Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Yes, RT2020 has been harping on this game for the entire season, irrespective of Bucky's record, no team has given Jim Tressel's Buckeyes more trouble than U-Dub. Worse, OSU has not managed to defeat Wisconsin--at home--since, wait for it, 1996. The final score then, incidentally, read 17-14, this from one of a handful of Ohio State teams to record a +300 DELTA. On the other hand, Buckeye teams generally don't smash Penn State under the lights at Beaver Stadium, and P. J. Hill, in the same mould as Ron Dayne and Anthony Davis, may or may not go. Senator Tressel has accumulated a less-than-sterling 1-3 record against the Badgers, the lone win coming in the 2002 title season at Camp Randall. Todd Boeckman will not play that well again, yet can Wisconsin score enough? PSU throttled them a few weeks ago, still, by all means take the points. Give Ryan Petroius a clutch kick to allow the Bucks to escape. OSU 20 WIS 19
Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13
Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20
Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21
Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28
Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Sunday, October 28, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 28
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)
Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon
End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech
Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina
The UK Category: Kentucky
A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut
Musings...
Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.
I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.
LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.
A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.
Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.
Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.
I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?
Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?
Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.
Projected BCS Standings:
1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)
Heisman ballot:
1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it
OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL
Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA
Just for fun...
FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)
2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)
Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon
End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech
Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina
The UK Category: Kentucky
A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut
Musings...
Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.
I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.
LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.
A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.
Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.
Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.
I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?
Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?
Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.
Projected BCS Standings:
1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)
Heisman ballot:
1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it
OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL
Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA
Just for fun...
FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)
2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus
Monday, October 22, 2007
Week 9 Preview: The First One Now Will...
Later be Last? Yes, I see the times a-changin for some current conference leaders this weekend - the most important collection of games thus far. More and more dough is accumulating at the center of the table. Time to see who's for real.
Boston College @ Virginia Tech: Look, I know Ohio State's schedule is less than arduous, but the computers, sans Billingsley, must've given BC credit for defeating '93 ND instead of the '07 version. What have they done??? How are they rated ahead of LSU? I hope Mr. Edwards will let me know later today, nonetheless... the Hokies have a history of flopping in big-time home night tilts in the last few years, namely to Pittsburgh and Miami. How good is Virginia Tech? Neither of these teams has impressed me, but absent a Heisman day from Matt Ryan, the Golden Eagles will return to Chesnut Hill with a blemish. VT 24 BC 14
Ohio State @ Penn State: RT2020 has gone back and forth on this one. This Nittany Lion edition is less imposing than 2005 yet better than 2003, need I remind you which contest OSU won in Happy Valley. The OSU offense, however, significantly rated better then (2005) as opposed to now, save for perhaps at tailback. PSU has some speed on the outside, but, check the records, they haven't scored twenty points on the Bucks since 2001. In other words, they don't frighten me. What does scare me is Todd Boeckman reprising his performance from the 2H of last week. If OSU doesn't turn it over, they could win easily--their defense is playing that well and Anthony Morelli has yet to justify the #14 jersey to them. Yeah, but White Out II will end poorly nonetheless, another title shot buried beneath an abundance of sacks and critical turnovers plus one PSU big-gainer. Get ready to chortle, Mr. Maisel. PSU 27 OSU 13
California @ Arizona State: I have no idea how good the Sun Devils are and neither does anyone else, of course, I'm not sure what beating the once-formidable Bears would do for their reputation anyway. Here is what I do know: DeSean Jackson is the best player on the field, and it wasn't his fault the Tedfords fell to the Bruins last week. Night games in Tempe, however, can turn into nightmares: look no further than Nebraska, circa 1996, when they still rated as a national power. Also, for all his foibles, Denny-K wins big games. ASU 34 CAL 31 OT
USC @ Oregon: My, these battles just keep on coming. Pete Carroll has owned Mike Belloti for the better part of a decade, a supposedly tough quarrel at Autzen in 2005 quickly degenerated after recess into another walk-through for the GREATEST TEAM EVER! This time, with Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, Oregon has the better offense if not the best in the nation. After all, Michigan's defense has clamped down since their 7-32 debacle, and may run the board in the Big 10. Yet, whether with Mark Sanchez or John David Booty, this is a made-to-order game for the Trojans. A win here puts them in a position to claim another conference championship at Tempe. Can they score enough points? Will Oregon make enough mistakes? Is my #2 team the genuine article? Yeah. ORE 41 USC 28
West Virginia @ Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights aren't a particularly good team (read: the MD game), but they are nasty in Piscataway. Last year, the Schianos blew a conference title in the closing seconds over a dispirited WVA team mostly going through the motions in Morgantown. Patrick White looked very good last week against competition that defeated Auburn and looks to lead the Mountaineers back to the Sugar Bowl. WVA 30 RUT 24
Kansas @ Texas A&M: Aggie Nation believed a small sign of relief with their second half dismantling of the once-powerful Nebraska program, yet a win here could guarantee yet another year for one of the oiliest men in the coaching fraternity, Denny-F, who still doesn't understand he is where he is because of LaDainian Tomlinson. In any event, the Fightin' Mangioes boast a vicious defense and just claimed a nice road win in Boulder. Yet, are they ready for the Twelfth Man in College Station? Survey says... no. TAMU 27 KS 19
South Florida @ Connecticut: After failing to show maturity last Thursday night, the Bulls can show that they're not going to allow a conference title to slip away--yet it's another tough road games, against, that's right, the #1 team in the Big East, fresh off a controversial win over the ineptitude that is the U of L post-Petrino. UCONN is a long way to travel for the disappointed once-#2s, good thing Jim Leavitt gets to take all that speed with him up north. USF 23 UCONN 20
Florida @ Georgia: All of sudden, yep, that sound you just heard is of the irrepressible Urban Meyer busily running the accounting machine on just how he can maneuever the Gators back to the Not Sugar discussion. Having Tim Tebow, my Heisman front-runner, assists that mission. Playing UGA, a team FLA has owned for more than a decade, ditto. America's top college coach has still not lost a game to the Hard Triangle (UGA, TEN, FSU) and with more fireworks from #15 the Mighty Gators might roll to fitty again. FLA 47 UGA 21
South Carolina @ Tennessee: Will the OBC recover against the coach he's tormented over the years? Phil Fulmer got some satisfaction from last year's decisive win in Columbia, yet his team is reeling after another embarrassing conference loss--again to a huge rival. Plus, it has been nine loooong years (and counting) since Rocky Top last held the SEC crown. Fear the Vols, however, as an underdog, something the Dawgs learned all too well last year. Erik Ainge, while not all-conference worthy, is still a better bet than the 'Cocks have, and no, Mr. Meyer will not like this result. TEN 26 SoCaro 23
If you're scoring at home, or as Olbermann once had it, even if you're alone, RT2020 sees the #1 team in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East all slipping up, mostly because three of them play away from home. Despite their ghastly #14 computer ranking, Oklahoma would jump right back into the national title game picture if such a scenario came to pass.
Heisman Watch: Tebow (up), Dixon (up), Jackson (up), and Ryan (down)
Projected BCS Standings (Oct 28):
1) LSU
2) Oregon
3) Arizona State
4) Oklahoma
5) Virginia Tech
And...
8) Florida
Aaaaarrrrrgggggghhhhh... their stranglehold on the money-making NCAA sports national titles may not yet have concluded. Should you perceive my ratcheting up of Gator hype and increased Tebow for Heisman cheerleading as some pitiful and ultimately in vain reverse psychology ploy, well... why the cynicism???
