Last year, on a now-defunct blog, I boldly predicted, before their dismantling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, the 2007 national champion: LSU. I picked the Bayou Bengals irrespective of projected first-round draft choice losses to include their star quarterback due to a perceived friendly schedule buttressed by a virtual home-game in the BCS Championship.
Looking pretty good right about now. Yes, it took some resistance to the massive, heavily-overblown hype emanating from Los Angeles, but I stuck to my guns, and even predicted a two-loss season for the USC Trojans. Also, correct. Obviously, I didn't foresee two losses for the Tigers, particularly the last one, at home, to Arkansas, but this season proved the one for such a resume. Now, for all my USC criticism, I actually like them quite a bit next season, provided they beat the Buckeyes in a huge September game at the Coliseum.
All of the rough roadies (Eugene, Tempe) are home games and if Notre Dame has improved at all, that one is also in Los Angeles. Arizona State might improve some more, Oregon is headed for a fall, NO ONE should trust California, Washington will get better, Oregon State never starts out quickly enough, and it's very hard to see another 8-1 team in the Pac-10. Stanford? Jim Harbaugh's team will likely make strides too, but if they finish 6-3 in conference play, well, he should win Coach of the Year honors.
Mark Sanchez, now a little older (presumably, he stays heathly) emerges as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate to battle Ohio State's Chris Wells and of course the defending champion from Gainesville, plus the prodigious depth and newfound experience of their wide receivers. I would expect the defense, whilst losing some key players, to continue to have little trouble in conference play and likely with Todd Boeckman (unless the latter comes up big in the Not Sugar).
Their Road to the Not Orange (along with RT2020 spread):
@ Virginia (-13)
v. Ohio State (-9)
@ Oregon State (-5)
v. Oregon (-18)
v. Arizona State (-14)
@ Washington State (-20)
@ Arizona (-14)
v. Washington (-4)
v. California (-21)
@ Stanford (-20)
v. Notre Dame (-24)
@ UCLA (-13)
A solid favorite in every matchup, pending, once again, the result of Ohio State's game against LSU. If the Buckeyes win, that game in LA is a toss up, if not slightly more than a touchdown. I actually think U-Dub, with Locker a year older, could pose the most significant threat, particularly because USC might overlook them if California is off to a nice start. Their first three tilts, however, are brutal. USC's last trip to Corvallis ended with a loss, but I can easily see the Trojans still winning comfortably. Once more, six road clashes, which we should commend, but not as unruly as 2007 (even if NEB and ND fell on their faces). After smashing Illinois, they will have a haunting memory of the Stanford game that cost them a chance to beat Ohio State... unless of course all the media outlets again go gaga over this team and project them to beat 1995 Nebraska.
Twelve-and-oh, mark it down. So, who will they play? A rematch with Ohio State is not out of the question (the Bucks host both Penn State and Michigan), if the game is close and the Big 10 fields at least one other ten-win team. I don't think so, however, as I think the other slot to the Orange is coming out of the SEC (of course).
And that team is the one with the best player and the best coach in America.
The Gator Slate:
v. Hawaii (-27)
v. Miami (-30)
@ Tennessee (-10)
v. Ole Miss (-31)
@ Arkansas (-24)
v. LSU (-13)
v. Kentucky (-30)
n. Georgia (-3)
@ Vanderbilt (-21)
v. South Carolina (-7)
v. Citadel (-45)
@ Florida State (-27)
n. Auburn (-17, projected SEC West opponent in Atlanta)
Hurrah, no Auburn! And just four road games. The early test in Knoxville should tell the tale. Tennessee, utterly trashed by #15 in 2007, will show some pride next season--but I'm not persuaded that the Vols, ten years removed from their last conference championship, are good enough to beat Florida. The Gators will have a more experienced defense, a better Percy Harvin, and perhaps (finally) a true running back to take some pressure off Tebow. Sans Colt Brennan, even a Rainbow Warrior team that clips Georgia will have no chance at the Swamp. The battle with Georgia will determine control of the SEC East and perhaps the national title race, which will hinge on whether the Gator defense has stiffened enough not to allow Georgia's sensational sophomore tailback, echoes of Walker and Hearst, to run through them again. LSU will drop, UK will plummet, good year to play Miami, but watch out for the crafty OBC late in the year. The Citadel game, alone, gives USC's schedule a big edge, and the absence of Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama leave this slate highly likely to finish with nary a blemish.
Thirteen-and-oh, and at least another NYC trip for Tim Tebow. Barring a total calamity in the Capital One, I will place Florida at #1 in the 2008 preseason poll, if this blog runs that far. It is possible even a loss to Georgia, provided the Dawgs fall twice in the SEC, wouldn't keep Florida out of their first Orange Bowl since 2001. Seven years prior to next season, in Steve Spurrier's last campaign, the Mighty Gators also opened at #1, and as mentioned previously, no Auburn to ruin things... at least not until Championship Saturday.
