D-Mac's to Lose?

After a scintillating sophomore season capped off by the Doak Walker Award and a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, Arkansas tailback Darren McFadden (D-Mac) would seem the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in 2007. My question is not to his talent, but his team, as in, will the Hogs win enough games? Can they prevent LSU or Auburn from winning the SEC West in their place? I say no. Shockingly, the experts at ESPN.com disagree.

"McFadden has the numbers and the style to keep voters happy. Only two backs in SEC history have ever rushed for 1,000 yards in their freshman and sophomore seasons: Herschel Walker and McFadden. The Arkansas tailback accounted for touchdowns in four different ways last season: 14 as a runner, three as a passer, one as a receiver and one as a kick returner. If McFadden can duplicate this performance and the Hogs, coming off one of the crazier soap-opera offseasons in years, can get back to the SEC title game, he will be tough to beat."

Bruce Feldman brings up a good point: any comparison to Herschel Walker is outstanding for a player's cause. I simply dissent from his implicit premise that McFadden will get the back to the SEC title game. If he does, I will strongly endorse his candidacy. It took four touchdown passes from Troy Smith in a 42-39 victory of #2 Michigan for me to finally rank the eventual Heisman winner over D-Mac.

If not Darren McFadden, then...

CONTENDERS (as ranked by ESPN's panel):

1. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
2. John David Booty, QB, USC
3. Brian Brohm, QB, LOU
4. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
5. Mike Hart, RB, MICH

For either Slaton or his quarterback, Pat White, to even remotely come close to the award, West Virginia must go undefeated in the regular season. Must. Also, not disappearing in the latter part of the year would help too. For all its talent, Rich Rodriguez's team never looked the same after a stinging loss in Lousiville. True, they knocked off Rutgers, but by that point had forfeited status as a BCS bowl contender.

A USC quarterback, again? Maybe. There's no denying Booty looked like Palmer and Leinart against the Michigan secondary, but there is no hiding his rather pedestrian game against UCLA, either. Another factor against him? USC is blessed with tremendous depth at QB, which could lead Pete Carroll, after a Booty washout in Lincoln, to give Sanchez a shot. I'm not a Booty believer just yet.

Brian Brohm? Same criteria as Slaton/White, must not lose a game, which means no second-half egg against Rutgers that cost Ohio State a national championship. Boost? Andre Woodson has received a good deal of publicity following Maisel's bold proclamation, whipping UK at their house will do a lot for his candidacy.

Colt Brennan must post Andre Ware-type numbers to even merit a place in New York City. Very few people will watch his games, even though he could make a Pro Bowl or two later in his career. Possibly the nation's best passer, but the lack of a major conference schedule (and TV time) will not yield him the Heisman.

My pick to win the trophy is Mike Hart of Michigan, the school's first serious RB Heisman candidate since Tyrone Wheatley in 1993 (yes, that didn't end well). Michigan is out of excuses this season. Notwithstanding a nasty night affair in Madison, the other important contests are at the Big House: Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State. Assuming their defense retains 85% of its 2006 form (the front seven, that is), the Wolverines are two touchdowns better than all of those teams. Hart will rush for 150-200 yards against all of them, and it is hard to fathom the best player from last year's Epic in Columbus ending his career 0-4 versus the Buckeyes.

Darkhorses?

Ian Johnson of Boise State must run for 2,000 yards, and even then, too many running backs are ahead of him. The Blue Turfers may record another perfect record, but it's asking too much for McFadden, Slaton, and Hart to slip up. Chad Henne is an interesting case, although his expected All-Big 10 season may have the net effect of costing Hart the Heisman Trophy. Clearly, he must lead Michigan past Ohio State. If he does that, possibly, if not the first eleven games will matter very little.

Interesting that only one of the panel's nominees is a sophomore or a freshman (Colt McCoy, QB, Texas--and last at that) despite recent trips to the show by underclassmen McFadden and Reggie Bush (2004).

I would add two names: Florida QB Tim Tebow and Michigan WR Mario Manningham. With the departure of Calvin Johnson, Manningham, who exploded onto the national scene during Michigan's 47-21 demolition of then-#2 Notre Dame last year, is certainly the best wideout in the country. He may in fact also prove the best player, but absent Howard/Woodson-like effectiveness on returns, few voters are going to tap a receiver. Tebow's versatility helped the Gators to a national title a year ago, now, as a super sophomore, he may take the next leap, though he's not nearly as polished a passer as either Grossman (2001) or Wuerffel (1995, 1996), yet. Nevertheless, if Florida stays in the Top 5 most of the year, Tebow may well take the Southeastern bloc of Heisman voters.

In 2006, everyone assumed the race was Brady Quinn's to lose, and, owing much to Notre Dame's humiliation at the hands of Michigan, he lost it to Troy Smith of Ohio State. McFadden does not have the golden helmet to assist his cause, in fact, the Razorbacks do not regularly achieve a national following. If Arkansas is out of the title chase early, he's going to need 2,000 yards and a lot more touchdowns than last season. I think Hart can get it done with 1,800 yards and twelve victories, though an average-per-carry north of five would do much for his cause. Michigan fans slightly concerned that an impressive QB/RB/WR combo might spell doom for #20's odds, look only to Ohio State, 1995. Terry Glenn played perhaps the finest wide receiver season I've yet to witness (for eleven games anyway) and Eddie George easily won the Heisman Trophy (thanks, Orlando Pace).

West Virginia always trips up somewhere, exit Slaton and White. Louisville does not figure to challenge for the championship, exit Brohm.

Absolute darkhorse: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State. Perhaps the only player standing between OSU and 8-4, this phenomenally skilled back could carry a 10-1 team into Ann Arbor with 1,600 and twenty scores (if he can cease fumbling long enough). Given his ordinary sporting cast, Wells will merit serious consideration if he stays healthy and performs to his capabilities, absent a sterling line, quarterback, or receiving option.

Prediction:

1. Mike Hart, RB, MICH
2. Darren McFadden, RB, ARK
3. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
4. Chris Wells, RB, OSU
5. Tim Tebow, QB, FLA
6. Mario Manningham, WR, MICH
7. John David Booty, QB, USC
8. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
9. Andre' Woodson, QB, UK (homer alert)
10. Ian Johnson, RB, BSU

Would Hart have a chance against a swarming Bayou Bengal defense on the Superdome floor, however? Umm...