Showing posts with label UK Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UK Preview. Show all posts

Sunday, October 21, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of October 21

1. Louisiana State (+1)
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)

Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee

Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California

Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State

Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas

Brief commentary...

Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.

That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.

A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.

The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.

As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.

USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.

The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.

Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart

Monday, October 8, 2007

Week 7 Preview: Maturity Saturday

LSU @ Kentucky: The Bayou Bengals swing north after a euphoric SEC-defining victory over the Florida Gators and their possible Heisman Trophy winner, whereas the Cats, well, stank in Columbia, and lost their embryonic national championship hopes in a blizzard of bad turnovers. Louisiana State controls their own destiny, yet, in a theme of this week, do they have the maturity to go on the road and beat-up a talented UK offense that won't make as many mistakes at home? Yes, because this is the best team in college football, and they're eyeing a date with Oklahoma, close, for awhile, LSU 31 UK 20, as Kentucky needed to play this one at night.

Boston College @ Notre Dame: My, how the tables have turned. Remember 2002? No, what about 1993 and the epic battle ended by David Gordon's right foot? Not so coincidentally, ND has not regained their mystique since that 41-39 loss, but beating the Golden Eagles--unbeaten but relatively untested--would go a ways to restoring Domer pride. Does BC have the maturity to walk onto hallowed ground (cue the NBC music) and overwhelm an improving Irish? Long accustomed to playing the underdog in this genuninely good series, BC now is undefeated and with a Heisman candidate, ND 19 BC 17, wake up the echoes.

Missouri @ Oklahoma: The Big 12 Championship will prove won at the end of this tilt. Well, I suppose Mizz has two shots at the Sooners, but this is another test for Sam Bradford after skillfully upending once-relevant Texas last week. Can the Sooners roll over another key foe for the second straight week? Maturity, gentlemen. USC is finished as a national title contender, and their slot is now reserved for the Sooners. Sure, the Tigers thrashed the 'Huskers, but more importantly they beat a good Illinois team. The challenge here is not to allow a whipping, OU 55 MIZZ 14 to ruin their fast start, they'll see these guys again.

South Carolina @ North Carolina: A tricky matchup for the rolling 'Cocks in the middle of the SEC race. Butch Davis and the Heels just popped Miami in Chapel Hill next week. SoCaro brings a similar defense and a less-prone-to-mistakes quarterback. UNC is coming, possibly next year, but the 'Cocks get out alive, closer than most would forecast, SoCaro 24 UNC 14

Louisville @ Cincinnati: A very dangerous game for the Bearcats, likely quite pleased with themselves after vanquishing Rutgers. Despite their collapse against Kentucky, colossal upset to Syracuse, and general ineptitude against the Utes... Brian Brohm can still put the ball in the air, and the U of L can still put up the points. At 3-3, this is the last chance for Louisville to begin to salvage their season, as a beatdown in Morgantown looms. LOU 37 CIN 34, if CIN can hold down Brohm, their defense is for real and BCS bowl-worthy.

Auburn @ Arkansas: Think War Eagle might recollect the events of last year, if not, still images of Darren McFadden rumbling through the line and smashing the national title hopes of then-#2 Auburn are readily available. The Tigers still must meet LSU at the Rouge, yet their defense will face a supreme challenge in slowing down D-Mac and Felix Jones. Another Heisman-type day for #5, but the lack of consistency from the quarterback position gives this one away, AUB 23 ARK 21

Texas A&M @ Texas Tech: We don't have that much reason to believe in the Aggies, as that ill-fated trip to Coral Gables rendered a few weeks ago, on the other hand, at 5-1 and 2-0 in the Big 12, they must begin to receive serious consideration as a possible division contender. They get Texas at home, leaving only Oklahoma... and Texas Tech for South supremacy. An uneven team, they are precisely the kind most vulnerable to an ambush from "Basketball on Grass," TT 45 A&M 31

Purdue @ Michigan: Both teams had the schedules to make this one a Top 10 battle, yet a combined three embarrassing performances has left this battle wanting. The Boilers boast an offensive juggernaut of 45.0 ppg and four hundred plus... oh, that was before the Ohio State game? Silly me. Michigan's defense has had issues in four of their six contests, which could make this one more interesting than PU's recent history at the Big House suggests. Not, however, if Mike Hart has anything to say about it. MICH 41 PU 20, hope it's worse than that.