Bottom line: Unless the Superhero QB goes down for an extended time in at least one game, this team has 70/30 odds to run the table and perhaps 80/20 to reach Miami. FLA's offense will rate as the country's best, which means an improved D will only need to keep one team (UGA) below twenty-four. Given the coaching abilities of Meyer, his team should complete just the second undefeated SEC run since 1998 (Auburn, of course, 2004).
So, Florida #1, USC #2, what about anyone else? Or is this a reprisal of 2004-05, when the top two team stayed 1-2 all season long? We briefly referenced Georgia as perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Gators, what of their schedule?
v. Georgia Southern (-31)
v. Central Michigan (-24)
@ South Carolina (Even)
@ Arizona State!!! (-3)
v. Alabama (-8)
Bye
v. Tennessee (-14)
v. Vanderbilt (-21)
@ LSU (Even)
n. Florida (+3)
@ Kentucky (-30)
@ Auburn (Even)
Bye
v. Georgia Tech (-17)
At first glance, too difficult. How about that two-week quinella of Columbia and Tempe? Yikes. The game with SoCaro, especially since the OBC rolled into town, is always a vicious contest with few touchdowns. I suspect ASU will drop off, but I maintain winning on the road, presumably this one will take place under the lights, in Sun Devil Stadium is one the toughest tests for any team, Pac-10 or otherwise. Then come Alabama and a revenge match against the Vols. After a semi-breather against Vandy (don't get caught looking ahead!) the monster showdowns occur at the Rouge and J'ville. If that wasn't enough, Auburn lurks toward the end. Verdict: 10-2 if they're lucky, but a win over Florida would likely send them to Atlanta so long as they lost only one SEC contest. Unless the defense truly raises their level of play and they can get consistent play from signal-caller Matt Stafford, not a viable championship game threat, though probably a return trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Top 5 ranking in the final Bowl Championship Series.
Oklahoma? Yes, a real threat, and a bit of a break in not seeing Missouri in the regular season--even though the Sooners own them for all intents and purposes. I cannot find their complete schedule, but a 12-1 season is well within reach, possibly more if Sam Bradford continues his improvement.
Finally, a dark horse candidate in Morgantown, especially if Terry Bowden ends up the next coach at West Virginia. If Steve Slaton and Patrick White remain, plus Noel Devine, don't but it past the new boss. Remember Auburn '93? Then-new coach Bowden rode Patrick Nix, Stephen Davis, and Frank Sanders to an 11-0 mark punctuated by enormous wins over Florida (the SEC champ) and Alabama (bitter rival and SEC West champ) despite probation. He could do it again. The biggest problem is Auburn, the first game for the Mountaineers of 2008. The entire schedule does look inviting, with a possible danger in Boulder. A dark horse, but with the right coach, a threat nonetheless.
Super-Early Top 5:
1. Florida (14-0)
2. Southern California (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (13-1)
4. Georgia (11-3)
5. Ohio State (11-2)
BCS Championship: #1 Florida v. #2 USC = FLA 41 USC 28
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma v. Georgia (at-large) = OU 19 UGA 7
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia = VT 31 WVA 24
Fiesta Bowl: Illinois (at-large) v. Missouri (at-large) = ILL 21 MIZZ 10
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Arizona State (at-large) = OSU 24 ASU 23
Super-Early Top 5 Heisman:
1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (if 13-0, will not be denied a second trophy)
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (chance if UGA beats FLA)
3. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State (needs huge game at USC)
4. Patrick White, QB, West Virginia (last chance for WVA to fulfill promise)
5. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (your 2009 winner?)
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Friday, December 14, 2007
The Word From Ann Arbor
Cliche, yes, but Michigan is at a crossroads. At some point the football program in association with the university must decide whether their team will continue down the same path since 1969 or jettison an aging, yet still very successful (at least in conference play) system led by Bo Schembechler. Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr, both former assistants, served as the face of the program from 1990-2007. During this time, Michigan dominated the Big 10 and only a six losses in seven stretch to Ohio State precluded additional BCS games (2001 and 2007) and a national title shot (2006). After 1996, Penn State ceased to concern Michigan, ditto Michigan State after Clockgate in 2001. Even an up-and-coming Illini team failed to hold their home turf against the Wolverines, and blew a Big 10 title share in the process.
