Monday, November 26, 2007

Week 14 Preview: Prelude to a Championship

They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just one favorite to win a game to qualify for the Not Sugar just over a month from now. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for another team (MIZZ and WVA) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a seven-point home loss in early November. Here sit the Ohio State Buckeyes, 10-1 (scrap the D-1AA game, as the BCS does), waiting for these two teams.

They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just two favorites to win a game to qualify for a BCS game, three for the Rose Bowl. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for three of these four teams (MIZZ, TEN, BC, HI) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a penalty-filled home loss to Michigan which cost them the Big 10 title. Here sit the Illinois Fightin' Illini, waiting for those three teams.

VERDICT: Big 10 denied, yessir, lot of money riding on this slate of games for Mr. Delaney and the crew...

Missouri v. Oklahoma (San Antonio): The Big 12 Championship. Had the Sooners avoided the upset bug in Lubbock, this game would pit #1 v. #2 perhaps, even so, only one team was headed to N'Orleans. I liked the way the Tigers played in Norman until their self-destructive nature kicked in leading to a 31-41 loss to Sam Bradford and OU, still smarting after a dubious collapse in Boulder. Bob Stoops is the better coach, Oklahoma has the better athletes, but is Chase Daniel and, gasp, Missouri speed enough to put a perennial mediocrity on Bourbon Street? There is a chance if Missouri loses a close one the BCS will keep them above Kansas and thus in line for a possible BCS game. The North has won just TWICE in this contest since the turn of the century (2001, a upset of #2 Texas by Colorado; 2003, a smackdown for the ages of #1-by-a-country-mile Oklahoma courtesy of Darren Sproles and Kansas State) and OU has smashed through several times. The support of the college football world, what of it is not spent in Morgantown, rides with the feel-good story of those boys from Columbia. Will the Buckeyes once again play the role of villains? No, in a classic, Missouri marches on and Chase Daniel takes the Heisman Trophy from Tim Tebow. MIZZ 37 OU 31

Pittsburgh @ West Virginia: Yes, folks are often impressed by shiny objects, and it doesn't come shinier than a 66-21 whipping of UCONN to sew up a conference title. This game will determine which week WVA plays in N'Orleans, heaven knows they want zero part of LSU. Look for this one to remain undecided into the second half, it is the Backyard Brawl after all and the 2007 season might have one more epic upset in store for us. Nah, who am I kidding? The Mountaineer defense bent but didn't break last week, if they can hold the Panthers to twenty-five, this one is a blowout. More hosannas, thus, on the way. WVA 56 PIT 16

Boston College v. Virginia Tech: The ACC Championship and a rematch of a stirring comeback/collapse earlier this season in Blacksburg. At that time, Matt Ryan seemed to have his hands all over the Heisman, a pair of bad losses plus a rejeuvenation at Clemson ended the Golden Eagles title hopes but do give them a credible Orange Bowl shot. Tech is the better team with a better defense but an inferior quarterback, which means the game is once again in Ryan's hands, with a seat in NYC beckoning. Chestnut Hill gorges itself over oranges. BC 27 VT 23

LSU v. Tennessee: The SEC Championship and a thorough letdown. Not only is surging Georgia not here but neither is a one-loss (de facto unbeaten in SEC-speak) Bayou Bengal squad. Instead we have the bumbling Vols with their embattled coach taking on a distracted Tiger team that cannot feel too confident about their play as of late. Fortunately, Tennessee doesn't run the ball like it used to, you know, back when it last won the conference title (1998?!?). Years ago, Matt Mauck flummoxed a gassed #2 Tennessee, whose running back had nothing left after an awesome display in Gainesville the week prior, and cost them a title bout with Miami. Revenge of 2001? Eh, not so much. LSU (Coach Miles last game?) 30 UT 20

UCLA @ USC: The battle for the Ax. Revenge. Less than fondly remembering a horse-whipping in 2005 at the hands of Bush, White, and Co., the Baby Blues rose up and decimated Trojan hopes in 2006 to the tune of a 9-13 loss that ushered Florida into the Not Fiesta. Far from being incensed, Pete Carroll should extend some gratitude: the Bruins bounced Oregon from the Rose Bowl perch last week, now, once again, it is all on UCLA. Not close. USC 51 UCLA 21

