told ya so) Cincinnati, #14 (rush to leave that bandwagon) Illinois, #15 Florida State, and #21 (where'd the D go) Wisconsin

Poise? What poise?: #1 LSU, #2 California, and #12 USC

Yes, I suppose we have to rank you: #24 (ugly road win) Hawaii and #19 Penn State

Unbeaten only due to schedule: #6 Ohio State and #7 Boston College

Well, then... Our deepest thanks, Lones Seiber, wow.

Are you prepared to wake up in a college football world with Ohio State leading the BCS Standings??? What is this, 2006 all over again? No, safely, Florida has two defeats. More Top 5 shakeup on this... the second full weekend in October.

Yes, I still have LSU at #1. They lost only in triple OT, albeit to an inferior team, on the road. They still have wins over Virginia Tech and Florida. That having been said... YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY erased a double-digit halftime lead on the nation's best defense, forced OT, made an especially clutch field goal to force the third session, and... a defense that had been gashed all day on the ground held LSU to nine yards on four carries when it mattered most. The Bayou Bengals don't deserve to fall off the top spot, not with Cal pulling a Tedford--at home to an unranked but talented Oregon State squad. I am thisclose to putting South Florida numero uno (wins at Auburn and against West Virginia), but not yet... oh, all right. The Bulls also callously ran up the score on Central Florida, unaware that now all they have to do is win out to improbably reach N'Orleans for the Not-Sugar. FOX executives, swallow USF v. BC!

Why does an admitted OSU partisan drop the Bucks after a forty-five point win? How about getting outrushed at home by a MAC team? Nitpicking? What does the OSU line think Rashad Mendenhall is going to do, let alone Mike Hart? Yes, the scoring defense remains second to none, but we saw this last year. Win at State College, over the resurgent Nittany Lions, and then I will start to buy into another BCS bowl appearance. On the other hand, what do we know about Boston College? A decent victory under the once-Golden Dome (yeah, I missed this game) against a 1-5 Irish team that struggles to get out of their own way. Matt Ryan, in the absence of a superior performance, has a real shot at not just reaching New York City...

Good job by the Sooners as well, though, not as impressive as I would have thought. Sam Bradford is going to have an outside shot at representing OU at the big ceremony, even if the Oklahoma schedule becomes easier due to the lack of another Big 12 power. Chase Daniel and the Missouri Tigers are a very good team, and may have a chance to upset the BCS title game picture in the Big 12 Championship, except that Kansas looms. That's right, only the Jayhawks remain undefeated, and as for Nebraska, well, perhaps the less said the better (housed, in Lincoln, by thirty-one). What is this, 1995? Er, we wouldn't have seen the Okie State result in 1995...

I suppose Mark Sanchez and the USC Trojans earn minimal points for perservering through a 20-13 hard slog against Arizona, check that, no they don't. Is this not a team headed for defeat in Eugene, Tempe, and Berkeley? True, all of those qualify as USC signature games, but their offense has posted just forty-three points, with a net margin of six, in their last two home games against "meh" opposition. Yet, if they can find a way to win out, well, let's not discuss the possibility of a team that lost to Stanford at home playing for all the marbles.

Can I rank Auburn even higher? Two losses says I cannot, even though they stifled once-Heisman favorite Darren McFadden and his partner-in-crime Felix Jones. Watch out at the Rouge, LSU. That game will decide the SEC West. Can UK actually win the SEC East? Sure, just defeat Tebow-led Florida at Commonwealth next week and hope the Gators can upset (strange verb, no?) South Carolina in Columbia. In other words, play better there than the Cats recently did, ick.

Very, very quietly, Oregon has returned to the national title game picture, ditto West Virginia. A win by the Ducks over the Trojans would place Dennis Dixon in definite Heisman consideration, assuming that, in the nation's toughest conference (sorry, SEC) Oregon can get through without another loss. Speaking of the mighty Pac-10, you had the Sun Devils as their last undefeated team, right? Of course. The oily Denny Erickson, traveling man, somehow has his team on the doorstep of Top 10 status. Indeed, the AP voters may well put them there now. Can they beat USC when it matters? Stay tuned...

