Gridiron Cats

LSU is Your National Champion

2008-01-08T00:59:00.000-08:00

1. Louisiana State (+4)
2. Georgia (-1)
3. Southern California (+1)
4. Missouri (+8)
5. West Virginia (+11)
6. Kansas (+4)
7. Auburn (+4)
8. Oklahoma (-5)
9. Tennessee (+4)
10. Virginia Tech (-4)
11. Ohio State (-9)
12. Michigan (+5)
13. Florida (-6)
14. Texas (NR)
15. Cincinnati (-9)
16. Illinois (-8)
17. Arizona State (-8)
18. Brigham Young (+1)
19. Boston College (+3)
20. Oregon (NR)
21. Oregon State (NR)
22. Penn State (+3)
23. Mississippi State (NR)
24. Clemson (-4)
25. Texas Tech (NR)

Just as I said way back when, the Bayou Bengals get it done! Their thirty-one point run was the difference, coupled with two killer OSU plays (the dropped TD pass and the roughing the punter), which obscured a banner night for Beanie Wells. Despite a 10-0 lead, Ohio State played an atrocious second quarter that bled a bit too far into the third. Even without their All-America safety, LSU's defense, whilst bending a bit, garnered sacks at key times and did not muff INT opportunities.

I offered that the SEC champs needed a two-touchdown victory to merit the title, and they got it.

You Can Argue Against Ohio State...

2008-01-05T12:45:00.000-08:00

but can you truly argue for anyone else?

Some have complained quietly and not-so quietly that Ohio State does not deserve to take the field in Monday's BCS Championship Game in N'Orleans. Colin Cowherd, an interesting host on ESPN Radio, made a good point about how the system loses when teams get rewarded for playing inferior competition. So, let's get a few things out of the way.

1) OSU played a Division I-AA or subdivision school in the form of Youngstown State, inexcusable, no doubt about it, which is why this game doesn't count in the BCS.

2) The Buckeyes toughest non-conference game, in a slate that included Akron, was a mid-afternoon tilt in Seattle, a team that could not defeat Hawaii and finished well off the pace in the Pac-10. Here is the dirty little secret: few in Columbus thought 2007 was a title-aspiring year, knowing that Troy Smith and others were on the way out, and, importantly, knowing odd-years mean trips to State College and Ann Arbor. Yes, I can fall under the label of "Buckeye homer" but I maintain you must grade OSU's schedule differently in odd-numbered years.

3) Ohio State lost AT HOME to a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog and second-place team in their conference that failed to defeat a weak Iowa team earlier in the year. It was only the self-destructive qualities of the Illini against Michigan that cost the Zookers a share of the conference crown.

In almost any other year, save perhaps 1990, this resume is nowhere near good enough to play for a title. Consider that in 2002 the Bucks defeated a quality opponent in Texas Tech, the co-Pac 10 champion (Wazzu State), in addition to their full Big 10 slate, net, 13-0. Last year they beat defending national champion Texas in Austin, plus #2 Michigan to close the season, net, 12-0. Ok, 2007 clearly doesn't measure up, and the home loss reeks of 1998, so we have made that clear. On the other hand?

In ascending order of merit, with final verdict*:

HAWAII (pre-Sugar Bowl embarrassment): Yes, Michigan could've played them, and yes, they head to Gainesville next season, so what. Their second-best win of the year was by seven, at home, to a less-healthy Washington team that Ohio State beat by nineteen in the Northwest. Are you going to tell me Boise State, again at home, is a better win than Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State? Did anyone play an easier schedule? ANYONE? If you pick this undefeated team you're also buying Tulane '98 over Florida State or even Boise State '06 over Florida.

VERDICT: Hell no. The question is whether the Rainbow Warriors even deserved a Top 25 ranking.

KANSAS (pre-Orange Bowl win): When a team played a significantly weaker strength of schedule than Ohio State, well, that doesn't say much for its chances. No Oklahoma, no Texas. They did beat Colorado in Boulder, but in their ONE huge game of the season they got smacked around by Missouri, and that was closer to a home game than a roadie. It was a better loss than OSU's, but the Buckeyes wins over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are better than KU's three best regular season wins.

VERDICT: Beat the teams it should, lost to the one it could have beat, did not schedule an OOC game even on the level of OSU/WSH, a firm no.

WEST VIRGINIA (pre-Fiesta Bowl domination): Let's begin by saying their non-conference schedule did include a game against the SEC. Good. Yet, the disappearance of South Florida from the national picture really hurts them here, the Bulls didn't even come close to the conference crown after reaching #2 in the polls at one point. And after a severe thrashing of UCONN the week prior, a 9-13 "L" at the hands of a non-bowl Pittsburgh team, AT HOME, requires a word stronger than "choke" and I have none for the occasion. Once again, two losses, and the last one much worse than Ohio State's and Oklahoma's to Colorado.

VERDICT: No team since Oklahoma '01 soiled themselves at a more inopportune time and I don't care if Patrick White had to leave the game, they only needed ONE MORE TOUCHDOWN!!!, an easy no.

VIRGINIA TECH (pre-Orange Bowl loss): Really? You're telling me the ACC is that much rougher than the Big 10, honestly? And do teams that lose 7-45, even if on the road to the eventual #2, deserve title shots? Ohio State lost by seven, in a game influenced by a terrible non-fumble in the first quarter, and never felt threatened deep into the fourth in any of their other games. Furthermore, the Hokies choked at home against Matt Ryan and the Golden Eagles, or they would have likely earned a rematch against LSU.

VERDICT: No, but credit to playing LSU at Tiger Stadium, yet you need to do better than a thirty-eight point loss, and while this season you could lose at home, to do so AND get blown out of the road, no, irrespective of the computers.

OKLAHOMA (pre-Fiesta Bowl calamity): I love the two wins over Missouri, even before the Tigers shredded Arkansas, Texas wasn't terrible this year either. On the other hand, while we can paper over the loss in Lubbock due to Sam Bradford's concussion (maybe), what do we say of the debacle in Boulder? Did you see Colorado in a bowl game this season? This also wasn't an out of conference tilt, but a non-division game, played against a struggling program. Bottom line: a worse loss than OSU's to Illinois and the extra loss kills their candidacy.

VERDICT: Close, but no. Two losses, neither to a team playing in a major bowl game is just not going to get it done, 24-7 in Boulder, boys, 24-7 in Boulder.

MISSOURI (pre-Cotton Bowl triumph): I love the SEC and Big 10 OOC tilts, especially since the Big 10 team DID beat Ohio State. Two losses stings but both were to OU--and they beat Kansas on neutral/unfriendly ground. I guess there is one way to answer this, if the Bucks drew the Sooners in Norman and in San Antonio, could they win either game? The odds are reasonable, but the late loss (decisively too) is the difference.

VERDICT: Very close, but no. Excellent resume, just needed a split with OU and couldn't get it.

GEORGIA (pre-Sugar Bowl walloping): I had them #1 before their bowl game and they didn't disappoint, perhaps the hottest team in America and the only one to convincingly defeat Florida. Still, South Carolina, as noted before in this space, did them no favors late in the year, and the atrocious performance in Knoxville killed their title hopes. A win over the Vols would have drawn them LSU and possibly given them another huge win. Also, despite the powerful SEC, no nice OOC win (Tempe comes next autumn), and no division title.

VERDICT: Toss-up, would they beat OSU? Yes. Does that erase the stigma of a 0-35 deficit to Tennessee and a home loss to a conference foe that collapsed? Georgia Tech fell away too, give me the Bucks, no for the Dawgs.

USC (pre-Rose Bowl smashing): Let's make one thing clear, if they beat Stanford, no one has a problem with their title game presence, only question is whether OSU or LSU plays them. The loss to Oregon in Eugene to a healthy Dennis Dixon, once a Heisman frontrunner, is better than any of the other losses in consideration. Although Cal disappeared, the Pac-10 still had a good year, and the Trojans went 5-1 on the road to include the always rowdy Sun Devil Stadium. Notre Dame didn't help them, though. You have to love Coach Pete Carroll's fearlessness (okay, maybe not in the case of Idaho--but look at 2008) and the six road games. The enormous question: does a team that would likely take Ohio State still deserve to jump them with a FORTY-POINT FAVORED HOME LOSS TO A NON-BOWL TEAM A WEEK PRIOR TO PLAYING ANOTHER NON-BOWL TEAM? In other words, Michigan may have looked ahead to Oregon whilst playing Appy State, what was Troy's excuse???

VERDICT: Stanford beat a deflated Cal, yet did nothing else the rest of the year, to include losing to an Irish team that fell AT HOME to Air Force and (gasp) Navy. I don't care if John David Booty's finger or injuries and inexperience permitted a BACK-UP QB to hit multiple fourth-down passes to end it 24-23, Cardinal--in the COLISEUM!!! I'm sorry, you are a bona fide dynasty, but the Stanford loss coupled with a tough one at Autzen doesn't give you much of an argument, even if a better one than anyone else.

Conclusions...

Hawaii, Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma clearly lose the argument, at least to my mind. Missouri, Georgia, and USC do have a case, but for reasons aforementioned it is not a particularly good one, even for the latter two schools. In fact, USC '02 had a better argument against OSU '02, due to two close road losses to two very good teams in a vicious schedule to include a good Notre Dame team, then in the present.

Everyone had holes this year, no major school went undefeated and no major school with one-loss had a better track-record than Ohio State. Are some two loss schools better? Yes, perhaps one, perhaps three, perhaps five, did ANY of them clearly earn the bid over the Bucks?

The fair-minded would say, no. Put simply, Ohio State could not have chosen a better year to lose a home game, not in the past and realistically not in the future. Virginia Tech, Georgia, and USC all lost home games plus a road game. It was the most remarkable year at the top, in terms of chaos, we are likely to ever see. But who knows, truly, what 2008 will bring?

*LSU was not considered because folks view them as the de facto #1 team by way of their favored status over Ohio State and because they only rank below the Buckeyes because they lost their second game later, and again in triple overtime, even if AT HOME.

Dawgs Steamroll Brennan, Warriors

2008-01-02T06:58:00.000-08:00

Memo to the BCS: just because a team finishes undefeated does not mean they warrant a glitzy bowl selection, particularly against the best team in the country, apologies to USC. I still don't like the Dawgs Road to Miami next year, but unless Florida's defense matures over the summer (likely) they have a better shot than I thought last week. Knowshon Moreno is more than ready to assume D-Mac's throne as the SEC's best running back and if Matthew Stafford can survive some tough road games (specifically, Columbia and Tempe), at minimum Goarja will draw a return trip to the Sugar Bowl.

Enough, however, of this nonsense that UGA deserved to play in the Not Sugar. Their loss at the hands of a mediocre Tennessee bunch proved embarrassing and South Carolina's collapse didn't say much about the early season Dawgs. If major college football had a playoff, then yes Mark Richt's team would deserve a high seed. But we do not, which means schools must not lose to inferior teams and expect a shot at the crystal football.

The question for voters is whether USC or Georgia will finish #2. The Trojans beat a much-better Illinois team (Zooker's guys were in the game for a time, until the turnovers that never materialized in Columbus began sprouting all over the USC 15-yard line) with far more pure talent (Rashard Mendenhall, please hire an agent). Hawaii escaped several weak teams earlier this season and relied heavily upon a potential NFL quarterback to keep them afloat. Problem is, as Buckeye fans know all too well, the game is won and lost up front.

Georgia's defense is nasty, but their inability to handle the Volunteers offense in Knoxville killed their dream of winning the school's first national title since 1980. Silver lining: they remain in line to capture the first ever RT2020 championship, needing only an LSU win under two touchdowns to lay claim.

Thoughts on an 8-5 Finish

2008-01-01T01:54:00.000-08:00

As summer crept to a close, I projected 6-6, which means that this team slightly exceeded my expectations, thanks largely to inspired quarterback play from #3. Once again, to no one's surprise the coaching limitations of Rich Brooks, especially in Columbia, prevented a real chance at the school's first ten-win season since 1977. After defeating then-#1 LSU in a game to remember in Lexington, the defense received a shredding at the hands of Tim Tebow and did not give a slow-starting Woodson enough time to dig the Cats out of the hole.

Yes, the SEC is a vicious conference, but consecutive 8-5 finishes should never gain acceptance as the pinnacle of a university's achievement, unless at a genuine student-athlete locale such as Vanderbilt. With the departure of Woodson to the NFL, where will Coach Brooks, assuming he is not wooed by the Baltimore Ravens, find the players and schemes to avoid a return to the sad-sack campaigns of 2004 and 2005?

Color me skeptical, though, I would prove satisfied with another 8-5 year (and bowl win against a decimated opponent) if it came with the development of a young QB who would hopefully have the Wildcats in contention (ha!) for 2009.

Player of the Year: Not close, despite some progress at RB and WR, it was Woodson's team and he played as well as most not from Columbia (Missouri, this time) and Gainesville.

Moment of the Year: The TD pass in the waning moments to stun Louisville and send the post-Petrino Cards into a well-deserved tail spin.

Egg of the Year: The uninspired loss to Syl Croom's good Mississippi State team, because it was at home and ended any possibility to make the dream game in Atlanta.

Predictable losses: v. FLA, @ UGA

Rich Brooks: C-, the fortunate wins over Louisville and Louisiana State would make a lower ranking unsightly, nonetheless, this was his best team since the 1994 Oregon Ducks, and finishing with the same record as last year does not merit the same approval as last year with the same personnel. Where was the improvement? Florida had to break in a new defense, Tennessee remains mired in conference mediocrity, yet UK fell to both at home, failing to force a Tebow turnover and fouling up things in OT in the finale.

Andre' Woodson finished exceptionally strong against a good but thinned-down Florida State defense, and, per usual, the defense could not stop the opponent on the ground. Next year does not bode well. Without even looking at the schedule, only knowing roadies to FLA and TEN plus UGA's return to the Commonwealth (not to mention a reasonably improved LOU team and another SoCaro escape in Lexington), 4-8 is quite likely. It is likelier to turn out worse than that.

If that occurs, or if the last five games don't produce those four wins, then Mitch Barnhardt has to look elsewhere, and, say, hire a coach with a WINNING RECORD!!! I vote for Ron Engish, former defensive coordinator at the University of Michigan, and, yes, a minority candidate. We did it in basketball, why not football? The job of the next coach is to at least mitigate the ferocious damage done week after week in the trenches, pretty much ever since DeWayne Robertson took his talent to the NFL.

Best of luck to the great Andre' Woodson, a sure-fire first day selection at this point, and possibly first round material if he can impress at the combine. I think he will start some games at the next level.

And Your 2008 National Champs Are...

2007-12-20T10:43:00.000-08:00

Last year, on a now-defunct blog, I boldly predicted, before their dismantling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, the 2007 national champion: LSU. I picked the Bayou Bengals irrespective of projected first-round draft choice losses to include their star quarterback due to a perceived friendly schedule buttressed by a virtual home-game in the BCS Championship.

Looking pretty good right about now. Yes, it took some resistance to the massive, heavily-overblown hype emanating from Los Angeles, but I stuck to my guns, and even predicted a two-loss season for the USC Trojans. Also, correct. Obviously, I didn't foresee two losses for the Tigers, particularly the last one, at home, to Arkansas, but this season proved the one for such a resume. Now, for all my USC criticism, I actually like them quite a bit next season, provided they beat the Buckeyes in a huge September game at the Coliseum.

All of the rough roadies (Eugene, Tempe) are home games and if Notre Dame has improved at all, that one is also in Los Angeles. Arizona State might improve some more, Oregon is headed for a fall, NO ONE should trust California, Washington will get better, Oregon State never starts out quickly enough, and it's very hard to see another 8-1 team in the Pac-10. Stanford? Jim Harbaugh's team will likely make strides too, but if they finish 6-3 in conference play, well, he should win Coach of the Year honors.

Mark Sanchez, now a little older (presumably, he stays heathly) emerges as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate to battle Ohio State's Chris Wells and of course the defending champion from Gainesville, plus the prodigious depth and newfound experience of their wide receivers. I would expect the defense, whilst losing some key players, to continue to have little trouble in conference play and likely with Todd Boeckman (unless the latter comes up big in the Not Sugar).

Their Road to the Not Orange (along with RT2020 spread):

@ Virginia (-13)
v. Ohio State (-9)
@ Oregon State (-5)
v. Oregon (-18)
v. Arizona State (-14)
@ Washington State (-20)
@ Arizona (-14)
v. Washington (-4)
v. California (-21)
@ Stanford (-20)
v. Notre Dame (-24)
@ UCLA (-13)

A solid favorite in every matchup, pending, once again, the result of Ohio State's game against LSU. If the Buckeyes win, that game in LA is a toss up, if not slightly more than a touchdown. I actually think U-Dub, with Locker a year older, could pose the most significant threat, particularly because USC might overlook them if California is off to a nice start. Their first three tilts, however, are brutal. USC's last trip to Corvallis ended with a loss, but I can easily see the Trojans still winning comfortably. Once more, six road clashes, which we should commend, but not as unruly as 2007 (even if NEB and ND fell on their faces). After smashing Illinois, they will have a haunting memory of the Stanford game that cost them a chance to beat Ohio State... unless of course all the media outlets again go gaga over this team and project them to beat 1995 Nebraska.

Twelve-and-oh, mark it down. So, who will they play? A rematch with Ohio State is not out of the question (the Bucks host both Penn State and Michigan), if the game is close and the Big 10 fields at least one other ten-win team. I don't think so, however, as I think the other slot to the Orange is coming out of the SEC (of course).

And that team is the one with the best player and the best coach in America.

The Gator Slate:

v. Hawaii (-27)
v. Miami (-30)
@ Tennessee (-10)
v. Ole Miss (-31)
@ Arkansas (-24)
v. LSU (-13)
v. Kentucky (-30)
n. Georgia (-3)
@ Vanderbilt (-21)
v. South Carolina (-7)
v. Citadel (-45)
@ Florida State (-27)
n. Auburn (-17, projected SEC West opponent in Atlanta)

Hurrah, no Auburn! And just four road games. The early test in Knoxville should tell the tale. Tennessee, utterly trashed by #15 in 2007, will show some pride next season--but I'm not persuaded that the Vols, ten years removed from their last conference championship, are good enough to beat Florida. The Gators will have a more experienced defense, a better Percy Harvin, and perhaps (finally) a true running back to take some pressure off Tebow. Sans Colt Brennan, even a Rainbow Warrior team that clips Georgia will have no chance at the Swamp. The battle with Georgia will determine control of the SEC East and perhaps the national title race, which will hinge on whether the Gator defense has stiffened enough not to allow Georgia's sensational sophomore tailback, echoes of Walker and Hearst, to run through them again. LSU will drop, UK will plummet, good year to play Miami, but watch out for the crafty OBC late in the year. The Citadel game, alone, gives USC's schedule a big edge, and the absence of Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama leave this slate highly likely to finish with nary a blemish.

Thirteen-and-oh, and at least another NYC trip for Tim Tebow. Barring a total calamity in the Capital One, I will place Florida at #1 in the 2008 preseason poll, if this blog runs that far. It is possible even a loss to Georgia, provided the Dawgs fall twice in the SEC, wouldn't keep Florida out of their first Orange Bowl since 2001. Seven years prior to next season, in Steve Spurrier's last campaign, the Mighty Gators also opened at #1, and as mentioned previously, no Auburn to ruin things... at least not until Championship Saturday.

Bottom line: Unless the Superhero QB goes down for an extended time in at least one game, this team has 70/30 odds to run the table and perhaps 80/20 to reach Miami. FLA's offense will rate as the country's best, which means an improved D will only need to keep one team (UGA) below twenty-four. Given the coaching abilities of Meyer, his team should complete just the second undefeated SEC run since 1998 (Auburn, of course, 2004).

So, Florida #1, USC #2, what about anyone else? Or is this a reprisal of 2004-05, when the top two team stayed 1-2 all season long? We briefly referenced Georgia as perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Gators, what of their schedule?

v. Georgia Southern (-31)
v. Central Michigan (-24)
@ South Carolina (Even)
@ Arizona State!!! (-3)
v. Alabama (-8)
Bye
v. Tennessee (-14)
v. Vanderbilt (-21)
@ LSU (Even)
n. Florida (+3)
@ Kentucky (-30)
@ Auburn (Even)
Bye
v. Georgia Tech (-17)

At first glance, too difficult. How about that two-week quinella of Columbia and Tempe? Yikes. The game with SoCaro, especially since the OBC rolled into town, is always a vicious contest with few touchdowns. I suspect ASU will drop off, but I maintain winning on the road, presumably this one will take place under the lights, in Sun Devil Stadium is one the toughest tests for any team, Pac-10 or otherwise. Then come Alabama and a revenge match against the Vols. After a semi-breather against Vandy (don't get caught looking ahead!) the monster showdowns occur at the Rouge and J'ville. If that wasn't enough, Auburn lurks toward the end. Verdict: 10-2 if they're lucky, but a win over Florida would likely send them to Atlanta so long as they lost only one SEC contest. Unless the defense truly raises their level of play and they can get consistent play from signal-caller Matt Stafford, not a viable championship game threat, though probably a return trip to the Sugar Bowl and a Top 5 ranking in the final Bowl Championship Series.

Oklahoma? Yes, a real threat, and a bit of a break in not seeing Missouri in the regular season--even though the Sooners own them for all intents and purposes. I cannot find their complete schedule, but a 12-1 season is well within reach, possibly more if Sam Bradford continues his improvement.

Finally, a dark horse candidate in Morgantown, especially if Terry Bowden ends up the next coach at West Virginia. If Steve Slaton and Patrick White remain, plus Noel Devine, don't but it past the new boss. Remember Auburn '93? Then-new coach Bowden rode Patrick Nix, Stephen Davis, and Frank Sanders to an 11-0 mark punctuated by enormous wins over Florida (the SEC champ) and Alabama (bitter rival and SEC West champ) despite probation. He could do it again. The biggest problem is Auburn, the first game for the Mountaineers of 2008. The entire schedule does look inviting, with a possible danger in Boulder. A dark horse, but with the right coach, a threat nonetheless.

Super-Early Top 5:

1. Florida (14-0)
2. Southern California (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (13-1)
4. Georgia (11-3)
5. Ohio State (11-2)

BCS Championship: #1 Florida v. #2 USC = FLA 41 USC 28
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma v. Georgia (at-large) = OU 19 UGA 7
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia = VT 31 WVA 24
Fiesta Bowl: Illinois (at-large) v. Missouri (at-large) = ILL 21 MIZZ 10
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Arizona State (at-large) = OSU 24 ASU 23

Super-Early Top 5 Heisman:

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (if 13-0, will not be denied a second trophy)
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (chance if UGA beats FLA)
3. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State (needs huge game at USC)
4. Patrick White, QB, West Virginia (last chance for WVA to fulfill promise)
5. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (your 2009 winner?)

The Word From Ann Arbor

2007-12-14T09:55:00.000-08:00

Cliche, yes, but Michigan is at a crossroads. At some point the football program in association with the university must decide whether their team will continue down the same path since 1969 or jettison an aging, yet still very successful (at least in conference play) system led by Bo Schembechler. Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr, both former assistants, served as the face of the program from 1990-2007. During this time, Michigan dominated the Big 10 and only a six losses in seven stretch to Ohio State precluded additional BCS games (2001 and 2007) and a national title shot (2006). After 1996, Penn State ceased to concern Michigan, ditto Michigan State after Clockgate in 2001. Even an up-and-coming Illini team failed to hold their home turf against the Wolverines, and blew a Big 10 title share in the process.

Coach Carr's departure is drawing comparisons to that of John Cooper, circa 2000. Uh, no. Despite just two years removed from an 11-1 #2 final ranking, the erstwhile Buckeye chieftain had utterly lost control of his team, academics were a joke, players were fighting each other in practice, and, wonder of wonders, the program continued to lose (in 2000, embarrassingly) to SEC bowl opponents. Whilst Jim Tressel has got the better of Carr to a 6-1 tune, Michigan's image remains quite good, even with the recent trickle of dime-scale discipline problems. In short, they are in a better position, with the developing Ryan Mallet as their new leader, than Ohio State seven years ago.

Except that unlike Ohio State, UM's rejected list (both directions) has gone public. They offered Les Miles of LSU something very close but not enough, ditto with Greg Schiano of Rutgers (as to why the latter would want the Penn State position over the Michigan one, not sure I understand that), while apparently discounting Brian Kelly of Cincinnati. OSU looked seriously at Bob Stoops and Mike Belloti, yet settled on the championship game experience of Youngstown State's leader. While it is difficult to say from afar, say, an ocean removed, the UM search committee seems deadlocked on whether to find the next Lloyd Carr or break the mold.

Without question, the past few years have served as a wake-up call to the three principal football programs of the Midwest: Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. ND probably still cannot believe Urban Meyer turned them down and now they're stuck with an unproven collegiate coach for the rest of his 10-year mega-contract. Obviously Michigan does not aspire to go down that route, but, in lieu of a better comparison, who is their Tressel? More to the point, is it possible for the Wolverines to hire a coach that can win the next decade against Ohio State? Of course, while the Senator's team rolls on like a well-oiled machine, 5-5 or even 6-4 is well within range. UM fans should not expect, however, a recreation of 1988-1995, an anomalous run without peer in the rivalry of The Game.

So, who should it be?

Jeff Tedford: Even the NFL has pined after this guy, irrespective of the "lost in translation" effect of his quarterbacks to the next level. Only a youthful error kept the Bears from #1 this season, then, utter calamity. They lost SIX times in their last seven games in a free-fall last seen in State College in 1999, even then LaVar, Courtney, et al. only dropped three. Putting on the UM cap (yes, as an OSU partisan in reality), the inability to displace USC for conference supremacy doesn't truly concern me, yet with their talent and alleged coaching genius, where are the BCS bowls? Yes, yes, in 2004 they got left at the altar by the teary speech given by another fair maiden, but what else?

He would break the mold and infuse the program with excitement, but would it last?

Brian Kelly: His one year in Cincy produced a tough team, yet a remarkably inconsistent one, fair enough. Unlike Tedford, not as much to go on here. For some reason he has rubbed the Next Lloyd crowd the wrong way, even though his non-Big Six conference experience could remind one of Schembechler at Miami of Ohio in the mid-1960s.

Not really breaking the mold.

Les Miles: If UM wants him, they could have him, yet they seem to want some self-flagellation from a proud man likely to win his first national championship--in the toughest conference no less. If he beats Tressel, and decisively, his price tag jumps even higher. If money and control are the issues (the latter perhaps more so), won't his demands simply grow after a projected 30-10 win over OSU? On the other hand, Ohio State hired Cooper in no small part because his Arizona State team defeated Michigan in a Rose Bowl, never fathoming they'd turn 5-4 to 2-10-1. As noted in this space, Tressel hammered a perhaps distracted Miles at an otherwise purposeless match at the Alamo Bowl in 2004. If Loquacious Les can bring two superb coordinators with him, absolutely, yet if fans questioned the Carr-DeBord strategy, is this guy that big of an improvement? Has he won a game as an underdog at LSU? The Bayou Bengals got stuffed in two tough SEC roadies last year, walloped ND, then fell twice in triple overtime, narrowing slipping past Florida and Auburn along the way in 2007. Would Michigan take some of the same athletes as LSU? Just asking...

