Last year, on a now-defunct blog, I boldly predicted, before their dismantling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, the 2007 national champion: LSU. I picked the Bayou Bengals irrespective of projected first-round draft choice losses to include their star quarterback due to a perceived friendly schedule buttressed by a virtual home-game in the BCS Championship.
Looking pretty good right about now. Yes, it took some resistance to the massive, heavily-overblown hype emanating from Los Angeles, but I stuck to my guns, and even predicted a two-loss season for the USC Trojans. Also, correct. Obviously, I didn't foresee two losses for the Tigers, particularly the last one, at home, to Arkansas, but this season proved the one for such a resume. Now, for all my USC criticism, I actually like them quite a bit next season, provided they beat the Buckeyes in a huge September game at the Coliseum.
All of the rough roadies (Eugene, Tempe) are home games and if Notre Dame has improved at all, that one is also in Los Angeles. Arizona State might improve some more, Oregon is headed for a fall, NO ONE should trust California, Washington will get better, Oregon State never starts out quickly enough, and it's very hard to see another 8-1 team in the Pac-10. Stanford? Jim Harbaugh's team will likely make strides too, but if they finish 6-3 in conference play, well, he should win Coach of the Year honors.
Mark Sanchez, now a little older (presumably, he stays heathly) emerges as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate to battle Ohio State's Chris Wells and of course the defending champion from Gainesville, plus the prodigious depth and newfound experience of their wide receivers. I would expect the defense, whilst losing some key players, to continue to have little trouble in conference play and likely with Todd Boeckman (unless the latter comes up big in the Not Sugar).
Their Road to the Not Orange (along with RT2020 spread):
@ Virginia (-13)
v. Ohio State (-9)
@ Oregon State (-5)
v. Oregon (-18)
v. Arizona State (-14)
@ Washington State (-20)
@ Arizona (-14)
v. Washington (-4)
v. California (-21)
@ Stanford (-20)
v. Notre Dame (-24)
@ UCLA (-13)
A solid favorite in every matchup, pending, once again, the result of Ohio State's game against LSU. If the Buckeyes win, that game in LA is a toss up, if not slightly more than a touchdown. I actually think U-Dub, with Locker a year older, could pose the most significant threat, particularly because USC might overlook them if California is off to a nice start. Their first three tilts, however, are brutal. USC's last trip to Corvallis ended with a loss, but I can easily see the Trojans still winning comfortably. Once more, six road clashes, which we should commend, but not as unruly as 2007 (even if NEB and ND fell on their faces). After smashing Illinois, they will have a haunting memory of the Stanford game that cost them a chance to beat Ohio State... unless of course all the media outlets again go gaga over this team and project them to beat 1995 Nebraska.
Twelve-and-oh, mark it down. So, who will they play? A rematch with Ohio State is not out of the question (the Bucks host both Penn State and Michigan), if the game is close and the Big 10 fields at least one other ten-win team. I don't think so, however, as I think the other slot to the Orange is coming out of the SEC (of course).
And that team is the one with the best player and the best coach in America.
The Gator Slate:
v. Hawaii (-27)
v. Miami (-30)
@ Tennessee (-10)
v. Ole Miss (-31)
@ Arkansas (-24)
v. LSU (-13)
v. Kentucky (-30)
n. Georgia (-3)
@ Vanderbilt (-21)
v. South Carolina (-7)
v. Citadel (-45)
@ Florida State (-27)
n. Auburn (-17, projected SEC West opponent in Atlanta)
Hurrah, no Auburn! And just four road games. The early test in Knoxville should tell the tale. Tennessee, utterly trashed by #15 in 2007, will show some pride next season--but I'm not persuaded that the Vols, ten years removed from their last conference championship, are good enough to beat Florida. The Gators will have a more experienced defense, a better Percy Harvin, and perhaps (finally) a true running back to take some pressure off Tebow. Sans Colt Brennan, even a Rainbow Warrior team that clips Georgia will have no chance at the Swamp. The battle with Georgia will determine control of the SEC East and perhaps the national title race, which will hinge on whether the Gator defense has stiffened enough not to allow Georgia's sensational sophomore tailback, echoes of Walker and Hearst, to run through them again. LSU will drop, UK will plummet, good year to play Miami, but watch out for the crafty OBC late in the year. The Citadel game, alone, gives USC's schedule a big edge, and the absence of Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama leave this slate highly likely to finish with nary a blemish.
Thirteen-and-oh, and at least another NYC trip for Tim Tebow. Barring a total calamity in the Capital One, I will place Florida at #1 in the 2008 preseason poll, if this blog runs that far. It is possible even a loss to Georgia, provided the Dawgs fall twice in the SEC, wouldn't keep Florida out of their first Orange Bowl since 2001. Seven years prior to next season, in Steve Spurrier's last campaign, the Mighty Gators also opened at #1, and as mentioned previously, no Auburn to ruin things... at least not until Championship Saturday.
Bottom line: Unless the Superhero QB goes down for an extended time in at least one game, this team has 70/30 odds to run the table and perhaps 80/20 to reach Miami. FLA's offense will rate as the country's best, which means an improved D will only need to keep one team (UGA) below twenty-four. Given the coaching abilities of Meyer, his team should complete just the second undefeated SEC run since 1998 (Auburn, of course, 2004).
So, Florida #1, USC #2, what about anyone else? Or is this a reprisal of 2004-05, when the top two team stayed 1-2 all season long? We briefly referenced Georgia as perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Gators, what of their schedule?
v. Georgia Southern (-31)
v. Central Michigan (-24)
@ South Carolina (Even)
@ Arizona State!!! (-3)
v. Alabama (-8)
Bye
v. Tennessee (-14)
v. Vanderbilt (-21)
@ LSU (Even)
n. Florida (+3)
@ Kentucky (-30)
@ Auburn (Even)
Bye
v. Georgia Tech (-17)
At first glance, too difficult. How about that two-week quinella of Columbia and Tempe? Yikes. The game with SoCaro, especially since the OBC rolled into town, is always a vicious contest with few touchdowns. I suspect ASU will drop off, but I maintain winning on the road, presumably this one will take place under the lights, in Sun Devil Stadium is one the toughest tests for any team, Pac-10 or otherwise. Then come Alabama and a revenge match against the Vols. After a semi-breather against Vandy (don't get caught looking ahead!) the monster showdowns occur at the Rouge and J'ville. If that wasn't enough, Auburn lurks toward the end. Verdict: 10-2 if they're lucky, but a win over Florida would likely send them to Atlanta so long as they lost only one SEC contest. Unless the defense truly raises their level of play and they can get consistent play from signal-caller Matt Stafford, not a viable championship game threat, though probably a return trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Top 5 ranking in the final Bowl Championship Series.
Oklahoma? Yes, a real threat, and a bit of a break in not seeing Missouri in the regular season--even though the Sooners own them for all intents and purposes. I cannot find their complete schedule, but a 12-1 season is well within reach, possibly more if Sam Bradford continues his improvement.
Finally, a dark horse candidate in Morgantown, especially if Terry Bowden ends up the next coach at West Virginia. If Steve Slaton and Patrick White remain, plus Noel Devine, don't but it past the new boss. Remember Auburn '93? Then-new coach Bowden rode Patrick Nix, Stephen Davis, and Frank Sanders to an 11-0 mark punctuated by enormous wins over Florida (the SEC champ) and Alabama (bitter rival and SEC West champ) despite probation. He could do it again. The biggest problem is Auburn, the first game for the Mountaineers of 2008. The entire schedule does look inviting, with a possible danger in Boulder. A dark horse, but with the right coach, a threat nonetheless.
Super-Early Top 5:
1. Florida (14-0)
2. Southern California (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (13-1)
4. Georgia (11-3)
5. Ohio State (11-2)
BCS Championship: #1 Florida v. #2 USC = FLA 41 USC 28
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma v. Georgia (at-large) = OU 19 UGA 7
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia = VT 31 WVA 24
Fiesta Bowl: Illinois (at-large) v. Missouri (at-large) = ILL 21 MIZZ 10
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Arizona State (at-large) = OSU 24 ASU 23
Super-Early Top 5 Heisman:
1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (if 13-0, will not be denied a second trophy)
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (chance if UGA beats FLA)
3. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State (needs huge game at USC)
4. Patrick White, QB, West Virginia (last chance for WVA to fulfill promise)
5. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (your 2009 winner?)
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Friday, December 14, 2007
The Word From Ann Arbor
Cliche, yes, but Michigan is at a crossroads. At some point the football program in association with the university must decide whether their team will continue down the same path since 1969 or jettison an aging, yet still very successful (at least in conference play) system led by Bo Schembechler. Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr, both former assistants, served as the face of the program from 1990-2007. During this time, Michigan dominated the Big 10 and only a six losses in seven stretch to Ohio State precluded additional BCS games (2001 and 2007) and a national title shot (2006). After 1996, Penn State ceased to concern Michigan, ditto Michigan State after Clockgate in 2001. Even an up-and-coming Illini team failed to hold their home turf against the Wolverines, and blew a Big 10 title share in the process.
Coach Carr's departure is drawing comparisons to that of John Cooper, circa 2000. Uh, no. Despite just two years removed from an 11-1 #2 final ranking, the erstwhile Buckeye chieftain had utterly lost control of his team, academics were a joke, players were fighting each other in practice, and, wonder of wonders, the program continued to lose (in 2000, embarrassingly) to SEC bowl opponents. Whilst Jim Tressel has got the better of Carr to a 6-1 tune, Michigan's image remains quite good, even with the recent trickle of dime-scale discipline problems. In short, they are in a better position, with the developing Ryan Mallet as their new leader, than Ohio State seven years ago.
Except that unlike Ohio State, UM's rejected list (both directions) has gone public. They offered Les Miles of LSU something very close but not enough, ditto with Greg Schiano of Rutgers (as to why the latter would want the Penn State position over the Michigan one, not sure I understand that), while apparently discounting Brian Kelly of Cincinnati. OSU looked seriously at Bob Stoops and Mike Belloti, yet settled on the championship game experience of Youngstown State's leader. While it is difficult to say from afar, say, an ocean removed, the UM search committee seems deadlocked on whether to find the next Lloyd Carr or break the mold.
Without question, the past few years have served as a wake-up call to the three principal football programs of the Midwest: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. ND probably still cannot believe Urban Meyer turned them down and now they're stuck with an unproven collegiate coach for the rest of his 10-year mega-contract. Obviously Michigan does not aspire to go down that route, but, in lieu of a better comparison, who is their Tressel? More to the point, is it possible for the Wolverines to hire a coach that can win the next decade against Ohio State? Of course, while the Senator's team rolls on like a well-oiled machine, 5-5 or even 6-4 is well within range. UM fans should not expect, however, a recreation of 1988-1995, an anomalous run without peer in the rivalry of The Game.
So, who should it be?
Jeff Tedford: Even the NFL has pined after this guy, irrespective of the "lost in translation" effect of his quarterbacks to the next level. Only a youthful error kept the Bears from #1 this season, then, utter calamity. They lost SIX times in their last seven games in a free-fall last seen in State College in 1999, even then LaVar, Courtney, et al. only dropped three. Putting on the UM cap (yes, as an OSU partisan in reality), the inability to displace USC for conference supremacy doesn't truly concern me, yet with their talent and alleged coaching genius, where are the BCS bowls? Yes, yes, in 2004 they got left at the altar by the teary speech given by another fair maiden, but what else?
He would break the mold and infuse the program with excitement, but would it last?
Brian Kelly: His one year in Cincy produced a tough team, yet a remarkably inconsistent one, fair enough. Unlike Tedford, not as much to go on here. For some reason he has rubbed the Next Lloyd crowd the wrong way, even though his non-Big Six conference experience could remind one of Schembechler at Miami of Ohio in the mid-1960s.
Not really breaking the mold.
Les Miles: If UM wants him, they could have him, yet they seem to want some self-flagellation from a proud man likely to win his first national championship--in the toughest conference no less. If he beats Tressel, and decisively, his price tag jumps even higher. If money and control are the issues (the latter perhaps more so), won't his demands simply grow after a projected 30-10 win over OSU? On the other hand, Ohio State hired Cooper in no small part because his Arizona State team defeated Michigan in a Rose Bowl, never fathoming they'd turn 5-4 to 2-10-1. As noted in this space, Tressel hammered a perhaps distracted Miles at an otherwise purposeless match at the Alamo Bowl in 2004. If Loquacious Les can bring two superb coordinators with him, absolutely, yet if fans questioned the Carr-DeBord strategy, is this guy that big of an improvement? Has he won a game as an underdog at LSU? The Bayou Bengals got stuffed in two tough SEC roadies last year, walloped ND, then fell twice in triple overtime, narrowing slipping past Florida and Auburn along the way in 2007. Would Michigan take some of the same athletes as LSU? Just asking...
He would break the mold, in part because the mold is fighting against him, for reasons not particularly clear at this juncture.
Chris Peterson: Last year, the "hot" coach with his Boise State team that earned the respect of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, this year, sans the trusty QB, two setbacks. His play-calling wowed a nation, yet he is but an inheritor of what Dan Hawkins built from the ground up.
Michigan would struggle to break the mold to a greater extent than this hire.
The Man to Hire...
Could UM entice the Ol' Ball Coach, as he would DO what JoePa failed to accomplish: winning eight of ten conference crowns. Spurrier would run off 7-1 after 7-1 and probably win a few Rose Bowls and another title. He could leave South Carolina, he's done it before. Few coaches would perform better against Tressel in psychological gamesmenship. With Joe Paterno likely moving on soon, Spurrier's entry would fulfill a needed niche for the conference, unless you expect the Zooker to contend for titles year in and year out.
Problems?
No way, plus OBC thinks he isn't far from catching FLA and UGA and figures that a greater feat than winning Big 10 title after Big 10 title. He also doesn't fit the lineage, even if his mentality is closer to Fielding Yost and his "Point a Minute" offense of the early 1900s.
Final Order:
1) Steve Spurrier - offer total control
2) Brian Kelly - some reservations
3) Jeff Tedford - narrowly over Miles
4) Les Miles - only if he wins championship
5) Ron English - the defensive coordinator, perhaps Lloyd's preferred choice
They wouldn't actually hire the Ball State guy, would they?
Coach Carr's departure is drawing comparisons to that of John Cooper, circa 2000. Uh, no. Despite just two years removed from an 11-1 #2 final ranking, the erstwhile Buckeye chieftain had utterly lost control of his team, academics were a joke, players were fighting each other in practice, and, wonder of wonders, the program continued to lose (in 2000, embarrassingly) to SEC bowl opponents. Whilst Jim Tressel has got the better of Carr to a 6-1 tune, Michigan's image remains quite good, even with the recent trickle of dime-scale discipline problems. In short, they are in a better position, with the developing Ryan Mallet as their new leader, than Ohio State seven years ago.
