1. Louisiana State (+4)
2. Georgia (-1)
3. Southern California (+1)
4. Missouri (+8)
5. West Virginia (+11)
6. Kansas (+4)
7. Auburn (+4)
8. Oklahoma (-5)
9. Tennessee (+4)
10. Virginia Tech (-4)
11. Ohio State (-9)
12. Michigan (+5)
13. Florida (-6)
14. Texas (NR)
15. Cincinnati (-9)
16. Illinois (-8)
17. Arizona State (-8)
18. Brigham Young (+1)
19. Boston College (+3)
20. Oregon (NR)
21. Oregon State (NR)
22. Penn State (+3)
23. Mississippi State (NR)
24. Clemson (-4)
25. Texas Tech (NR)
Just as I said way back when, the Bayou Bengals get it done! Their thirty-one point run was the difference, coupled with two killer OSU plays (the dropped TD pass and the roughing the punter), which obscured a banner night for Beanie Wells. Despite a 10-0 lead, Ohio State played an atrocious second quarter that bled a bit too far into the third. Even without their All-America safety, LSU's defense, whilst bending a bit, garnered sacks at key times and did not muff INT opportunities.
I offered that the SEC champs needed a two-touchdown victory to merit the title, and they got it.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Saturday, January 5, 2008
You Can Argue Against Ohio State...
but can you truly argue for anyone else?
Some have complained quietly and not-so quietly that Ohio State does not deserve to take the field in Monday's BCS Championship Game in N'Orleans. Colin Cowherd, an interesting host on ESPN Radio, made a good point about how the system loses when teams get rewarded for playing inferior competition. So, let's get a few things out of the way.
1) OSU played a Division I-AA or subdivision school in the form of Youngstown State, inexcusable, no doubt about it, which is why this game doesn't count in the BCS.
2) The Buckeyes toughest non-conference game, in a slate that included Akron, was a mid-afternoon tilt in Seattle, a team that could not defeat Hawaii and finished well off the pace in the Pac-10. Here is the dirty little secret: few in Columbus thought 2007 was a title-aspiring year, knowing that Troy Smith and others were on the way out, and, importantly, knowing odd-years mean trips to State College and Ann Arbor. Yes, I can fall under the label of "Buckeye homer" but I maintain you must grade OSU's schedule differently in odd-numbered years.
3) Ohio State lost AT HOME to a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog and second-place team in their conference that failed to defeat a weak Iowa team earlier in the year. It was only the self-destructive qualities of the Illini against Michigan that cost the Zookers a share of the conference crown.
In almost any other year, save perhaps 1990, this resume is nowhere near good enough to play for a title. Consider that in 2002 the Bucks defeated a quality opponent in Texas Tech, the co-Pac 10 champion (Wazzu State), in addition to their full Big 10 slate, net, 13-0. Last year they beat defending national champion Texas in Austin, plus #2 Michigan to close the season, net, 12-0. Ok, 2007 clearly doesn't measure up, and the home loss reeks of 1998, so we have made that clear. On the other hand?
In ascending order of merit, with final verdict*:
HAWAII (pre-Sugar Bowl embarrassment): Yes, Michigan could've played them, and yes, they head to Gainesville next season, so what. Their second-best win of the year was by seven, at home, to a less-healthy Washington team that Ohio State beat by nineteen in the Northwest. Are you going to tell me Boise State, again at home, is a better win than Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State? Did anyone play an easier schedule? ANYONE? If you pick this undefeated team you're also buying Tulane '98 over Florida State or even Boise State '06 over Florida.
VERDICT: Hell no. The question is whether the Rainbow Warriors even deserved a Top 25 ranking.
KANSAS (pre-Orange Bowl win): When a team played a significantly weaker strength of schedule than Ohio State, well, that doesn't say much for its chances. No Oklahoma, no Texas. They did beat Colorado in Boulder, but in their ONE huge game of the season they got smacked around by Missouri, and that was closer to a home game than a roadie. It was a better loss than OSU's, but the Buckeyes wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are better than KU's three best regular season wins.
VERDICT: Beat the teams it should, lost to the one it could have beat, did not schedule an OOC game even on the level of OSU/WSH, a firm no.
WEST VIRGINIA (pre-Fiesta Bowl domination): Let's begin by saying their non-conference schedule did include a game against the SEC. Good. Yet, the disappearance of South Florida from the national picture really hurts them here, the Bulls didn't even come close to the conference crown after reaching #2 in the polls at one point. And after a severe thrashing of UCONN the week prior, a 9-13 "L" at the hands of a non-bowl Pittsburgh team, AT HOME, requires a word stronger than "choke" and I have none for the occasion. Once again, two losses, and the last one much worse than Ohio State's and Oklahoma's to Colorado.
VERDICT: No team since Oklahoma '01 soiled themselves at a more inopportune time and I don't care if Patrick White had to leave the game, they only needed ONE MORE TOUCHDOWN!!!, an easy no.
VIRGINIA TECH (pre-Orange Bowl loss): Really? You're telling me the ACC is that much rougher than the Big 10, honestly? And do teams that lose 7-45, even if on the road to the eventual #2, deserve title shots? Ohio State lost by seven, in a game influenced by a terrible non-fumble in the first quarter, and never felt threatened deep into the fourth in any of their other games. Furthermore, the Hokies choked at home against Matt Ryan and the Golden Eagles, or they would have likely earned a rematch against LSU.
VERDICT: No, but credit to playing LSU at Tiger Stadium, yet you need to do better than a thirty-eight point loss, and while this season you could lose at home, to do so AND get blown out of the road, no, irrespective of the computers.
OKLAHOMA (pre-Fiesta Bowl calamity): I love the two wins over Missouri, even before the Tigers shredded Arkansas, Texas wasn't terrible this year either. On the other hand, while we can paper over the loss in Lubbock due to Sam Bradford's concussion (maybe), what do we say of the debacle in Boulder? Did you see Colorado in a bowl game this season? This also wasn't an out of conference tilt, but a non-division game, played against a struggling program. Bottom line: a worse loss than OSU's to Illinois and the extra loss kills their candidacy.
VERDICT: Close, but no. Two losses, neither to a team playing in a major bowl game is just not going to get it done, 24-7 in Boulder, boys, 24-7 in Boulder.
MISSOURI (pre-Cotton Bowl triumph): I love the SEC and Big 10 OOC tilts, especially since the Big 10 team DID beat Ohio State. Two losses stings but both were to OU--and they beat Kansas on neutral/unfriendly ground. I guess there is one way to answer this, if the Bucks drew the Sooners in Norman and in San Antonio, could they win either game? The odds are reasonable, but the late loss (decisively too) is the difference.
VERDICT: Very close, but no. Excellent resume, just needed a split with OU and couldn't get it.