Boston College @ Virginia Tech: Look, I know Ohio State's schedule is less than arduous, but the computers, sans Billingsley, must've given BC credit for defeating '93 ND instead of the '07 version. What have they done??? How are they rated ahead of LSU? I hope Mr. Edwards will let me know later today, nonetheless... the Hokies have a history of flopping in big-time home night tilts in the last few years, namely to Pittsburgh and Miami. How good is Virginia Tech? Neither of these teams has impressed me, but absent a Heisman day from Matt Ryan, the Golden Eagles will return to Chesnut Hill with a blemish. VT 24 BC 14
Ohio State @ Penn State: RT2020 has gone back and forth on this one. This Nittany Lion edition is less imposing than 2005 yet better than 2003, need I remind you which contest OSU won in Happy Valley. The OSU offense, however, significantly rated better then (2005) as opposed to now, save for perhaps at tailback. PSU has some speed on the outside, but, check the records, they haven't scored twenty points on the Bucks since 2001. In other words, they don't frighten me. What does scare me is Todd Boeckman reprising his performance from the 2H of last week. If OSU doesn't turn it over, they could win easily--their defense is playing that well and Anthony Morelli has yet to justify the #14 jersey to them. Yeah, but White Out II will end poorly nonetheless, another title shot buried beneath an abundance of sacks and critical turnovers plus one PSU big-gainer. Get ready to chortle, Mr. Maisel. PSU 27 OSU 13
California @ Arizona State: I have no idea how good the Sun Devils are and neither does anyone else, of course, I'm not sure what beating the once-formidable Bears would do for their reputation anyway. Here is what I do know: DeSean Jackson is the best player on the field, and it wasn't his fault the Tedfords fell to the Bruins last week. Night games in Tempe, however, can turn into nightmares: look no further than Nebraska, circa 1996, when they still rated as a national power. Also, for all his foibles, Denny-K wins big games. ASU 34 CAL 31 OT
USC @ Oregon: My, these battles just keep on coming. Pete Carroll has owned Mike Belloti for the better part of a decade, a supposedly tough quarrel at Autzen in 2005 quickly degenerated after recess into another walk-through for the GREATEST TEAM EVER! This time, with Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, Oregon has the better offense if not the best in the nation. After all, Michigan's defense has clamped down since their 7-32 debacle, and may run the board in the Big 10. Yet, whether with Mark Sanchez or John David Booty, this is a made-to-order game for the Trojans. A win here puts them in a position to claim another conference championship at Tempe. Can they score enough points? Will Oregon make enough mistakes? Is my #2 team the genuine article? Yeah. ORE 41 USC 28
West Virginia @ Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights aren't a particularly good team (read: the MD game), but they are nasty in Piscataway. Last year, the Schianos blew a conference title in the closing seconds over a dispirited WVA team mostly going through the motions in Morgantown. Patrick White looked very good last week against competition that defeated Auburn and looks to lead the Mountaineers back to the Sugar Bowl. WVA 30 RUT 24
Kansas @ Texas A&M: Aggie Nation believed a small sign of relief with their second half dismantling of the once-powerful Nebraska program, yet a win here could guarantee yet another year for one of the oiliest men in the coaching fraternity, Denny-F, who still doesn't understand he is where he is because of LaDainian Tomlinson. In any event, the Fightin' Mangioes boast a vicious defense and just claimed a nice road win in Boulder. Yet, are they ready for the Twelfth Man in College Station? Survey says... no. TAMU 27 KS 19
South Florida @ Connecticut: After failing to show maturity last Thursday night, the Bulls can show that they're not going to allow a conference title to slip away--yet it's another tough road games, against, that's right, the #1 team in the Big East, fresh off a controversial win over the ineptitude that is the U of L post-Petrino. UCONN is a long way to travel for the disappointed once-#2s, good thing Jim Leavitt gets to take all that speed with him up north. USF 23 UCONN 20
Florida @ Georgia: All of sudden, yep, that sound you just heard is of the irrepressible Urban Meyer busily running the accounting machine on just how he can maneuever the Gators back to the Not Sugar discussion. Having Tim Tebow, my Heisman front-runner, assists that mission. Playing UGA, a team FLA has owned for more than a decade, ditto. America's top college coach has still not lost a game to the Hard Triangle (UGA, TEN, FSU) and with more fireworks from #15 the Mighty Gators might roll to fitty again. FLA 47 UGA 21
South Carolina @ Tennessee: Will the OBC recover against the coach he's tormented over the years? Phil Fulmer got some satisfaction from last year's decisive win in Columbia, yet his team is reeling after another embarrassing conference loss--again to a huge rival. Plus, it has been nine loooong years (and counting) since Rocky Top last held the SEC crown. Fear the Vols, however, as an underdog, something the Dawgs learned all too well last year. Erik Ainge, while not all-conference worthy, is still a better bet than the 'Cocks have, and no, Mr. Meyer will not like this result. TEN 26 SoCaro 23
If you're scoring at home, or as Olbermann once had it, even if you're alone, RT2020 sees the #1 team in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East all slipping up, mostly because three of them play away from home. Despite their ghastly #14 computer ranking, Oklahoma would jump right back into the national title game picture if such a scenario came to pass.
Heisman Watch: Tebow (up), Dixon (up), Jackson (up), and Ryan (down)
Projected BCS Standings (Oct 28):
1) LSU
2) Oregon
3) Arizona State
4) Oklahoma
5) Virginia Tech
And...
8) Florida
Aaaaarrrrrgggggghhhhh... their stranglehold on the money-making NCAA sports national titles may not yet have concluded. Should you perceive my ratcheting up of Gator hype and increased Tebow for Heisman cheerleading as some pitiful and ultimately in vain reverse psychology ploy, well... why the cynicism???
Sunday, October 21, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 21
1. Louisiana State (+1)
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)
Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee
Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California
Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State
Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas
Brief commentary...
Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.
That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.
A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.
The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.
As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.
USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.
The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.
Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)
Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee
Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California
Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State
Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas
Brief commentary...
Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.
That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.
A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.
The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.
As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.
USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.
The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.
Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart
Monday, October 15, 2007
Undefeated Suckeyes: Guaranteed Shot?
Oops, pardon my imitation of the college football world less than pleased at the prospect of another appearance by The Ohio State University in a BCS Championship Game. The Buckeyes, as last year, debuted at #1 in the BCS Standings, due to their strength over South Florida in the polls, which, essentially, owes to their higher preseason ranking (#11).
RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.
So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.
In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:
1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1
Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:
1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2
Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.
Again:
1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0
Aggregate: 10-2
1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1
Aggregate: 4-8
Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.
Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.
We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.
Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?
Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...
If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.
Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.
Others...
South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!
Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.
If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.
Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.
RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.
So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.
In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:
1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1
Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:
1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2
Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.
Again:
1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0
Aggregate: 10-2
1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1
Aggregate: 4-8
Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.
Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.
We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.
Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?
Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...
If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.
Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.
Others...
South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!
Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.
If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.
Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.
Week 8 Preview: Beat-a-bull?
South Florida @ Rutgers: Welcome to the national championship chase, USF. If the season ended today, the Bulls would play for it all. Alas, it does not, and worse for the highest-ranked team from Florida, key games are on the horizon. Thursday night is such a test... and the eyes of the football world will rest on Piscataway, NJ. #2 comes to town with a stingy defense and some opportunistic playmaking. Louisville helped deny Ohio State a national championship with a memorable loss under similar circumstances last year. RT2020 says USF is currently #1, but Ray Rice and Company will prove undefeated a bridge too far, RUT 25 USF 20 in the upset.
Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23
Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3
Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21
Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT
Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15
USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0
Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23
Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21
Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10
Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20
Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23
Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)
Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23
Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3
Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21
Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT
Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15
USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0
Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23
Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21
Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10
Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20
Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23
Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)
Sunday, October 14, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 14
1. South Florida (+4)
2. Louisiana State (-1)
3. South Carolina (+1)
4. Oklahoma (+2)
5. Oregon (+4)
6. Ohio State (-3)
7. Boston College (NC)
8. Florida (NC)
9. California (-7)
10. Missouri (+1)
11. Arizona State (+7)
12. KENTUCKY!!!!! (+6)
13. Virginia Tech (+3)
14. Kansas (+5)
15. West Virginia (-5)
16. Auburn (+6)
17. Michigan (+3)
18. Southern California (-6)
19. Penn State (NR)
20. Tennessee (+4)
21. Maryland (DNP)
22. Georgia (+3)
23. Texas (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (NR)
Ugliness abounds: #13 (told ya so) Cincinnati, #14 (rush to leave that bandwagon) Illinois, #15 Florida State, and #21 (where'd the D go) Wisconsin
Poise? What poise?: #1 LSU, #2 California, and #12 USC
Yes, I suppose we have to rank you: #24 (ugly road win) Hawaii and #19 Penn State
Unbeaten only due to schedule: #6 Ohio State and #7 Boston College
Well, then... Our deepest thanks, Lones Seiber, wow.
Are you prepared to wake up in a college football world with Ohio State leading the BCS Standings??? What is this, 2006 all over again? No, safely, Florida has two defeats. More Top 5 shakeup on this... the second full weekend in October.
Yes, I still have LSU at #1. They lost only in triple OT, albeit to an inferior team, on the road. They still have wins over Virginia Tech and Florida. That having been said... YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY erased a double-digit halftime lead on the nation's best defense, forced OT, made an especially clutch field goal to force the third session, and... a defense that had been gashed all day on the ground held LSU to nine yards on four carries when it mattered most. The Bayou Bengals don't deserve to fall off the top spot, not with Cal pulling a Tedford--at home to an unranked but talented Oregon State squad. I am thisclose to putting South Florida numero uno (wins at Auburn and against West Virginia), but not yet... oh, all right. The Bulls also callously ran up the score on Central Florida, unaware that now all they have to do is win out to improbably reach N'Orleans for the Not-Sugar. FOX executives, swallow USF v. BC!
Why does an admitted OSU partisan drop the Bucks after a forty-five point win? How about getting outrushed at home by a MAC team? Nitpicking? What does the OSU line think Rashad Mendenhall is going to do, let alone Mike Hart? Yes, the scoring defense remains second to none, but we saw this last year. Win at State College, over the resurgent Nittany Lions, and then I will start to buy into another BCS bowl appearance. On the other hand, what do we know about Boston College? A decent victory under the once-Golden Dome (yeah, I missed this game) against a 1-5 Irish team that struggles to get out of their own way. Matt Ryan, in the absence of a superior performance, has a real shot at not just reaching New York City...
Good job by the Sooners as well, though, not as impressive as I would have thought. Sam Bradford is going to have an outside shot at representing OU at the big ceremony, even if the Oklahoma schedule becomes easier due to the lack of another Big 12 power. Chase Daniel and the Missouri Tigers are a very good team, and may have a chance to upset the BCS title game picture in the Big 12 Championship, except that Kansas looms. That's right, only the Jayhawks remain undefeated, and as for Nebraska, well, perhaps the less said the better (housed, in Lincoln, by thirty-one). What is this, 1995? Er, we wouldn't have seen the Okie State result in 1995...
I suppose Mark Sanchez and the USC Trojans earn minimal points for perservering through a 20-13 hard slog against Arizona, check that, no they don't. Is this not a team headed for defeat in Eugene, Tempe, and Berkeley? True, all of those qualify as USC signature games, but their offense has posted just forty-three points, with a net margin of six, in their last two home games against "meh" opposition. Yet, if they can find a way to win out, well, let's not discuss the possibility of a team that lost to Stanford at home playing for all the marbles.
Can I rank Auburn even higher? Two losses says I cannot, even though they stifled once-Heisman favorite Darren McFadden and his partner-in-crime Felix Jones. Watch out at the Rouge, LSU. That game will decide the SEC West. Can UK actually win the SEC East? Sure, just defeat Tebow-led Florida at Commonwealth next week and hope the Gators can upset (strange verb, no?) South Carolina in Columbia. In other words, play better there than the Cats recently did, ick.
Very, very quietly, Oregon has returned to the national title game picture, ditto West Virginia. A win by the Ducks over the Trojans would place Dennis Dixon in definite Heisman consideration, assuming that, in the nation's toughest conference (sorry, SEC) Oregon can get through without another loss. Speaking of the mighty Pac-10, you had the Sun Devils as their last undefeated team, right? Of course. The oily Denny Erickson, traveling man, somehow has his team on the doorstep of Top 10 status. Indeed, the AP voters may well put them there now. Can they beat USC when it matters? Stay tuned...
Is it too late to discount Michigan from the national title race? Yes. We're not at the point where a team can lose 7-39 in their crib and recover that significantly, but my are we headed in that direction. The more things change in the Big 10 (adding a team, utilization of the spread offense) the more they stay the same: OSU @ Michigan for the Big 10 title, winner loses the big bowl game thereafter, natch.
Lastly, in the unquestioned game of the day, the Rich Brooks for SEC Coach of the Year bus shifted out of second gear, I realize at this point my resistance is futile. Woodson didn't have his best game, yet he made no crucial errors in the second half and his defense combined with LSU's foolish happy-passing resulted in the program's biggest football win since 1964 and probably second only to the toppling of unbeaten Oklahoma to close the 1950 campaign. The Tigers never seem to play well in Lexington, yet, finally, they got bit in the Bluegrass!!!
Snapshot Heisman ballot: Andre' Woodson, Mike Hart, Tim Tebow, Matt Ryan, and Sam Bradford. #1 v. #3 next week in Lexington, H20 should go next week in Champaign. Woodson needs ten wins, Hart needs a Big 10 title w/ a victory over Ohio State, Tebow needs an SEC Championship, and Ryan needs to go undefeated.
2. Louisiana State (-1)
3. South Carolina (+1)
4. Oklahoma (+2)
5. Oregon (+4)
6. Ohio State (-3)
7. Boston College (NC)
8. Florida (NC)
9. California (-7)
10. Missouri (+1)
11. Arizona State (+7)
12. KENTUCKY!!!!! (+6)
13. Virginia Tech (+3)
14. Kansas (+5)
15. West Virginia (-5)
16. Auburn (+6)
17. Michigan (+3)
18. Southern California (-6)
19. Penn State (NR)
20. Tennessee (+4)
21. Maryland (DNP)
22. Georgia (+3)
23. Texas (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (NR)
Ugliness abounds: #13 (told ya so) Cincinnati, #14 (rush to leave that bandwagon) Illinois, #15 Florida State, and #21 (where'd the D go) Wisconsin
Poise? What poise?: #1 LSU, #2 California, and #12 USC
Yes, I suppose we have to rank you: #24 (ugly road win) Hawaii and #19 Penn State
Unbeaten only due to schedule: #6 Ohio State and #7 Boston College
Well, then... Our deepest thanks, Lones Seiber, wow.
Are you prepared to wake up in a college football world with Ohio State leading the BCS Standings??? What is this, 2006 all over again? No, safely, Florida has two defeats. More Top 5 shakeup on this... the second full weekend in October.
