Sunday, September 30, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of September 30

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. California (+2)
4. South Florida (+13)
5. Ohio State (+3)
6. KENTUCKY!!! (+5)
7. Wisconsin (+7)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. South Carolina (+6)
10. Georgia (+3)
11. Oregon (+5)
12. West Virginia (-6)
13. Oklahoma (-10)
14. Florida (-10)
15. Florida State (NR)
16. Purdue (+7)
17. Virginia Tech (+1)
18. Missouri (+1)
19. Arizona State (NR)
20. Cincinnati (NR)
21. Michigan (-1)
22. Michigan State (+3)
23. Kansas State (NR)
24. Auburn (NR)
25. Rutgers (-18!)

Dismissed: #9 Texas, #12 Clemson, #21 Penn State, and #22 Alabama

National Title Pretenders: #3 Oklahoma, #4 Florida, and #6 West Virginia

Legit: #3 California and #5 South Florida

Wow: NR Kansas State and NR Auburn

Honorable Mention: Colorado

Further comment...

Well, I've never seen a September Saturday quite like yesterday. The BCS title game picture took on a much sharper focus in the form of FIVE Top 10 teams falling to defeat, incredibly, two of them on home soil. While it is true the Florida Gators retain a slim chance of reentering the Not Sugar scenarios with a win over LSU next week, for the rest, it is over.

Oklahoma's conference had let it down, until the Sooners ensured that they would have no case, legitimate or otherwise, to make in mid-December.

Texas embarrassed itself, period, not as humiliating as Notre Dame's twenty-six point defeat to Michigan in South Bend last autumn, but close.

Presented with a golden opportunity, Rutgers could not get past a less-than-imposing ACC team--at home in New Jersey.

The vanishing acts of OU and FLA don't leave me much choice: all praise to USC for winning another night road game. I now believe the drop-off from #2 to #3 and beyond the largest in many a year. A one-loss Trojan campaign, clipped either in Eugene or Berkeley (unless the Bears go undefeated), deserves a BCS title game berth, excepting a decisive loss.

A reasonable Top 10 now includes California, South Florida, Ohio State, Boston College, and Kentucky, and some of those teams are needed to fill out the Top 5.

DeSean Jackson took a giant step towards competing for the Heisman Trophy, whereas Tim Tebow went in completely the opposite direction. Sam Bradford? Steve Slaton? Well, perhaps the less said the better.

LSU staggered to a 10-9 lead into halftime as a forty-point favorite against Tulane, yet somehow emerged as the most polished and focused team of the afternoon. The Gators, backed into a corner, arrive in Baton Rouge next week.

A few last points about the remarkable nature of this poll:

1) Florida State, ridiculed in an opening loss to Clemson, now stands ONE spot behind archrival Florida.

2) Oregon and Michigan State each received a higher ranking based on... close losses, and the former lost AT HOME!!

3) #7 Rutgers lost at home to an unranked team by double digits, and, owing to the rash of upsets, remained, barely, in the Top 25.

4) #5 Ohio State travels to West Lafayette to play #16 Purdue next Saturday... in the biggest game of the day involving two undefeated teams.

5) The University of Kentucky football program is one win away from Top 4 status... and perhaps two or three wins away from, well, we dare not say.

6) To borrow a line from Gregg Easterbrook, I don't mean to alarm you, but Oklahoma State and Texas A&M will play next weekend... for first place in the Big 12 South.

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Goodbye to All That

Hey y'all, holler at the farmer, 'cause the chicken laid another egg.

At the outset, congratulations to the supremely opportunistic Bulls, without question, they will warrant Top 10 status in the next round of polls. Florida kids, it goes without saying, have no peer for speed and quickness--and there are a whole lot of youngsters in the Sunshine State that can play football. Are they a national title contender? Well, we could say that a hypothetical OSU/WIS v. RUT/USF poll battle would prove quite interesting, especially if also matched against a one-loss USC team for the right to play the SEC champion (the winner of the nation's best conference is always guaranteed a title shot, didn't you know that?). In order...

1) A one-loss USC team
2) An undefeated Rutgers or South Florida team
3) An undefeated Wisconsin or Ohio State team
4) An undefeated Oklahoma team, unless Texas wins out

Of course, an LSU/FLA split would create quite a bit of chaos, even if USC--the greatest team that we will ever see until 2008--runs the table. Nonetheless, I can tell you, with absolute certainty, which team is no longer part of the title picture.

