Sunday, November 18, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 18

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Missouri (+3)
3. Ohio State (+6)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Georgia (+2)
6. Kansas (-2)
7. Arizona State (+1)
8. Florida (+2)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Southern California (+2)
11. Texas (+4)
12. Illinois (+5)
13. Auburn (+6)
14. Tennessee (+2)
15. Oklahoma (-12)
16. Virginia (+7)
17. Boise State (+3)
18. Oregon (-16)
19. Connecticut (NR)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. Michigan (-7)
22. Boston College (NR)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Arkansas (NR)
25. Florida State (NR)

When your QB goes down... #2 Oregon and #3 Oklahoma

Tip of my hat: #22 Boston College and #23 Hawaii(!!!) for impressive road wins

After Illinois at #12, I have no real idea, winner of BSU/HAW to get validation

Musings...

LSU's offense remains questionable, but if they don't have to play Georgia they should cruise past Arkansas and Tennessee to host the Not Sugar, which, of course, they will win. SEC teams, don't you know, need not even play in the final game to be ranked #1...

My sympathies to the Oregon faithful, one play from 14-0 with a Heisman nearly in the grasp, a tipped pass in the endzone began a stretch that ultimately led to Dennis Dixon's exit from this season and as likely as not Oregon's shot at even making the Rose Bowl. If USC can defeat Arizona State and Oregon wins out, they will still play (likely) Ohio State, but without their greatest benefactor, can they win? I seem them struggling to beat UCLA.

Kansas hater? They have yet to beat a single team in the AP Poll, but they will get a stiff test next week in Kansas City. Missouri's loss to Oklahoma took yet another step down the ladder with the Sooners debacle in Lubbock last night, would beating a two-loss OU team for the Big 12 title to finish 12-1 really seem all that impressive? The one thing they have going for them is they beat Illinois, which Ohio State failed to do. If they win it, they will go. If Kansas wins out, they will go. Nonetheless, a big piece of OSU's puzzle to reach the title game panned out with the Red Raiders win.

West Virginia may claim to have a case too, if they beat Connecticut and Pittsburgh to claim the outright Big East title, only a loss to South Florida has blemished their season. On the other hand, they don't have a signature victory, with their biggest win of the year coming at Piscataway. Will the Bucks jump them in the latest BCS poll? Hmmm...

As for Ohio State, here are some years for you: NEVER, 1981, 1963, NEVER. Answers? The last time the Bucks won both at State College and Ann Arbor in the same season; the last time OSU won two straight games in Michigan Stadium; the last time the Scarelet and Gray won FOUR straight in the series (unbeaten from 1972-75, but with a tie); the last time OSU won SIX out of SEVEN in the series. If you consider that Michigan ended 1997 with an 8-1-1 mark in the last ten meetings, they've gone only 3-7 since, two of those wins in 1999 and 2000. A vicious OSU defense plus the elements limited Michigan to a season-low in total yardage and the fourth-lowest point total in the history of the game.

Chris Wells is a bona fide Heisman candidate for next season and may have back-doored his way into the Top 5 for this season. Ohio State didn't attempt a pass in the second half, and absent a few plays, Beanie rumbled and rumbled, scoring twice, including a 62-yard back-breaker that will be seen on many August Heisman campaign videos next season. If Todd Boeckman can play better next year and a few juniors stick around, this is your preseason #2 team, behind...

The Gators, sigh. I've resigned myself to the fate of Tim Tebow winning the Heisman Trophy despite Florida's lack of a division title. Without him, quite simply, Florida would be struggling for bowl eligibility. The schedule was nasty this season, an older defense and an even more experienced #15 will bode very well for Urban Meyer next season, even more so if LSU is dealing with an expected coaching change.

Bottom line: OSU didn't get everything they needed this week, but a nice eleven-point win over Michigan plus the end of Oregon and (critically) Oklahoma might just make it a race to the finish between West Virginia (which can impress or extinguish themselves) and Tressel-led Bucks. Of all the Big 12 teams to lose today, OU was the one they needed, simply because OU is more likely, with its better athletes to beat the Big 12 North champion, especially if it's Kansas. Missouri played them well, in Norman, despite a so-so game from Heisman contender Chase Daniel.

Preview for next week unavailable due to travel, key games....

Southern California @ Arizona State: This is a game made for USC and their experience. It's very hard to win here, especially at night, but give the Trojans the edge and the inside track to Pasadena. USC 31 ASU 24

Boise State @ Hawaii: If Colt Brennan can't play, the Rainbow Warriors have no chance. I think he goes, but the reigning Fiesta Bowl champions can smell another visit, wouldn't OU be thrilled to see them again? BSU 29 HAW 23

Connecticut @ West Virginia: For the Big East title, the mystery-fluke team versus the one that always gets unnerved in these situations. A decisive win here either jumps the Bucks or gives them some breathing room. White and Slaton roll, a loss here would be inexcusable. WVA 45 CT 13

IRON BOWL: The South's greatest rivalry has lost some of its luster, namely, ALA cannot beat AUB. Nick Saban was brought here to win this game above all others, but the Tide have sleepwalked through two straight games and lost three straight overall. That can all go away with a tough win on the Plains. No, AUB is just a better team. AUB 19 ALA 12

Arkansas @ Louisiana State: Strange as it sounds, Darren McFadden can still win the Heisman Trophy, with a 150-yard and two score game against a defense recently punctured by.... Mississippi??? Ugh. ARK running game versus the Tiger defensive line, strength versus strength. Not at the Rouge, though. LSU 30 ARK 17

GAME OF THE WEEK...

Missouri @ Kansas: Two enter, one will leave with the division crown, which for the first time since 2001 actually means something, perhaps more so with OU reeling. Two high-scoring offenses with highly-rated quarterbacks. It is safe to say these two schools will never play a bigger game than this one. I just the Tigers are a little better than the Jayhawks, who foolishly scheduled this game away from Lawrence. The last undefeated Big Six conference school goes down, and hard. Chase Daniel books a ticket to New York City. MIZZ 34 KS 20

Heisman ballot (11/18): Tebow, Daniel, Dixon, Wells, and White

Projected BCS Standings (11/18):

1) LSU
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) West Virginia
5) Ohio State*

*Mainly because OU's computer ranking of #7 fell below OSU's own #6 last week, this should help the Mountaineers hold off a Buckeye surge in the polls. I expect OSU to be ranked #5 and WVA #4, it should prove very, very close though.

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