The Word From Ann Arbor

Cliche, yes, but Michigan is at a crossroads. At some point the football program in association with the university must decide whether their team will continue down the same path since 1969 or jettison an aging, yet still very successful (at least in conference play) system led by Bo Schembechler. Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr, both former assistants, served as the face of the program from 1990-2007. During this time, Michigan dominated the Big 10 and only a six losses in seven stretch to Ohio State precluded additional BCS games (2001 and 2007) and a national title shot (2006). After 1996, Penn State ceased to concern Michigan, ditto Michigan State after Clockgate in 2001. Even an up-and-coming Illini team failed to hold their home turf against the Wolverines, and blew a Big 10 title share in the process.

Coach Carr's departure is drawing comparisons to that of John Cooper, circa 2000. Uh, no. Despite just two years removed from an 11-1 #2 final ranking, the erstwhile Buckeye chieftain had utterly lost control of his team, academics were a joke, players were fighting each other in practice, and, wonder of wonders, the program continued to lose (in 2000, embarrassingly) to SEC bowl opponents. Whilst Jim Tressel has got the better of Carr to a 6-1 tune, Michigan's image remains quite good, even with the recent trickle of dime-scale discipline problems. In short, they are in a better position, with the developing Ryan Mallet as their new leader, than Ohio State seven years ago.

Except that unlike Ohio State, UM's rejected list (both directions) has gone public. They offered Les Miles of LSU something very close but not enough, ditto with Greg Schiano of Rutgers (as to why the latter would want the Penn State position over the Michigan one, not sure I understand that), while apparently discounting Brian Kelly of Cincinnati. OSU looked seriously at Bob Stoops and Mike Belloti, yet settled on the championship game experience of Youngstown State's leader. While it is difficult to say from afar, say, an ocean removed, the UM search committee seems deadlocked on whether to find the next Lloyd Carr or break the mold.

Without question, the past few years have served as a wake-up call to the three principal football programs of the Midwest: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. ND probably still cannot believe Urban Meyer turned them down and now they're stuck with an unproven collegiate coach for the rest of his 10-year mega-contract. Obviously Michigan does not aspire to go down that route, but, in lieu of a better comparison, who is their Tressel? More to the point, is it possible for the Wolverines to hire a coach that can win the next decade against Ohio State? Of course, while the Senator's team rolls on like a well-oiled machine, 5-5 or even 6-4 is well within range. UM fans should not expect, however, a recreation of 1988-1995, an anomalous run without peer in the rivalry of The Game.

So, who should it be?

Jeff Tedford: Even the NFL has pined after this guy, irrespective of the "lost in translation" effect of his quarterbacks to the next level. Only a youthful error kept the Bears from #1 this season, then, utter calamity. They lost SIX times in their last seven games in a free-fall last seen in State College in 1999, even then LaVar, Courtney, et al. only dropped three. Putting on the UM cap (yes, as an OSU partisan in reality), the inability to displace USC for conference supremacy doesn't truly concern me, yet with their talent and alleged coaching genius, where are the BCS bowls? Yes, yes, in 2004 they got left at the altar by the teary speech given by another fair maiden, but what else?

He would break the mold and infuse the program with excitement, but would it last?

Brian Kelly: His one year in Cincy produced a tough team, yet a remarkably inconsistent one, fair enough. Unlike Tedford, not as much to go on here. For some reason he has rubbed the Next Lloyd crowd the wrong way, even though his non-Big Six conference experience could remind one of Schembechler at Miami of Ohio in the mid-1960s.

Not really breaking the mold.

Les Miles: If UM wants him, they could have him, yet they seem to want some self-flagellation from a proud man likely to win his first national championship--in the toughest conference no less. If he beats Tressel, and decisively, his price tag jumps even higher. If money and control are the issues (the latter perhaps more so), won't his demands simply grow after a projected 30-10 win over OSU? On the other hand, Ohio State hired Cooper in no small part because his Arizona State team defeated Michigan in a Rose Bowl, never fathoming they'd turn 5-4 to 2-10-1. As noted in this space, Tressel hammered a perhaps distracted Miles at an otherwise purposeless match at the Alamo Bowl in 2004. If Loquacious Les can bring two superb coordinators with him, absolutely, yet if fans questioned the Carr-DeBord strategy, is this guy that big of an improvement? Has he won a game as an underdog at LSU? The Bayou Bengals got stuffed in two tough SEC roadies last year, walloped ND, then fell twice in triple overtime, narrowing slipping past Florida and Auburn along the way in 2007. Would Michigan take some of the same athletes as LSU? Just asking...

He would break the mold, in part because the mold is fighting against him, for reasons not particularly clear at this juncture.

Chris Peterson: Last year, the "hot" coach with his Boise State team that earned the respect of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, this year, sans the trusty QB, two setbacks. His play-calling wowed a nation, yet he is but an inheritor of what Dan Hawkins built from the ground up.

Michigan would struggle to break the mold to a greater extent than this hire.

The Man to Hire...

Could UM entice the Ol' Ball Coach, as he would DO what JoePa failed to accomplish: winning eight of ten conference crowns. Spurrier would run off 7-1 after 7-1 and probably win a few Rose Bowls and another title. He could leave South Carolina, he's done it before. Few coaches would perform better against Tressel in psychological gamesmenship. With Joe Paterno likely moving on soon, Spurrier's entry would fulfill a needed niche for the conference, unless you expect the Zooker to contend for titles year in and year out.

Problems?

No way, plus OBC thinks he isn't far from catching FLA and UGA and figures that a greater feat than winning Big 10 title after Big 10 title. He also doesn't fit the lineage, even if his mentality is closer to Fielding Yost and his "Point a Minute" offense of the early 1900s.

Final Order:

1) Steve Spurrier - offer total control
2) Brian Kelly - some reservations
3) Jeff Tedford - narrowly over Miles
4) Les Miles - only if he wins championship
5) Ron English - the defensive coordinator, perhaps Lloyd's preferred choice

They wouldn't actually hire the Ball State guy, would they?