GEORGIA (pre-Sugar Bowl walloping): I had them #1 before their bowl game and they didn't disappoint, perhaps the hottest team in America and the only one to convincingly defeat Florida. Still, South Carolina, as noted before in this space, did them no favors late in the year, and the atrocious performance in Knoxville killed their title hopes. A win over the Vols would have drawn them LSU and possibly given them another huge win. Also, despite the powerful SEC, no nice OOC win (Tempe comes next autumn), and no division title.
VERDICT: Toss-up, would they beat OSU? Yes. Does that erase the stigma of a 0-35 deficit to Tennessee and a home loss to a conference foe that collapsed? Georgia Tech fell away too, give me the Bucks, no for the Dawgs.
USC (pre-Rose Bowl smashing): Let's make one thing clear, if they beat Stanford, no one has a problem with their title game presence, only question is whether OSU or LSU plays them. The loss to Oregon in Eugene to a healthy Dennis Dixon, once a Heisman frontrunner, is better than any of the other losses in consideration. Although Cal disappeared, the Pac-10 still had a good year, and the Trojans went 5-1 on the road to include the always rowdy Sun Devil Stadium. Notre Dame didn't help them, though. You have to love Coach Pete Carroll's fearlessness (okay, maybe not in the case of Idaho--but look at 2008) and the six road games. The enormous question: does a team that would likely take Ohio State still deserve to jump them with a FORTY-POINT FAVORED HOME LOSS TO A NON-BOWL TEAM A WEEK PRIOR TO PLAYING ANOTHER NON-BOWL TEAM? In other words, Michigan may have looked ahead to Oregon whilst playing Appy State, what was Troy's excuse???
VERDICT: Stanford beat a deflated Cal, yet did nothing else the rest of the year, to include losing to an Irish team that fell AT HOME to Air Force and (gasp) Navy. I don't care if John David Booty's finger or injuries and inexperience permitted a BACK-UP QB to hit multiple fourth-down passes to end it 24-23, Cardinal--in the COLISEUM!!! I'm sorry, you are a bona fide dynasty, but the Stanford loss coupled with a tough one at Autzen doesn't give you much of an argument, even if a better one than anyone else.
Conclusions...
Hawaii, Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma clearly lose the argument, at least to my mind. Missouri, Georgia, and USC do have a case, but for reasons aforementioned it is not a particularly good one, even for the latter two schools. In fact, USC '02 had a better argument against OSU '02, due to two close road losses to two very good teams in a vicious schedule to include a good Notre Dame team, then in the present.
Everyone had holes this year, no major school went undefeated and no major school with one-loss had a better track-record than Ohio State. Are some two loss schools better? Yes, perhaps one, perhaps three, perhaps five, did ANY of them clearly earn the bid over the Bucks?
The fair-minded would say, no. Put simply, Ohio State could not have chosen a better year to lose a home game, not in the past and realistically not in the future. Virginia Tech, Georgia, and USC all lost home games plus a road game. It was the most remarkable year at the top, in terms of chaos, we are likely to ever see. But who knows, truly, what 2008 will bring?
*LSU was not considered because folks view them as the de facto #1 team by way of their favored status over Ohio State and because they only rank below the Buckeyes because they lost their second game later, and again in triple overtime, even if AT HOME.
Some have complained quietly and not-so quietly that Ohio State does not deserve to take the field in Monday's BCS Championship Game in N'Orleans. Colin Cowherd, an interesting host on ESPN Radio, made a good point about how the system loses when teams get rewarded for playing inferior competition. So, let's get a few things out of the way.
1) OSU played a Division I-AA or subdivision school in the form of Youngstown State, inexcusable, no doubt about it, which is why this game doesn't count in the BCS.
2) The Buckeyes toughest non-conference game, in a slate that included Akron, was a mid-afternoon tilt in Seattle, a team that could not defeat Hawaii and finished well off the pace in the Pac-10. Here is the dirty little secret: few in Columbus thought 2007 was a title-aspiring year, knowing that Troy Smith and others were on the way out, and, importantly, knowing odd-years mean trips to State College and Ann Arbor. Yes, I can fall under the label of "Buckeye homer" but I maintain you must grade OSU's schedule differently in odd-numbered years.
3) Ohio State lost AT HOME to a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog and second-place team in their conference that failed to defeat a weak Iowa team earlier in the year. It was only the self-destructive qualities of the Illini against Michigan that cost the Zookers a share of the conference crown.
In almost any other year, save perhaps 1990, this resume is nowhere near good enough to play for a title. Consider that in 2002 the Bucks defeated a quality opponent in Texas Tech, the co-Pac 10 champion (Wazzu State), in addition to their full Big 10 slate, net, 13-0. Last year they beat defending national champion Texas in Austin, plus #2 Michigan to close the season, net, 12-0. Ok, 2007 clearly doesn't measure up, and the home loss reeks of 1998, so we have made that clear. On the other hand?
In ascending order of merit, with final verdict*:
HAWAII (pre-Sugar Bowl embarrassment): Yes, Michigan could've played them, and yes, they head to Gainesville next season, so what. Their second-best win of the year was by seven, at home, to a less-healthy Washington team that Ohio State beat by nineteen in the Northwest. Are you going to tell me Boise State, again at home, is a better win than Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State? Did anyone play an easier schedule? ANYONE? If you pick this undefeated team you're also buying Tulane '98 over Florida State or even Boise State '06 over Florida.
VERDICT: Hell no. The question is whether the Rainbow Warriors even deserved a Top 25 ranking.
KANSAS (pre-Orange Bowl win): When a team played a significantly weaker strength of schedule than Ohio State, well, that doesn't say much for its chances. No Oklahoma, no Texas. They did beat Colorado in Boulder, but in their ONE huge game of the season they got smacked around by Missouri, and that was closer to a home game than a roadie. It was a better loss than OSU's, but the Buckeyes wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are better than KU's three best regular season wins.
VERDICT: Beat the teams it should, lost to the one it could have beat, did not schedule an OOC game even on the level of OSU/WSH, a firm no.
WEST VIRGINIA (pre-Fiesta Bowl domination): Let's begin by saying their non-conference schedule did include a game against the SEC. Good. Yet, the disappearance of South Florida from the national picture really hurts them here, the Bulls didn't even come close to the conference crown after reaching #2 in the polls at one point. And after a severe thrashing of UCONN the week prior, a 9-13 "L" at the hands of a non-bowl Pittsburgh team, AT HOME, requires a word stronger than "choke" and I have none for the occasion. Once again, two losses, and the last one much worse than Ohio State's and Oklahoma's to Colorado.
VERDICT: No team since Oklahoma '01 soiled themselves at a more inopportune time and I don't care if Patrick White had to leave the game, they only needed ONE MORE TOUCHDOWN!!!, an easy no.
VIRGINIA TECH (pre-Orange Bowl loss): Really? You're telling me the ACC is that much rougher than the Big 10, honestly? And do teams that lose 7-45, even if on the road to the eventual #2, deserve title shots? Ohio State lost by seven, in a game influenced by a terrible non-fumble in the first quarter, and never felt threatened deep into the fourth in any of their other games. Furthermore, the Hokies choked at home against Matt Ryan and the Golden Eagles, or they would have likely earned a rematch against LSU.