Washington @ Hawaii: Our last unbeaten in D-1A looks to enter Fiesta Bowl deliberations with a win over a Pac-10 doormat beaten down by perhaps the nation's toughest schedule. While Illinois looks on praying not only for a Huskies upset but also that men in blazers don't think upon their Iowa performance, Colt Brennan, with, say, 7 TD and 700 yards passing, can join Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, and Ryan in the Big Apple. Does Hawaii deserve a BCS bid over Illinois? No, but that's coming from a Buckeye sympathizer. Will they get one? Yes. HI 45 WASH 36

Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 1, MIZZ win)

Daniel, McFadden, Tebow, Brennan, and Ryan

Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 2, MIZZ loss)

Tebow, McFadden, Daniel, Brennan, and Ryan

Predicted ballot: Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, Brennan, Ryan

Predicted BCS lineup:

Not Sugar: #1 Missouri v. #2 West Virginia (Big 12 and Big East teams)
Fiesta Bowl and Orange Bowl lose conference champions
Rose Bowl: Ohio State and USC
Sugar Bowl: LSU and Kansas
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State and Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Boston College and Georgia

Sunday, November 25, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 25

1. Missouri (+1)
2. Ohio State (+1)
3. West Virginia (+1)
4. Georgia (+1)
5. Louisiana State (-4)
6. Southern California (+4)
7. Virginia Tech (+3)
8. Florida (NC)
9. Kansas (-3)
10. Illinois (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+4)
12. Auburn (+1)
13. Tennessee (-1)
14. Arizona State (-7)
15. Wisconsin (+5)
16. Arkansas (+8)
17. Boston College (+5)
18. Michigan (+3)
19. Hawaii (+4)
20. Virginia (-4)
21. South Florida (NR)
22. Brigham Young (NR)
23. Clemson (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Penn State (NR)

Sublime: #1 Missouri, #3 West Virginia, and #6 Southern California

Laid an Egg: #5 LSU, #9 Kansas, and #14 Arizona State

Unreal. That was my initial reaction to the end of LSU's title run yesterday to Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, some H-back, and practically everyone who wanted to run the ball against the once-fearsome Tigers. Almost 400 yards--on the ground. An inability to force a key turnover late in the second half or on three Hog OT drives. I had believed in the Bayou Bengals since last December, even to the point of assuming without #1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell that this crew would prove better than 11-2. Yes, I thought the offense would rate as less explosive sans two NFL first-round picks at wideout, but I didn't count on the defense. Yes, D-Mac is spectacular and maybe a Heisman threat again (more below), but no self-respecting defense should allow an improvised wishbone to gash it time after time. Yes, this same thing happened to Ohio State, also at home, but to a better team with a uniquely-skilled quarterback. Also, the Bucks coughed it up repeatedly, LSU didn't make a mistake until Matt Flynn's last pass deep in the third overtime. And still lost.

Les Miles, it is now safe to pursue the Michigan job, but what a clunker to end your meaningful LSU tenure. All of those athletes and promse, yet two-losses every season. Last year, the schedule made that understandable, this season? Not so much. No program in America had a more title-friendly slate than the Bayou Bengals and they failed to get it done, and the fact both defeats came in triple overtime shouldn't ease their pain or the criticism. Don't worry, a trip to N'Orleans is still in the offering, yet, remarkably, with only the same stakes as last year.

Congratulations to the new #1 and illest of luck against Oklahoma next week. Chase Daniel had a Heisman Trophy moment in KC, but he has to do it again or the Tigers will blow their best opportunity in decades. Kansas proved that they were not the best team in the nation, sorry computers. They beat no one and lost the only game that mattered, in the words I once presumptively addressed to WVA, goodbye to all that. Nice season, but not a worthy performance of an 11-0 team, yes, the game could've been played in Lawrence, but Daniel was simply the best player on the field, the match will prove tougher, however, next week.

Yes, crushing a ranked conference opponent at home is very impressive, but don't tell me the Mountaineers didn't run up the score! Patrick White played a phenomenal game and WVA just hammered the overrated Huskies to death. Some of those plays were all White and any BCS Championship Game opponent is going to have a difficult time with that explosive, high-octane rushing attack. If you can make White throw it, well, you should beat this team, if not, ugh. I see one Mr. Schlabach, drank the Kool-Aid in full, we'll see, sir, we'll see. Hit this team in the mouth like South Florida and see what happens. This school has never won a national championship and failed miserably in its two efforts (1988 and 1993) with undefeated seasons. UCONN was a lucky team that got smoked, if anyone thinks yesterday's result was more than that, I don't know what else to tell you. On the other hand, give Mr. Schlabach credit, unlike other sniveling, condescending anti-OSUers, he came right out and said it, point-blank: Ohio State has no chance to beat West Virginia and should save themselves the embarrassment of trying. Fair enough. Forty-one to fourteen has a loud ring.