Jerry Glanville and Jack Pardee's Houston Oilers... err... Rich Rodriguez's West Virginia Mountaineers. Look, before suitably blasting WVA for emulating Virginia Tech post-#7, a few words on my pick. It had all the possibility of becoming true, had Pat White not dinged up his knee and had alleged All-America Steve Slaton had better hands. Aside from a pick-six to open the proceedings and a Louisville-esque busted coverage on a long TD pass, the incompetent execution at the USF 2 summed up the night rather well. That botched snap likely cost the Mountaineers a TD and only a 7-14 deficit.

On the highlights, it sort of looked like Greg Montgomery muffing a snap on a field goal in a playoff game long ago... Last year, a lack of discipline cost West Virginia on the road at Louisville followed by a lack of focus against these very same Bulls when a BCS berth seemed theirs for the taking (because, you know, beating an SEC champ in the Sugar Bowl--barely--is worth ten years of goodwill, not quite ND-like, but almost). White and Slaton starred as freshmen on a Top 5 finisher in 2005... now it's 2007, and we're still waiting for something resembling an encore.

Coach Rodriguez has a good program, yet the aforementioned stars are not the usual crop received by Morgantown: they've cashed in to some degree, but more has been expected these last two years. If Slaton stays, they'll have one more chance, if not, well, it may not get this good for awhile.

Upon reflection of last night's WVA debacle, my thoughts wandered back to one of the most talented teams in NFL history--the late 1980s/early 1990s Houston Oilers. A cool bunch with charismatic players and speed to burn, so great... they never played in an AFC Championship Game. We need not remind you their entire "reign" witnessed the NFC hold the Lombardi Trophy every time. To borrow a line from the legendary SNL performer, it was always something, from gagging a thirty-two point lead in Buffalo to playing the foil for yet another Joe Montana moment, as their #2 seed and visions of finally reaching the Super Bowl, dissipated in the cavernous Astrodome artificial air. Soon, the brass chose a "promising" young QB over a future Hall of Famer, and the ride ended, literally, with the relocation to Tennessee.

Now, Rich Rodriguez is a better coach than either Houston gent, yet the results, troublingly, seem the same: they always find the banana peel. Remarkably, this time it wasn't the defense, but injuries and an ineffective offense. Oh, like a certain Run-and-Shoot crew from days gone by, they can return to piling up the points on questionable competition, and perhaps even win in New Jersey later this year. We may even say it goes back to old ruler of Morgantown, and the 1988 and 1993 undefeated Mountaineer squads pummelled in two major bowl games--or the potential squandered in the form of a seventeen point opening loss to the (albeit #1) Buckeyes in 1998. Or allowing a certain Virginia Tech freshman quarterback to drive his team to a game-winning field goal with seconds to play on the Blue Ridge in 1999.

The Bulls are a nice story and have a leg up in the conference race, yet they're not a serious championship contender (yet), West Virginia was supposed to be one, even as their sole accomplishment remains holding off one of the worst SEC champions (Georgia, 2005) in many seasons.

Yet, perhaps it is best for WVA to look on the bright side: at least they didn't blow a double-digit lead against a mid-level opponent in a conference title game mere minutes from a once-fathomable destination: the Fiesta Bowl and the chance to play for all the marbles. That 1998 Kansas State edition, piloted by the Heisman runner-up, a terrific defense, and superb special teams, owns the dubious distinction of losing the most.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Week 5 Preview: Saddle Up, WVA

West Virginia @ South Florida: Two of the three best teams in the Big East will begin to shake out the conference Thursday night. The Bulls are a very good home team, and the Mountaineers are notorious for losing focus away from the Blue Ridge State. SF got Auburn back when that mattered, so we don't know much about either team. I like Steve Slaton and Pat White to do the job, however, perhaps in thrilling fashion. WVA 37 SF 30

California @ Oregon: Winner can begin to shadow USC and prepare for a conference title-deciding quarrel later in the season. For CAL's DeSean Jackson and ORE's Dennis Dixon this is nothing less than a statement game, either can boost their Heisman chances with a memorable performance. The Bears are a better team, yet the game is at Autzen. Worse, Dixon is better than Nate Longshore. The Ducks have had defensive issues, but I think they can pull it out. ORE 41 CAL 38

Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Bucky is still undefeated, yet almost no one is impressed with the Badgers lately. Meanwhile, new coach Mark Dantonio has guided Sparty to a perfect record after the turmoil of the John L. Smith era. Even so, are the upstarts prepared to win a road game outside of South Bend? Well, no. WIS 24 MSU 13, as U-Dub begins to earn back some props.