Yes, I still have LSU at #1. They lost only in triple OT, albeit to an inferior team, on the road. They still have wins over Virginia Tech and Florida. That having been said... YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY erased a double-digit halftime lead on the nation's best defense, forced OT, made an especially clutch field goal to force the third session, and... a defense that had been gashed all day on the ground held LSU to nine yards on four carries when it mattered most. The Bayou Bengals don't deserve to fall off the top spot, not with Cal pulling a Tedford--at home to an unranked but talented Oregon State squad. I am thisclose to putting South Florida numero uno (wins at Auburn and against West Virginia), but not yet... oh, all right. The Bulls also callously ran up the score on Central Florida, unaware that now all they have to do is win out to improbably reach N'Orleans for the Not-Sugar. FOX executives, swallow USF v. BC!
Why does an admitted OSU partisan drop the Bucks after a forty-five point win? How about getting outrushed at home by a MAC team? Nitpicking? What does the OSU line think Rashad Mendenhall is going to do, let alone Mike Hart? Yes, the scoring defense remains second to none, but we saw this last year. Win at State College, over the resurgent Nittany Lions, and then I will start to buy into another BCS bowl appearance. On the other hand, what do we know about Boston College? A decent victory under the once-Golden Dome (yeah, I missed this game) against a 1-5 Irish team that struggles to get out of their own way. Matt Ryan, in the absence of a superior performance, has a real shot at not just reaching New York City...
Good job by the Sooners as well, though, not as impressive as I would have thought. Sam Bradford is going to have an outside shot at representing OU at the big ceremony, even if the Oklahoma schedule becomes easier due to the lack of another Big 12 power. Chase Daniel and the Missouri Tigers are a very good team, and may have a chance to upset the BCS title game picture in the Big 12 Championship, except that Kansas looms. That's right, only the Jayhawks remain undefeated, and as for Nebraska, well, perhaps the less said the better (housed, in Lincoln, by thirty-one). What is this, 1995? Er, we wouldn't have seen the Okie State result in 1995...
I suppose Mark Sanchez and the USC Trojans earn minimal points for perservering through a 20-13 hard slog against Arizona, check that, no they don't. Is this not a team headed for defeat in Eugene, Tempe, and Berkeley? True, all of those qualify as USC signature games, but their offense has posted just forty-three points, with a net margin of six, in their last two home games against "meh" opposition. Yet, if they can find a way to win out, well, let's not discuss the possibility of a team that lost to Stanford at home playing for all the marbles.
Can I rank Auburn even higher? Two losses says I cannot, even though they stifled once-Heisman favorite Darren McFadden and his partner-in-crime Felix Jones. Watch out at the Rouge, LSU. That game will decide the SEC West. Can UK actually win the SEC East? Sure, just defeat Tebow-led Florida at Commonwealth next week and hope the Gators can upset (strange verb, no?) South Carolina in Columbia. In other words, play better there than the Cats recently did, ick.
Very, very quietly, Oregon has returned to the national title game picture, ditto West Virginia. A win by the Ducks over the Trojans would place Dennis Dixon in definite Heisman consideration, assuming that, in the nation's toughest conference (sorry, SEC) Oregon can get through without another loss. Speaking of the mighty Pac-10, you had the Sun Devils as their last undefeated team, right? Of course. The oily Denny Erickson, traveling man, somehow has his team on the doorstep of Top 10 status. Indeed, the AP voters may well put them there now. Can they beat USC when it matters? Stay tuned...
Is it too late to discount Michigan from the national title race? Yes. We're not at the point where a team can lose 7-39 in their crib and recover that significantly, but my are we headed in that direction. The more things change in the Big 10 (adding a team, utilization of the spread offense) the more they stay the same: OSU @ Michigan for the Big 10 title, winner loses the big bowl game thereafter, natch.
Lastly, in the unquestioned game of the day, the Rich Brooks for SEC Coach of the Year bus shifted out of second gear, I realize at this point my resistance is futile. Woodson didn't have his best game, yet he made no crucial errors in the second half and his defense combined with LSU's foolish happy-passing resulted in the program's biggest football win since 1964 and probably second only to the toppling of unbeaten Oklahoma to close the 1950 campaign. The Tigers never seem to play well in Lexington, yet, finally, they got bit in the Bluegrass!!!
Snapshot Heisman ballot: Andre' Woodson, Mike Hart, Tim Tebow, Matt Ryan, and Sam Bradford. #1 v. #3 next week in Lexington, H20 should go next week in Champaign. Woodson needs ten wins, Hart needs a Big 10 title w/ a victory over Ohio State, Tebow needs an SEC Championship, and Ryan needs to go undefeated.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Week 7 Preview: Maturity Saturday
LSU @ Kentucky: The Bayou Bengals swing north after a euphoric SEC-defining victory over the Florida Gators and their possible Heisman Trophy winner, whereas the Cats, well, stank in Columbia, and lost their embryonic national championship hopes in a blizzard of bad turnovers. Louisiana State controls their own destiny, yet, in a theme of this week, do they have the maturity to go on the road and beat-up a talented UK offense that won't make as many mistakes at home? Yes, because this is the best team in college football, and they're eyeing a date with Oklahoma, close, for awhile, LSU 31 UK 20, as Kentucky needed to play this one at night.
Boston College @ Notre Dame: My, how the tables have turned. Remember 2002? No, what about 1993 and the epic battle ended by David Gordon's right foot? Not so coincidentally, ND has not regained their mystique since that 41-39 loss, but beating the Golden Eagles--unbeaten but relatively untested--would go a ways to restoring Domer pride. Does BC have the maturity to walk onto hallowed ground (cue the NBC music) and overwhelm an improving Irish? Long accustomed to playing the underdog in this genuninely good series, BC now is undefeated and with a Heisman candidate, ND 19 BC 17, wake up the echoes.
Missouri @ Oklahoma: The Big 12 Championship will prove won at the end of this tilt. Well, I suppose Mizz has two shots at the Sooners, but this is another test for Sam Bradford after skillfully upending once-relevant Texas last week. Can the Sooners roll over another key foe for the second straight week? Maturity, gentlemen. USC is finished as a national title contender, and their slot is now reserved for the Sooners. Sure, the Tigers thrashed the 'Huskers, but more importantly they beat a good Illinois team. The challenge here is not to allow a whipping, OU 55 MIZZ 14 to ruin their fast start, they'll see these guys again.
South Carolina @ North Carolina: A tricky matchup for the rolling 'Cocks in the middle of the SEC race. Butch Davis and the Heels just popped Miami in Chapel Hill next week. SoCaro brings a similar defense and a less-prone-to-mistakes quarterback. UNC is coming, possibly next year, but the 'Cocks get out alive, closer than most would forecast, SoCaro 24 UNC 14
Louisville @ Cincinnati: A very dangerous game for the Bearcats, likely quite pleased with themselves after vanquishing Rutgers. Despite their collapse against Kentucky, colossal upset to Syracuse, and general ineptitude against the Utes... Brian Brohm can still put the ball in the air, and the U of L can still put up the points. At 3-3, this is the last chance for Louisville to begin to salvage their season, as a beatdown in Morgantown looms. LOU 37 CIN 34, if CIN can hold down Brohm, their defense is for real and BCS bowl-worthy.