Boise State, overrated by much of the country (pointing at self), should not appear in the next AP poll. They played two borderline tough teams and got smoked by both, last-place Washington and the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii. Look, Colt Brennan is a top quarterback and he played tremendously last night, but spare me this talk of Hawaii as a Top 15 team. You're telling me they're more deserving of a BCS bid then Georgia or Illinois, or even the loser of the Big 12 North title game? I'm just not buying it. A win next week, though, and they will certainly receive a bid.

Kudos to Pete Carroll and USC for finally showing what 99% of the football world forecast in August (but not me, hey, give me something after the LSU/UM Not Sugar prognostication) by dismantling a good ASU team in Tempe. Had he stayed healthy and played like this all year, John David Booty likely takes the Heisman Trophy. In any event, the Trojans are well-positioned to finish in the Top 5 for the sixth consecutive season, the longest stretch since Florida State earned FOURTEEN such marks from 1987-2000.

BCS Prediction:

1) Missouri
2) West Virginia
3) Ohio State

The Bucks will probably trail badly in the human polls because people tend to be impressed by shiny objects, but the computers may look kinder on their one-loss season.

Heisman ballot:

1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
2) Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
3) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

Tebow was tremendous yet again, but the ball is entirely in Daniel's court, even if he isn't quite 40-49 next week, a win over likely favored OU will make this a fascinating three-way race that may hinge on which southern player carries the SEC region. D-Mac had his best performance of the season in the biggest game, knocking the favorite out of the national title picture in the process.

Sunday, November 18, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 18

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Missouri (+3)
3. Ohio State (+6)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Georgia (+2)
6. Kansas (-2)
7. Arizona State (+1)
8. Florida (+2)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Southern California (+2)
11. Texas (+4)
12. Illinois (+5)
13. Auburn (+6)
14. Tennessee (+2)
15. Oklahoma (-12)
16. Virginia (+7)
17. Boise State (+3)
18. Oregon (-16)
19. Connecticut (NR)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. Michigan (-7)
22. Boston College (NR)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Arkansas (NR)
25. Florida State (NR)

When your QB goes down... #2 Oregon and #3 Oklahoma

Tip of my hat: #22 Boston College and #23 Hawaii(!!!) for impressive road wins

After Illinois at #12, I have no real idea, winner of BSU/HAW to get validation

Musings...

LSU's offense remains questionable, but if they don't have to play Georgia they should cruise past Arkansas and Tennessee to host the Not Sugar, which, of course, they will win. SEC teams, don't you know, need not even play in the final game to be ranked #1...

My sympathies to the Oregon faithful, one play from 14-0 with a Heisman nearly in the grasp, a tipped pass in the endzone began a stretch that ultimately led to Dennis Dixon's exit from this season and as likely as not Oregon's shot at even making the Rose Bowl. If USC can defeat Arizona State and Oregon wins out, they will still play (likely) Ohio State, but without their greatest benefactor, can they win? I seem them struggling to beat UCLA.

Kansas hater? They have yet to beat a single team in the AP Poll, but they will get a stiff test next week in Kansas City. Missouri's loss to Oklahoma took yet another step down the ladder with the Sooners debacle in Lubbock last night, would beating a two-loss OU team for the Big 12 title to finish 12-1 really seem all that impressive? The one thing they have going for them is they beat Illinois, which Ohio State failed to do. If they win it, they will go. If Kansas wins out, they will go. Nonetheless, a big piece of OSU's puzzle to reach the title game panned out with the Red Raiders win.

West Virginia may claim to have a case too, if they beat Connecticut and Pittsburgh to claim the outright Big East title, only a loss to South Florida has blemished their season. On the other hand, they don't have a signature victory, with their biggest win of the year coming at Piscataway. Will the Bucks jump them in the latest BCS poll? Hmmm...