He would break the mold, in part because the mold is fighting against him, for reasons not particularly clear at this juncture.

Chris Peterson: Last year, the "hot" coach with his Boise State team that earned the respect of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, this year, sans the trusty QB, two setbacks. His play-calling wowed a nation, yet he is but an inheritor of what Dan Hawkins built from the ground up.

Michigan would struggle to break the mold to a greater extent than this hire.

The Man to Hire...

Could UM entice the Ol' Ball Coach, as he would DO what JoePa failed to accomplish: winning eight of ten conference crowns. Spurrier would run off 7-1 after 7-1 and probably win a few Rose Bowls and another title. He could leave South Carolina, he's done it before. Few coaches would perform better against Tressel in psychological gamesmenship. With Joe Paterno likely moving on soon, Spurrier's entry would fulfill a needed niche for the conference, unless you expect the Zooker to contend for titles year in and year out.

Problems?

No way, plus OBC thinks he isn't far from catching FLA and UGA and figures that a greater feat than winning Big 10 title after Big 10 title. He also doesn't fit the lineage, even if his mentality is closer to Fielding Yost and his "Point a Minute" offense of the early 1900s.

Final Order:

1) Steve Spurrier - offer total control
2) Brian Kelly - some reservations
3) Jeff Tedford - narrowly over Miles
4) Les Miles - only if he wins championship
5) Ron English - the defensive coordinator, perhaps Lloyd's preferred choice

They wouldn't actually hire the Ball State guy, would they?

Can LSU Lose?

2007-12-06T08:07:00.000-08:00

In their house, just down the road from the Rouge? To a Big 10 team that last defeated an SEC school in the 1980s? Representing a conference with a stellar BCS and unblemished BCS Championship Game record since 1992?

Almost no one thinks so. In my official bowl picks pool, I registered my score as LSU 30, Ohio State 10. Bayou Bengals beware, my prognostication record in the Big One is something just shy of atrocious. I had Florida State against Virginia Tech and of course Miami versus Nebraska. Those games were easy. I have missed almost every title game in the last half dozen seasons, so it is probably best just to disregard my views on this matter. Yeah, that included Ohio State last year.

I was not among those clamoring for a "day after" Columbus Dispatch special newspaper weeks in advance, as I recall I picked the Bucks to win a tough game, figuring Florida's defense could hold them below their comfort level, as only Illinois had done in the regular season. As it turned out, Troy Smith was hit early and often, by the merciless Gator line, the wideouts couldn't get open, and the defense got stuck in short field after short field. Final: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. What, you mean you weren't aware of the score?

That embarrassing margin + a less talented team + the departure of the school's greatest quarterback + the favorable location for the #2 team + the fact that they play in the SEC = decided OSU underdog. Well, yeah, but didn't they top Miami?

True, but with a mostly absent offense buoyed by five 'Cane turnovers in their personal House of Horrors, the old Fiesta Bowl site in Tempe (read: 1986 title game). Unlike the disaster of four years later, Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage and harassed Ken Dorsey all night, despite falling behind 0-7 early. This time, OSU brings a more experienced offensive line and their most talented tailback--dare we say it--in school history.

Yet back to the original question, can LSU lose? Of course...

1) Turnovers: if OSU isn't > +3 in this category, it's going to be a real ugly day for Todd Boeckman and the crew. Unfortunately, the Tigers seem to lack the season-killing miscues of last season (especially in Gainesville), which will make +3 awfully hard to achieve.

2) Early momentum: of course, they had this last year but the highly rated defense allowed FLA to tie the game without giving Smith a chance to operate with a lead. A 10-0 start would quiet a raucous crowd, at least temporarily, more importantly it would give Beanie a chance to run the football. Boeckman may have played spectacularly in State College, but if OSU needs him to throw thirty times they're kaput.

3) Les Miles is outcoached: Urban Meyer is a genius compared to this guy. With one eye on the LSU job, yes, but with a more talented team and Tressel without his blossoming QB, Miles got his hat handed to him in the 2004 Alamo Bowl. That OSU team lacked a credible running threat, indeed, flanker Ted Ginn Jr. served as the primary ball-carrier while the game was still in doubt. JaMarcus Russell departed, which means the Tigers are less prone to trying to make great plays from nothing, but their offense has stumbled at times this year. Also, will Bo Pellini's attention face division between his current boss and his future one in Lincoln?

4) Special teams: I'm sure Coach Tressel is harping on this one, as the Bucks cannot allow a long kick return, breakdowns on punt protection, or the awarding of field position due to missed field goals. Forcing a turnover or two is probably necessary for victory, or even to get a fourth quarter game.

5) Beanie: Wells needs to start his 2008 Heisman campaign with a sensational effort in the Dome, maybe 30/175/3, which he could provide. After a slow start, he really came on at the end of the season, even if he should've gotten the ball more against Illinois (but couldn't in part due to injury).

I don't think LSU's offense is good enough to romp over the Bucks without help from the OSU offense, this team has not shown itself formidable on 60-70 yard drives, except in the fourth quarter when they perform tremendously. Whether Flynn starts or not, the Bayou Bengals will look to run the football early, possibly to free up Doucet on the outside.

The Bucks can win this game, but if they don't have a significant lead after three quarters the comeback ability (and superior conditioning) of the Tigers will result in their second crystal ball in five campaigns.

A Stroll Down Memory Lane

2007-12-02T03:58:00.000-08:00

Before I self-flagellate, a little crow about my parlay of the year: Oregon, to beat USC, and NOT to rank in the final poll. At #2 in the BCS just weeks ago, it looked like another foolish pick. Alas, not so fast my friend...

The exercise: a preseason poll and how it measured up...

BOLD: indicates a sincere tip of the hat.

1. Louisiana State (5)

Analysis: O, how I loved thee all through the campaign, yet you lost my heart against the Hogs and didn't get it back. Both losses were not good.

Judgment: Slightly overrated, -4 performance

2. Michigan (17)

Analysis: Actually, given their 6-1 Big Ten start, not so bad. Riiight. The 7-39 stinkbomb against Oregon and the half-hearted effort in Madison will still not likely prove as memorable as a loss to Appalachian State.

Judgment: Significantly overrated, -15 performance

3. Texas (NR)

Analysis: I'm officially off the Mack Brown bandwagon, the program ran on fumes for a time without Vince Young but the parade of Big 12 losses to mediocre teams has become quite disturbing.

Judgment: Awful, < -23 performance

4. Florida (7)

Analysis: Knew Tebow would be good, knew the Gators had one of the best coaches, didn't think Auburn would get them again. Had them losing to LSU though, but not to Georgia.

Judgment: Slightly overrated, -3 performance

5. Southern California (4)

Analysis: My 10-2 forecast (nailed ORE game, as for that NEB game, err...) proved remarkably prescient. I never bought the hype. Rose Bowl? Yes, but nothing more.

Judgment: Dead on, +1 performance

6. Wisconsin (14)

Analysis: They figured to lose one to either Michigan or Ohio State, but getting housed by PSU even at Beaver Stadium was terrible. P. J. Hill didn't become a Heisman threat and the defense got gouged by Beanie and the Bucks.

Judgment: Overrated, -8 performance

7. West Virginia (16)

Analysis: Goodbye to all that, part deux. The worst home loss in school history, still, got the Big East champion part right.

Judgment: Overrated, -9 performance

8. Florida State (NR)

Analysis: They upset then-#2 BC, and, let's just move right along...

Judgment: Awful, < -18 performance

9. Georgia (1)

Analysis: Had the 10-2 record, didn't quite foresee just how formidable a two-loss team would prove this year. Missed the Florida game, too.

Judgment: Underrated, +8 performance

10. UCLA (NR)
11. Nebraska (NR)
12. Louisville (NR)

Analysis: Twenty returning starters didn't work out too well, Sam Keller never became a Heisman threat, and Brian Brohm was let down by everyone, coaches included.

Judgment: Awful, awful, and awful. < -15, < -14, < -13, respectively

13. Oklahoma (3)

Analysis: Didn't buy Bradford, do now. Didn't think much of a team that failed to conquer Boise State, thought Texas was better (oops)

Judgment: Significantly underrated, +10 performance

14. Rutgers (NR)

Analysis: Just never played with consistency, wiped out South Florida and then got dropped by Maryland. Ray Rice didn't capitalize on his team's 2006 season.

Judgment: Significantly overrated, < -11 performance

15. Penn State (25)

Analysis: Allowed OSU to run them off the field, failed to score a TD at Michigan, and closed with an ugly collapse against Sparty. More mediocrity for JoePa.

Judgment: Significantly overrated, -10 performance

16. Tennessee (13)

Analysis: Didn't see them winning the SEC East, but pretty much nailed their performance against Florida. Looked awful in Tuscaloosa, though.

Judgment: Slightly underrated, +3 performance

17. Virginia Tech (6)

Analysis: Knew LSU game was an "L," but like UGA, didn't see a two-loss team this impressive, also didn't see a conference title, oops.

Judgment: Significantly underrated, +11 performance

18. Ohio State (2)

Analysis: Well, forecast 3-4 losses. They dropped one. Third straight "odd year" with a BCS Bowl appearance. Rebuilding? Ha!

Judgment: Significantly underrated, +16 performance

19. Boise State (NR)

Analysis: Thought they would only lose once, dropped two games. Disappointing loss to Hawaii, too. Still, a good year.

Judgment: Overrated, < -6 performance

20. South Carolina (NR)

Analysis: Missed the early rise, didn't think their collapse would prove as bad. Nailed the LSU loss and UK win, expected more though from the Old Ball Coach.

Judgment: Overrated, < -5 performance

21. California (NR)

Analysis: Curiously low for August, yet a lot better than most. This team stood one score away from #1 at one time, won at Autzen, but completely fell apart down the stretch, my goodness, they lost to STANFORD!!!

Judgment: Slightly overrated, < -4 performance

22. Auburn (13)

Analysis: Didn't see win in Gainesville coming, yet believed second in SEC firmly possible.

Judgment: Underrated, +9 performance

23. Oregon State (NR)

Analysis: Hell, the pollsters have them about here. I bought early but a few eye-opening losses caused my exodus from the bandwagon, team failed to capitalize on ten-win momentum from 2006.

Judgment: Dead on, -2 performance

24. Arkansas (15)

Analysis: Never saw a win at Baton Rouge, but thought D-Mac could keep them in the race for #2 in the West. The defeat at the hands of UK, mind you, was not a good one.

Judgment: Underrated, -9 performance

25. Miami (FL) (NR)

Analysis: Drank too much Randy Shannon Kool-Aid, 0-48 drubbing by Virginia.

Judgment: Awful, < -1 performance (awful because team isn't in Top 40)

BIGGEST HITS:

LSU, FLORIDA, USC, TENNESSEE, PENN STATE, and OREGON STATE

COLOSSAL MISFIRES:

MICHIGAN, TEXAS, FLORIDA STATE, UCLA, NEBRASKA, LOUISVILLE, and MIAMI (FL)

Finally...

HIGHEST FINAL POLL TEAMS NOT RANKED IN AUGUST

8. Illinois - Bandwagoneer for '08, Iowa loss notwithstanding
9. Arizona State - Great season for Denny-E
10. Kansas - Reesing, but didn't play anyone
12. Missouri - Finally played to expectations
18. Virginia - won more than fair share of close ones

BEST CALL: USC, specified two losses (1-2 on those games)

MOST SERENDIPITOUS CALL: OREGON, and it's not close

WORST CALL: TEXAS, and yes, it takes a lot to beat out FSU, UCLA, NEB...

RT2020 Poll: Week of December 2

2007-12-02T03:15:00.000-08:00

1. Georgia (+3)
2. Ohio State (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Southern California (+2)
5. Louisiana State (NC)
6. Virginia Tech (+1)
7. Florida (-1)
8. Illinois (+2)
9. Arizona State (+5)
10. Kansas (+1)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Missouri (-11)
13. Tennessee (NC)
14. Wisconsin (+1)
15. Arkansas (+1)
16. West Virginia (-13)
17. Michigan (+1)
18. Virginia (-2)
19. Brigham Young (-3)
20. Clemson (+3)
21. South Florida (NC)
22. Boston College (-5)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NC)
25. Penn State (NC)

In defense of the ballot...

I think I can reasonably argue that the Dawgs are the #1 team in America. First, for all of my Buckeye sympathies, this SEC school played a rougher schedule than Ohio State or even Oklahoma. Secondly, they lost a tough game to South Carolina when the OBC mattered, and boast one of the longest winning streaks in the nation. Yes, they didn't win their conference let alone their division (thanks to a loss in Knoxville), but no team, aside from USC is playing as well.

I keep OSU at #2. Mostly, I just cannot see them as the best team in the country unless they defeat an opponent in the Not Sugar. I did have them at #2 even before Missouri's embarrassing loss to the Sooners and West Virginia's, well, whatever that was in Morgantown tonight. Ohio State beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, two of them on the road, and lost only ONCE (something that matters this season) to a team perhaps destined for the Rose Bowl.

Oklahoma showed me a lot tonight, particularly in that second half after Missouri had rallied to tie late. The better athletes and the more efficient quarterback (dare we say, better?) prevailed. The loss to Texas Tech I can excuse due to Sam Bradford's concussion, the loss in Boulder I cannot. Despite their talent and reasonable schedule, two losses in conference are two losses.

USC smashed UCLA, no surprise there. Yes, the media loves them and bemoans the injured finger that derailed, well, something. A deserving Rose Bowl participant, but they didn't beat Oregon when Dennis Dixon still had two good wheels, and that loss to Stanford remains the single worst of the season.

No one loved the Bayou Bengals more than this blogger, starting from December, but I'm over them. Had they punished Tennessee today instead of lucking out on a defensive touchdown, or, more significantly, had they stopped any Arkansas runner of consequence last week, yeah, I would still sing their praises. No more. Yes, a backup quarterback, and yes thanks for denying the Vols the title of worst SEC champion in recent memory, but that does not warrant another opportunity to win it all.

Week 14 Preview: Prelude to a Championship

2007-11-26T06:09:00.000-08:00

They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just one favorite to win a game to qualify for the Not Sugar just over a month from now. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for another team (MIZZ and WVA) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a seven-point home loss in early November. Here sit the Ohio State Buckeyes, 10-1 (scrap the D-1AA game, as the BCS does), waiting for these two teams.

They wait and they watch in an enviable if unenviable position. The enviable position is that they need just two favorites to win a game to qualify for a BCS game, three for the Rose Bowl. The unenviable aspect is the dirty feeling of rooting for three of these four teams (MIZZ, TEN, BC, HI) to lose so as to wipe away, in toto, the stain of a penalty-filled home loss to Michigan which cost them the Big 10 title. Here sit the Illinois Fightin' Illini, waiting for those three teams.

VERDICT: Big 10 denied, yessir, lot of money riding on this slate of games for Mr. Delaney and the crew...

Missouri v. Oklahoma (San Antonio): The Big 12 Championship. Had the Sooners avoided the upset bug in Lubbock, this game would pit #1 v. #2 perhaps, even so, only one team was headed to N'Orleans. I liked the way the Tigers played in Norman until their self-destructive nature kicked in leading to a 31-41 loss to Sam Bradford and OU, still smarting after a dubious collapse in Boulder. Bob Stoops is the better coach, Oklahoma has the better athletes, but is Chase Daniel and, gasp, Missouri speed enough to put a perennial mediocrity on Bourbon Street? There is a chance if Missouri loses a close one the BCS will keep them above Kansas and thus in line for a possible BCS game. The North has won just TWICE in this contest since the turn of the century (2001, a upset of #2 Texas by Colorado; 2003, a smackdown for the ages of #1-by-a-country-mile Oklahoma courtesy of Darren Sproles and Kansas State) and OU has smashed through several times. The support of the college football world, what of it is not spent in Morgantown, rides with the feel-good story of those boys from Columbia. Will the Buckeyes once again play the role of villains? No, in a classic, Missouri marches on and Chase Daniel takes the Heisman Trophy from Tim Tebow. MIZZ 37 OU 31

Pittsburgh @ West Virginia: Yes, folks are often impressed by shiny objects, and it doesn't come shinier than a 66-21 whipping of UCONN to sew up a conference title. This game will determine which week WVA plays in N'Orleans, heaven knows they want zero part of LSU. Look for this one to remain undecided into the second half, it is the Backyard Brawl after all and the 2007 season might have one more epic upset in store for us. Nah, who am I kidding? The Mountaineer defense bent but didn't break last week, if they can hold the Panthers to twenty-five, this one is a blowout. More hosannas, thus, on the way. WVA 56 PIT 16

Boston College v. Virginia Tech: The ACC Championship and a rematch of a stirring comeback/collapse earlier this season in Blacksburg. At that time, Matt Ryan seemed to have his hands all over the Heisman, a pair of bad losses plus a rejeuvenation at Clemson ended the Golden Eagles title hopes but do give them a credible Orange Bowl shot. Tech is the better team with a better defense but an inferior quarterback, which means the game is once again in Ryan's hands, with a seat in NYC beckoning. Chestnut Hill gorges itself over oranges. BC 27 VT 23

LSU v. Tennessee: The SEC Championship and a thorough letdown. Not only is surging Georgia not here but neither is a one-loss (de facto unbeaten in SEC-speak) Bayou Bengal squad. Instead we have the bumbling Vols with their embattled coach taking on a distracted Tiger team that cannot feel too confident about their play as of late. Fortunately, Tennessee doesn't run the ball like it used to, you know, back when it last won the conference title (1998?!?). Years ago, Matt Mauck flummoxed a gassed #2 Tennessee, whose running back had nothing left after an awesome display in Gainesville the week prior, and cost them a title bout with Miami. Revenge of 2001? Eh, not so much. LSU (Coach Miles last game?) 30 UT 20

UCLA @ USC: The battle for the Ax. Revenge. Less than fondly remembering a horse-whipping in 2005 at the hands of Bush, White, and Co., the Baby Blues rose up and decimated Trojan hopes in 2006 to the tune of a 9-13 loss that ushered Florida into the Not Fiesta. Far from being incensed, Pete Carroll should extend some gratitude: the Bruins bounced Oregon from the Rose Bowl perch last week, now, once again, it is all on UCLA. Not close. USC 51 UCLA 21

Washington @ Hawaii: Our last unbeaten in D-1A looks to enter Fiesta Bowl deliberations with a win over a Pac-10 doormat beaten down by perhaps the nation's toughest schedule. While Illinois looks on praying not only for a Huskies upset but also that men in blazers don't think upon their Iowa performance, Colt Brennan, with, say, 7 TD and 700 yards passing, can join Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, and Ryan in the Big Apple. Does Hawaii deserve a BCS bid over Illinois? No, but that's coming from a Buckeye sympathizer. Will they get one? Yes. HI 45 WASH 36

Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 1, MIZZ win)

Daniel, McFadden, Tebow, Brennan, and Ryan

Final Heisman Ballot (Edition 2, MIZZ loss)

Tebow, McFadden, Daniel, Brennan, and Ryan

Predicted ballot: Tebow, Daniel, McFadden, Brennan, Ryan

Predicted BCS lineup:

Not Sugar: #1 Missouri v. #2 West Virginia (Big 12 and Big East teams)
Fiesta Bowl and Orange Bowl lose conference champions
Rose Bowl: Ohio State and USC
Sugar Bowl: LSU and Kansas
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State and Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Boston College and Georgia

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 25

2007-11-25T04:27:00.000-08:00

1. Missouri (+1)
2. Ohio State (+1)
3. West Virginia (+1)
4. Georgia (+1)
5. Louisiana State (-4)
6. Southern California (+4)
7. Virginia Tech (+3)
8. Florida (NC)
9. Kansas (-3)
10. Illinois (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+4)
12. Auburn (+1)
13. Tennessee (-1)
14. Arizona State (-7)
15. Wisconsin (+5)
16. Arkansas (+8)
17. Boston College (+5)
18. Michigan (+3)
19. Hawaii (+4)
20. Virginia (-4)
21. South Florida (NR)
22. Brigham Young (NR)
23. Clemson (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Penn State (NR)

Sublime: #1 Missouri, #3 West Virginia, and #6 Southern California

Laid an Egg: #5 LSU, #9 Kansas, and #14 Arizona State

Unreal. That was my initial reaction to the end of LSU's title run yesterday to Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, some H-back, and practically everyone who wanted to run the ball against the once-fearsome Tigers. Almost 400 yards--on the ground. An inability to force a key turnover late in the second half or on three Hog OT drives. I had believed in the Bayou Bengals since last December, even to the point of assuming without #1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell that this crew would prove better than 11-2. Yes, I thought the offense would rate as less explosive sans two NFL first-round picks at wideout, but I didn't count on the defense. Yes, D-Mac is spectacular and maybe a Heisman threat again (more below), but no self-respecting defense should allow an improvised wishbone to gash it time after time. Yes, this same thing happened to Ohio State, also at home, but to a better team with a uniquely-skilled quarterback. Also, the Bucks coughed it up repeatedly, LSU didn't make a mistake until Matt Flynn's last pass deep in the third overtime. And still lost.

Les Miles, it is now safe to pursue the Michigan job, but what a clunker to end your meaningful LSU tenure. All of those athletes and promse, yet two-losses every season. Last year, the schedule made that understandable, this season? Not so much. No program in America had a more title-friendly slate than the Bayou Bengals and they failed to get it done, and the fact both defeats came in triple overtime shouldn't ease their pain or the criticism. Don't worry, a trip to N'Orleans is still in the offering, yet, remarkably, with only the same stakes as last year.

Congratulations to the new #1 and illest of luck against Oklahoma next week. Chase Daniel had a Heisman Trophy moment in KC, but he has to do it again or the Tigers will blow their best opportunity in decades. Kansas proved that they were not the best team in the nation, sorry computers. They beat no one and lost the only game that mattered, in the words I once presumptively addressed to WVA, goodbye to all that. Nice season, but not a worthy performance of an 11-0 team, yes, the game could've been played in Lawrence, but Daniel was simply the best player on the field, the match will prove tougher, however, next week.

Yes, crushing a ranked conference opponent at home is very impressive, but don't tell me the Mountaineers didn't run up the score! Patrick White played a phenomenal game and WVA just hammered the overrated Huskies to death. Some of those plays were all White and any BCS Championship Game opponent is going to have a difficult time with that explosive, high-octane rushing attack. If you can make White throw it, well, you should beat this team, if not, ugh. I see one Mr. Schlabach, drank the Kool-Aid in full, we'll see, sir, we'll see. Hit this team in the mouth like South Florida and see what happens. This school has never won a national championship and failed miserably in its two efforts (1988 and 1993) with undefeated seasons. UCONN was a lucky team that got smoked, if anyone thinks yesterday's result was more than that, I don't know what else to tell you. On the other hand, give Mr. Schlabach credit, unlike other sniveling, condescending anti-OSUers, he came right out and said it, point-blank: Ohio State has no chance to beat West Virginia and should save themselves the embarrassment of trying. Fair enough. Forty-one to fourteen has a loud ring.

Boise State, overrated by much of the country (pointing at self), should not appear in the next AP poll. They played two borderline tough teams and got smoked by both, last-place Washington and the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii. Look, Colt Brennan is a top quarterback and he played tremendously last night, but spare me this talk of Hawaii as a Top 15 team. You're telling me they're more deserving of a BCS bid then Georgia or Illinois, or even the loser of the Big 12 North title game? I'm just not buying it. A win next week, though, and they will certainly receive a bid.

Kudos to Pete Carroll and USC for finally showing what 99% of the football world forecast in August (but not me, hey, give me something after the LSU/UM Not Sugar prognostication) by dismantling a good ASU team in Tempe. Had he stayed healthy and played like this all year, John David Booty likely takes the Heisman Trophy. In any event, the Trojans are well-positioned to finish in the Top 5 for the sixth consecutive season, the longest stretch since Florida State earned FOURTEEN such marks from 1987-2000.

BCS Prediction:

1) Missouri
2) West Virginia
3) Ohio State

The Bucks will probably trail badly in the human polls because people tend to be impressed by shiny objects, but the computers may look kinder on their one-loss season.

Heisman ballot:

1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
2) Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
3) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

Tebow was tremendous yet again, but the ball is entirely in Daniel's court, even if he isn't quite 40-49 next week, a win over likely favored OU will make this a fascinating three-way race that may hinge on which southern player carries the SEC region. D-Mac had his best performance of the season in the biggest game, knocking the favorite out of the national title picture in the process.

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 18

2007-11-18T01:26:00.000-08:00

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Missouri (+3)
3. Ohio State (+6)
4. West Virginia (+2)
5. Georgia (+2)
6. Kansas (-2)
7. Arizona State (+1)
8. Florida (+2)
9. Virginia Tech (+2)
10. Southern California (+2)
11. Texas (+4)
12. Illinois (+5)
13. Auburn (+6)
14. Tennessee (+2)
15. Oklahoma (-12)
16. Virginia (+7)
17. Boise State (+3)
18. Oregon (-16)
19. Connecticut (NR)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. Michigan (-7)
22. Boston College (NR)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Arkansas (NR)
25. Florida State (NR)

When your QB goes down... #2 Oregon and #3 Oklahoma

Tip of my hat: #22 Boston College and #23 Hawaii(!!!) for impressive road wins

After Illinois at #12, I have no real idea, winner of BSU/HAW to get validation

Musings...

LSU's offense remains questionable, but if they don't have to play Georgia they should cruise past Arkansas and Tennessee to host the Not Sugar, which, of course, they will win. SEC teams, don't you know, need not even play in the final game to be ranked #1...

My sympathies to the Oregon faithful, one play from 14-0 with a Heisman nearly in the grasp, a tipped pass in the endzone began a stretch that ultimately led to Dennis Dixon's exit from this season and as likely as not Oregon's shot at even making the Rose Bowl. If USC can defeat Arizona State and Oregon wins out, they will still play (likely) Ohio State, but without their greatest benefactor, can they win? I seem them struggling to beat UCLA.

Kansas hater? They have yet to beat a single team in the AP Poll, but they will get a stiff test next week in Kansas City. Missouri's loss to Oklahoma took yet another step down the ladder with the Sooners debacle in Lubbock last night, would beating a two-loss OU team for the Big 12 title to finish 12-1 really seem all that impressive? The one thing they have going for them is they beat Illinois, which Ohio State failed to do. If they win it, they will go. If Kansas wins out, they will go. Nonetheless, a big piece of OSU's puzzle to reach the title game panned out with the Red Raiders win.

West Virginia may claim to have a case too, if they beat Connecticut and Pittsburgh to claim the outright Big East title, only a loss to South Florida has blemished their season. On the other hand, they don't have a signature victory, with their biggest win of the year coming at Piscataway. Will the Bucks jump them in the latest BCS poll? Hmmm...