Except that unlike Ohio State, UM's rejected list (both directions) has gone public. They offered Les Miles of LSU something very close but not enough, ditto with Greg Schiano of Rutgers (as to why the latter would want the Penn State position over the Michigan one, not sure I understand that), while apparently discounting Brian Kelly of Cincinnati. OSU looked seriously at Bob Stoops and Mike Belloti, yet settled on the championship game experience of Youngstown State's leader. While it is difficult to say from afar, say, an ocean removed, the UM search committee seems deadlocked on whether to find the next Lloyd Carr or break the mold.
Without question, the past few years have served as a wake-up call to the three principal football programs of the Midwest: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. ND probably still cannot believe Urban Meyer turned them down and now they're stuck with an unproven collegiate coach for the rest of his 10-year mega-contract. Obviously Michigan does not aspire to go down that route, but, in lieu of a better comparison, who is their Tressel? More to the point, is it possible for the Wolverines to hire a coach that can win the next decade against Ohio State? Of course, while the Senator's team rolls on like a well-oiled machine, 5-5 or even 6-4 is well within range. UM fans should not expect, however, a recreation of 1988-1995, an anomalous run without peer in the rivalry of The Game.
So, who should it be?
Jeff Tedford: Even the NFL has pined after this guy, irrespective of the "lost in translation" effect of his quarterbacks to the next level. Only a youthful error kept the Bears from #1 this season, then, utter calamity. They lost SIX times in their last seven games in a free-fall last seen in State College in 1999, even then LaVar, Courtney, et al. only dropped three. Putting on the UM cap (yes, as an OSU partisan in reality), the inability to displace USC for conference supremacy doesn't truly concern me, yet with their talent and alleged coaching genius, where are the BCS bowls? Yes, yes, in 2004 they got left at the altar by the teary speech given by another fair maiden, but what else?
He would break the mold and infuse the program with excitement, but would it last?
Brian Kelly: His one year in Cincy produced a tough team, yet a remarkably inconsistent one, fair enough. Unlike Tedford, not as much to go on here. For some reason he has rubbed the Next Lloyd crowd the wrong way, even though his non-Big Six conference experience could remind one of Schembechler at Miami of Ohio in the mid-1960s.
Not really breaking the mold.
Les Miles: If UM wants him, they could have him, yet they seem to want some self-flagellation from a proud man likely to win his first national championship--in the toughest conference no less. If he beats Tressel, and decisively, his price tag jumps even higher. If money and control are the issues (the latter perhaps more so), won't his demands simply grow after a projected 30-10 win over OSU? On the other hand, Ohio State hired Cooper in no small part because his Arizona State team defeated Michigan in a Rose Bowl, never fathoming they'd turn 5-4 to 2-10-1. As noted in this space, Tressel hammered a perhaps distracted Miles at an otherwise purposeless match at the Alamo Bowl in 2004. If Loquacious Les can bring two superb coordinators with him, absolutely, yet if fans questioned the Carr-DeBord strategy, is this guy that big of an improvement? Has he won a game as an underdog at LSU? The Bayou Bengals got stuffed in two tough SEC roadies last year, walloped ND, then fell twice in triple overtime, narrowing slipping past Florida and Auburn along the way in 2007. Would Michigan take some of the same athletes as LSU? Just asking...
He would break the mold, in part because the mold is fighting against him, for reasons not particularly clear at this juncture.
Chris Peterson: Last year, the "hot" coach with his Boise State team that earned the respect of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, this year, sans the trusty QB, two setbacks. His play-calling wowed a nation, yet he is but an inheritor of what Dan Hawkins built from the ground up.
Michigan would struggle to break the mold to a greater extent than this hire.
The Man to Hire...
Could UM entice the Ol' Ball Coach, as he would DO what JoePa failed to accomplish: winning eight of ten conference crowns. Spurrier would run off 7-1 after 7-1 and probably win a few Rose Bowls and another title. He could leave South Carolina, he's done it before. Few coaches would perform better against Tressel in psychological gamesmenship. With Joe Paterno likely moving on soon, Spurrier's entry would fulfill a needed niche for the conference, unless you expect the Zooker to contend for titles year in and year out.
Problems?
No way, plus OBC thinks he isn't far from catching FLA and UGA and figures that a greater feat than winning Big 10 title after Big 10 title. He also doesn't fit the lineage, even if his mentality is closer to Fielding Yost and his "Point a Minute" offense of the early 1900s.
Final Order:
1) Steve Spurrier - offer total control
2) Brian Kelly - some reservations
3) Jeff Tedford - narrowly over Miles
4) Les Miles - only if he wins championship
5) Ron English - the defensive coordinator, perhaps Lloyd's preferred choice
They wouldn't actually hire the Ball State guy, would they?
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Can LSU Lose?
In their house, just down the road from the Rouge? To a Big 10 team that last defeated an SEC school in the 1980s? Representing a conference with a stellar BCS and unblemished BCS Championship Game record since 1992?
Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.
I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?
That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?
True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.
Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...
1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.
2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.
3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?
4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.
5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).
I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.
The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.
Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.
I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?
That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?
True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.
Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...
1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.
2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.
3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?
4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.
5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).
I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.
The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.
Sunday, December 2, 2007
A Stroll Down Memory Lane
Before I self-flagellate, a little crow about my parlay of the year: Oregon, to beat USC, and NOT to rank in the final poll. At #2 in the BCS just weeks ago, it looked like another foolish pick. Alas, not so fast my friend...
The exercise: a preseason poll and how it measured up...
BOLD: indicates a sincere tip of the hat.
1. Louisiana State (5)
Analysis: O, how I loved thee all through the campaign, yet you lost my heart against the Hogs and didn't get it back. Both losses were not good.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -4 performance
2. Michigan (17)
Analysis: Actually, given their 6-1 Big Ten start, not so bad. Riiight. The 7-39 stinkbomb against Oregon and the half-hearted effort in Madison will still not likely prove as memorable as a loss to Appalachian State.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -15 performance
3. Texas (NR)
Analysis: I'm officially off the Mack Brown bandwagon, the program ran on fumes for a time without Vince Young but the parade of Big 12 losses to mediocre teams has become quite disturbing.
Judgment: Awful, < -23 performance
4. Florida (7)
Analysis: Knew Tebow would be good, knew the Gators had one of the best coaches, didn't think Auburn would get them again. Had them losing to LSU though, but not to Georgia.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -3 performance
5. Southern California (4)
Analysis: My 10-2 forecast (nailed ORE game, as for that NEB game, err...) proved remarkably prescient. I never bought the hype. Rose Bowl? Yes, but nothing more.
Judgment: Dead on, +1 performance
6. Wisconsin (14)
Analysis: They figured to lose one to either Michigan or Ohio State, but getting housed by PSU even at Beaver Stadium was terrible. P. J. Hill didn't become a Heisman threat and the defense got gouged by Beanie and the Bucks.
Judgment: Overrated, -8 performance
7. West Virginia (16)
Analysis: Goodbye to all that, part deux. The worst home loss in school history, still, got the Big East champion part right.
Judgment: Overrated, -9 performance
8. Florida State (NR)
Analysis: They upset then-#2 BC, and, let's just move right along...
Judgment: Awful, < -18 performance
9. Georgia (1)
Analysis: Had the 10-2 record, didn't quite foresee just how formidable a two-loss team would prove this year. Missed the Florida game, too.
Judgment: Underrated, +8 performance
10. UCLA (NR)
11. Nebraska (NR)
12. Louisville (NR)
Analysis: Twenty returning starters didn't work out too well, Sam Keller never became a Heisman threat, and Brian Brohm was let down by everyone, coaches included.
Judgment: Awful, awful, and awful. < -15, < -14, < -13, respectively
13. Oklahoma (3)
Analysis: Didn't buy Bradford, do now. Didn't think much of a team that failed to conquer Boise State, thought Texas was better (oops)
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +10 performance
14. Rutgers (NR)
Analysis: Just never played with consistency, wiped out South Florida and then got dropped by Maryland. Ray Rice didn't capitalize on his team's 2006 season.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, < -11 performance
15. Penn State (25)
Analysis: Allowed OSU to run them off the field, failed to score a TD at Michigan, and closed with an ugly collapse against Sparty. More mediocrity for JoePa.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -10 performance
16. Tennessee (13)
Analysis: Didn't see them winning the SEC East, but pretty much nailed their performance against Florida. Looked awful in Tuscaloosa, though.
Judgment: Slightly underrated, +3 performance
17. Virginia Tech (6)
Analysis: Knew LSU game was an "L," but like UGA, didn't see a two-loss team this impressive, also didn't see a conference title, oops.
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +11 performance
18. Ohio State (2)
Analysis: Well, forecast 3-4 losses. They dropped one. Third straight "odd year" with a BCS Bowl appearance. Rebuilding? Ha!
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +16 performance
19. Boise State (NR)
Analysis: Thought they would only lose once, dropped two games. Disappointing loss to Hawaii, too. Still, a good year.
Judgment: Overrated, < -6 performance
20. South Carolina (NR)
Analysis: Missed the early rise, didn't think their collapse would prove as bad. Nailed the LSU loss and UK win, expected more though from the Old Ball Coach.
Judgment: Overrated, < -5 performance
21. California (NR)
Analysis: Curiously low for August, yet a lot better than most. This team stood one score away from #1 at one time, won at Autzen, but completely fell apart down the stretch, my goodness, they lost to STANFORD!!!
Judgment: Slightly overrated, < -4 performance
22. Auburn (13)
Analysis: Didn't see win in Gainesville coming, yet believed second in SEC firmly possible.
Judgment: Underrated, +9 performance
23. Oregon State (NR)
Analysis: Hell, the pollsters have them about here. I bought early but a few eye-opening losses caused my exodus from the bandwagon, team failed to capitalize on ten-win momentum from 2006.
Judgment: Dead on, -2 performance
24. Arkansas (15)
Analysis: Never saw a win at Baton Rouge, but thought D-Mac could keep them in the race for #2 in the West. The defeat at the hands of UK, mind you, was not a good one.
Judgment: Underrated, -9 performance
25. Miami (FL) (NR)
Analysis: Drank too much Randy Shannon Kool-Aid, 0-48 drubbing by Virginia.
Judgment: Awful, < -1 performance (awful because team isn't in Top 40)
BIGGEST HITS:
LSU, FLORIDA, USC, TENNESSEE, PENN STATE, and OREGON STATE
COLOSSAL MISFIRES:
MICHIGAN, TEXAS, FLORIDA STATE, UCLA, NEBRASKA, LOUISVILLE, and MIAMI (FL)
Finally...
HIGHEST FINAL POLL TEAMS NOT RANKED IN AUGUST
8. Illinois - Bandwagoneer for '08, Iowa loss notwithstanding
9. Arizona State - Great season for Denny-E
10. Kansas - Reesing, but didn't play anyone
12. Missouri - Finally played to expectations
18. Virginia - won more than fair share of close ones
BEST CALL: USC, specified two losses (1-2 on those games)
MOST SERENDIPITOUS CALL: OREGON, and it's not close
WORST CALL: TEXAS, and yes, it takes a lot to beat out FSU, UCLA, NEB...
The exercise: a preseason poll and how it measured up...
BOLD: indicates a sincere tip of the hat.
1. Louisiana State (5)
Analysis: O, how I loved thee all through the campaign, yet you lost my heart against the Hogs and didn't get it back. Both losses were not good.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -4 performance
2. Michigan (17)
Analysis: Actually, given their 6-1 Big Ten start, not so bad. Riiight. The 7-39 stinkbomb against Oregon and the half-hearted effort in Madison will still not likely prove as memorable as a loss to Appalachian State.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -15 performance
3. Texas (NR)
Analysis: I'm officially off the Mack Brown bandwagon, the program ran on fumes for a time without Vince Young but the parade of Big 12 losses to mediocre teams has become quite disturbing.
Judgment: Awful, < -23 performance
4. Florida (7)
Analysis: Knew Tebow would be good, knew the Gators had one of the best coaches, didn't think Auburn would get them again. Had them losing to LSU though, but not to Georgia.
Judgment: Slightly overrated, -3 performance
5. Southern California (4)
Analysis: My 10-2 forecast (nailed ORE game, as for that NEB game, err...) proved remarkably prescient. I never bought the hype. Rose Bowl? Yes, but nothing more.
Judgment: Dead on, +1 performance
6. Wisconsin (14)
Analysis: They figured to lose one to either Michigan or Ohio State, but getting housed by PSU even at Beaver Stadium was terrible. P. J. Hill didn't become a Heisman threat and the defense got gouged by Beanie and the Bucks.
Judgment: Overrated, -8 performance
7. West Virginia (16)
Analysis: Goodbye to all that, part deux. The worst home loss in school history, still, got the Big East champion part right.
Judgment: Overrated, -9 performance
8. Florida State (NR)
Analysis: They upset then-#2 BC, and, let's just move right along...
Judgment: Awful, < -18 performance
9. Georgia (1)
Analysis: Had the 10-2 record, didn't quite foresee just how formidable a two-loss team would prove this year. Missed the Florida game, too.
Judgment: Underrated, +8 performance
10. UCLA (NR)
11. Nebraska (NR)
12. Louisville (NR)
Analysis: Twenty returning starters didn't work out too well, Sam Keller never became a Heisman threat, and Brian Brohm was let down by everyone, coaches included.
Judgment: Awful, awful, and awful. < -15, < -14, < -13, respectively
13. Oklahoma (3)
Analysis: Didn't buy Bradford, do now. Didn't think much of a team that failed to conquer Boise State, thought Texas was better (oops)
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +10 performance
14. Rutgers (NR)
Analysis: Just never played with consistency, wiped out South Florida and then got dropped by Maryland. Ray Rice didn't capitalize on his team's 2006 season.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, < -11 performance
15. Penn State (25)
Analysis: Allowed OSU to run them off the field, failed to score a TD at Michigan, and closed with an ugly collapse against Sparty. More mediocrity for JoePa.
Judgment: Significantly overrated, -10 performance
16. Tennessee (13)
Analysis: Didn't see them winning the SEC East, but pretty much nailed their performance against Florida. Looked awful in Tuscaloosa, though.
Judgment: Slightly underrated, +3 performance
17. Virginia Tech (6)
Analysis: Knew LSU game was an "L," but like UGA, didn't see a two-loss team this impressive, also didn't see a conference title, oops.
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +11 performance
18. Ohio State (2)
Analysis: Well, forecast 3-4 losses. They dropped one. Third straight "odd year" with a BCS Bowl appearance. Rebuilding? Ha!