As for Ohio State, here are some years for you: NEVER, 1981, 1963, NEVER. Answers? The last time the Bucks won both at State College and Ann Arbor in the same season; the last time OSU won two straight games in Michigan Stadium; the last time the Scarelet and Gray won FOUR straight in the series (unbeaten from 1972-75, but with a tie); the last time OSU won SIX out of SEVEN in the series. If you consider that Michigan ended 1997 with an 8-1-1 mark in the last ten meetings, they've gone only 3-7 since, two of those wins in 1999 and 2000. A vicious OSU defense plus the elements limited Michigan to a season-low in total yardage and the fourth-lowest point total in the history of the game.

Chris Wells is a bona fide Heisman candidate for next season and may have back-doored his way into the Top 5 for this season. Ohio State didn't attempt a pass in the second half, and absent a few plays, Beanie rumbled and rumbled, scoring twice, including a 62-yard back-breaker that will be seen on many August Heisman campaign videos next season. If Todd Boeckman can play better next year and a few juniors stick around, this is your preseason #2 team, behind...

The Gators, sigh. I've resigned myself to the fate of Tim Tebow winning the Heisman Trophy despite Florida's lack of a division title. Without him, quite simply, Florida would be struggling for bowl eligibility. The schedule was nasty this season, an older defense and an even more experienced #15 will bode very well for Urban Meyer next season, even more so if LSU is dealing with an expected coaching change.

Bottom line: OSU didn't get everything they needed this week, but a nice eleven-point win over Michigan plus the end of Oregon and (critically) Oklahoma might just make it a race to the finish between West Virginia (which can impress or extinguish themselves) and Tressel-led Bucks. Of all the Big 12 teams to lose today, OU was the one they needed, simply because OU is more likely, with its better athletes to beat the Big 12 North champion, especially if it's Kansas. Missouri played them well, in Norman, despite a so-so game from Heisman contender Chase Daniel.

Preview for next week unavailable due to travel, key games....

Southern California @ Arizona State: This is a game made for USC and their experience. It's very hard to win here, especially at night, but give the Trojans the edge and the inside track to Pasadena. USC 31 ASU 24

Boise State @ Hawaii: If Colt Brennan can't play, the Rainbow Warriors have no chance. I think he goes, but the reigning Fiesta Bowl champions can smell another visit, wouldn't OU be thrilled to see them again? BSU 29 HAW 23

Connecticut @ West Virginia: For the Big East title, the mystery-fluke team versus the one that always gets unnerved in these situations. A decisive win here either jumps the Bucks or gives them some breathing room. White and Slaton roll, a loss here would be inexcusable. WVA 45 CT 13

IRON BOWL: The South's greatest rivalry has lost some of its luster, namely, ALA cannot beat AUB. Nick Saban was brought here to win this game above all others, but the Tide have sleepwalked through two straight games and lost three straight overall. That can all go away with a tough win on the Plains. No, AUB is just a better team. AUB 19 ALA 12

Arkansas @ Louisiana State: Strange as it sounds, Darren McFadden can still win the Heisman Trophy, with a 150-yard and two score game against a defense recently punctured by.... Mississippi??? Ugh. ARK running game versus the Tiger defensive line, strength versus strength. Not at the Rouge, though. LSU 30 ARK 17

GAME OF THE WEEK...

Missouri @ Kansas: Two enter, one will leave with the division crown, which for the first time since 2001 actually means something, perhaps more so with OU reeling. Two high-scoring offenses with highly-rated quarterbacks. It is safe to say these two schools will never play a bigger game than this one. I just the Tigers are a little better than the Jayhawks, who foolishly scheduled this game away from Lawrence. The last undefeated Big Six conference school goes down, and hard. Chase Daniel books a ticket to New York City. MIZZ 34 KS 20

Heisman ballot (11/18): Tebow, Daniel, Dixon, Wells, and White

Projected BCS Standings (11/18):

1) LSU
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) West Virginia
5) Ohio State*

*Mainly because OU's computer ranking of #7 fell below OSU's own #6 last week, this should help the Mountaineers hold off a Buckeye surge in the polls. I expect OSU to be ranked #5 and WVA #4, it should prove very, very close though.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Week 12 Preview: Ecstasy of Small Minds

Fans around the country, at one time or another, truly believe the national media is not on their side: obviously, these individuals are paranoid, but in the case of Ohio State they are absolutely right. Rather than NOT voting OSU #1--hell, as a decided partisan I never did--the media belittled their accomplishments (no real non-conference schedule, uh, what about Kansas, and how in the world does their computer ranking look so good? Wins over the Sooners, haven't played. Wins over Missouri, haven't played. Wins over Texas, uh, won't play. At all.) Sorry about that rant back there. The NYT article which recapped the game reeked of Eastern elitism from a certified Buckeye disparager, Mr. Pete Thamel. Rather than having the courage to offer his own opinion, i.e. Buckeyes suck, he hid behind the mirth emanating from southern quarters.

Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.

It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...

Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13

Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12

Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21

Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23

West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24

Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27

Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35

Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24

Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13

Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White

Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)

Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%

Sunday, November 11, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 11

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Kansas (+2)
5. Missouri (NC)
6. West Virginia (+1)
7. Georgia (+3)
8. Arizona State (NC)
9. Ohio State (-6)
10. Florida (+2)
11. Virginia Tech (+4)
12. Southern California (+1)
13. Clemson (+9)
14. Michigan (-5)
15. Texas (+1)
16. Tennessee (+4)
17. Illinois (+8)
18. Mississippi State (NR)
19. Auburn (-8)
20. Boise State (+2)
21. Cincinnati (+2)
22. Virginia (NR)
23. Penn State (NR)
24. Kentucky (NR)
25. Maryland (NR)

End of the Dream: #9 Ohio State

Utter Fraud (but still better than Hawaii): Boston College

Poise and Composure: #1 LSU, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Kansas

Embarrassing losses: #14 Michigan and #19 Auburn

Rapid Risers: #13(???) Clemson, #17 Illinois, #18 Mississippi State

Heisman ballot: Dennis Dixon, Tim Tebow, Chase Daniel, and Patrick White

Top Ten for BCS Bowls: LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan (hint, hint for next week), and Virginia Tech (projected conference champions) + USC/Arizona State, Kansas, Georgia/Florida, and, aaaaaarrrrrrrggggggghhhhhh, that team from the islands.

Not Sugar: #1 LSU v. #2 Oregon
Orange: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia
Sugar: Oklahoma v. Georgia
Fiesta: Kansas v. Hawaii
Rose: Arizona State v. Michigan

I think the Rose Bowl is inclined to take a Pac-10 team as their first choice (ORE's slot) whereas the Sugar (LSU's) would feel persuaded to take an 11-1 Oklahoma team probably rated #3 in the BCS. If the Jayhawks beat Missouri, I think they are assured of a spot, losing to OU would keep them in the Top 6 of the BCS standings. The Buckeyes, despite 1997, 2003, and 2005, cannot get in with two losses, they won't even rate in the Top 12 if that happens.

Capital One (maybe?) Bowl bound: #9 Ohio State, after all, should Illinois win out, they would have the tiebreaker for #2 in the Big 10, yes, a lot was lost yesterday.

Depressed thoughts of an OSU partisan...

Illinois played almost the perfect game yesterday in Ohio Stadium, perhaps calling on the spirits of prior Illini teams that vanquished OSU in C-Bus. Zero turnovers and one penalty do a lot of wins make, even on the road, even at the alleged #1 team in all the land. Time will only tell if this was the breakout game for Juice Williams, who finally showed his prodigious potential. I cannot recall a team in memory to rush for more than 250 yards on the banks of the O-River. Yes, an eighty-yard run (plus fumble???) may have inflated their stats a bit, but the much-celebrated linebacking corps made zero plays, forced zero mistakes, and generally looked as feeble against the run as the Bucks did in Ann Arbor four years prior: gulp. I guess the positive news for the country is that the clearly-not-Top-4-conference Big 10 will receive only one BCS team, kind of humiliating, but certainly fair. Both the Pac-10 and the SEC emphatically deserve two teams, the latter possibly three but the rules don't allow it. Coach Tressel has a LOT of work to do to get his troops ready for The Game. The stench is bad, but another win in Michigan Stadium would at least lock down the Rose Bowl, very possibly to draw the same team they last played there (ASU).

Kudos to the rest of the Top 5, particularly the Jayhawks. No, I still don't think they can beat Oklahoma, but if they do, goodness, someone is going to be very unhappy among the triumvirate, probably Oregon. Moral: don't lose a home game, particularly not to a team that nosedives the rest of the season.

I had to think twice about ranking OSU above Florida, and by the way, Tim Tebow just needs one slip by Tennessee AND Georgia to capture the East and warrant a rematch against LSU. The sophomore quarterback is pretty much the ONLY reason the Mighty Gators aren't 2-6 in the SEC as opposed to a very good 5-3. Not that South Carolina has a defense or anything. If Tennessee and Georgia both win out, the Vols take the East and the Dawgs are in line to play in the Sugar Bowl.

