Tuesday, January 8, 2008

LSU is Your National Champion

1. Louisiana State (+4)
2. Georgia (-1)
3. Southern California (+1)
4. Missouri (+8)
5. West Virginia (+11)
6. Kansas (+4)
7. Auburn (+4)
8. Oklahoma (-5)
9. Tennessee (+4)
10. Virginia Tech (-4)
11. Ohio State (-9)
12. Michigan (+5)
13. Florida (-6)
14. Texas (NR)
15. Cincinnati (-9)
16. Illinois (-8)
17. Arizona State (-8)
18. Brigham Young (+1)
19. Boston College (+3)
20. Oregon (NR)
21. Oregon State (NR)
22. Penn State (+3)
23. Mississippi State (NR)
24. Clemson (-4)
25. Texas Tech (NR)

Just as I said way back when, the Bayou Bengals get it done! Their thirty-one point run was the difference, coupled with two killer OSU plays (the dropped TD pass and the roughing the punter), which obscured a banner night for Beanie Wells. Despite a 10-0 lead, Ohio State played an atrocious second quarter that bled a bit too far into the third. Even without their All-America safety, LSU's defense, whilst bending a bit, garnered sacks at key times and did not muff INT opportunities.

I offered that the SEC champs needed a two-touchdown victory to merit the title, and they got it.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

You Can Argue Against Ohio State...

but can you truly argue for anyone else?

Some have complained quietly and not-so quietly that Ohio State does not deserve to take the field in Monday's BCS Championship Game in N'Orleans. Colin Cowherd, an interesting host on ESPN Radio, made a good point about how the system loses when teams get rewarded for playing inferior competition. So, let's get a few things out of the way.

1) OSU played a Division I-AA or subdivision school in the form of Youngstown State, inexcusable, no doubt about it, which is why this game doesn't count in the BCS.

2) The Buckeyes toughest non-conference game, in a slate that included Akron, was a mid-afternoon tilt in Seattle, a team that could not defeat Hawaii and finished well off the pace in the Pac-10. Here is the dirty little secret: few in Columbus thought 2007 was a title-aspiring year, knowing that Troy Smith and others were on the way out, and, importantly, knowing odd-years mean trips to State College and Ann Arbor. Yes, I can fall under the label of "Buckeye homer" but I maintain you must grade OSU's schedule differently in odd-numbered years.

3) Ohio State lost AT HOME to a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog and second-place team in their conference that failed to defeat a weak Iowa team earlier in the year. It was only the self-destructive qualities of the Illini against Michigan that cost the Zookers a share of the conference crown.

In almost any other year, save perhaps 1990, this resume is nowhere near good enough to play for a title. Consider that in 2002 the Bucks defeated a quality opponent in Texas Tech, the co-Pac 10 champion (Wazzu State), in addition to their full Big 10 slate, net, 13-0. Last year they beat defending national champion Texas in Austin, plus #2 Michigan to close the season, net, 12-0. Ok, 2007 clearly doesn't measure up, and the home loss reeks of 1998, so we have made that clear. On the other hand?

In ascending order of merit, with final verdict*:

HAWAII (pre-Sugar Bowl embarrassment): Yes, Michigan could've played them, and yes, they head to Gainesville next season, so what. Their second-best win of the year was by seven, at home, to a less-healthy Washington team that Ohio State beat by nineteen in the Northwest. Are you going to tell me Boise State, again at home, is a better win than Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State? Did anyone play an easier schedule? ANYONE? If you pick this undefeated team you're also buying Tulane '98 over Florida State or even Boise State '06 over Florida.

VERDICT: Hell no. The question is whether the Rainbow Warriors even deserved a Top 25 ranking.

KANSAS (pre-Orange Bowl win): When a team played a significantly weaker strength of schedule than Ohio State, well, that doesn't say much for its chances. No Oklahoma, no Texas. They did beat Colorado in Boulder, but in their ONE huge game of the season they got smacked around by Missouri, and that was closer to a home game than a roadie. It was a better loss than OSU's, but the Buckeyes wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are better than KU's three best regular season wins.

VERDICT: Beat the teams it should, lost to the one it could have beat, did not schedule an OOC game even on the level of OSU/WSH, a firm no.

WEST VIRGINIA (pre-Fiesta Bowl domination): Let's begin by saying their non-conference schedule did include a game against the SEC. Good. Yet, the disappearance of South Florida from the national picture really hurts them here, the Bulls didn't even come close to the conference crown after reaching #2 in the polls at one point. And after a severe thrashing of UCONN the week prior, a 9-13 "L" at the hands of a non-bowl Pittsburgh team, AT HOME, requires a word stronger than "choke" and I have none for the occasion. Once again, two losses, and the last one much worse than Ohio State's and Oklahoma's to Colorado.

VERDICT: No team since Oklahoma '01 soiled themselves at a more inopportune time and I don't care if Patrick White had to leave the game, they only needed ONE MORE TOUCHDOWN!!!, an easy no.