Judgment: Significantly underrated, +16 performance
19. Boise State (NR)
Analysis: Thought they would only lose once, dropped two games. Disappointing loss to Hawaii, too. Still, a good year.
Judgment: Overrated, < -6 performance
20. South Carolina (NR)
Analysis: Missed the early rise, didn't think their collapse would prove as bad. Nailed the LSU loss and UK win, expected more though from the Old Ball Coach.
Judgment: Overrated, < -5 performance
21. California (NR)
Analysis: Curiously low for August, yet a lot better than most. This team stood one score away from #1 at one time, won at Autzen, but completely fell apart down the stretch, my goodness, they lost to STANFORD!!!
Judgment: Slightly overrated, < -4 performance
22. Auburn (13)
Analysis: Didn't see win in Gainesville coming, yet believed second in SEC firmly possible.
Judgment: Underrated, +9 performance
23. Oregon State (NR)
Analysis: Hell, the pollsters have them about here. I bought early but a few eye-opening losses caused my exodus from the bandwagon, team failed to capitalize on ten-win momentum from 2006.
Judgment: Dead on, -2 performance
24. Arkansas (15)
Analysis: Never saw a win at Baton Rouge, but thought D-Mac could keep them in the race for #2 in the West. The defeat at the hands of UK, mind you, was not a good one.
Judgment: Underrated, -9 performance
25. Miami (FL) (NR)
Analysis: Drank too much Randy Shannon Kool-Aid, 0-48 drubbing by Virginia.
Judgment: Awful, < -1 performance (awful because team isn't in Top 40)
BIGGEST HITS:
LSU, FLORIDA, USC, TENNESSEE, PENN STATE, and OREGON STATE
COLOSSAL MISFIRES:
MICHIGAN, TEXAS, FLORIDA STATE, UCLA, NEBRASKA, LOUISVILLE, and MIAMI (FL)
Finally...
HIGHEST FINAL POLL TEAMS NOT RANKED IN AUGUST
8. Illinois - Bandwagoneer for '08, Iowa loss notwithstanding
9. Arizona State - Great season for Denny-E
10. Kansas - Reesing, but didn't play anyone
12. Missouri - Finally played to expectations
18. Virginia - won more than fair share of close ones
BEST CALL: USC, specified two losses (1-2 on those games)
MOST SERENDIPITOUS CALL: OREGON, and it's not close
WORST CALL: TEXAS, and yes, it takes a lot to beat out FSU, UCLA, NEB...
RT2020 Poll: Week of December 2
1. Georgia (+3)
2. Ohio State (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Southern California (+2)
5. Louisiana State (NC)
6. Virginia Tech (+1)
7. Florida (-1)
8. Illinois (+2)
9. Arizona State (+5)
10. Kansas (+1)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Missouri (-11)
13. Tennessee (NC)
14. Wisconsin (+1)
15. Arkansas (+1)
16. West Virginia (-13)
17. Michigan (+1)
18. Virginia (-2)
19. Brigham Young (-3)
20. Clemson (+3)
21. South Florida (NC)
22. Boston College (-5)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NC)
25. Penn State (NC)
In defense of the ballot...
I think I can reasonably argue that the Dawgs are the #1 team in America. First, for all of my Buckeye sympathies, this SEC school played a rougher schedule than Ohio State or even Oklahoma. Secondly, they lost a tough game to South Carolina when the OBC mattered, and boast one of the longest winning streaks in the nation. Yes, they didn't win their conference let alone their division (thanks to a loss in Knoxville), but no team, aside from USC is playing as well.
I keep OSU at #2. Mostly, I just cannot see them as the best team in the country unless they defeat an opponent in the Not Sugar. I did have them at #2 even before Missouri's embarrassing loss to the Sooners and West Virginia's, well, whatever that was in Morgantown tonight. Ohio State beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, two of them on the road, and lost only ONCE (something that matters this season) to a team perhaps destined for the Rose Bowl.
Oklahoma showed me a lot tonight, particularly in that second half after Missouri had rallied to tie late. The better athletes and the more efficient quarterback (dare we say, better?) prevailed. The loss to Texas Tech I can excuse due to Sam Bradford's concussion, the loss in Boulder I cannot. Despite their talent and reasonable schedule, two losses in conference are two losses.
USC smashed UCLA, no surprise there. Yes, the media loves them and bemoans the injured finger that derailed, well, something. A deserving Rose Bowl participant, but they didn't beat Oregon when Dennis Dixon still had two good wheels, and that loss to Stanford remains the single worst of the season.
No one loved the Bayou Bengals more than this blogger, starting from December, but I'm over them. Had they punished Tennessee today instead of lucking out on a defensive touchdown, or, more significantly, had they stopped any Arkansas runner of consequence last week, yeah, I would still sing their praises. No more. Yes, a backup quarterback, and yes thanks for denying the Vols the title of worst SEC champion in recent memory, but that does not warrant another opportunity to win it all.
2. Ohio State (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Southern California (+2)
5. Louisiana State (NC)
6. Virginia Tech (+1)
7. Florida (-1)
8. Illinois (+2)
9. Arizona State (+5)
10. Kansas (+1)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Missouri (-11)
13. Tennessee (NC)
14. Wisconsin (+1)
15. Arkansas (+1)
16. West Virginia (-13)
17. Michigan (+1)
18. Virginia (-2)
19. Brigham Young (-3)
20. Clemson (+3)
21. South Florida (NC)
22. Boston College (-5)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NC)
25. Penn State (NC)
In defense of the ballot...
I think I can reasonably argue that the Dawgs are the #1 team in America. First, for all of my Buckeye sympathies, this SEC school played a rougher schedule than Ohio State or even Oklahoma. Secondly, they lost a tough game to South Carolina when the OBC mattered, and boast one of the longest winning streaks in the nation. Yes, they didn't win their conference let alone their division (thanks to a loss in Knoxville), but no team, aside from USC is playing as well.
I keep OSU at #2. Mostly, I just cannot see them as the best team in the country unless they defeat an opponent in the Not Sugar. I did have them at #2 even before Missouri's embarrassing loss to the Sooners and West Virginia's, well, whatever that was in Morgantown tonight. Ohio State beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, two of them on the road, and lost only ONCE (something that matters this season) to a team perhaps destined for the Rose Bowl.
Oklahoma showed me a lot tonight, particularly in that second half after Missouri had rallied to tie late. The better athletes and the more efficient quarterback (dare we say, better?) prevailed. The loss to Texas Tech I can excuse due to Sam Bradford's concussion, the loss in Boulder I cannot. Despite their talent and reasonable schedule, two losses in conference are two losses.
USC smashed UCLA, no surprise there. Yes, the media loves them and bemoans the injured finger that derailed, well, something. A deserving Rose Bowl participant, but they didn't beat Oregon when Dennis Dixon still had two good wheels, and that loss to Stanford remains the single worst of the season.
No one loved the Bayou Bengals more than this blogger, starting from December, but I'm over them. Had they punished Tennessee today instead of lucking out on a defensive touchdown, or, more significantly, had they stopped any Arkansas runner of consequence last week, yeah, I would still sing their praises. No more. Yes, a backup quarterback, and yes thanks for denying the Vols the title of worst SEC champion in recent memory, but that does not warrant another opportunity to win it all.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Week 14 Preview: Prelude to a Championship
They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just one favorite to win a game to qualify for the Not Sugar just over a month from now. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for another team (MIZZ and WVA) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a seven-point home loss in early November. Here sit the Ohio State Buckeyes, 10-1 (scrap the D-1AA game, as the BCS does), waiting for these two teams.
They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just two favorites to win a game to qualify for a BCS game, three for the Rose Bowl. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for three of these four teams (MIZZ, TEN, BC, HI) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a penalty-filled home loss to Michigan which cost them the Big 10 title. Here sit the Illinois Fightin' Illini, waiting for those three teams.
VERDICT: Big 10 denied, yessir, lot of money riding on this slate of games for Mr. Delaney and the crew...
Missouri v. Oklahoma (San Antonio): The Big 12 Championship. Had the Sooners avoided the upset bug in Lubbock, this game would pit #1 v. #2 perhaps, even so, only one team was headed to N'Orleans. I liked the way the Tigers played in Norman until their self-destructive nature kicked in leading to a 31-41 loss to Sam Bradford and OU, still smarting after a dubious collapse in Boulder. Bob Stoops is the better coach, Oklahoma has the better athletes, but is Chase Daniel and, gasp, Missouri speed enough to put a perennial mediocrity on Bourbon Street? There is a chance if Missouri loses a close one the BCS will keep them above Kansas and thus in line for a possible BCS game. The North has won just TWICE in this contest since the turn of the century (2001, a upset of #2 Texas by Colorado; 2003, a smackdown for the ages of #1-by-a-country-mile Oklahoma courtesy of Darren Sproles and Kansas State) and OU has smashed through several times. The support of the college football world, what of it is not spent in Morgantown, rides with the feel-good story of those boys from Columbia. Will the Buckeyes once again play the role of villains? No, in a classic, Missouri marches on and Chase Daniel takes the Heisman Trophy from Tim Tebow. MIZZ 37 OU 31
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia: Yes, folks are often impressed by shiny objects, and it doesn't come shinier than a 66-21 whipping of UCONN to sew up a conference title. This game will determine which week WVA plays in N'Orleans, heaven knows they want zero part of LSU. Look for this one to remain undecided into the second half, it is the Backyard Brawl after all and the 2007 season might have one more epic upset in store for us. Nah, who am I kidding? The Mountaineer defense bent but didn't break last week, if they can hold the Panthers to twenty-five, this one is a blowout. More hosannas, thus, on the way. WVA 56 PIT 16
Boston College v. Virginia Tech: The ACC Championship and a rematch of a stirring comeback/collapse earlier this season in Blacksburg. At that time, Matt Ryan seemed to have his hands all over the Heisman, a pair of bad losses plus a rejeuvenation at Clemson ended the Golden Eagles title hopes but do give them a credible Orange Bowl shot. Tech is the better team with a better defense but an inferior quarterback, which means the game is once again in Ryan's hands, with a seat in NYC beckoning. Chestnut Hill gorges itself over oranges. BC 27 VT 23
LSU v. Tennessee: The SEC Championship and a thorough letdown. Not only is surging Georgia not here but neither is a one-loss (de facto unbeaten in SEC-speak) Bayou Bengal squad. Instead we have the bumbling Vols with their embattled coach taking on a distracted Tiger team that cannot feel too confident about their play as of late. Fortunately, Tennessee doesn't run the ball like it used to, you know, back when it last won the conference title (1998?!?). Years ago, Matt Mauck flummoxed a gassed #2 Tennessee, whose running back had nothing left after an awesome display in Gainesville the week prior, and cost them a title bout with Miami. Revenge of 2001? Eh, not so much. LSU (Coach Miles last game?) 30 UT 20
UCLA @ USC: The battle for the Ax. Revenge. Less than fondly remembering a horse-whipping in 2005 at the hands of Bush, White, and Co., the Baby Blues rose up and decimated Trojan hopes in 2006 to the tune of a 9-13 loss that ushered Florida into the Not Fiesta. Far from being incensed, Pete Carroll should extend some gratitude: the Bruins bounced Oregon from the Rose Bowl perch last week, now, once again, it is all on UCLA. Not close. USC 51 UCLA 21
Washington @ Hawaii: Our last unbeaten in D-1A looks to enter Fiesta Bowl deliberations with a win over a Pac-10 doormat beaten down by perhaps the nation's toughest schedule. While Illinois looks on praying not only for a Huskies upset but also that men in blazers don't think upon their Iowa performance, Colt Brennan, with, say, 7 TD and 700 yards passing, can join Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, and Ryan in the Big Apple. Does Hawaii deserve a BCS bid over Illinois? No, but that's coming from a Buckeye sympathizer. Will they get one? Yes. HI 45 WASH 36
Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 1, MIZZ win)
Daniel, McFadden, Tebow, Brennan, and Ryan
Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 2, MIZZ loss)
Tebow, McFadden, Daniel, Brennan, and Ryan
Predicted ballot: Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, Brennan, Ryan
Predicted BCS lineup:
Not Sugar: #1 Missouri v. #2 West Virginia (Big 12 and Big East teams)
Fiesta Bowl and Orange Bowl lose conference champions
Rose Bowl: Ohio State and USC
Sugar Bowl: LSU and Kansas
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State and Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Boston College and Georgia
They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just two favorites to win a game to qualify for a BCS game, three for the Rose Bowl. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for three of these four teams (MIZZ, TEN, BC, HI) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a penalty-filled home loss to Michigan which cost them the Big 10 title. Here sit the Illinois Fightin' Illini, waiting for those three teams.
VERDICT: Big 10 denied, yessir, lot of money riding on this slate of games for Mr. Delaney and the crew...