Coach Carr's departure is drawing comparisons to that of John Cooper, circa 2000. Uh, no. Despite just two years removed from an 11-1 #2 final ranking, the erstwhile Buckeye chieftain had utterly lost control of his team, academics were a joke, players were fighting each other in practice, and, wonder of wonders, the program continued to lose (in 2000, embarrassingly) to SEC bowl opponents. Whilst Jim Tressel has got the better of Carr to a 6-1 tune, Michigan's image remains quite good, even with the recent trickle of dime-scale discipline problems. In short, they are in a better position, with the developing Ryan Mallet as their new leader, than Ohio State seven years ago.
Except that unlike Ohio State, UM's rejected list (both directions) has gone public. They offered Les Miles of LSU something very close but not enough, ditto with Greg Schiano of Rutgers (as to why the latter would want the Penn State position over the Michigan one, not sure I understand that), while apparently discounting Brian Kelly of Cincinnati. OSU looked seriously at Bob Stoops and Mike Belloti, yet settled on the championship game experience of Youngstown State's leader. While it is difficult to say from afar, say, an ocean removed, the UM search committee seems deadlocked on whether to find the next Lloyd Carr or break the mold.
Without question, the past few years have served as a wake-up call to the three principal football programs of the Midwest: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. ND probably still cannot believe Urban Meyer turned them down and now they're stuck with an unproven collegiate coach for the rest of his 10-year mega-contract. Obviously Michigan does not aspire to go down that route, but, in lieu of a better comparison, who is their Tressel? More to the point, is it possible for the Wolverines to hire a coach that can win the next decade against Ohio State? Of course, while the Senator's team rolls on like a well-oiled machine, 5-5 or even 6-4 is well within range. UM fans should not expect, however, a recreation of 1988-1995, an anomalous run without peer in the rivalry of The Game.
So, who should it be?
Jeff Tedford: Even the NFL has pined after this guy, irrespective of the "lost in translation" effect of his quarterbacks to the next level. Only a youthful error kept the Bears from #1 this season, then, utter calamity. They lost SIX times in their last seven games in a free-fall last seen in State College in 1999, even then LaVar, Courtney, et al. only dropped three. Putting on the UM cap (yes, as an OSU partisan in reality), the inability to displace USC for conference supremacy doesn't truly concern me, yet with their talent and alleged coaching genius, where are the BCS bowls? Yes, yes, in 2004 they got left at the altar by the teary speech given by another fair maiden, but what else?
He would break the mold and infuse the program with excitement, but would it last?
Brian Kelly: His one year in Cincy produced a tough team, yet a remarkably inconsistent one, fair enough. Unlike Tedford, not as much to go on here. For some reason he has rubbed the Next Lloyd crowd the wrong way, even though his non-Big Six conference experience could remind one of Schembechler at Miami of Ohio in the mid-1960s.
Not really breaking the mold.
Les Miles: If UM wants him, they could have him, yet they seem to want some self-flagellation from a proud man likely to win his first national championship--in the toughest conference no less. If he beats Tressel, and decisively, his price tag jumps even higher. If money and control are the issues (the latter perhaps more so), won't his demands simply grow after a projected 30-10 win over OSU? On the other hand, Ohio State hired Cooper in no small part because his Arizona State team defeated Michigan in a Rose Bowl, never fathoming they'd turn 5-4 to 2-10-1. As noted in this space, Tressel hammered a perhaps distracted Miles at an otherwise purposeless match at the Alamo Bowl in 2004. If Loquacious Les can bring two superb coordinators with him, absolutely, yet if fans questioned the Carr-DeBord strategy, is this guy that big of an improvement? Has he won a game as an underdog at LSU? The Bayou Bengals got stuffed in two tough SEC roadies last year, walloped ND, then fell twice in triple overtime, narrowing slipping past Florida and Auburn along the way in 2007. Would Michigan take some of the same athletes as LSU? Just asking...
He would break the mold, in part because the mold is fighting against him, for reasons not particularly clear at this juncture.
Chris Peterson: Last year, the "hot" coach with his Boise State team that earned the respect of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, this year, sans the trusty QB, two setbacks. His play-calling wowed a nation, yet he is but an inheritor of what Dan Hawkins built from the ground up.
Michigan would struggle to break the mold to a greater extent than this hire.
The Man to Hire...
Could UM entice the Ol' Ball Coach, as he would DO what JoePa failed to accomplish: winning eight of ten conference crowns. Spurrier would run off 7-1 after 7-1 and probably win a few Rose Bowls and another title. He could leave South Carolina, he's done it before. Few coaches would perform better against Tressel in psychological gamesmenship. With Joe Paterno likely moving on soon, Spurrier's entry would fulfill a needed niche for the conference, unless you expect the Zooker to contend for titles year in and year out.
Problems?