Can we say that the national title race is down to five teams? Yes, as I don't think West Virginia can get there and the Suckeyes are certainly out of the mix too. Missouri has the toughest road, they almost certainly need a loss by Oregon and/or LSU to reach the Top 2, on the other hand, if they can defeat Kansas and OU, plus throw in Illini's (whom they beat) win over Ohio State, they can make a case. As for the Fightin' Manginos, our key precedent is 1999: that year, the voters and the computers took an unbeaten Big 6 conference champ (VT) over a more powerful one-loss team (NEB) to play Florida State, a 46-29 victory may lead one to believe they chose wrong.

In any event, if it comes down to an LSU, Oregon, and Big 12 champ argument, I will tabulate each team's CLUTCH ranking (points for road and neutral site wins against Big 6 competition and the program formally known as Notre Dame).

Monday, November 5, 2007

Week 11 Preview: Great Games in August...

Do not always equal fine match-ups in November, with that in mind, let us proceed...

Louisville @ West Virginia: The last two years, this contest has ranked among the most entertaining and dramatic of any in college football--it may well reprise that role this Thursday night, yet, will anyone bother? Surely ESPN must frown over what this game--billed as a national championship elimination match in August--has degenerated into ever since Louisville failed to protect a late lead in Lexington. The Mountaineers have mostly done their part, however, and presumed big games by Patrick White and Steve Slaton, gentlemen who well remember the debacle last year at the Papa John, will keep Morgantown's slim title shot alive. WVA 51 LOU 23

Illinois @ Ohio State: Once upon a time, the Illini won four consecutive games at Ohio Stadium, a streak not snapped until Eddie George's Buckeye record rushing total in 1995, yet, two more Ls on the banks of the O-River followed in 1999 and 2001. Illinois has won six times in Columbus since 1986. For comparison, Michigan has needed six additional years to accumulate six wins at the 'Shoe. On the other hand, the Bucks hammered the Illini 40-2 two years ago and lead 17-0 in Champaign before running out the clock to a 17-10 win. A few weeks ago, Illini looked as compelling a Big 10 title contender as either OSU or UM, then, alas, came the Iowa game. Pardon me if I'm not terribly impressed by Juice and Mendenhall's huge days at the Metrodome. Illinois does have a good defense though and may keep this one close well into the fourth quarter. Beanie Wells, though, continues to roll. OSU 24 ILL 19

Kansas @ Oklahoma State: After yet another Michigan State imitation (a massively blown lead to Texas) last week, the Cowboys and their explosive offense welcome the finest Jayhawk team in many an autumn. As mentioned yesterday, concerns abound from the lackluster KU defensive effort against hapless Nebraska, despite the "76" on their side of the ledger. West Virginia, among others, eagerly wait for this team to flop under the burden of weighty expectations--as the WVA always does this themselves, they figure others must suffer the same fate. Look for the Pokes to mope a little too long, Coach Mangino and Co. escape Stillwater, reminiscient of the 2000 Sooners. KU 31 OSU 21

Auburn @ Georgia: The Dawgs, fresh off their uninspiring effort against Troy (my, what a non-conference schedule!) host the tough Tigers between the hedges. Georgia needs another L from Tennessee, but, thanks to Moreno, have begun to think SEC title, which would calculate to Mark Richt's third in six seasons, a pace not seen in Athens since the Dooley Era. Still, I think Auburn is a mentally-tougher team and no coach in America is better than Tommy Tuberville on the road, they'll be some head-knockin' in this one, touchdowns at a premium? AUB 17 UGA 13

Michigan @ Wisconsin: Akin to WVA-LOU, many pundits saw the Big 10 race come down to this clash in Madison. Two years ago, Bucky finally got over the Wolverine hump, yet registered their only loss of 2006 in Ann Arbor. These games always seem to go the same way: Wisky tries to ram it down UM's throat, and the blue-and-yellow helmets repel every assault, the Wolverines make one or two big plays and that is that. After humilations to Penn State and Ohio State, plus a missed opportunity at Illinois, the once-solid Badgers are reeling. Does that mean... uh, no. UM 42 WIS 20

