Crickets in Ann Arbor

Because Florida State still has to play Clemson tomorrow, I will hold off on my new Top 25, Heisman update, and UK review (well done, gentlemen). In the meantime, well, there's no getting around it, I have to create a rationale for the 32-34 defeat suffered by my #2 team (#5 nationally), on their home field, with four preseason-possible All Americas on offense, including my Heisman pick, to a subdivision team from the mountains of North Carolina.

No Virginia, Michigan football will not finish 12-0 this November or hold the crystal football in N'Orleans. Yes, they have lost their third consecutive game, allowing at least thirty points in each of them.

My strong Ohio State sympathies aside, yesterday's result was awful for a conference decimated in two BCS games last January, and schadenfreude is not a part of this post--especially when I have so much egg on my face as a prognosticator. Suffice to say, the Wolverines will not rank #2 in the next poll. Before digging into the particulars, a word about Mike Hart. The All America was the ONLY reason Michigan even led in the second half (for about three minutes) after his sizzling 54-yard run to paydirt. Well, from here on in, matters will read considerably darker for the blue-and-yellow helmets.

Grasping for straws, I want to reiterate that this team should still win the Big 10 title, but getting out of September looks a good deal more challenging than, say, last week.

And all praise to Appalachian State...

Speed kills. Or perhaps more importantly, it camouflages if not erases other deficits, namely strength and size. App-y State looked to have superior speed at the skill positions, which shouldn't necessarily shock us. A few years ago, when considering the merits of all-time university teams, I discounted both UM and Notre Dame (their 3-33 pasting doesn't even warrant elaboration) on account of speed. Save for their co-title 1997 season, loaded with Charles Woodson, Ian Gold, Dhani Jones, and James Hall, Michigan has not boasted fast defenses. Even last year, their incredible game one through eleven statistics resulted from a vicious run defense, not speed in the back seven. Of course, it is quite possible UM will not face another quarterback as problematic as Armanti Edwards, who may have played the best first half of any quarterback, ever (no incompletions, no turnovers, four total TDs).

While Edwards, when not crushed by Crable and Co., crashed down to earth throughout most of the second half, he still had enough scrambling ability and arm strength to drive his team in the final 1:30. Just as Troy Smith had done on the very same field in November 2005. Michigan fans would well note the similarities between the home team's possessions prior to those final drives. Nursing a one-point lead, UM drew a critical penalty on third-and-short, forcing a throw on third-and-long. Given that Hart had rumbled for around 120 yards in the second half, no small thing. Unlike 2005 v. OSU, when Lloyd Carr opted for the pooch punt, Michigan tried a field goal, only to see it blocked. Within a play, App-y State had found the M logo, and didn't look back.

Now, great (or allegedly great) teams win with stars, and clearly UM lost this game because #20 wasn't much of a factor in the mid-portion, and #86 was all but invisible. The latter of course refers to Mario Manningham, previously rated as an ICBM in some quarters, and the best WR in the country (gulp) in others. Aside from a potentially game-saving grab in the final fifteen seconds, he contributed virtually nothing of significance to the cause. For an All-America, a disastrous day.

Which brings us to Chad Henne. After an impressive opening, 0-3 took on an inconsistent form for the rest of the afternoon, awful, in terms of the forced interception in the second half. Thirty-two offensive points is normally a job well done for quarterbacks, yet not with this offense, once considered Top 5 in the nation. Henne could not ice the game late in the fourth and did not complete enough third-and-medium throws to allow UM to escape the Big House with a W.

I think most sensible people understood UM's defense would kill its chance at a national title; I just thought it would take until the Not Sugar for this to occur. Losing that many key players (ask OSU 2006) is very difficult to overcome. The secondary, however, is even more precarious then last autumn. Absent Leon Hall, UM has no defensive backs worthy of praise, except perhaps a freshman that is not yet Law or Jackson. Fortunately, save for Oregon, very few teams on their schedule are equipped to take full advantage of it. Neither Penn State, Wisconsin, nor Ohio State present a quarterback as challenging as Edwards, which means UM should defeat all of them, particularly since two of the three are in Ann Arbor. We don't even have to mention the Irish, do we?

Next week is huge for Michigan, but not as big as the Penn State game. Whether UM wins or loses will have almost no bearing on the Big 10 race, save to break a possible 7-1, 6-2 tie for the right to play USC/Texas/Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. A second loss, though, would place enormous pressure on Coach Carr and categorically eliminate a BCS slot absent a conference title. So, I'll take Michigan to stomp the Ducks (2003 revenge?) by four touchdowns, with 200+ for Heisman Hart. Of course, I'm also the fellow who predicted Michigan would beat USC and OSU in 2006, OSU in 2005, Texas in 2004, so perhaps my clairvoyance is best left to U. S. presidential elections.