No way, plus OBC thinks he isn't far from catching FLA and UGA and figures that a greater feat than winning Big 10 title after Big 10 title. He also doesn't fit the lineage, even if his mentality is closer to Fielding Yost and his "Point a Minute" offense of the early 1900s.
Final Order:
1) Steve Spurrier - offer total control
2) Brian Kelly - some reservations
3) Jeff Tedford - narrowly over Miles
4) Les Miles - only if he wins championship
5) Ron English - the defensive coordinator, perhaps Lloyd's preferred choice
They wouldn't actually hire the Ball State guy, would they?
Coach Carr's departure is drawing comparisons to that of John Cooper, circa 2000. Uh, no. Despite just two years removed from an 11-1 #2 final ranking, the erstwhile Buckeye chieftain had utterly lost control of his team, academics were a joke, players were fighting each other in practice, and, wonder of wonders, the program continued to lose (in 2000, embarrassingly) to SEC bowl opponents. Whilst Jim Tressel has got the better of Carr to a 6-1 tune, Michigan's image remains quite good, even with the recent trickle of dime-scale discipline problems. In short, they are in a better position, with the developing Ryan Mallet as their new leader, than Ohio State seven years ago.
Except that unlike Ohio State, UM's rejected list (both directions) has gone public. They offered Les Miles of LSU something very close but not enough, ditto with Greg Schiano of Rutgers (as to why the latter would want the Penn State position over the Michigan one, not sure I understand that), while apparently discounting Brian Kelly of Cincinnati. OSU looked seriously at Bob Stoops and Mike Belloti, yet settled on the championship game experience of Youngstown State's leader. While it is difficult to say from afar, say, an ocean removed, the UM search committee seems deadlocked on whether to find the next Lloyd Carr or break the mold.
Without question, the past few years have served as a wake-up call to the three principal football programs of the Midwest: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. ND probably still cannot believe Urban Meyer turned them down and now they're stuck with an unproven collegiate coach for the rest of his 10-year mega-contract. Obviously Michigan does not aspire to go down that route, but, in lieu of a better comparison, who is their Tressel? More to the point, is it possible for the Wolverines to hire a coach that can win the next decade against Ohio State? Of course, while the Senator's team rolls on like a well-oiled machine, 5-5 or even 6-4 is well within range. UM fans should not expect, however, a recreation of 1988-1995, an anomalous run without peer in the rivalry of The Game.
So, who should it be?
Jeff Tedford: Even the NFL has pined after this guy, irrespective of the "lost in translation" effect of his quarterbacks to the next level. Only a youthful error kept the Bears from #1 this season, then, utter calamity. They lost SIX times in their last seven games in a free-fall last seen in State College in 1999, even then LaVar, Courtney, et al. only dropped three. Putting on the UM cap (yes, as an OSU partisan in reality), the inability to displace USC for conference supremacy doesn't truly concern me, yet with their talent and alleged coaching genius, where are the BCS bowls? Yes, yes, in 2004 they got left at the altar by the teary speech given by another fair maiden, but what else?
He would break the mold and infuse the program with excitement, but would it last?
Brian Kelly: His one year in Cincy produced a tough team, yet a remarkably inconsistent one, fair enough. Unlike Tedford, not as much to go on here. For some reason he has rubbed the Next Lloyd crowd the wrong way, even though his non-Big Six conference experience could remind one of Schembechler at Miami of Ohio in the mid-1960s.
Not really breaking the mold.
Les Miles: If UM wants him, they could have him, yet they seem to want some self-flagellation from a proud man likely to win his first national championship--in the toughest conference no less. If he beats Tressel, and decisively, his price tag jumps even higher. If money and control are the issues (the latter perhaps more so), won't his demands simply grow after a projected 30-10 win over OSU? On the other hand, Ohio State hired Cooper in no small part because his Arizona State team defeated Michigan in a Rose Bowl, never fathoming they'd turn 5-4 to 2-10-1. As noted in this space, Tressel hammered a perhaps distracted Miles at an otherwise purposeless match at the Alamo Bowl in 2004. If Loquacious Les can bring two superb coordinators with him, absolutely, yet if fans questioned the Carr-DeBord strategy, is this guy that big of an improvement? Has he won a game as an underdog at LSU? The Bayou Bengals got stuffed in two tough SEC roadies last year, walloped ND, then fell twice in triple overtime, narrowing slipping past Florida and Auburn along the way in 2007. Would Michigan take some of the same athletes as LSU? Just asking...
He would break the mold, in part because the mold is fighting against him, for reasons not particularly clear at this juncture.
