Last year, on a now-defunct blog, I boldly predicted, before their dismantling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, the 2007 national champion: LSU. I picked the Bayou Bengals irrespective of projected first-round draft choice losses to include their star quarterback due to a perceived friendly schedule buttressed by a virtual home-game in the BCS Championship.
Looking pretty good right about now. Yes, it took some resistance to the massive, heavily-overblown hype emanating from Los Angeles, but I stuck to my guns, and even predicted a two-loss season for the USC Trojans. Also, correct. Obviously, I didn't foresee two losses for the Tigers, particularly the last one, at home, to Arkansas, but this season proved the one for such a resume. Now, for all my USC criticism, I actually like them quite a bit next season, provided they beat the Buckeyes in a huge September game at the Coliseum.
All of the rough roadies (Eugene, Tempe) are home games and if Notre Dame has improved at all, that one is also in Los Angeles. Arizona State might improve some more, Oregon is headed for a fall, NO ONE should trust California, Washington will get better, Oregon State never starts out quickly enough, and it's very hard to see another 8-1 team in the Pac-10. Stanford? Jim Harbaugh's team will likely make strides too, but if they finish 6-3 in conference play, well, he should win Coach of the Year honors.
Mark Sanchez, now a little older (presumably, he stays heathly) emerges as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate to battle Ohio State's Chris Wells and of course the defending champion from Gainesville, plus the prodigious depth and newfound experience of their wide receivers. I would expect the defense, whilst losing some key players, to continue to have little trouble in conference play and likely with Todd Boeckman (unless the latter comes up big in the Not Sugar).
Their Road to the Not Orange (along with RT2020 spread):
@ Virginia (-13)
v. Ohio State (-9)
@ Oregon State (-5)
v. Oregon (-18)
v. Arizona State (-14)
@ Washington State (-20)
@ Arizona (-14)
v. Washington (-4)
v. California (-21)
@ Stanford (-20)
v. Notre Dame (-24)
@ UCLA (-13)
A solid favorite in every matchup, pending, once again, the result of Ohio State's game against LSU. If the Buckeyes win, that game in LA is a toss up, if not slightly more than a touchdown. I actually think U-Dub, with Locker a year older, could pose the most significant threat, particularly because USC might overlook them if California is off to a nice start. Their first three tilts, however, are brutal. USC's last trip to Corvallis ended with a loss, but I can easily see the Trojans still winning comfortably. Once more, six road clashes, which we should commend, but not as unruly as 2007 (even if NEB and ND fell on their faces). After smashing Illinois, they will have a haunting memory of the Stanford game that cost them a chance to beat Ohio State... unless of course all the media outlets again go gaga over this team and project them to beat 1995 Nebraska.
Twelve-and-oh, mark it down. So, who will they play? A rematch with Ohio State is not out of the question (the Bucks host both Penn State and Michigan), if the game is close and the Big 10 fields at least one other ten-win team. I don't think so, however, as I think the other slot to the Orange is coming out of the SEC (of course).
And that team is the one with the best player and the best coach in America.
The Gator Slate:
v. Hawaii (-27)
v. Miami (-30)
@ Tennessee (-10)
v. Ole Miss (-31)
@ Arkansas (-24)
v. LSU (-13)
v. Kentucky (-30)
n. Georgia (-3)
@ Vanderbilt (-21)
v. South Carolina (-7)
v. Citadel (-45)
@ Florida State (-27)
n. Auburn (-17, projected SEC West opponent in Atlanta)
Hurrah, no Auburn! And just four road games. The early test in Knoxville should tell the tale. Tennessee, utterly trashed by #15 in 2007, will show some pride next season--but I'm not persuaded that the Vols, ten years removed from their last conference championship, are good enough to beat Florida. The Gators will have a more experienced defense, a better Percy Harvin, and perhaps (finally) a true running back to take some pressure off Tebow. Sans Colt Brennan, even a Rainbow Warrior team that clips Georgia will have no chance at the Swamp. The battle with Georgia will determine control of the SEC East and perhaps the national title race, which will hinge on whether the Gator defense has stiffened enough not to allow Georgia's sensational sophomore tailback, echoes of Walker and Hearst, to run through them again. LSU will drop, UK will plummet, good year to play Miami, but watch out for the crafty OBC late in the year. The Citadel game, alone, gives USC's schedule a big edge, and the absence of Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama leave this slate highly likely to finish with nary a blemish.