As for Ohio State, here are some years for you: NEVER, 1981, 1963, NEVER. Answers? The last time the Bucks won both at State College and Ann Arbor in the same season; the last time OSU won two straight games in Michigan Stadium; the last time the Scarelet and Gray won FOUR straight in the series (unbeaten from 1972-75, but with a tie); the last time OSU won SIX out of SEVEN in the series. If you consider that Michigan ended 1997 with an 8-1-1 mark in the last ten meetings, they've gone only 3-7 since, two of those wins in 1999 and 2000. A vicious OSU defense plus the elements limited Michigan to a season-low in total yardage and the fourth-lowest point total in the history of the game.

Chris Wells is a bona fide Heisman candidate for next season and may have back-doored his way into the Top 5 for this season. Ohio State didn't attempt a pass in the second half, and absent a few plays, Beanie rumbled and rumbled, scoring twice, including a 62-yard back-breaker that will be seen on many August Heisman campaign videos next season. If Todd Boeckman can play better next year and a few juniors stick around, this is your preseason #2 team, behind...

The Gators, sigh. I've resigned myself to the fate of Tim Tebow winning the Heisman Trophy despite Florida's lack of a division title. Without him, quite simply, Florida would be struggling for bowl eligibility. The schedule was nasty this season, an older defense and an even more experienced #15 will bode very well for Urban Meyer next season, even more so if LSU is dealing with an expected coaching change.

Bottom line: OSU didn't get everything they needed this week, but a nice eleven-point win over Michigan plus the end of Oregon and (critically) Oklahoma might just make it a race to the finish between West Virginia (which can impress or extinguish themselves) and Tressel-led Bucks. Of all the Big 12 teams to lose today, OU was the one they needed, simply because OU is more likely, with its better athletes to beat the Big 12 North champion, especially if it's Kansas. Missouri played them well, in Norman, despite a so-so game from Heisman contender Chase Daniel.

Preview for next week unavailable due to travel, key games....

Southern California @ Arizona State: This is a game made for USC and their experience. It's very hard to win here, especially at night, but give the Trojans the edge and the inside track to Pasadena. USC 31 ASU 24

Boise State @ Hawaii: If Colt Brennan can't play, the Rainbow Warriors have no chance. I think he goes, but the reigning Fiesta Bowl champions can smell another visit, wouldn't OU be thrilled to see them again? BSU 29 HAW 23

Connecticut @ West Virginia: For the Big East title, the mystery-fluke team versus the one that always gets unnerved in these situations. A decisive win here either jumps the Bucks or gives them some breathing room. White and Slaton roll, a loss here would be inexcusable. WVA 45 CT 13

IRON BOWL: The South's greatest rivalry has lost some of its luster, namely, ALA cannot beat AUB. Nick Saban was brought here to win this game above all others, but the Tide have sleepwalked through two straight games and lost three straight overall. That can all go away with a tough win on the Plains. No, AUB is just a better team. AUB 19 ALA 12

Arkansas @ Louisiana State: Strange as it sounds, Darren McFadden can still win the Heisman Trophy, with a 150-yard and two score game against a defense recently punctured by.... Mississippi??? Ugh. ARK running game versus the Tiger defensive line, strength versus strength. Not at the Rouge, though. LSU 30 ARK 17

GAME OF THE WEEK...

Missouri @ Kansas: Two enter, one will leave with the division crown, which for the first time since 2001 actually means something, perhaps more so with OU reeling. Two high-scoring offenses with highly-rated quarterbacks. It is safe to say these two schools will never play a bigger game than this one. I just the Tigers are a little better than the Jayhawks, who foolishly scheduled this game away from Lawrence. The last undefeated Big Six conference school goes down, and hard. Chase Daniel books a ticket to New York City. MIZZ 34 KS 20

Heisman ballot (11/18): Tebow, Daniel, Dixon, Wells, and White

Projected BCS Standings (11/18):

1) LSU
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) West Virginia
5) Ohio State*

*Mainly because OU's computer ranking of #7 fell below OSU's own #6 last week, this should help the Mountaineers hold off a Buckeye surge in the polls. I expect OSU to be ranked #5 and WVA #4, it should prove very, very close though.

Week 12 Preview: Ecstasy of Small Minds

2007-11-12T06:22:00.000-08:00

Fans around the country, at one time or another, truly believe the national media is not on their side: obviously, these individuals are paranoid, but in the case of Ohio State they are absolutely right. Rather than NOT voting OSU #1--hell, as a decided partisan I never did--the media belittled their accomplishments (no real non-conference schedule, uh, what about Kansas, and how in the world does their computer ranking look so good? Wins over the Sooners, haven't played. Wins over Missouri, haven't played. Wins over Texas, uh, won't play. At all.) Sorry about that rant back there. The NYT article which recapped the game reeked of Eastern elitism from a certified Buckeye disparager, Mr. Pete Thamel. Rather than having the courage to offer his own opinion, i.e. Buckeyes suck, he hid behind the mirth emanating from southern quarters.

Last part of this rant before the preview. Geography is geography, how good do you think LSU and Florida would do if they had to play in the cold five times a season? By the way, do you ever notice those teams (Georgia, looking at you) never dare to tread far from, well, their own states?!? And yes, this is from a proud SEC alumnus. That conference wants a playoff? Fine, but make sure some semi and final games occur above the Mason-Dixon Line. Furthermore, all this nonsense about OSU's schedule never mentions the fact that the Bucks had BOTH PSU and Michigan on the road this year, essentially, in most years, a loss and a half. Washington also defeated Boise State too. I'm not saying they deserve a title shot after the monstrosity the other day (although, should matters come down to WVA and OSU, well...), as you can witness by my #9 ranking.

It took eleven games, but they finally missed their stars from last year. Anyway, on with the show...

Oregon @ Arizona: Mr. Dixon, that sound you here is Tim Tebow creeping up behind you, poised and ready to steal your Heisman Trophy. The nearly-always sensible Brad Edwards wrote that the Ducks cannot just win out, if they do not do so impressively then one of the Big 12 conglomerate can and will jump them, leading to, yes, chants of "Remember 2001! Remember 2001!" (Contrary to popular wisdom, those Ducks finished fourth, not third in the final BCS standings, and blew a twenty-one point lead at home to middling Stanford. They deserved nothing more than their Fiesta Bowl berth.) Sweet. Mike Stoops knows how to orchestrate an upset (think CAL last year), but this team has worked too hard and has far too much talent to fold here. In Los Angeles a week later, maybe. Not here. Dixon and Stewart romp. ORE 41 ARIZ 13

Lousiana State @ Mississippi: If they win out, no problemo for the Tigers, unfortunately, they have the hardest road, mostly because Georgia or Florida (if they're unlucky) awaits in Atlanta. The Gators had a tussle here, but the lack of a nightime atmosphere (underdogs should ALWAYS play key home games at night) and the reality that this is the worst team in the conference should not deter the nation's best. RT2020 has ridden this train for nearly one year, no reason to jump off here. Shades of 1959 this is not. LSU 34 MISS 12

Kansas @ Iowa State: Prediction: Jayhawk computer rankings will rise after this win for no apparent reason, like Hawaii's BCS standing, natch. The calm before the storm, but even a closer-than-expected win could hurt. I don't believe the Fightin' Manginos can stay perfect, but a loss in Ames would shock me. KS 46 ISU 20

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: Of the four road games for the Top 4, perhaps the most difficult. Although, we should say, this is not Basketball on Grass in its prime. A good test for the Sooners in their looming battle with MIZZ/KS in the Big 12 Championship. Like Oregon, style points matter: the Red Raiders have a winning record so an impressive win might help their BCS dreams. Sam Bradford came unglued, Boeckman-style (OK, a bit harsh) in Boulder, how will he do here? He'll do enough to win, an interesting tilt... for a half. OU 31 TT 21

Missouri @ Kansas State: A big win is a must here for Chase Daniel and the Tigers, given that a team which had defeated Texas surrendered seventy-plus to Nebraska!!! The black helmets are reaching pressure territory, never traversed, it will prove interesting to see how they deal with it. Another huge day for Daniel to set up a two-game(?) crucible for the Heisman Trophy. MIZZ 56 KSU 23

West Virginia @ Cincinnati: The last real hurdle for the Mountaineers. No, I wasn't terribly persuaded by their anemic seven-point win at home against a beaten Cardinals program. There remains a chance, a la South Florida, that the Bearcats are simply tougher than the sleek offense of White and Slaton. Absent a dominant performance, they can expect to get jumped by the Buckeyes if matters go a certain way in Ann Arbor. Remarkable, the Top 6 all travel away from friendly confines and, as remarkably in this 1990/1984-like campaign, I expect all to win. Odds say no. WVA 38 CIN 24

Ohio State @ Michigan: See here, abbreviated version: UM 38, OSU 27

Kentucky @ Georgia: Of all the games for the Cats, I feared this one the most when I offered my picks for 2007 in August. Quite frankly, Moreno should have 200 yards--in the first half (UK surrendered 200+ to Vandy!!!) unless Mark Richt calls off the dogs (pun intended) to save Rich Brooks some requisite embarrassment. The worst rush defense in the conference has to show up one of these days, no? And what happened to Andre' Woodson and the high-powered attack? Could it be all those aerial strikes occurred against suspect defenses? No, he played well against LSU, and Florida, OK, LSU. Ideally, the Athenians would prefer to allow a few late scores to allow the Wildcats to leave with their heads held high... only so they can outscore Tennessee the next week and deliver the SEC East to the 'Dawgs. UGA 51 UK 35

Boston College @ Clemson: Once, this game mattered. Now we only want to see if Matt Ryan will even qualify for NYC or if the Golden Eagles will ape the Cal Bears in full. Lest anyone forget, BC will go down in the annals as one of the most horribly overrated teams in college football history, save for SI's epic 2001 pick of Oregon State for the national title. Give Ryan a good game, but no escape from Death Valley as the Ultimate Survivor, Bowdenson, does it again. CLEM 30 BC 24

Northwestern @ Illinois: Respect where respect is due. A win here puts the Illini in line for the (for them) prestigious Capital One Bowl and an unseemly route at the hands of Georgia or Florida, zing. Seriously, once all the champagne has been downed, sober up and remember the disastrous Iowa game that cost you media adulation and a shot at the conference championship. Can Juice Williams do it twice in a row? Color me a bit skeptical, and the pride-infused Purple team can score in bunches, just ask Michigan State, if that means anything. Will they dance on the "I" after a win? Hey, it might clinch a trip to Disney World, yo! Quit hatin'! In other words, stay tuned. ILL 35 NWSTRN 13

Heisman Up: Dixon, Daniel, and White

Heisman Down: Tebow (WNP)

Odds of Top 6 all winning on the road: ORE (80%), LSU (90%), KS (85%), MIZZ (65%), WVA (70%) = ~81.6%

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 11

2007-11-11T02:48:00.000-08:00

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Kansas (+2)
5. Missouri (NC)
6. West Virginia (+1)
7. Georgia (+3)
8. Arizona State (NC)
9. Ohio State (-6)
10. Florida (+2)
11. Virginia Tech (+4)
12. Southern California (+1)
13. Clemson (+9)
14. Michigan (-5)
15. Texas (+1)
16. Tennessee (+4)
17. Illinois (+8)
18. Mississippi State (NR)
19. Auburn (-8)
20. Boise State (+2)
21. Cincinnati (+2)
22. Virginia (NR)
23. Penn State (NR)
24. Kentucky (NR)
25. Maryland (NR)

End of the Dream: #9 Ohio State

Utter Fraud (but still better than Hawaii): Boston College

Poise and Composure: #1 LSU, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Kansas

Embarrassing losses: #14 Michigan and #19 Auburn

Rapid Risers: #13(???) Clemson, #17 Illinois, #18 Mississippi State

Heisman ballot: Dennis Dixon, Tim Tebow, Chase Daniel, and Patrick White

Top Ten for BCS Bowls: LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan (hint, hint for next week), and Virginia Tech (projected conference champions) + USC/Arizona State, Kansas, Georgia/Florida, and, aaaaaarrrrrrrggggggghhhhhh, that team from the islands.

Not Sugar: #1 LSU v. #2 Oregon
Orange: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia
Sugar: Oklahoma v. Georgia
Fiesta: Kansas v. Hawaii
Rose: Arizona State v. Michigan

I think the Rose Bowl is inclined to take a Pac-10 team as their first choice (ORE's slot) whereas the Sugar (LSU's) would feel persuaded to take an 11-1 Oklahoma team probably rated #3 in the BCS. If the Jayhawks beat Missouri, I think they are assured of a spot, losing to OU would keep them in the Top 6 of the BCS standings. The Buckeyes, despite 1997, 2003, and 2005, cannot get in with two losses, they won't even rate in the Top 12 if that happens.

Capital One (maybe?) Bowl bound: #9 Ohio State, after all, should Illinois win out, they would have the tiebreaker for #2 in the Big 10, yes, a lot was lost yesterday.

Depressed thoughts of an OSU partisan...

Illinois played almost the perfect game yesterday in Ohio Stadium, perhaps calling on the spirits of prior Illini teams that vanquished OSU in C-Bus. Zero turnovers and one penalty do a lot of wins make, even on the road, even at the alleged #1 team in all the land. Time will only tell if this was the breakout game for Juice Williams, who finally showed his prodigious potential. I cannot recall a team in memory to rush for more than 250 yards on the banks of the O-River. Yes, an eighty-yard run (plus fumble???) may have inflated their stats a bit, but the much-celebrated linebacking corps made zero plays, forced zero mistakes, and generally looked as feeble against the run as the Bucks did in Ann Arbor four years prior: gulp. I guess the positive news for the country is that the clearly-not-Top-4-conference Big 10 will receive only one BCS team, kind of humiliating, but certainly fair. Both the Pac-10 and the SEC emphatically deserve two teams, the latter possibly three but the rules don't allow it. Coach Tressel has a LOT of work to do to get his troops ready for The Game. The stench is bad, but another win in Michigan Stadium would at least lock down the Rose Bowl, very possibly to draw the same team they last played there (ASU).

Kudos to the rest of the Top 5, particularly the Jayhawks. No, I still don't think they can beat Oklahoma, but if they do, goodness, someone is going to be very unhappy among the triumvirate, probably Oregon. Moral: don't lose a home game, particularly not to a team that nosedives the rest of the season.

I had to think twice about ranking OSU above Florida, and by the way, Tim Tebow just needs one slip by Tennessee AND Georgia to capture the East and warrant a rematch against LSU. The sophomore quarterback is pretty much the ONLY reason the Mighty Gators aren't 2-6 in the SEC as opposed to a very good 5-3. Not that South Carolina has a defense or anything. If Tennessee and Georgia both win out, the Vols take the East and the Dawgs are in line to play in the Sugar Bowl.

Can we say that the national title race is down to five teams? Yes, as I don't think West Virginia can get there and the Suckeyes are certainly out of the mix too. Missouri has the toughest road, they almost certainly need a loss by Oregon and/or LSU to reach the Top 2, on the other hand, if they can defeat Kansas and OU, plus throw in Illini's (whom they beat) win over Ohio State, they can make a case. As for the Fightin' Manginos, our key precedent is 1999: that year, the voters and the computers took an unbeaten Big 6 conference champ (VT) over a more powerful one-loss team (NEB) to play Florida State, a 46-29 victory may lead one to believe they chose wrong.

In any event, if it comes down to an LSU, Oregon, and Big 12 champ argument, I will tabulate each team's CLUTCH ranking (points for road and neutral site wins against Big 6 competition and the program formally known as Notre Dame).

Week 11 Preview: Great Games in August...

2007-11-05T08:10:00.000-08:00

Do not always equal fine match-ups in November, with that in mind, let us proceed...

Louisville @ West Virginia: The last two years, this contest has ranked among the most entertaining and dramatic of any in college football--it may well reprise that role this Thursday night, yet, will anyone bother? Surely ESPN must frown over what this game--billed as a national championship elimination match in August--has degenerated into ever since Louisville failed to protect a late lead in Lexington. The Mountaineers have mostly done their part, however, and presumed big games by Patrick White and Steve Slaton, gentlemen who well remember the debacle last year at the Papa John, will keep Morgantown's slim title shot alive. WVA 51 LOU 23

Illinois @ Ohio State: Once upon a time, the Illini won four consecutive games at Ohio Stadium, a streak not snapped until Eddie George's Buckeye record rushing total in 1995, yet, two more Ls on the banks of the O-River followed in 1999 and 2001. Illinois has won six times in Columbus since 1986. For comparison, Michigan has needed six additional years to accumulate six wins at the 'Shoe. On the other hand, the Bucks hammered the Illini 40-2 two years ago and lead 17-0 in Champaign before running out the clock to a 17-10 win. A few weeks ago, Illini looked as compelling a Big 10 title contender as either OSU or UM, then, alas, came the Iowa game. Pardon me if I'm not terribly impressed by Juice and Mendenhall's huge days at the Metrodome. Illinois does have a good defense though and may keep this one close well into the fourth quarter. Beanie Wells, though, continues to roll. OSU 24 ILL 19

Kansas @ Oklahoma State: After yet another Michigan State imitation (a massively blown lead to Texas) last week, the Cowboys and their explosive offense welcome the finest Jayhawk team in many an autumn. As mentioned yesterday, concerns abound from the lackluster KU defensive effort against hapless Nebraska, despite the "76" on their side of the ledger. West Virginia, among others, eagerly wait for this team to flop under the burden of weighty expectations--as the WVA always does this themselves, they figure others must suffer the same fate. Look for the Pokes to mope a little too long, Coach Mangino and Co. escape Stillwater, reminiscient of the 2000 Sooners. KU 31 OSU 21

Auburn @ Georgia: The Dawgs, fresh off their uninspiring effort against Troy (my, what a non-conference schedule!) host the tough Tigers between the hedges. Georgia needs another L from Tennessee, but, thanks to Moreno, have begun to think SEC title, which would calculate to Mark Richt's third in six seasons, a pace not seen in Athens since the Dooley Era. Still, I think Auburn is a mentally-tougher team and no coach in America is better than Tommy Tuberville on the road, they'll be some head-knockin' in this one, touchdowns at a premium? AUB 17 UGA 13

Michigan @ Wisconsin: Akin to WVA-LOU, many pundits saw the Big 10 race come down to this clash in Madison. Two years ago, Bucky finally got over the Wolverine hump, yet registered their only loss of 2006 in Ann Arbor. These games always seem to go the same way: Wisky tries to ram it down UM's throat, and the blue-and-yellow helmets repel every assault, the Wolverines make one or two big plays and that is that. After humilations to Penn State and Ohio State, plus a missed opportunity at Illinois, the once-solid Badgers are reeling. Does that mean... uh, no. UM 42 WIS 20

Florida @ South Carolina: The Gators last stand to defend their conference championship and Tebow's bid to reclaim his Heisman standing. The OBC just got destroyed in Fayetteville, so he'll prove no doubt relieved to see the talent of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones nowhere on the Florida roster. Two years ago, SoCaro upset Urban Meyer in his first year, last fall, only a tremendous FG block by future NFL first-rounder (no word if he gave tOSU some of his DEN signing bonus) saved a loss at the Swamp. Look for Tebow to have a big day, as the Gators just might get a rematch with LSU after all. FLA 32 SoCaro 14

USC @ California: No, the Pac-10 title will not be won in Berkeley, absent a major upset, the Oregon Ducks will take their first crown since 2001. The Trojans, destined to go down as one of the most colossally-overrated preseason teams ever (at least FSU '93 lived up to the hype), could potentially drop their third game in the conference. For once, CAL has the best player on the field in DeSean Jackson, yet Pete Carroll (who may never receive another pro offer quite like the one at the end of last season) has bludgeoned the Bears two consecutive years, three straight wins if one includes the California domination-turned-loss in Los Angeles in 2004. The Tedfords don't quite rate with the NEBs and NDs for disappointing years, but close, and it will get worse. USC 35 CAL 27

Arkansas @ Tennessee: The Vols limped out of Fayeteville last year and if they wish to prevail in the SEC East they must avenge that loss Saturday. McFadden, with another 200 yard (or more) day, could persuade some Heisman voters that he is the best player in college football even if his team is out of the SEC race. Few teams have been as up-and-down as TEN, but the "downs" of CAL, FLA, and ALA don't augur well for the Razorback ground attack. Smiles from #5 and Urban Meyer. ARK 28 TEN 24

RT2020 Poll: Week of November 4

2007-11-04T02:57:00.000-08:00

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (NC)
4. Oklahoma (NC)
5. Missouri (+1)
6. Kansas (+1)
7. West Virginia (+2)
8. Arizona State (-3)
9. Michigan (+2)
10. Georgia (NC)
11. Auburn (+1)
12. Florida (+3)
13. Southern California (+3)
14. Connecticut (-1)
15. Virginia Tech (+3)
16. Texas (+3)
17. Arkansas (+6)
18. Boston College (-10)
19. Alabama (-5)
20. Tennessee (4)
21. California (+1)
22. Boise State (NR)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Clemson (NR)
25. Illinois (NR)

That's the end of you: South Florida, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma State

Special Mention: Navy

Still no Hawaii...

Credit to an embattled Matt Flynn and an opportunistic (if overrated) LSU defense for keeping the Tigers national title hopes very much alive. Nick Saban nearly pulled this one out after a long punt return for a touchdown, but the Bayou Bengals roared back, convincingly, and won 41-34. Barely, just barely, LSU stays #1.

Oregon impressed, but so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't quit after an avalanche of Heisman front-runner Dennis Dixon TD tosses, down 3-21, they rallied behind the splendid play of Rudy Carpenter, perhaps not 100%, and until a late fumble just after a completed deep ball (a score there would've made matters 30-35) did not go away. The better team won, as the Ducks snapped out of a two-quarter funk through hard running by All America candidate Jonathan Stewart. Of chief concern for the Ducks: the injury to their star QB. Fortunately, Oregon now has their three toughest Pac-10 tests behind them, finishing 2-1. The comparisons to LSU will go on for some time, and, yes, many people are secretly hoping a certain team falls in two weeks so they can take both to the Not Sugar.

Trailing 10-17 late in the third, it looked like the same-old same-old for Ohio State against Wisconsin--as in not enough points and another home defeat, which would have made four straight. Not this time. A riled up defense shut out the Badgers the rest of the way, and Beanie Wells and Co. (the O-line) went on a 28-0 run to ice the game. Wells is setting himself up nicely as a Heisman candidate for 2008, although, if Dixon can't play much the remainder of the season, and #28 bowls over you-know-who in two weeks, well... Todd Boeckman, as predicted here, did not play as well as last week: fortunately, he didn't need to. Still, if he plays like he did in the late first through the early fourth quarter in Ann Arbor the Bucks will lose. For the fourth time in five years, Jim Tressel's team starts 9-1 or better. Congrats, too, on breaking Michigan's Big 10 record for consecutive victories with twenty.

Speaking of UM, they're 13-1 in the last fourteen Big 10 games, as Chad Henne gutted out the performance of his career to erase a 14-24 deficit, and prove, once again, why Sparty is Sparty. Michigan State couldn't make a clutch first down and relinquished the football, alas, everyone in the building knew what would follow. As result of fewer than 130 yards and no scores, it seems the Heisman dream is over for Mike Hart. Even if H20 carries his team to a Big 10 title, it is likely not going to prove enough to take it from a quarterback. A 10-2 finish, though, would net him the prized Doak and a seat in NYC with Dixon, Tebow, and Ryan.

If Matt Ryan had a Heisman moment last week with his awesome final strike to nip Virginia Tech, his third interception definitely gave his backers something to reconsider. The BCS computers (and pollsters) had long overrated this team, which, let us remind you, struggled with the now 1-8 Irish. Ryan put up spectacular numbers, yet the average Golden Eagle defense allowed an eye-popping 450+ yards to a Florida State offense that last accomplished those numbers in a major tilt seven years ago. Yes, I had the Seminoles, and now it appeared it was only a matter of time before the new media darling crashed and burned. Can Ryan still win the Heisman? Well, it helps if Dixon can't play, but if Tebow wins the SEC title for Florida, the BC signal-caller isn't going to beat him either. We may also look back on this game as yet another national title lost for Ohio State, pending the results of their game in Michigan Stadium and bowl opponent.

The travails of Nebraska continue. While KU's 76-39 result will look like an early season hoops score, some skepticism is warranted. Sans Sam Keller, and at home, that is an awful lot of points to give up to the Huskers, and NEB only scored eight in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just a fluke game, but Missouri has a much better defense and with Chase Daniel, still a darkhorse Heisman candidate, an offense to put up forty on the Fightin' Manginos. The question now becomes, as one of only two undefeated Big Six conference teams, is whether an undefeated Kansas can creep all the way to the top two and secure a most improbable spot in the Not Sugar.

As for the Tigers, for whatever reason they ran up the score in Boulder, perhaps to send a message to the voters: we're a Top 5 team. If they can trip up unbeaten Kansas in KC then a rematch with Oklahoma and a possible national title shot awaits. It is this blogger's feeling, though, that either OU or MIZZ/KS needs a Buckeye loss to have a serious chance, even then, the pull for Oregon and LSU may prove too strong.

BCS Musings...

Ohio State, obviously, controls its own destiny. Irrespective of whatever SOS the Pac-10 and SEC champs boast, neither can ascend to #1 on their own. Despite the big points for beating previously unbeaten Arizona State, LSU will still remain ahead of Oregon in the computers, the question is whether the humans boost the Ducks in the polls from #5 to #3 or #2. If #2, I think they overtake LSU, if not, the Bayou Bengals would hold an extraordinarily tenuous margin. The wildcard is Kansas, the Jayhawks will advance to #1 in Jeff Sagarin's rankings and possibly jump from #5 to #3 in the computers, that, coupled with a predicted ascent to #6 in the polls, would give KU (6-6-3 = 5) enough to leapfrog idle West Virginia. Oklahoma does not have the computer ranking to compete for the national championship unless they somehow can secure the #2 slot in the polls. Either Oregon or LSU would jump them from #3 due to the computer ranking? Payback for the ridiculously strong OU 2003 finish in the computers that forced a rule change because it sent a team that had lost its conference title game 7-35 to the BCS Championship.

Predicted order...

1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Oregon
4) Kansas
5) Oklahoma

Heisman talk...