VERDICT: No, but credit to playing LSU at Tiger Stadium, yet you need to do better than a thirty-eight point loss, and while this season you could lose at home, to do so AND get blown out of the road, no, irrespective of the computers.
OKLAHOMA (pre-Fiesta Bowl calamity): I love the two wins over Missouri, even before the Tigers shredded Arkansas, Texas wasn't terrible this year either. On the other hand, while we can paper over the loss in Lubbock due to Sam Bradford's concussion (maybe), what do we say of the debacle in Boulder? Did you see Colorado in a bowl game this season? This also wasn't an out of conference tilt, but a non-division game, played against a struggling program. Bottom line: a worse loss than OSU's to Illinois and the extra loss kills their candidacy.
VERDICT: Close, but no. Two losses, neither to a team playing in a major bowl game is just not going to get it done, 24-7 in Boulder, boys, 24-7 in Boulder.
MISSOURI (pre-Cotton Bowl triumph): I love the SEC and Big 10 OOC tilts, especially since the Big 10 team DID beat Ohio State. Two losses stings but both were to OU--and they beat Kansas on neutral/unfriendly ground. I guess there is one way to answer this, if the Bucks drew the Sooners in Norman and in San Antonio, could they win either game? The odds are reasonable, but the late loss (decisively too) is the difference.
VERDICT: Very close, but no. Excellent resume, just needed a split with OU and couldn't get it.
GEORGIA (pre-Sugar Bowl walloping): I had them #1 before their bowl game and they didn't disappoint, perhaps the hottest team in America and the only one to convincingly defeat Florida. Still, South Carolina, as noted before in this space, did them no favors late in the year, and the atrocious performance in Knoxville killed their title hopes. A win over the Vols would have drawn them LSU and possibly given them another huge win. Also, despite the powerful SEC, no nice OOC win (Tempe comes next autumn), and no division title.
VERDICT: Toss-up, would they beat OSU? Yes. Does that erase the stigma of a 0-35 deficit to Tennessee and a home loss to a conference foe that collapsed? Georgia Tech fell away too, give me the Bucks, no for the Dawgs.
USC (pre-Rose Bowl smashing): Let's make one thing clear, if they beat Stanford, no one has a problem with their title game presence, only question is whether OSU or LSU plays them. The loss to Oregon in Eugene to a healthy Dennis Dixon, once a Heisman frontrunner, is better than any of the other losses in consideration. Although Cal disappeared, the Pac-10 still had a good year, and the Trojans went 5-1 on the road to include the always rowdy Sun Devil Stadium. Notre Dame didn't help them, though. You have to love Coach Pete Carroll's fearlessness (okay, maybe not in the case of Idaho--but look at 2008) and the six road games. The enormous question: does a team that would likely take Ohio State still deserve to jump them with a FORTY-POINT FAVORED HOME LOSS TO A NON-BOWL TEAM A WEEK PRIOR TO PLAYING ANOTHER NON-BOWL TEAM? In other words, Michigan may have looked ahead to Oregon whilst playing Appy State, what was Troy's excuse???
VERDICT: Stanford beat a deflated Cal, yet did nothing else the rest of the year, to include losing to an Irish team that fell AT HOME to Air Force and (gasp) Navy. I don't care if John David Booty's finger or injuries and inexperience permitted a BACK-UP QB to hit multiple fourth-down passes to end it 24-23, Cardinal--in the COLISEUM!!! I'm sorry, you are a bona fide dynasty, but the Stanford loss coupled with a tough one at Autzen doesn't give you much of an argument, even if a better one than anyone else.
Conclusions...
Hawaii, Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma clearly lose the argument, at least to my mind. Missouri, Georgia, and USC do have a case, but for reasons aforementioned it is not a particularly good one, even for the latter two schools. In fact, USC '02 had a better argument against OSU '02, due to two close road losses to two very good teams in a vicious schedule to include a good Notre Dame team, then in the present.
Everyone had holes this year, no major school went undefeated and no major school with one-loss had a better track-record than Ohio State. Are some two loss schools better? Yes, perhaps one, perhaps three, perhaps five, did ANY of them clearly earn the bid over the Bucks?
The fair-minded would say, no. Put simply, Ohio State could not have chosen a better year to lose a home game, not in the past and realistically not in the future. Virginia Tech, Georgia, and USC all lost home games plus a road game. It was the most remarkable year at the top, in terms of chaos, we are likely to ever see. But who knows, truly, what 2008 will bring?
*LSU was not considered because folks view them as the de facto #1 team by way of their favored status over Ohio State and because they only rank below the Buckeyes because they lost their second game later, and again in triple overtime, even if AT HOME.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Dawgs Steamroll Brennan, Warriors
Memo to the BCS: just because a team finishes undefeated does not mean they warrant a glitzy bowl selection, particularly against the best team in the country, apologies to USC. I still don't like the Dawgs Road to Miami next year, but unless Florida's defense matures over the summer (likely) they have a better shot than I thought last week. Knowshon Moreno is more than ready to assume D-Mac's throne as the SEC's best running back and if Matthew Stafford can survive some tough road games (specifically, Columbia and Tempe), at minimum Goarja will draw a return trip to the Sugar Bowl.
Enough, however, of this nonsense that UGA deserved to play in the Not Sugar. Their loss at the hands of a mediocre Tennessee bunch proved embarrassing and South Carolina's collapse didn't say much about the early season Dawgs. If major college football had a playoff, then yes Mark Richt's team would deserve a high seed. But we do not, which means schools must not lose to inferior teams and expect a shot at the crystal football.
The question for voters is whether USC or Georgia will finish #2. The Trojans beat a much-better Illinois team (Zooker's guys were in the game for a time, until the turnovers that never materialized in Columbus began sprouting all over the USC 15-yard line) with far more pure talent (Rashard Mendenhall, please hire an agent). Hawaii escaped several weak teams earlier this season and relied heavily upon a potential NFL quarterback to keep them afloat. Problem is, as Buckeye fans know all too well, the game is won and lost up front.
Georgia's defense is nasty, but their inability to handle the Volunteers offense in Knoxville killed their dream of winning the school's first national title since 1980. Silver lining: they remain in line to capture the first ever RT2020 championship, needing only an LSU win under two touchdowns to lay claim.
Enough, however, of this nonsense that UGA deserved to play in the Not Sugar. Their loss at the hands of a mediocre Tennessee bunch proved embarrassing and South Carolina's collapse didn't say much about the early season Dawgs. If major college football had a playoff, then yes Mark Richt's team would deserve a high seed. But we do not, which means schools must not lose to inferior teams and expect a shot at the crystal football.