Is it too late to discount Michigan from the national title race? Yes. We're not at the point where a team can lose 7-39 in their crib and recover that significantly, but my are we headed in that direction. The more things change in the Big 10 (adding a team, utilization of the spread offense) the more they stay the same: OSU @ Michigan for the Big 10 title, winner loses the big bowl game thereafter, natch.

Lastly, in the unquestioned game of the day, the Rich Brooks for SEC Coach of the Year bus shifted out of second gear, I realize at this point my resistance is futile. Woodson didn't have his best game, yet he made no crucial errors in the second half and his defense combined with LSU's foolish happy-passing resulted in the program's biggest football win since 1964 and probably second only to the toppling of unbeaten Oklahoma to close the 1950 campaign. The Tigers never seem to play well in Lexington, yet, finally, they got bit in the Bluegrass!!!

Snapshot Heisman ballot: Andre' Woodson, Mike Hart, Tim Tebow, Matt Ryan, and Sam Bradford. #1 v. #3 next week in Lexington, H20 should go next week in Champaign. Woodson needs ten wins, Hart needs a Big 10 title w/ a victory over Ohio State, Tebow needs an SEC Championship, and Ryan needs to go undefeated.

RT2020 Poll: Week of October 7

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. California (+1)
3. Ohio State (+2)
4. South Carolina (+5)
5. South Florida (-1)
6. Oklahoma (+7)
7. Boston College (+1)
8. Florida (+6)
9. Oregon (+2)
10. West Virginia (+2)
11. Missouri (+7)
12. Southern California (-10)
13. Cincinnati (+7)
14. Illinois (NR)
15. Florida State (NC)
16. Virginia Tech (+1)
17. kentucky (-11)
18. Arizona State (+1)
19. Kansas (NR)
20. Michigan (+1)
21. Wisconsin (-14)
22. Auburn (+2)
23. Maryland (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Georgia (-15)

The New Guys: #14 Illinois, #19 Kansas, #23 Maryland, and (welcome back to the world of the living) #24 Tennessee

The USC Category: #12 (quick, name a quality win... Washington?) USC and UCLA, what a night for Los Angeles! Thank goodness there's an NFL team to take the good citizenry's mind off... oh, nevvvvver mind.

Not as Good as They Thought: #12 USC, #17 kentucky, #21 Wisconsin, #25 Georgia, and #23 Kansas State

DEFINITELY NOT as Good as They Thought: Purdue, Michigan State, and Kansas State

IRRELEVANT TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Texas, Nebraska, Louisville, and, of course, UCLA

APOLOGIES TO: Utah, not ranked because their win over UCLA has been rendered inconseqential

Ramblings...

UNBELIEVABLE!!! Of the three WORST losses by major college football teams in my viewing lifetime, two occurred in the same year and nearly the SAME month! Until Michigan's colossal upending at the hands of App-y State, Oklahoma held the dubious distinction with a 13-16 egg, at home, with ZERO rushing yards, to not only an unranked Oklahoma State team, but one with a LOSING record--needing only a "W" to advance to the Big 12 Championship Game against Colorado. Well, USC just "soared" past both UM and OU, with the most STUNNING loss in my memory.

Consider: Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh CALLED THEM OUT in the preseason, REPEATEDLY! How the Cardinal snuck up on a listless #2 Trojan team is incomprehensible. People like me wondered aloud if USC would put up sixty on these clowns from Palo Alto. Yet, once again, just as I suspected, an inability to run the football--a mere 3.5 y/c at HOME--did USC in, well, that and a charity vis-a-vis FIVE turnovers.

36-game home winning streak: GONE
41-point favorite: LOSS
John David Booty's Heisman campaign: OVER
USC's Mystique: SHATTERED
Michigan feels: MUCH, MUCH BETTER

How is this for wicked irony? Southern California lost perhaps the ONLY "losable" game which would cost them a chance to reach Bourbon Street with one loss. With Cal and Oregon, certainly possible, now? HELL NO! Oklahoma, inferior schedule notwithstanding, is FAR ahead of the Trojans, ditto every unbeaten team and perhaps, dare we suggest it, West Fricking Virginia.