The plot thickens as the most interesting Heisman race in years continues to evolve. Dennis Dixon keeps my #1 vote, yet it's going to prove hard to keep him there if he plays sparingly from here on out, with coaches hoping to save him for the Rose Bowl or the Not Sugar. Matt Ryan has the numbers, yet a home loss to unranked FSU on the heels of a lucky escape in Blacksburg with no out of conference win (thanks, ND) to show for itself has to drop him back, behind Tebow, in the conversation. Great games against South Carolina, Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game would vault Tebow, a true sophomore, to the top of the list. Unfortunately for him, though, if Tennessee doesn't lose again then the Gators, despite a 59-20 win over the Vols, will not play LSU in Atlanta. Given that one SEC player has won the award since Bo Jackson, it defies logic to presume a three-loss, non-division winning team player can do so. Things would seem to set up well for Darren McFadden, but his partner-in-crime Felix Jones continues to take away the big guy's carries, scores, and spotlight. Hypothetical: 400 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and two Michigan wins. Question: is it enough for Mike Hart to claim the trophy at the last moment? Carson Palmer did do something remarkably similar in 2002. We might ask the same question of another Big 10 tailback, should Ohio State run the table.

Heisman ballot: Dixon, Tebow, Ryan, Hart, and, yes, Chris Wells

Week 10 Preview: Nearing the Home Stretch

2007-10-30T02:28:00.000-07:00

Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Yes, RT2020 has been harping on this game for the entire season, irrespective of Bucky's record, no team has given Jim Tressel's Buckeyes more trouble than U-Dub. Worse, OSU has not managed to defeat Wisconsin--at home--since, wait for it, 1996. The final score then, incidentally, read 17-14, this from one of a handful of Ohio State teams to record a +300 DELTA. On the other hand, Buckeye teams generally don't smash Penn State under the lights at Beaver Stadium, and P. J. Hill, in the same mould as Ron Dayne and Anthony Davis, may or may not go. Senator Tressel has accumulated a less-than-sterling 1-3 record against the Badgers, the lone win coming in the 2002 title season at Camp Randall. Todd Boeckman will not play that well again, yet can Wisconsin score enough? PSU throttled them a few weeks ago, still, by all means take the points. Give Ryan Petroius a clutch kick to allow the Bucks to escape. OSU 20 WIS 19

Florida State @ Boston College: Mea culpa, onside kick rule not withstanding. If I had told you in 1997 that the 'Noles could make their season with a win in Chestnut Hill ten years from now, well, you'd either stare at me incredulously or marvel how much the ACC would change (as in, conference membership). Yes, FSU still owes BC for that 41-39 upset in South Bend, but, in the present, does a decent Florida State team have any chance here? Dare we speculate, could the Golden Eagles of Matt Ryan get caught looking ahead to Clemson? I seem to recall the 'Noles winning a very similar game not long ago... FSU 17 BC 13

Louisiana State @ Alabama: Yes, this blog has long hearted LSU '07, that, however, ends if the Tigers come up short in Tuscaloosa against a good 'Bama team led by an old face. The Crimson Tide administration brought Nick Saban there to win two games above all others: this is the first. A win here sets the Tide on course to play for the SEC West crown, albeit on the Plains. For the Bayou Bengals, any slip up will doom their bid to compete for the national title at their home-away-from-home. A lot of hard hittin' is in store, LSU just makes a few more plays, somewhat like the 2005 game that ruined Alabama's season. LSU 27 ALA 20

Arizona State @ Oregon: By all rights, the game of the week, and the Heisman crucible for Dennis Dixon. With a great day the Oregon signal-caller can all but sew up the Rose Bowl (at minimum) and a seat in NYC (also a minimum). On the other side, the Sun Devils finally have to journey onside of the friendly confines of Tempe and play a real championship contender. The winner could jump LSU for #3 in the BCS, just a Buckeye or Golden Eagle "L" away from a spot in N'Orleans. The Ducks are the glamour team, with the explosiveness of Dixon and Stewart, and also the better one. Lee Corso's #1 team pulls away in the fourth quarter. ORE 33 ASU 21

Michigan @ Michigan State: Once, a very good rivalry. Lately, a utter domination by Big Brother. UM fans would consider their recent five-game winning streak to karma, as in the extra :01 magnanimously left on the clock at Spartan Stadium in 2001, allowing T. J. Duckett, he of 200+ yards on the ground, to catch a TD pass. And, yes, some in the Maize and Blue still grumble about the Desmond Howard play in 1990. Mark Dantonio has some good plays, and Javon Ringer could have a big day. On the other hand, aside from one half against OSU, Sparty has shown to possess a defense scarcely better than Minny. Ugh. Michigan's defense, emulating 1980 in the words of one hopeful blogger, has seemingly recovered from their Oregon debacle. We may also bear witness to the return of Mike Hart to the Heisman discussion, at any rate, H20 can clinch the Doak with a Perryesque performance in East Lansing. UM 45 MSU 28

Rutgers @ Connecticut: Fresh off an embarrassing thumping by West Virginia, Schiano's men trudge northward to Storrs, where the present #1 in the Big East awaits. Tired of hearing about their habitual officiating breaks, UCONN dropped USF like a bad habit last week. Suddenly, they can smell an Orange Bowl bid. Uh, no. Ray Rice and the guys will partially erase last week's humiliation and dash the Huskies conference title dream. Yes, WVA will nod approvingly. RUT 31 UCONN 13

RT2020 Poll: Week of October 28

2007-10-28T05:26:00.000-07:00

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Oregon (NC)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. Arizona State (+6)
6. Missouri (+1)
7. Kansas (+1)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. West Virginia (+3)
10. Georgia (+8)
11. Michigan (+2)
12. Auburn (+5)
13. Connecticut (NR)
14. Alabama (+8)
15. Florida (-10)
16. Southern California (-1)
17. South Florida (-11)
18. Virginia Tech (-10)
19. Texas (+1)
20. Wisconsin (NR)
21. South Carolina (-4)
22. California (-6)
23. Arkansas (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (-1)

Performances of the Week: #3 Ohio State, #10 Georgia, #8 Boston College, #5 Arizona State and #2 Oregon

End of National Title Dreams: #15 Florida (yes, that witch is FINALLY dead!), #17 South Florida, #16 USC, #18 Virginia Tech

Heartbreak: #18 Virginia Tech and #21 South Carolina

The UK Category: Kentucky

A Measure of Validation: #7 Kansas, #9 West Virginia, and #13 Connecticut

Musings...

Zero punts, 12/16 on third downs, and over four hundred total yards with just one turnover, what's that you say? Another Ohio State walk-through against in-state competition? Uh, no. How about the seventh-ranked defense of Penn State, set in the house of horrors for the OSU football team since 1997. A 37-17 whipping of the #25 BCS team at their house, thanks to Todd Boeckman's greatest game, solid running from the Wellses, and the back-breaking pick-six (two years running) by All-America Malcolm Jenkins. With this win, the Suck... err... the Bucks tied Gary Moeller's 1990-92 Wolverines for the longest Big 10 unbeaten streak, yet, as I've said since August, beware of Wisconsin next week. Still, I'm starting to believe 14-41 has kept a massive chip on Tressel's team, good.

I'm actually not going to make any Trojan jokes this week, though, since most of my picks turn out somewhere between foolish and laughable, I'll have you note that I had Oregon winning this game two months ago. USC actually played pretty well, to hold the #1 offense to fewer than thirty at Autzen is very impressive, unfortunately, Pete Carroll's much-hyped recruiting classes have not stepped in for Leinart, Bush, and White. For the first time since 2001, Southern California will not play in a BCS game, even if they run the table which would include an unlikely win in Tempe. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart looked good, but far from great, likely adding a boost to the Heisman fortunes of Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden.

LSU and Oklahoma sat and home and probably grew disappointed with the results from Blacksburg and State College. Yet, each command some tough tests before they can consider making a case for #2 (or #1, should this 1990esque campaign continue), particularly the Bayou Bengals, who had to have watched another vicious Saturday unkind to favorites in the SEC.

A tremendous job of leadership by Heisman candidate Matt Ryan down the stretch at Lane Stadium Thursday night, but my did the Hokies choke that game away and earn some enmity from locales far and wide. You simply cannot lose a ten-point lead with barely two minutes to play at home to a team you've shut out all night, yet, with the cooperation of an onside kick, that's exactly what transpired. A double-whammy for LSU, not just in the loss of key CLUTCH bonus points, but for the further BCS ranking dip of VT expected today. Is BC for real? Well, to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, they've getting real-er by the day. Death Valley awaits, however.

Meanwhile, Denny-E just keeps getting it done. Tempe is a hellish place to play, but Arizona State has to avoid continual first-half holes, particularly against Oregon and USC. The Fightin' Tedfords, perhaps one play from consensus #1, will now prove likely to remain ranked, so much for the preseason-hyped USC @ CAL game in November, what, is that now for third-place? Worth repeating: Dennis Erickson is now 27-15, all time, against the Top 25. Yes, Virginia, that is better than Rich Brooks, who probably runs a cleaner program, but obviously returned to form this week in Lexington.

Yes, the pundits said a letdown for the Cats was probably inevitable, but there is NEVER an excuse for SIX turnovers at home to an unranked team. Although, I'll say it, the SEC needs to keep their only black coach, so a great win for Syl Croom. Worse, Tennessee escaped in Knoxville later that night, that, combined with Georgia's "manning up" in the once-World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party, would've given UK an onside shot at reaching Atlanta. No more. The blog header, cribbed from "Bye-Bye Love," says it all. Disgusting. Either they looked ahead to the shinier programs and just didn't adequately prepare or they had an awful day. Critics of Rich Brooks will certainly lean in one of those two directions.

I will likely have them as preseason #1, but Urban Meyer's defense just didn't have it this year: they failed to hold down LSU with a fourth-quarter lead, didn't force a turnover at UK, and allowed a rather pedestrian Matthew Stafford to make some big-time throws. Three SEC losses spells the end of Florida's Not Sugar aspirations, though, still, running the table could get them an at-large BCS bid, if and only if the boys from Oahu trip up. Everything seems to be coming full circle, preseason crystal-balling had UK drubbed by the Dawgs in Athens, following that UGA tailback yesterday, ugh, this will not end well. What about Tebow? He played reasonably well, but can a three-loss SEC QB win the trophy when only one player from the conference (then-11-1 Danny Wuerffel in 1996) has won the award since 1986?

Brief notes... the media tried their best, but the USF bloomet officially dissipated in Storrs yesterday, as, for once, UCONN won a game without the obvious assistance from the officiating crew, very disappointing loss for a team that didn't handle prosperity well. WVA must've smiled long and big when the score came up: the Big East is theirs to lose and they're now the favorite to reach N'Orleans--only question is which week. I can't say I'm too impressed by Michigan's walloping of Div-IAA Minnesota, but the boys from Ann Arbor are creeping up near the Top 10, yet can they afford to give Henne and H20 another week off in East Lansing?

Yes, Hawaii won, and no I will not rank them.

Projected BCS Standings:

1) OSU
2) BC
3) LSU
4) ORE
5) OU (ASU breathing down their necks)

Heisman ballot:

1) Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE= He got his team through USC, another big one soon
2) Darren McFadden, RB, ARK= Welcome back, a win over LSU might win it for him
3) Matt Ryan, QB, BC= Biggest Heisman moment of the season thus far
4) Tim Tebow, QB, FLA= MUST win out to arrive in Atlanta and beat LSU
5) Mike Hart, RB, MICH= #20 needs two huge games in his last two to swipe it

OUT: Andre' Woodson, QB, UK; DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL

Darkhorses: Chase Daniel, QB, MIZZ; Todd Boeckman, QB, OSU(???), Patrick White, QB, WVA

Just for fun...

FIVE BEST OSU TEAM PERFORMANCES OF MY VIEWING LIFETIME (1993-pres)

2007, 37-17 over PSU in State College
1996, 38-6 over PSU in Columbus
1998, 34-17 over WVA in Morgantown
2006, 24-7 over TEX in Austin
2004, 37-21 over UM in Columbus

Week 9 Preview: The First One Now Will...

2007-10-22T05:50:00.000-07:00

Later be Last? Yes, I see the times a-changin for some current conference leaders this weekend - the most important collection of games thus far. More and more dough is accumulating at the center of the table. Time to see who's for real.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech: Look, I know Ohio State's schedule is less than arduous, but the computers, sans Billingsley, must've given BC credit for defeating '93 ND instead of the '07 version. What have they done??? How are they rated ahead of LSU? I hope Mr. Edwards will let me know later today, nonetheless... the Hokies have a history of flopping in big-time home night tilts in the last few years, namely to Pittsburgh and Miami. How good is Virginia Tech? Neither of these teams has impressed me, but absent a Heisman day from Matt Ryan, the Golden Eagles will return to Chesnut Hill with a blemish. VT 24 BC 14

Ohio State @ Penn State: RT2020 has gone back and forth on this one. This Nittany Lion edition is less imposing than 2005 yet better than 2003, need I remind you which contest OSU won in Happy Valley. The OSU offense, however, significantly rated better then (2005) as opposed to now, save for perhaps at tailback. PSU has some speed on the outside, but, check the records, they haven't scored twenty points on the Bucks since 2001. In other words, they don't frighten me. What does scare me is Todd Boeckman reprising his performance from the 2H of last week. If OSU doesn't turn it over, they could win easily--their defense is playing that well and Anthony Morelli has yet to justify the #14 jersey to them. Yeah, but White Out II will end poorly nonetheless, another title shot buried beneath an abundance of sacks and critical turnovers plus one PSU big-gainer. Get ready to chortle, Mr. Maisel. PSU 27 OSU 13

California @ Arizona State: I have no idea how good the Sun Devils are and neither does anyone else, of course, I'm not sure what beating the once-formidable Bears would do for their reputation anyway. Here is what I do know: DeSean Jackson is the best player on the field, and it wasn't his fault the Tedfords fell to the Bruins last week. Night games in Tempe, however, can turn into nightmares: look no further than Nebraska, circa 1996, when they still rated as a national power. Also, for all his foibles, Denny-K wins big games. ASU 34 CAL 31 OT

USC @ Oregon: My, these battles just keep on coming. Pete Carroll has owned Mike Belloti for the better part of a decade, a supposedly tough quarrel at Autzen in 2005 quickly degenerated after recess into another walk-through for the GREATEST TEAM EVER! This time, with Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, Oregon has the better offense if not the best in the nation. After all, Michigan's defense has clamped down since their 7-32 debacle, and may run the board in the Big 10. Yet, whether with Mark Sanchez or John David Booty, this is a made-to-order game for the Trojans. A win here puts them in a position to claim another conference championship at Tempe. Can they score enough points? Will Oregon make enough mistakes? Is my #2 team the genuine article? Yeah. ORE 41 USC 28

West Virginia @ Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights aren't a particularly good team (read: the MD game), but they are nasty in Piscataway. Last year, the Schianos blew a conference title in the closing seconds over a dispirited WVA team mostly going through the motions in Morgantown. Patrick White looked very good last week against competition that defeated Auburn and looks to lead the Mountaineers back to the Sugar Bowl. WVA 30 RUT 24

Kansas @ Texas A&M: Aggie Nation believed a small sign of relief with their second half dismantling of the once-powerful Nebraska program, yet a win here could guarantee yet another year for one of the oiliest men in the coaching fraternity, Denny-F, who still doesn't understand he is where he is because of LaDainian Tomlinson. In any event, the Fightin' Mangioes boast a vicious defense and just claimed a nice road win in Boulder. Yet, are they ready for the Twelfth Man in College Station? Survey says... no. TAMU 27 KS 19

South Florida @ Connecticut: After failing to show maturity last Thursday night, the Bulls can show that they're not going to allow a conference title to slip away--yet it's another tough road games, against, that's right, the #1 team in the Big East, fresh off a controversial win over the ineptitude that is the U of L post-Petrino. UCONN is a long way to travel for the disappointed once-#2s, good thing Jim Leavitt gets to take all that speed with him up north. USF 23 UCONN 20

Florida @ Georgia: All of sudden, yep, that sound you just heard is of the irrepressible Urban Meyer busily running the accounting machine on just how he can maneuever the Gators back to the Not Sugar discussion. Having Tim Tebow, my Heisman front-runner, assists that mission. Playing UGA, a team FLA has owned for more than a decade, ditto. America's top college coach has still not lost a game to the Hard Triangle (UGA, TEN, FSU) and with more fireworks from #15 the Mighty Gators might roll to fitty again. FLA 47 UGA 21

South Carolina @ Tennessee: Will the OBC recover against the coach he's tormented over the years? Phil Fulmer got some satisfaction from last year's decisive win in Columbia, yet his team is reeling after another embarrassing conference loss--again to a huge rival. Plus, it has been nine loooong years (and counting) since Rocky Top last held the SEC crown. Fear the Vols, however, as an underdog, something the Dawgs learned all too well last year. Erik Ainge, while not all-conference worthy, is still a better bet than the 'Cocks have, and no, Mr. Meyer will not like this result. TEN 26 SoCaro 23

If you're scoring at home, or as Olbermann once had it, even if you're alone, RT2020 sees the #1 team in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East all slipping up, mostly because three of them play away from home. Despite their ghastly #14 computer ranking, Oklahoma would jump right back into the national title game picture if such a scenario came to pass.

Heisman Watch: Tebow (up), Dixon (up), Jackson (up), and Ryan (down)

Projected BCS Standings (Oct 28):

1) LSU
2) Oregon
3) Arizona State
4) Oklahoma
5) Virginia Tech

And...

8) Florida

Aaaaarrrrrgggggghhhhh... their stranglehold on the money-making NCAA sports national titles may not yet have concluded. Should you perceive my ratcheting up of Gator hype and increased Tebow for Heisman cheerleading as some pitiful and ultimately in vain reverse psychology ploy, well... why the cynicism???

RT2020 Poll: Week of October 21

2007-10-21T01:43:00.000-07:00

1. Louisiana State (+1)
2. Oregon (+3)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Florida (+3)
6. South Florida (-5)
7. Missouri (+3)
8. Kansas (+6)
9. Virginia Tech (+4)
10. Boston College (-3)
11. Arizona State (NC)
12. West Virginia (+3)
13. Michigan (+4)
14. Kentucky (-2)
15. Southern California (-3)
16. California (-7)
17. South Carolina (-14)
18. Georgia (+4)
19. Auburn (-3)
20. Texas (+3)
21. Penn State (-2)
22. Alabama (NR)
23. Virginia (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (+1)
25. Rutgers (NR)

Ugliness Returneth: #20 Tennessee

Immaturity: #3 South Carolina and #9 California

Unimpressive: #4Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State

Stealthily Rising: #5 Oregon and #14 Kansas

Brief commentary...

Well, I guess I need another number one team, no? Virtually all prognosticators had South Florida going down in Piscataway, and that's exactly what occurred. Ray Rice was phenomenal, and Coach Schiano's special teams made some huge plays. Funny thing is, I don't think USF is going to fall that far: their wins over Auburn and West Virginia continue to impress, perhaps more importantly, South Carolina, Kentucky, and California fell and Oklahoma and Ohio State didn't impress.

That leaves us with just the Bucks, Boston College, Kansas, and Arizona State, and the Sun Devils dance with the Ducks next week, OSU will receive a rude welcome next week in State College, and the Golden Eagles must journey to Blacksburg quite soon. The Jayhawks made some strides today in Boulder, doing something not even OU could do.

A word about Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow and his duel with UK's Andre' Woodson: both players accounted for five touchdowns and no turnovers in one of the cleanest offensive duels in recent memory. Florida made just a few more key stops and converted enough third downs to stop the 'Cats in Lexington, again, for the 21st consecutive time. Who had the better day as a signal-caller? Tebow earned the victory on the road whereas Woodson faced a better defense with less talent around him. Tossup. Is Florida truly out of it? Suddenly (shudder, shudder) I'm not as certain. I do know SoCaro did them no favors with a spectacular stinkbomb against Vandy in Columbia. The Gators now control their own destiny en route to defending their SEC crown.

The Buckeyes were going along swimmingly, 24-0 and heading across midfield when Todd Boeckman sought to remind us that he is not Troy Smith with a pair of turnovers that gave MSU their only two touchdowns. Take heed: Smith's INT in Beaver Stadium two years set up the Nittany Lions first touchdown and ensured the tone of what became a 17-10 win. Chris Wells, however, looked quite good albeit against a suspect Spartan front. OSU can validate their #1 ranking next Saturday night.

As for Cal, well, nighty-night, what a waste of a win at Autzen. Some prognosticators felt they were the Top 10 team most likely to bounce back, yet a loss to a UCLA team that floundered against, yes, Notre Dame. I still can't get the 6-44 whupping administered by Utah, either, so no ranking yet, even if they are tied for first in the Pac-10. Oklahoma looks in firm control of its bowl destination, if they win out to finish with only the Colorado defeat, their pedigree will elevate them over the two Big East schools and perhaps a one-loss Pac-10 champ. On the other hand, yesterday's 17-7 far-too-close-for-comfort triumph over Iowa State proved the second straight lackluster effort. Although, Missouri's beatdown of a previously unstoppable Red Raider offense boosts the Sooner cause.

USC nearly made me a prophet in South Bend, yet I'm not ready to annoint the Trojans the favorite in a seemingly wide-open Pac-10, though, admittedly, the road tilts at Eugene and Tempe are made-to-order USC games. Ironically enough, an underdog Cal team waiting for them in Berkeley could prove the game to overlook--the other two will almost certainly decide the Rose Bowl participant. We'll find out which team is most apt to challenge the Trojans next week.

The biggest thing to take away from this week is that South Florida's quest for a national title shot may not be over after all. With sufficient support from the computers and a semi-sympathetic poll number, the Bulls should not fall from the top five when the new standings are released today. Predicted order: OSU, BC, LSU, ORE, and OU.

Heisman ballot: Tebow, Woodson, Dixon, Jackson, Hart

Undefeated Suckeyes: Guaranteed Shot?

2007-10-15T14:21:00.000-07:00

Oops, pardon my imitation of the college football world less than pleased at the prospect of another appearance by The Ohio State University in a BCS Championship Game. The Buckeyes, as last year, debuted at #1 in the BCS Standings, due to their strength over South Florida in the polls, which, essentially, owes to their higher preseason ranking (#11).

RT2020 just listened to an ESPNU College Football Insider podcast where renowned BCS guru Brad Edwards asserted that OSU is the only team that controls their own destiny. My point here is not to agree or disagree with his numbers, absent multiple escapes (and then even then, remember 2002?) it would prove quite difficult for TWO teams to vault over #1. You may recall 1995, when #1 Florida State gradually lost support to a surging Nebraska team later to finish as one of the all time greats before getting passed... on the eve of their ACC tilt in Charlottesville. Or the year prior, when a closer-than-expected win in Bloomington cost #1 Penns State dearly (or their game at Illinois, or their non-conference schedule, natch), yet under today's rules, they would've played for it all. That is clearly Edwards's point: for this season, reminiscient of 1990 (not 2001, Miami stayed in the Top 3 all season), envisioning two teams to suddenly leave the rest in the dust seems quite unlikely.

So, Ohio State would play for the national title if they can finish 12-0. Question: is that fair? For the purposes of Part I of this exercise, I'm going to assume a vaccum, in other words, no consideration is given to the undefeated or one-loss teams challenging the Buckeyes for a spot. As stated elsewhere on this blog, I have a bias toward the OSU football program, originating, like many, from filial piety. You might think you know where I'm headed, unless you closely checked my last poll. I have Ohio State at #6, only several BCS computers would agree with that. Yet, I also have a keener understanding than most scribes of the program, specifically its tendencies and history.

In a less-than-veiled disparagement of Ohio State's return to numero uno, ESPN.com senior writer Ivan Maisel used, literally, flowery imagery to describe OSU's schedule, today and last year. This brings me to the EVEN YEAR/ODD YEAR dichotomy present at several big-time schools. Whether by design or otherwise, every even year, since 1996 (more on that in a moment), the table is set for a national championship run, observe:

1996: 11-1
1998: 11-1
2000: 8-4
2002: 14-0
2004: 8-4
2006: 12-1

Aggregate: 64-11 (.853), not too shabby as the old line would proclaim. Twice, in 2000 and 2004 the Buckeyes underachieved, though the former team had a very high ranking until an embarrassing loss to Ron Johnson... err... Minnesota. Four of six times, OSU has entered November with ZERO losses on its resume, now, our corollary:

1995: 11-2
1997: 10-3
1999: 6-6
2001: 7-5
2003: 11-2
2005: 11-2

Aggregate: 56-20 (.737), still very good, yet nearly fourteen percentage points off their even-year mark. Now, we pose the query, just where do you think those "extra" losses come from? Satirists raising their hands to point out TEN '95, FSU '97 (each a third-place finisher), we will ignore you.

Again:

1996: 1-1
1998: 2-0
2000: 1-1
2002: 2-0
2004: 2-0
2006: 2-0

Aggregate: 10-2

1995: 1-1
1997: 0-2
1999: 0-2
2001: 1-1
2003: 1-1
2005: 1-1

Aggregate: 4-8

Big difference, you bet! Just two guesses as to which opponents are alluded to in the preceding chart: yep, Michigan and Penn State. OSU's travails in Ann Arbor have been well-documented: since 1969, the arrival of Bo Schembechler to Michigan, the Buckeyes have won in 1975, 1979, 1981, 1987, 2001, and 2005, adding a tie in 1973. Six wins, and well, a whole lot of losses. What is less well known is the dubious history at Beaver Stadium, not counting the 1994 blowout, the Nittany Lions of Penn State have beaten the Bucks in 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1997--four of the last five, and had a long field goal attempt to win the other game.

Since 1996, Ohio State's schedule has always featured both Penn State and Michigan at home in even years and on the road in odd years. Given that home field in college football may mean more than any other major sport, no small thing. You will notice two things about the last ODD-YEAR chart: one, John Cooper amassed (if that is the right word) a glistening 1-5 mark in those contests; two, for all of his success, in three tries Jim Tressel has failed to guide his team to a road sweep of UM and PSU. The locations of these two contests have led my father to place OSU's chances of running the table at below 25%. Just a fact to throw out there, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin... and have succumbed to defeat, on the banks of the Ohentangy, the last three times they've played 'em with the scarlet jerseys. Alvarez magic? We'll see.

We must now consider the possibility that neither Penn State nor Michigan will post 6-2 Big 10 seasons, indeed, if OSU beats PSU next week, the Lions would have to win out to finish 5-3. Michigan, unblemished in conference play, could roll in somewhere near the Top 10 at 7-0, yet roadies in Champaign, East Lansing, and Madison still await. The question, insofar as the Buckeyes will not have a signature non-conference win absent a Washington revival that begins with an upset of Oregon, is whether beating BOTH Penn State and Michigan on the road--something they've never done--is that great of an achievement if PSU loses perhaps another Big 10 game, so as to finish 4-4, and Michigan loses one or two more before the Third Saturday in November finale. Worse, that would make UM a FIVE-loss team at worst.

Best Case Scenario: PSU wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 5-3 and Michigan wins out, save for a loss to OSU, finishing 7-1. At minimum, defeating an otherwise two-loss team in State College and another otherwise two-loss team in Michigan would look great on the resume. UM might finish 15th or higher, PSU would stay in the Top 25. A 12-2 aggregate in non-OSU Big 10 games would yield much respect to the besieged Bucks, at present observing constant hints in the press of a certain twenty-seven-point defeat last January. Twelve and two, however, is unlikely. We'll assign another conference loss to PSU and one to Michigan: does 10-4 look as good for a feather in your cap?