Missouri v. Oklahoma (San Antonio): The Big 12 Championship. Had the Sooners avoided the upset bug in Lubbock, this game would pit #1 v. #2 perhaps, even so, only one team was headed to N'Orleans. I liked the way the Tigers played in Norman until their self-destructive nature kicked in leading to a 31-41 loss to Sam Bradford and OU, still smarting after a dubious collapse in Boulder. Bob Stoops is the better coach, Oklahoma has the better athletes, but is Chase Daniel and, gasp, Missouri speed enough to put a perennial mediocrity on Bourbon Street? There is a chance if Missouri loses a close one the BCS will keep them above Kansas and thus in line for a possible BCS game. The North has won just TWICE in this contest since the turn of the century (2001, a upset of #2 Texas by Colorado; 2003, a smackdown for the ages of #1-by-a-country-mile Oklahoma courtesy of Darren Sproles and Kansas State) and OU has smashed through several times. The support of the college football world, what of it is not spent in Morgantown, rides with the feel-good story of those boys from Columbia. Will the Buckeyes once again play the role of villains? No, in a classic, Missouri marches on and Chase Daniel takes the Heisman Trophy from Tim Tebow. MIZZ 37 OU 31
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia: Yes, folks are often impressed by shiny objects, and it doesn't come shinier than a 66-21 whipping of UCONN to sew up a conference title. This game will determine which week WVA plays in N'Orleans, heaven knows they want zero part of LSU. Look for this one to remain undecided into the second half, it is the Backyard Brawl after all and the 2007 season might have one more epic upset in store for us. Nah, who am I kidding? The Mountaineer defense bent but didn't break last week, if they can hold the Panthers to twenty-five, this one is a blowout. More hosannas, thus, on the way. WVA 56 PIT 16
Boston College v. Virginia Tech: The ACC Championship and a rematch of a stirring comeback/collapse earlier this season in Blacksburg. At that time, Matt Ryan seemed to have his hands all over the Heisman, a pair of bad losses plus a rejeuvenation at Clemson ended the Golden Eagles title hopes but do give them a credible Orange Bowl shot. Tech is the better team with a better defense but an inferior quarterback, which means the game is once again in Ryan's hands, with a seat in NYC beckoning. Chestnut Hill gorges itself over oranges. BC 27 VT 23
LSU v. Tennessee: The SEC Championship and a thorough letdown. Not only is surging Georgia not here but neither is a one-loss (de facto unbeaten in SEC-speak) Bayou Bengal squad. Instead we have the bumbling Vols with their embattled coach taking on a distracted Tiger team that cannot feel too confident about their play as of late. Fortunately, Tennessee doesn't run the ball like it used to, you know, back when it last won the conference title (1998?!?). Years ago, Matt Mauck flummoxed a gassed #2 Tennessee, whose running back had nothing left after an awesome display in Gainesville the week prior, and cost them a title bout with Miami. Revenge of 2001? Eh, not so much. LSU (Coach Miles last game?) 30 UT 20
UCLA @ USC: The battle for the Ax. Revenge. Less than fondly remembering a horse-whipping in 2005 at the hands of Bush, White, and Co., the Baby Blues rose up and decimated Trojan hopes in 2006 to the tune of a 9-13 loss that ushered Florida into the Not Fiesta. Far from being incensed, Pete Carroll should extend some gratitude: the Bruins bounced Oregon from the Rose Bowl perch last week, now, once again, it is all on UCLA. Not close. USC 51 UCLA 21
Washington @ Hawaii: Our last unbeaten in D-1A looks to enter Fiesta Bowl deliberations with a win over a Pac-10 doormat beaten down by perhaps the nation's toughest schedule. While Illinois looks on praying not only for a Huskies upset but also that men in blazers don't think upon their Iowa performance, Colt Brennan, with, say, 7 TD and 700 yards passing, can join Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, and Ryan in the Big Apple. Does Hawaii deserve a BCS bid over Illinois? No, but that's coming from a Buckeye sympathizer. Will they get one? Yes. HI 45 WASH 36
Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 1, MIZZ win)
Daniel, McFadden, Tebow, Brennan, and Ryan
Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 2, MIZZ loss)
Tebow, McFadden, Daniel, Brennan, and Ryan
Predicted ballot: Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, Brennan, Ryan
Predicted BCS lineup:
Not Sugar: #1 Missouri v. #2 West Virginia (Big 12 and Big East teams)
Fiesta Bowl and Orange Bowl lose conference champions
Rose Bowl: Ohio State and USC
Sugar Bowl: LSU and Kansas
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State and Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Boston College and Georgia
Sunday, November 25, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of November 25
1. Missouri (+1)
2. Ohio State (+1)
3. West Virginia (+1)
4. Georgia (+1)
5. Louisiana State (-4)
6. Southern California (+4)
7. Virginia Tech (+3)
8. Florida (NC)
9. Kansas (-3)
10. Illinois (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+4)
12. Auburn (+1)
13. Tennessee (-1)
14. Arizona State (-7)
15. Wisconsin (+5)
16. Arkansas (+8)
17. Boston College (+5)
18. Michigan (+3)
19. Hawaii (+4)
20. Virginia (-4)
21. South Florida (NR)
22. Brigham Young (NR)
23. Clemson (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Penn State (NR)
Sublime: #1 Missouri, #3 West Virginia, and #6 Southern California
Laid an Egg: #5 LSU, #9 Kansas, and #14 Arizona State
Unreal. That was my initial reaction to the end of LSU's title run yesterday to Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, some H-back, and practically everyone who wanted to run the ball against the once-fearsome Tigers. Almost 400 yards--on the ground. An inability to force a key turnover late in the second half or on three Hog OT drives. I had believed in the Bayou Bengals since last December, even to the point of assuming without #1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell that this crew would prove better than 11-2. Yes, I thought the offense would rate as less explosive sans two NFL first-round picks at wideout, but I didn't count on the defense. Yes, D-Mac is spectacular and maybe a Heisman threat again (more below), but no self-respecting defense should allow an improvised wishbone to gash it time after time. Yes, this same thing happened to Ohio State, also at home, but to a better team with a uniquely-skilled quarterback. Also, the Bucks coughed it up repeatedly, LSU didn't make a mistake until Matt Flynn's last pass deep in the third overtime. And still lost.
Les Miles, it is now safe to pursue the Michigan job, but what a clunker to end your meaningful LSU tenure. All of those athletes and promse, yet two-losses every season. Last year, the schedule made that understandable, this season? Not so much. No program in America had a more title-friendly slate than the Bayou Bengals and they failed to get it done, and the fact both defeats came in triple overtime shouldn't ease their pain or the criticism. Don't worry, a trip to N'Orleans is still in the offering, yet, remarkably, with only the same stakes as last year.
Congratulations to the new #1 and illest of luck against Oklahoma next week. Chase Daniel had a Heisman Trophy moment in KC, but he has to do it again or the Tigers will blow their best opportunity in decades. Kansas proved that they were not the best team in the nation, sorry computers. They beat no one and lost the only game that mattered, in the words I once presumptively addressed to WVA, goodbye to all that. Nice season, but not a worthy performance of an 11-0 team, yes, the game could've been played in Lawrence, but Daniel was simply the best player on the field, the match will prove tougher, however, next week.
Yes, crushing a ranked conference opponent at home is very impressive, but don't tell me the Mountaineers didn't run up the score! Patrick White played a phenomenal game and WVA just hammered the overrated Huskies to death. Some of those plays were all White and any BCS Championship Game opponent is going to have a difficult time with that explosive, high-octane rushing attack. If you can make White throw it, well, you should beat this team, if not, ugh. I see one Mr. Schlabach, drank the Kool-Aid in full, we'll see, sir, we'll see. Hit this team in the mouth like South Florida and see what happens. This school has never won a national championship and failed miserably in its two efforts (1988 and 1993) with undefeated seasons. UCONN was a lucky team that got smoked, if anyone thinks yesterday's result was more than that, I don't know what else to tell you. On the other hand, give Mr. Schlabach credit, unlike other sniveling, condescending anti-OSUers, he came right out and said it, point-blank: Ohio State has no chance to beat West Virginia and should save themselves the embarrassment of trying. Fair enough. Forty-one to fourteen has a loud ring.
Boise State, overrated by much of the country (pointing at self), should not appear in the next AP poll. They played two borderline tough teams and got smoked by both, last-place Washington and the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii. Look, Colt Brennan is a top quarterback and he played tremendously last night, but spare me this talk of Hawaii as a Top 15 team. You're telling me they're more deserving of a BCS bid then Georgia or Illinois, or even the loser of the Big 12 North title game? I'm just not buying it. A win next week, though, and they will certainly receive a bid.
Kudos to Pete Carroll and USC for finally showing what 99% of the football world forecast in August (but not me, hey, give me something after the LSU/UM Not Sugar prognostication) by dismantling a good ASU team in Tempe. Had he stayed healthy and played like this all year, John David Booty likely takes the Heisman Trophy. In any event, the Trojans are well-positioned to finish in the Top 5 for the sixth consecutive season, the longest stretch since Florida State earned FOURTEEN such marks from 1987-2000.
BCS Prediction:
1) Missouri
2) West Virginia
3) Ohio State
The Bucks will probably trail badly in the human polls because people tend to be impressed by shiny objects, but the computers may look kinder on their one-loss season.
Heisman ballot:
1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
2) Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
3) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Tebow was tremendous yet again, but the ball is entirely in Daniel's court, even if he isn't quite 40-49 next week, a win over likely favored OU will make this a fascinating three-way race that may hinge on which southern player carries the SEC region. D-Mac had his best performance of the season in the biggest game, knocking the favorite out of the national title picture in the process.
2. Ohio State (+1)
3. West Virginia (+1)
4. Georgia (+1)
5. Louisiana State (-4)
6. Southern California (+4)
7. Virginia Tech (+3)
8. Florida (NC)
9. Kansas (-3)
10. Illinois (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+4)
12. Auburn (+1)
13. Tennessee (-1)
14. Arizona State (-7)
15. Wisconsin (+5)
16. Arkansas (+8)
17. Boston College (+5)
18. Michigan (+3)
19. Hawaii (+4)
20. Virginia (-4)
21. South Florida (NR)
22. Brigham Young (NR)
23. Clemson (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Penn State (NR)
Sublime: #1 Missouri, #3 West Virginia, and #6 Southern California
Laid an Egg: #5 LSU, #9 Kansas, and #14 Arizona State
Unreal. That was my initial reaction to the end of LSU's title run yesterday to Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, some H-back, and practically everyone who wanted to run the ball against the once-fearsome Tigers. Almost 400 yards--on the ground. An inability to force a key turnover late in the second half or on three Hog OT drives. I had believed in the Bayou Bengals since last December, even to the point of assuming without #1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell that this crew would prove better than 11-2. Yes, I thought the offense would rate as less explosive sans two NFL first-round picks at wideout, but I didn't count on the defense. Yes, D-Mac is spectacular and maybe a Heisman threat again (more below), but no self-respecting defense should allow an improvised wishbone to gash it time after time. Yes, this same thing happened to Ohio State, also at home, but to a better team with a uniquely-skilled quarterback. Also, the Bucks coughed it up repeatedly, LSU didn't make a mistake until Matt Flynn's last pass deep in the third overtime. And still lost.
Les Miles, it is now safe to pursue the Michigan job, but what a clunker to end your meaningful LSU tenure. All of those athletes and promse, yet two-losses every season. Last year, the schedule made that understandable, this season? Not so much. No program in America had a more title-friendly slate than the Bayou Bengals and they failed to get it done, and the fact both defeats came in triple overtime shouldn't ease their pain or the criticism. Don't worry, a trip to N'Orleans is still in the offering, yet, remarkably, with only the same stakes as last year.
Congratulations to the new #1 and illest of luck against Oklahoma next week. Chase Daniel had a Heisman Trophy moment in KC, but he has to do it again or the Tigers will blow their best opportunity in decades. Kansas proved that they were not the best team in the nation, sorry computers. They beat no one and lost the only game that mattered, in the words I once presumptively addressed to WVA, goodbye to all that. Nice season, but not a worthy performance of an 11-0 team, yes, the game could've been played in Lawrence, but Daniel was simply the best player on the field, the match will prove tougher, however, next week.
Yes, crushing a ranked conference opponent at home is very impressive, but don't tell me the Mountaineers didn't run up the score! Patrick White played a phenomenal game and WVA just hammered the overrated Huskies to death. Some of those plays were all White and any BCS Championship Game opponent is going to have a difficult time with that explosive, high-octane rushing attack. If you can make White throw it, well, you should beat this team, if not, ugh. I see one Mr. Schlabach, drank the Kool-Aid in full, we'll see, sir, we'll see. Hit this team in the mouth like South Florida and see what happens. This school has never won a national championship and failed miserably in its two efforts (1988 and 1993) with undefeated seasons. UCONN was a lucky team that got smoked, if anyone thinks yesterday's result was more than that, I don't know what else to tell you. On the other hand, give Mr. Schlabach credit, unlike other sniveling, condescending anti-OSUers, he came right out and said it, point-blank: Ohio State has no chance to beat West Virginia and should save themselves the embarrassment of trying. Fair enough. Forty-one to fourteen has a loud ring.
Boise State, overrated by much of the country (pointing at self), should not appear in the next AP poll. They played two borderline tough teams and got smoked by both, last-place Washington and the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii. Look, Colt Brennan is a top quarterback and he played tremendously last night, but spare me this talk of Hawaii as a Top 15 team. You're telling me they're more deserving of a BCS bid then Georgia or Illinois, or even the loser of the Big 12 North title game? I'm just not buying it. A win next week, though, and they will certainly receive a bid.
Kudos to Pete Carroll and USC for finally showing what 99% of the football world forecast in August (but not me, hey, give me something after the LSU/UM Not Sugar prognostication) by dismantling a good ASU team in Tempe. Had he stayed healthy and played like this all year, John David Booty likely takes the Heisman Trophy. In any event, the Trojans are well-positioned to finish in the Top 5 for the sixth consecutive season, the longest stretch since Florida State earned FOURTEEN such marks from 1987-2000.
BCS Prediction:
1) Missouri
2) West Virginia
3) Ohio State
The Bucks will probably trail badly in the human polls because people tend to be impressed by shiny objects, but the computers may look kinder on their one-loss season.
Heisman ballot:
1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
2) Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
3) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Tebow was tremendous yet again, but the ball is entirely in Daniel's court, even if he isn't quite 40-49 next week, a win over likely favored OU will make this a fascinating three-way race that may hinge on which southern player carries the SEC region. D-Mac had his best performance of the season in the biggest game, knocking the favorite out of the national title picture in the process.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of November 18
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Missouri (+3)
3. Ohio State (+6)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Georgia (+2)
6. Kansas (-2)
7. Arizona State (+1)
8. Florida (+2)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Southern California (+2)
11. Texas (+4)
12. Illinois (+5)
13. Auburn (+6)
14. Tennessee (+2)
15. Oklahoma (-12)
16. Virginia (+7)
17. Boise State (+3)
18. Oregon (-16)
19. Connecticut (NR)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. Michigan (-7)
22. Boston College (NR)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Arkansas (NR)
25. Florida State (NR)
When your QB goes down... #2 Oregon and #3 Oklahoma
Tip of my hat: #22 Boston College and #23 Hawaii(!!!) for impressive road wins
After Illinois at #12, I have no real idea, winner of BSU/HAW to get validation
Musings...
LSU's offense remains questionable, but if they don't have to play Georgia they should cruise past Arkansas and Tennessee to host the Not Sugar, which, of course, they will win. SEC teams, don't you know, need not even play in the final game to be ranked #1...
My sympathies to the Oregon faithful, one play from 14-0 with a Heisman nearly in the grasp, a tipped pass in the endzone began a stretch that ultimately led to Dennis Dixon's exit from this season and as likely as not Oregon's shot at even making the Rose Bowl. If USC can defeat Arizona State and Oregon wins out, they will still play (likely) Ohio State, but without their greatest benefactor, can they win? I seem them struggling to beat UCLA.
Kansas hater? They have yet to beat a single team in the AP Poll, but they will get a stiff test next week in Kansas City. Missouri's loss to Oklahoma took yet another step down the ladder with the Sooners debacle in Lubbock last night, would beating a two-loss OU team for the Big 12 title to finish 12-1 really seem all that impressive? The one thing they have going for them is they beat Illinois, which Ohio State failed to do. If they win it, they will go. If Kansas wins out, they will go. Nonetheless, a big piece of OSU's puzzle to reach the title game panned out with the Red Raiders win.