Chris Peterson: Last year, the "hot" coach with his Boise State team that earned the respect of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, this year, sans the trusty QB, two setbacks. His play-calling wowed a nation, yet he is but an inheritor of what Dan Hawkins built from the ground up.
Michigan would struggle to break the mold to a greater extent than this hire.
The Man to Hire...
Could UM entice the Ol' Ball Coach, as he would DO what JoePa failed to accomplish: winning eight of ten conference crowns. Spurrier would run off 7-1 after 7-1 and probably win a few Rose Bowls and another title. He could leave South Carolina, he's done it before. Few coaches would perform better against Tressel in psychological gamesmenship. With Joe Paterno likely moving on soon, Spurrier's entry would fulfill a needed niche for the conference, unless you expect the Zooker to contend for titles year in and year out.
Problems?
No way, plus OBC thinks he isn't far from catching FLA and UGA and figures that a greater feat than winning Big 10 title after Big 10 title. He also doesn't fit the lineage, even if his mentality is closer to Fielding Yost and his "Point a Minute" offense of the early 1900s.
Final Order:
1) Steve Spurrier - offer total control
2) Brian Kelly - some reservations
3) Jeff Tedford - narrowly over Miles
4) Les Miles - only if he wins championship
5) Ron English - the defensive coordinator, perhaps Lloyd's preferred choice
They wouldn't actually hire the Ball State guy, would they?
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Can LSU Lose?
In their house, just down the road from the Rouge? To a Big 10 team that last defeated an SEC school in the 1980s? Representing a conference with a stellar BCS and unblemished BCS Championship Game record since 1992?
Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.
I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?
That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?
True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.
Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...
1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.
2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.
3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?
4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.
5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).
I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.
The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.
Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.
I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?
That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?
True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.
Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...
1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.
2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.
3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?
4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.
5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).
I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.
The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.
Sunday, December 2, 2007
A Stroll Down Memory Lane
Before I self-flagellate, a little crow about my parlay of the year: Oregon, to beat USC, and NOT to rank in the final poll. At #2 in the BCS just weeks ago, it looked like another foolish pick. Alas, not so fast my friend...
The exercise: a preseason poll and how it measured up...
BOLD: indicates a sincere tip of the hat.
1. Louisiana State (5)
Analysis: O, how I loved thee all through the campaign, yet you lost my heart against the Hogs and didn't get it back. Both losses were not good.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -4 performance
2. Michigan (17)
Analysis: Actually, given their 6-1 Big Ten start, not so bad. Riiight. The 7-39 stinkbomb against Oregon and the half-hearted effort in Madison will still not likely prove as memorable as a loss to Appalachian State.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -15 performance
3. Texas (NR)
Analysis: I'm officially off the Mack Brown bandwagon, the program ran on fumes for a time without Vince Young but the parade of Big 12 losses to mediocre teams has become quite disturbing.
Judgment: Awful, < -23 performance
4. Florida (7)
Analysis: Knew Tebow would be good, knew the Gators had one of the best coaches, didn't think Auburn would get them again. Had them losing to LSU though, but not to Georgia.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -3 performance
5. Southern California (4)
Analysis: My 10-2 forecast (nailed ORE game, as for that NEB game, err...) proved remarkably prescient. I never bought the hype. Rose Bowl? Yes, but nothing more.
Judgment: Dead on, +1 performance
6. Wisconsin (14)
Analysis: They figured to lose one to either Michigan or Ohio State, but getting housed by PSU even at Beaver Stadium was terrible. P. J. Hill didn't become a Heisman threat and the defense got gouged by Beanie and the Bucks.
Judgment: Overrated, -8 performance
7. West Virginia (16)
Analysis: Goodbye to all that, part deux. The worst home loss in school history, still, got the Big East champion part right.
Judgment: Overrated, -9 performance
8. Florida State (NR)
Analysis: They upset then-#2 BC, and, let's just move right along...
Judgment: Awful, < -18 performance
9. Georgia (1)
Analysis: Had the 10-2 record, didn't quite foresee just how formidable a two-loss team would prove this year. Missed the Florida game, too.
Judgment: Underrated, +8 performance
10. UCLA (NR)
11. Nebraska (NR)
12. Louisville (NR)
Analysis: Twenty returning starters didn't work out too well, Sam Keller never became a Heisman threat, and Brian Brohm was let down by everyone, coaches included.
Judgment: Awful, awful, and awful. < -15, < -14, < -13, respectively
13. Oklahoma (3)
Analysis: Didn't buy Bradford, do now. Didn't think much of a team that failed to conquer Boise State, thought Texas was better (oops)
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +10 performance
14. Rutgers (NR)
Analysis: Just never played with consistency, wiped out South Florida and then got dropped by Maryland. Ray Rice didn't capitalize on his team's 2006 season.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, < -11 performance
15. Penn State (25)
Analysis: Allowed OSU to run them off the field, failed to score a TD at Michigan, and closed with an ugly collapse against Sparty. More mediocrity for JoePa.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -10 performance
16. Tennessee (13)
Analysis: Didn't see them winning the SEC East, but pretty much nailed their performance against Florida. Looked awful in Tuscaloosa, though.