Thirteen-and-oh, and at least another NYC trip for Tim Tebow. Barring a total calamity in the Capital One, I will place Florida at #1 in the 2008 preseason poll, if this blog runs that far. It is possible even a loss to Georgia, provided the Dawgs fall twice in the SEC, wouldn't keep Florida out of their first Orange Bowl since 2001. Seven years prior to next season, in Steve Spurrier's last campaign, the Mighty Gators also opened at #1, and as mentioned previously, no Auburn to ruin things... at least not until Championship Saturday.
Bottom line: Unless the Superhero QB goes down for an extended time in at least one game, this team has 70/30 odds to run the table and perhaps 80/20 to reach Miami. FLA's offense will rate as the country's best, which means an improved D will only need to keep one team (UGA) below twenty-four. Given the coaching abilities of Meyer, his team should complete just the second undefeated SEC run since 1998 (Auburn, of course, 2004).
So, Florida #1, USC #2, what about anyone else? Or is this a reprisal of 2004-05, when the top two team stayed 1-2 all season long? We briefly referenced Georgia as perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Gators, what of their schedule?
v. Georgia Southern (-31)
v. Central Michigan (-24)
@ South Carolina (Even)
@ Arizona State!!! (-3)
v. Alabama (-8)
Bye
v. Tennessee (-14)
v. Vanderbilt (-21)
@ LSU (Even)
n. Florida (+3)
@ Kentucky (-30)
@ Auburn (Even)
Bye
v. Georgia Tech (-17)
At first glance, too difficult. How about that two-week quinella of Columbia and Tempe? Yikes. The game with SoCaro, especially since the OBC rolled into town, is always a vicious contest with few touchdowns. I suspect ASU will drop off, but I maintain winning on the road, presumably this one will take place under the lights, in Sun Devil Stadium is one the toughest tests for any team, Pac-10 or otherwise. Then come Alabama and a revenge match against the Vols. After a semi-breather against Vandy (don't get caught looking ahead!) the monster showdowns occur at the Rouge and J'ville. If that wasn't enough, Auburn lurks toward the end. Verdict: 10-2 if they're lucky, but a win over Florida would likely send them to Atlanta so long as they lost only one SEC contest. Unless the defense truly raises their level of play and they can get consistent play from signal-caller Matt Stafford, not a viable championship game threat, though probably a return trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Top 5 ranking in the final Bowl Championship Series.
Oklahoma? Yes, a real threat, and a bit of a break in not seeing Missouri in the regular season--even though the Sooners own them for all intents and purposes. I cannot find their complete schedule, but a 12-1 season is well within reach, possibly more if Sam Bradford continues his improvement.
Finally, a dark horse candidate in Morgantown, especially if Terry Bowden ends up the next coach at West Virginia. If Steve Slaton and Patrick White remain, plus Noel Devine, don't but it past the new boss. Remember Auburn '93? Then-new coach Bowden rode Patrick Nix, Stephen Davis, and Frank Sanders to an 11-0 mark punctuated by enormous wins over Florida (the SEC champ) and Alabama (bitter rival and SEC West champ) despite probation. He could do it again. The biggest problem is Auburn, the first game for the Mountaineers of 2008. The entire schedule does look inviting, with a possible danger in Boulder. A dark horse, but with the right coach, a threat nonetheless.
Super-Early Top 5:
1. Florida (14-0)
2. Southern California (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (13-1)
4. Georgia (11-3)
5. Ohio State (11-2)
BCS Championship: #1 Florida v. #2 USC = FLA 41 USC 28
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma v. Georgia (at-large) = OU 19 UGA 7
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia = VT 31 WVA 24
Fiesta Bowl: Illinois (at-large) v. Missouri (at-large) = ILL 21 MIZZ 10
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Arizona State (at-large) = OSU 24 ASU 23
Super-Early Top 5 Heisman:
1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (if 13-0, will not be denied a second trophy)
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (chance if UGA beats FLA)
3. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State (needs huge game at USC)
4. Patrick White, QB, West Virginia (last chance for WVA to fulfill promise)
5. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (your 2009 winner?)
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