Auburn @ Florida: No team in the SEC over the last fifteen years has given the Gators as many fits as Auburn. Last year, the Tigers ended FLA's hopes for an undefeated season on the Plains, this time, well, payback seems the order of the day. Urban Meyer is also still a little steamed at the lackluster effort in Oxford last week, and he knows where the champs must trek in early October. FLA 31 AUB 21

Monday, September 24, 2007

At the Quarter Pole: Heisman Ballot

The Heisman Trophy remains the one of the most prestigious awards in all of sport, as only the Sullivan Award proves a rival in the field of amateur competition. Whilst frequently just another way to recognize the best quarterback or running back on the best team, the Heisman nonetheless generates debate, which is good for college football. Last year at this time, Ohio State's Troy Smith had led the Buckeyes to a 3-0 record--most persuasively a 24-7 win over then-#2 Texas--and in so doing displaced frontrunner Brady Quinn, whose Irish fell to Michigan in rather decisive fashion. The battlelines for this season have yet to be drawn.

Darren McFadden, the best player in college football, actually passed Quinn to finish second in the 2006 race, in addition, he is a running back, which would seem to augur well for his chances. Unfortunately, D-Mac is plagued by an already-two loss team that doesn't rate among the nation's elite programs. Worse, his numbers don't appear on course for a 2,000 yard 25 TD campaign now clearly necessary to wrest the award away from a competitor likely to contend for the national championship. Don't forget, Arkansas remained mathematically alive for the Not-Fiesta well into November, affording #5 an opportunity to achieve national recognition--especially after the Hogs hammered Auburn on the Plains. So, who can win it?

Tim Tebow, QB, FLA: His team is top-five, and he is already a known commodity, plus his combination rush/pass skills always go over well with the committee. Issues? For one, LSU. The tenacious Bayou Bengal defense could make mincemeat of his hopes, he may have two shots though, if Florida can win in Columbia and beat the Dawgs. A Heisman is likely in his future, though I'm thinking more 2008.

Mike Hart, RB, MICH: RT2020's preaseason pick, but the second loss to Oregon is a drag on the effort. Still, huge days at Wisconsin and, well, another game to close the season will give him a chance. Yet, like McFadden, Michigan is no longer a title contender, which means 2,000 yards is closet to a prerequisite for joining Woodson, Howard, and Harmon. He also has no chance when measured against the Oregon QB.

DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL: Two TDs in an upset of USC will put him in the race, otherwise, Desmond's cheerleading aside, I just don't see it. His school is not powerful enough, even if they are top-five material this autumn. I almost think CAL has to go undefeated, and even then, likely not enough.

Andre' Woodson, QB, UK: HOMER! HOMER! Well, a win next week against the OBC on the Coast and his name will appear on every ballot. Face facts: Kentucky last started 4-0 in their mythical 1950 title season of Bryant and Parilli! Even a home split against LSU and Florida, provided he plays well, will not knock him from the race. A ten-win season with that, ahem, record still intact would provide a strong resume. He's on course for a trip to NYC.

John David Booty, QB, USC: Four Heismans in seven seasons sounds almost impossible, yet this Trojan signal-caller, in big games @ CAL and ORE, will once again receive the opportunity to become the eighth USC star to hoist the hardware. Unlike any other candidate save Woodson, his destiny is entirely in his hands. A 12-0 USC mark will almost guarantee him at least second place, dispatched only by a 2,000 tailback, or a player from the SEC (or both).

Colt Brennan, QB, HI: His model is Andre Ware, the 1989 recipient from Houston that put up such gaudy numbers it made Tony Rice look pedestrian. I think he will make some Pro Bowls at the next level, yet I cannot look favorably on giving the award to him due to strength of schedule. It simply is not there. Worse, he would not have a potential BCS win (Hawaii is likely to receive a bid if undefeated) to buttress his argument. Great QB, but no.

Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE: Dixon v. Booty, Autzen, only one will exit with intact Heisman hopes. Actually, Dixon needs a UM resurgence (all the way to the Top 10?) more than an undefeated season. Oregon has posted a Heisman finalist as recently as 2001 and the swoosh money would ensure a competitive campaign if the Ducks don't falter to a Pac-10 weakling. He beats USC, though, and Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl, well, I think it's his to lose in the last few weeks of the season.

Pat White/Steve Slaton, QB/RB, WVA: I feel for these guys, but their hopes had rested on an undefeated Louisville showing up in Morgantown. Oops. Rutgers and South Florida are still there, yet these Mountaineers truly needed that high-profile game. WVA's typical late-season swoon, if replicated in 2007, would completely alienate their Heisman backers. The same written today was true of 2006: if undefeated, they have a chance--and a way in Pisacataway is crucial.