The question for voters is whether USC or Georgia will finish #2. The Trojans beat a much-better Illinois team (Zooker's guys were in the game for a time, until the turnovers that never materialized in Columbus began sprouting all over the USC 15-yard line) with far more pure talent (Rashard Mendenhall, please hire an agent). Hawaii escaped several weak teams earlier this season and relied heavily upon a potential NFL quarterback to keep them afloat. Problem is, as Buckeye fans know all too well, the game is won and lost up front.
Georgia's defense is nasty, but their inability to handle the Volunteers offense in Knoxville killed their dream of winning the school's first national title since 1980. Silver lining: they remain in line to capture the first ever RT2020 championship, needing only an LSU win under two touchdowns to lay claim.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Thoughts on an 8-5 Finish
As summer crept to a close, I projected 6-6, which means that this team slightly exceeded my expectations, thanks largely to inspired quarterback play from #3. Once again, to no one's surprise the coaching limitations of Rich Brooks, especially in Columbia, prevented a real chance at the school's first ten-win season since 1977. After defeating then-#1 LSU in a game to remember in Lexington, the defense received a shredding at the hands of Tim Tebow and did not give a slow-starting Woodson enough time to dig the Cats out of the hole.
Yes, the SEC is a vicious conference, but consecutive 8-5 finishes should never gain acceptance as the pinnacle of a university's achievement, unless at a genuine student-athlete locale such as Vanderbilt. With the departure of Woodson to the NFL, where will Coach Brooks, assuming he is not wooed by the Baltimore Ravens, find the players and schemes to avoid a return to the sad-sack campaigns of 2004 and 2005?
Color me skeptical, though, I would prove satisfied with another 8-5 year (and bowl win against a decimated opponent) if it came with the development of a young QB who would hopefully have the Wildcats in contention (ha!) for 2009.
Player of the Year: Not close, despite some progress at RB and WR, it was Woodson's team and he played as well as most not from Columbia (Missouri, this time) and Gainesville.
Moment of the Year: The TD pass in the waning moments to stun Louisville and send the post-Petrino Cards into a well-deserved tail spin.
Egg of the Year: The uninspired loss to Syl Croom's good Mississippi State team, because it was at home and ended any possibility to make the dream game in Atlanta.
Predictable losses: v. FLA, @ UGA
Rich Brooks: C-, the fortunate wins over Louisville and Louisiana State would make a lower ranking unsightly, nonetheless, this was his best team since the 1994 Oregon Ducks, and finishing with the same record as last year does not merit the same approval as last year with the same personnel. Where was the improvement? Florida had to break in a new defense, Tennessee remains mired in conference mediocrity, yet UK fell to both at home, failing to force a Tebow turnover and fouling up things in OT in the finale.
Andre' Woodson finished exceptionally strong against a good but thinned-down Florida State defense, and, per usual, the defense could not stop the opponent on the ground. Next year does not bode well. Without even looking at the schedule, only knowing roadies to FLA and TEN plus UGA's return to the Commonwealth (not to mention a reasonably improved LOU team and another SoCaro escape in Lexington), 4-8 is quite likely. It is likelier to turn out worse than that.
If that occurs, or if the last five games don't produce those four wins, then Mitch Barnhardt has to look elsewhere, and, say, hire a coach with a WINNING RECORD!!! I vote for Ron Engish, former defensive coordinator at the University of Michigan, and, yes, a minority candidate. We did it in basketball, why not football? The job of the next coach is to at least mitigate the ferocious damage done week after week in the trenches, pretty much ever since DeWayne Robertson took his talent to the NFL.
Best of luck to the great Andre' Woodson, a sure-fire first day selection at this point, and possibly first round material if he can impress at the combine. I think he will start some games at the next level.
Yes, the SEC is a vicious conference, but consecutive 8-5 finishes should never gain acceptance as the pinnacle of a university's achievement, unless at a genuine student-athlete locale such as Vanderbilt. With the departure of Woodson to the NFL, where will Coach Brooks, assuming he is not wooed by the Baltimore Ravens, find the players and schemes to avoid a return to the sad-sack campaigns of 2004 and 2005?
Color me skeptical, though, I would prove satisfied with another 8-5 year (and bowl win against a decimated opponent) if it came with the development of a young QB who would hopefully have the Wildcats in contention (ha!) for 2009.
Player of the Year: Not close, despite some progress at RB and WR, it was Woodson's team and he played as well as most not from Columbia (Missouri, this time) and Gainesville.
Moment of the Year: The TD pass in the waning moments to stun Louisville and send the post-Petrino Cards into a well-deserved tail spin.
Egg of the Year: The uninspired loss to Syl Croom's good Mississippi State team, because it was at home and ended any possibility to make the dream game in Atlanta.
Predictable losses: v. FLA, @ UGA
Rich Brooks: C-, the fortunate wins over Louisville and Louisiana State would make a lower ranking unsightly, nonetheless, this was his best team since the 1994 Oregon Ducks, and finishing with the same record as last year does not merit the same approval as last year with the same personnel. Where was the improvement? Florida had to break in a new defense, Tennessee remains mired in conference mediocrity, yet UK fell to both at home, failing to force a Tebow turnover and fouling up things in OT in the finale.
Andre' Woodson finished exceptionally strong against a good but thinned-down Florida State defense, and, per usual, the defense could not stop the opponent on the ground. Next year does not bode well. Without even looking at the schedule, only knowing roadies to FLA and TEN plus UGA's return to the Commonwealth (not to mention a reasonably improved LOU team and another SoCaro escape in Lexington), 4-8 is quite likely. It is likelier to turn out worse than that.
If that occurs, or if the last five games don't produce those four wins, then Mitch Barnhardt has to look elsewhere, and, say, hire a coach with a WINNING RECORD!!! I vote for Ron Engish, former defensive coordinator at the University of Michigan, and, yes, a minority candidate. We did it in basketball, why not football? The job of the next coach is to at least mitigate the ferocious damage done week after week in the trenches, pretty much ever since DeWayne Robertson took his talent to the NFL.
Best of luck to the great Andre' Woodson, a sure-fire first day selection at this point, and possibly first round material if he can impress at the combine. I think he will start some games at the next level.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
And Your 2008 National Champs Are...
Last year, on a now-defunct blog, I boldly predicted, before their dismantling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, the 2007 national champion: LSU. I picked the Bayou Bengals irrespective of projected first-round draft choice losses to include their star quarterback due to a perceived friendly schedule buttressed by a virtual home-game in the BCS Championship.
Looking pretty good right about now. Yes, it took some resistance to the massive, heavily-overblown hype emanating from Los Angeles, but I stuck to my guns, and even predicted a two-loss season for the USC Trojans. Also, correct. Obviously, I didn't foresee two losses for the Tigers, particularly the last one, at home, to Arkansas, but this season proved the one for such a resume. Now, for all my USC criticism, I actually like them quite a bit next season, provided they beat the Buckeyes in a huge September game at the Coliseum.