Judgment: Slightly underrated, +3 performance
17. Virginia Tech (6)
Analysis: Knew LSU game was an "L," but like UGA, didn't see a two-loss team this impressive, also didn't see a conference title, oops.
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +11 performance
18. Ohio State (2)
Analysis: Well, forecast 3-4 losses. They dropped one. Third straight "odd year" with a BCS Bowl appearance. Rebuilding? Ha!
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +16 performance
19. Boise State (NR)
Analysis: Thought they would only lose once, dropped two games. Disappointing loss to Hawaii, too. Still, a good year.
Judgment: Overrated, < -6 performance
20. South Carolina (NR)
Analysis: Missed the early rise, didn't think their collapse would prove as bad. Nailed the LSU loss and UK win, expected more though from the Old Ball Coach.
Judgment: Overrated, < -5 performance
21. California (NR)
Analysis: Curiously low for August, yet a lot better than most. This team stood one score away from #1 at one time, won at Autzen, but completely fell apart down the stretch, my goodness, they lost to STANFORD!!!
Judgment: Slightly overrated, < -4 performance
22. Auburn (13)
Analysis: Didn't see win in Gainesville coming, yet believed second in SEC firmly possible.
Judgment: Underrated, +9 performance
23. Oregon State (NR)
Analysis: Hell, the pollsters have them about here. I bought early but a few eye-opening losses caused my exodus from the bandwagon, team failed to capitalize on ten-win momentum from 2006.
Judgment: Dead on, -2 performance
24. Arkansas (15)
Analysis: Never saw a win at Baton Rouge, but thought D-Mac could keep them in the race for #2 in the West. The defeat at the hands of UK, mind you, was not a good one.
Judgment: Underrated, -9 performance
25. Miami (FL) (NR)
Analysis: Drank too much Randy Shannon Kool-Aid, 0-48 drubbing by Virginia.
Judgment: Awful, < -1 performance (awful because team isn't in Top 40)
BIGGEST HITS:
LSU, FLORIDA, USC, TENNESSEE, PENN STATE, and OREGON STATE
COLOSSAL MISFIRES:
MICHIGAN, TEXAS, FLORIDA STATE, UCLA, NEBRASKA, LOUISVILLE, and MIAMI (FL)
Finally...
HIGHEST FINAL POLL TEAMS NOT RANKED IN AUGUST
8. Illinois - Bandwagoneer for '08, Iowa loss notwithstanding
9. Arizona State - Great season for Denny-E
10. Kansas - Reesing, but didn't play anyone
12. Missouri - Finally played to expectations
18. Virginia - won more than fair share of close ones
BEST CALL: USC, specified two losses (1-2 on those games)
MOST SERENDIPITOUS CALL: OREGON, and it's not close
WORST CALL: TEXAS, and yes, it takes a lot to beat out FSU, UCLA, NEB...
The exercise: a preseason poll and how it measured up...
BOLD: indicates a sincere tip of the hat.
1. Louisiana State (5)
Analysis: O, how I loved thee all through the campaign, yet you lost my heart against the Hogs and didn't get it back. Both losses were not good.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -4 performance
2. Michigan (17)
Analysis: Actually, given their 6-1 Big Ten start, not so bad. Riiight. The 7-39 stinkbomb against Oregon and the half-hearted effort in Madison will still not likely prove as memorable as a loss to Appalachian State.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -15 performance
3. Texas (NR)
Analysis: I'm officially off the Mack Brown bandwagon, the program ran on fumes for a time without Vince Young but the parade of Big 12 losses to mediocre teams has become quite disturbing.
Judgment: Awful, < -23 performance
4. Florida (7)
Analysis: Knew Tebow would be good, knew the Gators had one of the best coaches, didn't think Auburn would get them again. Had them losing to LSU though, but not to Georgia.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -3 performance
5. Southern California (4)
Analysis: My 10-2 forecast (nailed ORE game, as for that NEB game, err...) proved remarkably prescient. I never bought the hype. Rose Bowl? Yes, but nothing more.
Judgment: Dead on, +1 performance
6. Wisconsin (14)
Analysis: They figured to lose one to either Michigan or Ohio State, but getting housed by PSU even at Beaver Stadium was terrible. P. J. Hill didn't become a Heisman threat and the defense got gouged by Beanie and the Bucks.