Florida @ South Carolina: The Gators last stand to defend their conference championship and Tebow's bid to reclaim his Heisman standing. The OBC just got destroyed in Fayetteville, so he'll prove no doubt relieved to see the talent of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones nowhere on the Florida roster. Two years ago, SoCaro upset Urban Meyer in his first year, last fall, only a tremendous FG block by future NFL first-rounder (no word if he gave tOSU some of his DEN signing bonus) saved a loss at the Swamp. Look for Tebow to have a big day, as the Gators just might get a rematch with LSU after all. FLA 32 SoCaro 14

USC @ California: No, the Pac-10 title will not be won in Berkeley, absent a major upset, the Oregon Ducks will take their first crown since 2001. The Trojans, destined to go down as one of the most colossally-overrated preseason teams ever (at least FSU '93 lived up to the hype), could potentially drop their third game in the conference. For once, CAL has the best player on the field in DeSean Jackson, yet Pete Carroll (who may never receive another pro offer quite like the one at the end of last season) has bludgeoned the Bears two consecutive years, three straight wins if one includes the California domination-turned-loss in Los Angeles in 2004. The Tedfords don't quite rate with the NEBs and NDs for disappointing years, but close, and it will get worse. USC 35 CAL 27

Arkansas @ Tennessee: The Vols limped out of Fayeteville last year and if they wish to prevail in the SEC East they must avenge that loss Saturday. McFadden, with another 200 yard (or more) day, could persuade some Heisman voters that he is the best player in college football even if his team is out of the SEC race. Few teams have been as up-and-down as TEN, but the "downs" of CAL, FLA, and ALA don't augur well for the Razorback ground attack. Smiles from #5 and Urban Meyer. ARK 28 TEN 24

Sunday, November 4, 2007

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 4

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (NC)
4. Oklahoma (NC)
5. Missouri (+1)
6. Kansas (+1)
7. West Virginia (+2)
8. Arizona State (-3)
9. Michigan (+2)
10. Georgia (NC)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Florida (+3)
13. Southern California (+3)
14. Connecticut (-1)
15. Virginia Tech (+3)
16. Texas (+3)
17. Arkansas (+6)
18. Boston College (-10)
19. Alabama (-5)
20. Tennessee (4)
21. California (+1)
22. Boise State (NR)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Clemson (NR)
25. Illinois (NR)

That's the end of you: South Florida, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma State

Special Mention: Navy

Still no Hawaii...

Credit to an embattled Matt Flynn and an opportunistic (if overrated) LSU defense for keeping the Tigers national title hopes very much alive. Nick Saban nearly pulled this one out after a long punt return for a touchdown, but the Bayou Bengals roared back, convincingly, and won 41-34. Barely, just barely, LSU stays #1.

Oregon impressed, but so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't quit after an avalanche of Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon TD tosses, down 3-21, they rallied behind the splendid play of Rudy Carpenter, perhaps not 100%, and until a late fumble just after a completed deep ball (a score there would've made matters 30-35) did not go away. The better team won, as the Ducks snapped out of a two-quarter funk through hard running by All America candidate Jonathan Stewart. Of chief concern for the Ducks: the injury to their star QB. Fortunately, Oregon now has their three toughest Pac-10 tests behind them, finishing 2-1. The comparisons to LSU will go on for some time, and, yes, many people are secretly hoping a certain team falls in two weeks so they can take both to the Not Sugar.

Trailing 10-17 late in the third, it looked like the same-old same-old for Ohio State against Wisconsin--as in not enough points and another home defeat, which would have made four straight. Not this time. A riled up defense shut out the Badgers the rest of the way, and Beanie Wells and Co. (the O-line) went on a 28-0 run to ice the game. Wells is setting himself up nicely as a Heisman candidate for 2008, although, if Dixon can't play much the remainder of the season, and #28 bowls over you-know-who in two weeks, well... Todd Boeckman, as predicted here, did not play as well as last week: fortunately, he didn't need to. Still, if he plays like he did in the late first through the early fourth quarter in Ann Arbor the Bucks will lose. For the fourth time in five years, Jim Tressel's team starts 9-1 or better. Congrats, too, on breaking Michigan's Big 10 record for consecutive victories with twenty.

Speaking of UM, they're 13-1 in the last fourteen Big 10 games, as Chad Henne gutted out the performance of his career to erase a 14-24 deficit, and prove, once again, why Sparty is Sparty. Michigan State couldn't make a clutch first down and relinquished the football, alas, everyone in the building knew what would follow. As result of fewer than 130 yards and no scores, it seems the Heisman dream is over for Mike Hart. Even if H20 carries his team to a Big 10 title, it is likely not going to prove enough to take it from a quarterback. A 10-2 finish, though, would net him the prized Doak and a seat in NYC with Dixon, Tebow, and Ryan.