All of the rough roadies (Eugene, Tempe) are home games and if Notre Dame has improved at all, that one is also in Los Angeles. Arizona State might improve some more, Oregon is headed for a fall, NO ONE should trust California, Washington will get better, Oregon State never starts out quickly enough, and it's very hard to see another 8-1 team in the Pac-10. Stanford? Jim Harbaugh's team will likely make strides too, but if they finish 6-3 in conference play, well, he should win Coach of the Year honors.
Mark Sanchez, now a little older (presumably, he stays heathly) emerges as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate to battle Ohio State's Chris Wells and of course the defending champion from Gainesville, plus the prodigious depth and newfound experience of their wide receivers. I would expect the defense, whilst losing some key players, to continue to have little trouble in conference play and likely with Todd Boeckman (unless the latter comes up big in the Not Sugar).
Their Road to the Not Orange (along with RT2020 spread):
@ Virginia (-13)
v. Ohio State (-9)
@ Oregon State (-5)
v. Oregon (-18)
v. Arizona State (-14)
@ Washington State (-20)
@ Arizona (-14)
v. Washington (-4)
v. California (-21)
@ Stanford (-20)
v. Notre Dame (-24)
@ UCLA (-13)
A solid favorite in every matchup, pending, once again, the result of Ohio State's game against LSU. If the Buckeyes win, that game in LA is a toss up, if not slightly more than a touchdown. I actually think U-Dub, with Locker a year older, could pose the most significant threat, particularly because USC might overlook them if California is off to a nice start. Their first three tilts, however, are brutal. USC's last trip to Corvallis ended with a loss, but I can easily see the Trojans still winning comfortably. Once more, six road clashes, which we should commend, but not as unruly as 2007 (even if NEB and ND fell on their faces). After smashing Illinois, they will have a haunting memory of the Stanford game that cost them a chance to beat Ohio State... unless of course all the media outlets again go gaga over this team and project them to beat 1995 Nebraska.
Twelve-and-oh, mark it down. So, who will they play? A rematch with Ohio State is not out of the question (the Bucks host both Penn State and Michigan), if the game is close and the Big 10 fields at least one other ten-win team. I don't think so, however, as I think the other slot to the Orange is coming out of the SEC (of course).
And that team is the one with the best player and the best coach in America.
The Gator Slate:
v. Hawaii (-27)
v. Miami (-30)
@ Tennessee (-10)
v. Ole Miss (-31)
@ Arkansas (-24)
v. LSU (-13)
v. Kentucky (-30)
n. Georgia (-3)
@ Vanderbilt (-21)
v. South Carolina (-7)
v. Citadel (-45)
@ Florida State (-27)
n. Auburn (-17, projected SEC West opponent in Atlanta)
Hurrah, no Auburn! And just four road games. The early test in Knoxville should tell the tale. Tennessee, utterly trashed by #15 in 2007, will show some pride next season--but I'm not persuaded that the Vols, ten years removed from their last conference championship, are good enough to beat Florida. The Gators will have a more experienced defense, a better Percy Harvin, and perhaps (finally) a true running back to take some pressure off Tebow. Sans Colt Brennan, even a Rainbow Warrior team that clips Georgia will have no chance at the Swamp. The battle with Georgia will determine control of the SEC East and perhaps the national title race, which will hinge on whether the Gator defense has stiffened enough not to allow Georgia's sensational sophomore tailback, echoes of Walker and Hearst, to run through them again. LSU will drop, UK will plummet, good year to play Miami, but watch out for the crafty OBC late in the year. The Citadel game, alone, gives USC's schedule a big edge, and the absence of Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama leave this slate highly likely to finish with nary a blemish.
Thirteen-and-oh, and at least another NYC trip for Tim Tebow. Barring a total calamity in the Capital One, I will place Florida at #1 in the 2008 preseason poll, if this blog runs that far. It is possible even a loss to Georgia, provided the Dawgs fall twice in the SEC, wouldn't keep Florida out of their first Orange Bowl since 2001. Seven years prior to next season, in Steve Spurrier's last campaign, the Mighty Gators also opened at #1, and as mentioned previously, no Auburn to ruin things... at least not until Championship Saturday.
Bottom line: Unless the Superhero QB goes down for an extended time in at least one game, this team has 70/30 odds to run the table and perhaps 80/20 to reach Miami. FLA's offense will rate as the country's best, which means an improved D will only need to keep one team (UGA) below twenty-four. Given the coaching abilities of Meyer, his team should complete just the second undefeated SEC run since 1998 (Auburn, of course, 2004).
So, Florida #1, USC #2, what about anyone else? Or is this a reprisal of 2004-05, when the top two team stayed 1-2 all season long? We briefly referenced Georgia as perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Gators, what of their schedule?
v. Georgia Southern (-31)
v. Central Michigan (-24)
@ South Carolina (Even)
@ Arizona State!!! (-3)
v. Alabama (-8)
Bye
v. Tennessee (-14)
v. Vanderbilt (-21)
@ LSU (Even)
n. Florida (+3)
@ Kentucky (-30)
@ Auburn (Even)
Bye
v. Georgia Tech (-17)
At first glance, too difficult. How about that two-week quinella of Columbia and Tempe? Yikes. The game with SoCaro, especially since the OBC rolled into town, is always a vicious contest with few touchdowns. I suspect ASU will drop off, but I maintain winning on the road, presumably this one will take place under the lights, in Sun Devil Stadium is one the toughest tests for any team, Pac-10 or otherwise. Then come Alabama and a revenge match against the Vols. After a semi-breather against Vandy (don't get caught looking ahead!) the monster showdowns occur at the Rouge and J'ville. If that wasn't enough, Auburn lurks toward the end. Verdict: 10-2 if they're lucky, but a win over Florida would likely send them to Atlanta so long as they lost only one SEC contest. Unless the defense truly raises their level of play and they can get consistent play from signal-caller Matt Stafford, not a viable championship game threat, though probably a return trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Top 5 ranking in the final Bowl Championship Series.
Oklahoma? Yes, a real threat, and a bit of a break in not seeing Missouri in the regular season--even though the Sooners own them for all intents and purposes. I cannot find their complete schedule, but a 12-1 season is well within reach, possibly more if Sam Bradford continues his improvement.
Finally, a dark horse candidate in Morgantown, especially if Terry Bowden ends up the next coach at West Virginia. If Steve Slaton and Patrick White remain, plus Noel Devine, don't but it past the new boss. Remember Auburn '93? Then-new coach Bowden rode Patrick Nix, Stephen Davis, and Frank Sanders to an 11-0 mark punctuated by enormous wins over Florida (the SEC champ) and Alabama (bitter rival and SEC West champ) despite probation. He could do it again. The biggest problem is Auburn, the first game for the Mountaineers of 2008. The entire schedule does look inviting, with a possible danger in Boulder. A dark horse, but with the right coach, a threat nonetheless.