Judgment: Overrated, -8 performance
7. West Virginia (16)
Analysis: Goodbye to all that, part deux. The worst home loss in school history, still, got the Big East champion part right.
Judgment: Overrated, -9 performance
8. Florida State (NR)
Analysis: They upset then-#2 BC, and, let's just move right along...
Judgment: Awful, < -18 performance
9. Georgia (1)
Analysis: Had the 10-2 record, didn't quite foresee just how formidable a two-loss team would prove this year. Missed the Florida game, too.
Judgment: Underrated, +8 performance
10. UCLA (NR)
11. Nebraska (NR)
12. Louisville (NR)
Analysis: Twenty returning starters didn't work out too well, Sam Keller never became a Heisman threat, and Brian Brohm was let down by everyone, coaches included.
Judgment: Awful, awful, and awful. < -15, < -14, < -13, respectively
13. Oklahoma (3)
Analysis: Didn't buy Bradford, do now. Didn't think much of a team that failed to conquer Boise State, thought Texas was better (oops)
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +10 performance
14. Rutgers (NR)
Analysis: Just never played with consistency, wiped out South Florida and then got dropped by Maryland. Ray Rice didn't capitalize on his team's 2006 season.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, < -11 performance
15. Penn State (25)
Analysis: Allowed OSU to run them off the field, failed to score a TD at Michigan, and closed with an ugly collapse against Sparty. More mediocrity for JoePa.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -10 performance
16. Tennessee (13)
Analysis: Didn't see them winning the SEC East, but pretty much nailed their performance against Florida. Looked awful in Tuscaloosa, though.
Judgment: Slightly underrated, +3 performance
17. Virginia Tech (6)
Analysis: Knew LSU game was an "L," but like UGA, didn't see a two-loss team this impressive, also didn't see a conference title, oops.
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +11 performance
18. Ohio State (2)
Analysis: Well, forecast 3-4 losses. They dropped one. Third straight "odd year" with a BCS Bowl appearance. Rebuilding? Ha!
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +16 performance
19. Boise State (NR)
Analysis: Thought they would only lose once, dropped two games. Disappointing loss to Hawaii, too. Still, a good year.
Judgment: Overrated, < -6 performance
20. South Carolina (NR)
Analysis: Missed the early rise, didn't think their collapse would prove as bad. Nailed the LSU loss and UK win, expected more though from the Old Ball Coach.
Judgment: Overrated, < -5 performance
21. California (NR)
Analysis: Curiously low for August, yet a lot better than most. This team stood one score away from #1 at one time, won at Autzen, but completely fell apart down the stretch, my goodness, they lost to STANFORD!!!
Judgment: Slightly overrated, < -4 performance
22. Auburn (13)
Analysis: Didn't see win in Gainesville coming, yet believed second in SEC firmly possible.
Judgment: Underrated, +9 performance
23. Oregon State (NR)
Analysis: Hell, the pollsters have them about here. I bought early but a few eye-opening losses caused my exodus from the bandwagon, team failed to capitalize on ten-win momentum from 2006.
Judgment: Dead on, -2 performance
24. Arkansas (15)
Analysis: Never saw a win at Baton Rouge, but thought D-Mac could keep them in the race for #2 in the West. The defeat at the hands of UK, mind you, was not a good one.
Judgment: Underrated, -9 performance
25. Miami (FL) (NR)
Analysis: Drank too much Randy Shannon Kool-Aid, 0-48 drubbing by Virginia.
Judgment: Awful, < -1 performance (awful because team isn't in Top 40)
BIGGEST HITS:
LSU, FLORIDA, USC, TENNESSEE, PENN STATE, and OREGON STATE
COLOSSAL MISFIRES:
MICHIGAN, TEXAS, FLORIDA STATE, UCLA, NEBRASKA, LOUISVILLE, and MIAMI (FL)
Finally...
HIGHEST FINAL POLL TEAMS NOT RANKED IN AUGUST
8. Illinois - Bandwagoneer for '08, Iowa loss notwithstanding
9. Arizona State - Great season for Denny-E
10. Kansas - Reesing, but didn't play anyone
12. Missouri - Finally played to expectations
18. Virginia - won more than fair share of close ones
BEST CALL: USC, specified two losses (1-2 on those games)
MOST SERENDIPITOUS CALL: OREGON, and it's not close
WORST CALL: TEXAS, and yes, it takes a lot to beat out FSU, UCLA, NEB...