VIRGINIA TECH (pre-Orange Bowl loss): Really? You're telling me the ACC is that much rougher than the Big 10, honestly? And do teams that lose 7-45, even if on the road to the eventual #2, deserve title shots? Ohio State lost by seven, in a game influenced by a terrible non-fumble in the first quarter, and never felt threatened deep into the fourth in any of their other games. Furthermore, the Hokies choked at home against Matt Ryan and the Golden Eagles, or they would have likely earned a rematch against LSU.

VERDICT: No, but credit to playing LSU at Tiger Stadium, yet you need to do better than a thirty-eight point loss, and while this season you could lose at home, to do so AND get blown out of the road, no, irrespective of the computers.

OKLAHOMA (pre-Fiesta Bowl calamity): I love the two wins over Missouri, even before the Tigers shredded Arkansas, Texas wasn't terrible this year either. On the other hand, while we can paper over the loss in Lubbock due to Sam Bradford's concussion (maybe), what do we say of the debacle in Boulder? Did you see Colorado in a bowl game this season? This also wasn't an out of conference tilt, but a non-division game, played against a struggling program. Bottom line: a worse loss than OSU's to Illinois and the extra loss kills their candidacy.

VERDICT: Close, but no. Two losses, neither to a team playing in a major bowl game is just not going to get it done, 24-7 in Boulder, boys, 24-7 in Boulder.

MISSOURI (pre-Cotton Bowl triumph): I love the SEC and Big 10 OOC tilts, especially since the Big 10 team DID beat Ohio State. Two losses stings but both were to OU--and they beat Kansas on neutral/unfriendly ground. I guess there is one way to answer this, if the Bucks drew the Sooners in Norman and in San Antonio, could they win either game? The odds are reasonable, but the late loss (decisively too) is the difference.

VERDICT: Very close, but no. Excellent resume, just needed a split with OU and couldn't get it.

GEORGIA (pre-Sugar Bowl walloping): I had them #1 before their bowl game and they didn't disappoint, perhaps the hottest team in America and the only one to convincingly defeat Florida. Still, South Carolina, as noted before in this space, did them no favors late in the year, and the atrocious performance in Knoxville killed their title hopes. A win over the Vols would have drawn them LSU and possibly given them another huge win. Also, despite the powerful SEC, no nice OOC win (Tempe comes next autumn), and no division title.

VERDICT: Toss-up, would they beat OSU? Yes. Does that erase the stigma of a 0-35 deficit to Tennessee and a home loss to a conference foe that collapsed? Georgia Tech fell away too, give me the Bucks, no for the Dawgs.

USC (pre-Rose Bowl smashing): Let's make one thing clear, if they beat Stanford, no one has a problem with their title game presence, only question is whether OSU or LSU plays them. The loss to Oregon in Eugene to a healthy Dennis Dixon, once a Heisman frontrunner, is better than any of the other losses in consideration. Although Cal disappeared, the Pac-10 still had a good year, and the Trojans went 5-1 on the road to include the always rowdy Sun Devil Stadium. Notre Dame didn't help them, though. You have to love Coach Pete Carroll's fearlessness (okay, maybe not in the case of Idaho--but look at 2008) and the six road games. The enormous question: does a team that would likely take Ohio State still deserve to jump them with a FORTY-POINT FAVORED HOME LOSS TO A NON-BOWL TEAM A WEEK PRIOR TO PLAYING ANOTHER NON-BOWL TEAM? In other words, Michigan may have looked ahead to Oregon whilst playing Appy State, what was Troy's excuse???

VERDICT: Stanford beat a deflated Cal, yet did nothing else the rest of the year, to include losing to an Irish team that fell AT HOME to Air Force and (gasp) Navy. I don't care if John David Booty's finger or injuries and inexperience permitted a BACK-UP QB to hit multiple fourth-down passes to end it 24-23, Cardinal--in the COLISEUM!!! I'm sorry, you are a bona fide dynasty, but the Stanford loss coupled with a tough one at Autzen doesn't give you much of an argument, even if a better one than anyone else.

Conclusions...

Hawaii, Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma clearly lose the argument, at least to my mind. Missouri, Georgia, and USC do have a case, but for reasons aforementioned it is not a particularly good one, even for the latter two schools. In fact, USC '02 had a better argument against OSU '02, due to two close road losses to two very good teams in a vicious schedule to include a good Notre Dame team, then in the present.

Everyone had holes this year, no major school went undefeated and no major school with one-loss had a better track-record than Ohio State. Are some two loss schools better? Yes, perhaps one, perhaps three, perhaps five, did ANY of them clearly earn the bid over the Bucks?

The fair-minded would say, no. Put simply, Ohio State could not have chosen a better year to lose a home game, not in the past and realistically not in the future. Virginia Tech, Georgia, and USC all lost home games plus a road game. It was the most remarkable year at the top, in terms of chaos, we are likely to ever see. But who knows, truly, what 2008 will bring?