OMG!!! USC!!! OMG!!! USC!!! This just in... NOT as good as the 2005 team.

How about a word for the never-say-die Fighting Harbaughs. A defensive touchdown; a 4-20 conversion with time running out; a 4-G TD strike with seconds to play; a defense that didn't quit after allowing USC a long TD pass to the TE. Talk about a game those players will remember for the rest of their lives. Yes, truly, they shocked the world.

For all of its corruption, for all the unfair powers of the oligarchy, games like USC/Stanford remind all of us why college football is the greatest setting for drama in the whole of American sports. EVERY week, a loss can mean the end of a dream. We have reached ONLY the first weekend of October, and look at the carnage.

I will now take my humble bow for predicting USC would not reach the Not Sugar in N'Orleans... so long as one disregards my August prediction of their game versus Stanford. App-y State, never thought I would say it, but you've been relegated to second place in the quest to determine the Upset of the Century (eight years in).

Elsewhere...

You'll note that the Gators actually went up despite losing their second straight. Absent one interception, Tim Tebow nearly carried the day against the now firmly-entrenched #1 team in America. LSU's defense, though, proved enough of a stone wall, and gutsy calls by Les Miles/poise by Matt Flynn, kept the Bayou Bengals unblemished. A tremendous SEC contest, between two powerhouses. The Tigers showed some heart, down double digits at home, in their furious rally before the frenzied masses. Urban Meyer almost turned the trick again, but now, finally, Florida's string of national championships has ended. LSU travels to Lexington next, where their last two trips, albeit victories, should not inspire smugness.

Playing against only a darkened field, Purdue's Curtis Painter threw a touchdown pass just before the lights officially shut off on the Boilers seaso... err... the Big 10 showdown against Ohio State. The Boilers soon converted the two-point conversion, shockingly, on a play-action pass. At 23-15, they lined up for the onside kick, no word yet as to whether they recovered.

How about Ohio State's defense? Are we starting to believe now? Yes, memories of allowing eighty points in their last two contests to close 2006 are becoming quite distant. Finally, a word (re: rant) about Purdue: I hope you celebrated that meaningless garbage TD with 0:11 to go. You were just exposed as a fraud to a nationwide television audience, but, no, you had to call a timeout and then later couldn't even RUN it in from the two, because, well, you had FOUR total rushing yards to that point. OSU even gave you three turnovers and your high-powered spread offense didn't do squat.

Curtis Painter, I hope you're happy to throw your nineteenth TD pass of the year--it was as fraudulent as your football team's ranking. I usually don't complain about stuff like that, but when not even the recovery of an onside kick would make overtime or a win possible, scoring so late truly makes your team look small. The best example is UM from 2005 against the Bucks, they did score late on a prevent defense, yet HAD they recovered the kick, well, they probably would've won or at least forced OT. Purdue had NO chance and merely padded their irrelevant statistics. Classless, Boilermakers, classless. Great job, Tress. I wouldn't have even grasped Joe Tiller's hand at the end of this one, watch yourself in Columbus next year, poseurs.

I almost never say this, but... ATTENTION MICHIGAN: F___ them up in your tilt.

This just in... Cincinnati is for real, Rutgers is clearly not, and it's the Bearcats and the Bulls (WTF?) for Big East supremacy. West Virginia rebounded nicely, but they're not in the conversation just yet.

Phil Fulmer, way to circle the wagons. Georgie, what the hell happened? You've now beaten an overrated Alabama team, lost at home to the surging 'Cocks, and been blasted by one of the most defensively-challenged Vol teams of the modern era. Fortunately, I now think UK will have a shot to beat you between the hedges.

C'mon, admit it, you had Missouri as the last unbeaten Big 12 team in early October, right? Ahem, Nebraska felt so good about its latest result from their team that the program awarded Coach Bill Callahan another extension, presumably for allowing over 300 yards on the ground in Lincoln to a USC team that FAILED to crack 100 AT HOME against STANFORD!

RAPIDLY CONCEIVED HEISMAN BALLOT: Tebow, Hart, Jackson, McFadden, and Woodson