RT2020 Poll: Week of December 2
1. Georgia (+3)
2. Ohio State (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Southern California (+2)
5. Louisiana State (NC)
6. Virginia Tech (+1)
7. Florida (-1)
8. Illinois (+2)
9. Arizona State (+5)
10. Kansas (+1)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Missouri (-11)
13. Tennessee (NC)
14. Wisconsin (+1)
15. Arkansas (+1)
16. West Virginia (-13)
17. Michigan (+1)
18. Virginia (-2)
19. Brigham Young (-3)
20. Clemson (+3)
21. South Florida (NC)
22. Boston College (-5)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NC)
25. Penn State (NC)
In defense of the ballot...
I think I can reasonably argue that the Dawgs are the #1 team in America. First, for all of my Buckeye sympathies, this SEC school played a rougher schedule than Ohio State or even Oklahoma. Secondly, they lost a tough game to South Carolina when the OBC mattered, and boast one of the longest winning streaks in the nation. Yes, they didn't win their conference let alone their division (thanks to a loss in Knoxville), but no team, aside from USC is playing as well.
I keep OSU at #2. Mostly, I just cannot see them as the best team in the country unless they defeat an opponent in the Not Sugar. I did have them at #2 even before Missouri's embarrassing loss to the Sooners and West Virginia's, well, whatever that was in Morgantown tonight. Ohio State beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, two of them on the road, and lost only ONCE (something that matters this season) to a team perhaps destined for the Rose Bowl.
Oklahoma showed me a lot tonight, particularly in that second half after Missouri had rallied to tie late. The better athletes and the more efficient quarterback (dare we say, better?) prevailed. The loss to Texas Tech I can excuse due to Sam Bradford's concussion, the loss in Boulder I cannot. Despite their talent and reasonable schedule, two losses in conference are two losses.
USC smashed UCLA, no surprise there. Yes, the media loves them and bemoans the injured finger that derailed, well, something. A deserving Rose Bowl participant, but they didn't beat Oregon when Dennis Dixon still had two good wheels, and that loss to Stanford remains the single worst of the season.
No one loved the Bayou Bengals more than this blogger, starting from December, but I'm over them. Had they punished Tennessee today instead of lucking out on a defensive touchdown, or, more significantly, had they stopped any Arkansas runner of consequence last week, yeah, I would still sing their praises. No more. Yes, a backup quarterback, and yes thanks for denying the Vols the title of worst SEC champion in recent memory, but that does not warrant another opportunity to win it all.
2. Ohio State (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Southern California (+2)
5. Louisiana State (NC)
6. Virginia Tech (+1)
7. Florida (-1)
8. Illinois (+2)
9. Arizona State (+5)
10. Kansas (+1)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Missouri (-11)
13. Tennessee (NC)
14. Wisconsin (+1)
15. Arkansas (+1)
16. West Virginia (-13)
17. Michigan (+1)
18. Virginia (-2)
19. Brigham Young (-3)
20. Clemson (+3)
21. South Florida (NC)
22. Boston College (-5)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NC)
25. Penn State (NC)
In defense of the ballot...
I think I can reasonably argue that the Dawgs are the #1 team in America. First, for all of my Buckeye sympathies, this SEC school played a rougher schedule than Ohio State or even Oklahoma. Secondly, they lost a tough game to South Carolina when the OBC mattered, and boast one of the longest winning streaks in the nation. Yes, they didn't win their conference let alone their division (thanks to a loss in Knoxville), but no team, aside from USC is playing as well.
I keep OSU at #2. Mostly, I just cannot see them as the best team in the country unless they defeat an opponent in the Not Sugar. I did have them at #2 even before Missouri's embarrassing loss to the Sooners and West Virginia's, well, whatever that was in Morgantown tonight. Ohio State beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, two of them on the road, and lost only ONCE (something that matters this season) to a team perhaps destined for the Rose Bowl.
Oklahoma showed me a lot tonight, particularly in that second half after Missouri had rallied to tie late. The better athletes and the more efficient quarterback (dare we say, better?) prevailed. The loss to Texas Tech I can excuse due to Sam Bradford's concussion, the loss in Boulder I cannot. Despite their talent and reasonable schedule, two losses in conference are two losses.
USC smashed UCLA, no surprise there. Yes, the media loves them and bemoans the injured finger that derailed, well, something. A deserving Rose Bowl participant, but they didn't beat Oregon when Dennis Dixon still had two good wheels, and that loss to Stanford remains the single worst of the season.
No one loved the Bayou Bengals more than this blogger, starting from December, but I'm over them. Had they punished Tennessee today instead of lucking out on a defensive touchdown, or, more significantly, had they stopped any Arkansas runner of consequence last week, yeah, I would still sing their praises. No more. Yes, a backup quarterback, and yes thanks for denying the Vols the title of worst SEC champion in recent memory, but that does not warrant another opportunity to win it all.
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