Yes, we could look at OU's Bradford, however, until proven otherwise freshmen do not win the Heisman Trophy, and certainly not before a sophomore. The "Big" 12 also does not provide enough statement games for Oklahoma. If the Sooners thrash Texas and finish 13-0, well, Bradford is headed to the ceremony... in a clapping role. Like Tebow, though, we may see more of him soon.

The ballot:

1. Andre' Woodson
2. Mike Hart
3. Tim Tebow
4. Darren McFadden
5. Dennis Dixon

Sunday, September 23, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of September 23

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Florida (-1)
5. California (+1)
6. West Virginia (-1)
7. Rutgers (+1)
8. Ohio State (+4)
9. Texas (NC)
10. Boston College (+4)
11. KENTUCKY!!! (+6)
12. Clemson (+4)
13. Georgia (+2)
14. Wisconsin (-4)
15. South Carolina (-4)
16. Oregon (+2)
17. South Florida (NR)
18. Virginia Tech (+3)
19. Missouri (NR)
20. Michigan (NR)
21. Penn State (-14)
22. Alabama (-9)
23. Purdue (NC)
24. Hawaii (NC)
25. Michigan State (NR)

Unceremoniously bounced: #19 (WVA is not happy) Louisville, #20 (OU is not happy) Texas A&M, #22 (Same as previous) Nebraska, and #25 (Nearing the end of D-Mac in big games) Arkansas

Valiant in defeat: #7 Penn State, #11 South Carolina, and #13 Alabama

On-field promotions: South Florida, Missouri, and MICHIGAN!

The Wisconsin Category (Unimpressive in victory): #3 Florida, #10 Wisconsin, and #22 Nebraska

Here comes... : California, Ohio State, Boston College, Clemson, and KENTUCKY!!!

Musings...

Most assuredly, the Bayou Bengals will lose #1 votes for defeating the Ole Ball Coach by "only" twelve points. Sigh. Make no mistake: the 'Cocks are Top-15 material... for another week at least :)

OMG!!! USC!!! OMG!!! USC!!! And you thought John David Booty's Heisman campaign had faded from memory. Well, two games now separate the Men of Troy from N'Orleans and an LSU beatdown, if Carroll's crew rips Oregon at Autzen and Cal in Berkeley, yes, even RT2020 will (redacted) Southern Cal nearly as much as the rest of punditdom.

Speaking of Cal, nice job in revenging an awful loss from last year, you know, the one that cost the Bears an outright Pac-10 championship. Yet to borrow a line from the song, it doesn't matter, no. It's USC, that and not pulling another Tedford special in a more nondescript game.

King Meyer, conqueror of Ohio State, didn't quite look like the best coach in America yesterday. Yes, it was on the road, yes it came after a dismantling of the artists formally known as Tennessee football, yes, Tebow is awesome. As the Tommy Lee Jones character once said, "I don't care." Champs, you ain't scaring the Tigers with this performance.

As for the Buckeyes, wait, was that #10 back on the field? Fitty again against the Wildcats, albeit a school dropped by D-OOOOOO-K? Yeah, not a lot learned here, but the D again showed some teeth. If they can hold Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan under 100 yards rushing, it's on to Pasadena.

And finally, YOOOOOOO-KAAAAAYYYYYY. First the bad news, 338 yards allowed on the ground (ugh) and twenty-two times the announcers piped, "Move the chains," (visions of a smiling Tim Tebow and Matt Flynn, aaargh!!!) with the white shirts on the field, even if the best tailback in the nation toted the rock that night. On the other hand, Andre' Woodson is rapidly becoming a very baaaad man. Do I have the homerism to put him #1 on my utterly meaningless unofficial Heisman ballot???

Stay tuned.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Week 4 Preview: 'Cocks at the Rouge

Texas A&M @ Miami: Mercurial coach Denny Franchione, still best known for ditching Alabama after one campaign, has perhaps his finest team yet in College Station. Building off a tenure-guaranteeing win at Austin last autumn, the Aggies may challenge for a Big 12 South division championship. Well, if so, they need to show some maturity in winning against a good but not elite Miami team, last seen cowering before the Sooners. The Big 12 has taken some hits, and it's due for another one. I like the 'Canes in the upset, MIA 23 TAMU 21

South Carolina @ LSU: Like defense? Glenn Dorsey's crew has dominated three decent teams, but points from their prolific offense may prove difficult to come by against a fast, tough Gamecock D. On the other hand, while this is certainly the Bayou Bengals' roughest test until D-Day on the Sixth, and despite a clear coaching advantage, the Tigers are too good to slip up here, but it's tougher than anticipated, LSU 17 SoCaro 6