To recap...

Mature and focused: LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Auburn, and Michigan
Ripe for the picking: Boston College, Cincinnati, and Texas A@M

We didn't forget USC's game against 'Zona, did we?

Monday, September 10, 2007

Week 3 Preview: Licked at Lincoln?

Week 3 has a few games of note, and there's always a chance for a Top 15 to fall to an unranked one, but this is one of the last of the not-so impressive Saturdays.

USC @ Nebraska: Unquestionably, the game of the day. The issue before us is whether the Mighty ‘Huskers will ever "return" to college football’s elite. Their performance against Southern California last year bordered on disgraceful, perhaps the most glaring instance of a team not trying to win, but endeavoring only to avoid a knockout. Meanwhile, the Dynasty* certainly has followed the hosannas distributed to LSU after the Tigers swamped Virgina Tech. Booty v. Keller? Nope, can USC find someone in their well-documented tailback stable to rush for 100 yards? I think the Trojans will miss Jarrett and Smith in this game, and look for Sam Keller to begin his push to earn a place in New York City. Nebraska 27 USC 24

Tennessee @ Florida: In 2001, owing in large part to 9/11 (this game has been a September tradition for some time), these two teams played one of the best college football games of this century, as the Vols won for the first time in a generation at the Swamp. They will need the effort of a Travis Stephens-like back and much more to beat Urban Meyer’s champions. Tennessee can get right back into the SEC race and the national conversation with a win, but if Longshore of Cal made their defense look pedestrian, what will Tebow do? A lot. What will his defense do? Enough. The rapidly-becoming-legendary coach remains unbeaten against the Gators' top two rivals. Florida 35 Tennessee 20

Louisville @ Kentucky: Andre’ Woodson has played most of his sterling career in the shadow of Brian Brohm. Perhaps for the final time, the two QBs will square off in a game not likely to see much defense. UK should prove tired of getting embarrassed by the ‘Ville, but a D that allowed over 300 yards to Kent State on the ground looks too unsteady to keep the Cardinals under fifty. Can Woodson outduel Brohm? Winner takes an important step as far as awards go. Bobby Petrino and Michael Bush are gone, but their legacy, unfortunately, lives on. Louisville 56 Kentucky 45

Ohio State @ Washington: Whilst a certain school from South Bend is ducking for cover, Tyrone Willingham’s current team has beaten a former power and a rising power in the last two weeks. Is this the best U-Dub group since 2000? At QB, more than likely. The Buckeye defense, however, has held opponents to just two field goals in two home contests. The X-Factor, which should surprise no one, is Chris Wells. Beanie started to get loose in the second half last week, but this OSU offense is probably not yet functional enough to execute in a hostile environment. Despite a 9-3 cumulative mark, Ohio State has had some ugly games here (remember 1986)? It won’t get that bad, but, Washington 23 Ohio State 9

Arkansas @ Alabama: Darren McFadden’s road to the Heisman and to the Cleveland Browns as #1 overall draft choice begins here with a roadie against the resurgent Tide. ‘Bama hosts both the Hogs and the Bayou Bengals, and judging by Auburn’s recent woes, may have an outside chance to capture the SEC West, or perhaps more. Whatever his shenanigans, Nick Saban is one of the ten best college football coaches in America (Carroll, Meyer, Spurrier, Miles, Stoops, Tressel, Schiano, Rodriguez, and Tedford are the others), but even with the friendly folks of Tuscaloosa, D-Mac and Jones should have their way. Arkansas 28 Alabama 20