Let's say you don't apply extra weight for OSU accomplishing the elusive Daily Double, what about just hard numbers, which scrutinize the quality of one's road and neutral site wins. Thus, Part II...

If we applied my Clutch formula, conveniently located here (scroll down), OSU is already in deep trouble, relative to other championship-contending teams. Washington continues to feel the burden of their schedule, Purdue appears headed for three conference losses or more, Minnesota does not strike one as likely to finish even 3-5, and only two road games remain for Ohio State. Without question, it doesn't take much in the way of Big 10 mediocrity to send OSU to the title game with the worst Clutch score of the modern era, even worse than their collective CIN-NWSTRN-WIS-PUR-ILL slate of 2002. True, teams also receive bonus points for winning against otherwise unbeatens, but the collapse of Big 10's other three has rendered that impossible.

Expected OSU Clutch total: 0.01 for WSH, .01 for Minnesota, 0.01 for Purdue, 0.02 for Penn State, 0.02 for Michigan = 0.07, possibly 0.08 or 0.09 if things fall right.

Others...

South Florida would receive the 0.05, but only if West Virginia wins all the rest of their games, yet could also warrant a 0.03 (otherwise .800 record) if Auburn posts a strong finish. Boston College will find itself in the same position as Ohio State, you will have to look deep for a big road win. LSU has 0.100 for its wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, yet does not figure to have another shot for big points until the SEC Championship, when, per the rule, the points are halved--and they would need UK because they've already beaten Florida and the 'Cocks for full value. The odds, though, of VT and SoCaro finishing without another blemish are quite long, and one more loss to both slashes LSU's "big" total from 0.100 to 0.00. The lack of a quality road win also dents the Tigers. The Holy Grail, of course, is a road win over an otherwise unbeaten, e.g. Stanford, 2001 or Michigan State, (ick) 1998. For that win, teams receive 0.08, or 0.065 if at a neutral site/bowl game. Memo to media types: don't get that impressed by a team that wins its home games, they're supposed to do that!

Which brings us to the Pac-10, and first to California, as they currently have the .080 for winning at Autzen, statistically the most impressive win of the season thus far. Their loss to Oregon State, at home, did not cost them key points in this category. Nor was USC affected... except for the unlikely-just-weeks-ago development that neither the Ducks nor the Golden Bears will be undefeated when they come calling. For Cal, an Oregon "W" over USC is crucial as is an undefeated finish. Likewise, Oklahoma needs Kansas to remain without an "L" for as long as possible. LSU's total, though, assuming they can win their final road games and capture the SEC would dwarf Ohio State's... but only if either the Hokies or the Gamecocks don't lose again. We can easily see the difficulty of SoCaro remaining unbeaten--LSU would get credit for beating them on a neutral field (see: OU'00 over K-State) but a VT loss would diminish their credentials.

If Louisiana State wins out and so does Virginia Tech, then the Tigers would certainly have my vote even over an undefeated Ohio State team with wins at otherwise 5-2 PSU and 7-0 Michigan. If California wins out and so does Oregon, then the Bears would deserve to go over a 12-0 Ohio State team--especially if the Bears are the one, and only one, to pick off Arizona State. Thus Oregon still remains alive because they have a chance to do the same thing in the full schedule of the Pac-10. USC, possibly, with a road sweep of the three best Pac-10 teams could vault to #1, earning .03, .03, and .08. What seems quite clear, however, is that no one in the country is in any position to challenge the '71 Huskers for the all-time clutch title, earned in Norman and Miami. Just last autumn, prior to the Ohio State game, Michigan had carded a 0.08 over Notre Dame and 0.05 over Wisconsin, in addition to their road wins at Penn State, Indiana, etc, and a win over the Bucks would have netted them ANOTHER 0.08, for a temporary score over 0.210... until the defeat of Notre Dame and any number of other developments in the bowl season. USC made a similar challenge in 2005.

Ultimately, if Ohio State's Clutch rating is somehow first or second, they not only should play for the national title, but no one should have any gripes about it. None. A Pac-10 team and LSU are two favorites, yet points have been known to disappear in a heartbeat... just ask FLA'96, about the 0.05 they lost from beating Tennessee in Knoxville, just because the Vols flopped in Memphis, of all places, later that year. 0.08 became 0.03, and a chance at the #1 all time ranking went with it.

Week 8 Preview: Beat-a-bull?

2007-10-15T08:25:00.001-07:00

South Florida @ Rutgers: Welcome to the national championship chase, USF. If the season ended today, the Bulls would play for it all. Alas, it does not, and worse for the highest-ranked team from Florida, key games are on the horizon. Thursday night is such a test... and the eyes of the football world will rest on Piscataway, NJ. #2 comes to town with a stingy defense and some opportunistic playmaking. Louisville helped deny Ohio State a national championship with a memorable loss under similar circumstances last year. RT2020 says USF is currently #1, but Ray Rice and Company will prove undefeated a bridge too far, RUT 25 USF 20 in the upset.

Michigan State @ Ohio State: The last time the Bucks quarreled with Sparty as #1 at the 'Shoe, well, that 24-28 debacle remains one of the darker games in school history. A more recent reminder? How about MSU rolling through an overrated OSU defense two years ago only to lose because Troy Smith's short passes turned into huge plays for Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, Jr. Well, and that ill-fated Spartan field goal attempt to close the first half, chuckle, chuckle. I'm not persuaded the Brians are quite on the level of past stars, and far from sold on Todd Boeckman. Nonetheless, despite MSU's possible All-Big 10 tailback, this defense is nasty. Look for Sparty to surprise Ohio State, and if Beanie Wells can't go then this game will go four quarters. The Buckeyes can't afford to look past this one to the White Out game next Saturday night. They won't, OSU 31 MSU 23

Auburn @ LSU: Bayou Bengals, over the past two weeks you've gone the distance against two Heisman Trophy candidates, with a 1-1 mark for your efforts. Reduced to #4 in the BCS, War Eagle and their underrated defense awaits you. Tommy Tuberville's record in big games is extremely impressive, and, undermanned, AUB beat star-studded LSU last year. Will anyone score a touchdown in this game? The men from the Plains would take control of the division with a "W" at the Rouge, too bad they're the second part of Louisiana State's revenge tour. LSU 16 AUB 3

Oregon @ Washington: The Huskies, burdened by the toughest schedule in the country, receive no better this weekend in the form of exciting (save to Michigan fans) Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Duck offensive machine. Oregon had best take care, however, to avoid looking ahead to USC, and take care of business under the lights of Seattle. They know what happened to California in Berkeley last week and know the road to at least Pasadena (Big 10 groans heard all over) is wide open and theirs for the taking, if they win out and Cal drops another game. U-Dub is going to be quite good, but they're not ready yet. ORE 43 WSH 21

Florida @ Kentucky: After the confetti has been retrieved from Commonwealth, it's time for Andre' Woodson and the gutsy Cats to erase yet more heartache from the annals, not that the duel collapses of 1993 and 2003 to the Mighty Gators will ever vanish. Still smarting over consecutive narrow defeats to bitter adversaries, and having had a week to stew in Gainesville, RT2020 fully expects Tim Tebow to come out firing in this one. Fortunately, the Gators don't have a conventional running attack, which could allow a few UK plays in the secondary to make the difference. If Woodson has a 60%, 250, and at least two score game, he is the CLEAR Heisman frontrunner. Then the Cats would have to hope Urban Meyer can guide a three-loss Florida team past the 'Cocks. We could see some points here, hope the team is rested and ready, UK 41 FLA 34 OT

Mississippi State @ West Virginia: An interesting non-conference clash for the Mountaineers, whose schedules have raised eyebrows for years. Obviously, should Rutgers win on Thursday, WVA will come in sky-high for this one. Sylvester Croom is in need of a signature win to beat back the doubters and critics, and the once-vaunted Mountaineer offense is missing some wheels. Can Pat White make it through? What about the once-Heisman candidate Steve Slaton? SEC players are faster and tougher too, nah. WVA 31 MSU 15

USC @ Notre Dame: Beano Cook, among others, has called this cross-sectional rivalry the best in America. Suffice to say, 2007 is not 2005, let alone 1988 or 1974. Somehow, despite lackluster efforts at the Coliseum, USC is not out of national title chase, wins over ORE, ASU, and Cal would probably have them well on Oklahoma's BCS heels. Meanwhile, a 1-6 Irish team is looking for something, anything, to remember this season by. I think we should raise expectations for the genius Charlie Weis, this Trojan team is a shell of its former self, so a standard USC whipping should draw the ire of Domer nation. Is it still too late for Mark Sanchez to enter the Heisman race? 65%, 350, and 4 says no, in this strange season, USC 45 ND 0

Texas Tech @ Missouri: Give the Tigers credit, they fought OU till the end. Nonetheless, their dreams of an unbeaten season have been dashed and now the high-scoring Red Raiders travel to Columbia. Absent a tough loss to the Pokes, Mike Leach's team has posted quite an impressive start with one of the most exciting playmakers in the country. A non-division game, it nonetheless is crucial to the black-and-gold helmets remaining nationally viable. Their defense has dominated at home, will that continue, no, but good enough. Bounce-back for Chase Daniel too, MIZZ 34 TT 23

Kansas @ Colorado: Jayhawks, the Sooners flopped here, will you? The lone undefeated team from the Big 12 has grabbed everyone's attention in the rough terrain, but how much longer can the Fightin' Manginos keep it rolling. Winner takes a big step toward a bout with OU for the conference title. This one is in Boulder, however, and that spells uh oh for the guys from Lawrence. COL 28 KU 21

Michigan @ Illinois: The thunderous noise you just heard was the sound of many a pundit jumping off the Zook-Mendenhall-Williams bandwagon in the face of an embarrassing 6-10 loss at Kinnick. Yes, embarrassing, as Iowa football is not what it was several years ago: it was their first win in nine Big 10 games. Chad Henne, though, is fully recovered from his injury and the question of Mike Hart's ankle is of only marginal concern. The Illini do have some athletes that could cause UM some concern, but nothing that a few well-timed bombs to the still-in-the-doghouse(?) Mario Mannigham won't cure. The Illini defeat last week reduces the scope of this game, but with another 30/150/2, H20 rumbles along, not close. UM 30 ILL 10

Miami @ Florida State: Yawn. FSU 23 MIA 20

Virginia @ Maryland: Believe it or not, a key ACC clash. The Terps and the Cavaliers should stage a good one at College Park, and the winner looks to have the inside track to challenging Boston College for conference supremacy. Be advised, however, that the ACC is by far the weakest of the Big Six, hey, even Hawaii could win... three games in that league. Go with the home team in a small upset. MD 27 UVA 23

Heisman Stock: Dixon (up), Woodson (up), Tebow (down), Hart (up)

RT2020 Poll: Week of October 14

2007-10-14T15:39:00.000-07:00

1. South Florida (+4)
2. Louisiana State (-1)
3. South Carolina (+1)
4. Oklahoma (+2)
5. Oregon (+4)
6. Ohio State (-3)
7. Boston College (NC)
8. Florida (NC)
9. California (-7)
10. Missouri (+1)
11. Arizona State (+7)
12. KENTUCKY!!!!! (+6)
13. Virginia Tech (+3)
14. Kansas (+5)
15. West Virginia (-5)
16. Auburn (+6)
17. Michigan (+3)
18. Southern California (-6)
19. Penn State (NR)
20. Tennessee (+4)
21. Maryland (DNP)
22. Georgia (+3)
23. Texas (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Oklahoma State (NR)

Ugliness abounds: #13 (told ya so) Cincinnati, #14 (rush to leave that bandwagon) Illinois, #15 Florida State, and #21 (where'd the D go) Wisconsin

Poise? What poise?: #1 LSU, #2 California, and #12 USC

Yes, I suppose we have to rank you: #24 (ugly road win) Hawaii and #19 Penn State

Unbeaten only due to schedule: #6 Ohio State and #7 Boston College

Well, then... Our deepest thanks, Lones Seiber, wow.

Are you prepared to wake up in a college football world with Ohio State leading the BCS Standings??? What is this, 2006 all over again? No, safely, Florida has two defeats. More Top 5 shakeup on this... the second full weekend in October.

Yes, I still have LSU at #1. They lost only in triple OT, albeit to an inferior team, on the road. They still have wins over Virginia Tech and Florida. That having been said... YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY erased a double-digit halftime lead on the nation's best defense, forced OT, made an especially clutch field goal to force the third session, and... a defense that had been gashed all day on the ground held LSU to nine yards on four carries when it mattered most. The Bayou Bengals don't deserve to fall off the top spot, not with Cal pulling a Tedford--at home to an unranked but talented Oregon State squad. I am thisclose to putting South Florida numero uno (wins at Auburn and against West Virginia), but not yet... oh, all right. The Bulls also callously ran up the score on Central Florida, unaware that now all they have to do is win out to improbably reach N'Orleans for the Not-Sugar. FOX executives, swallow USF v. BC!

Why does an admitted OSU partisan drop the Bucks after a forty-five point win? How about getting outrushed at home by a MAC team? Nitpicking? What does the OSU line think Rashad Mendenhall is going to do, let alone Mike Hart? Yes, the scoring defense remains second to none, but we saw this last year. Win at State College, over the resurgent Nittany Lions, and then I will start to buy into another BCS bowl appearance. On the other hand, what do we know about Boston College? A decent victory under the once-Golden Dome (yeah, I missed this game) against a 1-5 Irish team that struggles to get out of their own way. Matt Ryan, in the absence of a superior performance, has a real shot at not just reaching New York City...

Good job by the Sooners as well, though, not as impressive as I would have thought. Sam Bradford is going to have an outside shot at representing OU at the big ceremony, even if the Oklahoma schedule becomes easier due to the lack of another Big 12 power. Chase Daniel and the Missouri Tigers are a very good team, and may have a chance to upset the BCS title game picture in the Big 12 Championship, except that Kansas looms. That's right, only the Jayhawks remain undefeated, and as for Nebraska, well, perhaps the less said the better (housed, in Lincoln, by thirty-one). What is this, 1995? Er, we wouldn't have seen the Okie State result in 1995...

I suppose Mark Sanchez and the USC Trojans earn minimal points for perservering through a 20-13 hard slog against Arizona, check that, no they don't. Is this not a team headed for defeat in Eugene, Tempe, and Berkeley? True, all of those qualify as USC signature games, but their offense has posted just forty-three points, with a net margin of six, in their last two home games against "meh" opposition. Yet, if they can find a way to win out, well, let's not discuss the possibility of a team that lost to Stanford at home playing for all the marbles.

Can I rank Auburn even higher? Two losses says I cannot, even though they stifled once-Heisman favorite Darren McFadden and his partner-in-crime Felix Jones. Watch out at the Rouge, LSU. That game will decide the SEC West. Can UK actually win the SEC East? Sure, just defeat Tebow-led Florida at Commonwealth next week and hope the Gators can upset (strange verb, no?) South Carolina in Columbia. In other words, play better there than the Cats recently did, ick.

Very, very quietly, Oregon has returned to the national title game picture, ditto West Virginia. A win by the Ducks over the Trojans would place Dennis Dixon in definite Heisman consideration, assuming that, in the nation's toughest conference (sorry, SEC) Oregon can get through without another loss. Speaking of the mighty Pac-10, you had the Sun Devils as their last undefeated team, right? Of course. The oily Denny Erickson, traveling man, somehow has his team on the doorstep of Top 10 status. Indeed, the AP voters may well put them there now. Can they beat USC when it matters? Stay tuned...

Is it too late to discount Michigan from the national title race? Yes. We're not at the point where a team can lose 7-39 in their crib and recover that significantly, but my are we headed in that direction. The more things change in the Big 10 (adding a team, utilization of the spread offense) the more they stay the same: OSU @ Michigan for the Big 10 title, winner loses the big bowl game thereafter, natch.

Lastly, in the unquestioned game of the day, the Rich Brooks for SEC Coach of the Year bus shifted out of second gear, I realize at this point my resistance is futile. Woodson didn't have his best game, yet he made no crucial errors in the second half and his defense combined with LSU's foolish happy-passing resulted in the program's biggest football win since 1964 and probably second only to the toppling of unbeaten Oklahoma to close the 1950 campaign. The Tigers never seem to play well in Lexington, yet, finally, they got bit in the Bluegrass!!!

Snapshot Heisman ballot: Andre' Woodson, Mike Hart, Tim Tebow, Matt Ryan, and Sam Bradford. #1 v. #3 next week in Lexington, H20 should go next week in Champaign. Woodson needs ten wins, Hart needs a Big 10 title w/ a victory over Ohio State, Tebow needs an SEC Championship, and Ryan needs to go undefeated.

Week 7 Preview: Maturity Saturday

2007-10-08T10:56:00.000-07:00

LSU @ Kentucky: The Bayou Bengals swing north after a euphoric SEC-defining victory over the Florida Gators and their possible Heisman Trophy winner, whereas the Cats, well, stank in Columbia, and lost their embryonic national championship hopes in a blizzard of bad turnovers. Louisiana State controls their own destiny, yet, in a theme of this week, do they have the maturity to go on the road and beat-up a talented UK offense that won't make as many mistakes at home? Yes, because this is the best team in college football, and they're eyeing a date with Oklahoma, close, for awhile, LSU 31 UK 20, as Kentucky needed to play this one at night.

Boston College @ Notre Dame: My, how the tables have turned. Remember 2002? No, what about 1993 and the epic battle ended by David Gordon's right foot? Not so coincidentally, ND has not regained their mystique since that 41-39 loss, but beating the Golden Eagles--unbeaten but relatively untested--would go a ways to restoring Domer pride. Does BC have the maturity to walk onto hallowed ground (cue the NBC music) and overwhelm an improving Irish? Long accustomed to playing the underdog in this genuninely good series, BC now is undefeated and with a Heisman candidate, ND 19 BC 17, wake up the echoes.

Missouri @ Oklahoma: The Big 12 Championship will prove won at the end of this tilt. Well, I suppose Mizz has two shots at the Sooners, but this is another test for Sam Bradford after skillfully upending once-relevant Texas last week. Can the Sooners roll over another key foe for the second straight week? Maturity, gentlemen. USC is finished as a national title contender, and their slot is now reserved for the Sooners. Sure, the Tigers thrashed the 'Huskers, but more importantly they beat a good Illinois team. The challenge here is not to allow a whipping, OU 55 MIZZ 14 to ruin their fast start, they'll see these guys again.

South Carolina @ North Carolina: A tricky matchup for the rolling 'Cocks in the middle of the SEC race. Butch Davis and the Heels just popped Miami in Chapel Hill next week. SoCaro brings a similar defense and a less-prone-to-mistakes quarterback. UNC is coming, possibly next year, but the 'Cocks get out alive, closer than most would forecast, SoCaro 24 UNC 14

Louisville @ Cincinnati: A very dangerous game for the Bearcats, likely quite pleased with themselves after vanquishing Rutgers. Despite their collapse against Kentucky, colossal upset to Syracuse, and general ineptitude against the Utes... Brian Brohm can still put the ball in the air, and the U of L can still put up the points. At 3-3, this is the last chance for Louisville to begin to salvage their season, as a beatdown in Morgantown looms. LOU 37 CIN 34, if CIN can hold down Brohm, their defense is for real and BCS bowl-worthy.

Auburn @ Arkansas: Think War Eagle might recollect the events of last year, if not, still images of Darren McFadden rumbling through the line and smashing the national title hopes of then-#2 Auburn are readily available. The Tigers still must meet LSU at the Rouge, yet their defense will face a supreme challenge in slowing down D-Mac and Felix Jones. Another Heisman-type day for #5, but the lack of consistency from the quarterback position gives this one away, AUB 23 ARK 21

Texas A&M @ Texas Tech: We don't have that much reason to believe in the Aggies, as that ill-fated trip to Coral Gables rendered a few weeks ago, on the other hand, at 5-1 and 2-0 in the Big 12, they must begin to receive serious consideration as a possible division contender. They get Texas at home, leaving only Oklahoma... and Texas Tech for South supremacy. An uneven team, they are precisely the kind most vulnerable to an ambush from "Basketball on Grass," TT 45 A&M 31

Purdue @ Michigan: Both teams had the schedules to make this one a Top 10 battle, yet a combined three embarrassing performances has left this battle wanting. The Boilers boast an offensive juggernaut of 45.0 ppg and four hundred plus... oh, that was before the Ohio State game? Silly me. Michigan's defense has had issues in four of their six contests, which could make this one more interesting than PU's recent history at the Big House suggests. Not, however, if Mike Hart has anything to say about it. MICH 41 PU 20, hope it's worse than that.

To recap...

Mature and focused: LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Auburn, and Michigan
Ripe for the picking: Boston College, Cincinnati, and Texas A@M

We didn't forget USC's game against 'Zona, did we?

RT2020 Poll: Week of October 7

2007-10-07T00:21:00.000-07:00

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. California (+1)
3. Ohio State (+2)
4. South Carolina (+5)
5. South Florida (-1)
6. Oklahoma (+7)
7. Boston College (+1)
8. Florida (+6)
9. Oregon (+2)
10. West Virginia (+2)
11. Missouri (+7)
12. Southern California (-10)
13. Cincinnati (+7)
14. Illinois (NR)
15. Florida State (NC)
16. Virginia Tech (+1)
17. kentucky (-11)
18. Arizona State (+1)
19. Kansas (NR)
20. Michigan (+1)
21. Wisconsin (-14)
22. Auburn (+2)
23. Maryland (NR)
24. Tennessee (NR)
25. Georgia (-15)

The New Guys: #14 Illinois, #19 Kansas, #23 Maryland, and (welcome back to the world of the living) #24 Tennessee

The USC Category: #12 (quick, name a quality win... Washington?) USC and UCLA, what a night for Los Angeles! Thank goodness there's an NFL team to take the good citizenry's mind off... oh, nevvvvver mind.

Not as Good as They Thought: #12 USC, #17 kentucky, #21 Wisconsin, #25 Georgia, and #23 Kansas State

DEFINITELY NOT as Good as They Thought: Purdue, Michigan State, and Kansas State

IRRELEVANT TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Texas, Nebraska, Louisville, and, of course, UCLA

APOLOGIES TO: Utah, not ranked because their win over UCLA has been rendered inconseqential

Ramblings...

UNBELIEVABLE!!! Of the three WORST losses by major college football teams in my viewing lifetime, two occurred in the same year and nearly the SAME month! Until Michigan's colossal upending at the hands of App-y State, Oklahoma held the dubious distinction with a 13-16 egg, at home, with ZERO rushing yards, to not only an unranked Oklahoma State team, but one with a LOSING record--needing only a "W" to advance to the Big 12 Championship Game against Colorado. Well, USC just "soared" past both UM and OU, with the most STUNNING loss in my memory.

Consider: Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh CALLED THEM OUT in the preseason, REPEATEDLY! How the Cardinal snuck up on a listless #2 Trojan team is incomprehensible. People like me wondered aloud if USC would put up sixty on these clowns from Palo Alto. Yet, once again, just as I suspected, an inability to run the football--a mere 3.5 y/c at HOME--did USC in, well, that and a charity vis-a-vis FIVE turnovers.

36-game home winning streak: GONE
41-point favorite: LOSS
John David Booty's Heisman campaign: OVER
USC's Mystique: SHATTERED
Michigan feels: MUCH, MUCH BETTER

How is this for wicked irony? Southern California lost perhaps the ONLY "losable" game which would cost them a chance to reach Bourbon Street with one loss. With Cal and Oregon, certainly possible, now? HELL NO! Oklahoma, inferior schedule notwithstanding, is FAR ahead of the Trojans, ditto every unbeaten team and perhaps, dare we suggest it, West Fricking Virginia.

OMG!!! USC!!! OMG!!! USC!!! This just in... NOT as good as the 2005 team.

How about a word for the never-say-die Fighting Harbaughs. A defensive touchdown; a 4-20 conversion with time running out; a 4-G TD strike with seconds to play; a defense that didn't quit after allowing USC a long TD pass to the TE. Talk about a game those players will remember for the rest of their lives. Yes, truly, they shocked the world.

For all of its corruption, for all the unfair powers of the oligarchy, games like USC/Stanford remind all of us why college football is the greatest setting for drama in the whole of American sports. EVERY week, a loss can mean the end of a dream. We have reached ONLY the first weekend of October, and look at the carnage.

I will now take my humble bow for predicting USC would not reach the Not Sugar in N'Orleans... so long as one disregards my August prediction of their game versus Stanford. App-y State, never thought I would say it, but you've been relegated to second place in the quest to determine the Upset of the Century (eight years in).

Elsewhere...

You'll note that the Gators actually went up despite losing their second straight. Absent one interception, Tim Tebow nearly carried the day against the now firmly-entrenched #1 team in America. LSU's defense, though, proved enough of a stone wall, and gutsy calls by Les Miles/poise by Matt Flynn, kept the Bayou Bengals unblemished. A tremendous SEC contest, between two powerhouses. The Tigers showed some heart, down double digits at home, in their furious rally before the frenzied masses. Urban Meyer almost turned the trick again, but now, finally, Florida's string of national championships has ended. LSU travels to Lexington next, where their last two trips, albeit victories, should not inspire smugness.

Playing against only a darkened field, Purdue's Curtis Painter threw a touchdown pass just before the lights officially shut off on the Boilers seaso... err... the Big 10 showdown against Ohio State. The Boilers soon converted the two-point conversion, shockingly, on a play-action pass. At 23-15, they lined up for the onside kick, no word yet as to whether they recovered.

How about Ohio State's defense? Are we starting to believe now? Yes, memories of allowing eighty points in their last two contests to close 2006 are becoming quite distant. Finally, a word (re: rant) about Purdue: I hope you celebrated that meaningless garbage TD with 0:11 to go. You were just exposed as a fraud to a nationwide television audience, but, no, you had to call a timeout and then later couldn't even RUN it in from the two, because, well, you had FOUR total rushing yards to that point. OSU even gave you three turnovers and your high-powered spread offense didn't do squat.

Curtis Painter, I hope you're happy to throw your nineteenth TD pass of the year--it was as fraudulent as your football team's ranking. I usually don't complain about stuff like that, but when not even the recovery of an onside kick would make overtime or a win possible, scoring so late truly makes your team look small. The best example is UM from 2005 against the Bucks, they did score late on a prevent defense, yet HAD they recovered the kick, well, they probably would've won or at least forced OT. Purdue had NO chance and merely padded their irrelevant statistics. Classless, Boilermakers, classless. Great job, Tress. I wouldn't have even grasped Joe Tiller's hand at the end of this one, watch yourself in Columbus next year, poseurs.

I almost never say this, but... ATTENTION MICHIGAN: F___ them up in your tilt.

This just in... Cincinnati is for real, Rutgers is clearly not, and it's the Bearcats and the Bulls (WTF?) for Big East supremacy. West Virginia rebounded nicely, but they're not in the conversation just yet.