Auburn @ Arkansas: Think War Eagle might recollect the events of last year, if not, still images of Darren McFadden rumbling through the line and smashing the national title hopes of then-#2 Auburn are readily available. The Tigers still must meet LSU at the Rouge, yet their defense will face a supreme challenge in slowing down D-Mac and Felix Jones. Another Heisman-type day for #5, but the lack of consistency from the quarterback position gives this one away, AUB 23 ARK 21
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech: We don't have that much reason to believe in the Aggies, as that ill-fated trip to Coral Gables rendered a few weeks ago, on the other hand, at 5-1 and 2-0 in the Big 12, they must begin to receive serious consideration as a possible division contender. They get Texas at home, leaving only Oklahoma... and Texas Tech for South supremacy. An uneven team, they are precisely the kind most vulnerable to an ambush from "Basketball on Grass," TT 45 A&M 31
Purdue @ Michigan: Both teams had the schedules to make this one a Top 10 battle, yet a combined three embarrassing performances has left this battle wanting. The Boilers boast an offensive juggernaut of 45.0 ppg and four hundred plus... oh, that was before the Ohio State game? Silly me. Michigan's defense has had issues in four of their six contests, which could make this one more interesting than PU's recent history at the Big House suggests. Not, however, if Mike Hart has anything to say about it. MICH 41 PU 20, hope it's worse than that.
To recap...
Mature and focused: LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Auburn, and Michigan
Ripe for the picking: Boston College, Cincinnati, and Texas A@M
We didn't forget USC's game against 'Zona, did we?
Boston College @ Notre Dame: My, how the tables have turned. Remember 2002? No, what about 1993 and the epic battle ended by David Gordon's right foot? Not so coincidentally, ND has not regained their mystique since that 41-39 loss, but beating the Golden Eagles--unbeaten but relatively untested--would go a ways to restoring Domer pride. Does BC have the maturity to walk onto hallowed ground (cue the NBC music) and overwhelm an improving Irish? Long accustomed to playing the underdog in this genuninely good series, BC now is undefeated and with a Heisman candidate, ND 19 BC 17, wake up the echoes.
Missouri @ Oklahoma: The Big 12 Championship will prove won at the end of this tilt. Well, I suppose Mizz has two shots at the Sooners, but this is another test for Sam Bradford after skillfully upending once-relevant Texas last week. Can the Sooners roll over another key foe for the second straight week? Maturity, gentlemen. USC is finished as a national title contender, and their slot is now reserved for the Sooners. Sure, the Tigers thrashed the 'Huskers, but more importantly they beat a good Illinois team. The challenge here is not to allow a whipping, OU 55 MIZZ 14 to ruin their fast start, they'll see these guys again.
South Carolina @ North Carolina: A tricky matchup for the rolling 'Cocks in the middle of the SEC race. Butch Davis and the Heels just popped Miami in Chapel Hill next week. SoCaro brings a similar defense and a less-prone-to-mistakes quarterback. UNC is coming, possibly next year, but the 'Cocks get out alive, closer than most would forecast, SoCaro 24 UNC 14
Louisville @ Cincinnati: A very dangerous game for the Bearcats, likely quite pleased with themselves after vanquishing Rutgers. Despite their collapse against Kentucky, colossal upset to Syracuse, and general ineptitude against the Utes... Brian Brohm can still put the ball in the air, and the U of L can still put up the points. At 3-3, this is the last chance for Louisville to begin to salvage their season, as a beatdown in Morgantown looms. LOU 37 CIN 34, if CIN can hold down Brohm, their defense is for real and BCS bowl-worthy.
Auburn @ Arkansas: Think War Eagle might recollect the events of last year, if not, still images of Darren McFadden rumbling through the line and smashing the national title hopes of then-#2 Auburn are readily available. The Tigers still must meet LSU at the Rouge, yet their defense will face a supreme challenge in slowing down D-Mac and Felix Jones. Another Heisman-type day for #5, but the lack of consistency from the quarterback position gives this one away, AUB 23 ARK 21
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech: We don't have that much reason to believe in the Aggies, as that ill-fated trip to Coral Gables rendered a few weeks ago, on the other hand, at 5-1 and 2-0 in the Big 12, they must begin to receive serious consideration as a possible division contender. They get Texas at home, leaving only Oklahoma... and Texas Tech for South supremacy. An uneven team, they are precisely the kind most vulnerable to an ambush from "Basketball on Grass," TT 45 A&M 31
Purdue @ Michigan: Both teams had the schedules to make this one a Top 10 battle, yet a combined three embarrassing performances has left this battle wanting. The Boilers boast an offensive juggernaut of 45.0 ppg and four hundred plus... oh, that was before the Ohio State game? Silly me. Michigan's defense has had issues in four of their six contests, which could make this one more interesting than PU's recent history at the Big House suggests. Not, however, if Mike Hart has anything to say about it. MICH 41 PU 20, hope it's worse than that.
To recap...
Mature and focused: LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Auburn, and Michigan
Ripe for the picking: Boston College, Cincinnati, and Texas A@M
We didn't forget USC's game against 'Zona, did we?
Sunday, October 7, 2007
RT2020 Poll: Week of October 7
1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. California (+1)
3. Ohio State (+2)
4. South Carolina (+5)
5. South Florida (-1)
6. Oklahoma (+7)
7. Boston College (+1)
8. Florida (+6)
9. Oregon (+2)
10. West Virginia (+2)
11. Missouri (+7)
12. Southern California (-10)
13. Cincinnati (+7)
14. Illinois (NR)
15. Florida State (NC)
16. Virginia Tech (+1)
17. kentucky (-11)
18. Arizona State (+1)
19. Kansas (NR)
20. Michigan (+1)
21. Wisconsin (-14)
22. Auburn (+2)
23. Maryland (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Georgia (-15)
The New Guys: #14 Illinois, #19 Kansas, #23 Maryland, and (welcome back to the world of the living) #24 Tennessee
The USC Category: #12 (quick, name a quality win... Washington?) USC and UCLA, what a night for Los Angeles! Thank goodness there's an NFL team to take the good citizenry's mind off... oh, nevvvvver mind.
Not as Good as They Thought: #12 USC, #17 kentucky, #21 Wisconsin, #25 Georgia, and #23 Kansas State
DEFINITELY NOT as Good as They Thought: Purdue, Michigan State, and Kansas State
IRRELEVANT TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Texas, Nebraska, Louisville, and, of course, UCLA
APOLOGIES TO: Utah, not ranked because their win over UCLA has been rendered inconseqential
Ramblings...
UNBELIEVABLE!!! Of the three WORST losses by major college football teams in my viewing lifetime, two occurred in the same year and nearly the SAME month! Until Michigan's colossal upending at the hands of App-y State, Oklahoma held the dubious distinction with a 13-16 egg, at home, with ZERO rushing yards, to not only an unranked Oklahoma State team, but one with a LOSING record--needing only a "W" to advance to the Big 12 Championship Game against Colorado. Well, USC just "soared" past both UM and OU, with the most STUNNING loss in my memory.
Consider: Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh CALLED THEM OUT in the preseason, REPEATEDLY! How the Cardinal snuck up on a listless #2 Trojan team is incomprehensible. People like me wondered aloud if USC would put up sixty on these clowns from Palo Alto. Yet, once again, just as I suspected, an inability to run the football--a mere 3.5 y/c at HOME--did USC in, well, that and a charity vis-a-vis FIVE turnovers.
36-game home winning streak: GONE
41-point favorite: LOSS
John David Booty's Heisman campaign: OVER
USC's Mystique: SHATTERED
Michigan feels: MUCH, MUCH BETTER
How is this for wicked irony? Southern California lost perhaps the ONLY "losable" game which would cost them a chance to reach Bourbon Street with one loss. With Cal and Oregon, certainly possible, now? HELL NO! Oklahoma, inferior schedule notwithstanding, is FAR ahead of the Trojans, ditto every unbeaten team and perhaps, dare we suggest it, West Fricking Virginia.
