2007 UK Prognostication

The Road to Further Respectability:

v. Eastern Kentucky
v. Kent State
v. Louisville
@ Arkansas
v. Florida Atlantic
@ South Carolina
v. LSU
v. Florida
v. Mississippi State
@ Vanderbilt
@ Georgia
v. Tennessee

Should win: EKU, KSU, FA, MSU

Excellent, four-and-oh, where do I sign up? Seriously, all four games are at home, and while Florida Atlantic may boast better athletes they're not as formidable on the road. Look for Andre' Woodson to boost his numbers against this contingent, especially early.

Could win: LOU, SoCaro, Vandy

Louisville has owned the Cats for some time now, but without Michael Bush, I think they are ripe for the picking, especially with Woodson, especially at home. On a personal note: I attended both South Carolina games in my four years, both times the crafty Lou Holtz pulled out a victory at night. I admire their defense a great deal, but UK should have a chance here. Vanderbilt, by a country mile, is the top academic school in the conference, which usually translates into football futility. Recently, however, they've made strides. True, this is a road game, but the All America quarterback can get it done here.

Underdog: ARK, TEN

Darren McFadden is probably worth tanking the 2006 NFL season for any number of teams with no shot to hold the Lombardi Trophy in February. He will return to New York for the Heisman ceremony (though he won't win it). Nonetheless, I don't see Arkansas reprising their near miracle run through the SEC; LSU and Florida delivered reality checks to close the year, and the Hogs even fell to the Mystery Men from Madison. It's a roadie, and D-Mac could run for 250 yards... at the end of three quarters. Still, UK has a credible shot here.

ESPN Radio's Colin Cowherd, blogosphere favorite, thinks Tennesee is treading backward, losing close games, underachieving, etc. I don't know if I agree, given how close the Vols were to upending Florida and their super performance down in Athens last year. Besides, UK is always an underdog in this "clash," but with the setting of Commonwealth Stadium there is no reason why UK shouldn't put up a real fight here.

Significant Underdog: LSU, FLA

Two weeks running, yikes. Fortunately, both are at home, where, alas, UK has a history (LSU 2001, 2002; FLA 2003) of honking winnable home games against the current top-two of the SEC. Both schools boast incredible speed and athleticism, but both are breaking in new QBs, though Tebow may not fit that description entirely. Woodson's Heisman campaign ends with these two games.

This Will Not End Well: GA

It will require substantial maturity for the Cats not to get taken behind the woodshed in Athens. Georgia looks to return to their 2002-2005 form, after an uneven run last year. Good thing: it is the penultimate game of the season, which means a thirty-point shellacking will not scar the team and spike an otherwise promising year. Bad thing: Tennessee is next, and UK may need that one for a New Year's Day bowl.

Forecast: I've haven't been this optimistic in years. Despite my antipathy toward Coach Brooks, this team may win nine games (or more) in spite of his inferior coaching. South Carolina and Arkansas are the two biggest games of the year, both are on hostile terrain, and both rank slightly above UK in the SEC pecking order. One win is an absolute must, two would probably rate a bowl upgrade.

v. Eastern Kentucky (+20)
v. Kent State (+14)
v. Louisville (-4)
@ Arkansas (+7)
v. Florida Atlantic (+15)
@ South Carolina (-10)
v. LSU (-21)
v. Florida (-13)
v. Mississippi State (+31)
@ Vanderbilt (+14)
@ Georgia (-35)
v. Tennessee (-3)

6-6. Ugh. What about all that "optimism"? Well, Louisville still has an advantage in pure talent, to say nothing of LSU and Florida--and those are home tilts. I like the Cats in Fayetteville, but not Columbia. Coach Spurrier's recruiting classes will prove just a step or two away from the SEC elite this season. I think Tennessee will disappoint the most, particulary since the Vols don't seem ticketed for a big year.

Will this warrant a bowl? I don't know, but it starkly illustrates the prodigious challenge ahead of UK Football even in a year with a possible All-SEC performer at QB and eight(!) home games. They might prove just a few plays away from 9-3, but I don't see enough right now to warrant a better year than the one prior.