West Virginia may claim to have a case too, if they beat Connecticut and Pittsburgh to claim the outright Big East title, only a loss to South Florida has blemished their season. On the other hand, they don't have a signature victory, with their biggest win of the year coming at Piscataway. Will the Bucks jump them in the latest BCS poll? Hmmm...
As for Ohio State, here are some years for you: NEVER, 1981, 1963, NEVER. Answers? The last time the Bucks won both at State College and Ann Arbor in the same season; the last time OSU won two straight games in Michigan Stadium; the last time the Scarelet and Gray won FOUR straight in the series (unbeaten from 1972-75, but with a tie); the last time OSU won SIX out of SEVEN in the series. If you consider that Michigan ended 1997 with an 8-1-1 mark in the last ten meetings, they've gone only 3-7 since, two of those wins in 1999 and 2000. A vicious OSU defense plus the elements limited Michigan to a season-low in total yardage and the fourth-lowest point total in the history of the game.
Chris Wells is a bona fide Heisman candidate for next season and may have back-doored his way into the Top 5 for this season. Ohio State didn't attempt a pass in the second half, and absent a few plays, Beanie rumbled and rumbled, scoring twice, including a 62-yard back-breaker that will be seen on many August Heisman campaign videos next season. If Todd Boeckman can play better next year and a few juniors stick around, this is your preseason #2 team, behind...
The Gators, sigh. I've resigned myself to the fate of Tim Tebow winning the Heisman Trophy despite Florida's lack of a division title. Without him, quite simply, Florida would be struggling for bowl eligibility. The schedule was nasty this season, an older defense and an even more experienced #15 will bode very well for Urban Meyer next season, even more so if LSU is dealing with an expected coaching change.
Bottom line: OSU didn't get everything they needed this week, but a nice eleven-point win over Michigan plus the end of Oregon and (critically) Oklahoma might just make it a race to the finish between West Virginia (which can impress or extinguish themselves) and Tressel-led Bucks. Of all the Big 12 teams to lose today, OU was the one they needed, simply because OU is more likely, with its better athletes to beat the Big 12 North champion, especially if it's Kansas. Missouri played them well, in Norman, despite a so-so game from Heisman contender Chase Daniel.
Preview for next week unavailable due to travel, key games....
Southern California @ Arizona State: This is a game made for USC and their experience. It's very hard to win here, especially at night, but give the Trojans the edge and the inside track to Pasadena. USC 31 ASU 24
Boise State @ Hawaii: If Colt Brennan can't play, the Rainbow Warriors have no chance. I think he goes, but the reigning Fiesta Bowl champions can smell another visit, wouldn't OU be thrilled to see them again? BSU 29 HAW 23
Connecticut @ West Virginia: For the Big East title, the mystery-fluke team versus the one that always gets unnerved in these situations. A decisive win here either jumps the Bucks or gives them some breathing room. White and Slaton roll, a loss here would be inexcusable. WVA 45 CT 13
IRON BOWL: The South's greatest rivalry has lost some of its luster, namely, ALA cannot beat AUB. Nick Saban was brought here to win this game above all others, but the Tide have sleepwalked through two straight games and lost three straight overall. That can all go away with a tough win on the Plains. No, AUB is just a better team. AUB 19 ALA 12
Arkansas @ Louisiana State: Strange as it sounds, Darren McFadden can still win the Heisman Trophy, with a 150-yard and two score game against a defense recently punctured by.... Mississippi??? Ugh. ARK running game versus the Tiger defensive line, strength versus strength. Not at the Rouge, though. LSU 30 ARK 17
GAME OF THE WEEK...
Missouri @ Kansas: Two enter, one will leave with the division crown, which for the first time since 2001 actually means something, perhaps more so with OU reeling. Two high-scoring offenses with highly-rated quarterbacks. It is safe to say these two schools will never play a bigger game than this one. I just the Tigers are a little better than the Jayhawks, who foolishly scheduled this game away from Lawrence. The last undefeated Big Six conference school goes down, and hard. Chase Daniel books a ticket to New York City. MIZZ 34 KS 20
Heisman ballot (11/18): Tebow, Daniel, Dixon, Wells, and White
Projected BCS Standings (11/18):
1) LSU
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) West Virginia
5) Ohio State*
*Mainly because OU's computer ranking of #7 fell below OSU's own #6 last week, this should help the Mountaineers hold off a Buckeye surge in the polls. I expect OSU to be ranked #5 and WVA #4, it should prove very, very close though.
2. Missouri (+3)
3. Ohio State (+6)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Georgia (+2)
6. Kansas (-2)
7. Arizona State (+1)
8. Florida (+2)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Southern California (+2)
11. Texas (+4)
12. Illinois (+5)
13. Auburn (+6)
14. Tennessee (+2)
15. Oklahoma (-12)
16. Virginia (+7)
17. Boise State (+3)
18. Oregon (-16)
19. Connecticut (NR)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. Michigan (-7)
22. Boston College (NR)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Arkansas (NR)
25. Florida State (NR)
When your QB goes down... #2 Oregon and #3 Oklahoma
Tip of my hat: #22 Boston College and #23 Hawaii(!!!) for impressive road wins
After Illinois at #12, I have no real idea, winner of BSU/HAW to get validation
Musings...
LSU's offense remains questionable, but if they don't have to play Georgia they should cruise past Arkansas and Tennessee to host the Not Sugar, which, of course, they will win. SEC teams, don't you know, need not even play in the final game to be ranked #1...
My sympathies to the Oregon faithful, one play from 14-0 with a Heisman nearly in the grasp, a tipped pass in the endzone began a stretch that ultimately led to Dennis Dixon's exit from this season and as likely as not Oregon's shot at even making the Rose Bowl. If USC can defeat Arizona State and Oregon wins out, they will still play (likely) Ohio State, but without their greatest benefactor, can they win? I seem them struggling to beat UCLA.
Kansas hater? They have yet to beat a single team in the AP Poll, but they will get a stiff test next week in Kansas City. Missouri's loss to Oklahoma took yet another step down the ladder with the Sooners debacle in Lubbock last night, would beating a two-loss OU team for the Big 12 title to finish 12-1 really seem all that impressive? The one thing they have going for them is they beat Illinois, which Ohio State failed to do. If they win it, they will go. If Kansas wins out, they will go. Nonetheless, a big piece of OSU's puzzle to reach the title game panned out with the Red Raiders win.
West Virginia may claim to have a case too, if they beat Connecticut and Pittsburgh to claim the outright Big East title, only a loss to South Florida has blemished their season. On the other hand, they don't have a signature victory, with their biggest win of the year coming at Piscataway. Will the Bucks jump them in the latest BCS poll? Hmmm...
As for Ohio State, here are some years for you: NEVER, 1981, 1963, NEVER. Answers? The last time the Bucks won both at State College and Ann Arbor in the same season; the last time OSU won two straight games in Michigan Stadium; the last time the Scarelet and Gray won FOUR straight in the series (unbeaten from 1972-75, but with a tie); the last time OSU won SIX out of SEVEN in the series. If you consider that Michigan ended 1997 with an 8-1-1 mark in the last ten meetings, they've gone only 3-7 since, two of those wins in 1999 and 2000. A vicious OSU defense plus the elements limited Michigan to a season-low in total yardage and the fourth-lowest point total in the history of the game.
Chris Wells is a bona fide Heisman candidate for next season and may have back-doored his way into the Top 5 for this season. Ohio State didn't attempt a pass in the second half, and absent a few plays, Beanie rumbled and rumbled, scoring twice, including a 62-yard back-breaker that will be seen on many August Heisman campaign videos next season. If Todd Boeckman can play better next year and a few juniors stick around, this is your preseason #2 team, behind...
The Gators, sigh. I've resigned myself to the fate of Tim Tebow winning the Heisman Trophy despite Florida's lack of a division title. Without him, quite simply, Florida would be struggling for bowl eligibility. The schedule was nasty this season, an older defense and an even more experienced #15 will bode very well for Urban Meyer next season, even more so if LSU is dealing with an expected coaching change.
Bottom line: OSU didn't get everything they needed this week, but a nice eleven-point win over Michigan plus the end of Oregon and (critically) Oklahoma might just make it a race to the finish between West Virginia (which can impress or extinguish themselves) and Tressel-led Bucks. Of all the Big 12 teams to lose today, OU was the one they needed, simply because OU is more likely, with its better athletes to beat the Big 12 North champion, especially if it's Kansas. Missouri played them well, in Norman, despite a so-so game from Heisman contender Chase Daniel.
Preview for next week unavailable due to travel, key games....
Southern California @ Arizona State: This is a game made for USC and their experience. It's very hard to win here, especially at night, but give the Trojans the edge and the inside track to Pasadena. USC 31 ASU 24
Boise State @ Hawaii: If Colt Brennan can't play, the Rainbow Warriors have no chance. I think he goes, but the reigning Fiesta Bowl champions can smell another visit, wouldn't OU be thrilled to see them again? BSU 29 HAW 23
Connecticut @ West Virginia: For the Big East title, the mystery-fluke team versus the one that always gets unnerved in these situations. A decisive win here either jumps the Bucks or gives them some breathing room. White and Slaton roll, a loss here would be inexcusable. WVA 45 CT 13
IRON BOWL: The South's greatest rivalry has lost some of its luster, namely, ALA cannot beat AUB. Nick Saban was brought here to win this game above all others, but the Tide have sleepwalked through two straight games and lost three straight overall. That can all go away with a tough win on the Plains. No, AUB is just a better team. AUB 19 ALA 12
Arkansas @ Louisiana State: Strange as it sounds, Darren McFadden can still win the Heisman Trophy, with a 150-yard and two score game against a defense recently punctured by.... Mississippi??? Ugh. ARK running game versus the Tiger defensive line, strength versus strength. Not at the Rouge, though. LSU 30 ARK 17
GAME OF THE WEEK...
Missouri @ Kansas: Two enter, one will leave with the division crown, which for the first time since 2001 actually means something, perhaps more so with OU reeling. Two high-scoring offenses with highly-rated quarterbacks. It is safe to say these two schools will never play a bigger game than this one. I just the Tigers are a little better than the Jayhawks, who foolishly scheduled this game away from Lawrence. The last undefeated Big Six conference school goes down, and hard. Chase Daniel books a ticket to New York City. MIZZ 34 KS 20
Heisman ballot (11/18): Tebow, Daniel, Dixon, Wells, and White
Projected BCS Standings (11/18):
1) LSU
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) West Virginia
5) Ohio State*
*Mainly because OU's computer ranking of #7 fell below OSU's own #6 last week, this should help the Mountaineers hold off a Buckeye surge in the polls. I expect OSU to be ranked #5 and WVA #4, it should prove very, very close though.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Week 12 Preview: Ecstasy of Small Minds
Fans around the country, at one time or another, truly believe the national media is not on their side: obviously, these individuals are paranoid, but in the case of Ohio State they are absolutely right. Rather than NOT voting OSU #1--hell, as a decided partisan I never did--the media belittled their accomplishments (no real non-conference schedule, uh, what about Kansas, and how in the world does their computer ranking look so good? Wins over the Sooners, haven't played. Wins over Missouri, haven't played. Wins over Texas, uh, won't play. At all.) Sorry about that rant back there. The NYT article which recapped the game reeked of Eastern elitism from a certified Buckeye disparager, Mr. Pete Thamel. Rather than having the courage to offer his own opinion, i.e. Buckeyes suck, he hid behind the mirth emanating from southern quarters.
Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.
It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...
Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13
Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12
Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21
Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23
West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24
Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27
Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35
Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24
Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13
Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White
Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)
Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%
Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.
It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...
Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13
Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12
Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21
Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23
West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24
Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27
Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35
Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24
Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13
Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White
Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)
Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%
Sunday, November 11, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of November 11
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Kansas (+2)
5. Missouri (NC)
6. West Virginia (+1)
7. Georgia (+3)
8. Arizona State (NC)
9. Ohio State (-6)
10. Florida (+2)
11. Virginia Tech (+4)
12. Southern California (+1)
13. Clemson (+9)
14. Michigan (-5)
15. Texas (+1)
16. Tennessee (+4)
17. Illinois (+8)
18. Mississippi State (NR)
19. Auburn (-8)
20. Boise State (+2)
21. Cincinnati (+2)
22. Virginia (NR)
23. Penn State (NR)
24. Kentucky (NR)
25. Maryland (NR)
End of the Dream: #9 Ohio State
Utter Fraud (but still better than Hawaii): Boston College
Poise and Composure: #1 LSU, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Kansas
Embarrassing losses: #14 Michigan and #19 Auburn
Rapid Risers: #13(???) Clemson, #17 Illinois, #18 Mississippi State
Heisman ballot: Dennis Dixon, Tim Tebow, Chase Daniel, and Patrick White
Top Ten for BCS Bowls: LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan (hint, hint for next week), and Virginia Tech (projected conference champions) + USC/Arizona State, Kansas, Georgia/Florida, and, aaaaaarrrrrrrggggggghhhhhh, that team from the islands.
Not Sugar: #1 LSU v. #2 Oregon
Orange: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia
Sugar: Oklahoma v. Georgia
Fiesta: Kansas v. Hawaii
Rose: Arizona State v. Michigan
I think the Rose Bowl is inclined to take a Pac-10 team as their first choice (ORE's slot) whereas the Sugar (LSU's) would feel persuaded to take an 11-1 Oklahoma team probably rated #3 in the BCS. If the Jayhawks beat Missouri, I think they are assured of a spot, losing to OU would keep them in the Top 6 of the BCS standings. The Buckeyes, despite 1997, 2003, and 2005, cannot get in with two losses, they won't even rate in the Top 12 if that happens.
Capital One (maybe?) Bowl bound: #9 Ohio State, after all, should Illinois win out, they would have the tiebreaker for #2 in the Big 10, yes, a lot was lost yesterday.
Depressed thoughts of an OSU partisan...
Illinois played almost the perfect game yesterday in Ohio Stadium, perhaps calling on the spirits of prior Illini teams that vanquished OSU in C-Bus. Zero turnovers and one penalty do a lot of wins make, even on the road, even at the alleged #1 team in all the land. Time will only tell if this was the breakout game for Juice Williams, who finally showed his prodigious potential. I cannot recall a team in memory to rush for more than 250 yards on the banks of the O-River. Yes, an eighty-yard run (plus fumble???) may have inflated their stats a bit, but the much-celebrated linebacking corps made zero plays, forced zero mistakes, and generally looked as feeble against the run as the Bucks did in Ann Arbor four years prior: gulp. I guess the positive news for the country is that the clearly-not-Top-4-conference Big 10 will receive only one BCS team, kind of humiliating, but certainly fair. Both the Pac-10 and the SEC emphatically deserve two teams, the latter possibly three but the rules don't allow it. Coach Tressel has a LOT of work to do to get his troops ready for The Game. The stench is bad, but another win in Michigan Stadium would at least lock down the Rose Bowl, very possibly to draw the same team they last played there (ASU).
