Saturday, January 5, 2008

You Can Argue Against Ohio State...

but can you truly argue for anyone else?

Some have complained quietly and not-so quietly that Ohio State does not deserve to take the field in Monday's BCS Championship Game in N'Orleans. Colin Cowherd, an interesting host on ESPN Radio, made a good point about how the system loses when teams get rewarded for playing inferior competition. So, let's get a few things out of the way.

1) OSU played a Division I-AA or subdivision school in the form of Youngstown State, inexcusable, no doubt about it, which is why this game doesn't count in the BCS.

2) The Buckeyes toughest non-conference game, in a slate that included Akron, was a mid-afternoon tilt in Seattle, a team that could not defeat Hawaii and finished well off the pace in the Pac-10. Here is the dirty little secret: few in Columbus thought 2007 was a title-aspiring year, knowing that Troy Smith and others were on the way out, and, importantly, knowing odd-years mean trips to State College and Ann Arbor. Yes, I can fall under the label of "Buckeye homer" but I maintain you must grade OSU's schedule differently in odd-numbered years.

3) Ohio State lost AT HOME to a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog and second-place team in their conference that failed to defeat a weak Iowa team earlier in the year. It was only the self-destructive qualities of the Illini against Michigan that cost the Zookers a share of the conference crown.

In almost any other year, save perhaps 1990, this resume is nowhere near good enough to play for a title. Consider that in 2002 the Bucks defeated a quality opponent in Texas Tech, the co-Pac 10 champion (Wazzu State), in addition to their full Big 10 slate, net, 13-0. Last year they beat defending national champion Texas in Austin, plus #2 Michigan to close the season, net, 12-0. Ok, 2007 clearly doesn't measure up, and the home loss reeks of 1998, so we have made that clear. On the other hand?

In ascending order of merit, with final verdict*:

HAWAII (pre-Sugar Bowl embarrassment): Yes, Michigan could've played them, and yes, they head to Gainesville next season, so what. Their second-best win of the year was by seven, at home, to a less-healthy Washington team that Ohio State beat by nineteen in the Northwest. Are you going to tell me Boise State, again at home, is a better win than Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State? Did anyone play an easier schedule? ANYONE? If you pick this undefeated team you're also buying Tulane '98 over Florida State or even Boise State '06 over Florida.

VERDICT: Hell no. The question is whether the Rainbow Warriors even deserved a Top 25 ranking.

KANSAS (pre-Orange Bowl win): When a team played a significantly weaker strength of schedule than Ohio State, well, that doesn't say much for its chances. No Oklahoma, no Texas. They did beat Colorado in Boulder, but in their ONE huge game of the season they got smacked around by Missouri, and that was closer to a home game than a roadie. It was a better loss than OSU's, but the Buckeyes wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are better than KU's three best regular season wins.

VERDICT: Beat the teams it should, lost to the one it could have beat, did not schedule an OOC game even on the level of OSU/WSH, a firm no.

WEST VIRGINIA (pre-Fiesta Bowl domination): Let's begin by saying their non-conference schedule did include a game against the SEC. Good. Yet, the disappearance of South Florida from the national picture really hurts them here, the Bulls didn't even come close to the conference crown after reaching #2 in the polls at one point. And after a severe thrashing of UCONN the week prior, a 9-13 "L" at the hands of a non-bowl Pittsburgh team, AT HOME, requires a word stronger than "choke" and I have none for the occasion. Once again, two losses, and the last one much worse than Ohio State's and Oklahoma's to Colorado.

VERDICT: No team since Oklahoma '01 soiled themselves at a more inopportune time and I don't care if Patrick White had to leave the game, they only needed ONE MORE TOUCHDOWN!!!, an easy no.

VIRGINIA TECH (pre-Orange Bowl loss): Really? You're telling me the ACC is that much rougher than the Big 10, honestly? And do teams that lose 7-45, even if on the road to the eventual #2, deserve title shots? Ohio State lost by seven, in a game influenced by a terrible non-fumble in the first quarter, and never felt threatened deep into the fourth in any of their other games. Furthermore, the Hokies choked at home against Matt Ryan and the Golden Eagles, or they would have likely earned a rematch against LSU.

VERDICT: No, but credit to playing LSU at Tiger Stadium, yet you need to do better than a thirty-eight point loss, and while this season you could lose at home, to do so AND get blown out of the road, no, irrespective of the computers.