Super-Early Top 5:
1. Florida (14-0)
2. Southern California (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (13-1)
4. Georgia (11-3)
5. Ohio State (11-2)
BCS Championship: #1 Florida v. #2 USC = FLA 41 USC 28
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma v. Georgia (at-large) = OU 19 UGA 7
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia = VT 31 WVA 24
Fiesta Bowl: Illinois (at-large) v. Missouri (at-large) = ILL 21 MIZZ 10
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Arizona State (at-large) = OSU 24 ASU 23
Super-Early Top 5 Heisman:
1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (if 13-0, will not be denied a second trophy)
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (chance if UGA beats FLA)
3. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State (needs huge game at USC)
4. Patrick White, QB, West Virginia (last chance for WVA to fulfill promise)
5. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (your 2009 winner?)
Looking pretty good right about now. Yes, it took some resistance to the massive, heavily-overblown hype emanating from Los Angeles, but I stuck to my guns, and even predicted a two-loss season for the USC Trojans. Also, correct. Obviously, I didn't foresee two losses for the Tigers, particularly the last one, at home, to Arkansas, but this season proved the one for such a resume. Now, for all my USC criticism, I actually like them quite a bit next season, provided they beat the Buckeyes in a huge September game at the Coliseum.
All of the rough roadies (Eugene, Tempe) are home games and if Notre Dame has improved at all, that one is also in Los Angeles. Arizona State might improve some more, Oregon is headed for a fall, NO ONE should trust California, Washington will get better, Oregon State never starts out quickly enough, and it's very hard to see another 8-1 team in the Pac-10. Stanford? Jim Harbaugh's team will likely make strides too, but if they finish 6-3 in conference play, well, he should win Coach of the Year honors.
Mark Sanchez, now a little older (presumably, he stays heathly) emerges as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate to battle Ohio State's Chris Wells and of course the defending champion from Gainesville, plus the prodigious depth and newfound experience of their wide receivers. I would expect the defense, whilst losing some key players, to continue to have little trouble in conference play and likely with Todd Boeckman (unless the latter comes up big in the Not Sugar).
Their Road to the Not Orange (along with RT2020 spread):
@ Virginia (-13)
v. Ohio State (-9)
@ Oregon State (-5)
v. Oregon (-18)
v. Arizona State (-14)
@ Washington State (-20)
@ Arizona (-14)
v. Washington (-4)
v. California (-21)
@ Stanford (-20)
v. Notre Dame (-24)
@ UCLA (-13)
A solid favorite in every matchup, pending, once again, the result of Ohio State's game against LSU. If the Buckeyes win, that game in LA is a toss up, if not slightly more than a touchdown. I actually think U-Dub, with Locker a year older, could pose the most significant threat, particularly because USC might overlook them if California is off to a nice start. Their first three tilts, however, are brutal. USC's last trip to Corvallis ended with a loss, but I can easily see the Trojans still winning comfortably. Once more, six road clashes, which we should commend, but not as unruly as 2007 (even if NEB and ND fell on their faces). After smashing Illinois, they will have a haunting memory of the Stanford game that cost them a chance to beat Ohio State... unless of course all the media outlets again go gaga over this team and project them to beat 1995 Nebraska.
Twelve-and-oh, mark it down. So, who will they play? A rematch with Ohio State is not out of the question (the Bucks host both Penn State and Michigan), if the game is close and the Big 10 fields at least one other ten-win team. I don't think so, however, as I think the other slot to the Orange is coming out of the SEC (of course).
And that team is the one with the best player and the best coach in America.
The Gator Slate:
v. Hawaii (-27)
v. Miami (-30)
@ Tennessee (-10)
v. Ole Miss (-31)
@ Arkansas (-24)
v. LSU (-13)
v. Kentucky (-30)
n. Georgia (-3)
@ Vanderbilt (-21)
v. South Carolina (-7)
v. Citadel (-45)
@ Florida State (-27)
n. Auburn (-17, projected SEC West opponent in Atlanta)
Hurrah, no Auburn! And just four road games. The early test in Knoxville should tell the tale. Tennessee, utterly trashed by #15 in 2007, will show some pride next season--but I'm not persuaded that the Vols, ten years removed from their last conference championship, are good enough to beat Florida. The Gators will have a more experienced defense, a better Percy Harvin, and perhaps (finally) a true running back to take some pressure off Tebow. Sans Colt Brennan, even a Rainbow Warrior team that clips Georgia will have no chance at the Swamp. The battle with Georgia will determine control of the SEC East and perhaps the national title race, which will hinge on whether the Gator defense has stiffened enough not to allow Georgia's sensational sophomore tailback, echoes of Walker and Hearst, to run through them again. LSU will drop, UK will plummet, good year to play Miami, but watch out for the crafty OBC late in the year. The Citadel game, alone, gives USC's schedule a big edge, and the absence of Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama leave this slate highly likely to finish with nary a blemish.
Thirteen-and-oh, and at least another NYC trip for Tim Tebow. Barring a total calamity in the Capital One, I will place Florida at #1 in the 2008 preseason poll, if this blog runs that far. It is possible even a loss to Georgia, provided the Dawgs fall twice in the SEC, wouldn't keep Florida out of their first Orange Bowl since 2001. Seven years prior to next season, in Steve Spurrier's last campaign, the Mighty Gators also opened at #1, and as mentioned previously, no Auburn to ruin things... at least not until Championship Saturday.
Bottom line: Unless the Superhero QB goes down for an extended time in at least one game, this team has 70/30 odds to run the table and perhaps 80/20 to reach Miami. FLA's offense will rate as the country's best, which means an improved D will only need to keep one team (UGA) below twenty-four. Given the coaching abilities of Meyer, his team should complete just the second undefeated SEC run since 1998 (Auburn, of course, 2004).
So, Florida #1, USC #2, what about anyone else? Or is this a reprisal of 2004-05, when the top two team stayed 1-2 all season long? We briefly referenced Georgia as perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Gators, what of their schedule?
v. Georgia Southern (-31)
v. Central Michigan (-24)
@ South Carolina (Even)
@ Arizona State!!! (-3)
v. Alabama (-8)
Bye
v. Tennessee (-14)
v. Vanderbilt (-21)
@ LSU (Even)
n. Florida (+3)
@ Kentucky (-30)
@ Auburn (Even)
Bye
v. Georgia Tech (-17)
At first glance, too difficult. How about that two-week quinella of Columbia and Tempe? Yikes. The game with SoCaro, especially since the OBC rolled into town, is always a vicious contest with few touchdowns. I suspect ASU will drop off, but I maintain winning on the road, presumably this one will take place under the lights, in Sun Devil Stadium is one the toughest tests for any team, Pac-10 or otherwise. Then come Alabama and a revenge match against the Vols. After a semi-breather against Vandy (don't get caught looking ahead!) the monster showdowns occur at the Rouge and J'ville. If that wasn't enough, Auburn lurks toward the end. Verdict: 10-2 if they're lucky, but a win over Florida would likely send them to Atlanta so long as they lost only one SEC contest. Unless the defense truly raises their level of play and they can get consistent play from signal-caller Matt Stafford, not a viable championship game threat, though probably a return trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Top 5 ranking in the final Bowl Championship Series.