Kudos to the rest of the Top 5, particularly the Jayhawks. No, I still don't think they can beat Oklahoma, but if they do, goodness, someone is going to be very unhappy among the triumvirate, probably Oregon. Moral: don't lose a home game, particularly not to a team that nosedives the rest of the season.
I had to think twice about ranking OSU above Florida, and by the way, Tim Tebow just needs one slip by Tennessee AND Georgia to capture the East and warrant a rematch against LSU. The sophomore quarterback is pretty much the ONLY reason the Mighty Gators aren't 2-6 in the SEC as opposed to a very good 5-3. Not that South Carolina has a defense or anything. If Tennessee and Georgia both win out, the Vols take the East and the Dawgs are in line to play in the Sugar Bowl.
Can we say that the national title race is down to five teams? Yes, as I don't think West Virginia can get there and the Suckeyes are certainly out of the mix too. Missouri has the toughest road, they almost certainly need a loss by Oregon and/or LSU to reach the Top 2, on the other hand, if they can defeat Kansas and OU, plus throw in Illini's (whom they beat) win over Ohio State, they can make a case. As for the Fightin' Manginos, our key precedent is 1999: that year, the voters and the computers took an unbeaten Big 6 conference champ (VT) over a more powerful one-loss team (NEB) to play Florida State, a 46-29 victory may lead one to believe they chose wrong.
In any event, if it comes down to an LSU, Oregon, and Big 12 champ argument, I will tabulate each team's CLUTCH ranking (points for road and neutral site wins against Big 6 competition and the program formally known as Notre Dame).
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Kansas (+2)
5. Missouri (NC)
6. West Virginia (+1)
7. Georgia (+3)
8. Arizona State (NC)
9. Ohio State (-6)
10. Florida (+2)
11. Virginia Tech (+4)
12. Southern California (+1)
13. Clemson (+9)
14. Michigan (-5)
15. Texas (+1)
16. Tennessee (+4)
17. Illinois (+8)
18. Mississippi State (NR)
19. Auburn (-8)
20. Boise State (+2)
21. Cincinnati (+2)
22. Virginia (NR)
23. Penn State (NR)
24. Kentucky (NR)
25. Maryland (NR)
End of the Dream: #9 Ohio State
Utter Fraud (but still better than Hawaii): Boston College
Poise and Composure: #1 LSU, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Kansas
Embarrassing losses: #14 Michigan and #19 Auburn
Rapid Risers: #13(???) Clemson, #17 Illinois, #18 Mississippi State
Heisman ballot: Dennis Dixon, Tim Tebow, Chase Daniel, and Patrick White
Top Ten for BCS Bowls: LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan (hint, hint for next week), and Virginia Tech (projected conference champions) + USC/Arizona State, Kansas, Georgia/Florida, and, aaaaaarrrrrrrggggggghhhhhh, that team from the islands.
Not Sugar: #1 LSU v. #2 Oregon
Orange: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia
Sugar: Oklahoma v. Georgia
Fiesta: Kansas v. Hawaii
Rose: Arizona State v. Michigan
I think the Rose Bowl is inclined to take a Pac-10 team as their first choice (ORE's slot) whereas the Sugar (LSU's) would feel persuaded to take an 11-1 Oklahoma team probably rated #3 in the BCS. If the Jayhawks beat Missouri, I think they are assured of a spot, losing to OU would keep them in the Top 6 of the BCS standings. The Buckeyes, despite 1997, 2003, and 2005, cannot get in with two losses, they won't even rate in the Top 12 if that happens.
Capital One (maybe?) Bowl bound: #9 Ohio State, after all, should Illinois win out, they would have the tiebreaker for #2 in the Big 10, yes, a lot was lost yesterday.
Depressed thoughts of an OSU partisan...
Illinois played almost the perfect game yesterday in Ohio Stadium, perhaps calling on the spirits of prior Illini teams that vanquished OSU in C-Bus. Zero turnovers and one penalty do a lot of wins make, even on the road, even at the alleged #1 team in all the land. Time will only tell if this was the breakout game for Juice Williams, who finally showed his prodigious potential. I cannot recall a team in memory to rush for more than 250 yards on the banks of the O-River. Yes, an eighty-yard run (plus fumble???) may have inflated their stats a bit, but the much-celebrated linebacking corps made zero plays, forced zero mistakes, and generally looked as feeble against the run as the Bucks did in Ann Arbor four years prior: gulp. I guess the positive news for the country is that the clearly-not-Top-4-conference Big 10 will receive only one BCS team, kind of humiliating, but certainly fair. Both the Pac-10 and the SEC emphatically deserve two teams, the latter possibly three but the rules don't allow it. Coach Tressel has a LOT of work to do to get his troops ready for The Game. The stench is bad, but another win in Michigan Stadium would at least lock down the Rose Bowl, very possibly to draw the same team they last played there (ASU).
Kudos to the rest of the Top 5, particularly the Jayhawks. No, I still don't think they can beat Oklahoma, but if they do, goodness, someone is going to be very unhappy among the triumvirate, probably Oregon. Moral: don't lose a home game, particularly not to a team that nosedives the rest of the season.
I had to think twice about ranking OSU above Florida, and by the way, Tim Tebow just needs one slip by Tennessee AND Georgia to capture the East and warrant a rematch against LSU. The sophomore quarterback is pretty much the ONLY reason the Mighty Gators aren't 2-6 in the SEC as opposed to a very good 5-3. Not that South Carolina has a defense or anything. If Tennessee and Georgia both win out, the Vols take the East and the Dawgs are in line to play in the Sugar Bowl.
Can we say that the national title race is down to five teams? Yes, as I don't think West Virginia can get there and the Suckeyes are certainly out of the mix too. Missouri has the toughest road, they almost certainly need a loss by Oregon and/or LSU to reach the Top 2, on the other hand, if they can defeat Kansas and OU, plus throw in Illini's (whom they beat) win over Ohio State, they can make a case. As for the Fightin' Manginos, our key precedent is 1999: that year, the voters and the computers took an unbeaten Big 6 conference champ (VT) over a more powerful one-loss team (NEB) to play Florida State, a 46-29 victory may lead one to believe they chose wrong.
In any event, if it comes down to an LSU, Oregon, and Big 12 champ argument, I will tabulate each team's CLUTCH ranking (points for road and neutral site wins against Big 6 competition and the program formally known as Notre Dame).
Monday, November 5, 2007
Week 11 Preview: Great Games in August...
Do not always equal fine match-ups in November, with that in mind, let us proceed...
Louisville @ West Virginia: The last two years, this contest has ranked among the most entertaining and dramatic of any in college football--it may well reprise that role this Thursday night, yet, will anyone bother? Surely ESPN must frown over what this game--billed as a national championship elimination match in August--has degenerated into ever since Louisville failed to protect a late lead in Lexington. The Mountaineers have mostly done their part, however, and presumed big games by Patrick White and Steve Slaton, gentlemen who well remember the debacle last year at the Papa John, will keep Morgantown's slim title shot alive. WVA 51 LOU 23
Illinois @ Ohio State: Once upon a time, the Illini won four consecutive games at Ohio Stadium, a streak not snapped until Eddie George's Buckeye record rushing total in 1995, yet, two more Ls on the banks of the O-River followed in 1999 and 2001. Illinois has won six times in Columbus since 1986. For comparison, Michigan has needed six additional years to accumulate six wins at the 'Shoe. On the other hand, the Bucks hammered the Illini 40-2 two years ago and lead 17-0 in Champaign before running out the clock to a 17-10 win. A few weeks ago, Illini looked as compelling a Big 10 title contender as either OSU or UM, then, alas, came the Iowa game. Pardon me if I'm not terribly impressed by Juice and Mendenhall's huge days at the Metrodome. Illinois does have a good defense though and may keep this one close well into the fourth quarter. Beanie Wells, though, continues to roll. OSU 24 ILL 19
Kansas @ Oklahoma State: After yet another Michigan State imitation (a massively blown lead to Texas) last week, the Cowboys and their explosive offense welcome the finest Jayhawk team in many an autumn. As mentioned yesterday, concerns abound from the lackluster KU defensive effort against hapless Nebraska, despite the "76" on their side of the ledger. West Virginia, among others, eagerly wait for this team to flop under the burden of weighty expectations--as the WVA always does this themselves, they figure others must suffer the same fate. Look for the Pokes to mope a little too long, Coach Mangino and Co. escape Stillwater, reminiscient of the 2000 Sooners. KU 31 OSU 21
Auburn @ Georgia: The Dawgs, fresh off their uninspiring effort against Troy (my, what a non-conference schedule!) host the tough Tigers between the hedges. Georgia needs another L from Tennessee, but, thanks to Moreno, have begun to think SEC title, which would calculate to Mark Richt's third in six seasons, a pace not seen in Athens since the Dooley Era. Still, I think Auburn is a mentally-tougher team and no coach in America is better than Tommy Tuberville on the road, they'll be some head-knockin' in this one, touchdowns at a premium? AUB 17 UGA 13
Michigan @ Wisconsin: Akin to WVA-LOU, many pundits saw the Big 10 race come down to this clash in Madison. Two years ago, Bucky finally got over the Wolverine hump, yet registered their only loss of 2006 in Ann Arbor. These games always seem to go the same way: Wisky tries to ram it down UM's throat, and the blue-and-yellow helmets repel every assault, the Wolverines make one or two big plays and that is that. After humilations to Penn State and Ohio State, plus a missed opportunity at Illinois, the once-solid Badgers are reeling. Does that mean... uh, no. UM 42 WIS 20
Florida @ South Carolina: The Gators last stand to defend their conference championship and Tebow's bid to reclaim his Heisman standing. The OBC just got destroyed in Fayetteville, so he'll prove no doubt relieved to see the talent of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones nowhere on the Florida roster. Two years ago, SoCaro upset Urban Meyer in his first year, last fall, only a tremendous FG block by future NFL first-rounder (no word if he gave tOSU some of his DEN signing bonus) saved a loss at the Swamp. Look for Tebow to have a big day, as the Gators just might get a rematch with LSU after all. FLA 32 SoCaro 14
USC @ California: No, the Pac-10 title will not be won in Berkeley, absent a major upset, the Oregon Ducks will take their first crown since 2001. The Trojans, destined to go down as one of the most colossally-overrated preseason teams ever (at least FSU '93 lived up to the hype), could potentially drop their third game in the conference. For once, CAL has the best player on the field in DeSean Jackson, yet Pete Carroll (who may never receive another pro offer quite like the one at the end of last season) has bludgeoned the Bears two consecutive years, three straight wins if one includes the California domination-turned-loss in Los Angeles in 2004. The Tedfords don't quite rate with the NEBs and NDs for disappointing years, but close, and it will get worse. USC 35 CAL 27
Arkansas @ Tennessee: The Vols limped out of Fayeteville last year and if they wish to prevail in the SEC East they must avenge that loss Saturday. McFadden, with another 200 yard (or more) day, could persuade some Heisman voters that he is the best player in college football even if his team is out of the SEC race. Few teams have been as up-and-down as TEN, but the "downs" of CAL, FLA, and ALA don't augur well for the Razorback ground attack. Smiles from #5 and Urban Meyer. ARK 28 TEN 24
Louisville @ West Virginia: The last two years, this contest has ranked among the most entertaining and dramatic of any in college football--it may well reprise that role this Thursday night, yet, will anyone bother? Surely ESPN must frown over what this game--billed as a national championship elimination match in August--has degenerated into ever since Louisville failed to protect a late lead in Lexington. The Mountaineers have mostly done their part, however, and presumed big games by Patrick White and Steve Slaton, gentlemen who well remember the debacle last year at the Papa John, will keep Morgantown's slim title shot alive. WVA 51 LOU 23
Illinois @ Ohio State: Once upon a time, the Illini won four consecutive games at Ohio Stadium, a streak not snapped until Eddie George's Buckeye record rushing total in 1995, yet, two more Ls on the banks of the O-River followed in 1999 and 2001. Illinois has won six times in Columbus since 1986. For comparison, Michigan has needed six additional years to accumulate six wins at the 'Shoe. On the other hand, the Bucks hammered the Illini 40-2 two years ago and lead 17-0 in Champaign before running out the clock to a 17-10 win. A few weeks ago, Illini looked as compelling a Big 10 title contender as either OSU or UM, then, alas, came the Iowa game. Pardon me if I'm not terribly impressed by Juice and Mendenhall's huge days at the Metrodome. Illinois does have a good defense though and may keep this one close well into the fourth quarter. Beanie Wells, though, continues to roll. OSU 24 ILL 19
Kansas @ Oklahoma State: After yet another Michigan State imitation (a massively blown lead to Texas) last week, the Cowboys and their explosive offense welcome the finest Jayhawk team in many an autumn. As mentioned yesterday, concerns abound from the lackluster KU defensive effort against hapless Nebraska, despite the "76" on their side of the ledger. West Virginia, among others, eagerly wait for this team to flop under the burden of weighty expectations--as the WVA always does this themselves, they figure others must suffer the same fate. Look for the Pokes to mope a little too long, Coach Mangino and Co. escape Stillwater, reminiscient of the 2000 Sooners. KU 31 OSU 21
Auburn @ Georgia: The Dawgs, fresh off their uninspiring effort against Troy (my, what a non-conference schedule!) host the tough Tigers between the hedges. Georgia needs another L from Tennessee, but, thanks to Moreno, have begun to think SEC title, which would calculate to Mark Richt's third in six seasons, a pace not seen in Athens since the Dooley Era. Still, I think Auburn is a mentally-tougher team and no coach in America is better than Tommy Tuberville on the road, they'll be some head-knockin' in this one, touchdowns at a premium? AUB 17 UGA 13
Michigan @ Wisconsin: Akin to WVA-LOU, many pundits saw the Big 10 race come down to this clash in Madison. Two years ago, Bucky finally got over the Wolverine hump, yet registered their only loss of 2006 in Ann Arbor. These games always seem to go the same way: Wisky tries to ram it down UM's throat, and the blue-and-yellow helmets repel every assault, the Wolverines make one or two big plays and that is that. After humilations to Penn State and Ohio State, plus a missed opportunity at Illinois, the once-solid Badgers are reeling. Does that mean... uh, no. UM 42 WIS 20
Florida @ South Carolina: The Gators last stand to defend their conference championship and Tebow's bid to reclaim his Heisman standing. The OBC just got destroyed in Fayetteville, so he'll prove no doubt relieved to see the talent of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones nowhere on the Florida roster. Two years ago, SoCaro upset Urban Meyer in his first year, last fall, only a tremendous FG block by future NFL first-rounder (no word if he gave tOSU some of his DEN signing bonus) saved a loss at the Swamp. Look for Tebow to have a big day, as the Gators just might get a rematch with LSU after all. FLA 32 SoCaro 14
USC @ California: No, the Pac-10 title will not be won in Berkeley, absent a major upset, the Oregon Ducks will take their first crown since 2001. The Trojans, destined to go down as one of the most colossally-overrated preseason teams ever (at least FSU '93 lived up to the hype), could potentially drop their third game in the conference. For once, CAL has the best player on the field in DeSean Jackson, yet Pete Carroll (who may never receive another pro offer quite like the one at the end of last season) has bludgeoned the Bears two consecutive years, three straight wins if one includes the California domination-turned-loss in Los Angeles in 2004. The Tedfords don't quite rate with the NEBs and NDs for disappointing years, but close, and it will get worse. USC 35 CAL 27
Arkansas @ Tennessee: The Vols limped out of Fayeteville last year and if they wish to prevail in the SEC East they must avenge that loss Saturday. McFadden, with another 200 yard (or more) day, could persuade some Heisman voters that he is the best player in college football even if his team is out of the SEC race. Few teams have been as up-and-down as TEN, but the "downs" of CAL, FLA, and ALA don't augur well for the Razorback ground attack. Smiles from #5 and Urban Meyer. ARK 28 TEN 24
Sunday, November 4, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of November 4
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (NC)
4. Oklahoma (NC)
5. Missouri (+1)
6. Kansas (+1)
7. West Virginia (+2)
8. Arizona State (-3)
9. Michigan (+2)
10. Georgia (NC)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Florida (+3)
13. Southern California (+3)
14. Connecticut (-1)
15. Virginia Tech (+3)
16. Texas (+3)
17. Arkansas (+6)
18. Boston College (-10)
19. Alabama (-5)
20. Tennessee (4)
21. California (+1)
22. Boise State (NR)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Clemson (NR)
25. Illinois (NR)
That's the end of you: South Florida, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma State
Special Mention: Navy
Still no Hawaii...