OMG!!! USC!!! OMG!!! USC!!! This just in... NOT as good as the 2005 team.
How about a word for the never-say-die Fighting Harbaughs. A defensive touchdown; a 4-20 conversion with time running out; a 4-G TD strike with seconds to play; a defense that didn't quit after allowing USC a long TD pass to the TE. Talk about a game those players will remember for the rest of their lives. Yes, truly, they shocked the world.
For all of its corruption, for all the unfair powers of the oligarchy, games like USC/Stanford remind all of us why college football is the greatest setting for drama in the whole of American sports. EVERY week, a loss can mean the end of a dream. We have reached ONLY the first weekend of October, and look at the carnage.
I will now take my humble bow for predicting USC would not reach the Not Sugar in N'Orleans... so long as one disregards my August prediction of their game versus Stanford. App-y State, never thought I would say it, but you've been relegated to second place in the quest to determine the Upset of the Century (eight years in).
Elsewhere...
You'll note that the Gators actually went up despite losing their second straight. Absent one interception, Tim Tebow nearly carried the day against the now firmly-entrenched #1 team in America. LSU's defense, though, proved enough of a stone wall, and gutsy calls by Les Miles/poise by Matt Flynn, kept the Bayou Bengals unblemished. A tremendous SEC contest, between two powerhouses. The Tigers showed some heart, down double digits at home, in their furious rally before the frenzied masses. Urban Meyer almost turned the trick again, but now, finally, Florida's string of national championships has ended. LSU travels to Lexington next, where their last two trips, albeit victories, should not inspire smugness.
Playing against only a darkened field, Purdue's Curtis Painter threw a touchdown pass just before the lights officially shut off on the Boilers seaso... err... the Big 10 showdown against Ohio State. The Boilers soon converted the two-point conversion, shockingly, on a play-action pass. At 23-15, they lined up for the onside kick, no word yet as to whether they recovered.
How about Ohio State's defense? Are we starting to believe now? Yes, memories of allowing eighty points in their last two contests to close 2006 are becoming quite distant. Finally, a word (re: rant) about Purdue: I hope you celebrated that meaningless garbage TD with 0:11 to go. You were just exposed as a fraud to a nationwide television audience, but, no, you had to call a timeout and then later couldn't even RUN it in from the two, because, well, you had FOUR total rushing yards to that point. OSU even gave you three turnovers and your high-powered spread offense didn't do squat.
Curtis Painter, I hope you're happy to throw your nineteenth TD pass of the year--it was as fraudulent as your football team's ranking. I usually don't complain about stuff like that, but when not even the recovery of an onside kick would make overtime or a win possible, scoring so late truly makes your team look small. The best example is UM from 2005 against the Bucks, they did score late on a prevent defense, yet HAD they recovered the kick, well, they probably would've won or at least forced OT. Purdue had NO chance and merely padded their irrelevant statistics. Classless, Boilermakers, classless. Great job, Tress. I wouldn't have even grasped Joe Tiller's hand at the end of this one, watch yourself in Columbus next year, poseurs.
I almost never say this, but... ATTENTION MICHIGAN: F___ them up in your tilt.
This just in... Cincinnati is for real, Rutgers is clearly not, and it's the Bearcats and the Bulls (WTF?) for Big East supremacy. West Virginia rebounded nicely, but they're not in the conversation just yet.
Phil Fulmer, way to circle the wagons. Georgie, what the hell happened? You've now beaten an overrated Alabama team, lost at home to the surging 'Cocks, and been blasted by one of the most defensively-challenged Vol teams of the modern era. Fortunately, I now think UK will have a shot to beat you between the hedges.
C'mon, admit it, you had Missouri as the last unbeaten Big 12 team in early October, right? Ahem, Nebraska felt so good about its latest result from their team that the program awarded Coach Bill Callahan another extension, presumably for allowing over 300 yards on the ground in Lincoln to a USC team that FAILED to crack 100 AT HOME against STANFORD!
RAPIDLY CONCEIVED HEISMAN BALLOT: Tebow, Hart, Jackson, McFadden, and Woodson
2. California (+1)
3. Ohio State (+2)
4. South Carolina (+5)
5. South Florida (-1)
6. Oklahoma (+7)
7. Boston College (+1)
8. Florida (+6)
9. Oregon (+2)
10. West Virginia (+2)
11. Missouri (+7)
12. Southern California (-10)
13. Cincinnati (+7)
14. Illinois (NR)
15. Florida State (NC)
16. Virginia Tech (+1)
17. kentucky (-11)
18. Arizona State (+1)
19. Kansas (NR)
20. Michigan (+1)
21. Wisconsin (-14)
22. Auburn (+2)
23. Maryland (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Georgia (-15)
The New Guys: #14 Illinois, #19 Kansas, #23 Maryland, and (welcome back to the world of the living) #24 Tennessee
The USC Category: #12 (quick, name a quality win... Washington?) USC and UCLA, what a night for Los Angeles! Thank goodness there's an NFL team to take the good citizenry's mind off... oh, nevvvvver mind.
Not as Good as They Thought: #12 USC, #17 kentucky, #21 Wisconsin, #25 Georgia, and #23 Kansas State
DEFINITELY NOT as Good as They Thought: Purdue, Michigan State, and Kansas State
IRRELEVANT TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Texas, Nebraska, Louisville, and, of course, UCLA
APOLOGIES TO: Utah, not ranked because their win over UCLA has been rendered inconseqential
Ramblings...
UNBELIEVABLE!!! Of the three WORST losses by major college football teams in my viewing lifetime, two occurred in the same year and nearly the SAME month! Until Michigan's colossal upending at the hands of App-y State, Oklahoma held the dubious distinction with a 13-16 egg, at home, with ZERO rushing yards, to not only an unranked Oklahoma State team, but one with a LOSING record--needing only a "W" to advance to the Big 12 Championship Game against Colorado. Well, USC just "soared" past both UM and OU, with the most STUNNING loss in my memory.
Consider: Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh CALLED THEM OUT in the preseason, REPEATEDLY! How the Cardinal snuck up on a listless #2 Trojan team is incomprehensible. People like me wondered aloud if USC would put up sixty on these clowns from Palo Alto. Yet, once again, just as I suspected, an inability to run the football--a mere 3.5 y/c at HOME--did USC in, well, that and a charity vis-a-vis FIVE turnovers.
36-game home winning streak: GONE
41-point favorite: LOSS
John David Booty's Heisman campaign: OVER
USC's Mystique: SHATTERED
Michigan feels: MUCH, MUCH BETTER
How is this for wicked irony? Southern California lost perhaps the ONLY "losable" game which would cost them a chance to reach Bourbon Street with one loss. With Cal and Oregon, certainly possible, now? HELL NO! Oklahoma, inferior schedule notwithstanding, is FAR ahead of the Trojans, ditto every unbeaten team and perhaps, dare we suggest it, West Fricking Virginia.
OMG!!! USC!!! OMG!!! USC!!! This just in... NOT as good as the 2005 team.
How about a word for the never-say-die Fighting Harbaughs. A defensive touchdown; a 4-20 conversion with time running out; a 4-G TD strike with seconds to play; a defense that didn't quit after allowing USC a long TD pass to the TE. Talk about a game those players will remember for the rest of their lives. Yes, truly, they shocked the world.
For all of its corruption, for all the unfair powers of the oligarchy, games like USC/Stanford remind all of us why college football is the greatest setting for drama in the whole of American sports. EVERY week, a loss can mean the end of a dream. We have reached ONLY the first weekend of October, and look at the carnage.
