Showing posts with label West Virginia as #2?. Show all posts
Showing posts with label West Virginia as #2?. Show all posts

Monday, November 26, 2007

Week 14 Preview: Prelude to a Championship

They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just one favorite to win a game to qualify for the Not Sugar just over a month from now. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for another team (MIZZ and WVA) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a seven-point home loss in early November. Here sit the Ohio State Buckeyes, 10-1 (scrap the D-1AA game, as the BCS does), waiting for these two teams.

They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just two favorites to win a game to qualify for a BCS game, three for the Rose Bowl. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for three of these four teams (MIZZ, TEN, BC, HI) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a penalty-filled home loss to Michigan which cost them the Big 10 title. Here sit the Illinois Fightin' Illini, waiting for those three teams.

VERDICT: Big 10 denied, yessir, lot of money riding on this slate of games for Mr. Delaney and the crew...

Missouri v. Oklahoma (San Antonio): The Big 12 Championship. Had the Sooners avoided the upset bug in Lubbock, this game would pit #1 v. #2 perhaps, even so, only one team was headed to N'Orleans. I liked the way the Tigers played in Norman until their self-destructive nature kicked in leading to a 31-41 loss to Sam Bradford and OU, still smarting after a dubious collapse in Boulder. Bob Stoops is the better coach, Oklahoma has the better athletes, but is Chase Daniel and, gasp, Missouri speed enough to put a perennial mediocrity on Bourbon Street? There is a chance if Missouri loses a close one the BCS will keep them above Kansas and thus in line for a possible BCS game. The North has won just TWICE in this contest since the turn of the century (2001, a upset of #2 Texas by Colorado; 2003, a smackdown for the ages of #1-by-a-country-mile Oklahoma courtesy of Darren Sproles and Kansas State) and OU has smashed through several times. The support of the college football world, what of it is not spent in Morgantown, rides with the feel-good story of those boys from Columbia. Will the Buckeyes once again play the role of villains? No, in a classic, Missouri marches on and Chase Daniel takes the Heisman Trophy from Tim Tebow. MIZZ 37 OU 31

Pittsburgh @ West Virginia: Yes, folks are often impressed by shiny objects, and it doesn't come shinier than a 66-21 whipping of UCONN to sew up a conference title. This game will determine which week WVA plays in N'Orleans, heaven knows they want zero part of LSU. Look for this one to remain undecided into the second half, it is the Backyard Brawl after all and the 2007 season might have one more epic upset in store for us. Nah, who am I kidding? The Mountaineer defense bent but didn't break last week, if they can hold the Panthers to twenty-five, this one is a blowout. More hosannas, thus, on the way. WVA 56 PIT 16

Boston College v. Virginia Tech: The ACC Championship and a rematch of a stirring comeback/collapse earlier this season in Blacksburg. At that time, Matt Ryan seemed to have his hands all over the Heisman, a pair of bad losses plus a rejeuvenation at Clemson ended the Golden Eagles title hopes but do give them a credible Orange Bowl shot. Tech is the better team with a better defense but an inferior quarterback, which means the game is once again in Ryan's hands, with a seat in NYC beckoning. Chestnut Hill gorges itself over oranges. BC 27 VT 23

LSU v. Tennessee: The SEC Championship and a thorough letdown. Not only is surging Georgia not here but neither is a one-loss (de facto unbeaten in SEC-speak) Bayou Bengal squad. Instead we have the bumbling Vols with their embattled coach taking on a distracted Tiger team that cannot feel too confident about their play as of late. Fortunately, Tennessee doesn't run the ball like it used to, you know, back when it last won the conference title (1998?!?). Years ago, Matt Mauck flummoxed a gassed #2 Tennessee, whose running back had nothing left after an awesome display in Gainesville the week prior, and cost them a title bout with Miami. Revenge of 2001? Eh, not so much. LSU (Coach Miles last game?) 30 UT 20

UCLA @ USC: The battle for the Ax. Revenge. Less than fondly remembering a horse-whipping in 2005 at the hands of Bush, White, and Co., the Baby Blues rose up and decimated Trojan hopes in 2006 to the tune of a 9-13 loss that ushered Florida into the Not Fiesta. Far from being incensed, Pete Carroll should extend some gratitude: the Bruins bounced Oregon from the Rose Bowl perch last week, now, once again, it is all on UCLA. Not close. USC 51 UCLA 21

Washington @ Hawaii: Our last unbeaten in D-1A looks to enter Fiesta Bowl deliberations with a win over a Pac-10 doormat beaten down by perhaps the nation's toughest schedule. While Illinois looks on praying not only for a Huskies upset but also that men in blazers don't think upon their Iowa performance, Colt Brennan, with, say, 7 TD and 700 yards passing, can join Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, and Ryan in the Big Apple. Does Hawaii deserve a BCS bid over Illinois? No, but that's coming from a Buckeye sympathizer. Will they get one? Yes. HI 45 WASH 36

Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 1, MIZZ win)

Daniel, McFadden, Tebow, Brennan, and Ryan

Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 2, MIZZ loss)

Tebow, McFadden, Daniel, Brennan, and Ryan

Predicted ballot: Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, Brennan, Ryan

Predicted BCS lineup:

Not Sugar: #1 Missouri v. #2 West Virginia (Big 12 and Big East teams)
Fiesta Bowl and Orange Bowl lose conference champions
Rose Bowl: Ohio State and USC
Sugar Bowl: LSU and Kansas
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State and Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Boston College and Georgia