Notre Dame @ Michigan: 0-2 v. 0-2. I have gone from picking the Maize and Blue to win all of their regular season games by roughly two touchdowns to taking them against Oregon by four TDs to sheepishly wondering if I should pick another UM game all season. Ah, but there’s always ND. The once-glorious (circa 1993) Fightin’ Irish boast an offensive resume with more sacks allowed than points scored. An otherwise meaningless game does merit intrigue if it pits Ryan Mallet of Michigan against "Jimmah" Clausen of Notre Dame—possibly, the first of three such matchups, presumably with more on the line in later years. Strange series, the last few years. UM has hammered ND (2003, 2006) or frittered away close games (2002, 2004, 2005) to the opportunistic Irish. RT2020 doesn’t see how the Weissers do any better against Mario Manningham then last year. If Michigan fails to net forty, more questions should be raised. Fifteen, though, will do it. Michigan 47 Notre Dame 21, hmmm... seen that one somewhere before.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Eastern Kentucky: Start the Show

Gentlemen, saddle up and destroy this team.

Analysis of Coach Rich Brooks (sigh) pregame presser follows:

"This is a very important game for us."

D___ straight, and not just to win either. Starting with Andre' Woodson the whole team needs to make it known that last year's Music City Bowl "championship" represented only the beginning.

On the Kentucky defense...
"I hope on third down they’ll be coming off the field and standing next to me on the sideline a little more often. I hope we’ll see a defense that’s more aggressive, tighter coverage, doing a better job of containing the running game, and just not spending as much time on the field. Those would be nice things to see."


Yeah, but Coach, we aren't in Gainesville (2006), Athens (2002), Tennessee (1998), or Baton Rouge (2006). In all honesty, UK has had issues with its defense since the 1950 Mythical (Thanks, Sagarin!!) National Championship team. Tim Couch could put up points under Hal Mumme's scheme and Artose Pinner could account for 2,000 total yards from scrimmage, yet the defense always, always rated as the worst feature of the football team. Not even Top 5 NFL draft choice Dewayne Robertson could lift the Cats out of the duldrums. In actuality, they ruined Dave Ragone's senior campaign at the 'Ville in '02, outside of that, well, let's not get into that Ohio University debacle. In lieu of championship athletes (even as the Kernel op-ed page likely still openly pines for K-State 1995-2003 tactics, i.e., the JUCO route), turnovers are a must. Forty-nine to nil beatdowns, not so much.

"I’m not certain what we’re going to see, to be honest."

Must resist jokes here. On another note, it shouldn't f______ matter, should it, sub-.500 career coach? Aaargh.

Woodson only bought you time, ex-NFL genius, do not embarrass the SEC by dropping this contest (or even letting EKU hang around), their "explosive" offense notwithstanding.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

2007 UK Prognostication

The Road to Further Respectability:

v. Eastern Kentucky
v. Kent State
v. Louisville
@ Arkansas
v. Florida Atlantic
@ South Carolina
v. LSU
v. Florida
v. Mississippi State
@ Vanderbilt
@ Georgia
v. Tennessee

Should win: EKU, KSU, FA, MSU

Excellent, four-and-oh, where do I sign up? Seriously, all four games are at home, and while Florida Atlantic may boast better athletes they're not as formidable on the road. Look for Andre' Woodson to boost his numbers against this contingent, especially early.

Could win: LOU, SoCaro, Vandy

Louisville has owned the Cats for some time now, but without Michael Bush, I think they are ripe for the picking, especially with Woodson, especially at home. On a personal note: I attended both South Carolina games in my four years, both times the crafty Lou Holtz pulled out a victory at night. I admire their defense a great deal, but UK should have a chance here. Vanderbilt, by a country mile, is the top academic school in the conference, which usually translates into football futility. Recently, however, they've made strides. True, this is a road game, but the All America quarterback can get it done here.

Underdog: ARK, TEN

Darren McFadden is probably worth tanking the 2006 NFL season for any number of teams with no shot to hold the Lombardi Trophy in February. He will return to New York for the Heisman ceremony (though he won't win it). Nonetheless, I don't see Arkansas reprising their near miracle run through the SEC; LSU and Florida delivered reality checks to close the year, and the Hogs even fell to the Mystery Men from Madison. It's a roadie, and D-Mac could run for 250 yards... at the end of three quarters. Still, UK has a credible shot here.

ESPN Radio's Colin Cowherd, blogosphere favorite, thinks Tennesee is treading backward, losing close games, underachieving, etc. I don't know if I agree, given how close the Vols were to upending Florida and their super performance down in Athens last year. Besides, UK is always an underdog in this "clash," but with the setting of Commonwealth Stadium there is no reason why UK shouldn't put up a real fight here.