Credit to an embattled Matt Flynn and an opportunistic (if overrated) LSU defense for keeping the Tigers national title hopes very much alive. Nick Saban nearly pulled this one out after a long punt return for a touchdown, but the Bayou Bengals roared back, convincingly, and won 41-34. Barely, just barely, LSU stays #1.
Oregon impressed, but so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't quit after an avalanche of Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon TD tosses, down 3-21, they rallied behind the splendid play of Rudy Carpenter, perhaps not 100%, and until a late fumble just after a completed deep ball (a score there would've made matters 30-35) did not go away. The better team won, as the Ducks snapped out of a two-quarter funk through hard running by All America candidate Jonathan Stewart. Of chief concern for the Ducks: the injury to their star QB. Fortunately, Oregon now has their three toughest Pac-10 tests behind them, finishing 2-1. The comparisons to LSU will go on for some time, and, yes, many people are secretly hoping a certain team falls in two weeks so they can take both to the Not Sugar.
Trailing 10-17 late in the third, it looked like the same-old same-old for Ohio State against Wisconsin--as in not enough points and another home defeat, which would have made four straight. Not this time. A riled up defense shut out the Badgers the rest of the way, and Beanie Wells and Co. (the O-line) went on a 28-0 run to ice the game. Wells is setting himself up nicely as a Heisman candidate for 2008, although, if Dixon can't play much the remainder of the season, and #28 bowls over you-know-who in two weeks, well... Todd Boeckman, as predicted here, did not play as well as last week: fortunately, he didn't need to. Still, if he plays like he did in the late first through the early fourth quarter in Ann Arbor the Bucks will lose. For the fourth time in five years, Jim Tressel's team starts 9-1 or better. Congrats, too, on breaking Michigan's Big 10 record for consecutive victories with twenty.
Speaking of UM, they're 13-1 in the last fourteen Big 10 games, as Chad Henne gutted out the performance of his career to erase a 14-24 deficit, and prove, once again, why Sparty is Sparty. Michigan State couldn't make a clutch first down and relinquished the football, alas, everyone in the building knew what would follow. As result of fewer than 130 yards and no scores, it seems the Heisman dream is over for Mike Hart. Even if H20 carries his team to a Big 10 title, it is likely not going to prove enough to take it from a quarterback. A 10-2 finish, though, would net him the prized Doak and a seat in NYC with Dixon, Tebow, and Ryan.
If Matt Ryan had a Heisman moment last week with his awesome final strike to nip Virginia Tech, his third interception definitely gave his backers something to reconsider. The BCS computers (and pollsters) had long overrated this team, which, let us remind you, struggled with the now 1-8 Irish. Ryan put up spectacular numbers, yet the average Golden Eagle defense allowed an eye-popping 450+ yards to a Florida State offense that last accomplished those numbers in a major tilt seven years ago. Yes, I had the Seminoles, and now it appeared it was only a matter of time before the new media darling crashed and burned. Can Ryan still win the Heisman? Well, it helps if Dixon can't play, but if Tebow wins the SEC title for Florida, the BC signal-caller isn't going to beat him either. We may also look back on this game as yet another national title lost for Ohio State, pending the results of their game in Michigan Stadium and bowl opponent.
The travails of Nebraska continue. While KU's 76-39 result will look like an early season hoops score, some skepticism is warranted. Sans Sam Keller, and at home, that is an awful lot of points to give up to the Huskers, and NEB only scored eight in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just a fluke game, but Missouri has a much better defense and with Chase Daniel, still a darkhorse Heisman candidate, an offense to put up forty on the Fightin' Manginos. The question now becomes, as one of only two undefeated Big Six conference teams, is whether an undefeated Kansas can creep all the way to the top two and secure a most improbable spot in the Not Sugar.
As for the Tigers, for whatever reason they ran up the score in Boulder, perhaps to send a message to the voters: we're a Top 5 team. If they can trip up unbeaten Kansas in KC then a rematch with Oklahoma and a possible national title shot awaits. It is this blogger's feeling, though, that either OU or MIZZ/KS needs a Buckeye loss to have a serious chance, even then, the pull for Oregon and LSU may prove too strong.
BCS Musings...
Ohio State, obviously, controls its own destiny. Irrespective of whatever SOS the Pac-10 and SEC champs boast, neither can ascend to #1 on their own. Despite the big points for beating previously unbeaten Arizona State, LSU will still remain ahead of Oregon in the computers, the question is whether the humans boost the Ducks in the polls from #5 to #3 or #2. If #2, I think they overtake LSU, if not, the Bayou Bengals would hold an extraordinarily tenuous margin. The wildcard is Kansas, the Jayhawks will advance to #1 in Jeff Sagarin's rankings and possibly jump from #5 to #3 in the computers, that, coupled with a predicted ascent to #6 in the polls, would give KU (6-6-3 = 5) enough to leapfrog idle West Virginia. Oklahoma does not have the computer ranking to compete for the national championship unless they somehow can secure the #2 slot in the polls. Either Oregon or LSU would jump them from #3 due to the computer ranking? Payback for the ridiculously strong OU 2003 finish in the computers that forced a rule change because it sent a team that had lost its conference title game 7-35 to the BCS Championship.
Predicted order...
1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Oregon
4) Kansas
5) Oklahoma
Heisman talk...
The plot thickens as the most interesting Heisman race in years continues to evolve. Dennis Dixon keeps my #1 vote, yet it's going to prove hard to keep him there if he plays sparingly from here on out, with coaches hoping to save him for the Rose Bowl or the Not Sugar. Matt Ryan has the numbers, yet a home loss to unranked FSU on the heels of a lucky escape in Blacksburg with no out of conference win (thanks, ND) to show for itself has to drop him back, behind Tebow, in the conversation. Great games against South Carolina, Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game would vault Tebow, a true sophomore, to the top of the list. Unfortunately for him, though, if Tennessee doesn't lose again then the Gators, despite a 59-20 win over the Vols, will not play LSU in Atlanta. Given that one SEC player has won the award since Bo Jackson, it defies logic to presume a three-loss, non-division winning team player can do so. Things would seem to set up well for Darren McFadden, but his partner-in-crime Felix Jones continues to take away the big guy's carries, scores, and spotlight. Hypothetical: 400 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and two Michigan wins. Question: is it enough for Mike Hart to claim the trophy at the last moment? Carson Palmer did do something remarkably similar in 2002. We might ask the same question of another Big 10 tailback, should Ohio State run the table.
Heisman ballot: Dixon, Tebow, Ryan, Hart, and, yes, Chris Wells
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (NC)
4. Oklahoma (NC)
5. Missouri (+1)
6. Kansas (+1)
7. West Virginia (+2)
8. Arizona State (-3)
9. Michigan (+2)
10. Georgia (NC)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Florida (+3)
13. Southern California (+3)
14. Connecticut (-1)
15. Virginia Tech (+3)
16. Texas (+3)
17. Arkansas (+6)
18. Boston College (-10)
19. Alabama (-5)
20. Tennessee (4)
21. California (+1)
22. Boise State (NR)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Clemson (NR)
25. Illinois (NR)
That's the end of you: South Florida, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma State
Special Mention: Navy
Still no Hawaii...
Credit to an embattled Matt Flynn and an opportunistic (if overrated) LSU defense for keeping the Tigers national title hopes very much alive. Nick Saban nearly pulled this one out after a long punt return for a touchdown, but the Bayou Bengals roared back, convincingly, and won 41-34. Barely, just barely, LSU stays #1.
Oregon impressed, but so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't quit after an avalanche of Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon TD tosses, down 3-21, they rallied behind the splendid play of Rudy Carpenter, perhaps not 100%, and until a late fumble just after a completed deep ball (a score there would've made matters 30-35) did not go away. The better team won, as the Ducks snapped out of a two-quarter funk through hard running by All America candidate Jonathan Stewart. Of chief concern for the Ducks: the injury to their star QB. Fortunately, Oregon now has their three toughest Pac-10 tests behind them, finishing 2-1. The comparisons to LSU will go on for some time, and, yes, many people are secretly hoping a certain team falls in two weeks so they can take both to the Not Sugar.
Trailing 10-17 late in the third, it looked like the same-old same-old for Ohio State against Wisconsin--as in not enough points and another home defeat, which would have made four straight. Not this time. A riled up defense shut out the Badgers the rest of the way, and Beanie Wells and Co. (the O-line) went on a 28-0 run to ice the game. Wells is setting himself up nicely as a Heisman candidate for 2008, although, if Dixon can't play much the remainder of the season, and #28 bowls over you-know-who in two weeks, well... Todd Boeckman, as predicted here, did not play as well as last week: fortunately, he didn't need to. Still, if he plays like he did in the late first through the early fourth quarter in Ann Arbor the Bucks will lose. For the fourth time in five years, Jim Tressel's team starts 9-1 or better. Congrats, too, on breaking Michigan's Big 10 record for consecutive victories with twenty.
Speaking of UM, they're 13-1 in the last fourteen Big 10 games, as Chad Henne gutted out the performance of his career to erase a 14-24 deficit, and prove, once again, why Sparty is Sparty. Michigan State couldn't make a clutch first down and relinquished the football, alas, everyone in the building knew what would follow. As result of fewer than 130 yards and no scores, it seems the Heisman dream is over for Mike Hart. Even if H20 carries his team to a Big 10 title, it is likely not going to prove enough to take it from a quarterback. A 10-2 finish, though, would net him the prized Doak and a seat in NYC with Dixon, Tebow, and Ryan.
If Matt Ryan had a Heisman moment last week with his awesome final strike to nip Virginia Tech, his third interception definitely gave his backers something to reconsider. The BCS computers (and pollsters) had long overrated this team, which, let us remind you, struggled with the now 1-8 Irish. Ryan put up spectacular numbers, yet the average Golden Eagle defense allowed an eye-popping 450+ yards to a Florida State offense that last accomplished those numbers in a major tilt seven years ago. Yes, I had the Seminoles, and now it appeared it was only a matter of time before the new media darling crashed and burned. Can Ryan still win the Heisman? Well, it helps if Dixon can't play, but if Tebow wins the SEC title for Florida, the BC signal-caller isn't going to beat him either. We may also look back on this game as yet another national title lost for Ohio State, pending the results of their game in Michigan Stadium and bowl opponent.
The travails of Nebraska continue. While KU's 76-39 result will look like an early season hoops score, some skepticism is warranted. Sans Sam Keller, and at home, that is an awful lot of points to give up to the Huskers, and NEB only scored eight in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just a fluke game, but Missouri has a much better defense and with Chase Daniel, still a darkhorse Heisman candidate, an offense to put up forty on the Fightin' Manginos. The question now becomes, as one of only two undefeated Big Six conference teams, is whether an undefeated Kansas can creep all the way to the top two and secure a most improbable spot in the Not Sugar.
As for the Tigers, for whatever reason they ran up the score in Boulder, perhaps to send a message to the voters: we're a Top 5 team. If they can trip up unbeaten Kansas in KC then a rematch with Oklahoma and a possible national title shot awaits. It is this blogger's feeling, though, that either OU or MIZZ/KS needs a Buckeye loss to have a serious chance, even then, the pull for Oregon and LSU may prove too strong.
BCS Musings...
Ohio State, obviously, controls its own destiny. Irrespective of whatever SOS the Pac-10 and SEC champs boast, neither can ascend to #1 on their own. Despite the big points for beating previously unbeaten Arizona State, LSU will still remain ahead of Oregon in the computers, the question is whether the humans boost the Ducks in the polls from #5 to #3 or #2. If #2, I think they overtake LSU, if not, the Bayou Bengals would hold an extraordinarily tenuous margin. The wildcard is Kansas, the Jayhawks will advance to #1 in Jeff Sagarin's rankings and possibly jump from #5 to #3 in the computers, that, coupled with a predicted ascent to #6 in the polls, would give KU (6-6-3 = 5) enough to leapfrog idle West Virginia. Oklahoma does not have the computer ranking to compete for the national championship unless they somehow can secure the #2 slot in the polls. Either Oregon or LSU would jump them from #3 due to the computer ranking? Payback for the ridiculously strong OU 2003 finish in the computers that forced a rule change because it sent a team that had lost its conference title game 7-35 to the BCS Championship.
Predicted order...
1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Oregon
4) Kansas
5) Oklahoma
Heisman talk...