Phil Fulmer, way to circle the wagons. Georgie, what the hell happened? You've now beaten an overrated Alabama team, lost at home to the surging 'Cocks, and been blasted by one of the most defensively-challenged Vol teams of the modern era. Fortunately, I now think UK will have a shot to beat you between the hedges.

C'mon, admit it, you had Missouri as the last unbeaten Big 12 team in early October, right? Ahem, Nebraska felt so good about its latest result from their team that the program awarded Coach Bill Callahan another extension, presumably for allowing over 300 yards on the ground in Lincoln to a USC team that FAILED to crack 100 AT HOME against STANFORD!

RAPIDLY CONCEIVED HEISMAN BALLOT: Tebow, Hart, Jackson, McFadden, and Woodson

So Much For Our Happy Ending

2007-10-04T21:03:00.000-07:00

Congrats to the Gamecocks, and yes, the Ole Ball Coach.

The offense lost the game. Andre' Woodson lost his Heisman glow and will now need to orchestrate an upset over the best team in all the land to recapture it. Big-game Rich Brooks has returned. Kudos, though, to the Big Blue defense that kept SoCaro from establishing a monster ground attack.

Winning on the road at night in the SEC is the most difficult thing to do in college football, and the task is compounded when the home team feels disrespected. Yes, people had forgotten about South Carolina in the wake of LSU's field goal trickeration. Well, they now control the SEC East, not Florida, and not Kentucky. The Gators come to Columbia too, where Spurrier got them in 2005, which means an SEC Championship Game berth is quite likely for the man who hath never lost to UK.

5-1 is still a very good start, but the team has to avoid a tailspin. Prevailing in on their next two home games is perhaps a must if they want to avoid, after reaching such lofty status, a 5-3 mark and a return to the Music City Bowl.

Hopefully the Bayou Bengals destroy Florida and thus come in to Commonwealth fat and happy, also remembering the 49-0 thrashing they gave Woodson and Co. last year at the Rouge.

Week 6 Preview: Diminished Weekend

2007-10-01T06:37:00.000-07:00

KENTUCKY!!! @ South Carolina: So many times, the 'Cats have come so close to beating this team, usually at Commonwealth. A "W" here means first place in the high-powered SEC East, with home games against Florida and Tennessee to come. Woodson finally threw a pick last week, but still fired a career-high five TD passes. Unfortunately, the defensive talent skies upward this Thursday night in Columbia. On the plus side, the 'Cocks don't boast a top SEC offense. Can UK, once more, outscore a ranked opponent on the road? I say, yes. UK 34 SoCaro 27

Florida @ Louisiana State: No longer #3 @ #2. I thought I had this game figured out last week: LSU would control FLA's high-scoring attack, Flynn would make enough plays, and the Gators unbeaten streak would end at the Rouge. Alas, Auburn got there first. Why does this matter? Well, entering last weekend, Florida did NOT have to win this game in order to compete for the national championship; they've could've won the SEC East and beaten LSU in a rematch for the conference title. Now, this is a must win for the until-the-AUB game best coach in the country. Can the Gators count on six turnovers this time? Uh, no. LSU 30 FLA 14

Ohio State @ Purdue: Of all the projected "Separation Saturday" matchups, this is the only one to materialize with both squads still without a blemish on their records. The Buckeyes and Boilermakers have cruised early, yet scheduling has played a role. PUR has beaten no one of consequence, whilst OSU is helped by a respectable Washington team that stayed with USC for four quarters. The matchup is clearly Ohio State's defense versus a turn-back-the-clock (as in 2000 or early 2004) Purdue offense. Joe Tiller has never had much luck in Columbus, yet has won two of the last three in West Lafayette, and OSU needed a 4-1 TD pass in the closing seconds to win here in 2002. The questions: Is Boeckman ready? Can OSU's defense force turnovers? Yes and yes. OSU 24 PUR 21 (OT)

Wisconsin @ Illinois: All of a sudden, a much more intriguing game. The Illini stymied Penn State late and ended the Nittany Lion's conference title hopes. They are young but fast. WIS earned some points for holding off a game Spartan team last week, yet, they're vulnerable. Illinois has the defense to thwart Bucky's ground attack and force Tyler Donovan to win the game. Can he? Does Illinois move to (gasp) 3-0 and stay in first place? Not quite. WIS 17 ILL 13

Oklahoma v. Texas: Yawn. Who cares about this game now? It's not even for first place in the Big 12 South. Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford looked atrocious last weekend, but the Sooners appear to be a much better team than the Longhorns. OU, in the words of one columnist, stopped playing after fifty minutes in Boulder, whereas Texas broke down on special teams and turned the ball over at will. Bradford will bounce back, McCoy, err, well... OU 49 TX 10

Virginia Tech @ Clemson: The Tigers lost a lot of credibility in their 3-13 kicking meltdown loss in Atlanta. The weak ACC, sans BC (maybe), remains up for grabs, though. Clemson is a very good home team and the Hokies struggled to get past UNC last Saturday. Nonetheless, VT is a better team and Frank Beamer's crew will make the natives in Death Valley a bit more restless. VT 27 CLEM 20

Nebraska @ Missouri: For years, the black helmets have teased. For years, they've been exposed. As ugly as the Huskers have looked in the last few weeks, if they win in Columbia, they take a big step in claiming the Big 12 North. On the other hand, with COL and K-ST manning up last week, that division suddenly seems a trifle stronger. Look for a big day for Sam Keller as NEB gets back on (something of a) track, rolling to victory. NEB 45 MIZZ 23

Does this mean you have to rank them in the next poll?--ed No comment.

Cincinnati @ Rutgers: Are the Bearcats for real? Did Ohio State pick a good year to avoid the rompers from the 'Nati? The answer to the second one is yes. The first? Dominance looks good, but have they played anyone? Rutgers hasn't either, yet they were felled by the Terps--no the 2001 Orange Bowl participants didn't sneak back into Piscataway--when the Big East seemed theirs for the taking. RUT hosts WVA and LOU doesn't scare anyone, so a win here could lead them to a BCS game... where they'd get housed. RUT 23 CIN 20

Notre Dame @ UCLA: (Giggling) You may recall the Brady Quinn-led comeback to beat the Bruins in South Bend last year. You may also know that Quinn now totes a clipboard for the 2-2 Cleveland Browns--two more wins than the Irish currently possess. As ever, the second LA team remains an enigma: they looked great in three games and hideous in one. Seriously, 20 returning starters and a 6-44 loss in Salt Lake City, and not to Meyer's 2004 team??? Questions remain: will ND be favored against the Dookies later this year, and will USC go for 70? UCLA 28 ND 19

Heisman opportunity:

Andre' Woodson, UK: 275 yards pass, 2 TDs, 40 yards rush, TD
Tim Tebow, FLA: 250 yards pass, TD, 70 yards rush

A possibility exists that both top SEC signal-callers will exit the race after next weekend, which would boost the chances of both Mike Hart and Darren McFadden. H20 will get a little boost from breaking UM's all time rushing record. Yet, if both win, a showdown looms in Lexington this month.

RT2020 Poll: Week of September 30

2007-09-30T00:17:00.000-07:00

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. California (+2)
4. South Florida (+13)
5. Ohio State (+3)
6. KENTUCKY!!! (+5)
7. Wisconsin (+7)
8. Boston College (+2)
9. South Carolina (+6)
10. Georgia (+3)
11. Oregon (+5)
12. West Virginia (-6)
13. Oklahoma (-10)
14. Florida (-10)
15. Florida State (NR)
16. Purdue (+7)
17. Virginia Tech (+1)
18. Missouri (+1)
19. Arizona State (NR)
20. Cincinnati (NR)
21. Michigan (-1)
22. Michigan State (+3)
23. Kansas State (NR)
24. Auburn (NR)
25. Rutgers (-18!)

Dismissed: #9 Texas, #12 Clemson, #21 Penn State, and #22 Alabama

National Title Pretenders: #3 Oklahoma, #4 Florida, and #6 West Virginia

Legit: #3 California and #5 South Florida

Wow: NR Kansas State and NR Auburn

Honorable Mention: Colorado

Further comment...

Well, I've never seen a September Saturday quite like yesterday. The BCS title game picture took on a much sharper focus in the form of FIVE Top 10 teams falling to defeat, incredibly, two of them on home soil. While it is true the Florida Gators retain a slim chance of reentering the Not Sugar scenarios with a win over LSU next week, for the rest, it is over.

Oklahoma's conference had let it down, until the Sooners ensured that they would have no case, legitimate or otherwise, to make in mid-December.

Texas embarrassed itself, period, not as humiliating as Notre Dame's twenty-six point defeat to Michigan in South Bend last autumn, but close.

Presented with a golden opportunity, Rutgers could not get past a less-than-imposing ACC team--at home in New Jersey.

The vanishing acts of OU and FLA don't leave me much choice: all praise to USC for winning another night road game. I now believe the drop-off from #2 to #3 and beyond the largest in many a year. A one-loss Trojan campaign, clipped either in Eugene or Berkeley (unless the Bears go undefeated), deserves a BCS title game berth, excepting a decisive loss.

A reasonable Top 10 now includes California, South Florida, Ohio State, Boston College, and Kentucky, and some of those teams are needed to fill out the Top 5.

DeSean Jackson took a giant step towards competing for the Heisman Trophy, whereas Tim Tebow went in completely the opposite direction. Sam Bradford? Steve Slaton? Well, perhaps the less said the better.

LSU staggered to a 10-9 lead into halftime as a forty-point favorite against Tulane, yet somehow emerged as the most polished and focused team of the afternoon. The Gators, backed into a corner, arrive in Baton Rouge next week.

A few last points about the remarkable nature of this poll:

1) Florida State, ridiculed in an opening loss to Clemson, now stands ONE spot behind archrival Florida.

2) Oregon and Michigan State each received a higher ranking based on... close losses, and the former lost AT HOME!!

3) #7 Rutgers lost at home to an unranked team by double digits, and, owing to the rash of upsets, remained, barely, in the Top 25.

4) #5 Ohio State travels to West Lafayette to play #16 Purdue next Saturday... in the biggest game of the day involving two undefeated teams.

5) The University of Kentucky football program is one win away from Top 4 status... and perhaps two or three wins away from, well, we dare not say.

6) To borrow a line from Gregg Easterbrook, I don't mean to alarm you, but Oklahoma State and Texas A&M will play next weekend... for first place in the Big 12 South.

Goodbye to All That

2007-09-29T01:13:00.000-07:00

Hey y'all, holler at the farmer, 'cause the chicken laid another egg.

At the outset, congratulations to the supremely opportunistic Bulls, without question, they will warrant Top 10 status in the next round of polls. Florida kids, it goes without saying, have no peer for speed and quickness--and there are a whole lot of youngsters in the Sunshine State that can play football. Are they a national title contender? Well, we could say that a hypothetical OSU/WIS v. RUT/USF poll battle would prove quite interesting, especially if also matched against a one-loss USC team for the right to play the SEC champion (the winner of the nation's best conference is always guaranteed a title shot, didn't you know that?). In order...

1) A one-loss USC team
2) An undefeated Rutgers or South Florida team
3) An undefeated Wisconsin or Ohio State team
4) An undefeated Oklahoma team, unless Texas wins out

Of course, an LSU/FLA split would create quite a bit of chaos, even if USC--the greatest team that we will ever see until 2008--runs the table. Nonetheless, I can tell you, with absolute certainty, which team is no longer part of the title picture.

Jerry Glanville and Jack Pardee's Houston Oilers... err... Rich Rodriguez's West Virginia Mountaineers. Look, before suitably blasting WVA for emulating Virginia Tech post-#7, a few words on my pick. It had all the possibility of becoming true, had Pat White not dinged up his knee and had alleged All-America Steve Slaton had better hands. Aside from a pick-six to open the proceedings and a Louisville-esque busted coverage on a long TD pass, the incompetent execution at the USF 2 summed up the night rather well. That botched snap likely cost the Mountaineers a TD and only a 7-14 deficit.

On the highlights, it sort of looked like Greg Montgomery muffing a snap on a field goal in a playoff game long ago... Last year, a lack of discipline cost West Virginia on the road at Louisville followed by a lack of focus against these very same Bulls when a BCS berth seemed theirs for the taking (because, you know, beating an SEC champ in the Sugar Bowl--barely--is worth ten years of goodwill, not quite ND-like, but almost). White and Slaton starred as freshmen on a Top 5 finisher in 2005... now it's 2007, and we're still waiting for something resembling an encore.

Coach Rodriguez has a good program, yet the aforementioned stars are not the usual crop received by Morgantown: they've cashed in to some degree, but more has been expected these last two years. If Slaton stays, they'll have one more chance, if not, well, it may not get this good for awhile.

Upon reflection of last night's WVA debacle, my thoughts wandered back to one of the most talented teams in NFL history--the late 1980s/early 1990s Houston Oilers. A cool bunch with charismatic players and speed to burn, so great... they never played in an AFC Championship Game. We need not remind you their entire "reign" witnessed the NFC hold the Lombardi Trophy every time. To borrow a line from the legendary SNL performer, it was always something, from gagging a thirty-two point lead in Buffalo to playing the foil for yet another Joe Montana moment, as their #2 seed and visions of finally reaching the Super Bowl, dissipated in the cavernous Astrodome artificial air. Soon, the brass chose a "promising" young QB over a future Hall of Famer, and the ride ended, literally, with the relocation to Tennessee.

Now, Rich Rodriguez is a better coach than either Houston gent, yet the results, troublingly, seem the same: they always find the banana peel. Remarkably, this time it wasn't the defense, but injuries and an ineffective offense. Oh, like a certain Run-and-Shoot crew from days gone by, they can return to piling up the points on questionable competition, and perhaps even win in New Jersey later this year. We may even say it goes back to old ruler of Morgantown, and the 1988 and 1993 undefeated Mountaineer squads pummelled in two major bowl games--or the potential squandered in the form of a seventeen point opening loss to the (albeit #1) Buckeyes in 1998. Or allowing a certain Virginia Tech freshman quarterback to drive his team to a game-winning field goal with seconds to play on the Blue Ridge in 1999.

The Bulls are a nice story and have a leg up in the conference race, yet they're not a serious championship contender (yet), West Virginia was supposed to be one, even as their sole accomplishment remains holding off one of the worst SEC champions (Georgia, 2005) in many seasons.

Yet, perhaps it is best for WVA to look on the bright side: at least they didn't blow a double-digit lead against a mid-level opponent in a conference title game mere minutes from a once-fathomable destination: the Fiesta Bowl and the chance to play for all the marbles. That 1998 Kansas State edition, piloted by the Heisman runner-up, a terrific defense, and superb special teams, owns the dubious distinction of losing the most.

Week 5 Preview: Saddle Up, WVA

2007-09-25T04:27:00.000-07:00

West Virginia @ South Florida: Two of the three best teams in the Big East will begin to shake out the conference Thursday night. The Bulls are a very good home team, and the Mountaineers are notorious for losing focus away from the Blue Ridge State. SF got Auburn back when that mattered, so we don't know much about either team. I like Steve Slaton and Pat White to do the job, however, perhaps in thrilling fashion. WVA 37 SF 30

California @ Oregon: Winner can begin to shadow USC and prepare for a conference title-deciding quarrel later in the season. For CAL's DeSean Jackson and ORE's Dennis Dixon this is nothing less than a statement game, either can boost their Heisman chances with a memorable performance. The Bears are a better team, yet the game is at Autzen. Worse, Dixon is better than Nate Longshore. The Ducks have had defensive issues, but I think they can pull it out. ORE 41 CAL 38

Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Bucky is still undefeated, yet almost no one is impressed with the Badgers lately. Meanwhile, new coach Mark Dantonio has guided Sparty to a perfect record after the turmoil of the John L. Smith era. Even so, are the upstarts prepared to win a road game outside of South Bend? Well, no. WIS 24 MSU 13, as U-Dub begins to earn back some props.

Auburn @ Florida: No team in the SEC over the last fifteen years has given the Gators as many fits as Auburn. Last year, the Tigers ended FLA's hopes for an undefeated season on the Plains, this time, well, payback seems the order of the day. Urban Meyer is also still a little steamed at the lackluster effort in Oxford last week, and he knows where the champs must trek in early October. FLA 31 AUB 21

At the Quarter Pole: Heisman Ballot

2007-09-24T10:14:00.000-07:00

The Heisman Trophy remains the one of the most prestigious awards in all of sport, as only the Sullivan Award proves a rival in the field of amateur competition. Whilst frequently just another way to recognize the best quarterback or running back on the best team, the Heisman nonetheless generates debate, which is good for college football. Last year at this time, Ohio State's Troy Smith had led the Buckeyes to a 3-0 record--most persuasively a 24-7 win over then-#2 Texas--and in so doing displaced frontrunner Brady Quinn, whose Irish fell to Michigan in rather decisive fashion. The battlelines for this season have yet to be drawn.

Darren McFadden, the best player in college football, actually passed Quinn to finish second in the 2006 race, in addition, he is a running back, which would seem to augur well for his chances. Unfortunately, D-Mac is plagued by an already-two loss team that doesn't rate among the nation's elite programs. Worse, his numbers don't appear on course for a 2,000 yard 25 TD campaign now clearly necessary to wrest the award away from a competitor likely to contend for the national championship. Don't forget, Arkansas remained mathematically alive for the Not-Fiesta well into November, affording #5 an opportunity to achieve national recognition--especially after the Hogs hammered Auburn on the Plains. So, who can win it?

Tim Tebow, QB, FLA: His team is top-five, and he is already a known commodity, plus his combination rush/pass skills always go over well with the committee. Issues? For one, LSU. The tenacious Bayou Bengal defense could make mincemeat of his hopes, he may have two shots though, if Florida can win in Columbia and beat the Dawgs. A Heisman is likely in his future, though I'm thinking more 2008.

Mike Hart, RB, MICH: RT2020's preaseason pick, but the second loss to Oregon is a drag on the effort. Still, huge days at Wisconsin and, well, another game to close the season will give him a chance. Yet, like McFadden, Michigan is no longer a title contender, which means 2,000 yards is closet to a prerequisite for joining Woodson, Howard, and Harmon. He also has no chance when measured against the Oregon QB.

DeSean Jackson, WR, CAL: Two TDs in an upset of USC will put him in the race, otherwise, Desmond's cheerleading aside, I just don't see it. His school is not powerful enough, even if they are top-five material this autumn. I almost think CAL has to go undefeated, and even then, likely not enough.

Andre' Woodson, QB, UK: HOMER! HOMER! Well, a win next week against the OBC on the Coast and his name will appear on every ballot. Face facts: Kentucky last started 4-0 in their mythical 1950 title season of Bryant and Parilli! Even a home split against LSU and Florida, provided he plays well, will not knock him from the race. A ten-win season with that, ahem, record still intact would provide a strong resume. He's on course for a trip to NYC.

John David Booty, QB, USC: Four Heismans in seven seasons sounds almost impossible, yet this Trojan signal-caller, in big games @ CAL and ORE, will once again receive the opportunity to become the eighth USC star to hoist the hardware. Unlike any other candidate save Woodson, his destiny is entirely in his hands. A 12-0 USC mark will almost guarantee him at least second place, dispatched only by a 2,000 tailback, or a player from the SEC (or both).

Colt Brennan, QB, HI: His model is Andre Ware, the 1989 recipient from Houston that put up such gaudy numbers it made Tony Rice look pedestrian. I think he will make some Pro Bowls at the next level, yet I cannot look favorably on giving the award to him due to strength of schedule. It simply is not there. Worse, he would not have a potential BCS win (Hawaii is likely to receive a bid if undefeated) to buttress his argument. Great QB, but no.

Dennis Dixon, QB, ORE: Dixon v. Booty, Autzen, only one will exit with intact Heisman hopes. Actually, Dixon needs a UM resurgence (all the way to the Top 10?) more than an undefeated season. Oregon has posted a Heisman finalist as recently as 2001 and the swoosh money would ensure a competitive campaign if the Ducks don't falter to a Pac-10 weakling. He beats USC, though, and Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl, well, I think it's his to lose in the last few weeks of the season.

Pat White/Steve Slaton, QB/RB, WVA: I feel for these guys, but their hopes had rested on an undefeated Louisville showing up in Morgantown. Oops. Rutgers and South Florida are still there, yet these Mountaineers truly needed that high-profile game. WVA's typical late-season swoon, if replicated in 2007, would completely alienate their Heisman backers. The same written today was true of 2006: if undefeated, they have a chance--and a way in Pisacataway is crucial.

Yes, we could look at OU's Bradford, however, until proven otherwise freshmen do not win the Heisman Trophy, and certainly not before a sophomore. The "Big" 12 also does not provide enough statement games for Oklahoma. If the Sooners thrash Texas and finish 13-0, well, Bradford is headed to the ceremony... in a clapping role. Like Tebow, though, we may see more of him soon.

The ballot:

1. Andre' Woodson
2. Mike Hart
3. Tim Tebow
4. Darren McFadden
5. Dennis Dixon

RT2020 Poll: Week of September 23

2007-09-23T07:09:00.000-07:00

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. Oklahoma (+1)
4. Florida (-1)
5. California (+1)
6. West Virginia (-1)
7. Rutgers (+1)
8. Ohio State (+4)
9. Texas (NC)
10. Boston College (+4)
11. KENTUCKY!!! (+6)
12. Clemson (+4)
13. Georgia (+2)
14. Wisconsin (-4)
15. South Carolina (-4)
16. Oregon (+2)
17. South Florida (NR)
18. Virginia Tech (+3)
19. Missouri (NR)
20. Michigan (NR)
21. Penn State (-14)
22. Alabama (-9)
23. Purdue (NC)
24. Hawaii (NC)
25. Michigan State (NR)

Unceremoniously bounced: #19 (WVA is not happy) Louisville, #20 (OU is not happy) Texas A&M, #22 (Same as previous) Nebraska, and #25 (Nearing the end of D-Mac in big games) Arkansas

Valiant in defeat: #7 Penn State, #11 South Carolina, and #13 Alabama

On-field promotions: South Florida, Missouri, and MICHIGAN!

The Wisconsin Category (Unimpressive in victory): #3 Florida, #10 Wisconsin, and #22 Nebraska

Here comes... : California, Ohio State, Boston College, Clemson, and KENTUCKY!!!

Musings...

Most assuredly, the Bayou Bengals will lose #1 votes for defeating the Ole Ball Coach by "only" twelve points. Sigh. Make no mistake: the 'Cocks are Top-15 material... for another week at least :)

OMG!!! USC!!! OMG!!! USC!!! And you thought John David Booty's Heisman campaign had faded from memory. Well, two games now separate the Men of Troy from N'Orleans and an LSU beatdown, if Carroll's crew rips Oregon at Autzen and Cal in Berkeley, yes, even RT2020 will (redacted) Southern Cal nearly as much as the rest of punditdom.

Speaking of Cal, nice job in revenging an awful loss from last year, you know, the one that cost the Bears an outright Pac-10 championship. Yet to borrow a line from the song, it doesn't matter, no. It's USC, that and not pulling another Tedford special in a more nondescript game.

King Meyer, conqueror of Ohio State, didn't quite look like the best coach in America yesterday. Yes, it was on the road, yes it came after a dismantling of the artists formally known as Tennessee football, yes, Tebow is awesome. As the Tommy Lee Jones character once said, "I don't care." Champs, you ain't scaring the Tigers with this performance.

As for the Buckeyes, wait, was that #10 back on the field? Fitty again against the Wildcats, albeit a school dropped by D-OOOOOO-K? Yeah, not a lot learned here, but the D again showed some teeth. If they can hold Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan under 100 yards rushing, it's on to Pasadena.

And finally, YOOOOOOO-KAAAAAYYYYYY. First the bad news, 338 yards allowed on the ground (ugh) and twenty-two times the announcers piped, "Move the chains," (visions of a smiling Tim Tebow and Matt Flynn, aaargh!!!) with the white shirts on the field, even if the best tailback in the nation toted the rock that night. On the other hand, Andre' Woodson is rapidly becoming a very baaaad man. Do I have the homerism to put him #1 on my utterly meaningless unofficial Heisman ballot???

Stay tuned.

Week 4 Preview: 'Cocks at the Rouge

2007-09-19T07:04:00.000-07:00

Texas A&M @ Miami: Mercurial coach Denny Franchione, still best known for ditching Alabama after one campaign, has perhaps his finest team yet in College Station. Building off a tenure-guaranteeing win at Austin last autumn, the Aggies may challenge for a Big 12 South division championship. Well, if so, they need to show some maturity in winning against a good but not elite Miami team, last seen cowering before the Sooners. The Big 12 has taken some hits, and it's due for another one. I like the 'Canes in the upset, MIA 23 TAMU 21

South Carolina @ LSU: Like defense? Glenn Dorsey's crew has dominated three decent teams, but points from their prolific offense may prove difficult to come by against a fast, tough Gamecock D. On the other hand, while this is certainly the Bayou Bengals' roughest test until D-Day on the Sixth, and despite a clear coaching advantage, the Tigers are too good to slip up here, but it's tougher than anticipated, LSU 17 SoCaro 6

Penn State @ Michigan: Do you recollect the last time the Nittany Lions won against the Maize and Blue, how about 1996? Michigan has dominated and won the close ones, and the first step to determining the 2008 Rose Bowl loser is this contest at the Big House. I still love H20, and JoePa's defense has not impressed lately. PSU is good, yet not on the level of the 1994 team that won 31-24 in Ann Arbor, plus I'll take a freshman talent over the inconsistent Anthony Morrelli. MICH 31 PSU 14

Georgia @ Alabama: Richt's Dawgs invade Tuscaloosa to attempt to avoid a second conference loss, albeit out of division. The Tide have rolled thus far, but the escape over the Razorbacks last week raised some questions. I think UGA has the better team, yet the confines favor Nick Saban's team. Expect a nasty, low-scoring battle that may come down to a kick, edge, 'Bama. ALA 18 UGA 16

KENTUCKY @ Arkansas: Ahem, must maintain impartiality... Well, one team runs the ball as well as any in the country, and the other, despite having a great quarterback (who, by the way, if he played for ARK would have them undefeated and in the title chase), cannot stop the run at all. On the other hand, UK has had more success on the road here than anywhere else (outside of Mississippi) in conference. I picked UK over ARK in the preseason, and despite a likely 300 combined total yards from Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, the 'Cats can outscore this team. Andre' Woodson's legend continues to grow. UK 45 ARK 38

All in all, not a great slate of games, yet have no fear, D-Day is coming. So, too, is a Heisman update after the results of this coming Saturday.