I will now take my humble bow for predicting USC would not reach the Not Sugar in N'Orleans... so long as one disregards my August prediction of their game versus Stanford. App-y State, never thought I would say it, but you've been relegated to second place in the quest to determine the Upset of the Century (eight years in).
Elsewhere...
You'll note that the Gators actually went up despite losing their second straight. Absent one interception, Tim Tebow nearly carried the day against the now firmly-entrenched #1 team in America. LSU's defense, though, proved enough of a stone wall, and gutsy calls by Les Miles/poise by Matt Flynn, kept the Bayou Bengals unblemished. A tremendous SEC contest, between two powerhouses. The Tigers showed some heart, down double digits at home, in their furious rally before the frenzied masses. Urban Meyer almost turned the trick again, but now, finally, Florida's string of national championships has ended. LSU travels to Lexington next, where their last two trips, albeit victories, should not inspire smugness.
Playing against only a darkened field, Purdue's Curtis Painter threw a touchdown pass just before the lights officially shut off on the Boilers seaso... err... the Big 10 showdown against Ohio State. The Boilers soon converted the two-point conversion, shockingly, on a play-action pass. At 23-15, they lined up for the onside kick, no word yet as to whether they recovered.
How about Ohio State's defense? Are we starting to believe now? Yes, memories of allowing eighty points in their last two contests to close 2006 are becoming quite distant. Finally, a word (re: rant) about Purdue: I hope you celebrated that meaningless garbage TD with 0:11 to go. You were just exposed as a fraud to a nationwide television audience, but, no, you had to call a timeout and then later couldn't even RUN it in from the two, because, well, you had FOUR total rushing yards to that point. OSU even gave you three turnovers and your high-powered spread offense didn't do squat.
Curtis Painter, I hope you're happy to throw your nineteenth TD pass of the year--it was as fraudulent as your football team's ranking. I usually don't complain about stuff like that, but when not even the recovery of an onside kick would make overtime or a win possible, scoring so late truly makes your team look small. The best example is UM from 2005 against the Bucks, they did score late on a prevent defense, yet HAD they recovered the kick, well, they probably would've won or at least forced OT. Purdue had NO chance and merely padded their irrelevant statistics. Classless, Boilermakers, classless. Great job, Tress. I wouldn't have even grasped Joe Tiller's hand at the end of this one, watch yourself in Columbus next year, poseurs.
I almost never say this, but... ATTENTION MICHIGAN: F___ them up in your tilt.
This just in... Cincinnati is for real, Rutgers is clearly not, and it's the Bearcats and the Bulls (WTF?) for Big East supremacy. West Virginia rebounded nicely, but they're not in the conversation just yet.
Phil Fulmer, way to circle the wagons. Georgie, what the hell happened? You've now beaten an overrated Alabama team, lost at home to the surging 'Cocks, and been blasted by one of the most defensively-challenged Vol teams of the modern era. Fortunately, I now think UK will have a shot to beat you between the hedges.
C'mon, admit it, you had Missouri as the last unbeaten Big 12 team in early October, right? Ahem, Nebraska felt so good about its latest result from their team that the program awarded Coach Bill Callahan another extension, presumably for allowing over 300 yards on the ground in Lincoln to a USC team that FAILED to crack 100 AT HOME against STANFORD!
RAPIDLY CONCEIVED HEISMAN BALLOT: Tebow, Hart, Jackson, McFadden, and Woodson
Thursday, October 4, 2007
So Much For Our Happy Ending
Congrats to the Gamecocks, and yes, the Ole Ball Coach.
The offense lost the game. Andre' Woodson lost his Heisman glow and will now need to orchestrate an upset over the best team in all the land to recapture it. Big-game Rich Brooks has returned. Kudos, though, to the Big Blue defense that kept SoCaro from establishing a monster ground attack.
Winning on the road at night in the SEC is the most difficult thing to do in college football, and the task is compounded when the home team feels disrespected. Yes, people had forgotten about South Carolina in the wake of LSU's field goal trickeration. Well, they now control the SEC East, not Florida, and not Kentucky. The Gators come to Columbia too, where Spurrier got them in 2005, which means an SEC Championship Game berth is quite likely for the man who hath never lost to UK.
5-1 is still a very good start, but the team has to avoid a tailspin. Prevailing in on their next two home games is perhaps a must if they want to avoid, after reaching such lofty status, a 5-3 mark and a return to the Music City Bowl.
Hopefully the Bayou Bengals destroy Florida and thus come in to Commonwealth fat and happy, also remembering the 49-0 thrashing they gave Woodson and Co. last year at the Rouge.
The offense lost the game. Andre' Woodson lost his Heisman glow and will now need to orchestrate an upset over the best team in all the land to recapture it. Big-game Rich Brooks has returned. Kudos, though, to the Big Blue defense that kept SoCaro from establishing a monster ground attack.
Winning on the road at night in the SEC is the most difficult thing to do in college football, and the task is compounded when the home team feels disrespected. Yes, people had forgotten about South Carolina in the wake of LSU's field goal trickeration. Well, they now control the SEC East, not Florida, and not Kentucky. The Gators come to Columbia too, where Spurrier got them in 2005, which means an SEC Championship Game berth is quite likely for the man who hath never lost to UK.
5-1 is still a very good start, but the team has to avoid a tailspin. Prevailing in on their next two home games is perhaps a must if they want to avoid, after reaching such lofty status, a 5-3 mark and a return to the Music City Bowl.
Hopefully the Bayou Bengals destroy Florida and thus come in to Commonwealth fat and happy, also remembering the 49-0 thrashing they gave Woodson and Co. last year at the Rouge.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Week 6 Preview: Diminished Weekend
KENTUCKY!!! @ South Carolina: So many times, the 'Cats have come so close to beating this team, usually at Commonwealth. A "W" here means first place in the high-powered SEC East, with home games against Florida and Tennessee to come. Woodson finally threw a pick last week, but still fired a career-high five TD passes. Unfortunately, the defensive talent skies upward this Thursday night in Columbia. On the plus side, the 'Cocks don't boast a top SEC offense. Can UK, once more, outscore a ranked opponent on the road? I say, yes. UK 34 SoCaro 27
Florida @ Louisiana State: No longer #3 @ #2. I thought I had this game figured out last week: LSU would control FLA's high-scoring attack, Flynn would make enough plays, and the Gators unbeaten streak would end at the Rouge. Alas, Auburn got there first. Why does this matter? Well, entering last weekend, Florida did NOT have to win this game in order to compete for the national championship; they've could've won the SEC East and beaten LSU in a rematch for the conference title. Now, this is a must win for the until-the-AUB game best coach in the country. Can the Gators count on six turnovers this time? Uh, no. LSU 30 FLA 14
Ohio State @ Purdue: Of all the projected "Separation Saturday" matchups, this is the only one to materialize with both squads still without a blemish on their records. The Buckeyes and Boilermakers have cruised early, yet scheduling has played a role. PUR has beaten no one of consequence, whilst OSU is helped by a respectable Washington team that stayed with USC for four quarters. The matchup is clearly Ohio State's defense versus a turn-back-the-clock (as in 2000 or early 2004) Purdue offense. Joe Tiller has never had much luck in Columbus, yet has won two of the last three in West Lafayette, and OSU needed a 4-1 TD pass in the closing seconds to win here in 2002. The questions: Is Boeckman ready? Can OSU's defense force turnovers? Yes and yes. OSU 24 PUR 21 (OT)
Wisconsin @ Illinois: All of a sudden, a much more intriguing game. The Illini stymied Penn State late and ended the Nittany Lion's conference title hopes. They are young but fast. WIS earned some points for holding off a game Spartan team last week, yet, they're vulnerable. Illinois has the defense to thwart Bucky's ground attack and force Tyler Donovan to win the game. Can he? Does Illinois move to (gasp) 3-0 and stay in first place? Not quite. WIS 17 ILL 13
Oklahoma v. Texas: Yawn. Who cares about this game now? It's not even for first place in the Big 12 South. Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford looked atrocious last weekend, but the Sooners appear to be a much better team than the Longhorns. OU, in the words of one columnist, stopped playing after fifty minutes in Boulder, whereas Texas broke down on special teams and turned the ball over at will. Bradford will bounce back, McCoy, err, well... OU 49 TX 10
Virginia Tech @ Clemson: The Tigers lost a lot of credibility in their 3-13 kicking meltdown loss in Atlanta. The weak ACC, sans BC (maybe), remains up for grabs, though. Clemson is a very good home team and the Hokies struggled to get past UNC last Saturday. Nonetheless, VT is a better team and Frank Beamer's crew will make the natives in Death Valley a bit more restless. VT 27 CLEM 20
Nebraska @ Missouri: For years, the black helmets have teased. For years, they've been exposed. As ugly as the Huskers have looked in the last few weeks, if they win in Columbia, they take a big step in claiming the Big 12 North. On the other hand, with COL and K-ST manning up last week, that division suddenly seems a trifle stronger. Look for a big day for Sam Keller as NEB gets back on (something of a) track, rolling to victory. NEB 45 MIZZ 23
Does this mean you have to rank them in the next poll?--ed No comment.