If Matt Ryan had a Heisman moment last week with his awesome final strike to nip Virginia Tech, his third interception definitely gave his backers something to reconsider. The BCS computers (and pollsters) had long overrated this team, which, let us remind you, struggled with the now 1-8 Irish. Ryan put up spectacular numbers, yet the average Golden Eagle defense allowed an eye-popping 450+ yards to a Florida State offense that last accomplished those numbers in a major tilt seven years ago. Yes, I had the Seminoles, and now it appeared it was only a matter of time before the new media darling crashed and burned. Can Ryan still win the Heisman? Well, it helps if Dixon can't play, but if Tebow wins the SEC title for Florida, the BC signal-caller isn't going to beat him either. We may also look back on this game as yet another national title lost for Ohio State, pending the results of their game in Michigan Stadium and bowl opponent.

The travails of Nebraska continue. While KU's 76-39 result will look like an early season hoops score, some skepticism is warranted. Sans Sam Keller, and at home, that is an awful lot of points to give up to the Huskers, and NEB only scored eight in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just a fluke game, but Missouri has a much better defense and with Chase Daniel, still a darkhorse Heisman candidate, an offense to put up forty on the Fightin' Manginos. The question now becomes, as one of only two undefeated Big Six conference teams, is whether an undefeated Kansas can creep all the way to the top two and secure a most improbable spot in the Not Sugar.

As for the Tigers, for whatever reason they ran up the score in Boulder, perhaps to send a message to the voters: we're a Top 5 team. If they can trip up unbeaten Kansas in KC then a rematch with Oklahoma and a possible national title shot awaits. It is this blogger's feeling, though, that either OU or MIZZ/KS needs a Buckeye loss to have a serious chance, even then, the pull for Oregon and LSU may prove too strong.

BCS Musings...

Ohio State, obviously, controls its own destiny. Irrespective of whatever SOS the Pac-10 and SEC champs boast, neither can ascend to #1 on their own. Despite the big points for beating previously unbeaten Arizona State, LSU will still remain ahead of Oregon in the computers, the question is whether the humans boost the Ducks in the polls from #5 to #3 or #2. If #2, I think they overtake LSU, if not, the Bayou Bengals would hold an extraordinarily tenuous margin. The wildcard is Kansas, the Jayhawks will advance to #1 in Jeff Sagarin's rankings and possibly jump from #5 to #3 in the computers, that, coupled with a predicted ascent to #6 in the polls, would give KU (6-6-3 = 5) enough to leapfrog idle West Virginia. Oklahoma does not have the computer ranking to compete for the national championship unless they somehow can secure the #2 slot in the polls. Either Oregon or LSU would jump them from #3 due to the computer ranking? Payback for the ridiculously strong OU 2003 finish in the computers that forced a rule change because it sent a team that had lost its conference title game 7-35 to the BCS Championship.

Predicted order...

1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Oregon
4) Kansas
5) Oklahoma

Heisman talk...

The plot thickens as the most interesting Heisman race in years continues to evolve. Dennis Dixon keeps my #1 vote, yet it's going to prove hard to keep him there if he plays sparingly from here on out, with coaches hoping to save him for the Rose Bowl or the Not Sugar. Matt Ryan has the numbers, yet a home loss to unranked FSU on the heels of a lucky escape in Blacksburg with no out of conference win (thanks, ND) to show for itself has to drop him back, behind Tebow, in the conversation. Great games against South Carolina, Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game would vault Tebow, a true sophomore, to the top of the list. Unfortunately for him, though, if Tennessee doesn't lose again then the Gators, despite a 59-20 win over the Vols, will not play LSU in Atlanta. Given that one SEC player has won the award since Bo Jackson, it defies logic to presume a three-loss, non-division winning team player can do so. Things would seem to set up well for Darren McFadden, but his partner-in-crime Felix Jones continues to take away the big guy's carries, scores, and spotlight. Hypothetical: 400 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and two Michigan wins. Question: is it enough for Mike Hart to claim the trophy at the last moment? Carson Palmer did do something remarkably similar in 2002. We might ask the same question of another Big 10 tailback, should Ohio State run the table.

Heisman ballot: Dixon, Tebow, Ryan, Hart, and, yes, Chris Wells