*LSU was not considered because folks view them as the de facto #1 team by way of their favored status over Ohio State and because they only rank below the Buckeyes because they lost their second game later, and again in triple overtime, even if AT HOME.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Dawgs Steamroll Brennan, Warriors

Memo to the BCS: just because a team finishes undefeated does not mean they warrant a glitzy bowl selection, particularly against the best team in the country, apologies to USC. I still don't like the Dawgs Road to Miami next year, but unless Florida's defense matures over the summer (likely) they have a better shot than I thought last week. Knowshon Moreno is more than ready to assume D-Mac's throne as the SEC's best running back and if Matthew Stafford can survive some tough road games (specifically, Columbia and Tempe), at minimum Goarja will draw a return trip to the Sugar Bowl.

Enough, however, of this nonsense that UGA deserved to play in the Not Sugar. Their loss at the hands of a mediocre Tennessee bunch proved embarrassing and South Carolina's collapse didn't say much about the early season Dawgs. If major college football had a playoff, then yes Mark Richt's team would deserve a high seed. But we do not, which means schools must not lose to inferior teams and expect a shot at the crystal football.

The question for voters is whether USC or Georgia will finish #2. The Trojans beat a much-better Illinois team (Zooker's guys were in the game for a time, until the turnovers that never materialized in Columbus began sprouting all over the USC 15-yard line) with far more pure talent (Rashard Mendenhall, please hire an agent). Hawaii escaped several weak teams earlier this season and relied heavily upon a potential NFL quarterback to keep them afloat. Problem is, as Buckeye fans know all too well, the game is won and lost up front.

Georgia's defense is nasty, but their inability to handle the Volunteers offense in Knoxville killed their dream of winning the school's first national title since 1980. Silver lining: they remain in line to capture the first ever RT2020 championship, needing only an LSU win under two touchdowns to lay claim.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Thoughts on an 8-5 Finish

As summer crept to a close, I projected 6-6, which means that this team slightly exceeded my expectations, thanks largely to inspired quarterback play from #3. Once again, to no one's surprise the coaching limitations of Rich Brooks, especially in Columbia, prevented a real chance at the school's first ten-win season since 1977. After defeating then-#1 LSU in a game to remember in Lexington, the defense received a shredding at the hands of Tim Tebow and did not give a slow-starting Woodson enough time to dig the Cats out of the hole.

Yes, the SEC is a vicious conference, but consecutive 8-5 finishes should never gain acceptance as the pinnacle of a university's achievement, unless at a genuine student-athlete locale such as Vanderbilt. With the departure of Woodson to the NFL, where will Coach Brooks, assuming he is not wooed by the Baltimore Ravens, find the players and schemes to avoid a return to the sad-sack campaigns of 2004 and 2005?

Color me skeptical, though, I would prove satisfied with another 8-5 year (and bowl win against a decimated opponent) if it came with the development of a young QB who would hopefully have the Wildcats in contention (ha!) for 2009.

Player of the Year: Not close, despite some progress at RB and WR, it was Woodson's team and he played as well as most not from Columbia (Missouri, this time) and Gainesville.

Moment of the Year: The TD pass in the waning moments to stun Louisville and send the post-Petrino Cards into a well-deserved tail spin.

Egg of the Year: The uninspired loss to Syl Croom's good Mississippi State team, because it was at home and ended any possibility to make the dream game in Atlanta.

Predictable losses: v. FLA, @ UGA

Rich Brooks: C-, the fortunate wins over Louisville and Louisiana State would make a lower ranking unsightly, nonetheless, this was his best team since the 1994 Oregon Ducks, and finishing with the same record as last year does not merit the same approval as last year with the same personnel. Where was the improvement? Florida had to break in a new defense, Tennessee remains mired in conference mediocrity, yet UK fell to both at home, failing to force a Tebow turnover and fouling up things in OT in the finale.

Andre' Woodson finished exceptionally strong against a good but thinned-down Florida State defense, and, per usual, the defense could not stop the opponent on the ground. Next year does not bode well. Without even looking at the schedule, only knowing roadies to FLA and TEN plus UGA's return to the Commonwealth (not to mention a reasonably improved LOU team and another SoCaro escape in Lexington), 4-8 is quite likely. It is likelier to turn out worse than that.

If that occurs, or if the last five games don't produce those four wins, then Mitch Barnhardt has to look elsewhere, and, say, hire a coach with a WINNING RECORD!!! I vote for Ron Engish, former defensive coordinator at the University of Michigan, and, yes, a minority candidate. We did it in basketball, why not football? The job of the next coach is to at least mitigate the ferocious damage done week after week in the trenches, pretty much ever since DeWayne Robertson took his talent to the NFL.

Best of luck to the great Andre' Woodson, a sure-fire first day selection at this point, and possibly first round material if he can impress at the combine. I think he will start some games at the next level.