The plot thickens as the most interesting Heisman race in years continues to evolve. Dennis Dixon keeps my #1 vote, yet it's going to prove hard to keep him there if he plays sparingly from here on out, with coaches hoping to save him for the Rose Bowl or the Not Sugar. Matt Ryan has the numbers, yet a home loss to unranked FSU on the heels of a lucky escape in Blacksburg with no out of conference win (thanks, ND) to show for itself has to drop him back, behind Tebow, in the conversation. Great games against South Carolina, Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game would vault Tebow, a true sophomore, to the top of the list. Unfortunately for him, though, if Tennessee doesn't lose again then the Gators, despite a 59-20 win over the Vols, will not play LSU in Atlanta. Given that one SEC player has won the award since Bo Jackson, it defies logic to presume a three-loss, non-division winning team player can do so. Things would seem to set up well for Darren McFadden, but his partner-in-crime Felix Jones continues to take away the big guy's carries, scores, and spotlight. Hypothetical: 400 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and two Michigan wins. Question: is it enough for Mike Hart to claim the trophy at the last moment? Carson Palmer did do something remarkably similar in 2002. We might ask the same question of another Big 10 tailback, should Ohio State run the table.
Heisman ballot: Dixon, Tebow, Ryan, Hart, and, yes, Chris Wells
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Week 10 Preview: Nearing the Home Stretch
Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Yes, RT2020 has been harping on this game for the entire season, irrespective of Bucky's record, no team has given Jim Tressel's Buckeyes more trouble than U-Dub. Worse, OSU has not managed to defeat Wisconsin--at home--since, wait for it, 1996. The final score then, incidentally, read 17-14, this from one of a handful of Ohio State teams to record a +300 DELTA. On the other hand, Buckeye teams generally don't smash Penn State under the lights at Beaver Stadium, and P. J. Hill, in the same mould as Ron Dayne and Anthony Davis, may or may not go. Senator Tressel has accumulated a less-than-sterling 1-3 record against the Badgers, the lone win coming in the 2002 title season at Camp Randall. Todd Boeckman will not play that well again, yet can Wisconsin score enough? PSU throttled them a few weeks ago, still, by all means take the points. Give Ryan Petroius a clutch kick to allow the Bucks to escape. OSU 20 WIS 19
Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13
Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20
Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21
Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28
Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13
Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13
Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20
Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21
Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28
Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13
Sunday, October 28, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 28
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)
Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon
End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech
Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina
The UK Category: Kentucky
A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut
Musings...
Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.
I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.
LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.
A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.
Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.
Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.
I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?
Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?
Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.
Projected BCS Standings:
1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)
Heisman ballot:
1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it
OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL
Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA
Just for fun...
FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)
2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)
Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon
End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech
Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina
The UK Category: Kentucky
A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut
Musings...
Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.
I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.
LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.
A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.
Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.
Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.
I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?
Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?
Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.
Projected BCS Standings:
1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)
Heisman ballot:
1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it
OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL
Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA
Just for fun...
FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)
2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus
Monday, October 22, 2007
Week 9 Preview: The First One Now Will...
Later be Last? Yes, I see the times a-changin for some current conference leaders this weekend - the most important collection of games thus far. More and more dough is accumulating at the center of the table. Time to see who's for real.
Boston College @ Virginia Tech: Look, I know Ohio State's schedule is less than arduous, but the computers, sans Billingsley, must've given BC credit for defeating '93 ND instead of the '07 version. What have they done??? How are they rated ahead of LSU? I hope Mr. Edwards will let me know later today, nonetheless... the Hokies have a history of flopping in big-time home night tilts in the last few years, namely to Pittsburgh and Miami. How good is Virginia Tech? Neither of these teams has impressed me, but absent a Heisman day from Matt Ryan, the Golden Eagles will return to Chesnut Hill with a blemish. VT 24 BC 14
Ohio State @ Penn State: RT2020 has gone back and forth on this one. This Nittany Lion edition is less imposing than 2005 yet better than 2003, need I remind you which contest OSU won in Happy Valley. The OSU offense, however, significantly rated better then (2005) as opposed to now, save for perhaps at tailback. PSU has some speed on the outside, but, check the records, they haven't scored twenty points on the Bucks since 2001. In other words, they don't frighten me. What does scare me is Todd Boeckman reprising his performance from the 2H of last week. If OSU doesn't turn it over, they could win easily--their defense is playing that well and Anthony Morelli has yet to justify the #14 jersey to them. Yeah, but White Out II will end poorly nonetheless, another title shot buried beneath an abundance of sacks and critical turnovers plus one PSU big-gainer. Get ready to chortle, Mr. Maisel. PSU 27 OSU 13
California @ Arizona State: I have no idea how good the Sun Devils are and neither does anyone else, of course, I'm not sure what beating the once-formidable Bears would do for their reputation anyway. Here is what I do know: DeSean Jackson is the best player on the field, and it wasn't his fault the Tedfords fell to the Bruins last week. Night games in Tempe, however, can turn into nightmares: look no further than Nebraska, circa 1996, when they still rated as a national power. Also, for all his foibles, Denny-K wins big games. ASU 34 CAL 31 OT
USC @ Oregon: My, these battles just keep on coming. Pete Carroll has owned Mike Belloti for the better part of a decade, a supposedly tough quarrel at Autzen in 2005 quickly degenerated after recess into another walk-through for the GREATEST TEAM EVER! This time, with Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, Oregon has the better offense if not the best in the nation. After all, Michigan's defense has clamped down since their 7-32 debacle, and may run the board in the Big 10. Yet, whether with Mark Sanchez or John David Booty, this is a made-to-order game for the Trojans. A win here puts them in a position to claim another conference championship at Tempe. Can they score enough points? Will Oregon make enough mistakes? Is my #2 team the genuine article? Yeah. ORE 41 USC 28
West Virginia @ Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights aren't a particularly good team (read: the MD game), but they are nasty in Piscataway. Last year, the Schianos blew a conference title in the closing seconds over a dispirited WVA team mostly going through the motions in Morgantown. Patrick White looked very good last week against competition that defeated Auburn and looks to lead the Mountaineers back to the Sugar Bowl. WVA 30 RUT 24
Kansas @ Texas A&M: Aggie Nation believed a small sign of relief with their second half dismantling of the once-powerful Nebraska program, yet a win here could guarantee yet another year for one of the oiliest men in the coaching fraternity, Denny-F, who still doesn't understand he is where he is because of LaDainian Tomlinson. In any event, the Fightin' Mangioes boast a vicious defense and just claimed a nice road win in Boulder. Yet, are they ready for the Twelfth Man in College Station? Survey says... no. TAMU 27 KS 19
South Florida @ Connecticut: After failing to show maturity last Thursday night, the Bulls can show that they're not going to allow a conference title to slip away--yet it's another tough road games, against, that's right, the #1 team in the Big East, fresh off a controversial win over the ineptitude that is the U of L post-Petrino. UCONN is a long way to travel for the disappointed once-#2s, good thing Jim Leavitt gets to take all that speed with him up north. USF 23 UCONN 20
Florida @ Georgia: All of sudden, yep, that sound you just heard is of the irrepressible Urban Meyer busily running the accounting machine on just how he can maneuever the Gators back to the Not Sugar discussion. Having Tim Tebow, my Heisman front-runner, assists that mission. Playing UGA, a team FLA has owned for more than a decade, ditto. America's top college coach has still not lost a game to the Hard Triangle (UGA, TEN, FSU) and with more fireworks from #15 the Mighty Gators might roll to fitty again. FLA 47 UGA 21
South Carolina @ Tennessee: Will the OBC recover against the coach he's tormented over the years? Phil Fulmer got some satisfaction from last year's decisive win in Columbia, yet his team is reeling after another embarrassing conference loss--again to a huge rival. Plus, it has been nine loooong years (and counting) since Rocky Top last held the SEC crown. Fear the Vols, however, as an underdog, something the Dawgs learned all too well last year. Erik Ainge, while not all-conference worthy, is still a better bet than the 'Cocks have, and no, Mr. Meyer will not like this result. TEN 26 SoCaro 23
If you're scoring at home, or as Olbermann once had it, even if you're alone, RT2020 sees the #1 team in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East all slipping up, mostly because three of them play away from home. Despite their ghastly #14 computer ranking, Oklahoma would jump right back into the national title game picture if such a scenario came to pass.
Heisman Watch: Tebow (up), Dixon (up), Jackson (up), and Ryan (down)
Projected BCS Standings (Oct 28):
1) LSU
2) Oregon
3) Arizona State
4) Oklahoma
5) Virginia Tech
And...
8) Florida
Aaaaarrrrrgggggghhhhh... their stranglehold on the money-making NCAA sports national titles may not yet have concluded. Should you perceive my ratcheting up of Gator hype and increased Tebow for Heisman cheerleading as some pitiful and ultimately in vain reverse psychology ploy, well... why the cynicism???
Boston College @ Virginia Tech: Look, I know Ohio State's schedule is less than arduous, but the computers, sans Billingsley, must've given BC credit for defeating '93 ND instead of the '07 version. What have they done??? How are they rated ahead of LSU? I hope Mr. Edwards will let me know later today, nonetheless... the Hokies have a history of flopping in big-time home night tilts in the last few years, namely to Pittsburgh and Miami. How good is Virginia Tech? Neither of these teams has impressed me, but absent a Heisman day from Matt Ryan, the Golden Eagles will return to Chesnut Hill with a blemish. VT 24 BC 14
Ohio State @ Penn State: RT2020 has gone back and forth on this one. This Nittany Lion edition is less imposing than 2005 yet better than 2003, need I remind you which contest OSU won in Happy Valley. The OSU offense, however, significantly rated better then (2005) as opposed to now, save for perhaps at tailback. PSU has some speed on the outside, but, check the records, they haven't scored twenty points on the Bucks since 2001. In other words, they don't frighten me. What does scare me is Todd Boeckman reprising his performance from the 2H of last week. If OSU doesn't turn it over, they could win easily--their defense is playing that well and Anthony Morelli has yet to justify the #14 jersey to them. Yeah, but White Out II will end poorly nonetheless, another title shot buried beneath an abundance of sacks and critical turnovers plus one PSU big-gainer. Get ready to chortle, Mr. Maisel. PSU 27 OSU 13
California @ Arizona State: I have no idea how good the Sun Devils are and neither does anyone else, of course, I'm not sure what beating the once-formidable Bears would do for their reputation anyway. Here is what I do know: DeSean Jackson is the best player on the field, and it wasn't his fault the Tedfords fell to the Bruins last week. Night games in Tempe, however, can turn into nightmares: look no further than Nebraska, circa 1996, when they still rated as a national power. Also, for all his foibles, Denny-K wins big games. ASU 34 CAL 31 OT
USC @ Oregon: My, these battles just keep on coming. Pete Carroll has owned Mike Belloti for the better part of a decade, a supposedly tough quarrel at Autzen in 2005 quickly degenerated after recess into another walk-through for the GREATEST TEAM EVER! This time, with Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, Oregon has the better offense if not the best in the nation. After all, Michigan's defense has clamped down since their 7-32 debacle, and may run the board in the Big 10. Yet, whether with Mark Sanchez or John David Booty, this is a made-to-order game for the Trojans. A win here puts them in a position to claim another conference championship at Tempe. Can they score enough points? Will Oregon make enough mistakes? Is my #2 team the genuine article? Yeah. ORE 41 USC 28
West Virginia @ Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights aren't a particularly good team (read: the MD game), but they are nasty in Piscataway. Last year, the Schianos blew a conference title in the closing seconds over a dispirited WVA team mostly going through the motions in Morgantown. Patrick White looked very good last week against competition that defeated Auburn and looks to lead the Mountaineers back to the Sugar Bowl. WVA 30 RUT 24
Kansas @ Texas A&M: Aggie Nation believed a small sign of relief with their second half dismantling of the once-powerful Nebraska program, yet a win here could guarantee yet another year for one of the oiliest men in the coaching fraternity, Denny-F, who still doesn't understand he is where he is because of LaDainian Tomlinson. In any event, the Fightin' Mangioes boast a vicious defense and just claimed a nice road win in Boulder. Yet, are they ready for the Twelfth Man in College Station? Survey says... no. TAMU 27 KS 19
South Florida @ Connecticut: After failing to show maturity last Thursday night, the Bulls can show that they're not going to allow a conference title to slip away--yet it's another tough road games, against, that's right, the #1 team in the Big East, fresh off a controversial win over the ineptitude that is the U of L post-Petrino. UCONN is a long way to travel for the disappointed once-#2s, good thing Jim Leavitt gets to take all that speed with him up north. USF 23 UCONN 20
Florida @ Georgia: All of sudden, yep, that sound you just heard is of the irrepressible Urban Meyer busily running the accounting machine on just how he can maneuever the Gators back to the Not Sugar discussion. Having Tim Tebow, my Heisman front-runner, assists that mission. Playing UGA, a team FLA has owned for more than a decade, ditto. America's top college coach has still not lost a game to the Hard Triangle (UGA, TEN, FSU) and with more fireworks from #15 the Mighty Gators might roll to fitty again. FLA 47 UGA 21
South Carolina @ Tennessee: Will the OBC recover against the coach he's tormented over the years? Phil Fulmer got some satisfaction from last year's decisive win in Columbia, yet his team is reeling after another embarrassing conference loss--again to a huge rival. Plus, it has been nine loooong years (and counting) since Rocky Top last held the SEC crown. Fear the Vols, however, as an underdog, something the Dawgs learned all too well last year. Erik Ainge, while not all-conference worthy, is still a better bet than the 'Cocks have, and no, Mr. Meyer will not like this result. TEN 26 SoCaro 23
If you're scoring at home, or as Olbermann once had it, even if you're alone, RT2020 sees the #1 team in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East all slipping up, mostly because three of them play away from home. Despite their ghastly #14 computer ranking, Oklahoma would jump right back into the national title game picture if such a scenario came to pass.
Heisman Watch: Tebow (up), Dixon (up), Jackson (up), and Ryan (down)
Projected BCS Standings (Oct 28):
1) LSU
2) Oregon
3) Arizona State
4) Oklahoma
5) Virginia Tech
And...
8) Florida
Aaaaarrrrrgggggghhhhh... their stranglehold on the money-making NCAA sports national titles may not yet have concluded. Should you perceive my ratcheting up of Gator hype and increased Tebow for Heisman cheerleading as some pitiful and ultimately in vain reverse psychology ploy, well... why the cynicism???
Sunday, October 21, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 21
1. Louisiana State (+1)
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)
Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee
Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California
Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State
Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas
Brief commentary...
Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.
That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.
A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.
The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.
As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.
USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.
The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.
Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)
Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee
Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California
Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State
Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas
Brief commentary...
Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.
That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.
A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.
The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.
As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.
USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.
The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.
Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart
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