Sunday, November 25, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 25

1. Missouri (+1)
2. Ohio State (+1)
3. West Virginia (+1)
4. Georgia (+1)
5. Louisiana State (-4)
6. Southern California (+4)
7. Virginia Tech (+3)
8. Florida (NC)
9. Kansas (-3)
10. Illinois (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+4)
12. Auburn (+1)
13. Tennessee (-1)
14. Arizona State (-7)
15. Wisconsin (+5)
16. Arkansas (+8)
17. Boston College (+5)
18. Michigan (+3)
19. Hawaii (+4)
20. Virginia (-4)
21. South Florida (NR)
22. Brigham Young (NR)
23. Clemson (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Penn State (NR)

Sublime: #1 Missouri, #3 West Virginia, and #6 Southern California

Laid an Egg: #5 LSU, #9 Kansas, and #14 Arizona State

Unreal. That was my initial reaction to the end of LSU's title run yesterday to Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, some H-back, and practically everyone who wanted to run the ball against the once-fearsome Tigers. Almost 400 yards--on the ground. An inability to force a key turnover late in the second half or on three Hog OT drives. I had believed in the Bayou Bengals since last December, even to the point of assuming without #1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell that this crew would prove better than 11-2. Yes, I thought the offense would rate as less explosive sans two NFL first-round picks at wideout, but I didn't count on the defense. Yes, D-Mac is spectacular and maybe a Heisman threat again (more below), but no self-respecting defense should allow an improvised wishbone to gash it time after time. Yes, this same thing happened to Ohio State, also at home, but to a better team with a uniquely-skilled quarterback. Also, the Bucks coughed it up repeatedly, LSU didn't make a mistake until Matt Flynn's last pass deep in the third overtime. And still lost.

Les Miles, it is now safe to pursue the Michigan job, but what a clunker to end your meaningful LSU tenure. All of those athletes and promse, yet two-losses every season. Last year, the schedule made that understandable, this season? Not so much. No program in America had a more title-friendly slate than the Bayou Bengals and they failed to get it done, and the fact both defeats came in triple overtime shouldn't ease their pain or the criticism. Don't worry, a trip to N'Orleans is still in the offering, yet, remarkably, with only the same stakes as last year.

Congratulations to the new #1 and illest of luck against Oklahoma next week. Chase Daniel had a Heisman Trophy moment in KC, but he has to do it again or the Tigers will blow their best opportunity in decades. Kansas proved that they were not the best team in the nation, sorry computers. They beat no one and lost the only game that mattered, in the words I once presumptively addressed to WVA, goodbye to all that. Nice season, but not a worthy performance of an 11-0 team, yes, the game could've been played in Lawrence, but Daniel was simply the best player on the field, the match will prove tougher, however, next week.

Yes, crushing a ranked conference opponent at home is very impressive, but don't tell me the Mountaineers didn't run up the score! Patrick White played a phenomenal game and WVA just hammered the overrated Huskies to death. Some of those plays were all White and any BCS Championship Game opponent is going to have a difficult time with that explosive, high-octane rushing attack. If you can make White throw it, well, you should beat this team, if not, ugh. I see one Mr. Schlabach, drank the Kool-Aid in full, we'll see, sir, we'll see. Hit this team in the mouth like South Florida and see what happens. This school has never won a national championship and failed miserably in its two efforts (1988 and 1993) with undefeated seasons. UCONN was a lucky team that got smoked, if anyone thinks yesterday's result was more than that, I don't know what else to tell you. On the other hand, give Mr. Schlabach credit, unlike other sniveling, condescending anti-OSUers, he came right out and said it, point-blank: Ohio State has no chance to beat West Virginia and should save themselves the embarrassment of trying. Fair enough. Forty-one to fourteen has a loud ring.

Boise State, overrated by much of the country (pointing at self), should not appear in the next AP poll. They played two borderline tough teams and got smoked by both, last-place Washington and the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii. Look, Colt Brennan is a top quarterback and he played tremendously last night, but spare me this talk of Hawaii as a Top 15 team. You're telling me they're more deserving of a BCS bid then Georgia or Illinois, or even the loser of the Big 12 North title game? I'm just not buying it. A win next week, though, and they will certainly receive a bid.

Kudos to Pete Carroll and USC for finally showing what 99% of the football world forecast in August (but not me, hey, give me something after the LSU/UM Not Sugar prognostication) by dismantling a good ASU team in Tempe. Had he stayed healthy and played like this all year, John David Booty likely takes the Heisman Trophy. In any event, the Trojans are well-positioned to finish in the Top 5 for the sixth consecutive season, the longest stretch since Florida State earned FOURTEEN such marks from 1987-2000.

BCS Prediction:

1) Missouri
2) West Virginia
3) Ohio State

The Bucks will probably trail badly in the human polls because people tend to be impressed by shiny objects, but the computers may look kinder on their one-loss season.

Heisman ballot:

1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
2) Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
3) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

Tebow was tremendous yet again, but the ball is entirely in Daniel's court, even if he isn't quite 40-49 next week, a win over likely favored OU will make this a fascinating three-way race that may hinge on which southern player carries the SEC region. D-Mac had his best performance of the season in the biggest game, knocking the favorite out of the national title picture in the process.