Oklahoma? Yes, a real threat, and a bit of a break in not seeing Missouri in the regular season--even though the Sooners own them for all intents and purposes. I cannot find their complete schedule, but a 12-1 season is well within reach, possibly more if Sam Bradford continues his improvement.
Finally, a dark horse candidate in Morgantown, especially if Terry Bowden ends up the next coach at West Virginia. If Steve Slaton and Patrick White remain, plus Noel Devine, don't but it past the new boss. Remember Auburn '93? Then-new coach Bowden rode Patrick Nix, Stephen Davis, and Frank Sanders to an 11-0 mark punctuated by enormous wins over Florida (the SEC champ) and Alabama (bitter rival and SEC West champ) despite probation. He could do it again. The biggest problem is Auburn, the first game for the Mountaineers of 2008. The entire schedule does look inviting, with a possible danger in Boulder. A dark horse, but with the right coach, a threat nonetheless.
Super-Early Top 5:
1. Florida (14-0)
2. Southern California (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (13-1)
4. Georgia (11-3)
5. Ohio State (11-2)
BCS Championship: #1 Florida v. #2 USC = FLA 41 USC 28
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma v. Georgia (at-large) = OU 19 UGA 7
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia = VT 31 WVA 24
Fiesta Bowl: Illinois (at-large) v. Missouri (at-large) = ILL 21 MIZZ 10
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Arizona State (at-large) = OSU 24 ASU 23
Super-Early Top 5 Heisman:
1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (if 13-0, will not be denied a second trophy)
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (chance if UGA beats FLA)
3. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State (needs huge game at USC)
4. Patrick White, QB, West Virginia (last chance for WVA to fulfill promise)
5. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (your 2009 winner?)
Friday, December 14, 2007
The Word From Ann Arbor
Cliche, yes, but Michigan is at a crossroads. At some point the football program in association with the university must decide whether their team will continue down the same path since 1969 or jettison an aging, yet still very successful (at least in conference play) system led by Bo Schembechler. Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr, both former assistants, served as the face of the program from 1990-2007. During this time, Michigan dominated the Big 10 and only a six losses in seven stretch to Ohio State precluded additional BCS games (2001 and 2007) and a national title shot (2006). After 1996, Penn State ceased to concern Michigan, ditto Michigan State after Clockgate in 2001. Even an up-and-coming Illini team failed to hold their home turf against the Wolverines, and blew a Big 10 title share in the process.
Coach Carr's departure is drawing comparisons to that of John Cooper, circa 2000. Uh, no. Despite just two years removed from an 11-1 #2 final ranking, the erstwhile Buckeye chieftain had utterly lost control of his team, academics were a joke, players were fighting each other in practice, and, wonder of wonders, the program continued to lose (in 2000, embarrassingly) to SEC bowl opponents. Whilst Jim Tressel has got the better of Carr to a 6-1 tune, Michigan's image remains quite good, even with the recent trickle of dime-scale discipline problems. In short, they are in a better position, with the developing Ryan Mallet as their new leader, than Ohio State seven years ago.
Except that unlike Ohio State, UM's rejected list (both directions) has gone public. They offered Les Miles of LSU something very close but not enough, ditto with Greg Schiano of Rutgers (as to why the latter would want the Penn State position over the Michigan one, not sure I understand that), while apparently discounting Brian Kelly of Cincinnati. OSU looked seriously at Bob Stoops and Mike Belloti, yet settled on the championship game experience of Youngstown State's leader. While it is difficult to say from afar, say, an ocean removed, the UM search committee seems deadlocked on whether to find the next Lloyd Carr or break the mold.
Without question, the past few years have served as a wake-up call to the three principal football programs of the Midwest: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. ND probably still cannot believe Urban Meyer turned them down and now they're stuck with an unproven collegiate coach for the rest of his 10-year mega-contract. Obviously Michigan does not aspire to go down that route, but, in lieu of a better comparison, who is their Tressel? More to the point, is it possible for the Wolverines to hire a coach that can win the next decade against Ohio State? Of course, while the Senator's team rolls on like a well-oiled machine, 5-5 or even 6-4 is well within range. UM fans should not expect, however, a recreation of 1988-1995, an anomalous run without peer in the rivalry of The Game.
So, who should it be?
Jeff Tedford: Even the NFL has pined after this guy, irrespective of the "lost in translation" effect of his quarterbacks to the next level. Only a youthful error kept the Bears from #1 this season, then, utter calamity. They lost SIX times in their last seven games in a free-fall last seen in State College in 1999, even then LaVar, Courtney, et al. only dropped three. Putting on the UM cap (yes, as an OSU partisan in reality), the inability to displace USC for conference supremacy doesn't truly concern me, yet with their talent and alleged coaching genius, where are the BCS bowls? Yes, yes, in 2004 they got left at the altar by the teary speech given by another fair maiden, but what else?
He would break the mold and infuse the program with excitement, but would it last?
Brian Kelly: His one year in Cincy produced a tough team, yet a remarkably inconsistent one, fair enough. Unlike Tedford, not as much to go on here. For some reason he has rubbed the Next Lloyd crowd the wrong way, even though his non-Big Six conference experience could remind one of Schembechler at Miami of Ohio in the mid-1960s.
Not really breaking the mold.
Les Miles: If UM wants him, they could have him, yet they seem to want some self-flagellation from a proud man likely to win his first national championship--in the toughest conference no less. If he beats Tressel, and decisively, his price tag jumps even higher. If money and control are the issues (the latter perhaps more so), won't his demands simply grow after a projected 30-10 win over OSU? On the other hand, Ohio State hired Cooper in no small part because his Arizona State team defeated Michigan in a Rose Bowl, never fathoming they'd turn 5-4 to 2-10-1. As noted in this space, Tressel hammered a perhaps distracted Miles at an otherwise purposeless match at the Alamo Bowl in 2004. If Loquacious Les can bring two superb coordinators with him, absolutely, yet if fans questioned the Carr-DeBord strategy, is this guy that big of an improvement? Has he won a game as an underdog at LSU? The Bayou Bengals got stuffed in two tough SEC roadies last year, walloped ND, then fell twice in triple overtime, narrowing slipping past Florida and Auburn along the way in 2007. Would Michigan take some of the same athletes as LSU? Just asking...
He would break the mold, in part because the mold is fighting against him, for reasons not particularly clear at this juncture.
Chris Peterson: Last year, the "hot" coach with his Boise State team that earned the respect of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, this year, sans the trusty QB, two setbacks. His play-calling wowed a nation, yet he is but an inheritor of what Dan Hawkins built from the ground up.