RT2020 Poll: Week of September 16

2007-09-16T06:09:00.000-07:00

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (NC)
3. Florida (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. West Virginia (+1)
6. California (+6)
7. Penn State (+3)
8. Rutgers (+3)
9. Texas (-5)
10. Wisconsin (-2)
11. South Carolina (+2)
12. Ohio State (+6)
13. Alabama (+9)
14. Boston College (NR)
15. Georgia (+2)
16. Clemson (+7)
17. KENTUCKY! (NR)
18. Oregon (+2)
19. Louisville (-11)
20. Texas A&M (+4)
21. Virginia Tech (NR)
22. Nebraska (-7)
23. Purdue (NR)
24. Hawaii (NR)
25. Arkansas (-6)

Banished: #7 (ugh) UCLA, #14 (huh?) Georgia Tech, #16 (yeah, I bit) Washington, #19 (you know what you have to do) South Florida, #25 (hey, the 1995 team got roasted at the Swamp too!) Tennessee

Took We a Tumble: #9 Louisville (#20 now), #15 Nebraska (#23 now), #19 Arkansas (#25 now)

Shaky, shaky: #5 Texas (now #9), #8 Wisconsin (now #10)

Validation: #2 USC (NC), #18 Ohio State! (+6)

Starting to Believe: Rutgers, California, South Carolina

I guessed 2006, I was too kind: Notre Dame, reprising their 2003 effort at UM

Well, I haven't felt so good about being so wrong in some time! Starting at the top, the LSU Destroyers continued on their rampage to the national championship game--that's now seven points allowed in three games...

USC nicely stepped up and won the first of five tough roadies this season, although, admittedly, the bout at Seattle no longer looks as challenging. Careful, however, because Oregon and California, both of which Pete Carroll's Dynasty* faces away from the Coliseum, can put up the points too.

Urban Meyer, top coach in America? Only one to defeat Ohio State in twenty-three games, no losses to UF's hard triangle, just asking... Tennessee's "defense" has embarrassed their late-1990s, sans NEB games, units. Where have you gone, Al Wilson, Raynoch Thompson, and D'wayne Goodrich, Rocky Top turns its lonely eyes to you...

Wisconsin, even though I'm sure they'll top OSU and possibly win the Big 10, continues to unimpress, P. J. Hill not withstanding. At the moment, Penn State is the best team in the Big 10, though neither team has gone on the road to beat a worthy adversary... great job, Bucks!

Nick Saban cannot win a national championship in his FIRST year, can he? Too much youth, too many flaws, yet one SEC West foe conquered, two more to go, and one of them just lost to Mississippi State, which admittedly makes South Florida's win on the Plains look more pedestrian than last week.

Oh yes, there was a little quarrel at the Commonwealth last evening... YES!!!!!!!!!!!! Finally, against an opponent that had laughed and snorted at UK for years, Louisville gets its comeuppance, albeit in yet another game that has me seeing 50s and 60s for LSU and Florida. C'mon D, can you hold either to under 30??? Yes, I'll say it, the best win of Rich Brooks's career (you mean better than the NFL days?). Tennessee looks more and more beatable, whilst outscoring Georgia now seems plausible, even if between the hedges.

UK!!!!!!!!!!! UK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WELCOME TO THE AP POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bonus BCS Preview:

OCT 6: Gators at the Tigers, D-Day in the SEC.

Week 3 Preview: Licked at Lincoln?

2007-09-10T04:15:00.000-07:00

Week 3 has a few games of note, and there's always a chance for a Top 15 to fall to an unranked one, but this is one of the last of the not-so impressive Saturdays.

USC @ Nebraska: Unquestionably, the game of the day. The issue before us is whether the Mighty ‘Huskers will ever "return" to college football’s elite. Their performance against Southern California last year bordered on disgraceful, perhaps the most glaring instance of a team not trying to win, but endeavoring only to avoid a knockout. Meanwhile, the Dynasty* certainly has followed the hosannas distributed to LSU after the Tigers swamped Virgina Tech. Booty v. Keller? Nope, can USC find someone in their well-documented tailback stable to rush for 100 yards? I think the Trojans will miss Jarrett and Smith in this game, and look for Sam Keller to begin his push to earn a place in New York City. Nebraska 27 USC 24

Tennessee @ Florida: In 2001, owing in large part to 9/11 (this game has been a September tradition for some time), these two teams played one of the best college football games of this century, as the Vols won for the first time in a generation at the Swamp. They will need the effort of a Travis Stephens-like back and much more to beat Urban Meyer’s champions. Tennessee can get right back into the SEC race and the national conversation with a win, but if Longshore of Cal made their defense look pedestrian, what will Tebow do? A lot. What will his defense do? Enough. The rapidly-becoming-legendary coach remains unbeaten against the Gators' top two rivals. Florida 35 Tennessee 20

Louisville @ Kentucky: Andre’ Woodson has played most of his sterling career in the shadow of Brian Brohm. Perhaps for the final time, the two QBs will square off in a game not likely to see much defense. UK should prove tired of getting embarrassed by the ‘Ville, but a D that allowed over 300 yards to Kent State on the ground looks too unsteady to keep the Cardinals under fifty. Can Woodson outduel Brohm? Winner takes an important step as far as awards go. Bobby Petrino and Michael Bush are gone, but their legacy, unfortunately, lives on. Louisville 56 Kentucky 45

Ohio State @ Washington: Whilst a certain school from South Bend is ducking for cover, Tyrone Willingham’s current team has beaten a former power and a rising power in the last two weeks. Is this the best U-Dub group since 2000? At QB, more than likely. The Buckeye defense, however, has held opponents to just two field goals in two home contests. The X-Factor, which should surprise no one, is Chris Wells. Beanie started to get loose in the second half last week, but this OSU offense is probably not yet functional enough to execute in a hostile environment. Despite a 9-3 cumulative mark, Ohio State has had some ugly games here (remember 1986)? It won’t get that bad, but, Washington 23 Ohio State 9

Arkansas @ Alabama: Darren McFadden’s road to the Heisman and to the Cleveland Browns as #1 overall draft choice begins here with a roadie against the resurgent Tide. ‘Bama hosts both the Hogs and the Bayou Bengals, and judging by Auburn’s recent woes, may have an outside chance to capture the SEC West, or perhaps more. Whatever his shenanigans, Nick Saban is one of the ten best college football coaches in America (Carroll, Meyer, Spurrier, Miles, Stoops, Tressel, Schiano, Rodriguez, and Tedford are the others), but even with the friendly folks of Tuscaloosa, D-Mac and Jones should have their way. Arkansas 28 Alabama 20

Notre Dame @ Michigan: 0-2 v. 0-2. I have gone from picking the Maize and Blue to win all of their regular season games by roughly two touchdowns to taking them against Oregon by four TDs to sheepishly wondering if I should pick another UM game all season. Ah, but there’s always ND. The once-glorious (circa 1993) Fightin’ Irish boast an offensive resume with more sacks allowed than points scored. An otherwise meaningless game does merit intrigue if it pits Ryan Mallet of Michigan against "Jimmah" Clausen of Notre Dame—possibly, the first of three such matchups, presumably with more on the line in later years. Strange series, the last few years. UM has hammered ND (2003, 2006) or frittered away close games (2002, 2004, 2005) to the opportunistic Irish. RT2020 doesn’t see how the Weissers do any better against Mario Manningham then last year. If Michigan fails to net forty, more questions should be raised. Fifteen, though, will do it. Michigan 47 Notre Dame 21, hmmm... seen that one somewhere before.

RT2020 Poll: Week of September 9

2007-09-09T05:06:00.000-07:00

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Southern California (+1)
3. Oklahoma (+8)
4. Florida (-2)
5. Texas (+2)
6. West Virginia (-1)
7. UCLA (+2)
8. Wisconsin (-4)
9. Louisville (+1)
10. Penn State (+2)
11. Rutgers (+3)
12. California (+3)
13. South Carolina (+7)
14. Georgia Tech (NR)
15. Nebraska (-2)
16. Washington (NR)
17. Georgia (-9)
18. Ohio State (-2)
19. Arkansas (+3)
20. Oregon (NR)
21. South Florida (NR)
22. Alabama (+2)
23. Clemson (NR)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Tennessee (NR)

Frauds and Impostors: #17 Boise State, #18 Virginia Tech (told ya so), #19 Oregon State (my bad), #21 Miami, and #23 Hawaii

Sorry, had to do it: #6 Appalachian State and #25 TCU

Banished For a Fortnight: Auburn and, well, that Team Up North

New Arrivals: Georgia Tech, Washington, Oregon, South Florida, and Clemson

First off, I should probably refrain from picking the score of Michigan's game for the rest of the season, holy mother of God. I guess Lou Holtz's ESPN.com stump speech did little to stop Dennis Dixon. For the second straight week, a stunning score: 7-39. Mike Hart, despite limps, had another fine day, but Michigan got smoked by the spread yet again, never fear, it is possible that a Big 10 ti... oh, I'll just shut my mouth.

Hey, pollsters, any questions? I thought not. Yes, I called it back in December, but oh my goodness, 598 total yards on the Hokies, this crew is like a pack of hounds out for Vick's blood. Better saddle up, Gators.

Speaking of Florida, we're already starting to see some holes in that D, and it's going to catch up with them, so, alas, I have to put USC at #2. What a conformist. Oklahoma, though, posted the second-most impressive victory of the day, slicing Miami's proud defense for fitty-one in (twenty year) payback for the bruisings of the 1980s. I had them winning it, but not by that much. Number three, pending USC's presumed drive-by of Nebraska... which got caught looking ahead and barely escaped at the Grove. Keller was OK, but not nearly as poised as Colt McCoy, as Texas finally began the 2007 season with a second half smoking of a good (possibly BCS) TCU team.

Credit the OBC for, once again, destroying another promising Bulldog season. Still, I couldn't drop Richt's boys out completely, their defense allowed only one touch, and they're still better than Kentucky (pending the Louisville game). The 'Cocks, well thought of in this blog's preview, now have a serious chance to actually win the SEC East... and get drop-kicked by the Bayou Bengals in Atlanta. Meanwhile, all the Yellow Jackets had to do was cast aside Reggie Ball, and continue the defensive pressure. I'm starting to buy an ACC title.

Cal and Bucky slid past game opponents on the road, and both therefore had a better day than the offensively disinclined Ohio State Buckeyes, a prime candidate to get shoved out of the Top 25 next week, but a D that allows zero points and forces fourteen punts is still a Big 10 title contender, even if #10, #7, #11, and #25 are not walking through that door anymore.

In just a few weeks, might we be looking at #1 LSU v. #4 Florida, and #3 Oklahoma v. #5 Texas. Wow, two national championship eliminators, with the caveat that the Gators, if not utterly humiliated, would have a shot via a rematch in the SEC Championship Game, but, well, they need Jarvis Moss and Reggie F______ Nelson to have any real chance of keeping LSU from rolling to N'Orleans and the Not Sugar.

If LSU is not #1 in your poll, you're likely far too into USC. Two BCS conference teams, two games of 40+, two games of >10. Yes, a long road to hoe, but the beginnings of one of those special teams, and perhaps suitable competition for the Big Red Machine of 1995.

Week 2 Preview: Warming Up

2007-09-06T00:57:00.000-07:00

After rising Big East powers Louisville and Rutgers do nothing to imperil their Top-20 status on Thursday and Friday respectively, the college football season can officially begin eliminating the pretenders.

Games of Note:

#9 Virginia Tech (too high) @ #2 LSU (too low): Frank Beamer's emotional Hokies are usually a tough out, but an inability to score twenty points on East Carolina last week does not bode well against the best defense in the nation. Whilst the Tigers offense is a work in progress, particularly on the ground, twenty points should do it, though it could prove a struggle for three quarters. LSU is too fast, too motivated, and too talented to let an overrated ACC school ruin their September. LSU 30 VT 9

NR Miami (too low) @ #5 Oklahoma (too high): Finally, after twenty years and a near miss to close the 2000 season, the "U" and Boomer meet up again in Norman. Sooner fans have good memories of the last season Oklahoma hosted Miami, for it proved a national title year--even if Miami won the game (1985). Barry Switzer's boys won every game from 1985-1987, except for three, all against one school. Nonetheless, is Randy Shannon's group ready for this game? Not yet. OU 24 MIA 10*

#19 TCU (too high) @ #7 Texas (just right): After a sleepy second half against Arkansas State, one would think Colt McCoy and the Longhorn offense is rarin' to go in one of the few games Texas could lose this season. Yet, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year must show more than last week, because TCU is a very good team. Not good enough in Austin, however. TX 37 TCU 10, in a bounce-back game for TX.

NR South Carolina (too low) @ #11 Georgia (also too low): No matter the records, this early SEC clash is almost always a nail-biter, and the Gamecocks almost always end up losing it. Spurrier's troops didn't play especially well in a functional DNP environment last week, and Georgia's win over Okie State was one of the better performances of the week. Still, the 'Cocks are coming, ahem, and while I am reasonably high on the 'Dawgs to play for the SEC East title in Jacksonville, they could drop this one. Same old story, however. GA 21 SC 16

NR Notre Dame (too low) @ #14 Penn State (about right): Revenge is a dish best served cold, beware also of Nittany Lion nation under the lights. PSU crushed their opponent last week and may indeed have Big 10 title aspirations for the second time in three seasons, ND, well, the less said about GT's thirty-point win the better. I don't see a 1992-esque ending here. PSU 41 ND 14, give Clausen a few nice plays and JoePa calls off the dogs early.

NR Oregon (about right) @ #5... err.. NR Michigan ('nuff said): Four years ago, the Wolverines blew a national title opportunity with a series of special-teams breakdowns in Eugene, losing to the hideously dressed Ducks of Bellotti. After a week in crisis, Michigan's "O" should not have a problem moving the football, but Oregon QB Dennis Dixon runs the spread offense, uh oh... Nah, I said four touchdowns and I'll stick to it, entertaining game, no doubt. UM 49 ORE 21, another Heisman day for #20. They'll move to #15 in my poll if they achieve that result.

All in all, not a bad weekend of college football: five games of significant to serious interest and another opportunity to see the Fightin' Irish housed on national television. What could prove better than that?

As to the Heisman Trophy, I've offered my preview and more or less believe we need at least a few weeks to shake out the contenders. I want to see Brian Brohm against an SEC defense (sorta) in Lexington, or John David Booty in Lincoln, before I can fairly assess their chances at the Big Award. Likewise, I don't care what Pat White and Steve Slaton do against anyone other than Louisville and Rutgers, especially the former, in Morgantown. I will say that I've refused to throw Mike Hart of Michigan off the list because of his team's 32-34 debacle against App-y State, without his second half presence Michigan loses by at least ten points, H20 almost saved the day. Romp over Penn State and he'll be right back in it.

* Exact opposite of the 1986 game in the Orange Bowl when #1 Oklahoma fell to the Canes.

RT2020 Poll: Week of September 2

2007-09-04T04:14:00.000-07:00

Note: I should have this completed by Sundays in the future.

1. Louisiana State (NC)
2. Florida (+2)
3. Southern California (+2)
4. Wisconsin (+2)
5. West Virginia (+2)
6. Appalachian State (NR)
7. Texas (-4)
8. Georgia (+1)
9. UCLA (+1)
10. Louisville (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+2)
12. Penn State (+3)
13. Nebraska (-2)
14. Rutgers (NC)
15. California (+6)
16. Ohio State (+2)
17. Boise State (+2)
18. Virginia Tech (-1)
19. Oregon State (+4)
20. South Carolina (NC)
21. Miami (+4)
22. Arkansas (+2)
23. Hawaii (NR)
24. Alabama (NR)
25. TCU (NR)

Dropped out: #2 Michigan, #8 Florida State, #16 Tennessee, and #22 Auburn

Watch out: Georgia Tech, Washington, Texas A&M, Oregon, and Clemson

Risers: Appalachian State, California, Oregon State, and Miami

Fallers: Texas, plus losing teams

Well, eight of my top ten survived opening week, what is that an 80% proficiency rating? Ugh. True, I could've been more charitable to the Volunteers, but allowing forty-five points in any setting is not grounds for a moral victory. We've covered Michigan's woes earlier, yet Florida State, deigning to show observers the 'Noles were "back," did not show up ready in Death Valley. Clemson may prove very good, but no defense should hold FSU to ONE first down and fewer than seventy yards in a half, save for Florida 2006 or LSU 2007. Atrocious. Jimbo Fisher left the sweets of Baton Rouge for this?!? Auburn's lackluster win over K-State simply did not impress, yet they're still a contender in the SEC West.

The more I see of Colt Brennan, yes, mere highlights, the more I am persuaded Pro Bowls are in his future. Can he win the Heisman though? John David Booty and the Trojans yawned through Idaho, but their big games are fast approaching. Some would quibble with App-y State ranked in the Top 10, yet I don't believe anyone else will win in Michigan Stadium this year. Texas never felt in danger of losing to Arkansas State, yet when your comparables ring up the cash register, well, 21-13 on your home field drops you a few spots, nothing a third straight conquering of OU won't cure though.

Crickets in Ann Arbor

2007-09-02T05:18:00.000-07:00

Because Florida State still has to play Clemson tomorrow, I will hold off on my new Top 25, Heisman update, and UK review (well done, gentlemen). In the meantime, well, there's no getting around it, I have to create a rationale for the 32-34 defeat suffered by my #2 team (#5 nationally), on their home field, with four preseason-possible All Americas on offense, including my Heisman pick, to a subdivision team from the mountains of North Carolina.

No Virginia, Michigan football will not finish 12-0 this November or hold the crystal football in N'Orleans. Yes, they have lost their third consecutive game, allowing at least thirty points in each of them.

My strong Ohio State sympathies aside, yesterday's result was awful for a conference decimated in two BCS games last January, and schadenfreude is not a part of this post--especially when I have so much egg on my face as a prognosticator. Suffice to say, the Wolverines will not rank #2 in the next poll. Before digging into the particulars, a word about Mike Hart. The All America was the ONLY reason Michigan even led in the second half (for about three minutes) after his sizzling 54-yard run to paydirt. Well, from here on in, matters will read considerably darker for the blue-and-yellow helmets.

Grasping for straws, I want to reiterate that this team should still win the Big 10 title, but getting out of September looks a good deal more challenging than, say, last week.

And all praise to Appalachian State...

Speed kills. Or perhaps more importantly, it camouflages if not erases other deficits, namely strength and size. App-y State looked to have superior speed at the skill positions, which shouldn't necessarily shock us. A few years ago, when considering the merits of all-time university teams, I discounted both UM and Notre Dame (their 3-33 pasting doesn't even warrant elaboration) on account of speed. Save for their co-title 1997 season, loaded with Charles Woodson, Ian Gold, Dhani Jones, and James Hall, Michigan has not boasted fast defenses. Even last year, their incredible game one through eleven statistics resulted from a vicious run defense, not speed in the back seven. Of course, it is quite possible UM will not face another quarterback as problematic as Armanti Edwards, who may have played the best first half of any quarterback, ever (no incompletions, no turnovers, four total TDs).

While Edwards, when not crushed by Crable and Co., crashed down to earth throughout most of the second half, he still had enough scrambling ability and arm strength to drive his team in the final 1:30. Just as Troy Smith had done on the very same field in November 2005. Michigan fans would well note the similarities between the home team's possessions prior to those final drives. Nursing a one-point lead, UM drew a critical penalty on third-and-short, forcing a throw on third-and-long. Given that Hart had rumbled for around 120 yards in the second half, no small thing. Unlike 2005 v. OSU, when Lloyd Carr opted for the pooch punt, Michigan tried a field goal, only to see it blocked. Within a play, App-y State had found the M logo, and didn't look back.

Now, great (or allegedly great) teams win with stars, and clearly UM lost this game because #20 wasn't much of a factor in the mid-portion, and #86 was all but invisible. The latter of course refers to Mario Manningham, previously rated as an ICBM in some quarters, and the best WR in the country (gulp) in others. Aside from a potentially game-saving grab in the final fifteen seconds, he contributed virtually nothing of significance to the cause. For an All-America, a disastrous day.

Which brings us to Chad Henne. After an impressive opening, 0-3 took on an inconsistent form for the rest of the afternoon, awful, in terms of the forced interception in the second half. Thirty-two offensive points is normally a job well done for quarterbacks, yet not with this offense, once considered Top 5 in the nation. Henne could not ice the game late in the fourth and did not complete enough third-and-medium throws to allow UM to escape the Big House with a W.

I think most sensible people understood UM's defense would kill its chance at a national title; I just thought it would take until the Not Sugar for this to occur. Losing that many key players (ask OSU 2006) is very difficult to overcome. The secondary, however, is even more precarious then last autumn. Absent Leon Hall, UM has no defensive backs worthy of praise, except perhaps a freshman that is not yet Law or Jackson. Fortunately, save for Oregon, very few teams on their schedule are equipped to take full advantage of it. Neither Penn State, Wisconsin, nor Ohio State present a quarterback as challenging as Edwards, which means UM should defeat all of them, particularly since two of the three are in Ann Arbor. We don't even have to mention the Irish, do we?

Next week is huge for Michigan, but not as big as the Penn State game. Whether UM wins or loses will have almost no bearing on the Big 10 race, save to break a possible 7-1, 6-2 tie for the right to play USC/Texas/Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. A second loss, though, would place enormous pressure on Coach Carr and categorically eliminate a BCS slot absent a conference title. So, I'll take Michigan to stomp the Ducks (2003 revenge?) by four touchdowns, with 200+ for Heisman Hart. Of course, I'm also the fellow who predicted Michigan would beat USC and OSU in 2006, OSU in 2005, Texas in 2004, so perhaps my clairvoyance is best left to U. S. presidential elections.

Week 1 Preview: Yawn

2007-08-29T08:04:00.000-07:00

The 2007 RT2020-proclaimed National Champions, I've called it since December, begin would should prove a short trek to the Superdome by opening with a conference tilt on the road. Rather than feasting on some significantly inferior in-state school, the Bayou Bengals journey to Starkville and then (gasp) host the much-hyped Virginia Tech Hokies in a major statement game at Rouge.

Of course, anyone who remembers LSU's last roadie to a Mississippi locale may think twice before booking a "W" against Sylvester Croom's Bulldogs. On the other hand, Matt Flynn did not start that game. Moving on...

I'm trying my best, yet I cannot even get excited for the California-Tennessee game, between a slightly above-average Pac-10 school and a slightly above-average (yet the most dangerous underdog in the country) SEC counterpart. Yet, we have no other games matching ranked teams. Are any of them likely to lose?

Our long national nightmare is over. Florida State will no longer play Miami in a made-for-TV opening night clash, instead, the supposedly resurging Seminoles (yes, I'm guilty, your honor) charge into Howard's old lair for a bout with the always intriguing Clemson Tigers. Labor Day Bobby just cannot stay away, but this year he may finally have a team worthy of the national spotlight. Let's face it, two BCS bowl appearances aside (both losses) FSU hasn't been FSU since an unfathomable late summer flogging in Chapel Hill in 2001 and their once-invincibility at home (The OBC never won there) crashed shortly thereafter. For those of my generation, who grew up with Florida State always in the Top 5, the last FIVE years have provided something of an education. Namely, dominance is not guaranteed to last forever and overall conference improvement will diminish if not displace the once-King.

Shouldn't this crew reach 9-0, and don't they always topple Virginia Tech? Winning in Gainesville is always dicey, only special (1993, 1999) rosters do it. Given the debacle of their last trip to Death Valley, one would think the 'Noles are primed and focused this time. Of course, their offense has yet to resemble the Mark Richt-juggernaut that rolled up 500 yards without issue since the humiliation Oklahoma sent the Georgia coach in-waiting out the door in the 2000 title game. Chris Rix failed to reach even the levels of Thad Busby, let alone Charlie Ward, Danny Kannell, and Chris Weinke.

It seems this post has degenerated into an FSU preview, yet what else is there to say? Five TD tosses for Colt Brennan at the unwatchable hour of 12:05 AM on the East Coast? Purdue traveling to the Glass Bowl is interesting. Despite not making the best of a two-year absence from Ohio State and Michigan, the Boilermakers may have the stuff to play on January 1, 2008. Joe Tiller likely needs a nine-win season to maintain job security, and Curtis Painter could challenge Chad Henne for All-Big 10 status. A good start against the usually formidable (remember 24-6 at State College some years back?) Rockets is requisite however.

Staying in the Big 10, Coach Tressel's old school arrives at the Shoe to commence the OSU faithful's therapy sessions made necessary by a 41-14 destruction at the hands of Florida. As already displayed, I don't see OSU, despite an All-America talent at running back, rising above the Top 15 in the country. I cannot, though, pick an Ohio school to bounce them, either. As another has put it, Troy Smith is dead. The 2007 season will go a long way to fully ascertaining his legacy as perhaps the greatest Buckeye ever. If OSU rolls to another eleven win season (which would make five in six years), the memories of 3-0 (no explanation required) #10 will fade into the nothingness of a 4/14 outing in a muggy Glendale night. If eight or fewer wins result, we will truly know the special (particularly for an OSU QB) value of Smith.

Perhaps Michigan's greatest concern in the Appalachian State game is whether Coach Lloyd Carr will provide Mike Hart enough playing time to put up his first of many Heisman days. True, #20 will win the award against four opponents, but the PSU '94 precedent exists. Outside of a 63-14 a__-kicking of Ohio State, the marvelous first-team Penn State offense frequently found itself on the sidelines in the second half in decided ballgames, including, to their eternal regret, in Bloomington. RT2020 believes this helped cost Ki-Jana Carter the Heisman Trophy, awarded instead to another All-America back with greater numbers. May history repeat itself? These are the kind of games where a 200-yard day could get Hart some national attention, which he is going to need to wrestle away the trophy from RBs of higher notoriety.

Speaking of Michigan men, well once upon a time anyway, Jim Harbaugh makes his Stanford debut against UCLA, the latter is perhaps destined for an eleven win year whilst the former is likely destined for a fitty-point loss to USC. Will the Bruins slip up? A 13-9 bruising of #2 USC did a lot to erase their soft image, best exemplified in an inability to stop Edgerrin James in a championship dream-ending defeat in Coral Gables nine years ago. Few teams have underachieved like UCLA in the last decade, is a return to handicapped space parking required? Quips aside, the Rose Bowl inhabitants cannot drop this game, lest Pete Carroll become convinced he actually has to prepare for the Cardinal.

The last mildly interesting game for me is Ron Zook's Illini hosting Missouri in Champagne. Last year, Illinois attracted national attention with its "mere" seven-point loss to #1 Ohio State, and its flashy, quick backfield may improve quite a bit this autumn. If Juice Williams and the rest of the promising (Could they go 8-4? Yes.) Illini are going to have that breakthrough season, which would lead a few to go overboard and predict a 2008 conference title, beating the usually solid Tigers by a healthy margin will have to be that first step.

So, while Louisiana State and Florida State have the most interesting openers, we cannot, in all honestly, eagerly anticipate the first week. True, if LSU falls behind, the boys from Austin and Morgantown could snatch their Not Sugar ticket, and then we would have some drama. With the caveat that I've proven spectacularly wrong before, I see 2007 as perhaps the least volatile campaign since 2004. Both the Tigers and the Wolverines simply have the players and the schedules to reach N'Orleans. The weakness of the Big 12 (and their own schedule) removes Texas from consideration. I also don't buy that anyone in the Big East has the maturity to go unbeaten, either.