Significant Underdog: LSU, FLA

Two weeks running, yikes. Fortunately, both are at home, where, alas, UK has a history (LSU 2001, 2002; FLA 2003) of honking winnable home games against the current top-two of the SEC. Both schools boast incredible speed and athleticism, but both are breaking in new QBs, though Tebow may not fit that description entirely. Woodson's Heisman campaign ends with these two games.

This Will Not End Well: GA

It will require substantial maturity for the Cats not to get taken behind the woodshed in Athens. Georgia looks to return to their 2002-2005 form, after an uneven run last year. Good thing: it is the penultimate game of the season, which means a thirty-point shellacking will not scar the team and spike an otherwise promising year. Bad thing: Tennessee is next, and UK may need that one for a New Year's Day bowl.

Forecast: I've haven't been this optimistic in years. Despite my antipathy toward Coach Brooks, this team may win nine games (or more) in spite of his inferior coaching. South Carolina and Arkansas are the two biggest games of the year, both are on hostile terrain, and both rank slightly above UK in the SEC pecking order. One win is an absolute must, two would probably rate a bowl upgrade.

v. Eastern Kentucky (+20)
v. Kent State (+14)
v. Louisville (-4)
@ Arkansas (+7)
v. Florida Atlantic (+15)
@ South Carolina (-10)
v. LSU (-21)
v. Florida (-13)
v. Mississippi State (+31)
@ Vanderbilt (+14)
@ Georgia (-35)
v. Tennessee (-3)

6-6. Ugh. What about all that "optimism"? Well, Louisville still has an advantage in pure talent, to say nothing of LSU and Florida--and those are home tilts. I like the Cats in Fayetteville, but not Columbia. Coach Spurrier's recruiting classes will prove just a step or two away from the SEC elite this season. I think Tennessee will disappoint the most, particulary since the Vols don't seem ticketed for a big year.

Will this warrant a bowl? I don't know, but it starkly illustrates the prodigious challenge ahead of UK Football even in a year with a possible All-SEC performer at QB and eight(!) home games. They might prove just a few plays away from 9-3, but I don't see enough right now to warrant a better year than the one prior.

Andre' Woodson: All America Quarterback

At least according to Ivan Maisel, senior CFB writer at the Worldwide Leader.

Grafs unscrupulously lifted from UK site follow:

"Woodson completed 63 percent of his passes last season, good for 3,515 yards and 31 touchdowns, while leading the Southeastern Conference in passing yardage, total offense, and TD passes. He guided the Wildcats to their best season in 22 years, including eight wins and a championship of the Music City Bowl, in which he was named the game’s Most Valuable Player. He enters the 2007 season with an active school-record streak of 162 consecutive passes without an interception."

RT2020: How do you know it's a UK press release? "Championship of the Music City Bowl" is a tell tale sign.

"That’s wonderful. I just hope he’s named that at the end of the year,' Coach Rich Brooks said. 'That would be wonderful. That would mean that he did well and we did well.'"

RT2020: This kid saved my job last season. I cannot believe I am still here. I cannot believe UK hired a sub-.500 record college coach whose most notable game commenced with an 80-yard TD run straight up the middle by All America Ki-Jana Carter in the 1994 Rose Bowl.

During my time as student (2001-04), unheralded tailback Artose Pinner provided some much needed pride to a football program sent reeling by the ignominious departure of once-touted Hal Mumme, the painful twin losses to LSU at home, and, ultimately, the resignation of another promising head coach, Guy Morriss, who left us for Baylor. I think that Andre' Woodson has provided similar excitement for his class of UK faithful. Pinner, most forget, earned 2002 SEC Player of the Year honors, forcibly taking the award from the 2001 Heisman Trophy runner-up.

Now, he's not going to win the Heisman Trophy, but Woodson should push for All-SEC honors, and maybe, just maybe, UK can finish a season ahead of all but two teams in the SEC Eastern division. Heck, that might make for a swell New Year's Day bowl treat with Ohio State.