OKLAHOMA (pre-Fiesta Bowl calamity): I love the two wins over Missouri, even before the Tigers shredded Arkansas, Texas wasn't terrible this year either. On the other hand, while we can paper over the loss in Lubbock due to Sam Bradford's concussion (maybe), what do we say of the debacle in Boulder? Did you see Colorado in a bowl game this season? This also wasn't an out of conference tilt, but a non-division game, played against a struggling program. Bottom line: a worse loss than OSU's to Illinois and the extra loss kills their candidacy.

VERDICT: Close, but no. Two losses, neither to a team playing in a major bowl game is just not going to get it done, 24-7 in Boulder, boys, 24-7 in Boulder.

MISSOURI (pre-Cotton Bowl triumph): I love the SEC and Big 10 OOC tilts, especially since the Big 10 team DID beat Ohio State. Two losses stings but both were to OU--and they beat Kansas on neutral/unfriendly ground. I guess there is one way to answer this, if the Bucks drew the Sooners in Norman and in San Antonio, could they win either game? The odds are reasonable, but the late loss (decisively too) is the difference.

VERDICT: Very close, but no. Excellent resume, just needed a split with OU and couldn't get it.

GEORGIA (pre-Sugar Bowl walloping): I had them #1 before their bowl game and they didn't disappoint, perhaps the hottest team in America and the only one to convincingly defeat Florida. Still, South Carolina, as noted before in this space, did them no favors late in the year, and the atrocious performance in Knoxville killed their title hopes. A win over the Vols would have drawn them LSU and possibly given them another huge win. Also, despite the powerful SEC, no nice OOC win (Tempe comes next autumn), and no division title.

VERDICT: Toss-up, would they beat OSU? Yes. Does that erase the stigma of a 0-35 deficit to Tennessee and a home loss to a conference foe that collapsed? Georgia Tech fell away too, give me the Bucks, no for the Dawgs.

USC (pre-Rose Bowl smashing): Let's make one thing clear, if they beat Stanford, no one has a problem with their title game presence, only question is whether OSU or LSU plays them. The loss to Oregon in Eugene to a healthy Dennis Dixon, once a Heisman frontrunner, is better than any of the other losses in consideration. Although Cal disappeared, the Pac-10 still had a good year, and the Trojans went 5-1 on the road to include the always rowdy Sun Devil Stadium. Notre Dame didn't help them, though. You have to love Coach Pete Carroll's fearlessness (okay, maybe not in the case of Idaho--but look at 2008) and the six road games. The enormous question: does a team that would likely take Ohio State still deserve to jump them with a FORTY-POINT FAVORED HOME LOSS TO A NON-BOWL TEAM A WEEK PRIOR TO PLAYING ANOTHER NON-BOWL TEAM? In other words, Michigan may have looked ahead to Oregon whilst playing Appy State, what was Troy's excuse???

VERDICT: Stanford beat a deflated Cal, yet did nothing else the rest of the year, to include losing to an Irish team that fell AT HOME to Air Force and (gasp) Navy. I don't care if John David Booty's finger or injuries and inexperience permitted a BACK-UP QB to hit multiple fourth-down passes to end it 24-23, Cardinal--in the COLISEUM!!! I'm sorry, you are a bona fide dynasty, but the Stanford loss coupled with a tough one at Autzen doesn't give you much of an argument, even if a better one than anyone else.

Conclusions...

Hawaii, Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma clearly lose the argument, at least to my mind. Missouri, Georgia, and USC do have a case, but for reasons aforementioned it is not a particularly good one, even for the latter two schools. In fact, USC '02 had a better argument against OSU '02, due to two close road losses to two very good teams in a vicious schedule to include a good Notre Dame team, then in the present.

Everyone had holes this year, no major school went undefeated and no major school with one-loss had a better track-record than Ohio State. Are some two loss schools better? Yes, perhaps one, perhaps three, perhaps five, did ANY of them clearly earn the bid over the Bucks?

The fair-minded would say, no. Put simply, Ohio State could not have chosen a better year to lose a home game, not in the past and realistically not in the future. Virginia Tech, Georgia, and USC all lost home games plus a road game. It was the most remarkable year at the top, in terms of chaos, we are likely to ever see. But who knows, truly, what 2008 will bring?

*LSU was not considered because folks view them as the de facto #1 team by way of their favored status over Ohio State and because they only rank below the Buckeyes because they lost their second game later, and again in triple overtime, even if AT HOME.

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