Cincinnati @ Rutgers: Are the Bearcats for real? Did Ohio State pick a good year to avoid the rompers from the 'Nati? The answer to the second one is yes. The first? Dominance looks good, but have they played anyone? Rutgers hasn't either, yet they were felled by the Terps--no the 2001 Orange Bowl participants didn't sneak back into Piscataway--when the Big East seemed theirs for the taking. RUT hosts WVA and LOU doesn't scare anyone, so a win here could lead them to a BCS game... where they'd get housed. RUT 23 CIN 20
Notre Dame @ UCLA: (Giggling) You may recall the Brady Quinn-led comeback to beat the Bruins in South Bend last year. You may also know that Quinn now totes a clipboard for the 2-2 Cleveland Browns--two more wins than the Irish currently possess. As ever, the second LA team remains an enigma: they looked great in three games and hideous in one. Seriously, 20 returning starters and a 6-44 loss in Salt Lake City, and not to Meyer's 2004 team??? Questions remain: will ND be favored against the Dookies later this year, and will USC go for 70? UCLA 28 ND 19
Heisman opportunity:
Andre' Woodson, UK: 275 yards pass, 2 TDs, 40 yards rush, TD
Tim Tebow, FLA: 250 yards pass, TD, 70 yards rush
A possibility exists that both top SEC signal-callers will exit the race after next weekend, which would boost the chances of both Mike Hart and Darren McFadden. H20 will get a little boost from breaking UM's all time rushing record. Yet, if both win, a showdown looms in Lexington this month.
Florida @ Louisiana State: No longer #3 @ #2. I thought I had this game figured out last week: LSU would control FLA's high-scoring attack, Flynn would make enough plays, and the Gators unbeaten streak would end at the Rouge. Alas, Auburn got there first. Why does this matter? Well, entering last weekend, Florida did NOT have to win this game in order to compete for the national championship; they've could've won the SEC East and beaten LSU in a rematch for the conference title. Now, this is a must win for the until-the-AUB game best coach in the country. Can the Gators count on six turnovers this time? Uh, no. LSU 30 FLA 14
Ohio State @ Purdue: Of all the projected "Separation Saturday" matchups, this is the only one to materialize with both squads still without a blemish on their records. The Buckeyes and Boilermakers have cruised early, yet scheduling has played a role. PUR has beaten no one of consequence, whilst OSU is helped by a respectable Washington team that stayed with USC for four quarters. The matchup is clearly Ohio State's defense versus a turn-back-the-clock (as in 2000 or early 2004) Purdue offense. Joe Tiller has never had much luck in Columbus, yet has won two of the last three in West Lafayette, and OSU needed a 4-1 TD pass in the closing seconds to win here in 2002. The questions: Is Boeckman ready? Can OSU's defense force turnovers? Yes and yes. OSU 24 PUR 21 (OT)
Wisconsin @ Illinois: All of a sudden, a much more intriguing game. The Illini stymied Penn State late and ended the Nittany Lion's conference title hopes. They are young but fast. WIS earned some points for holding off a game Spartan team last week, yet, they're vulnerable. Illinois has the defense to thwart Bucky's ground attack and force Tyler Donovan to win the game. Can he? Does Illinois move to (gasp) 3-0 and stay in first place? Not quite. WIS 17 ILL 13
Oklahoma v. Texas: Yawn. Who cares about this game now? It's not even for first place in the Big 12 South. Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford looked atrocious last weekend, but the Sooners appear to be a much better team than the Longhorns. OU, in the words of one columnist, stopped playing after fifty minutes in Boulder, whereas Texas broke down on special teams and turned the ball over at will. Bradford will bounce back, McCoy, err, well... OU 49 TX 10
Virginia Tech @ Clemson: The Tigers lost a lot of credibility in their 3-13 kicking meltdown loss in Atlanta. The weak ACC, sans BC (maybe), remains up for grabs, though. Clemson is a very good home team and the Hokies struggled to get past UNC last Saturday. Nonetheless, VT is a better team and Frank Beamer's crew will make the natives in Death Valley a bit more restless. VT 27 CLEM 20
Nebraska @ Missouri: For years, the black helmets have teased. For years, they've been exposed. As ugly as the Huskers have looked in the last few weeks, if they win in Columbia, they take a big step in claiming the Big 12 North. On the other hand, with COL and K-ST manning up last week, that division suddenly seems a trifle stronger. Look for a big day for Sam Keller as NEB gets back on (something of a) track, rolling to victory. NEB 45 MIZZ 23
Does this mean you have to rank them in the next poll?--ed No comment.
Cincinnati @ Rutgers: Are the Bearcats for real? Did Ohio State pick a good year to avoid the rompers from the 'Nati? The answer to the second one is yes. The first? Dominance looks good, but have they played anyone? Rutgers hasn't either, yet they were felled by the Terps--no the 2001 Orange Bowl participants didn't sneak back into Piscataway--when the Big East seemed theirs for the taking. RUT hosts WVA and LOU doesn't scare anyone, so a win here could lead them to a BCS game... where they'd get housed. RUT 23 CIN 20
Notre Dame @ UCLA: (Giggling) You may recall the Brady Quinn-led comeback to beat the Bruins in South Bend last year. You may also know that Quinn now totes a clipboard for the 2-2 Cleveland Browns--two more wins than the Irish currently possess. As ever, the second LA team remains an enigma: they looked great in three games and hideous in one. Seriously, 20 returning starters and a 6-44 loss in Salt Lake City, and not to Meyer's 2004 team??? Questions remain: will ND be favored against the Dookies later this year, and will USC go for 70? UCLA 28 ND 19
Heisman opportunity:
Andre' Woodson, UK: 275 yards pass, 2 TDs, 40 yards rush, TD
Tim Tebow, FLA: 250 yards pass, TD, 70 yards rush
A possibility exists that both top SEC signal-callers will exit the race after next weekend, which would boost the chances of both Mike Hart and Darren McFadden. H20 will get a little boost from breaking UM's all time rushing record. Yet, if both win, a showdown looms in Lexington this month.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)