Michigan would struggle to break the mold to a greater extent than this hire.
The Man to Hire...
Could UM entice the Ol' Ball Coach, as he would DO what JoePa failed to accomplish: winning eight of ten conference crowns. Spurrier would run off 7-1 after 7-1 and probably win a few Rose Bowls and another title. He could leave South Carolina, he's done it before. Few coaches would perform better against Tressel in psychological gamesmenship. With Joe Paterno likely moving on soon, Spurrier's entry would fulfill a needed niche for the conference, unless you expect the Zooker to contend for titles year in and year out.
Problems?
No way, plus OBC thinks he isn't far from catching FLA and UGA and figures that a greater feat than winning Big 10 title after Big 10 title. He also doesn't fit the lineage, even if his mentality is closer to Fielding Yost and his "Point a Minute" offense of the early 1900s.
Final Order:
1) Steve Spurrier - offer total control
2) Brian Kelly - some reservations
3) Jeff Tedford - narrowly over Miles
4) Les Miles - only if he wins championship
5) Ron English - the defensive coordinator, perhaps Lloyd's preferred choice
They wouldn't actually hire the Ball State guy, would they?
Coach Carr's departure is drawing comparisons to that of John Cooper, circa 2000. Uh, no. Despite just two years removed from an 11-1 #2 final ranking, the erstwhile Buckeye chieftain had utterly lost control of his team, academics were a joke, players were fighting each other in practice, and, wonder of wonders, the program continued to lose (in 2000, embarrassingly) to SEC bowl opponents. Whilst Jim Tressel has got the better of Carr to a 6-1 tune, Michigan's image remains quite good, even with the recent trickle of dime-scale discipline problems. In short, they are in a better position, with the developing Ryan Mallet as their new leader, than Ohio State seven years ago.
Except that unlike Ohio State, UM's rejected list (both directions) has gone public. They offered Les Miles of LSU something very close but not enough, ditto with Greg Schiano of Rutgers (as to why the latter would want the Penn State position over the Michigan one, not sure I understand that), while apparently discounting Brian Kelly of Cincinnati. OSU looked seriously at Bob Stoops and Mike Belloti, yet settled on the championship game experience of Youngstown State's leader. While it is difficult to say from afar, say, an ocean removed, the UM search committee seems deadlocked on whether to find the next Lloyd Carr or break the mold.
Without question, the past few years have served as a wake-up call to the three principal football programs of the Midwest: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. ND probably still cannot believe Urban Meyer turned them down and now they're stuck with an unproven collegiate coach for the rest of his 10-year mega-contract. Obviously Michigan does not aspire to go down that route, but, in lieu of a better comparison, who is their Tressel? More to the point, is it possible for the Wolverines to hire a coach that can win the next decade against Ohio State? Of course, while the Senator's team rolls on like a well-oiled machine, 5-5 or even 6-4 is well within range. UM fans should not expect, however, a recreation of 1988-1995, an anomalous run without peer in the rivalry of The Game.
So, who should it be?
Jeff Tedford: Even the NFL has pined after this guy, irrespective of the "lost in translation" effect of his quarterbacks to the next level. Only a youthful error kept the Bears from #1 this season, then, utter calamity. They lost SIX times in their last seven games in a free-fall last seen in State College in 1999, even then LaVar, Courtney, et al. only dropped three. Putting on the UM cap (yes, as an OSU partisan in reality), the inability to displace USC for conference supremacy doesn't truly concern me, yet with their talent and alleged coaching genius, where are the BCS bowls? Yes, yes, in 2004 they got left at the altar by the teary speech given by another fair maiden, but what else?
He would break the mold and infuse the program with excitement, but would it last?
Brian Kelly: His one year in Cincy produced a tough team, yet a remarkably inconsistent one, fair enough. Unlike Tedford, not as much to go on here. For some reason he has rubbed the Next Lloyd crowd the wrong way, even though his non-Big Six conference experience could remind one of Schembechler at Miami of Ohio in the mid-1960s.
Not really breaking the mold.
Les Miles: If UM wants him, they could have him, yet they seem to want some self-flagellation from a proud man likely to win his first national championship--in the toughest conference no less. If he beats Tressel, and decisively, his price tag jumps even higher. If money and control are the issues (the latter perhaps more so), won't his demands simply grow after a projected 30-10 win over OSU? On the other hand, Ohio State hired Cooper in no small part because his Arizona State team defeated Michigan in a Rose Bowl, never fathoming they'd turn 5-4 to 2-10-1. As noted in this space, Tressel hammered a perhaps distracted Miles at an otherwise purposeless match at the Alamo Bowl in 2004. If Loquacious Les can bring two superb coordinators with him, absolutely, yet if fans questioned the Carr-DeBord strategy, is this guy that big of an improvement? Has he won a game as an underdog at LSU? The Bayou Bengals got stuffed in two tough SEC roadies last year, walloped ND, then fell twice in triple overtime, narrowing slipping past Florida and Auburn along the way in 2007. Would Michigan take some of the same athletes as LSU? Just asking...
He would break the mold, in part because the mold is fighting against him, for reasons not particularly clear at this juncture.
Chris Peterson: Last year, the "hot" coach with his Boise State team that earned the respect of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, this year, sans the trusty QB, two setbacks. His play-calling wowed a nation, yet he is but an inheritor of what Dan Hawkins built from the ground up.
Michigan would struggle to break the mold to a greater extent than this hire.
The Man to Hire...
Could UM entice the Ol' Ball Coach, as he would DO what JoePa failed to accomplish: winning eight of ten conference crowns. Spurrier would run off 7-1 after 7-1 and probably win a few Rose Bowls and another title. He could leave South Carolina, he's done it before. Few coaches would perform better against Tressel in psychological gamesmenship. With Joe Paterno likely moving on soon, Spurrier's entry would fulfill a needed niche for the conference, unless you expect the Zooker to contend for titles year in and year out.
Problems?
No way, plus OBC thinks he isn't far from catching FLA and UGA and figures that a greater feat than winning Big 10 title after Big 10 title. He also doesn't fit the lineage, even if his mentality is closer to Fielding Yost and his "Point a Minute" offense of the early 1900s.
Final Order:
1) Steve Spurrier - offer total control
2) Brian Kelly - some reservations
3) Jeff Tedford - narrowly over Miles
4) Les Miles - only if he wins championship
5) Ron English - the defensive coordinator, perhaps Lloyd's preferred choice
They wouldn't actually hire the Ball State guy, would they?
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Can LSU Lose?
In their house, just down the road from the Rouge? To a Big 10 team that last defeated an SEC school in the 1980s? Representing a conference with a stellar BCS and unblemished BCS Championship Game record since 1992?
Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.
I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?
That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?
True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.
Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...
1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.
2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.
3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?
4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.
5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).
I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.
The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.
Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.
I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?
That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?
True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.
Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...
1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.
2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.
3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?
4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.
5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).
I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.
The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)