Penn State @ Michigan: Do you recollect the last time the Nittany Lions won against the Maize and Blue, how about 1996? Michigan has dominated and won the close ones, and the first step to determining the 2008 Rose Bowl loser is this contest at the Big House. I still love H20, and JoePa's defense has not impressed lately. PSU is good, yet not on the level of the 1994 team that won 31-24 in Ann Arbor, plus I'll take a freshman talent over the inconsistent Anthony Morrelli. MICH 31 PSU 14

Georgia @ Alabama: Richt's Dawgs invade Tuscaloosa to attempt to avoid a second conference loss, albeit out of division. The Tide have rolled thus far, but the escape over the Razorbacks last week raised some questions. I think UGA has the better team, yet the confines favor Nick Saban's team. Expect a nasty, low-scoring battle that may come down to a kick, edge, 'Bama. ALA 18 UGA 16

KENTUCKY @ Arkansas: Ahem, must maintain impartiality... Well, one team runs the ball as well as any in the country, and the other, despite having a great quarterback (who, by the way, if he played for ARK would have them undefeated and in the title chase), cannot stop the run at all. On the other hand, UK has had more success on the road here than anywhere else (outside of Mississippi) in conference. I picked UK over ARK in the preseason, and despite a likely 300 combined total yards from Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, the 'Cats can outscore this team. Andre' Woodson's legend continues to grow. UK 45 ARK 38

All in all, not a great slate of games, yet have no fear, D-Day is coming. So, too, is a Heisman update after the results of this coming Saturday.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of September 16

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. Florida (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. West Virginia (+1)
6. California (+6)
7. Penn State (+3)
8. Rutgers (+3)
9. Texas (-5)
10. Wisconsin (-2)
11. South Carolina (+2)
12. Ohio State (+6)
13. Alabama (+9)
14. Boston College (NR)
15. Georgia (+2)
16. Clemson (+7)
17. KENTUCKY! (NR)
18. Oregon (+2)
19. Louisville (-11)
20. Texas A&M (+4)
21. Virginia Tech (NR)
22. Nebraska (-7)
23. Purdue (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Arkansas (-6)


Banished: #7 (ugh) UCLA, #14 (huh?) Georgia Tech, #16 (yeah, I bit) Washington, #19 (you know what you have to do) South Florida, #25 (hey, the 1995 team got roasted at the Swamp too!) Tennessee

Took We a Tumble: #9 Louisville (#20 now), #15 Nebraska (#23 now), #19 Arkansas (#25 now)

Shaky, shaky: #5 Texas (now #9), #8 Wisconsin (now #10)

Validation: #2 USC (NC), #18 Ohio State! (+6)

Starting to Believe: Rutgers, California, South Carolina

I guessed 2006, I was too kind: Notre Dame, reprising their 2003 effort at UM

Well, I haven't felt so good about being so wrong in some time! Starting at the top, the LSU Destroyers continued on their rampage to the national championship game--that's now seven points allowed in three games...

USC nicely stepped up and won the first of five tough roadies this season, although, admittedly, the bout at Seattle no longer looks as challenging. Careful, however, because Oregon and California, both of which Pete Carroll's Dynasty* faces away from the Coliseum, can put up the points too.

Urban Meyer, top coach in America? Only one to defeat Ohio State in twenty-three games, no losses to UF's hard triangle, just asking... Tennessee's "defense" has embarrassed their late-1990s, sans NEB games, units. Where have you gone, Al Wilson, Raynoch Thompson, and D'wayne Goodrich, Rocky Top turns its lonely eyes to you...

Wisconsin, even though I'm sure they'll top OSU and possibly win the Big 10, continues to unimpress, P. J. Hill not withstanding. At the moment, Penn State is the best team in the Big 10, though neither team has gone on the road to beat a worthy adversary... great job, Bucks!

Nick Saban cannot win a national championship in his FIRST year, can he? Too much youth, too many flaws, yet one SEC West foe conquered, two more to go, and one of them just lost to Mississippi State, which admittedly makes South Florida's win on the Plains look more pedestrian than last week.

Oh yes, there was a little quarrel at the Commonwealth last evening... YES!!!!!!!!!!!! Finally, against an opponent that had laughed and snorted at UK for years, Louisville gets its comeuppance, albeit in yet another game that has me seeing 50s and 60s for LSU and Florida. C'mon D, can you hold either to under 30??? Yes, I'll say it, the best win of Rich Brooks's career (you mean better than the NFL days?). Tennessee looks more and more beatable, whilst outscoring Georgia now seems plausible, even if between the hedges.

UK!!!!!!!!!!! UK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WELCOME TO THE AP POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bonus BCS Preview:

OCT 6: Gators at the Tigers, D-Day in the SEC.