Shockingly, not a word on ole Southern Cal. Their first test to ESPN openly debating whether they could defeat 1995 Nebraska or 2001 Miami is just days away.

Eastern Kentucky: Start the Show

2007-08-27T13:30:00.000-07:00

Gentlemen, saddle up and destroy this team.

Analysis of Coach Rich Brooks (sigh) pregame presser follows:

"This is a very important game for us."

D___ straight, and not just to win either. Starting with Andre' Woodson the whole team needs to make it known that last year's Music City Bowl "championship" represented only the beginning.

On the Kentucky defense...
"I hope on third down they’ll be coming off the field and standing next to me on the sideline a little more often. I hope we’ll see a defense that’s more aggressive, tighter coverage, doing a better job of containing the running game, and just not spending as much time on the field. Those would be nice things to see."

Yeah, but Coach, we aren't in Gainesville (2006), Athens (2002), Tennessee (1998), or Baton Rouge (2006). In all honesty, UK has had issues with its defense since the 1950 Mythical (Thanks, Sagarin!!) National Championship team. Tim Couch could put up points under Hal Mumme's scheme and Artose Pinner could account for 2,000 total yards from scrimmage, yet the defense always, always rated as the worst feature of the football team. Not even Top 5 NFL draft choice Dewayne Robertson could lift the Cats out of the duldrums. In actuality, they ruined Dave Ragone's senior campaign at the 'Ville in '02, outside of that, well, let's not get into that Ohio University debacle. In lieu of championship athletes (even as the Kernel op-ed page likely still openly pines for K-State 1995-2003 tactics, i.e., the JUCO route), turnovers are a must. Forty-nine to nil beatdowns, not so much.

"I’m not certain what we’re going to see, to be honest."

Must resist jokes here. On another note, it shouldn't f______ matter, should it, sub-.500 career coach? Aaargh.

Woodson only bought you time, ex-NFL genius, do not embarrass the SEC by dropping this contest (or even letting EKU hang around), their "explosive" offense notwithstanding.

Yes, but do any of them scare you?

2007-08-26T15:58:00.000-07:00

A reporter from the Old Cranky Lady (reference: here) openly gushes about the quality and quantity of Southern California's tailback position:

"Few teams have ever collected more talent at one position. Each of the Trojans’ 10 tailbacks was a Super Prep All-American. Nine were Prep Star all-Americans. Seven were Parade all-Americans. Together, they were on 38 first-team all-American lists."

This graf, however, represents my favorite part:

"From the moment (Hershel) Dennis arrived on campus, he was behind somebody. First, it was Sultan McCullough and Justin Fargas. Then it was Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Now, as a sixth-year senior, he is fighting off Chauncey Washington and C. J. Gable."

Firstly, all credit to the young man for sticking it out in a tough environment. Admittedly, though, I was in the other room, did Lee Jenkins just compare Washington and Gable to the horses of 2004-05, a. k. a., Thunder and Lightning? Forgive me, I am not able to follow the great game of college football terribly closely from my present location, but didn't USC close the season, presumably with a very similar stable of runners, getting stuffed by UCLA and quitting on the run against M-eee-chigan?

We term this "Student Body Right"? In the days of Allen, the first White, Bell, Davis, Sam-Bam, the One Who Shall Not Be Named, and Garrett, the Trojans stared down dominant run defenses (usually in Pasadena at the onset of a new calendar year) and hammered away. True, Reggie Bush and LenDale White performed comparably just two years ago, but we've seen this current crop, and until further notice, none measure up.

Hey, it's good to have confidence...

"'We’re stacked everywhere,' the sophomore tailback Allen Bradford said. 'It doesn’t really make a difference what position you play.'"

So prove it. Win all of your road games instead of gazing off with glazed eyes as the Beavers and Bruins combine to wreck your championship dreams. Personally, I don't understand this fascination with extreme depth. Would you rather have one Darren McFadden or ten "Super Prep" All America backs? One Mike Hart or five guys buried on the depth chart that were once lauded as "best in the nation"? I think the point is made.

Why is the RBBC an issue?

"Last season, U.S.C. tried to please everybody, using one of those ill-fated running back committees. No player averaged more than 60 yards rushing a game, and the Trojans failed to crack 100 yards on the ground against Oregon State and U.C.L.A., losing both games."

Football, dear readers, for all its sophistication, remains quite simple: run the ball well and win. Now, last year's Rose Bowl (and most of OSU's 2006 Big 10 Championship season) provided a textbook case of how to win sans a superior ground attack, yet I'll have you note that neither team won the national title. (What of Florida? Did they dominate games on the ground?--ed With Tebow, yes, to some extent, plus their superior athletes on defense carried the spread offense across the Glendale finish line)

Mr. Jenkins finishes with a flourish:

"How the coaches sort out their crowded backfield this season — and who they choose as their every-down guy — could determine whether the Trojans win the national championship."

Perhaps one day folks will realize that All America in high school does not always translate at the next level. Most of these backs dominated outclassed competition--no longer. UCLA proved last year that their supposedly more laid-back bunch could roll up USC's ground attack post-Bush/White. They will run away from none of the SEC's finest in a hypothetical Not Sugar bout in N'Orleans.

The fact that Southern California informs us of their incredible depth should also make us aware of a dirty little secret: none of them truly stand out from the others. They failed to adequately bludgeon D-lines last season and need a statement game (200 yards or more rushing on a warm September night in Lincoln, maybe?) to justify all this "greatest backfield depth EVER!" hype.

Many moons ago, Florida State once boasted three or four of the top QBs in all the land, yet easily understood that only one could actually call out the signals. Rather than bragging about holding nine of the, say, twenty-five highest "rated" tailbacks in America, the Trojans should save their scholarships for more needed players.

Like perhaps an offensive line, as opposed to the one physically overwhelmed by UCLA. Just a thought.

Preseason Poll (Week of 19 AUG)

2007-08-16T08:21:00.000-07:00

1. Louisiana State
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Southern California
6. Wisconsin
7. West Virginia
8. Florida State
9. Georgia
10. UCLA
11. Nebraska
12. Louisville
13. Oklahoma
14. Rutgers
15. Penn State
16. Tennessee
17. Virginia Tech
18. Ohio State
19. Boise State
20. South Carolina
21. California
22. Auburn
23. Oregon State
24. Arkansas
25. Miami (FL)

Comments:

The Tigers have a tailor-made schedule to reach the championship game (gotta beat FLA, possibly twice) and then could play before their partisans at the Superdome. Michigan can also punch its ticket with a win against Bucky, a team they've handled since the mid-1990s. Defending national champ Florida is perhaps given a generous rating, but their offense should have more explosiveness and Urban Meyer can find a way around the loss of nine defensive starters (for awhile and to a point). Rounding out the Top 5, Texas and USC. Colt McCoy is probably the most important player in the Big 12 (sorry, Sam Keller), if he remains healthy, the 'Horns should down the Sooners for the third straight year. The Trojans, as discussed previously, are hampered by a monster schedule, even if Notre Dame and Oregon don't look terribly fearsome at the moment.

With the exception of UCLA, the next group of teams have a decent chance to capture one of the two slots for N'Orleans. Think Wisconsin's journey to Columbus poses a problem? Think again. Ohio State has not defeated the Badgers at home since 1996 (a 14-10 nailbiter, losses in 1999, 2001, and 2004), we'll see if that was just Alvarez magic. The Mountaineers are a perpetual tease, still, I look for them to crunch Louisville in Morgantown, but even going unbeaten does not a BCS title game guarantee. Florida State, perhaps, is poised to return to at least 1989-1991 form, and Georgia is a sleeper pick to win the SEC for the third time in six campaigns.

Nos. 11-15 intrigue, but I see too many holes for each though. Nebraska may clip USC, but not Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. Louisville has a Heisman candidate at quarterback, but a loss to West Virginia seems likely. Penn State and Oklahoma are both beset with quarterback issues, and Rutgers will have a difficult time reaching the heights of 2006, nonetheless they will hover in the Top 15.

Ohio State, however, will not. Road night games at Seattle and State College (OSU: 2-4 at Beaver Stadium since 1994, twice gagging double-digit leads) are cause for severe concern, plus there's a Tressel shortcoming against Wisconsin (1-4) and the prospect of the most motivated Michigan team to take the field in four years. Chris Perry and Braylon Edwards had their way in a convincing 35-21 victory of then-#2 OSU in 2003, look for Mike Hart and Mario Mannigham (irrespective of what this guy says, the best WR in the Big 10) to perform similarly. Virginia Tech, as Pat Forde said on the radio the other day, always seems to drop a winnable game at home, plus LSU is on the schedule this year.

South Carolina could prove to "the Leap," as ESPN's Bill Simmons would put it, as Spurrier's guys nearly got Florida in Gainesville last season. This is year three of the project, and the deeper Gamecocks should return to the Top 20 nationally. I am not a buyer in Cal, something about getting waxed in Knoxville, blowing a conference game to Arizona(!), and failing to play an effective fourth quarter against USC... just rubs me the wrong way. Yes, the Tennessee game goes West this year, but M-Lynch will not participate. Ditto Auburn, as I lost a great deal of respect for the team that got caught looking ahead to Florida (whom they beat) and allowed an essentially-QB-less Razorback team to run them into the ground. Gone went BCS title dreams. Darren McFadden alone puts Arkansas in the Top 25, provided they don't sleep on Kentucky (shhhh).

Seven SEC schools make the Twenty-five, but I think LSU's defense, even without All America Landry (now in D. C.) will suffocate enough offenses to allow their new starting quarterback, to say, post more than three points against Auburn and ten against Florida. Not that such a performance would necessarily prevent Matt Flynn from going #1 in the NFL Draft, ahem. We should say this, however: LSU is in a dangerous position, they cannot lose because all of their key games are in Baton Rouge. Even Michigan with its favorable schedule, travels to Camp Randall. Florida could lose to LSU and get them in a rematch on a neutral field. Wisconsin conceivably could lose to Ohio State yet beat Michigan, though, as we've seen, a one-loss Big 10 team has very little chance at playing for a title (Exhibit A: 2006 Michigan). USC can most afford a loss, unfortunately they are the most likely Top 5 team to lose three times.

D-Mac's to Lose?

2007-08-16T04:27:00.000-07:00

After a scintillating sophomore season capped off by the Doak Walker Award and a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, Arkansas tailback Darren McFadden (D-Mac) would seem the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in 2007. My question is not to his talent, but his team, as in, will the Hogs win enough games? Can they prevent LSU or Auburn from winning the SEC West in their place? I say no. Shockingly, the experts at ESPN.com disagree.

"McFadden has the numbers and the style to keep voters happy. Only two backs in SEC history have ever rushed for 1,000 yards in their freshman and sophomore seasons: Herschel Walker and McFadden. The Arkansas tailback accounted for touchdowns in four different ways last season: 14 as a runner, three as a passer, one as a receiver and one as a kick returner. If McFadden can duplicate this performance and the Hogs, coming off one of the crazier soap-opera offseasons in years, can get back to the SEC title game, he will be tough to beat."

Bruce Feldman brings up a good point: any comparison to Herschel Walker is outstanding for a player's cause. I simply dissent from his implicit premise that McFadden will get the back to the SEC title game. If he does, I will strongly endorse his candidacy. It took four touchdown passes from Troy Smith in a 42-39 victory of #2 Michigan for me to finally rank the eventual Heisman winner over D-Mac.

If not Darren McFadden, then...

CONTENDERS (as ranked by ESPN's panel):

1. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
2. John David Booty, QB, USC
3. Brian Brohm, QB, LOU
4. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
5. Mike Hart, RB, MICH

For either Slaton or his quarterback, Pat White, to even remotely come close to the award, West Virginia must go undefeated in the regular season. Must. Also, not disappearing in the latter part of the year would help too. For all its talent, Rich Rodriguez's team never looked the same after a stinging loss in Lousiville. True, they knocked off Rutgers, but by that point had forfeited status as a BCS bowl contender.

A USC quarterback, again? Maybe. There's no denying Booty looked like Palmer and Leinart against the Michigan secondary, but there is no hiding his rather pedestrian game against UCLA, either. Another factor against him? USC is blessed with tremendous depth at QB, which could lead Pete Carroll, after a Booty washout in Lincoln, to give Sanchez a shot. I'm not a Booty believer just yet.

Brian Brohm? Same criteria as Slaton/White, must not lose a game, which means no second-half egg against Rutgers that cost Ohio State a national championship. Boost? Andre Woodson has received a good deal of publicity following Maisel's bold proclamation, whipping UK at their house will do a lot for his candidacy.

Colt Brennan must post Andre Ware-type numbers to even merit a place in New York City. Very few people will watch his games, even though he could make a Pro Bowl or two later in his career. Possibly the nation's best passer, but the lack of a major conference schedule (and TV time) will not yield him the Heisman.

My pick to win the trophy is Mike Hart of Michigan, the school's first serious RB Heisman candidate since Tyrone Wheatley in 1993 (yes, that didn't end well). Michigan is out of excuses this season. Notwithstanding a nasty night affair in Madison, the other important contests are at the Big House: Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State. Assuming their defense retains 85% of its 2006 form (the front seven, that is), the Wolverines are two touchdowns better than all of those teams. Hart will rush for 150-200 yards against all of them, and it is hard to fathom the best player from last year's Epic in Columbus ending his career 0-4 versus the Buckeyes.

Darkhorses?

Ian Johnson of Boise State must run for 2,000 yards, and even then, too many running backs are ahead of him. The Blue Turfers may record another perfect record, but it's asking too much for McFadden, Slaton, and Hart to slip up. Chad Henne is an interesting case, although his expected All-Big 10 season may have the net effect of costing Hart the Heisman Trophy. Clearly, he must lead Michigan past Ohio State. If he does that, possibly, if not the first eleven games will matter very little.

Interesting that only one of the panel's nominees is a sophomore or a freshman (Colt McCoy, QB, Texas--and last at that) despite recent trips to the show by underclassmen McFadden and Reggie Bush (2004).

I would add two names: Florida QB Tim Tebow and Michigan WR Mario Manningham. With the departure of Calvin Johnson, Manningham, who exploded onto the national scene during Michigan's 47-21 demolition of then-#2 Notre Dame last year, is certainly the best wideout in the country. He may in fact also prove the best player, but absent Howard/Woodson-like effectiveness on returns, few voters are going to tap a receiver. Tebow's versatility helped the Gators to a national title a year ago, now, as a super sophomore, he may take the next leap, though he's not nearly as polished a passer as either Grossman (2001) or Wuerffel (1995, 1996), yet. Nevertheless, if Florida stays in the Top 5 most of the year, Tebow may well take the Southeastern bloc of Heisman voters.

In 2006, everyone assumed the race was Brady Quinn's to lose, and, owing much to Notre Dame's humiliation at the hands of Michigan, he lost it to Troy Smith of Ohio State. McFadden does not have the golden helmet to assist his cause, in fact, the Razorbacks do not regularly achieve a national following. If Arkansas is out of the title chase early, he's going to need 2,000 yards and a lot more touchdowns than last season. I think Hart can get it done with 1,800 yards and twelve victories, though an average-per-carry north of five would do much for his cause. Michigan fans slightly concerned that an impressive QB/RB/WR combo might spell doom for #20's odds, look only to Ohio State, 1995. Terry Glenn played perhaps the finest wide receiver season I've yet to witness (for eleven games anyway) and Eddie George easily won the Heisman Trophy (thanks, Orlando Pace).

West Virginia always trips up somewhere, exit Slaton and White. Louisville does not figure to challenge for the championship, exit Brohm.

Absolute darkhorse: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State. Perhaps the only player standing between OSU and 8-4, this phenomenally skilled back could carry a 10-1 team into Ann Arbor with 1,600 and twenty scores (if he can cease fumbling long enough). Given his ordinary sporting cast, Wells will merit serious consideration if he stays healthy and performs to his capabilities, absent a sterling line, quarterback, or receiving option.

Prediction:

1. Mike Hart, RB, MICH
2. Darren McFadden, RB, ARK
3. Colt Brennan, QB, HAW
4. Chris Wells, RB, OSU
5. Tim Tebow, QB, FLA
6. Mario Manningham, WR, MICH
7. John David Booty, QB, USC
8. Steve Slaton, RB, WVA
9. Andre' Woodson, QB, UK (homer alert)
10. Ian Johnson, RB, BSU

Would Hart have a chance against a swarming Bayou Bengal defense on the Superdome floor, however? Umm...

2007 UK Prognostication

2007-08-16T03:37:00.001-07:00

The Road to Further Respectability:

v. Eastern Kentucky
v. Kent State
v. Louisville
@ Arkansas
v. Florida Atlantic
@ South Carolina
v. LSU
v. Florida
v. Mississippi State
@ Vanderbilt
@ Georgia
v. Tennessee

Should win: EKU, KSU, FA, MSU

Excellent, four-and-oh, where do I sign up? Seriously, all four games are at home, and while Florida Atlantic may boast better athletes they're not as formidable on the road. Look for Andre' Woodson to boost his numbers against this contingent, especially early.

Could win: LOU, SoCaro, Vandy

Louisville has owned the Cats for some time now, but without Michael Bush, I think they are ripe for the picking, especially with Woodson, especially at home. On a personal note: I attended both South Carolina games in my four years, both times the crafty Lou Holtz pulled out a victory at night. I admire their defense a great deal, but UK should have a chance here. Vanderbilt, by a country mile, is the top academic school in the conference, which usually translates into football futility. Recently, however, they've made strides. True, this is a road game, but the All America quarterback can get it done here.

Underdog: ARK, TEN

Darren McFadden is probably worth tanking the 2006 NFL season for any number of teams with no shot to hold the Lombardi Trophy in February. He will return to New York for the Heisman ceremony (though he won't win it). Nonetheless, I don't see Arkansas reprising their near miracle run through the SEC; LSU and Florida delivered reality checks to close the year, and the Hogs even fell to the Mystery Men from Madison. It's a roadie, and D-Mac could run for 250 yards... at the end of three quarters. Still, UK has a credible shot here.

ESPN Radio's Colin Cowherd, blogosphere favorite, thinks Tennesee is treading backward, losing close games, underachieving, etc. I don't know if I agree, given how close the Vols were to upending Florida and their super performance down in Athens last year. Besides, UK is always an underdog in this "clash," but with the setting of Commonwealth Stadium there is no reason why UK shouldn't put up a real fight here.

Significant Underdog: LSU, FLA

Two weeks running, yikes. Fortunately, both are at home, where, alas, UK has a history (LSU 2001, 2002; FLA 2003) of honking winnable home games against the current top-two of the SEC. Both schools boast incredible speed and athleticism, but both are breaking in new QBs, though Tebow may not fit that description entirely. Woodson's Heisman campaign ends with these two games.

This Will Not End Well: GA

It will require substantial maturity for the Cats not to get taken behind the woodshed in Athens. Georgia looks to return to their 2002-2005 form, after an uneven run last year. Good thing: it is the penultimate game of the season, which means a thirty-point shellacking will not scar the team and spike an otherwise promising year. Bad thing: Tennessee is next, and UK may need that one for a New Year's Day bowl.

Forecast: I've haven't been this optimistic in years. Despite my antipathy toward Coach Brooks, this team may win nine games (or more) in spite of his inferior coaching. South Carolina and Arkansas are the two biggest games of the year, both are on hostile terrain, and both rank slightly above UK in the SEC pecking order. One win is an absolute must, two would probably rate a bowl upgrade.

v. Eastern Kentucky (+20)
v. Kent State (+14)
v. Louisville (-4)
@ Arkansas (+7)
v. Florida Atlantic (+15)
@ South Carolina (-10)
v. LSU (-21)
v. Florida (-13)
v. Mississippi State (+31)
@ Vanderbilt (+14)
@ Georgia (-35)
v. Tennessee (-3)

6-6. Ugh. What about all that "optimism"? Well, Louisville still has an advantage in pure talent, to say nothing of LSU and Florida--and those are home tilts. I like the Cats in Fayetteville, but not Columbia. Coach Spurrier's recruiting classes will prove just a step or two away from the SEC elite this season. I think Tennessee will disappoint the most, particulary since the Vols don't seem ticketed for a big year.

Will this warrant a bowl? I don't know, but it starkly illustrates the prodigious challenge ahead of UK Football even in a year with a possible All-SEC performer at QB and eight(!) home games. They might prove just a few plays away from 9-3, but I don't see enough right now to warrant a better year than the one prior.

Andre' Woodson: All America Quarterback

2007-08-16T03:20:00.000-07:00

At least according to Ivan Maisel, senior CFB writer at the Worldwide Leader.

Grafs unscrupulously lifted from UK site follow:

"Woodson completed 63 percent of his passes last season, good for 3,515 yards and 31 touchdowns, while leading the Southeastern Conference in passing yardage, total offense, and TD passes. He guided the Wildcats to their best season in 22 years, including eight wins and a championship of the Music City Bowl, in which he was named the game’s Most Valuable Player. He enters the 2007 season with an active school-record streak of 162 consecutive passes without an interception."

RT2020: How do you know it's a UK press release? "Championship of the Music City Bowl" is a tell tale sign.

"That’s wonderful. I just hope he’s named that at the end of the year,' Coach Rich Brooks said. 'That would be wonderful. That would mean that he did well and we did well.'"

RT2020: This kid saved my job last season. I cannot believe I am still here. I cannot believe UK hired a sub-.500 record college coach whose most notable game commenced with an 80-yard TD run straight up the middle by All America Ki-Jana Carter in the 1994 Rose Bowl.

During my time as student (2001-04), unheralded tailback Artose Pinner provided some much needed pride to a football program sent reeling by the ignominious departure of once-touted Hal Mumme, the painful twin losses to LSU at home, and, ultimately, the resignation of another promising head coach, Guy Morriss, who left us for Baylor. I think that Andre' Woodson has provided similar excitement for his class of UK faithful. Pinner, most forget, earned 2002 SEC Player of the Year honors, forcibly taking the award from the 2001 Heisman Trophy runner-up.

Now, he's not going to win the Heisman Trophy, but Woodson should push for All-SEC honors, and maybe, just maybe, UK can finish a season ahead of all but two teams in the SEC Eastern division. Heck, that might make for a swell New Year's Day bowl treat with Ohio State.

RT2020: Why Don't You Love USC?

2007-08-16T02:19:00.000-07:00

Predictable.

First, kudos to Mel Kiper Jr., for dissenting from the crowd (albeit wrongly).

Don't give me wrong, I have great respect for Pete Carroll and the program he has built since 2002. Their prowess in top games, including another Rose Bowl victory over Michigan last season, is undeniable. No other program in the Pac-10 measures up on any kind of a consistent basis. I think another return to Pasadena is certainly achievable for this now perennial national championship contender.

Yet, not to N'Orleans for the Big One.

My two problems with USC derive from immaturity and the all-important schedule. Here is the latter:

v. Idaho
@ Nebraska
v. Washington State
@ Washington
v. Stanford
v. Arizona
@ Notre Dame
@ Oregon
v. Oregon State
@ California
@ Arizona State
v. UCLA

Even without a Pac-10 Championship Game, quite a formidable slate, including possibly the nastiest stretch in the country from October 20 thru November 10. I'll give them Idaho, Stanford (perhaps by sixty), and Arizona, as three easy victories, all at the Coliseum.

Next group: Washington State, Washington and Arizona State

Don't laugh, although it's not the Southeastern Conference (the hardest games to win in college football are night SEC roadies, or if you're Ohio State, any SEC opponents at all, natch), both of these ballgames are under the lights. USC should win both, but a slip up at either one is certainly possible, in part because this year's group has not earned a 2005-esque aura. Arizona State brings a new coach, a victor of many big games including two national championships. Washington State should also give the Trojans a battle.

Verdict: 6-0

Next up: UCLA and Oregon State

Revenge. The Bruins stymied USC's seemingly inevitable march to Glendale in a 13-9 upset that ultimately permitted Florida to reach the Not Fiesta game. Oregon State built a lead and held on at the goaline to hang the first Pac-10 loss on Southern Cal since an OT loss in Berkeley, in early 2003. Both teams must face the Coliseum this year, however, and although one could pull it off, USC has defended their home territory since 2002.

Verdict: 8-0

Last: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, and California

Here, my friends, the road to Bourbon Street ends. All FOUR of the aforementioned DESPERATELY need to prove their worth in big games, i.e. beating a tough opponent at home. The Huskers have been searching for their identity since a 62-38 debacle in Boulder (coupled with a 37-14 embarrassment at the Rose Bowl shortly thereafter) six years ago; they need this one. The Irish, returning to glory since 1993, narrowly missed scoring the upset in 2005, but have lacked a WOW victory since their opening game upset of defending co-national champion Michigan... in 1998(!); they need this one. Oregon and California are the two second-tier programs in the Pac-10, neither has beaten USC in the last three years; they need this game almost as much as the still-recovering bastions of Lincoln and South Bend.

Brad Edwards, the BCS guru from ESPN.com argues that USC can sustain one loss and still qualify for the BCS Championship Game. Well, all right. Except that West Virginia, Michigan, Texas, to name three, have excellent schedules for running the table. Furthermore, we return to the issue of maturity.

In the clutch, with everything on the line against a mediocre team, these guys flunked miserably last season in their devastating loss to UCLA. I understand that John David Booty returns at the controls and that their defense sacks the quarterback and forces buckets of turnovers, all to the good.

I just believe that very few college football teams are good enough to survive so many night road games, particularly against sufficiently motivated opposition. They will lose at least two games and maybe three. In order of likelihood:

1) @ Oregon - USC will come fired up for the Huskers after dispatching Idaho, Notre Dame always focuses them, and Cal, as Edwards predicts, will determine the Pac-10 champ. Eugene, however, is where they could get ambushed. Don't say I didn't warn you.

2) @ California - Coach Jeff Tedford risks falling out of Top 20 national status if they don't start at least holding serve against USC.

3) @ Nebraska - They're a better team than #5.

4) Oregon State - I certainly expect USC to triumph here, but cannot ignore the second-most talented team in the conference.

5) @ Notre Dame - Memories linger from a fourth-and-long fly pattern, a Heisman-worthy assist on a quarterback sneak, and ND's inability to beat upper echelon competition. The Irish probably make it interesting, as usual in South Bend, but USC is a much stronger team.

Caveat: In 2002, the University of Miami stared at a similar schedule, at least concerning road matches at #3 and #4 of 2001's last poll, yet neither the Gators nor the Vols lived up to preseason hype, and that Hurricane crew was playing for history.

UCLA showed how to punish this team, and its hidden weakness (ground attack, post-Bush and White) will rear its ugly head in Lincoln and Eugene. Of course, the inconsistency of the Golden Bears will still afford the Trojans an opportunity to defend their conference title, which they will do in a statement game.

Summation: 10-2 (8-1) and a Rose Bowl bid.

So RT2020, who do you like?

Stay tuned...